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NIK ZAFRI BIN ABDUL MAJID, CONSULTANT/TRAINER
Email: nikzafri@yahoo.com, nikzafri@gmail.com
http://www.nikzafri.blogspot.my

Kelantanese, Alumni of Sultan Ismail College Kelantan (SICA), Diploma (Management), IT Competency Cert, Certified Written English Professional US. Has participated in many seminars/conferences (local/ international) in the capacity of trainer/lecturer and participant.

Affiliations :- Council Member of Gerson Lehrman Group NY, Institute of Quality Malaysia, Malaysian Institute of Management, Malaysian Occupational Safety and Health Professionals Association, Auditor ISO 9000 IRCAUK, Auditor OHSAS 18000 (SIRIM and STS) /EMS ISO 14000:2004 and Construction Quality Assessment System (CONQUAS, CIDB (Now BCA) Singapore),

* Possesses 26 years of experience/hands-on in the multi-modern management & technical disciplines (systems & methodologies) such as Knowledge Management (Hi-Impact Management/ICT Solutions), Quality (TQM/ISO), Safety Health Environment, Civil & Building (Construction), Manufacturing, Motivation & Team Building, HR, Marketing/Branding, Business Process Reengineering, Economy/Stock Market, Contracts/Project Management, Finance & Banking, etc. He was employed to international bluechips involving in national/international megaprojects such as Balfour Beatty Construction/Knight Piesold & Partners UK, MMI Insurance Group Australia, Hazama Corporation (Hazamagumi) Japan (with Mitsubishi Corporation, JA Jones US, MMCE and Ho-Hup) and Sunway Construction Berhad (The Sunway Group of Companies). Among major projects undertaken : Pergau Hydro Electric Project, KLCC Petronas Twin Towers, LRT Tunnelling, KLIA, Petronas Refineries Melaka, Putrajaya Government Complex, Sistem Lingkaran Lebuhraya Kajang (SILK), Mex Highway, KLIA1, KLIA2 etc. Once serviced SMPD Management Consultants as Associate Consultant cum Lecturer for Diploma in Management, Institute of Supervisory Management UK/SMPD JV. Currently – Associate/Visiting Consultants/Facilitators, Advisors for leading consulting firms (local and international) including project management. To name a few – Noma SWO Consult, Amiosh Resources, Timur West Consultant Sdn. Bhd., TIJ Consultants Group (Malaysia and Singapore) and many others.

* Ex-Resident Weekly Columnist of Utusan Malaysia (1995-1998) and have produced more than 100 articles related to ISO-9000– Management System and Documentation Models, TQM Strategic Management, Occupational Safety and Health (now OHSAS 18000) and Environmental Management Systems ISO 14000. His write-ups/experience has assisted many students/researchers alike in module developments based on competency or academics and completion of many theses. Once commended by the then Chief Secretary to the Government of Malaysia for his diligence in promoting and training the civil services (government sector) based on “Total Quality Management and Quality Management System ISO-9000 in Malaysian Civil Service – Paradigm Shift Scalar for Assessment System”

Among Nik Zafri’s clients : Adabi Consumer Industries Sdn. Bhd, (MRP II, Accounts/Credit Control) The HQ of Royal Customs and Excise Malaysia (ISO 9000), Veterinary Services Dept. Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), The Institution of Engineers Malaysia (Aspects of Project Management – KLCC construction), Corporate HQ of RHB (Peter Drucker's MBO/KRA), NEC Semiconductor - Klang Selangor (Productivity Management), Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia (ISO 9000), State Secretarial Office Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), Hidrological Department KL (ISO 9000), Asahi Kluang Johor(System Audit, Management/Supervisory Development), Tunku Mahmood (2) Primary School Kluang Johor (ISO 9000), Consortium PANZANA (HSSE 3rd Party Audit), Lecturer for Information Technology Training Centre (ITTC) – Authorised Training Center (ATC) – University of Technology Malaysia (UTM) Kluang Branch Johor, Kluang General Hospital Johor (Management/Supervision Development, Office Technology/Administration, ISO 9000 & Construction Management), Kahang Timur Secondary School Johor (ISO 9000), Sultan Abdul Jalil Secondary School Kluang Johor (Islamic Motivation and Team Building), Guocera Tiles Industries Kluang Johor (EMS ISO 14000), MNE Construction (M) Sdn. Bhd. Kota Tinggi Johor (ISO 9000 – Construction), UITM Shah Alam Selangor (Knowledge Management/Knowledge Based Economy /TQM), Telesystem Electronics/Digico Cable(ODM/OEM for Astro – ISO 9000), Sungai Long Industries Sdn. Bhd. (Bina Puri Group) - ISO 9000 Construction), Secura Security Printing Sdn. Bhd,(ISO 9000 – Security Printing) ROTOL AMS Bumi Sdn. Bhd & ROTOL Architectural Services Sdn. Bhd. (ROTOL Group) – ISO 9000 –Architecture, Bond M & E (KL) Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9000 – Construction/M & E), Skyline Telco (M) Sdn. Bhd. (Knowledge Management),Technochase Sdn. Bhd JB (ISO 9000 – Construction), Institut Kefahaman Islam Malaysia (IKIM – ISO 9000 & Internal Audit Refresher), Shinryo/Steamline Consortium (Petronas/OGP Power Co-Generation Plant Melaka – Construction Management and Safety, Health, Environment), Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Negotiation Skills), Association for Retired Intelligence Operatives of Malaysia (Cyber Security – Arpa/NSFUsenet, Cobit, Till, ISO/IEC ISMS 27000 for Law/Enforcement/Military), T.Yamaichi Corp. (M) Sdn. Bhd. (EMS ISO 14000) LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd., (Lean Scoreboard (including a full development of System-Software-Application - MSC Malaysia & Six Sigma) PJZ Marine Services Sdn. Bhd., (Safety Management Systems and Internal Audit based on International Marine Organization Standards) UNITAR/UNTEC (Degree in Accountacy – Career Path/Roadmap) Cobrain Holdings Sdn. Bhd.(Managing Construction Safety & Health), Speaker for International Finance & Management Strategy (Closed Conference), Pembinaan Jaya Zira Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9001:2008-Internal Audit for Construction Industry & Overview of version 2015), Straits Consulting Engineers Sdn. Bhd. (Full Integrated Management System – ISO 9000, OHSAS 1800 and EMS ISO 14000 for Civl/Structural/Geotechnical Consulting), Malaysia Management & Science University (MSU – (Managing Business in an Organization), Innoseven Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 MSPR8 – Awareness and Internal Audit (Construction), ISO 9001:2008 and 2015 overview for the Construction Industry), Kemakmuran Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 - Signages/Wayfinding - Project Quality Plan and Construction Method Statement ), Amiosh Resources - (1) Lembaga Tabung Haji - Flood ERP (2) WNA Consultants - DID/JPS -Flood Risk Assessment and Management Plan - Prelim, Conceptual Design, Interim and Final Report etc. (3) Tunnel Fire Safety - Fire Risk Assessment Report - Design Fire Scenario), Safety, Health and Environmental Management Plans leading construction/property companies/corporations in Malaysia. Timur West Consulting (1) Business Methodology and System (2) Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) ISO/IEC 27001:2013 for Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya ISMS/Audit/Risk/ITP Technical Team

* Has appeared for 10 consecutive series in “Good Morning Malaysia RTM TV1’ Corporate Talk Segment discussing on ISO 9000/14000 in various industries. For ICT, his inputs garnered from his expertise have successfully led to development of work-process e-enabling systems in the environments of intranet, portal and interactive web design especially for the construction and manufacturing. Some of the end products have won various competitions of innovativeness, quality, continual-improvements and construction industry award at national level. He has also in advisory capacity – involved in development and moderation of websites, portals and e-profiles for mainly corporate and private sectors, public figures etc. He is also one of the recipients for MOSTE Innovation for RFID use in Electronic Toll Collection in Malaysia.

Note :


TO SEE ALL ARTICLES

ON THE"LABEL" SECTION BELOW (RIGHT SIDE COLUMN), YOU CAN CLICK ON ANY TAG - TO READ ALL ARTICLES ACCORDING TO ITS CATEGORY (E.G. LABEL : CONSTRUCTION) OR GO TO THE VERY END OF THIS BLOG AND CLICK "Older Posts"

Monday, June 09, 2008

nikzafri wrote:
I'm not really worried about what this news is telling us - but I'm 'a bit' concerned on the USD performance - read the news about USD currency - not conventional economics.

Why am I worried? Read my original post here. If something is not done on USD current performance, then other currencies will be effected, when others are effected, then the pricing of everything will be effected, when pricing is effected, then economy will somehow be effected and of course all of us will feel it. Hedging can be one of the cause and the mortgage crisis may also become another - when lenders want to play too safe and not taking any risk.


nikzafri wrote:
Ask a forex trader (those who trade using USD) or a banker (esp. international banks) or local company linked (investment wise) to the US, they'll tell you how this subprime mortgage crisis effects the stock markets all over the world!

It would start with the USD value getting hurt due to the too much dependance on subprime sector and housing market. The USD will start declining further as such as the lenders starting to charge higher and more borrowers couldn't afford to pay the loans and risk facing legal charges even the lenders promised refinancing (be careful, you could end up in more trouble if you refinance esp. Predatory Lenders)


nikzafri wrote:
Yes, it doesn't (the relationship between Malaysia stock market performance and the US economy) - because stock prices are a determinant of several factors operating on a given day - it's still about supply and demand. Thus it is technically wrong to assume it's due to one factor that is - concerns over US subprime market. So, we're quite clear that the market current underperformance has; in principle; nothing to do directly with sub-prime mortgate crisis in the United States.

But why it is still effected? Why the concerns? Coincidence? No..it can't be as the WORLD stock markets are encountering the same thing.


It gets better....

The Star Business - 10/12/07 - Monday

US dollar woes far from over

IN PERSPECTIVE
By BALJEET GREWAL

CONSIDER this – 2000 years ago, Rome was running a trade shortfall equivalent to 3% of its total economy, one of the many factors that led to the empire’s eventual downfall.

Fifty years ago, Brazil had a massive trade deficit, which were critical to its decline – the currency was battered over and over again.

Eight years ago, the tiger economies of Asia were plunged into a currency crisis, due to big domestic and over-reliance on foreign capital.

Today, international bodies assert that if a country’s trade deficit exceeds 4.5% of its gross deficit product (GDP), it’s a sign of real and present economic danger.

And yet the US economy continues to flaunt history and economics. At 6.4% of GDP (US$58.9bil), US trade deficits are perilous and significantly exceed those of Rome, Brazil or any Asian country one decade ago.

With the recent decline of the US dollar, there are good reasons to expect its slide to continue. Weak economic numbers triggered the fall of the greenback against slower housing starts, sluggish durable goods orders and lethargic consumer confidence – all point to a correction in the economy.

Compounding this is the US’ current account and budget deficit (3.5% of GDP) as well as the narrowing interest rate differential between the US and regional Asian countries. The impact of the subprime market and the widespread repercussions on consumer and corporate consumption exacerbates the dollar woes. All these factors combined offer the possibility of a prolonged economic malaise which continues to weigh down the dollar.

On the contrary, improved economic fundamentals in Asia (reduced external debt and budget deficits, higher international reserves, potential sovereign ratings upgrades and sizeable portfolio capital flows into Asia) have further supported regional currencies.

Further appreciation is on the cards, driven by dwindling US macro dynamics and slower growth expectations. Year-to-date 2006, the Malaysian ringgit has appreciated 5.52% against the greenback, the Singapore dollar at 5.97% and the Thai baht at 16.96%. More telling will be a likely renminbi appreciation fuelling regional currencies given China’s imminent economic reforms and move towards a flexible mechanism. Increasingly, the fortunes of economies in the region are being lifted, driven in many cases by demand from China.

While a weak dollar has seen currencies rally against a weary US economy, a significant correction in US macro data and serious negatives from a bourgeoning current account deficit may flip dynamics if left unchecked. The largest threat globally remains an unruly adjustment of the US dollar which could send regional markets into a downward spiral premised on a sell off in US dollar assets. The tumbling dollar will not only halt export growth but also see a flight away from capital markets. The US is still the single largest trading partner of most East Asian economies, and the Achilles heel of emerging Asia.

To offset this, East Asian countries will need to ensure that their currencies appreciate in unison and do not fluctuate sharply in value relative to one another given the weightage of trade. East Asian economies can withstand about 20% decline in the trade-weighted value of the dollar provided their currencies appreciate together – consensus show that the US dollar will need to decline by 30% in trade weightage terms for trade deficit to look palatable.

Collectively, Asian central banks hold about US$3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, most of it in dollars, and their large purchases of US dollar leading to 2006 have played a crucial role in curtailing the dollar's decline. If the US dollar is certain to fall further, central banks will sell dollar reserves or switch into other reserve currencies, which will exacerbate the dollar’s fall.

On the contrary, if Asian economies try to prevent their currencies from rising against the dollar to preserve export competitiveness, then the result could be broadbased weakness in Asian currencies and a rapid accumulation of currency reserves. Delicate balancing of foreign exchange reserves in this instance is crucial, especially given the trade impact; hence a communal appreciation will thwart any potential regional imbalance.

So, does a falling US dollar spell disaster for Asia? Not necessarily. Asian economies today are characterised by current account surpluses, large foreign exchange reserves and high rates of domestic savings. Equity markets across the region have been breaching all-time highs, reflecting the underlying strength of economies across the region and the perception that Asian stocks represent the best growth prospects at reasonable risk premium.

Thanks in part to the de-linking of Asia's capital markets from the US (more visible in the bond market), and a greater reliance in intra-regional trade (particularly with China), Asian markets seem well-placed to withstand the slowdown in the US that is expected in 2007.

These improved economic fundamentals will serve the region well over the next few years as the global economy slows and investors become more risk-averse. Nevertheless, the dip in Asian capital markets and a slide in Asian currencies against the US dollar in August this year, from the fallout of the subprime crisis serve as a reminder that the region is not immune to a change in global investor sentiment.

Meanwhile, positive overtures from an appreciating ringgit will continue to buoy domestic markets. The ringgit surged to its highest level post de-pegging, closing at 3.3177 (Nov 9) to the US dollar in line with strengthening regional currencies. The broadbased impact from a stronger ringgit is positive in general; especially in sectors which derive ringgit revenue with USD denominated costs.

Note: The author is group chief economist at Kuwait Finance House, Malaysia (KFH). KFH is one of the largest Islamic banks in the world and the first Islamic Bank with an Economic & Investment Research team.

----------------------

Since the author said "Not necessarily", this may also serves to mean as 'depends'.

Here are my personal hypotheses :

Despite it is understandable that trade surpluses could be the solution for future economic growth i.e. by means of amending policies not to be overdependent on foreign trade (only recently done), it may only work if country like US decide to run the corresponding trade deficit.

I may be wrong, but what if US decides to reduce the deficit?

Will it not create some 'not so nice' repercussions?

I'm not really being devil advocate here, but the gap of surpluses and deficits are not getting any smaller as we speak and it is foreseeable that the next issue will be misalignments in USD adjustment and definitely some 'not so nice' impact on global growth.

Of course, I'm neither suggesting that we should be adjusting exchange rates in Asian surplus counter nor pushing down demand and growth in deficit countries but rather I was kinda HOPING that Asian should assume a much bigger function in expanding their domestic demands and head towards becoming the catalyst to global growth (as soon as possible)

I am also yet to see two things : (anyone, please correct, I might have missed it)

a) EU coming in although much have been said by them and

b) adjustments on worldwide macroeconomic policies

When we deal with global financial management, we need a state-of-the art multilateral approaches to ensure a more predictable trading environment.

In global economy, every nation should not be left behind (or be put in the dark wondering what would be the future or what's next?) and they all deserve a more fair/equal treatment. IMF and UNCTAD should play more transparent roles rather than be seen as 'being used' to determine monetary policies and exchange rates.

The whole world is on the way towards interdependency, nobody should be ignored. Asia should no longer limit itself by merely quoting China as a benchmark of Asian or world growth, but other Asian nations as well.

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