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NIK ZAFRI BIN ABDUL MAJID,
CONSULTANT/TRAINER
Email: nikzafri@yahoo.com, nikzafri@gmail.com
https://nikzafri.wixsite.com/nikzafri

Kelantanese, Alumni of Sultan Ismail College Kelantan (SICA), IT Competency Cert, Certified Written English Professional US. Has participated in many seminars/conferences (local/ international) in the capacity of trainer/lecturer and participant.

Affiliations :- Network Member of Gerson Lehrman Group, Institute of Quality Malaysia, Auditor ISO 9000 IRCAUK, Auditor OHSMS (SIRIM and STS) /EMS ISO 14000 and Construction Quality Assessment System CONQUAS, CIDB (Now BCA) Singapore),

* Possesses almost 30 years of experience/hands-on in the multi-modern management & technical disciplines (systems & methodologies) such as Knowledge Management (Hi-Impact Management/ICT Solutions), Quality (TQM/ISO), Safety Health Environment, Civil & Building (Construction), Manufacturing, Motivation & Team Building, HR, Marketing/Branding, Business Process Reengineering, Economy/Stock Market, Contracts/Project Management, Finance & Banking, etc. He was employed to international bluechips involving in national/international megaprojects such as Balfour Beatty Construction/Knight Piesold & Partners UK, MMI Insurance Group Australia, Hazama Corporation (Hazamagumi) Japan (with Mitsubishi Corporation, JA Jones US, MMCE and Ho-Hup) and Sunway Construction Berhad (The Sunway Group of Companies). Among major projects undertaken : Pergau Hydro Electric Project, KLCC Petronas Twin Towers, LRT Tunnelling, KLIA, Petronas Refineries Melaka, Putrajaya Government Complex, Sistem Lingkaran Lebuhraya Kajang (SILK), Mex Highway, KLIA1, KLIA2 etc. Once serviced SMPD Management Consultants as Associate Consultant cum Lecturer for Diploma in Management, Institute of Supervisory Management UK/SMPD JV. Currently – Associate/Visiting Consultants/Facilitators, Advisors for leading consulting firms (local and international) including project management. To name a few – Noma SWO Consult, Amiosh Resources, Timur West Consultant Sdn. Bhd., TIJ Consultants Group (Malaysia and Singapore) and many others.

* Ex-Resident Weekly Columnist of Utusan Malaysia (1995-1998) and have produced more than 100 articles related to ISO-9000– Management System and Documentation Models, TQM Strategic Management, Occupational Safety and Health (now OHSAS 18000) and Environmental Management Systems ISO 14000. His write-ups/experience has assisted many students/researchers alike in module developments based on competency or academics and completion of many theses. Once commended by the then Chief Secretary to the Government of Malaysia for his diligence in promoting and training the civil services (government sector) based on “Total Quality Management and Quality Management System ISO-9000 in Malaysian Civil Service – Paradigm Shift Scalar for Assessment System”

Among Nik Zafri’s clients : Adabi Consumer Industries Sdn. Bhd, (MRP II, Accounts/Credit Control) The HQ of Royal Customs and Excise Malaysia (ISO 9000), Veterinary Services Dept. Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), The Institution of Engineers Malaysia (Aspects of Project Management – KLCC construction), Corporate HQ of RHB (Peter Drucker's MBO/KRA), NEC Semiconductor - Klang Selangor (Productivity Management), Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia (ISO 9000), State Secretarial Office Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), Hidrological Department KL (ISO 9000), Asahi Kluang Johor(System Audit, Management/Supervisory Development), Tunku Mahmood (2) Primary School Kluang Johor (ISO 9000), Consortium PANZANA (HSSE 3rd Party Audit), Lecturer for Information Technology Training Centre (ITTC) – Authorised Training Center (ATC) – University of Technology Malaysia (UTM) Kluang Branch Johor, Kluang General Hospital Johor (Management/Supervision Development, Office Technology/Administration, ISO 9000 & Construction Management), Kahang Timur Secondary School Johor (ISO 9000), Sultan Abdul Jalil Secondary School Kluang Johor (Islamic Motivation and Team Building), Guocera Tiles Industries Kluang Johor (EMS ISO 14000), MNE Construction (M) Sdn. Bhd. Kota Tinggi Johor (ISO 9000 – Construction), UITM Shah Alam Selangor (Knowledge Management/Knowledge Based Economy /TQM), Telesystem Electronics/Digico Cable(ODM/OEM for Astro – ISO 9000), Sungai Long Industries Sdn. Bhd. (Bina Puri Group) - ISO 9000 Construction), Secura Security Printing Sdn. Bhd,(ISO 9000 – Security Printing) ROTOL AMS Bumi Sdn. Bhd & ROTOL Architectural Services Sdn. Bhd. (ROTOL Group) – ISO 9000 –Architecture, Bond M & E (KL) Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9000 – Construction/M & E), Skyline Telco (M) Sdn. Bhd. (Knowledge Management),Technochase Sdn. Bhd JB (ISO 9000 – Construction), Institut Kefahaman Islam Malaysia (IKIM – ISO 9000 & Internal Audit Refresher), Shinryo/Steamline Consortium (Petronas/OGP Power Co-Generation Plant Melaka – Construction Management and Safety, Health, Environment), Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Negotiation Skills), Association for Retired Intelligence Operatives of Malaysia (Cyber Security – Arpa/NSFUsenet, Cobit, Till, ISO/IEC ISMS 27000 for Law/Enforcement/Military), T.Yamaichi Corp. (M) Sdn. Bhd. (EMS ISO 14000) LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd., (Lean Scoreboard (including a full development of System-Software-Application - MSC Malaysia & Six Sigma) PJZ Marine Services Sdn. Bhd., (Safety Management Systems and Internal Audit based on International Marine Organization Standards) UNITAR/UNTEC (Degree in Accountacy – Career Path/Roadmap) Cobrain Holdings Sdn. Bhd.(Managing Construction Safety & Health), Speaker for International Finance & Management Strategy (Closed Conference), Pembinaan Jaya Zira Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9001:2008-Internal Audit for Construction Industry & Overview of version 2015), Straits Consulting Engineers Sdn. Bhd. (Full Integrated Management System – ISO 9000, OHSAS 18000 (ISO 45000) and EMS ISO 14000 for Civil/Structural/Geotechnical Consulting), Malaysia Management & Science University (MSU – (Managing Business in an Organization), Innoseven Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 MSPR8 – Awareness and Internal Audit (Construction), ISO 9001:2008 and 2015 overview for the Construction Industry), Kemakmuran Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 - Signages/Wayfinding - Project Quality Plan and Construction Method Statement ), Lembaga Tabung Haji - Flood ERP, WNA Consultants - DID/JPS -Flood Risk Assessment and Management Plan - Prelim, Conceptual Design, Interim and Final Report etc., Tunnel Fire Safety - Fire Risk Assessment Report - Design Fire Scenario), Safety, Health and Environmental Management Plans leading construction/property companies/corporations in Malaysia, Timur West Consultant : Business Methodology and System, Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) ISO/IEC 27001:2013 for Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya ISMS/Audit/Risk/ITP Technical Team, MPDT Capital Berhad - ISO 9001: 2015 - Consultancy, Construction, Project Rehabilitation, Desalination (first one in Malaysia to receive certification on trades such as Reverse Osmosis Seawater Desalination and Project Recovery/Rehabilitation)

* Has appeared for 10 consecutive series in “Good Morning Malaysia RTM TV1’ Corporate Talk Segment discussing on ISO 9000/14000 in various industries. For ICT, his inputs garnered from his expertise have successfully led to development of work-process e-enabling systems in the environments of intranet, portal and interactive web design especially for the construction and manufacturing. Some of the end products have won various competitions of innovativeness, quality, continual-improvements and construction industry award at national level. He has also in advisory capacity – involved in development and moderation of websites, portals and e-profiles for mainly corporate and private sectors, public figures etc. He is also one of the recipients for MOSTE Innovation for RFID use in Electronic Toll Collection in Malaysia.

Note :


TO SEE ALL ARTICLES

ON THE"LABEL" SECTION BELOW (RIGHT SIDE COLUMN), YOU CAN CLICK ON ANY TAG - TO READ ALL ARTICLES ACCORDING TO ITS CATEGORY (E.G. LABEL : CONSTRUCTION) OR GO TO THE VERY END OF THIS BLOG AND CLICK "Older Posts"


 

Sunday, December 28, 2008

NIK ZAFRI'S (HUMBLE) ASIA/SEA ECONOMICAL FORECAST 2009

Many have forecasted that SEA will be the first to rebound from the current economic crisis by September, 2009.

On the other hand, what saddens me most is that some even forecasted that Asian economy will fall badly in 2009 - such a pathetic statement meant to discourage us.
In the past, we have been known for the reputation of outperforming the US and Europe due to the right planning and eventually become very immune to any credit crunch from the West.

Some countries are not even depending on IMF or World Bank in 1997-1998-remember? Even China has been too much underestimated (not that I disagree but too much 'smart' speculations..come on) by these 'so-called' economic forecasters.

I have always been known as a 'reverse psychological' person. I don't believe in 'too obvious bad news' being reported meant to lure the small investors away but giving great monetary advantages to speculators.

Based on these 'unfounded fears', I feel strongly that the Asian will be one of the key players in the world economy commencing from 2009.

But of course, I have a different theory (especially for Malaysia) - I think it's earlier than that...say April, 2009?

But, I share the agreement that it is likely going to be Singapore then probably followed by Malaysia. There have been a trend of banking and financial institutions in these two neighbouring countries offering new packages to GLCs and MNCs. These efforts would probably contribute to economy recovery in 2009. There has also been a higher demand for exports from Malaysia and Singapore based on the increased spending in the Euro and US.

The banking sectors in Japan are planning to buy securities, stocks and bonds (corporate) etc - and if these plan works, it will help stabilise their financial market. The Government has announce Japan's biggest ever annual budget Y12,000bn.

China however would still have to be put under alert - to grow or not to grow. Since China are trading with other SEA countries, their ability to export surplus stocks financed on credit should be monitored. New policies to boost consumption need to be drawn up to counter this possibility. I do know that China works very-very hard lately not to be bound to 'intelligent economic comments' e.g. decoupling - and I have every confident that they will succeed.

In Indonesia, the President announce the budget of USD200 billion ++ and a 6.2% growth is expected. However, they are not too sure about the outcome of issuance of Government bonds and probably there will be a budget deficit of nearly 2% GDP. Mainly taxes will play a role for the main revenue followed by non-tax sectors. There will also be about 102 trillion rupiah for fuel subsidy.

The only biggest dillema in Indonesia is corruption - if this is not being minimized, I do not think that they can reach the target that they are hoping for. While for the good part that Indonesia has done right is their achievement of regaining self-sufficiency in rice where the production has surpassed the country's rice consumption. This has made them better in terms of food situation and probably would take them out of the current global food crisis.

For Korea, they are not too ambitious; which I find a good thing to do - be cautious. While everyone is hoping and praying for a 2009 turnaround, Korea predicted a 3% growth and the focus is mainly creating new job opportunity. They have also cut taxes here and there.

Korean consumer price is estimated to stabilize to less than 4% and there may also be decreasing service deficitit and rising goods surplus - thus making 2009 account surplus to exceed USD10 billion. I personally think that Korea should now put an effort to minimize their dependency on IMF as what they have done before in 1997.

I will keep you all updated.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS

This year’s Global Competitiveness Report is being released at a time of multiple shocks to the global economy. The subprime mortgage crisis and the ensuing credit crunch, combined with rising inflation worldwide and the consequent slowdown in demand in many advanced economies, has engendered significant uncertainty about the short-term outlook for the world economy. Global growth is slowing, and it is not yet clear when the effects of the present crisis will subside.

The financial market crisis that began in early 2007 is almost unprecedented in its impact, having resulted not only in losses in markets and for financial institutions, but also in an erosion of public confidence in the financial sector and among the institutions themselves across the industrialized world. In the meantime, rising energy and commodity prices are having a dual effect on emerging and developing economies: on the one hand, boosting growth; on the other hand creating inflationary pressures that raise the basic cost of living, thus increasing poverty levels. More generally, although the present slowdown was originally expected to be confined mainly to the United States, it is now spreading to other industrialized economies and it is not yet clear what the future will bring for emerging markets.

Policymakers are presently struggling with ways of managing these multiple shocks intelligently while preparing their economies to perform well in an economic landscape characterized by growing volatility. In an unstable global financial environment, it is more important than ever for countries to put into place the fundamentals underpinning economic growth and development.The World Economic Forum has for the past 30 years played a facilitating role in this process, by providing detailed assessments of the productive potential of nations worldwide.The Report is a contribution to enhancing our understanding of the key factors determining economic growth, and explaining why some countries are much more successful than others in raising income levels and opportunities for their respectivepopulations, offering policymakers and business leaders an important tool in the formulation of improved economic policies and institutional reforms.

MORE

Monday, November 17, 2008

Reasons for Economical Disturbances :

a. Crude oil price volatility

b. Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis

c. The Fall of Share Market

d. The Fall of global corporate guns/bluechips

e. Anything else?

Chain-Reaction

a. USD exchange badly affected,
b. Price of Food going up?
c. Refinancing and repackaging of assets/properties, loans even credit cards to a longer repayment but with higher interest?
d. Heavy Hedging and Sell-Offs
e. Bad Fall in Motor & Transportation Industries – closed down – Lehman Brothers, GM etc.

MORE HERE :



Tuesday, October 14, 2008

As you all have already known that the financial experts (or so called) have commenced their efforts to charter the implications of this year's credit crisis (esp. in the US) as a result of financial market turbulence. Not too long ago, everyone is aiming at the renaissance of China but with the current condition they are facing, it may potentially be a little while before their internal problems can be stabilized if not solved fully.

So, what can our world governments do? I humbly think that the financial market should be slowly integrated to become a global network or hub. Except for US, I've seen efforts via conferences and seminars towards implementing such plans. I'm also shocked to know the rate of countries retreating from Euro these days.

US on the other hand; if not properly controlled; may affect even to the security matters - just wait if New York started to feel the pinch and everything will start to lead to one problem to another. (esp. security matters) I do not know if US need to cut down on foreign assistance at the moment - but if this is the case, then the fiscal pinch may affect the amount of such aid. If I may say, I hope that New York can start efforts of working together with other financial hubs to become a network of global capitals. The only setback is the global political stability as whenever there are plans of more effective and beneficial integration, the political element has to be part and parcel of financial market. Of course, I don't need to tell how much US can save by less interfering in other countries internal affairs as what have been done in Africa, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. US Bush Administration has tried their best to save their economy but it is too sluggish - I hope they can crush their ego and restrategize - try to create a better relationships with other countries - they have tried too many models and these models just don't work...

We can no longer depend on IMF, World Bank (now almost irrelevant) and even the UN (they themselves are now in hot soup despite funded the US) but we have to do something NOW to create a healthier market - e.g. making more rooms for reserves. We know that UN's stand on Darfur, Georgia & Pakistan - total silence for unknown reason.

When I talk about integration or interdepence, I'm not really pointing towards globalization as it is still a concept of uncertainty that may become a friend or a foe. That is too much for a small guy like me to anticipate. Just referring to the good ol' concept working together as a team. This 'teamwork' may lead to good global financial governance will create better monetary policies, securities regulations and even signifcant changes can be made to auditing and accounting standards.

Where would be the ideal starting point? The answer is the first tier - Banking and Financial Institutions. I would like to open this suggestion to Asia (or SEA) as Asia is a very unique continent that has always found a way towards survival. (perhaps some democratization of financial policies should be in place) Most important is TRUST and coordinated efforts one another - as every bankers and financiers have all the knowledge. (Don't wait for someone else to start first) There should be no more too much dependency on certain elite groups or industries that are 'controlling the financial world' and we have seen the impact when these 'big mega industries' started to fall. (NASTY!)

Again, my 2 sens worth!

Thursday, October 09, 2008

WASHINGTON POST


No Depression
This Time, Uncle Sam Has Got Our Back


By Laurence J. Kotlikoff and Perry MehrlingThursday, October 9, 2008; Page A21

Global markets have not been reassured by the coordinated interest rate cuts of several central banks or by recent congressional action, but they should be. Our bet is that financial markets will return to normal in short order and that the U.S. economy will squeak by with a moderate recession. Recapitalizing the banks and working out mortgages will take time, but the financial system will not collapse -- the government won't let it.

The markets, of course, seem to be factoring in some probability of collapse. Why is this wrong?
For starters, the biggest subprime mortgage gamblers have already failed, been nationalized or been married off, shotgun-style, to banks run by grown-ups. Yes, lots of small shoes may still drop, but the Paulson "buy-up" bill, and, ultimately, the Fed's ability to print money, provides the Treasury and Federal Reserve all the tools they need. The media don't seem to have noticed, but Section 113 of the bill authorizes government capital infusions into the banking system as necessary -- something the British government is now doing and the Swedish government successfully did in the recent past. That means any bank with a viable business will not be allowed to fail simply because it is temporarily undercapitalized.

Second, Uncle Sam (a.k.a. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke) is doing precisely what's needed to avoid the mistakes of the 1930s. With credit markets drying up, he's turning on the faucet by recycling our panic dollars back into the financial market.

The government is taking in our money (in exchange for Treasury bills) and using it to make mortgages and buy up the assets we're too scared to hold. It's doing this via the Treasury, the Fed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Federal Housing Administration, the Federal Home Loan Bank, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other appendages. It's starting to lend directly to large and small businesses whose usual sources of credit have become unavailable.

In short, Uncle Sam is becoming our new bank. He has also become our new insurance company with his effective purchase of the world's largest insurer -- AIG.

In the 1930s, nobody in the private sector could borrow, raise equity or sell insurance because everyone lost trust in everyone else. Uncle Sam stood on the sidelines and marveled at the chaos. But today Uncle Sam is saying, "Listen, if you households and firms are too scared to invest in each other or sell each other insurance, give us your money, and we'll do it for you. We'll pay you a sure return on the Treasuries and, if our investments and insurance sales do well, you'll benefit by paying lower taxes."

This may sound like socialism or state capitalism, but it's simply rearranging the financial furniture. As Americans have freaked out, Uncle Sam has stepped up. He'll continue doing so until we realize the sky is not falling. The $700 billion rescue authorizes the federal government to keep doing what it has been doing for the past year to the tune of $400 billion -- buying distressed assets at bargain-basement prices and selling insurance at high premiums. If all works out, Uncle Sam will make a killing. This would be great, given our government's real problem -- paying the long-term Social Security and medical costs of retiring baby boomers.

Point three is clear: This financial chaos has ruined our sleep but left our physical and human capital unscathed. We have the same productive capacity today we had a year ago. And if our capital hasn't changed, we've suffered no overall capital loss.

This means that our accounting, which has focused on financial losses, is missing lots of offsetting financial gains. The offsetting gains are accruing to current or prospective purchasers of the assets whose market values have dropped. Asset buyers, whether they are young people buying their first homes, middle-aged workers contributing to their 401(k)s or billionaires such as Warren Buffett buying financial firms, can now acquire homes and stocks (claims to the same capital inside the companies) at a roughly one-third discount from a year ago. That's great for them, and lousy for the rest of us, but not a net economic tragedy.

The economic tragedy comes if we get hypnotized by the bad news, ignore the good news, fight about things we're already doing (e.g., having Uncle Sam buy and insure troubled assets) and pull our economic heads inside our shells. We Americans have lots of moxie. What we need is a strong pep talk and absolute assurance that credit will continue to flow, that insurance policies will continue to be honored, and that Uncle Sam is willing and able to invest directly in the private economy on our behalf.

So after scaring us half to death, this would be a good time for our other uncles -- Hank and Ben -- to make clear that we're heading for a safe landing and that there is no way in hell they will let this economy go down the tubes.

Laurence J. Kotlikoff, a professor of economics at Boston University, is co-author of "Spend 'Til the End." Perry Mehrling is a professor of economics at Columbia University's Barnard College and author of "Fischer Black and the Revolutionary Idea of Finance."
Financial Times

Some of the fault lies closer to home - By John Gapper
Published: October 8 2008 19:06 Last updated: October 8 2008 22:37

"Small island, big problem” was the headline in some editions of the Financial Times on Wednesday. It referred to Iceland, which has almost gone bust and had to seek a €4bn loan from Russia. But it could have been about the UK, which has pumped £50bn of equity into its biggest banks.

The previous moment of maximum danger for British banks in my lifetime came in 1973 when, during the secondary banking crisis, National Westminster Bank needed to assure investors that it was solvent. Words would not do this week: public money was required to prop up NatWest’s parent bank RBS.

When in trouble, humans tend to blame others and many British people have blamed Americans for the subprime mortgage mess, which started the global financial crisis. If only the Wall Street banks had not cooked up loans for people who could not afford to repay them, things would have been all right.

The British, Irish, Spanish and others could have carried on enjoying sharply rising property prices and cheap mortgages. European governments would not have spent the week gazumping each other with ever higher guarantees of assistance to their own country's banks.

Americans, meanwhile, are taking it out on Wall Street financiers. Dick Fuld, chairman of Lehman Brothers, and Martin Sullivan, former chief executive of American International Group, were hauled in front of a congressional committee to account for their blunders.

Both were excoriated by politicians for the millions they received in the good times. They looked, as Samuel Pepys wrote in October 1660 of a Puritan soldier who was hanged, drawn and quartered, “as cheerful as any man could do in that condition”.

There is no question that professionals of many nationalities – bankers, financiers, estate agents and regulators – behaved badly. They got paid a lot of money and wilfully loosened credit restrictions to keep house prices rising and bonuses flowing. Many of them, although far from all, were American.

But I would like to propose another culprit for the difficulty that many economies are in: you and I. We home buyers and mortgage borrowers share the blame, whether we are American, British or Icelandic.

Take nationality first. A year ago, when the US subprime mortgage debacle was evident but the British housing market was still doing well, I took a trip to London from my home in New York. On a visit to friends in west London, I was struck by the number of houses in their street with “To Let” boards outside.

At the time, there was a lot of talk about how the UK housing market differed from that of the US because it was a small island with a limited housing stock, there was no equivalent of subprime lending and so on. But those “To Let” boards said something different to me.

They showed that cheap debt and rising asset prices had led to housing speculation all over the world; it just took different forms. In wide, flat Florida it created sprawls of condominium apartments; in densely packed UK cities it generated a rush into buy-to-let properties. For subprime mortgages in the US, read “self-certified” UK loans.

The US housing market had unique flaws: the outsized role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the home loan agencies; low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve after September 11, 2001; high fees that gave estate agents and loan appraisers incentives to pump out mortgages.

But the housing bubble was global. It was financed by securities that were constructed and sold as much in London as New York and people from many nations borrowed to buy homes. Wednesday’s co-ordinated interest rate cuts, and part-nationalisation of UK banks, illustrate that.

Then there is our tendency to blame everything on bankers and other financial professionals. Here too, we are kidding ourselves. Bankers did many foolish – and, in some cases, unethical – things during the boom. But they did not force people to buy houses or take out mortgages; they mostly provided enough rope for borrowers to hang themselves.

In the past, people used to rely on bankers to guard themselves from their own worst financial instincts. They might have wanted to borrow 100 per cent (or 125 per cent) of the value of a home without the need to demonstrate thrift and reliability by making a down-payment. But they were shown the door.

Without bankers saying “no”, many people borrowed to the hilt, assuming that rising asset prices had eliminated all risk. Some confined themselves to buying bigger houses for themselves, while others bought second and third homes to rent them out while their capital appreciated.

We know why this occurred because we all lived through it, and financial bubbles are peculiarly intoxicating. When you are surrounded by people constantly talking about how much money they have made (on paper) by buying a house, you end up wanting to get a piece of the action and fearing being left behind.

It was the madness of crowds and, unlike some bouts, it crossed borders. Even countries with comparatively low rates of home ownership, such as Germany and Belgium, were caught up in the speculative rush.

Human nature is not going to change so public policy cannot focus – beyond the need for more financial education – on eliminating our urge to get rich quick. It is more practical to sharpen up regulation and reduce the incentives for bankers to finance our foolishness in future.

But, if for no other reason than to increase our chances of doing better next time, we must beware of blaming bankers and foreigners for everything. The fault lies closer to home.

Monday, September 08, 2008

From : CFR ORG

Mortgage Takeover

Yesterday the United States Treasury Department announced it would move to take over control of the massive U.S. lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an attempt to ease the U.S. mortgage crisis and its global ripple effects. The move is the largest such nationalization in decades and is intended to prevent a collapse at either of the institutions, the combined net value of which exceeds $5 trillion. The takeover could remove a major source of economic insecurity for financial markets, which had long feared a collapse at one of the major mortgage lenders would trigger a wave of housing mortgage defaults and, in turn, prompt bank failures. Global stocks rallied on the news, with major indices in Europe and Asia jumping over 3 percent (BBC)

Questions linger, however, about how the takeover will shake out economically. The Wall Street Journal reports that it marks a new, "uncharted phase" of the U.S. mortgage crisis in which U.S. taxpayers could be liable for billions of dollars of write downs at Fannie and Freddie.

Fannie and Freddie were essentially already on the U.S. balance sheet, Wolf says, in the sense that the risks associated with their collapse were intricately wound up in U.S. economic prospects.

Still, the New York Times reports many individuals stand to suffer large-scale losses following the takeover. Shareholders of the lending giants are likely to get largely wiped out, analysts say, as their money will be among the first to go toward writeoffs.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

From : mbsbstaff-by-email, also posted on The Star Global Malaysian Forum - Topic : Business and Professional Networking - Thread : Architectural and Sustainable Design.

From : mbsbstaff-by-email - "Encik Nik Zafri, are you the same person who sent an invitation card for the officiation ceremony of the Fibreglass Water Tank in Puchong recently? Can I have more info?"
--------------------------------------------
Hi back, are you from Malaysian Building Society Berhad (I notice the mbsbstaff)? Yes it's the very same Nik Zafri, I assure you.

But I'm very curious of where did you see that invitation? For whom it was meant to originally - if I may know? As a matter of fact, I don't recall sending the invitation to MBSB...(unless this MBSB means something else)

Can I make a small correction? It's not Fibreglass Water Tank, it's Fibreglass Reinforced Plastic (or Polymer) Hot Pressed Moulded Water Storage Tank.

I'm actually one of the consulting panel and not in any way have shares/interest in the company. The company's market is mainly UAE with one of the subsidiaries of the reputable Bin-Zayed Group.

My job over there is to help out the company's long term business plans focussing (for the time being) the possibility of exploring local market - specifically on the issues of :

a) Vendor Development Program
b) Capital Financing possibilities via avenues of grants and perhaps SME
c) Business Diversification (as composite materials can be applied to construction industry (e.g. Fibreglass Reinforced Concrete), Aerospace and even military applications)

That's all for now..I don't want readers to think that I'm a salesman or something. :-)

Anyway, if you have any business interest, you can call 03-8060-4040 and talk to Encik Azman or Encik Zahari. I rarely go there except when required - so I won't be there all the time - so don't put your hopes to speak to me - I'm just a 'small guy' over there.

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

ISSUANCE OF 'GDP-LINKED' BONDS

There has been some interesting stories I heard in the market about the intention of the Government to issue bonds to stabilize the economy. When plan of economic stabilization involves, these bonds are known as "GDP-linked"

Just a short comment (I hope)

There are a number of things to talk about whenever anybody touched about GDP and linking it to bonds.

But one of the most popular reactions would be the increasing interest in creating bonds.

1. Bond servicing is higher during rapid growth but lower if the growth is slow.

2. For borrowers - issuance may stabilize public spending as Government can service more debt during affordable times and less during difficulties. It is also said to lower down crisis of debts and defaults. When you reduce the service of country's debt during recession, it may help in the recovery process.

3. For investors - losses may happen due to defaults. Thus, comapred to the conventional bond, this kind of bond (GDP-linked) can ensure higher total payment hence reducing default probability (what am I saying? )

4. The Government can help in financing some potential sectors if GDP-linked bonds are issued. In theory, some emerging or new sectors (any industry esp. manufacturing) can target to be listed in the Bursa Malaysia if they wish as bond issuance can help correction in the stock market.

5. It also helps in improving capital market as well (esp. corporate bonds - in Malaysia's case - the bonds issued by GLC). The corporate sector can reduce cost and improve capital efficience once bonds are integrated into the financial stucture.

Having said the above, there are disadvantages as well...I'll save the 'bad news' for another day.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Hi everyone!!

It's been a while...dropping by to share a very good article which has caused me some delay in submitting a very important document to the client.

Luckily my client called me up to remind me...


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Speeches, Testimony, Papers
Global Economic Prospects 2008/2009: Hoping for a Global Slowdown and a US Recession
by Michael Mussa, Peterson Institute

Paper presented at the thirteenth semiannual meeting on Global Economic Prospects
April 3, 2008


© Peterson institute for International Economics. All rights reserved.

Overview

After four years of average annual global real GDP growth of better than 4 1/2 percent, recent data indicate that the pace of advance is slowing in the major industrial countries, with the US economy on the verge of, and perhaps already in, outright recession. So far, the evidence points to less of a slowdown in other industrial countries, while most emerging-market economies appear likely to maintain quite strong, albeit somewhat slower, growth.

Meanwhile, world consumer price inflation (on a 12-month basis) is up from barely 2 percent seven years ago to nearly 5 percent as of February 2008. Among both industrial (except for Japan) and major emerging-market countries, inflation is now running at, or in most cases somewhat above, rates consistent with policy objectives. Driven by persistently rising global demand, commodity prices continue to surge upward across the board, especially measured in US dollars but also in terms of the rapidly appreciating euro.

In this situation, the world economy really needs what is now forecast for 2008/2009: a significant slowing of economic growth, down to 3.8 percent (year over year) in 2008 from 4.7 percent in 2007.1 This slowdown will be led by a decline of demand growth in the US economy, which is both pronounced and extends over a considerable period. Indeed, in view of the exceptionally aggressive easing of macroeconomic policies already in place in the United States and the likelihood of monetary policy remaining highly accommodative so long as US financial markets remain under stress, it is now desirable that real GDP growth for 2008 fall to a forecasted rate of barely more than 1 percent (year over year)—an outcome consistent with a very mild and brief recession. Reflecting some risk of a somewhat deeper and more prolonged recession in the United States, the growth forecast for 2009 (year over year) is set at 2 percent.

For the rest of the world, a mild US recession in 2008 will have a modest negative effect on real GDP growth, with more significant impacts in Mexico and Canada. In countries where the slowdown threatens to become excessive and inflation is under control, some easing of monetary and perhaps fiscal policy is both likely and appropriate. More generally, however, it is too soon to call for a general and significant easing of macroeconomic policies. A general slowdown in global economic growth is needed to cool the clearly apparent upsurge in worldwide inflation.

Some countries, including Australia, China, and Sweden, have recently tightened monetary policies in efforts to forestall inflation. Other countries, including Canada and the United Kingdom, have eased monetary policies modestly in response to weakening economic growth. Quite appropriately, however, no country has so far followed the lead of the Federal Reserve in aggressive monetary easing.

As the custodian of the world's second most important currency, the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) is particularly noteworthy. Inflation in the euro area is running more than a percentage point above the ECB's announced objective. The euro area economy has recently been growing significantly more rapidly than its potential rate of about 1 1/2 percent. The unemployment rate has fallen half a percentage point below the minimum reached in the last expansion. Key monetary aggregates are surging at rates well above their desired target ranges. In this situation, one would normally have expected the ECB to have raised its key policy interest rate a further 100 basis points since last summer.

Instead, with financial turbulence spreading to some extent from the United States to euro area financial markets and institutions, with evidence that euro area economies are beginning to slow, and with a sharp appreciation of the euro against the dollar, which is likely to slow growth and impede inflation, the ECB has wisely held back from further interest rate increases. With the euro area economy now expected to expand by about 1 1/2 percent this year (in line with potential), the timing and direction of future adjustments in ECB interest rates remain—appropriately—dependent upon the evolving balance of risks for inflation and economic growth.

For Japan, the strengthening of the yen against the dollar in recent months and weakening of exports to the United States, together with likely weakness in domestic demand growth, suggest a further write-down in the forecast for real GDP growth for 2008 to 1.2 percent (from 1¾ percent forecast last October). This reflects the assumption that the surprising upsurge of GDP growth in the final quarter of 2007 will be partly offset in the first half of this year.

For the industrial countries as a group, real GDP growth this year is now forecast to be 1.5 percent, and growth for 2009 is projected to be moderately stronger at about 1.9 percent.

In emerging-market economies, circumstances vary and so do appropriate policies, but the general prospect is for continued quite strong economic growth, despite the slowdown in the industrial countries.

Is this "decoupling?" Not really. Mexico, Caribbean and Central American countries, and Asian economies that are particularly dependent on exports to the United States are already feeling and will continue to feel the effects of the US economic slowdown. More broadly, however, strong growth of domestic demand in many emerging-market economies will sustain reasonably strong GDP growth, and rising demand for raw materials by key emerging-market economies, most importantly China, will help keep commodity prices strong and aid growth in other emerging-market economies.

Overall, I forecast that growth for developing and emerging-market economies as a group this year will be about 6 1/2 percent, down from almost a 7 1/2 percent advance in 2007. For 2009, I now project slightly slower growth. The slowdown will be more severe, however, if growth in the industrial countries, especially the United States, turns out to be meaningfully below the present forecast. Exports from emerging-market countries would then be hit in volume terms, and prices of commodity exports could take a serious tumble. Some developing countries, especially among the primary commodity exporters, could face serious economic challenges and potential crises.

On this occasion, Arvind Subramanian is available to share his expertise on emerging-market economies, particularly in Asia and especially India. Accordingly, I will limit my remarks on these economies to selected observations on some key emerging-market countries. Then, in view of the departure from the Institute of my colleague Martin Baily and the (at least) temporary absence of Douglas Holtz-Eakin, I will turn to discuss growth prospects in the industrial countries, especially the United States. This should provide background for Morris Goldstein's more in-depth observations on the present financial crisis and proposals for reform.

Sustained Growth in Emerging Markets

China's economy continues to surge forward, so much so that the authorities are tightening policies to cool down inflation. Growth will likely slow from 11 1/2 percent last year to about 10 percent this year and next. On the policy front, the key action that should be taken—but that the Chinese authorities have so far refused—is a significant step appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar and in real effective terms, combined with policies to stimulate domestic demand.

In the rest of emerging Asia, growth will likely moderate somewhat in 2008 and 2009 but stay above 6 percent, with India continuing to grow at nearly 8 percent.

In Latin America, Mexico will suffer spillover effects from the slowing US economy, and growth this year is likely to fall to about 2 1/2 percent before recovering modestly in 2009. In contrast, Brazil should be able to sustain growth of nearly 5 percent, despite the strong appreciation of the real against the dollar. Growth in Argentina and Venezuela is expected to slow from the high rates of recent years, bringing down the growth rate for all of Latin America to about 4 1/2 percent this year and slightly less in 2009.

For Central and Eastern Europe, weak growth in Hungary and Turkey hurt regional performance in 2007 and partly offset strong results in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia. For 2008 and 2009, regional growth will likely run about 4 percent, reflecting partly the impact of slower growth in Western Europe.

In the Commonwealth of Independent States, the dominant Russian economy should continue to grow at about 7 percent, and growth rates will likely remain somewhat higher (on average) in the smaller economies.

For the Middle East, high oil prices will help keep growth strong in the energy-exporting countries. The larger and more diversified economies of Egypt and Israel should also maintain growth rates in the 5 percent range.

High commodity prices will continue to benefit many African countries, and growth in the region appears likely to continue at least at a 5 percent rate.

Slowing in Other Industrial Countries

Among the industrial countries other than the United States, growth will slow significantly from the 2 3/4 percent advance of 2007 to barely more than 1 1/2 percent this year. However, aside from the United States, I see significant risk of recession this year only in Japan and possibly Italy. The impact of the yen's recent appreciation and weakening of exports to the United States, together with deteriorating sentiment among Japanese businesses and consumers, could push GDP into a couple of quarters of negative growth, even if year-over-year growth remains slightly positive. And the Japanese policy authorities have little room to provide offsetting stimulus.

In Canada, growth this year will likely fall a little below 2 percent, under the impact of slowing US growth and a strong Canadian dollar. However, solid income growth from strong export revenues should keep domestic demand relatively robust, and the Canadian authorities have considerable room to ease policy should that appear needed to forestall very weak growth or recession.

In the United Kingdom, growth this year is also likely to slow to slightly less than 2 percent. But this is not entirely unwelcome in view of the need to curb inflationary pressures, and the Bank of England has plenty of room to ease further should that appear warranted. The Reserve Bank of Australia has continued to tighten in recent months and would surely welcome the forecasted slowing of growth to 3 percent this year.

In the euro area, as previously noted, the projected slowing of growth this year to 1.6 percent from 2.6 percent last year involves nothing more than slowing to the potential growth rate. The slowdown will affect all countries in the area. The Italian economy looks likely to be extremely sluggish and is at some risk of falling into recession. Growth should remain stronger in Germany, sustained by good export performance in the face of weaker consumer demand. France will lag slightly behind Germany, while Spain will slow considerably due to a sharp downturn in home building. The slowdown will probably be reflected in a small uptick in unemployment and will be unpopular with most politicians. However, with inflation running well above the ECB's tolerance rate of 2 percent, the central bank is likely to see the slowing of growth more as a solution than as a problem.

A Mild US Recession

Despite signs of increasing financial strains, the US economy achieved almost 5 percent annualized growth in the third quarter of last year. Economic data that became available through Christmas indicated that the economy was still expanding through November. The data since late December, however, suggest that economic activity has been no better than flat and probably modestly declining since very late last year. The economic data do not indicate an economy that is crashing into steep recession.

The three most recent monthly employment reports have shown small declines in private-sector jobs. Weekly initial unemployment claims have risen from around 300,000 to slightly over 350,000. Residential investment continues to decline. The boom in nonresidential construction appears to have peaked. Data on durable goods orders and shipments suggest weak or even declining business equipment investment. As should be expected in the face of falling home prices and household wealth, sharp increases in energy and food prices, and stagnating employment, real consumer spending has not increased since November—but it has not declined.

Net exports are probably continuing to improve, but this will not be enough to offset weakness in the other components of final demand. Annualized real GDP growth in the first quarter will likely be modestly negative—probably between minus one-half and minus one percent in the first quarter. (And, if there is a modestly positive result, it will probably reflect an upsurge in inventory investment, which is not a positive sign for future growth.)

The second quarter may see moderation in the pace of decline of residential investment, but the other elements of domestic demand are likely to remain weak. Another quarter of modestly negative real GDP growth now seems to be the most likely outcome. Whether this will be enough to persuade the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to proclaim an official recession is not clear, but I would now put the likelihood of such a recession at over 50 percent.

By June, the tax cuts from the recently passed fiscal package will be flowing into consumers pockets, bumping up consumer spending mainly in the third quarter. Some, not unreasonable, forecasts suggest that the stimulus could induce as much as a 5 percent annualized gain of real consumer spending in the third quarter, implying a considerable temporary boost to GDP growth. My view is more restrained, partly because I expect that businesses will absorb some of any surge in consumption spending (particularly for durables) into reductions in inventories.

On the other hand, businesses have kept inventories quite lean for the past three years, and there is no indication of a general inventory overhang (aside from the stockpile of unsold homes, which is not counted in business inventories). Sharp declines of inventory investment into negative territory have been a feature of all ten postwar recessions. It is a positive sign that the magnitude of any inventory correction in the present episode appears likely to be limited.

In sum, the prospect is that with the benefit of the fiscal stimulus, the US economy will bounce back to moderately positive growth this summer. By then the massive contraction of residential investment, which began two years ago, should be complete—with new home building running just below one million units, less than half of its recent peak level. Growth of consumer spending is likely to be weak after the effects of the stimulus are spent, but inventory investment should bounce back, and net exports may be expected to continue to make positive contributions to GDP growth. During the second half of 2008, it is reasonable to expect growth to rebound to 2 to 3 percent.

The suggested pattern of modestly falling GDP in the first half and moderate rebound in the second half implies that real GDP will show a very meager advance of about one-half percent on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis. Year-over-year real GDP growth would be barely more than 1 percent. In comparison, in the 2001 recession—the mildest of the postwar era—fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter growth was 0.4 percent and year-over-year growth was 0.8 percent.

The 2001 recession was followed by an initially weak recovery, with real GDP growing at only a 1.7 percent rate during the six quarters after the official end of recession, and with the unemployment rate continuing to rise to a peak of 6.3 percent in May 2003. On this occasion, I expect that the economy will remain quite sluggish through 2009, with growth proceeding at about a 2 percent annual rate. Weak growth of consumer spending in the face of significant losses of household net worth associated with lower real home values will be the key reason for this sluggishness.

Partly offsetting weak consumer spending growth will be continued improvement in US net exports, reflecting both slow import growth and continued rapid export growth. With the usual lag, the substantial depreciation of the dollar over the past year will contribute to the improvement in US net exports in 2009 and beyond.

We see here what I earlier called "reverse coupling." From 1995 through 2004, relatively strong growth of domestic demand in the United States and the effects of a strong dollar (with lags extending this effect) led to persistent deterioration in US real net exports. Thus, the United States was exporting demand to the rest of the world at a time when domestic demand growth in the rest of the world was relatively sluggish.

This process has been operating in reverse since the summer of 2006. Slower domestic demand growth in the United States, combined with stronger demand growth abroad and the effects of a significantly weaker dollar, have begun to significantly improve US real net exports. Thus, during the past year and a half, the rest of the world economy has been helping to pull the US economy along. This process may continue for several years as consumer spending growth in the United States remains restrained by the effects of lower household wealth, making room for expanding the supply of US net exports without contributing to inflationary pressures in the United States. For this process to continue relatively smoothly, however, the rest of the world needs to sustain reasonably robust demand growth and the United States needs to avoid too sharp a decline in domestic demand. The adjustment of the foreign exchange value of the dollar, which is essential for this process, is now largely complete, except for the needed appreciations of some Asian currencies, most notably the Chinese renminbi.

Turmoil in Global Financial Markets

A key feature and source of uncertainty in the present economic situation is the continuing turmoil in financial markets, especially in the United States but with spillovers to Europe and to a limited extent (so far) to Japan and emerging markets. Global equity markets have sold off amidst the turmoil, but markets for credit instruments and financial institutions dealing in such instruments have been most affected.

Three issues concerning this financial-market turmoil deserve special attention:

(1) What has caused this financial turmoil, notwithstanding strenuous efforts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks to contain it?

(2) What risks does it pose to the global economy?

(3) Have the policy responses been adequate and appropriate?

Regarding the causes of the turmoil, it is noteworthy that it has been most severe in US financial markets and institutions. Europe and, to a lesser extent, Canada and Japan have also been affected. In these other countries, a few institutions (such as the mortgage lender Northern Rock in the United Kingdom) have gotten into trouble on their own, related to their domestic activities. But most of the problems faced by non-US institutions have arisen because of their involvement with financial instruments originating in the United States.

In the United States, the initial underlying difficulties arose from subprime mortgages and financial instruments involving such mortgages. However, the crisis is much broader and deeper and has gone on longer than can plausibly be explained by this underlying cause. Across quite a broad spectrum, credit markets have become illiquid and dysfunctional. Interest rate spreads relative to US Treasury obligations have shot up and remained high and volatile even for higher-quality credits. Markets for important classes of bundled instruments have frozen up, and values for some of these instruments—to the extent that they can be determined—have plummeted. All this turmoil, well beyond what can plausibly be explained by developments in the real economy, indicates that financial markets and institutions themselves are mainly responsible for the crisis.

The extent of this crisis in credit markets is even more remarkable in view of the exceedingly aggressive actions taken by the Federal Reserve and the important but less aggressive actions of other leading central banks. Contrary to the nonsense spoken by many financial-market commentators, the Federal Reserve has not been "behind the curve" in its policy response. In fact, the easing of US monetary policy in the present possible recession has far outstripped the pace of easing in past actual recessions. On top of this, the Federal Reserve has recently taken truly extraordinary actions to extend specific liquidity support to a wide range of US financial institutions.

The official explanation for these extraordinary actions is not that they are motivated primarily by the desire to protect financial institutions from losses but rather to head off the risk of major damage to the general economy spreading from difficulties in the financial sector. So far, however, there is little indication that the general economy is suffering much damage from the credit market turmoil—beyond some deepening of the downturn in US residential investment. In particular, the present slowdown in the US economy and around the world is not much more than what we would normally have expected in view of falling home values, higher food and energy prices, and other developments aside from the turmoil in credit markets.

Does this imply that the Federal Reserve, in its efforts to protect the financial sector, has overreacted to the credit market turmoil? Has it eased too aggressively, unduly raising the risk of inflation down the road? Has its rescue of the financial sector by cutting massively the cost of funds and the provision of specific liquidity support generated far too much moral hazard relative to the value of the protective effect of these actions against real hazards faced by the general economy?

At this point, the answers to these questions are not entirely clear, but two conclusions can be reached with high confidence. First, given the massive easing already undertaken by the Federal Reserve and the likelihood of some modest further easing, the US economy now needs to undergo at least a near recession if the Federal Reserve's easing is not to be excessive. Second, if the Federal Reserve's highly aggressive actions have really been warranted to protect the economy from substantial harm, then deep reforms of the financial system, including the Federal Reserve's policies and practices, are clearly needed to reduce the likelihood of such problems in the future. The Federal Reserve cannot pose only as the hero riding to the rescue of the economy and the financial system. Its role as one of the villains whose earlier actions and inactions contributed to the present crisis needs to be fully and carefully assessed.


Table 1 Real GDP growth projections as of April 3, 2008 (percent change, year over year)





Note

1. The figures for global GDP growth are aggregated from the growth rates for individual countries using purchasing power parity (PPP)–based measures of exchange rates employed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook (WEO). Based on a major study supported by the World Bank, estimates of PPP exchange rates have recently been substantially revised, with the general result that the weights in world GDP of the industrial countries have been somewhat increased while those of emerging-market economies have been correspondingly reduced. Because emerging-market economies, most notably China and India, have been growing far more rapidly than most industrial countries in recent years, the effect of the revision in PPP exchange rates is to lower the figure for global growth (without changing growth rates for individual countries) by about 1/2 percentage point. Thus the present estimate for global growth of 4 3/4 percent in 2007 under the new PPP-based exchange rates corresponds to an estimate of 5 1/4 percent growth under the old weights. The weights used in table 1 are estimates of the weights that the IMF will use for the forecast to be reported in the current WEO.

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RESPONSE FROM MELBOURNIAN AND COUNTER-RESPONSE FROM NIK ZAFRI - IN GLOBAL MALAYSIAN FORUM

Melbournian : A very lengthy analysis that echos familiar cliche from "soft-landers". My only comment is that there are two important factors that seems to be absent from his presentation: ie the component of human emotion and the lack of accountability in the derivative instruments that are prevalent in recent years. The health of credit market depends un-surprisingly on market "credibility". Quite akin to the railroad stock bubble and the (in)famous tulip futures fiascos in the past , the total sum of global derivatives todays seems to have exceeded the true intrinsic values of the actual goods and services that these instruments are supposed to underpin. Laws of conservation and Newton's principle of inertia are no longer relevant. No longer can one confidently say for sure that one man's gains equal in exactitude to another's losses. Containment ? Lets hope and pray.

Nik Zafri :

Hi Melbournian, I must say that I'm impressed!

This research seem to miss out "CCI" (Consumer Confidence Index) which I think suitably describes what you meant by 'human emotion' in the context of economics. (it's obvious isn't it....the article is touching on 'purchasing power', 'manpower', business surroundings - which are all linked to the CCI)

Surprisingly I have also discovered that the Global CCI have always been missing (in fact seldom being measured) But; in US; it will suddenly 'appear' during proposal to hike interest rates by the Feds - hence one of the main indicators to the performance of the stock market worldwide.

I can understand why the CCI is sometimes there and sometimes not there...it's because of the big variance between one country to another. CCI is suppose to be the consumption indicator for GDP.

Lack of accountability on derivative instruments

What you have said - coincidentally reminding me of the core of Management - it is said that :

"Responsibility is a derivative of authority and accountability is a derivative of responsibility"

It's a paradox - I do not know if there is any connection.

Anyway, in this case, the derivative instrument (to the accounting standards esp. balance sheet) becomes a concern when it involve hedging and embedded derivatives (contract) - to determine of whether they (derivatives) are liabilities or asset. Otherwise positioning of finance and determining the derivatives value cannot be accurately achieved.

I'm not a qualified accountant but I do know the affects of hedging either the normal fair value, cashflow or currency. Now? As you said and I would to agree to it that most accounting (and auditing) bodies (even in Malaysia) are 'shouting' demanding accountability but again, it is easier said than done unless further education to include hedging activities and the volatility behind them in the context of derivatives are developed further.

Yes, breaking every rule in the book is now trendy!! It is also the reason why I am really interested in the concept of Knowledge-Based Economy and Knowledge Management but of course these two terms are moulded according to my style of intepretation - in short my experience. At times, I never trust figures, data and statistics but I use my instincts to make decisions.

Finally quoting you : "Let's Pray and Hope"

Sunday, June 22, 2008

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 10 July 2005 at 6:07pm

(In response to another e-mail)

Dear friend

I do hope that the next time, you will try to post your question 'in the open'. You can use pseudonym if you want to. I adopt a 'transparent' concept in networking so that all forum members may benefit from it - it's a learning and teaching environment.

Here's the information that you've asked and lucky you - it's in BM as you wanted. Judging by the your 'questioning techniques', I'm pretty sure that you are from Civil and Building/Structural Engineering Works.

Please be reminded that this model may subject to (generic) minor/major changes if you are involved in highway construction (civil)

There's a lot more where that came from.

I do not have the full answer to your question on 'aggregate and concerete' but I do have something that may help you out. (the following is ONLY a preliminary research (literature review) and not the thesis itself)

Besides British Standards 812, you should also cross reference to BS 882 as well. Please contact BSI or SIRIM Library (I am unsure if they have an equivalent MS Standard..perhaps you can enquire - but I do also know that some BS standards are also available over there)

On your other query of how or where to start, try to make your own assumption first by creating your own target on the interelationship between the following values with the concrete strength and the targetted ages typically 7, 14 & 28 days:

* Aggregate Impact/Crush Values (please specify grade), x% fine values, water absorption Value, LA Abrasion Value, Polished Stone Value

The usual testings are Crush Cube and Flexural tests with respective dimensions of x X y X z mm (e.g. 150 X 150 X 150mm).

Sungai Long Industries (Bina Puri Group - Tan Sri Tee Hock Seng) was one of the quarry (in Hulu Langat) used to be under my direct ISO 9001:2000 consulting supervision. (now certified) Perhaps you can also contact them and refer to my name (find a guy called Baljit - if he's still there) I'm also unsure if they would allow you to take samples from them.

On your question about engaging quality management consultant, I must advise you not to engage QM Consultant having inferior or no knowledge at all in the construction industry - otherwise you'll end up in chaos! I've seen a small number of quality consultants (with the necessary professional affiliations) have spoiled their clients (main contractors) by giving a 'xerox QMS documentation' from a manufacturing industry. A client of mine was very lucky to catch hold of me when THEIR clients are 'shouting' to get the earthworks & piling method statements but instead were being given some work instructions that has no absolute relation to the client's specification, drawing, design brief and even contractual requirements. Even the procedures are text based and NONE of them are flow-chart/process-flow based. Although I have managed to pacify the Client (who was about to terminate the contract of the main contractor), I must admit that I was 'a bit dissapointed' to see this is happening as the scenario may have somehow (to a certain degree) 'spoiled' the reputation of genuine/experienced consultants.

You appear to have the necessary qualifications and experience in Construction both QA/QC, I think with proper guide, you can do it!

Many years ago, somewhere between 1995-1997 when I was the weekly columnist for Utusan Malaysia talking about ISO 9000, TQM, OSH & EMS, there was another columnist for The Star talking about ISO 9000 in the Construction Industry. His name is Tim D. Alcock and we kinda know each other. At that time Tim was working with a consulting firm known as QMI. I will e-mail you his latest e-mail address in UK. Another 'senior' company that has been doing ISO 9000 in the construction industry - LONG before construction ISO became a trend in Malaysia (that time, it was known as BS 5750) is a company called Balfour Beatty (also involved in the country's double track project) where I was in the Engineering Department in one of their projects many years back. You may also wanted to get in touch with them as well if you're in UK.
CONQUAS telah dibangunkan oleh Lembaga Pembangunan Industri Pembinaan - (CIDB) Singapura selaras dengan kehendak agensi sektor awam dan badan-badan professional untuk mengukur tahap kualiti yang dicapai bagi sesuatu projek.


Objektif CONQUAS


Untuk menyelaraskan standard penilaian kualiti bagi projek pembinaan.

Untuk menjalankan objektif penilaian kualiti dengan :-

mengukur kerja-kerja yang telah dibina berbanding dengan standard dan spesifikasi tenaga kerja (workmanship)

menggunakan pendekatan secara persampelan mengikut kesesuaian projek.

Untuk memudahkan penilaian kualiti dijalankan secara sistematik dengan kos
dan masa yang berpatutan.


CONQUAS meletakkan standard keatas aspek-aspek pembinaan pelbagai serta menganugerahkan poin/markah bagi mana-mana kerja yang memenuhi kehendak standard. Markah-markah ini akan dicampur bagi mendapatkan skor/markah kualiti secara menyeluruh yang digelar CONQUAS Score bagi projek bangunan/pembinan.


CONQUAS 21 (Edisi ke-5 CONQUAS) merangkumi kebanyakan aspek dalam kerja-kerja am bangunan. Penilaian ini terdiri daripada 3 komponen utama:


Kerja-Kerja Struktur.
Kerja-Kerja Arkitektur (termasuk kerja-kerja luaran untuk kondominium dan taman perumahan)
Kerja-Kerja Mekanikal & Elektrikal (M&E).

Setiap komponen diperincikan pula kepada sab-komponen untuk penilaian. Contohnya, Komponen Struktur biasanya mempunyai sab-komponen seperti konkrit (tetulang), dll.


Walaubagaimanapun, penilaian ini tidak memasukkan kerja-kerja yang melibatkan kenderaan/loji berat seperti piling, heavy foundation dan kerja-kerja sab-struktur


Bangunan biasanya dinilai dari segi standard workmanship yang dicapai menerusi pemeriksaan. Penilaian Struktur dan M&E dilakukan sepanjang proses pembinaan manakalah Penilaian Arkitektur dijalankan keatas bangunan yang telah siap.


Selain daripada pemeriksaan tapak, penilaian ini juga mengambilkira ujian bahan dan prestasi funsi bagi khidmat dan pemasangan. Ujian ini akan menambahkan pengetahuan, kesedaran keselamatan dan kesihatan pekerjaan dll.


Standard minima telah dihasilkan oleh perbincangan dengan sesetengah sektor , pembangunan hartanah dan kontraktor berdasarkan spesifikasi am yang terbabit dalam projek masing-masing.


Dalam membangunkan CONQUAS 21, banyak pembelajaran dan ujian telah dijalankan bagi mengemaskinikan teknik ujian dan standard penilaian. Sistem Pemarkahan yang dijalankan bersama-sama dengan ujian akan memastikan ketepatan dan keselarasan.


Disesuaikan kembali daripada : CONQUAS 21
The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 01 August 2005 at 8:47pm

Q

Dear Nik, how do you define 'Customer Communication' in the Construction Industry'? (Civil and Building)

A

It is unfair for me to say that what I am about to say here suffice! I'll try to make it brief (as usual) Basically 'customer communication' is EVERYWHERE in the core processes of the construction industry be it civil and building or mechanical/electrical. Customer communication is not limited to how you contact your client but vice versa

During the Tendering Stage - initial site visit (Q & A), pre-q, review/request for justification of certain tender requirements or conceptual drawings/schematics, initial review/or rather dipute on contractual requirements prior to award or prior to acceptance, tender adjudication and negotiations, finalizing Bill of Quantities etc.

In the contract commencement stage, usually prior to site mobilization, there will be a need for you to prepare a Project Quality Plan together with the lists of Method Statements, ITP, master schedule, drawings/proposals etc. You will definitely need transmittal notes to send all these (or to communicate) to your client

Pre-Construction Stage - Immediately after site office setup/mobilization, you will be doing some sort of a 'kick-off meeting' - usually attended by the client where probably they tend to do some induction and briefing.

Construction Process

During ops, when the client started to get 'a lil bit more serious', they will start issuing 'non-conformances' (also known as customer complaint) followed by your ascertaining of root-causes and correction/corrective actions also constitute customer communication. Same goes to when the customer send in specifications, it is not only limited to 'customer property' that you have to look after but also generically related to customer communication.

When there are some 'deviation in construction works', 'architect/engineer instructions', 'variation orders', 'Project Progress Meeting' (with the client) etc.

Post Construction Stage

CPC and CMGD are at your Client's 'mercy'. For you, during this stage,usually you will start sending/conducting 'Customer Satisfaction Survey'. Thus, CPC, CMGD and your CSS form - constitute 'customer communication'. The complaints/comments issued by the client after CPC and during DLP (defects liability period) prior to CMGD also constitute the same thing - customer communication.

In General - 'Confirmation of Verbal/Telephone Instruction' by the Client, all types of correspondences including telephone/handphone calls, faxes, internet enquiry, e-mails, Intranet etc. are the general elements of customer communication.

so much for the 'brief explanation'.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008



Monday, June 16, 2008

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 24 August 2006 at 11:46pm

Nik Zafri Posted :

Someone has asked me to define what is PFI in the construction industry. I know that this question is very much related to the previous 9MP. So here's what wikipedia says:

The Private Finance Initiative specifies a method, developed initially by the United Kingdom government, to provides financial support for "Public Private Partnerships" (PPPs) between the public and private sectors. This has now been adopted by parts of Canada, France, the Netherlands, Portugal, Ireland, Norway, Finland, Australia, Japan and Singapore amongst others) as part of a wider reform program for the delivery of public services. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PFI

Besides than PFI, I'm sure you all have heard of these :

a) Design and Build, b) Turnkey, c) EPCC, d) Conventional,

Thus, PFI is an additional to these..
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anonymous wrote:
hi, i juz read your post on PFI. Is there any pros and cons in PFI? From wut i've read, PFI don't really works in UK. the article is as follows:

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported that the PFI procurement

process wastes an average of £2.45m per hospital scheme worth £60m or more since 1994. This represents 1.05% of a project's capital value. Ifthe trend continues, the CBI believes the waste could end up reaching at least £122m on upcoming hospitals. The procurement process was found to typically take 39 months when 18 months is recommended . (Source: Building, 21 April 2006)

What about Malaysia?

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Posted: 24 August 2006 at 11:46pm

Nik Zafri's Response

Good observations. One tiny thing…the PFI definition is not mine..it’s wikipedia’s (of course I reserve my comments..for now) Pros and cons…what doesn’t? If I read the statement you’ve inserted here carefully, there’s something along the line saying about ‘process wastes.’ Now if I’m not far too mistaken, in the thread – construction quality management, I did talk about ‘cost of quality’. And if I read it right again, the statement sounds like it’s taken from some audit report (intergrated financial and process audit – the accenture way)…yeah…they cover ‘cost of quality’ too – defects, system NCRs, logistics, and so on (even has years of projections on 'waste' alone) Well buddy, not only PFI, ‘waste’ issue is happening everywhere – even in Turnkey/Design & Build /EPCC /conventional…But again, this does not mean in any way that I’m with or not with PFI. Let's wait and see first. It's not really fair to pass a judgement in such a short time.
----------------------------
Posted: 15 November 2006 at 2:14pm

Azlin_Rahim wrote:

hello there.. hurm..finally i can write something here.. im so busy with my examination..heheheyup..still with the PFI.. as far as i concern PFI is one of the extension of privatison..however i am really confused with the PFI accordance with 9MP..its kinda looks like PFI have the similarities with the BOT, i guess..correct me if im wrong..thank you...


azlin_rahim wrote:
Hello back. In theory, I would agree with you that PFI could be the 'upgrade version' of privatisation and even not too wrong to say that PFI has the elements of 'Turnkey' & D & B as well, but according to this link,* there is a difference.


* Excerpt :

Those who say that PFI is privatisation have got it wrong because, while the private sector is rightly helping in public service delivery, the public interest is paramount.

PFI is thus quite distinct from privatisation – where for example in privatised health or education it would be the market and the price mechanism, not the public (sector), that defined and provided the service directly to those customers that can afford it and thus where the public sector can end up sacrificing both fairness and efficiency in the delivery of these core services.

So there should be no principled objection against PFI expanding into new areas where the public sector can procure a defined product adequately and at no risk to its integrity. The private sector may have a core skill the public sector can benefit and learn from, such as in the provision of employment and training services, the renovation of schools and colleges, major projects of urban regeneration and social housing, and the management of prisons. In each of these areas we can show that the use of private contractors is not at the expense of the public interest or need be at the expense of terms and conditions of employees. If we can secure greater efficiency in the provision of the service, it is one means by which the public interest is advanced.
-------------------------
BOT is the mechanism of PFI and they are not independent but rather complementary in a sense that PFI uses BOT method to move. Here's another good link:*

* Excerpt :

The Private Finance Initiative, or PFI hereafter, is a new initiative to construct and operate public facilities by the private sector. It is designed to make high quality and cost effective projects possible through utilizing the strength of the private sector and through business competition. It can use the private sector’s various financing method, good services, technologies, know-how, and marketing capability. In PFI, most popular schemes are BOT and BOO.

In the BOT scheme, a government grants the private sector to finance, build and operate a public facility. The private sector builds and operates the facility mainly at their own risk for certain period (say 10 to 50 years). After a certain concession period, the facility is transferred to the government.

In the BOO scheme, the difference from BOT is that the ownership of the project remains in the private sector.

PFI are used in a rather large projects, such as railways, highways, ports, airports, water supply, waste water treatment, telecommunication, power plants and pipeline gas distribution.

The roles of the governments in a host country and the private sector are as the follow:

-Grant of concession
-Tax incentives
-Appropriate land and space
-Subsidies or any assistance if necessary
-Minimum operating income guarantees
-Support loan and standby financing, and
- Risks which private sector can not bear, such as political
risk, environmental risk and so forth.

The role of the private sector is to do the following:

- High quality and cost effective public service
- Low cost finance arrangements
- Technology and skill transfer
- Contractual schedule control
- Management of four risks, namely
--Facility completion risk
--Operating risk
--Proceeds collecting risk, and
--Investor’s risk
------------------------------
Again, I'm neither saying nor commenting on PFI or RMK 9 in Malaysia due to (again) 'it's too early to tell' and unfair to theorize before seeing end-results...

Good luck in your studies.
------------------------------
Posted: 18 December 2006 at 10:07am

Response by Su_Za

I did my PhD reseach on PFI in the UK. So, just to share with everyone some info on PFI.
...............................................
Types of PFI Projects

Basically, there are three types of projects that the government encourages within the PFI; services sold to the public sector, financially free-standing projects and joint ventures (Treasury Taskforce, 1997a: para. 1.05-1.06; Akintoye et. al, 1998; and Allen, 2003). At present, the major focus of PFI activity has been on the first of these, i.e. services sold to the public sector (Treasury Taskforce, 1997a: para. 1.05)

a. Services sold to the public sector

The provision of public services using assets that are financed, designed, built and operated by a private sector consortium and are paid for by a public body through service charges (Armstrong, 1996 and The Scottish Parliament, 1999). These are normally referred to as Design, Build, Finance and Operate (DBFO) schemes. Under the scheme, the public sector purchaser needs to be assured that services provided will give greater value for money (VFM) than the conventional procurement. Examples of the DBFO projects are:

· the provision of prison places by the private sector through designing, building, financing and operating new prisons

· hospitals where the private sector will meet the costs of the building and take on the responsibility for the provision and management of ancillary services such as cleaning, catering and maintenance (Illidge and Cicmil, 2000)

In other words, at the heart of the DBFO approach the focus is changed away from the procurement of assets to the purchase of services associated with those assets (Dick and Akintoye, 1996).

b. Financially free-standing project

This is where the project is entirely financed and managed by the private sector. The revenues for the services supplied are mainly from payment by the end users. This type of project does not require a VFM test but does require government approval (Owen and Merna, 1997). In other words, public sector involvement is limited to enabling the project to go ahead through assistance with planning, licensing and other statutory procedures. The Second Severn Bridge and the Dartford River Crossing are the examples of projects under this category (Treasury Taskforce, 1997a: para. 1.06).

c. Joint ventures

For this type of project, the public and private sector work as a partnership but the private sector retains control. The public sector investment could be in the form of grant, guarantee or subordinated debt. In return, the public sector will receive a proportional share of any profit (Illidge and Cicmil, 2000). This type of project requires a VFM test and needs to conform to these criteria:

· Private sector partners in a joint venture should be chosen through competition
· Joint venture control held by private sector
· A clear definition of the government’s contribution and its limitations
· Clear agreement of risk and reward allocation, defined and agreed in advance, ensuring that the private sector is genuinely assuming some of the risk.

The Channel Tunnel rail link, Croydon Tramlink, Manchester’s Metrolink and urban regeneration schemes are examples of joint venture projects.
The Star Global Malaysians Forum

preferred-anonymous student by e-mail wrote:
Dear Encik Nik, I like to know in general of the common methods of building insulation and the insulators that is no longer used and why?


Dear student, thank you for your query. Please be be more specific in your question as building insulation methods depend on so many factors e.g. type of building/structure, calculations and types of insulation e.g. blankets, radiant barrier, batts, (even loose fills), cellulose, foams, rigid panels, fiberglass, SIP etc. Please help me to understand.

The insulators you've mentioned - I think - not only no longer be used but have been banned in the market as well eg. asbestos & urea formaldehyede foam.
--------------------------------
Posted: 26 July 2007 at 1:36pm

sam by email wrote:
Mr. Nik, I am joining a newly-operational factory having interest in precast concrete. I did not have much experience in this line - except the basics. Since I'm expected to do some presentations to contractors, I would like to get any useful tips from you on how precast concrete works.


Thanks Sam for the question. I'm glad that I do have a little bit of experience in precast technology. If I may comment, you didn't specifically mentioned what type of precast products that your company are dealing with. The standard ones are beams (upright, rectangular, T-inverted), drains (inlet/trench/cast-in)/manholes/culverts, railings, fences, railway ties/sleepers, core slab (hollow),planks, retaining walls etc.

The other type is the 'customized' precast products using special moulds/forms that can be reused again and again. This type is usually well-oiled and undergo two or more types of curing - i.e. 1. in the form itself, and 2. in the yard : prior to delivery to site.

These types are useful for special constructions like bridges, tunnels, buildings etc. e.g. Tunnel segments (RAPID/PUTRA LRT Tunnel from Ampang Park to Masjid Jamek), precast facade, load bearing walls,columns (single/double tier with corbels-> e.g. highways)
etc.

Precast (especially the modern/special types) is a wonderful discovery indeed - one of my ex-MD used to call it 'Lego Technology' (e.g. Teachers Quarters in Gombak) It's a bit pricy but worth investing - it's fire & sound proof, can stand extreme weather (durability also guaranteed), longer shelf-life, very time saving - imagine this, while you're placing foundations at site, your walls are being manufactured (or cast at a different place) at the same time etc.)

(wow..I'm talking like a salesman)
------------------------------
Posted: 10 February 2007 at 2:33pm

emailquery wrote:
Our consultants have issued NCRs regarding accurate positioning of piles. We have argued with the consultants that positioning of piles depends on the type of work that is being done but failed to convince the C & S consultant (working for the client). As an experienced QA/QC man cum a Consultant, what do you think, Encik Nik?"


First of all, you are almost correct (theoretically speaking as I'm not there at the project site..so it's hard to assume or say) in terms of 'depending on type of work' and piling positioning (it doesn't have to be too accurate) - unless you're talking about bridges (spaced footing clusters), THEN the consultants are right!

I assume you're talking about building and that you've reached the pile driving stage. For example in in a large mat foundation supported on piles at relatively wide centers- of course it is impossible for you to get an exact measurement. Strong templates may also be applied to ensure proper centering if close tolerances apply.

Handle pile with proper care - set plumbs in the lead. Attention is required for precast piles lifting e.g. use of rigging, to avoid cracking the piles. Installed but misaligned/crooked piles cannot be repaired anymore..remember..

The rest are hammering and driving like the weight of hammer vs pile being drived and the use of jetting to facilitate pile-driving.

Anyway, you should honour the clients/consultants NCR as what they really want is the BEST measurement you can come out with. After all they are professional engineers.
The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 13 September 2006 at 8:36pm

Question by stingray2000

Hi Nik, I'm have a zero knowledge on the construction/building. But I just wonder how to build a house/apartment on the land rising on the sea? Is the any website for the beginner ?
--------------------------
Posted: 13 September 2006 at 8:46pm

Nik Zafri's response

I'm sure you've been to resorts/hotels near the sea? The concept is very much the same. Before I answer to your queries...I'm curious...why would you want to build one when you can easily find lots of finished properties near the sea?
----------------------------
Posted: 13 September 2006 at 8:57pm |

Stingray2000's response

Just for my curiousity, I would like to know more about the concept of raising the land from the sea in malaysia? I heard from rumours that the housing build on the sea will have potential problem(land sinking etc) later on...have you seen this issue before ? It remind me the collapse of condominium case ...

Just for my curiousity, I would like to know more about the concept of raising the land from the sea in malaysia? I heard from rumours that the housing build on the sea will have potential problem(land sinking etc) later on...have you seen this issue before ? It remind me the collapse of condominium case ...
-----------------------------
Posted: 13 September 2006 at 9:48pm

Nik Zafri's Response :

Exactly why I asked. And it's pretty costly as well - in the context of raising the land - dredging expenditures - perhaps may require more sand as well for filling (of course - bays would become deeper/wider increasing erosion - not to mention disturbing inhabitants of marine life around the offshore sand deposits)

Not only houses & condominiums but chalets, hotels etc. using the similar concept are also facing the same risks. (I'm sure they are all well-aware of that)

We can only try our best to prevent such negative effects like planting more big trees - coconut/palm, 'sophisticated' soil treatment (vs shrinkage), drive the concrete foundation piles deeply into the sand, pile caps supporting casting concrete piers, floor slabs supported by masonry shear walls/steel tube columns etc.

But again, the 'force of nature' can be too strong sometimes and I do pity those businesses like hotels, chalets, yacth clubs, marinas because I love these places for good vacations and scenic views but I have also noticed the cost of maintenance and possible migration everytime I visited them - but what to do? What if I'm in their shoes? Tourism business is 'damn' good and it a definite money-generator and the profit will at least 'top up' the maintenance/migration costs. (I'm being positive here actually)

Some of the tips I can give to you are (besides what I've mentioned in the 2nd para) - be 'alert' on certain climate shift, atmospheric conditions (ie temperatures), news/history of disasters, rain pour, possible erosions, researches on greenhouse effects, inundation, type of barriers/dikes/polders used near the seaside, pumping system (sand/sea water) etc. - in short you should start some serious homeworks if you plan to buy or build one.

Good luck.
ARPANET PERINTIS INTERNET
Kajian Oleh : NIK ZAFRI ABDUL MAJID

Artikel berikut diambil dari pelbagai sumber termasuk pengalaman pengarang sendiri menggunakan sistem NSFNET/USENET (yang terdahulu). Ianya telah diolah kembali dengan penuh teliti oleh pengarang bagi tujuan untuk mudah difahami oleh pembaca.

Hakcipta Terpelihara 2000 - Nik Zafri Abdul Majid. Penyalinan/penggunaan kembali harta intelek dalam apa juga bentuk tanpa kebenaran adalah bersalahan dari segi Undang-Undang.


SUMBER 1 - RINGKASAN ARPANET

ARPANET merupakan rangkaian ujikasi, diwujudkan pada tahun 1969 oleh Agensi Projek Penyelidikan Lanjutan Jabatan Pertahanan (ARPA) ARPANET memudahkan penggunanya berkongsi maklumat dan sumber serta menjadi pelantar ujian bagi teknologi rangkaian.

Hasil kajian ARPANET telah membuahkan protokol TCP/IP, yang menentukan cara data dihantar dan dikongsi dalam rangkaian jaringan. Penggunaan TCP/IP secara lebih meluas hari ini telah melahirkan INTERNET.

ARPANET terus berkembang dan pada tahun 1983 dipecahkan kepada 2 rangkaian - ARPANET dan MILNET. Akhirnya pada tahun 1990, ARPANET dihentikan dan digantikan dengan NSFNET.

ARPANET adalah ringkasan kepada Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) Network. Rangkaian ini ditubuhkan pada tahun 1969 oleh ARPA dan dibiayai oleh Jabatan Pertahanan. Pada awalnya, rangkaian ini hanyalah ujikasi yang digunakan untuk tujuan penyelidikan, pembangunan dan menguji teknologi rangkaian.

Jaringan awal telah menghubungkan 4 buah komputer hos di 4 buah universiti di Amerika Syarikat bagi memudahkan penggunanya berkongsi maklumat dan sumber.

Pada tahun 1972, terdapat 37 buah komputer hos yang mempunyai talian ke ARPANET. ARPA kini telah ditukar menjadi DARPA(Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency).

Pada tahun 1973, ARPANET telah melintasi sempada Amerika Syarikat dengan bertapak di England and Norway.

Sasaran utama ARPANET ialah membangunkan rangkaian yang akan tetap beroperasi walaupun terdapat sebahagian daripada rangkaian mengalami kegagalan. Kajian dalam bidang ini telah menemukan set peraturan rangkaian atau protokol yang dipanggil TCP/IP (Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol).

TCP/IP merupakan protokol yang menentukan cara data dipindahkan menerusi rangkaian. Ianya juga mampu menerima komputer yang menggunakan sistem pengoprasian yang berbeza seperti DOS dan UNIX untuk mempermudahkan perkongsian data di rangkaian.

ARPANET berfungsi sebagai rangkaian tulang belakang yang memberi laluan kepada rangkaian tempatan yang lebih kecil mempunyai talian ke tulang belakang utamanya. Apabila rangkaian-rangkaian lebih kecil ini mempunyai talian ke ARPANET, dengan sendirinya mereka akan mempunyai talian antara satu dengan yang lain.

Pada tahun 1983, DARPA mencadangkan TCP/IP menjadi set yang piawai untuk komputer yang mempunyai talian ke ARPANET. Ini bermakna rangkaian yang lebih kecil (contohnya pusat pengajian tinggi-universiti dsb.) perlu menggunakan TCP/IP untuk mempunyai talian ke ARPANET.

TCP/IP boleh didapati secara percuma dan digunakan secara meluas oleh rangkaian-rangkaian. Peneybaran TCP/IP telah membantu membina Internet - rangkaian/jaringan yang menggunakan protokol TCP/IP atau berinteraksi dengan rangkaian-rangkaian TCP/IP.

ARPANET terus berkembang melibatkan rangkian universiti dan kerajaan.

Bagi memudahkan pengurusan yang semakin berkembang, pada tahun 1983, ARPANET telah dipecahkan kepada dua bahagian rangkain iaitu:

ARPANET - terus digunakan untuk tujuan penyelidikan dan pembangunan rangkaian.

MILNET - rangkaian yang tidak diklasifikasikan dan terhad kepada laman ketenteraan.

Pada tahun 1986, jaringan tulang belakan yang lebih pantas diperkenalkan iaitu NSFNET (National Science Foundation Network). Pada tahu 1989, terdapat 10,000 komputer hos mempunyai talian kepada INTERNET, atau "rangkaian kepada rangkaian"

Disebabkan kejayaan NSFNET, kesemua laman yang mempunyai talian di ARPANET diserapkan peringkat demi peringkat ke NSFNET dan pada tahun 1990, ARPANET telah dimansuhkan.



SUMBER BERIKUTNYA

ABSTRAK

ARPANET atau Advanced Research Projects Agency Network adalah merupakan ciptaan sistem perintis kepada evolusi INTERNET. Ianya bermula menerusi projek ARPANET naungan Jabatan Pertahanan Amerika Syarikat. ARPANET berjaya dicipta disebabkan kualiti sokongan dan stail pengurusan ARPA. Dengan mengimbas kembali sejarah ARPANET yang kini mempunyai nilai estetika yang tinggi akan jawapan kepada budaya jaringan 'tanpa sempadan' yang kita kenali kini sebagai internet. Ianya juga telah menjadi pemangkin yang kuat kepada subjek sains komputer.

Sejarah ARPA dan ARPANET

Boleh dikatakan ARPANET dimanifestasikan hasil daripada penyelidikan dan pembangunan yang lama dan penuh ketelitian. Agensi Advanced Research Projects telah ditubuhkan berorientasikan penyelidikan dan bukannya produk berasaskan peperangan semata-mata. Penubuhannya adalah berdasarkan reaksi Amerika Syarikat terhadap pelancaran Sputnik pada tahun 1957 oleh pihak Russia. ARPA yang diketuai oleh Dr. J.C.R. Licklider telah ditugaskan untuk menyelidik cara-cara memaksimakan pelaburan keatas komputer menerusi Penyelidikan Arahan dan Kawalan (CCR)

Kehadiran Licklider telah telah menjadikan ARPA sebagai sebuah pusat akademik komputer yang terbaik. Tatkala itu corak pemerosesan berkelompok (batch) berkomputer telah diperkenalkan. Licklider telah membaikpulih sistem arahan dan kawalan dengan memperkenalkan unsur-unsur interaktif ke dalam pemerosesan berkelompok sehingga terlahirnya Teknik Pemerosesan Maklumat (IPT/IPTO).

Tujuan Licklider memperkenalkan perubahan berkenaan adalah bertujuan untuk mempermudahkan masyarakat berinteraksi dan berkomunikasi secara rangkaian sistem perkongsian maklumat/ditalian. ARPA telah membawa arus baru malah anjakan paradigma dalam bidang sains komputer yang selama ini menghadkan penggunaan komputer sebagai mesin matematik yang canggih.

Teknik Pemerosesan Maklumat terus ditingkatkan secara berterusan sehingga terlahirnya sistem ARPANET yang kini dikenali sebagai INTERNET. Kewujudan ARPANET tidak akan berlaku tanpa komitmen yang ditunjukkan oleh ahli "keluarga" ARPA terhadap penyelidikan berterusan tanpa memikirkan soal keuntungan terlebih dahulu. ARPANET juga pernah diperkembangkan menjadi sistem USENET yang banyak menekankan kepada kesesuaian dan kepelbagaian penggunaan jaringan, perisian dan perkakasan komputer serta kesannya dalam komunikasi.

Tanpa ARPANET, tidak mungkin wujudnya Internet yang kini telah digunakan sebagai pelantar perniagaan kira-kira 2 1/2 dekad selepas kemunculan "bapanya" iaitu ARPANET. Ramai tokoh sains dan intelektual antrabangsa berpendapat bahawa kejayaan ARPANET dan kemudiannya internet bukanlah sesuatu yang terlalu teknikal tetapi lebih tertumpu kepada faktor-faktor kemanusiaan. Contohnya, bagaimana sistem jaringan ini telah mempermudahkan komunikasi; umpamanya menerusi e-mail; dengan hanya menggunakan komputer sebagai "orang tengah". Ianya juga telah mempermudahkan perkongsian maklumat secara bebas dan benar-benar demokratik disamping meninggikan ilmu pengetahuan dikalangan masyarakat yang tahu memanfaatkan maklumat.

ARPANET terus ditingkatkan dengan adanya protokol komunikasi secara inter-host yang melibatkan karektor dan transmisi blok, pemeriksaan ralat dan penghantaran kembali, komputer dan pengenalan pengguna.

Dalam usaha untuk mewujudkan jaringan antara komputer, 2 masalah penting perlu diselesaikan terlebih dahulu iaitu :-

1. Untuk membina satu 'sabrangkaian' yang terdiri daripada litar telefon dan nod swis dimana reliability, karektoristik tangguh (delay), keupayaan dan kos akan memudahkan perkongsian sumber antara komputer secara jaringan
2. Untuk memahami, merekabentuk dan membangunkan protokol dan prosedur dalam sistem pengoprasian pada setiap komputer yang dihubungkan, bagi memudahkan penggunaan sabrangkaian yang baru dalam perkongsian sumber.

ARPA juga telah mengadakan pelbagai pertemuan pada bulan Oktober, 1967 bagi membincangkan isu protokol dan spesifikasi untuk Interface Pemeroses Pesanan (IMP). Interface Pemeroses Pesanan akan menentukan kaedah menghubungkan komputer hos menerusi talian telefon. Perhubungan hos ke rangkaian akan bergantung kepada jenis vendor. 19 hos telah diserapkan kedalam program "Rangkaian ARPA"

Kontraktor ARPA telah mula sibuk memikirkan aspek-aspek pelbagai yang relevan dengan perancangan dan pembinaan ARPANET. Sebahagian daripada tugasan berkenaan ialah menentukan pra-rekabentuk rangkaian dan sabrangkaian Interface Pemerosesan Pesanan.

Pada penghujung tahun 1967, ARPA telah menugaskan Institut Penyelidikan Stanford; yang diketuai oleh Elmer Shapiro; bagi membangunkan spesifikasi sistem komunikasi.

Kajian Perancangan Program ARPA untuk mewujudkan ARPANET yang bertajuk "Perkongsian Sumber dalam Rangkaian Komputer" telah dikeluarkan pada bulan Jun, 1968.

Pada penghujung Disember, 1968, suatu kajian yang bertajuk "Parameter Rekabentuk Rangkaian Komputer" pula telah dikeluarkan oleh Institut Penyelidikan Stanford hasil kerjasama Shapiro, Glen Culler, Robert, Wessler dan Professor Leonard Kleinrock (UCLA)

Secara keseluruhannya laporan-laporan dan kajian berasaskan ARPANET bertujuan untuk membangunkan pengalaman dalam sambungan jaringan komputer bagi meningkatkan produktiviti dalam penyelidikan komputer menerusi perkongsian sumber. Ini dicetuskan oleh keperluan teknikal dalam suasana saintifik dan ketenteraan. Kesemua pusat penyelidikan komputer naungan Teknik Pemeroses Maklumat akan menjadi pelantar ujian yang unik terhadap ujikaji rangkaian komputer selain daripada memberikan manfaat kepada pihak ketenteraan. Perkhidmatan Pembekalan Jabatan Pertahanan telah bersetuju untuk menjadi agen/panel pemilihan kontraktor untuk ARPA. Jadual 5 tahun untuk pembelian, pembinaan dan operasi rangkaian telah dirangka dengan belanjawan yang mencecah angka jutaan ringgit.

Perkhidmatan Pembekalan Jabatan Pertahanan yang berpusat di Washington telah mengenalpasti ratusan kontraktor berpotensi. Banyak penender yang mendakwa mereka mampu meningkatkan lagi rangkaian yang diperkenalkan oleh ARPA menerusi rekabentuk dan pembangunan sabrangkaian antara Interface Pemeroses Pesanan.

Akhirnya Firma BBN telah berjaya memenangi kontrak berkenaan. Namun begitu masalah teknikal kedua masih belum dapat diselesaikan. Satu protokol bagi membenarkan hos untuk berkomunikasi antara satu dengan lain menerusi sabrangkaian perlu dibangunkan. Ini bermakna perisian dan perkakasan tidak kira jenisnya perlu dihubungkan dengan sabrangkaian IMP. Tugas ini amat mencabar disebabkan setiap tapak/laman hos adalah berbeza disebabkan corak pengaturcaraan, pembangunan perisian serta rekabentuk perkakasan.

4 laman ARPANET yang pertama ditugaskan untuk membekalkan perkhidmaatan sokongan perangkan atau sumber unik. Mereka juga memiliki keupayaan teknikal untuk membangunkan protokol komunikasi antara komputer. 4 laman berkenaan adalah :-

1. UCLA
2. Pusat Pengukuran Rangkaian SRI
3. Pusat Maklumat Rangkaian UCSB
4. Matematik Interaktif Culler-Fried UTAH - grafik (hidden line removal)

Laman yang pertama menggunakan IMP adalah UCLA diketuai oleh Professor Kleinrock yang telah lama melibatkan diri dalam pembangunan ARPANET. Usahanya mengenai kefahaman terhadap teori queue bagi mengukur aktiviti rangkaian telah banyak membantu ARPANET. Bagi memperkuatkan ketepatan statistik untuk tujuan analisis, maka laman UCLA perlu berorientasikan pengukuran. UCLA kemudiannya ditugaskan menjadi Pusat Pengukuran Rangkaian (NMC) ARPANET.

Kumpulan Kerja Rangkaian

Setelah UCLA dipilih menjadi NMC, masalah teknikal selanjutnya ialah bagi menjadikan hos-hos dapat berkomunikasi menggunakan protokol. Untuk ini, Elmer Shapiro daripada SRI pula dipilih. Pada peringkat awalannya, walaupun mesyuarat demi mesyuarat (sekitar tahun 1968) diadakan dikalangan ahli Kumpulan Kerja Rangkaian (NWG) yang terdiri daripada pakar-pakar pengaturcaraan, namun tiada resolusi konkrit dapat dicapai bagi masalah yang melibatkan jalinan angkutan atau pelantar perhubungan tahap rendah.

Walaubagaimanapun, laporan penyudahan ARPANET menganggap mesyuarat NWG inilah yang menjadi titik-tolak kepada kemunculan ARPANET. Antara ahli yang aktif adalah Steve Carr daripada Universiti Utah, Stephen Crocker dari UCLA, Jeff Rulifson daripada SRI dan Ron Stoughton dari UCSB.

Resolusi generik terakhir yang dicapai ialah perlunya pembinaan set jalinan protokol dengan perkhidmatan angkutan am di peringkat bawahan serta aplikasi pelbagai untuk protokol spesifik bagi peringkat atasan.

Antara pembangunan protokol awalan ialah DEL (Decode-Encode-Language) dan NIL (Network Interchange Language). Ianya wujud untuk memberikan penerangan terhadap "penerimaan akhir" untuk memahami bagaimana penghantaran maklumat berlaku.

Setelah BBN mengemukakan spesifikasi interface hos-IMP pertamanya pada 30 Ogos, 1969, NWG, BBN, dan Network Analysis Corporation (NAC) telah membuat pertemuannya buat julung kalinya. NAC adalah kontraktor ARPA bagi mengenalpasti rekabentuk topologikal ARPANET, menganalisa kos, prestasi dan karektoristik reliability. Memandangkan semua pihak yang terlibat mempunyai keutamaan-keutamaan tersendiri, mesyuarat tersebut menempuh pelbagai kerumitan. BBN hanya berminat dalam pembangunan perhubungan reliable pada tahap rendah. Para pengaturcara daripada laman hos pula berminat untuk menjadikan hos sebagai cara berkomunikasi antara satu dengan yang lain menggunakan program pada tahap tinggi.

Sebulan kemudian suatu mesyuarat di Utah diadakan bagi membincangkan perkara ini dikalangan perekabentuk protokol. Semua draf laporan diedarkan untuk mendapat komen dimana draf berkenaan telah menerima sambutan hangat.

Crocker kemudiannya menggantikan Shapiro sebagai Pengerusi NWG, beliau meneruskan usaha pembangunan rebentuk protokol hos ke hos. Walaupun Crocker mempunyai wawasan serta menyedari betapa besarnya potensi komunikasi komputer dengan komputer, namun untuk merekabentuk protokol bukanlah perkara yang mudah. Perkakasan interface dan intrusion yang sesuai untuk sistem pengoperasian diperlukan dalam apa juga rekabentuk dan ini dapat menimbulkan kerumitan pada setiap laman.

Dua IMP yang pertama diketengahkan oleh UCLA dan SRI telah membantu pelaksanaan protokol kerja oleh NWG. Set protokol hos yang pertama diperkenalkan ialah login remote untuk penggunaan interaktif (TELNET) dan kaedah penyalinan fail antara hos remote (FTP)

Pada ketika itu, sokongan hanya ditumpukan kepada perhubungan pengguna-pelayan asimetrik. Hasil mesyuarat Utah dengan Larry Roberts pada bulan Disember, 1969, suatu rekabentuk protokol hos-hos simetrik yang dikenali sebagai Program Kawalan Rangkaian (NCP) yang pada ketika itu bertumpu kepada pengurusan talian dalam sistem pengoprasian.

Kumpulan Kerja Rangkaian NWG terus mendapat sambutan hangat dan lebih banyak laman dibina dan dihubungkan kepada ARPANET sehingga suatu Sidang Usahasama Komputer Musim Panas telah diadakan pada tahun 1971 di Atlantic City dan selanjutnya di MIT. Hasilnya amat memberangsangkan dimana hampir kesemua peserta mencuba login kedalam laman rakan sekerja mereka.

Cabaran utama dalam merekabentuk protokol hos ialah menjadikannya berupaya menampung semua jenis komunikasi serta sesuai pula untuk apa juga sistem komputer. Usaha awalan melibatkan entiti yang dipanggil NCP bagi mengadakan talian, memutuskan talian, menukar talian dan aliran kawalan. Pendekatan berjalinan telah diambil supaya prosedur kompleks seperti FTP dapat dibina berdasakan prosedur hos NCP.

Steve Crocker telah melantik Alex McKenzie dan Jon Postel bagi menggantikannya sebagai Pengerusi Bersama NWG. McKenzie dan Postel meneruskan usaha meninggikan tahap ARPANET secara bersinambung.

ARPA (Advanced Research Projects Agency) merupakan badan pengurusan yang membiayai saintis akademik komputer. Konsep pengurusan pintar yang diamalkan oleh ARPA telah menyebabkan saintis mencipta ARPANET. BBN telah membantu dalam pembangunan teknik paket swis bagi mengagihkan maklumat.

Kumpulan Kerja Rangkaian akhirnya membuka dokumen mengenai ARPANET untuk mendapat komen dan maklumbalas warga teknikal umum dan tindakan ini telah meningkatkan kemajuan teknikal ARPANET.

EPILOG

ARPANET menerusi NWG telah merintis jalan kepada pembangunan protokol TCP/IP (protokol kawalan penghantaran/protokol internet) yang lebih banyak menyelesaikan masalah keupayaan dan lain-lain.

Kejayaan sebenar ARPANET; mengikut ramai intelektual dan pakar teknikal; ialah kerana ianya dibuka kepada umum. Disinilah ARPANET mengalami peningkatan berterusan dari segi kualiti sehingga terlahirnya INTERNET.

Pendekatan "dari bawah ke atas" ternyata berbeza dengan "pendekatan atas ke bawah" (atau Pengurusan Kualiti Menyeluruh - TQM) yang banyak diamalkan oleh pembangunan protokol lain. Pembangunan yang menggunakan pendekatan "atas ke bawah" (centralisme MBO) lebih sulit dan tidak telus. Dengan konsep bawah ke atas (dan akses percuma kepada dokumentasi dan spesifikasi protokol untuk diberikan komen), model ARPANET telah membuka ruang kepada orang awam dan warga teknikal sejara keseluruhan bergabung tenaga meninggikan taraf protokol ke tahap sebaik mungkin.

Disini jelas sudut dayasaing dan imej korporat ARPANET yang begitu mengambilkira dan teliti terhadap kehendak klien, kontraktor, subkontraktor, pelanggan dan pengguna secara am. Selain itu, para saintis komputer juga diberikan galakan yang kuat dalam usaha mereka menerusi falsafah ARPA. Teknik Pemerosesan Maklumat (IPT) sentiasa memberikan panduan pengurusan secara harian kepada para kontraktornya. Corak pengurusan yang efektif juga memainkan peranan menerusi kontrak penyelidikan yang agak terbuka dimana kontraktor bebas untuk membuat inovasi selagi untuk meningkatkan ARPANET.

Draf Laporan Penyudahan ARPANET menyebut :-

"Pembangunan ARPANET merupakan suatu aktiviti yang padu dan ianya dihasilkan oleh sidang saintis yang terbaik di Amerika Syarikat. Dengan itu, segala masalah teknikal utama mendapat perhatian dan pendekatan terperinci terhadap masalah-masalah berkenaan sentiasa berubah."

Hasilnya, sebagaimana disebut oleh Laporan Penyudahan, ialah perspektif baru dalam arena perkakasan komunikasi komputer dan bukannya semata-mata terhad kepada unsur pengiraan, pengukuran dan matematik. Walaupun begitu, masih banyak pihak yang terlibat dalam sains komputer belum begitu memahami kenapa ARPANET merupakan breakthrough dalam bidang mereka. Jika falsafah ARPANET tidak dapat difahami sepenuhnya, sudah tentu INTERNET juga akan gagal difahami.



Nota Pengarang

Setakat artikel ini ditulis, internet sedang dipertingkatkan menjadi peer-to-peer network - adalah dipercayai konsep ini akan diasaskan kepada ARPANET/USENET/NSFNET (tetapi lebih maju)

Konsep peer-to-peer network dijangka memberikan laluan langsung/terus-menerus kepada mana-mana pelayan atau komputer peribadi (rantaian pelayan-komputer-pelayan) yang berdekatan bagi memudahkan downloading/uploading serta pertukaran/perkongsian maklumat/sumber, e-dagang (dan seumpamanya) dengan lebih cepat, teratur, terancang, telus, murah dan menjimatkan kos. Ianya juga dijangka akan mudah memanifestasikan unsur multimedia secara maya dengan gangguan talian yang minima.

Unsur ini juga akan menggabungkan elemen-elemen yang sedia ada seperti WAN/LAN, Jaringan LAN Tanpa Wayar (WLN), Intranet, Jaringan Maya Peribadi (VPN) termasuklah Protokol Aplikasi Tanpa Wayar (WAP). PC, sistem pengoprasian, (dikatakan mengambilkira unsur lebih mudah ala-DOS tetapi lebih canggih - mungkin seperti Linux), perkakasan dan pelantar (dikatakan akan mengambilkira sistem ala-Macintosh dengan pelantar Motorola) akan ditingkatkan tarafnya ke tahap ala-kerangka utama atau komputer mini. Ianya mungkin akan diperkembangkan kepada televisyen digital, jam tangan, pad, dsb.

Konsep ini masih dalam perbincangan kerana masalah sekuriti seperti firewall, SET, SSL, isu pengekalan internet sebagai alternatif layaran menerusi gateway, ISP yang lebih versatile, Broser yang sesuai, satelit/bandwidth dsb.(banyak lagi aspek) termasuklah anjakan paradigma pengguna peer-to-peer network untuk menjadi lebih telus dan mewujudkan penyatuan dalam jaringan.

Nota Tambahan

Kampus Rangkaian Komputer UCLA (CCN) mendapat talian ke ARPANET (ditawarkan oleh ARPA/IPTO) adalah hasil usaha gigih Professor L. Kleinrock and muridnya, termasuk S. Crocker, J. Postel, dan V. Cerf. Kumpulan ini bukan sahaja terlibat dalam rekabentuk asal rangkaian dan protokol hos, tetapi juga menguruskan Pusat Pengukuran Rangkaian (NMC).

Kumpulan penyelidik yang mendapat sokongan kuat dari ARPA/IPTO telah diberikan galakan kuat untuk merekabentuk dan melaksanakan protokol, prosedur dan modifikasi program komputer hos supaya dapat digunakan dalam sabrangkaian. UCLA kemudiannya diberikan tugas menguruskan NMC dengan tujuan menilai, menyelaras, membina dan menyelenggarakan prestasi rangkaian tersebut. SRI pula ditawarkan oleh NMC untuk mengumpulkan maklumat mengenai rangkaian berkenaan, sumber hos, dan mewujudkan peralatan penyimpanan dan akses kepada maklumat berkenaan. Selain itu kebanyakan kontraktor adalah pembangun protokol hos bagi tujuan komunikasi pelbagai hala menerusi sabrangkaian. Kumpulan Kerja Rangkaian (NWG) pula terdiri daripada mereka yang berkepentingan daripada laman hos yang diberikan galakan oleh ARPA. NWG dianggap sebagai pihak 'separa' berkuasa dalam bidang mereka.

Pusat Rangkaian Maklumat

Akses kepada sumber yang diagihkan telah meninggalkan impak terhadap perkhidmatan maklumat (samada berpusat atau diagihkan) yang memudahkan pengguna untuk mempelajari sumber-sumber ini. Ini telah dikenalpasti dalam mesyuarat PI di Michigan, Musim Bunga 1967. Tatkala itu, Doug Engelbart dan kumpulannya di Institut Penyelidikan Stanford sedang melibatkan diri dalam pembangunan dan penyelidikan bagi membekalkan kemudahan berasaskan komputer untuk meninggikan interaksi manusia. Akhirnya, Insitut Penyelidikan Stanford telah ditukar menjadi Pusat Rangkaian Maklumat (NIC) bagi ARPANET. Dengan bermulanya pelaksanaan rangkaian pada tahun 1969, NIC juga telah dibina di SRI.

Pemasangan IMP yang Pertama

IMP yang pertama telah dihasilkan di UCLA pada bulan awal September, 1969. Kemudian ianya dilaksanakan secara berperingkat-peringkat setiap bulan. Di UCLA, sebuah interface hos IMP telah dibina. SDS, pembangun Sigma 7, bersama-sama dengan Mike Wingfield, graduan UCLA telah mengorbankan masa (6 minggu) dan kewangan serta pada kos yang minima untuk menyiapkannya. Bahagian perisian pula mengambil masa beberapa minggu untuk membuat debugging keatas perisian. BBN telah menghantar IMP mereka pada bulan penghujung bulan Ogos disamping membantu dalam peningkatan perisian.

IMP kedua telah dihantar ke SRI pada awal bulan Oktober dan ARPA semakin berjaya. Larry Roberts dan Barry Wessler telah membuat lawatan pada bulan November dan ARPA berjaya mendemonstrasikan hubungan langsung dengan SRI menerusi sistem ala-TELNET.

Persidangan Membincangkan Dokumentasi

Kumpulan Kerja Rangkaian terdiri daripada Steve Carr-Utah, Jeff Rulifson dan Bill Duvall - SRI, serta Steve Crocker dan Gerard Deloche - UCLA.

NWG menaruh minat yang tinggi terhadap perisian hos, strategi menggunakan rangkaian dan ujikaji awalan keatas rangkaian.

Kandungan

Kandungan nota NWG mengandungi pendapat, idea dan lain-lain mengenai aspek perisian hos dan lain-lain aspek berhubung dengan rangkaian. Setiap nota mengandungi apa juga komen samada teknikal mahupun falsafah diambilkira. Nota-nota yang diterima biasanya menjadi input kepada standard atau piawaian.

Piawaian-piawaian yang agak terperinci ini diwujudkan dengan dua motif utama. Pertama, setiap kenyataan bertulis adalah ipso facto autoritatif, dan diharapkan akan dapat menggalakkan pertukaran dan diskusi yang tidak begitu rumit. Kedua, setiap pendapat berbentuk falsafah diharapkan akan menjadi inspirasi untuk mewujudkan idea-idea teknikal pula. (lihat kes Leonardo De-Vinci yang melukis helikopter diatas salah sebuah lukisan cat minyak kanvasnya yang akhirnya menjadi idea pula kepada saintis untuk menciptanya dengan unsur-unsur teknikal - pengarang)

DOKUMEN-DOKUMEN/NOTA NWG/RFC

1. Perisian HOS - Steve Crocker dan Bill Duvall



1. Jadual Rangkaian

2. Falsafah NIL

3. Spesifikasi NIL

4. Perisian HOS - Kajian lebih terperinci



b. Cadangan DTP dan FTP proposals"

c. Persidangan Paket Video Remote dan Angkutan/Rangkaian.

d. Komen BBN

e. Cadangan penyelarasan status talian

f. Prosedur Protokol Rangkaian

g. Saiz Bit untuk talian

h. Protokol kemasukan kerja Remote yang dicadangkan

i. Pertimbangan kembali konvensyen soket.

j. ICP

k. Protokol Akses Fail

l. Protokol Pindah Fail (FTP)

m. Protokol Hos/Hos

n. IMP/Pertukaran Protokol Hos

o. Protokol Peti Surat (Mailbox)

p. Arahan Kawalan Peruntukan Memori - CEASE, ALL, GVB, RET,RFNM

q. Strategi anjakan servis mail NCP/TCP

r. Protokol rangkaian

s. Servis nama hos ditalian

t. RCTE dari pengalaman pelaksanaan Tenex.

u. Protokol yang mampu dibaca oleh mesin

v. Pertukaran Protokol Telnet

w. Pertukaran Protokol IMP/Hos - Hos/IMP

x. Cadangan Meyer

y. Protokol Telnet terbaru dan pelaksanaannya.

z. Spesifikasi Telnet yang terbaru.

aa. Pilihan Telnet RCTE

ab. Protokol akan datang.

ac. Struktur nama soket.

ad. SQuID

ae. Protokol Rasmi

af. Talian Rangkaian.

ag. Tempoh Maklumbalas Debugging jaringan silang

ai. Bandwith jaringan antara negara

aj. Status Hos

ak. Cadangana format piawai jaringan untuk stream data grafik.

al. Status laman Illinois site

am. Protokol Laman Pengguna/Pelayan
-------------------------------
Siri Pembangunan dan Penyelidikan Kepintaran Buatan

PROTOKOL APLIKASI TANPA WAYAR
Kajian : Nik Zafri bin Abdul Majid

Hakcipta Terpelihara 2000. Sebarang penyalinan kembali harta intelek ini dalam apa juga bentuk sekalipun tanpa kebenaran adalah salah dari sisi undang-undang.


Perbincangan mengenai Protokol Aplikasi Tanpa Wayar (WAP) (selepas ini dipanggil "PATW") ini telah saya tulis untuk mengenalpasti cabaran dalam menakrifkan protokol yang menjimatkan kos dan teknologi keterangan kandungan bagi memudahkan perkhidmatan dan aplikasi data serta telefoni baru untuk jaringan tanpa wayar. Perbincangan ini diharapkan akan dapat mendekatkan kesemua organisasi dari segala aspek industri tanpa wayar untuk memastikan pembangunan dan operasi silang masng-masing. Banyak negara maju dan membangun diseluruh dunia telah pun mengadakan perbincangan seperti ini termasuk mereka yang memegang segmen 90% pasaran telefon bimbit.

PATW telah dan akan terus menjadi pemangkin kepada standard industri bagi membekalkan data kepada terminal tangan bergerak tanpa wayar.

Pada masa artikel ini ditulis, pasaran telefon bimbit sedunia sedang mengalami 'letupan' yang hebat dipasaran. Masalah ketidakcukupan memori dan kuasa untuk membekalkan data telah pun diatasi tanpa membebankan pengguna samada pos-bayar atau pra-bayar. PATW telah mempastikan mikrobroser yang seni dioptimakan untuk penggunaan terminal tangan bergerak tanpa wayar ini. Ianya juga menentukan pelayan proksi bertindak sebagai laluan pagar diantara jaringan tanpa wayar dan Internet berwayar disamping membekalkan penterjemahan protokol dan mengoptimakan pemindahan data kedalam telefon bimbit.

Dengan adanya paradigma pusat jaringan perkomputeran berasaskan model Jaringan Seluruh Dunia (WWW) dalam dunia tanpa wayar, PATW telah membantu revolusi telefon bimbit dan ini telah memudahkan lagi urusan pengguna telefon bimbit. Banyak aplikasi disediakan kepada pengguna dalam membangunkan perniagaan mereka selain daripada kemudahan memanggil dan menerima panggilan. Antaranya :-

# Mereka dapat memeriksa baki akaun tanpa perlu berurusan dengan manusia,

# menghantar dan menerima pesanan e-mail bersama-sama dengan lampirannya sekali dan mampu dipindahkan kedalam komputer peribadi untuk dicetak jika perlu.

# Memeriksa portfolio stok dan pergerakan pasaran saham termasuk menerima tip dari broker atau rakan-rakan seperniagaan,

# Mencari restoran/tempat pelancongan/hotel yang digemari dan menggunakan panggilan satu sentuhan untuk membuat tempahan

Integrasi Data dan Suara

PATW juga telah mewujudkan integrasi telefoni komputer API yang dipanggil WTAI, antara data dan suara. Ini memudahkan aplikasi dinikmati sepenuhnya oleh pengguna termasuk mendapat maklumat yang paling kemaskini.

PATW mampu diterokai oleh ramai pengeluar yang berpotensi. Ianya tidak memerlukan cip memori, CPU dan lain-lain perkakasan yang besar untuk digabungkan. PATW telah dicipta berdasarkan masalah utama pengguna telefon bimbit dari segi pemeroses, memori, hayat bateri, persembahan, kekunci dan faktor-faktor kos. Kalau dulu banyak data terpaksa disimpan dalam ROM telefon bimbit yang kadangkala memerlukan upgrading. Tetapi kini ianya disimpan dijaringan dan sentiasa dikemaskinikan menerusi pelayan.

Walaubagaimanapun rekabentuk telefon bimbit perlu dikekalkan. Dalam revolusi aplikasi jaringan pusat, kandungan dan peningkatan aktiviti pengguna juga menyebabkan peningkatan dalam terminal bergerak tanpa wayar. Contohnya, keupayaan data, grafik dan skrol menjadi lebih sempurna bagi telefon bimbit yang mempunyai skrin persembahan yang lebih besar. Tambahan pula, memori on-board boleh digunakan untuk kandungan offline, organiser, penanda buku dan kaedah input teks.

Kesimpulannya PATW dioptimakan untuk kemudahan terminal dan jaringan tanpa wayar. Namun, walaupun teknologi ini mula berkembang, beberapa kelemahan masih perlu diatasi, antara lain :

# Sambungan talian ke pembekal yang tidak menentu seperti yang berlaku keatas ISP untuk Internet Berwayar,
# Pengguna berada diluar kawasan yang tidak langsung ada liputan dan penyiaran sel,
# Keselamatan dari Penggodam untuk kedua-dua pembekal dan pengguna,
# Impak kesihatan jangka panjang,
# Jaringan tanpa wayar masih berdasarkan media pengangkutan narrowband. Walaupun ini bukan masalah sekalipun, pengendali jaringan tanpa wayar masih memerlukan penyelesaian pengangkutan yang optima supaya pelanggan dapat diberikan perkhidmatan dalam bandwidth yang sama.
-----------------------------------------
APLIKASI PROTOKOL TANPA WAYAR-WAP (BHGN II)
Kajian : Nik Zafri bin Abdul Majid

Hakcipta Terpelihara 2000. Sebarang penyalinan kembali harta intelek ini dalam apa juga bentuk sekalipun tanpa kebenaran adalah salah dari sisi undang-undang.


Kajian menunjukkan akan terdapat kira-kira lebih 500 juta pelanggan telefon bimbit pada tahun 2001. Angka ini akan mencecah billion pada tahun 2004. Perkhidmatan dan aplikasi akan berkembang seiring dengan letupan internet pada pertengahan/penghujung 90-an. Memandangkan telefon bimbit kini menjadi semakin popular, tentunya pengguna telah mendengar satu inovasi baru bergelar WAP atau Protokol Aplikasi Tanpa Wayar .

WAP merupakan protokol yang akan menukar telefon bimbit menjadi broser internet kecil. Ianya berfungsi untuk mengadakan kandungan dan perkhidmatan internet untuk klien tanpa wayar, peralatan WAP umpamanya telefon bimbit dan terminal. WAP sedang mengalami evolusi sebagaimana Web tidak lama dahulu. Buat masa ini, WAP masih terhad kepada teks (dan untuk sesetengah peralatan) dengan stail sederhana seperti Bold and Italics. Imej adalah monokrom dan bersaiz kira-kira 100 X 40 pixel. Tiada audio atau animasi canggih. Namun ini akan berubah.

Untuk mencipta maklumat yang boleh dilihat secara desktop banyak kod HTML (Hyper Text Markup Language) files yang mengandungi maklumat yang ingin dipaparkan serta rangkaian diantara helaian-helaian lain. WML merupakan HTML bagi telefon bimbit. Ianya mengandungi kod bagi broser mengetahui apa yang pengguna ingin paparkan pada skrin. Ianya hampir sama dengan maklumat WAP kecuali penggunaan WML (Wireless Markup Language) dan bukannya HTML.

Sekiranya pengguna mahukan peralatan WAP memaparkan helaian WML, pengguna perlu mencarinya pada pelayan web. Disebabkan had-had yang telah ditetapkan keatas telefon selular, PDA dan lain-lain peralatan bimbit, data gagal dipindahkan secara langsung menerusi pelayan. Helaian WML perlu dihantar terlebih dahulu ke gateway WAP. Gateway ini akan menukar permintaan kod binari ke permintaan HTTP dan akhirnya menghantarnya ke pelayan web. Pelayan ini akan menghantar helaian WML ke gateway WAP kemudiannya data dienkodkan ke WML binari dan akhirnya dihantar ke peralatan WAP ditangan pengguna.

Kod WML lebih susah dipelajari dibandingkan dengan HTML. Peraturan penformatan perlu dipatuhi, jika tidak paparan tidak dapat dikeluarkan. Tidak boleh ada sebarang kesilapan. Editor teks pun telah memadai untuk membangunkan laman WAP. Adalah dinasihatkan pengguna menggunakan kit peralatan pembangun yang boleh didapati di laman-laman tertentu pada internet. VML akan menjadi lebih mudah bagi mereka yang telah mahir menggunakan HTML.

Pengguna boleh serve dokumen WML daripada mana-mana server biasa. Ini memudahkan pengguna membangunkan Sistem Hos WAP mereka sendiri menggunakan mana-mana server/pelayan (contohnya Apache) Seperkara yang perlu dipertimbangkan ialah pengguna perlu "mengingatkan" pelayan HTTP untuk "memaklumkan" broser WML bahawa penerimaan adalah broser WML and bukannya HTML. Ini dapat dilakukan menggunakan teknik MIME seperti - dokumen HTML kosong ialah "text/html" atau "text/vnd.wap.wml"

Kebaikan perkhidmatan berasaskan WAP adalah kerana ianya global, mudah digunakan dan menawarkan keselamatan yang semakin meningkat. Disebabkan WAP dan peralatan WEB hampir sama, ianya mudah disesuaikan dengan aplikasi web sedia ada sehingga ke persekitaran telefon bimbit. Pengendali dan pembekal perkhidmatan telefon bimbit, kini telah mula menggunakan teknik pemasaran baru bagi menarik lebih ramai pengguna baru supaya mereka benar-benar dapat memanfaatkan pilihan yang luas dalam aplikasi telefon bimbit, perkhidmatan termaju (advanced) dan akses Internet. Dan pengguna WAP akan mendapat kebaikan dari perkhidmatan yang begitu senang dan akses yang selamat terhadap maklumat internet dan perkhidmatan seperti mesej unified, perbankan dan hiburan menerusi telefon bimbit masing-masing.

-------------------------------
1999-Bayangan Nik Zafri - Gelombang Masa Hadapan
(Nota yang ditujukan kepada Alvin Toffler)

Nota ini tidak teratur..idea spontan
- pengarang

W.A.P. Generasi 4 (5?) - Ramalan 2002-2005
==========================================

* Sebuah notebook atau komputer peribadi ('a bigger version of WAP' -
evolusi drpd telefon bimbit kepada 'palm pilot' dan kembali kepada
notebook atau PC)

* Pengguna boleh menggunakan kembali Model 386SX dengan RAM dan
keupayaan cakera kekal yang paling minima ke atas kerana ianya hanya
menggunakan sistem pengoprasian asas ala-DOS/X-Terminal yang diperlukan
sebagai gateway kepada ISP sahaja.

* Semua maklumat - naik/turun beban dikawal oleh 'server angkasalepas'
(satelit) - termasuk ISP/perisian/plugin - simpanan bukan berlaku pada
cakera kekal PC/Notebook tetapi di 'server angkasalepas' - ISP mungkin
berlaku secara automatik (semasa 'startup') atau 'prompt untuk logon
dan password'

* Benar-benar 'Wireless' - fungsi inframerah digunakan sepenuhnya -
tidak lagi memerlukan kabel.

* Dapat berkomunikasi secara audio-visual - ala 'Star Trek' - hanya
mendail no. telefon (spt. handset WAP kini) - mekanisma umpama e-mail

* Broser 'peer-to-peer networking' untuk mempercepatkan lagi penurunan
beban daripada komputer yang berdekatan dll.

* menikmati sepenuhnya kemudahan/infrastruktur multimedia - terdapat
'cell broadcast' yang menunjukkan dimana pengguna berada - boleh di
pasang pada kereta.

* boleh menggunakan kad pra-bayar

* harga perkhidmatan ISP (murah??) berpatutan - kerana tidak lagi
menggunakan kabel tetapi "gelombang" (spt. handset)


- dan banyak lagi....

-----------------------------------------------------------------
2005 - Kini setelah hampir 6 tahun selepas nota kecil ini ditulis,
perkembangan teknologi jalur lebar termasuk Wi-Fi, Wi-Max dan
GPRS, Bluetooth telah memungkinkan 90% daripada perkara yang di
ramalkan di atas berjaya dilaksanakan.

-------------------------------------------------------------
Masa Depan Laluan (Jalur Lebar) Broadband Wayarles
Kajian Komprehensif oleh: Nik Zafri

© 2002 – Nik Zafri Abdul Majid

Kajian ini telah diambil dari pelbagai sumber dalam dan luar negeri serta telah diolah kembali oleh Pengarang. Sebarang penyalinan harta intelek di laman Nik Zafri Online tanpa kebenaran pengarangnya adalah bersalahan dari segi undang-undang.

Bagi mereka yang telah lama melibatkan diri dalam arena laluan jalur lebar (broadband) wayarles tentunya mengetahui bahawa jaringan awam poin ke multipoin telah mengalami evolusi asalnya daripada produk enterprise (enterprising products)

Keupayaan transmisi data menerusi link udara (airlinks) telah pertama kali dirintis dalam suasana LAN wayarles enterprise. Teknik modulasi spektrum sebaran yang menjadi kunci utama jaringan kerja awam hari ini juga diasaskan menerusi LAN wayarles. Dalam masa 2-3 tahun yang lalu, semua laluan jaringan telah beroperasi menerusi spektrum ini didapati menggunakan sistem LAN wayarles. Hari ini, amalan ini telah tersebar luas dikalangan pembekal perkhidmatan Internet (ISP)

Di masa yang sama, peralatan/perkakasan melibatkan infrastruktur pembawa (carrier) dan enterprise wayarles telah mula mengalami perubahan yang mendadak. Kini, pembangunan dalam satu bentuk tidak semestinya digambarkan pula dalam satu bentuk yang lain. Teknologi LAN dan MAN (metropolitan area network) telah menjadi 2 sistem yang berasingan menyebabkan pemisahan dari satu piawai kepada dua piawai yang berbeza. Walaubagaimanapun, isu-isu pasaran yang diperkatakan keatas kedua-dua sistem agak sama umpamanya isu keselamatan, kecekapan spektral, kekuatan jaringan dan kualiti perkhidmatan

Kini vendor LAN Wayarles telah berjaya memasarkan teknologi ini setelah bertungkus-lumus selama lebih 10 tahun lamanya. Pasaran LAN wayarles telah mencapai skel ekonomi yang menjanjikan kenaikan dalam keberkesanan kos dan pulangan lumayan terhadap pelaburan.

Perlu ditekankan juga bahawa sektor wireline berasaskan gigabit Ethernet yang diasaskan dalam suasana enterprise juga menjadi satu faktor kejayaan utama. Gigabit Ethernet kini terbukti memiliki dayasaing kos dalam konteks ruang angkasa pembawa. Jadi, teknologi wayarles enterprise berpotensi diutilisasikan disebabkan penglibatan sistem ini dalam aplikasi pembekal perkhidmatan.

Sab-komponen yang dikeluarkan dalam kuantiti yang banyak juga mempercepatkan kegunaan LAN wayarles di tempat kediaman dan enterprise dalam meletakkan ia dalam produk pembawa. Fenomena ini akan mengurangkan kos serta menjadikan jalur lebar wayarles menjadi lebih kompetitif sebagai kaedah akses. Yang jelas, skop aktiviti penyelidikan LAN wayarles secara praktikalnya dapat memastikan kesinambungan pemindahan teknologi antara enterprise dan jaringan awam.

Kini, inovasi dalam LAN wayarles telah menyebabkan penggunaannya merangkumi pelbagai sektor dan industri termasuk setting tempatan (domestic setting)

Link udara belum lagi menjadi persepsi universal sebagai satu cara untuk mendapatkan data sambungan laju. Situasi ini telah menghalang aplikasi jalur lebar wayarles secara poin yang tetap. Penerimaan LAN wayarles sebagai satu penyelesaian terhadap akses awam akan hanya menjadi terkenal menerusi sebaran maklumat secara global dan bukan semata-mata ingin meletakkannya dipasaran semata-mata.

Pengukuran keberkesanan pembekalan perkhidmatan LAN wayarles perlu berdasarkan pasaran situasi terkini pasaran dan teknologi terbabit. Kedua-dua pasaran dan teknologi telah mengalami perubahan yang agak mendadak tetapi implikasinya terhadap jaringan awam masih kabur.

Kebelakangan ini, LAN Wayarles telah menjadi satu bahan komoditi terutamanya secara indoor yang menjadi penyumbang besar terhadap jualan. Sebilangan penggunaan LAN indoor adalah terdiri daripada Kad PC yang murah, kompak dan menggunakan chipset. Peralatan LAN wayarles kini dijual secara secara besar-besaran dipasaran elektronik dan pemborong komputer.

Peralatan LAN Wayarles juga telah dijual secara meluas dalam pasaran menegak dan melintang. Agihan pasaran juga banyak membayangkan kondisi kualitatif peralatan. Pasaran terbesar juga lebih cenderung kepada Ethernet enterprise, dimana link udara menjadi bahan utama/lapisan fisikal sesuatu perangkaian dan komponen wayarles serta menjadi lebih telus.

Kebanyakan Ethernet menggunakan peralatan berasaskan kelajuan piawaian 802.11b pada 11Mbps nominal menerusi jalur 2.4 GHz tanpa lesen (yang juga digunakan untuk rangkaian kawasan peribadi Bluetooth serta aplikasi gantian kepada kabel perkakasan (peripheral). Jalur 2.4 GHz tanpa lesen ini juga terkenal dikalangan generasi baru telefon cordless termasuklah peralatan (device) untuk kawalan wayarles.

Piawai 802.11b mengekalkan keaslian Ethernet dan dioptimakan untuk jarak dekat (kurang daripada 1000 ela). Piawai ini fleksibel dan menyokong transmisi dalaman dan kampus dengan menggunakan antena. Piawai 802.11b tidak mempunyai peruntukan QoS dan tidak mempunyai sokongan dalaman untuk suara dan multimedia.

Piawai 802.11b benar-benar mendapat tempat dipasaran dengan harga yang agak memuaskan menyebabkan harga benar-benar dapat diseimbangkan oleh pesaing-pesaingnya. Ianya telah disokong oleh nama-nama besar seperti Apple dimana dalam model-model terbarunya, ianya dimasukkan secara intergral dan tidak berasaskan kad semata-mata. Ianya juga mempunyai modem radio wayarles yang telah mengalami evolusi yang hebat dengan harganya yang berpatutan.

Pasaran LAN wayarles sebagai pasaran horizontal yang besar telah membangunkan ruangan residential. Saingan-saingannya seperti seperti HomePlug dan PhonePNA contohnya adalah standard jaringan lapisan fizikal berkuasa tinggi masing-masing menggunakan talian telefon yang sediada dan talian kuasa AC. Kebanyakan peralatan dan perkakasan LAN tempatan berasaskan 802.11 dan 802.11b mendapat sambutan jualan yang memberangsangkan. Tidak lama kemudian, suatu piawai telah diterbitkan khusus untuk pasaran residential dikenali sebagai HomeRF.

Piawai HomeRF telah disokong kuat oleh pengeluar-pengeluar gergasi seperti Compaq, Motorola dan Siemens. Piawai ini telah mengketengahkan QoS sepenuhnya dengan memberi laluan kepada agihan input/feed audio-video berasaskan fideliti tinggi (high fidelity) dan telefoni suara berkualiti tol (toll-quality voice telephony)

Memandangkan piawai QoS disediakan oleh IEEE — dengan pengkhususan kepada 802.11e — maka masa depan yang bakal dilalui oleh HomeRF boleh dikatakan agak kabur. Pada masa kini, HomeRF hanyalah suatu faktor dalam pasaran. Ianya mendemonstrasikan buat julung kalinya kebolehupayaannya dalam sokongan multimedia berasaskan suasana Ethernet. Untuk jaringan akses awam (public access network), sokongan ini penting bagi memperluaskan lagi skop perkhidmatan yang ditawarkan.

Piawai 802.11b telahpun diterima dalam suasana enterprise dewasa ini. Walaubagaimanapun piawaian yang diterbitkan oleh IEEE dijangka akan menggantikannya.

Piawai 802.11a mampu membekalkan penggunanya dengan kelajuan nominal 50Mbps. Standard ini mempunyai kemudahan integrasi dengan Ethernet yang pantas, dimana penggunaannya amat meluas dalam teknologi jaringan terutamanya dalam konteks enterprise.

Transmisi 802.11a berlaku diatas tiga spektrum jalur iaitu 5 GHz khususnya 5.15 GHz, 5.35 GHz, dan 5.725 GHz. Sebahagian daripada spektrum ini telah dikelaskan dibawah Prasarana Maklumat Kebangsaan Tanpa Lesen (U-NII - Unlicensed National Information Infrastructure); manakala selebihnya dikelaskan untuk kegunaan Industri, Saintifik dan Perubatan. Peralatan untuk piawai 802.11a tidak begitu memenuhi pasaran dan beroperasi pada jalur rendah yang tersebar dalam jarak yang pendek disebabkan kuasanya yang amat terhad.

Kelajuan peralatan berasaskan 802.11a yang pantas sememangnya menarik dan kurang gangguan pada jalur 5 GHz. Walaubagaimanapun, jarak keberkesanan peralatannya masih boleh ditingkatkan jika dibandingkan dengan peralatan berasaskan 802.11b. Tambahan pula, keupayaan transmisi gelombang tinggi bagi menembusi halangan tidaklah begitu kukuh.

Bagi menangani masalah ini, jaringan 802.11a memerlukan kekuatan prasarana yang lebih tinggi pada stesen pangkalannya dan pastinya ini akan melibatkan kos. Tambahan pula posisi stesen pangkalan akan menjadi lebih kritikal. Untuk tujuan ini, pemerhati industri mencari penyelesaian menerusi prospek yang diketengahkan oleh piawaian baru. Walaupun begitu, ramai juga yang meragui prospek peralatan berasaskan 802.11a dapat menggantikan 802.11b.

Piawaian IEEE 802.11 juga dikatakan tidaklah begitu lengkap. Sebagai tambahan kepada piawaian 802.11e untuk QoS; yang akan merangkumi kesemua standard sebagai set pelengkap kepada protokol; satu piawaian 802.11g berasaskan 20 Mbps sedang ditulis dengan pengkhususan kepada jalur 2.4 GHz. Piawaian ini akan dapat membantu peralatan 802.11b. Tambahan pula, 802.11g akan dapat digunakan untuk menguatkan lagi gelombang rendah terutamanya dalam menembusi halangan.

Sistem Bluetooth — dan HiperLAN2; dua sistem yang pernah mendapat sokongan Ericsson dan Nokia, 2 gergasi Scandinavia; dikatakan dapat menjadi pesaing siri-siri 802.11 kerana kedudukan masing-masing dalam jalur yang sama.

Bluetooth, yang turut menduduki jalur 2.4 GHz sebagaimana 802.11b, telah direkabentuk untuk menyokong rangkaian kawasan peribadi (PANs-personal area networks), yang terdiri daripada perkakasan (peripherals) Tidak terdapat sebarang peruntukan piawaian untuk menguruskan peralatan rangkaian ini. Namun, jarak maksima 15-meter dengan 1Mpbs yang dirangkumi oleh Bluetooth tidaklah mampu menjadi persaingan yang berkesan kepada 802.11b. Semakan piawaian untuk merangkumi jarak melebihi 100 kaki dan 10Mbps telah pun dilakukan namun usaha semakan ini telah terhenti atas sebab-sebab yang tidak dapat dikenalpasti.

Peralatan berasaskan-Bluetooth tidaklah begitu optimistik di pasaran jika dibandingkan dengan peralatan berasaskan-Irdata yang menggunakan link infra merah tanpa kabel penyambung. Walaupun demikian, sistem Bluetooth berbanding modem radio 802.11, masih mampu bertahan kerana kosnya yang berpatutan.

HiperLAN2 yang juga menjadi pesaing kepada 802.11a yang juga menduduki spektrum 5 GHz. Sistem yang mempunyai kekuatan melebihi 40Gbps ini berasaskan mod pindahan asinkronos (ATM-Asynchronous Transfer Mode) dan menyokong kesemua peruntukan QoS yang berkaitan dengan ATM.

HiperLAN2 tidak begitu mendapat sambutan kebanyakan sektor buatan US dan Jepun walaupun sebelum ini, sistem yang bergelar HiperLAN pernah diterima oleh syarikat Proxim. Prospek membina pelantar berasaskan ATM hanya dikenalpasti berkesan oleh syarikat Ericsson dan Nokia menerusi rekod pemasaran HiperLAN2 yang telah terbukti berkesan di Eropah.

Jelasnya, piawaian-piawaian yang dikeluarkan hanya menumpukan kepada penilaian pasaran LAN wayarles masakini dan tidak tertumpu kepada perkara-perkara tertentu seperti pasaran menegak dan melintang. Umpamanya contoh peralatan LAN wayarles yang melibatkan pasaran menegak adalah peralatan handheld seperti pengimbas kod bar dan modem RF berasaskan jaringan 802.11 yang dikeluarkan oleh syarikat seperti Symbol Technologies, Intermec dsb. Peralatan ini biasanya digunakan untuk operasi gudang dan kawalan inventori dan dapat menjimatkan tenaga manual manusia.

Satu lagi segmen pasaran yang semakin meningkat reputasinya adalah peralatan jejambat wayarles. Sistem ini juga tidak begitu menepati piawaian 802.11 kerana piawaian ini hanya merangkumi teknik modulasi yang tidak dioptimakan dengan jarak. Jejambat wayarles digunakan untuk menyambung kemudahan yang berada pada lokasi yang sederhana antara satu sama lain dengan menggunakan antenna berkuasa tinggi yang telah ditetapkan arahnya. Jejambat wayarles telah membina apa yang dikenali sebagai sambungan poin ke poin gelombang mikro. Ianya beroperasi dalam spektrum tanpa lesen terutamanya jalur 5.7 GHz U-NII. Peralatan ini diperbuat oleh syarikat-syarikat seperti Proxim, Alvarion, Solectek dll. untuk kegunaan jaringan awam dan setting enterprise yang besar.

Peralatan LAN wayarles samada yang diasaskan kepada piawaian ataupun tidak telah pun digunakan oleh kebanyakan pembekal perkhidmatan internet (ISP - Internet Service Provider) Disebabkan penurunan harga mendadak dalam peralatan LAN wayarles enterprise, ianya terus digunakan walaupun terminal LAN wayarles dalam suasana MAN mungkin menimbulkan pelbagai masalah umpamanya:-

Ø peralatan 802.11 yang agak terhad jarak rangkumannya – kedudukan stesen pangkalan yang tidak lebih daripada 1000 ela boleh mengakibatkan mengganggu transmisi. Tetapi bagi kawasan bandar pula, radius 1000 ela mengambilkira arkitektur mikroselular dan nanoselular. Akibatnya terdapat bebanan berlebihan terhadap stesen pangkalan yang akan membebankan pula pembekal perkhidmatan internet dengan prasarana yang mahal dan lebih ekstensif.

Ø Piawaian LAN lebih menumpukan kepada Ethernet yang hanya cenderung kepada memanfaatkan pengguna yang kecil dan bukannya jaringan awam yang lebih besar.

Ø Sistem keselamatannya yang masih dipersoalkan kerana kebanyakan LAN wayarles hanya diasaskan kepada piawaian WEP (Wireless Equivalent Privacy) yang pernah dicerobohi berkali-kali sehinggakan terdapat penyokong sistem keselamatan berpecah kepada dua kem iaitu Kerberos dan Cisco.

Ø 802.11 tidak memadai bagi menyokong sistem suara dalam suasana MAN walaupun pelbagai usaha dilakukan.

Terdapat cadangan untuk mewujudkan jaringan kerjasama (cooperative networks) terutamanya tertumpu ke kawasan kampung atau terpencil yang tidak mempunyai akses jalur lebar. Jaringan ini juga perlu merangkumi kafe siber dan restoran-restoran, lapangan terbang, perhentian lebuhraya, pasaraya lobi pejabat dan premis-premis lain seperti kilang, bilik-bilik persidangan dll. termasuk konsep ala telefon tepi jalan. Semua kawasan perlu mendapat akses supaya segenap lapisan masyarakat termasuk individu mendapat akses kepada Internet (menggunakan protokol yang betul)

Ada yang mencadangkan; bagi mencapai matlamat jaringan kerjasama; supaya 802.11 dan GPRS dapat diintegrasikan.

Peralatan LAN wayarles akan terus berkembang dengan menembusi jaringan awam kerana harganya yang berpatutan dan dengan adanya modem berasaskan 802.11 yang beroperasi dalam PDA dan laptop. Namun begitu, teknologi LAN wayarles masih belum dapat menyelesaikan masalah jaringan kawasan metropolitan (MAN) terutamanya gangguan transmisi dan keperluan pengurusan jaringan yang maju. Ianya tetap akan terpisah walaupun saling berkaitan dalam masa-masa yang terdekat ini sehinggalah masalah integrasi dapat diselesaikan.

---------------------------------
Revolusi WI-FI – Jalur Lebar/Internet Tanpa Wayar/Wayarles
Penyelidikan Oleh : Nik Zafri Abdul Majid

© 2003 – Sebarang penyalinan kembali harta intelek ini dalam apa jua bentuk sekalipun tanpa kebenaran pengarang adalah bersalahan dari sisi undang-undang.


Nota : Penyelidikan ini telah dibuat menggunakan pelbagai sumber termasuk elemen-elemen dan isi kandungan artikel-artikel penyelidikan pengarang sendiri seperti Protokol Aplikasi Tanpa Wayar, Arpanet, WAP dan Sistem Jalur Lebar – Broadband.



Kita sekarang berada pada zaman perubahan. Pelbagai evolusi teknologi komunikasi dan maklumat (ICT) telah tumbuh bagaikan cendawan setelah hujan.

Kemunculan komputer dalam bentuk mesin taip pintar dan interaktif, kerangka utama, komputer mini dan komputer peribadi disusuli dengan perisian-perisian canggih dari segi aplikasi, multimedia/animasi/persembahan, rekabentuk web bersepadu/portal/vortal/web-publisher, grafik, pangkalan data dan aplikasi industri ERP/MRP, teknikal, kejuruteraan, pelbagai sistem pengoprasian dsb.

Selain itu, dengan bantuan teknologi jaringan LAN, WAN - berwayar dan wayarles, Arpanet, Intranet dan Internet, peer-to-peer network dan lain-lain juga telah banyak meninggalkan banyak impak positif kepada dunia ICT.

Muncul pula intergrasi elemen-elemen telekomunikasi telah menyebabkan terciptanya telefon bimbit pelbagai fungsi/sistem PDA, e-mail/chat/telefon internet (dan SMS), Konsep Pejabat Pintar (SOHO), Protokol Aplikasi Tanpa Wayar (WAP) dan GPRS dan akhirnya Sistem Jalur Lebar atau lebih dikenali sebagai Broadband yang menyebabkan terbitnya pula Telefon Bersuara berasaskan IP (VOIP) dan lain-lain jenis yang terlalu banyak di pasaran.

Teknologi satelit/komunikasi juga tidak kurang memberikan lebih sumbangan bernilaitambah kepada dunia ICT sehingga mampu menggabungkan pula elemen-elemen penyiaran digital menerusi radio dan tv, Sistem Pemusatan Global (GPS), Sistem Maklumat Geografik (GIS), telefon satelit, VSAT/Gelombang ‘C’, Cell Broadcast dan lain-lain menerusi cara yang kita tidak pernah fikirkan dulu.

Dari segi komersil, industri ICT dari sektor pembuatan aksesori/perkakasan komputer sehingga penyelesaian sistem dll telah memanfaatkan e-dagang dan B2B/B2C dll secara maksima samada pada tahap teratas, tahap kedua dan tahap ketiga.

Pendekkata, dengan satu klik menggunakan tetikus dan kekunci, kita akan ‘terperosok’ ke dalam ‘dunia tanpa sempadan’, MSC, Lembah Silikon, Super Lebuhraya Maklumat dsb. Tidak ada lagi sebarang ‘dinding’ dalam dunia globalisasi masakini.

WI-FI (Akronim kepada Wireless Fidelity)

Kini bukan lagi wayar yang menjadi penentu penyaluran maklumat tetapi udara dan gelombang. Hampir 3 tahun, teknologi wayarles telah muncul dalam pelbagai bentuk untuk menukar senario teknologi dan memberikan ruang internet beroperasi secara ‘demokratik’ tanpa sebarang sekatan dan tapisan.

Kini muncullah apa yang dikenali sebagai Wi-Fi, suatu revolusi teknolgi yang canggih dengan spektrum terbuka yang akan memacu internet ke tahap selanjutnya dalam ‘penjajahan’ global.

Teknologi Jalur Lebar Wayarles - Wi-Fi adalah dijangka lebih murah, berkuasa tinggi dan mudah digunakan. Bayangkan sebuah kotak kecil yang mengagihkan internet berjalur lebar meliputi kawasan sebesar padang bolasepak. Sekeping kad kecil akan dimasukkan ke dalam slot komputer yang akan menerima jalur lebar ini dan anda boleh mula melayari internet tanpa perlu mendail sebarang talian. (lihat sahaja teknologi WAP dalam teknologi bimbit) Kemungkinan besar laptop, notebook dan PDA yang bakal anda beli nanti telah mempunyai kemudahan Wi-Fi secara built-in. Kegunaan wayar akan hanya terhad kepada aliran kuasa elektrik sahaja. Itupun jika tidak ada sebarang ciptaan baru yang melibatkan tenaga solar yang mengecas bateri serta mampu menyimpan kuasa. Tentunya wayar tidak akan digunakan lagi!

Wi-Fi menggunakan pendekatan pelbagai gelombang udara (airwave) yang mungkin akan menyebabkan satu era baru dalam dasar wayarles akan terbina. Seperti teknologi spektrum terbuka yang lain, Wi-Fi merupakan satu cara penggunaan gelombang/frekuensi tanpa sempadan. Kes ini boleh diumpamakan dengan radio CB, cuma Wi-Fi adalah sistem digital yang sungguh pintar mengelakkan kesesakan/konjesi frekuensi.

Setelah berdekad lamanya, undang-undang cuba digubal untuk cenderung kepada penguasaan frekuensi secara eksklusif atau menjadikan spektrum sebagai komoditi zaman maklumat, Wi-Fi dijangka akan menjadi pemangkin yang hebat terhadap penguasaan ini.

Wi-Fi telah menarik banyak perhatian segenap lapisan manusia di seluruh dunia di mana ianya akan menjadi penentu masa hadapan internet. Seperti juga dengan Web, Wi-Fi dijangka lebih terbuka, tanpa terikat kepada sebarang undang-undang dan tidak keterlaluan jika saya katakan ianya akan menjadi percuma tidak lama lagi.

Kita sering dikejutkan dengan bil-bil telefon bimbit yang tinggi samada pos atau pra-bayar. Ada yang mungkin mengetahui bahawa terdapat caj untuk penggunaan gelombang di kalangan syarikat telekomunikasi. Tanpa berfikir panjang, teknologi jaringan 3G telah dilancarkan secara tergesa-gesa dan akibatnya ianya telah mengalami kerugian berbilion ringgit kerana dominasi yang jelas terhadap spektrum.

Wi-Fi dikatakan akan mengancam sektor telekomunikasi kerana kesedaran pengguna bahawa ujudnya Internet wayarles yang tidak memerlukan sebarang telefon. Pakej Wi-Fi pada peringkat permulaan sahaja telah mencapai jualan melebihi 10 juta unit pada tahun 2002 di negara-negara maju dan pastinya jumlah ini akan berganda pada tahun 2003 dan selanjutnya.

Kita lihat sekarang, pengguna rumah yang canggih begitu pandai menggunakan talian broadband dengan menyambungkan poin akses ke modem kabel atau kotak DSL, memasukkan kad prabayar ke dalam laptop dan akhirnya menggunakan internet sepantas kilat di mana-mana sahaja yang mereka sukai. Melakukan streaming muzik dan video sambil menonton televisyen digital, menggunakan e-mail WAP semasa bersarapan pagi dan lain-lain lagi.l

Ini hanyalah suatu permulaan, kita akan melihat fasa Wi-Fi selanjutnya menerusi kemunculan jaringan awam. Kini, jika dilihat di kawasan Cyberjaya, KLIA dsb. sudah terdapat banyak hotspot akses terbuka, jaringan komuniti ad-hoc yang menggunakan Wi-Fi dan berkongsi talian jalur lebar. Dengan pakej harga yang menarik, Wi-Fi akan pasti digunakan di seluruh Malaysia.

Wi-Fi akan menjadi piawaian/standard universal yang akan mendominasikan dunia elektronik termasuk peralatan elektronik, konsol permainan video, pemain cakera, telefon bimbit, PDA, kamera digital dan lain-lain lagi. Mana-mana komputer peribadi yang dibeli akan terus menjadi sebahagian daripada hub jaringan wayarles sebaik sahaja ianya dipasang – seperti televisyen. Adalah diramalkan, pada tahun 2006, sebanyak 100 juta manusia akan menggunakan Wi-Fi.
Cabaran Membina Prasarana

Sebagaimana penggunaan Telefon Selular/bimbit, organisasi-organisasi yang terlibat secara langsung dalam arena Wi-Fi perlu membina prasarana komunikasi bagi menggalakkan pertumbuhan penggunaan Wi-Fi.

Organisasi juga perlu memastikan prasarana yang dibina untuk penggunaan Wi-Fi mempunyai sekurang-kurangnya ciri-ciri berikut :

a. emastikan penggunaan secara meluas –Dengan adanya telefon bimbit, pengguna memerlukan isyarat yang mana kini masih terdapat tempat-tempat tertentu yang belum dipasang dengan cell-broadcast walaupun teknologi yang kita ada begitu tinggi sekali. Mungkin juga sesetengah organisasi beranggapan bahawa pelaburan akan menjadi tinggi di kawasan-kawasan yang terpencil dan tidak memikirkan kebaikan kepada pengguna dan mereka yang dalam perjalanan menerusi zon terpencil berkenaan.

Masalah yang sama juka mungkin akan melanda Wi-Fi di mana banyak hot spot diperlukan untuk aktiviti sniffing oleh komputer. Mungkin pengguna tidak dapat log on di sesuatu zon kerana zon berkenaan adalah zon jaringan persendirian atau komersil yang memerlukan langganan.

Kawasan-kawasan seperti Hotel, restoran/outlet makanan eksklusif dan lapangan terbang perlu menitikberatkan kawasan-kawasan lobi atau lounge, pusat perniagaan, bilik-bilik persidangan/mesyuarat, bilik penginapan, dewan makan, kafeteria dll.

Sesetengah organisasi luar negara bercadang mengeluarkan key chain atau kad yang dapat mengesan isyarat Wi-Fi.

b. Kegunaan Rumah – penggunaan media digital seperti MP3 dan DVD kini semakin meluas, tetapi kebanyakan peralatan rumah masih lagi berorientasikan analog. Organisasi perlu mencari jalan untuk memecahkan permasalahan ini dan bukan sekadar memasang kabel jaringan di dalam dinding atau lantai semata-mata.

Wi-Fi dilihat mampu menyelesaikan masalah ini menerusi integrasi audio-video sehingga kepada telefon rumah secara automatik dan tanpa perlu berpenat-lelah. Pelayan/server kini dapat merekodkan siaran televisyen, menyimpan musik dan video dan memainkannya semula ke atas skrin di rumah. Bayangkan sesebuah rumah yang menjadi hub-media jaringan digital tanpa wayar, tentunya era video-internet akan lebih cepat diperkenalkan dan pastinya permintaan terhadap jalur lebar akan menjadi lebih tinggi.

c. Pemasangan Wi-Fi – jika syarikat telekomunikasi beranggapan bahawa Wi-Fi akan mengancam perniagaan mereka, cuba fikirkan pula jika hot spot Wi-Fi dipasang pada tiang-tiang telefon atau lampu. Ini pastinya akan menjadikan satu perniagaan baru kepada syarikat telekomunikasi – kerajaan atau swasta.

Wi-Fi mampu membantu mengurangkan kos yang banyak berbanding dengan cara kabel atau gentian optik.

d. Penggunaan yang seiring dengan Telefon Selular – apabila Wi-Fi berjaya digunakan secara meluas di kawasan perumahan dan kawasan awam, maka perhatian perlu diberikan pula kepada telefon selular. Kini, tidak mustahil untuk melihat pengguna wayarles dengan telefon selular di luar rumah, telefon cordless di dalam rumah dan jaringan Wi-Fi untuk data. Sesetengah peralatan ini berkongsi pada frekuensi yang sama – umpamanya kedua-dua Wi-Fi dan telefon cordless menggunakan frekuensi 2.4 – 5 GHz walaupun didasarkan kepada piawaian yang berbeza.

Bagi menjadikan penggunaan kedua-duanya secara seiring adalah suatu aktiviti yang pasti berlaku. Ini kerana Wi-Fi yang berkelajuan tinggi mampu menghantar suara sebagaimana telefon cordless. Bezanya ianya menggunakan saluran Internet dan bukannya jaringan telefon. Ini akan menjadikannya jauh lebih murah. Organisasi juga boleh menjadikan Wi-Fi sebahagian daripada fungsi telefon selular sebagaimana WAP/GPRS kerana fungsinya adalah mirip tetapi lebih meluas. Dengan adanya elemen Wi-Fi pada telefon selular, pengguna dapat membuat panggilan semasa berada di dalam zon Wi-Fi dan pada masa yang sama menggunakan cell-broadcast jika perlu.

Mungkin teknologi 3G mampu diperbaiki dan dilahirkan kembali. Banyak lagi perkara yang boleh dilakukan dalam tempoh yang terdekat ini. Di suatu masa, kemungkinan penggunaan internet berada di mana-mana tempat di dunia ini. Variasi harganya mungkin bergantung kepada zon dan prasarana yang dibina ketika itu. Penggunaan mungkin secara percuma bagi telefon cordless dan selular di kawasan perumahan, awam dan pejabat. Penggunaan juga mungkin secara percuma di kafe siber bagi menggalakkan keuntungan perniagaan. Dan mungkin juga harganya agak mahal semasa berada di lebuhraya. Ini mampu direalisasikan menerusi jaringan Wi-Fi.

Wi-Fi merupakan teknologi yang masih baru. Kemungkinan apa yang saya katakan di atas tadi nampaknya seperti tidak praktikal dan mungkin masalah-masalah lain seperti keselamatan dan gangguan tidak dititikberatkan. Namun, fikirkan sejenak bahawa semua teknologi baru yang telah diperkenalkan selama ini pun kadangkala nampak seperti begitu kompleks untuk diselesaikan pada peringkat permulaannya tetapi akhirnya penyelesaian masalah dapat dicari jua.

Begitu juga dengan Wi-Fi. Walaupun ianya dikatakan mampu menggugat industri telefon selular tetapi kita masih belum mendapat jawapan yang pasti kerana teknologi ini baru sahaja bermula…

Kabel dan gentian optik masih boleh digunakan sebagai sistem sokongan dan tidak boleh terus dibuang. Ini penting kerana hujan lebat, kilat dan elektromagnetik mampu merosakkan sistem Wi-Fi dan kita masih memerlukan pendailan dan telefon berwayar.

Piawaian yang mempengaruhi Wi-Fi

802.11b – Piawaian yang telah merintis arena jalur lebar – bagi mencari jalan menghantar data menerusi gelombang udara (tanpa lesen), para jurutera telah bekerja keras untuk mengeluarkan standard LAN Wayarles yang menggabungkan unsur-unsur data paket Ethernet, protokol routing Internet dan penggunaan spektrum secara meluas menerusi pelbagai saluran di dalam sesuatu jalur frekuensi. Hasilnya ialah maklumat yang dihantar pada kelajuan sehingga 11 Mbps dalam jalur 2.4 GHz dan pada kawasan seluas 300 kaki. Tidak lama kemudian, pada tahun 1999, LAN Wayarles telah diubah namanya kepada Wi-Fi.

802.11a – Antara tahun 1999-2000, piawaian 802.11a pula dikeluarkan. Ianya berkisarkan aktiviti jalur 5-6 GHz pada kelajuan 54 Mbps. Produk berasaskan standard ini pula telah diperkenalkan pada penghujung tahun 2001 dengan kelajuan yang tinggi dan kurang risiko gangguan frekuensi radio bebanding 802.11b dan 802.11g. Cuma kelemahannya ialah 802.11a tidak selaras dengan 802.11b dan 802.11g kerana ianya keluar daripada jalur 2.4 GHz. Akhirnya ramai pengeluar berhenti mengeluarkan produk yang berasaskan standard ini. Namun, dengan kebangkitan kembali LAN Wayarles, standard ini mungkin boleh digunakan untuk zon kependudukan tinggi termasuk institusi-institusi pengajian tinggi, universiti dan pusat-pusat perniagaan.

802.11g – piawaian ini telah 6 kali disemak dan setakat artikel ini ditulis , piawaian ini mungkin telah dikeluarkan. Piawaian ini dikatakan akan digabungkan dengan operasi 802.11b dan memiliki kadar transmisi sehingga 5 kali lebih pantas dalam jalur 2.4 GHz yang sama. Antara organisasi pengeluar produk Wi-Fi yang adalah Net Gear, Apple dan D-Link. Antara cabaran yang dihadapi ialah gangguan yang lebih tinggi dari lain-lain peralatan umpamanya telefon cordless berasaskan 2.4 GHz, terhadap frekuensi radio.
Kebebasan Pengunaan Spektrum Terbuka

Seperti yang telah dinyatakan pada awal penyelidikan ini, Wi-Fi akan menjadi satu set teknologi spektrum terbuka yang akan menjadi pemangkin kepada undang-undang penggunaan gelombang udara dan ini pastinya akan menyebabkan ledakan teknologi penggunaan perkakasan dan perkhidmatan wayarles.

Pendapat bahawa pengguna wayarles perlu dibatasi perlu merujuk kembali kepada zaman penggunaan analog seperti dalam kes isyarat radio. Ini adalah kerana gelombang elektromagnetik sentiasa berjalan dan dapat ditangkap isyaratnya secara rawak walaupun pada jalur frekuensi yang sama.

Dua jenis teknologi telah memudahkan lagi penentuan penggunaan Wi-Fi. Pertama, spektrum yang teragih secara meluas yang mewujudkan suasana transmisi pelbagai frekuensi. Walaupun terdapat gangguan, tetapi masih ada yang dapat menangkap isyaratnya dan ini menjadikan kebisingan dapat diminimakan. Seseorang penerima akan mengetahui sekuen frekuensi di mana transmisi akan diterima.

Kedua ialah radio digital, yang dapat memecahkan transmisi kepada paket ala-internet bersekali dengan identiti atau address. Radio digital hanya menumpukan perhatian kepada paket yang dikhususkan untuk mereka sahaja. Ditambah dengan pembetulan kesilapan dan kemampuan untuk menghantar kembali mesej yang hilang, pengguna dikira telah mempunyai radio yang dapat melalui kawasan yang paling bising tetapi masih mampu berkongsi ruang udara.

Jika perkara-perkara seperti ini dapat diatasi, tidak keterlaluan jika saya katakan bahawa kita mungkin dapat menggunakan peralatan internet jalur lebar dalam poket kita sebagaimana PDA.

CARA MENGGUNAKAN WI-FI

1. Anda memerlukan talian broadband

2. Anda memerlukan stesen pengkalan (base station) - Membeli peralatan dan perkakasan berasaskan 802.11g.

3. Membeli kad klien - Kad untuk laptop dan desktop ada dijual di kawasan-kawasan hotspot terutamanya di Cyberjaya. Untuk pemilik Apple, carikan kad yang berjenama Airport Extreme. Seperti yang saya nyatakan tadi, kemungkinan PC, notebook dan Apple yang bakal anda beli telah mempunyai ciri-ciri Wi-Fi secara built-in.

4. Pemasangan Jaringan – plagkan talian Internet ke stesen pengkalan dan pasangkan kad klien ke komputer/laptop. Kemudian pasangkan pengkalan dan beberapa saat kemudian anda boleh memulakan pelayaran. Sekiranya anda gagal mendapatkan Wi-Fi, kemungkinan anda telah memasukkan maklumat yang kurang tepat mengenai ISP ke dalam program setup stesen pengkalan. Semak arahan manual/buku panduan. Berikan nama yang sesuai kepada jaringan anda selain ‘default’.

5. Berada di lokasi yang sesuai – tanpa sekatan/halangan seperti dinding dan sebagainya. Jika anda menggunakan antena pada pengkalan, cuba betulkan ke arah yang sesuai. Sesetengah organisasi di US ada menjual penguat isyarat (booster). Biasanya kad Wi-Fi terdiri daripada 30-100 milliwatt.

6. Kata Laluan – anda memerlukan kata laluan kerana penggodam zaman Wi-Fi adalah lebih canggih kerana godaman kini boleh dilakukan tapa wayar. Aktiviti sniffing secara wayarles mampu mencuri maklumat mengenai kad kredit dan lain-lain.

7. Jaringan Peribadi Maya (VPN) – dengan pemasangan VPN, anda lebih selamat menggunakan Internet menerusi encrypted pipeline dari komputer menerusi stesen pangkalan ke gateway yang dikawal ketat oleh ISP atau kalau anda di pejabat, ianya ‘dijaga’ menerusi bilik pelayan/server.
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WI-FI (WIRELESS FIDELITY) DAN WIRELESS LOCAL AREA NETWORK
(KAJIAN RINGKAS OLEH NIK ZAFRI)

Kajian ini telah banyak merujuk kepada pengetahuan teknikal pengarang, kumpulan artikel pengarang mengenai Jalur Lebar, Wi-Fi, HyperLan, WAP/GPRS dan sebagainya dan ianya telah diolah kembali oleh pengarang. Walaupun banyak kajian telah dilakukan, Pengarang tidak bertanggungjawab di atas ketepatan fakta dan aplikasinya. Pembaca amat digalakkan untuk melakukan lebih banyak kajian.

© 2004 –Sebarang Penyalinan Kembali Harta Intelek di Portal Nik Zafri Online Dalam Apa Juga Bentuk Perlu Mendapatkan Kebenaran Rasmi dari Pengarangnya


Jika kita berkunjung ke Suria KLCC dan singgah di bistro-bistro makan/minum eksklusif, kita akan dapati ada beberapa pelanggan menggunakan ‘laptop’, ‘notebook’, ‘organizer’ dan lain-lain peralatan canggih ‘tanpa wayar’ atau wayarles. Jika kita meneliti perbincangan yang diperkatakan, akan kedengaranlah di telinga kita akan mendengar perkataan-perkataan teknikal seperti ‘Bluetooth’, ‘Hot Spot’, ‘Infra-Merah’, ‘Wi-Fi’ dsb.

Ternyatalah bahawa penggunaan infrastruktur/teknologi wayarles telah mula menjadi trend semasa. Di kebanyakan negara barat, Wi-Fi sudah bukan lagi satu teknologi baru. Malah bandwith juga tidak dihadkan atau dikawal! Kebanyakan pembekal internet wayarles tidak lagi terhad kepada syarikat-syarikat/firma-firma ICT yang ternama sahaja malah individu-individu/syarikat-syarikat kecil telah mula menjadi usahawan/pengusaha yang canggih dengan membekalkan perkhidmatan Wi-Fi tersendiri. Pembaca jangan terkejut, jika kebanyakan perkhidmatan ini adalah PERCUMA dengan akses tanpa had. Keuntungan pembekal-pembekal kecil ini hanyalah tertakluk kepada klien yang membuat bayaran-bayaran berkaitan perundingan, instalasi dan setup awalan serta mungkin penyelenggaraan; dan bagi yang lebih bijak; melakukan satu perkongsian pintar kepada klien kawasan yang diliputinya dan pembekal-pembekal hardware/peripherals yang terlibat.

Inilah permulaannya seseorang individu atau kumpulan kecil di sesetengah negara Barat membekalkan perkhidmatan Wi-Fi secara PERCUMA. Malah, pembekal-pembekal pintar ini meraih keuntungan yang banyak (secara ‘tidak nampak’/intangible) dengan hanya menyediakan prasarana-prasarana seperti :

1) Akaun ‘LAN’ wayarles, Modem DSL, Bandwidth, Instalasi Port/Base Station – biasanya dibekalkan oleh Pembekal Perkhidmatan Telekomunikasi – pembekal/perunding akan melakukan satu perkongsian pintar dengan pembekal-pembekal rasmi perkhidmatan telekomunikasi dengan menawarkan khidmat jaringan pemasaran/jualan klien yang besar. Selain itu, pembekal juga boleh berhubung dengan kontraktor-kontraktor bertauliah yang dilantik di kawasan masing-masing untuk sama-sama berkongsi projek ini. Bagi yang berminat untuk membuat ‘akaun’ pengguna, maka biasanya lesen akan diperlukan.

2) Kabel UTP CAT, Router Wayarles 2.4 Ghz/Infra Airwave/Antenna – yang boleh didapati di mana-mana kedai komputer/aksesori – ini juga menjadi satu perkongsian pintar yang menguntungkan antara perunding/pemasar/penjual perkhidmatan dengan pembekal-pembekal hardware dan peripherals – ini juga secara tidak langsung juga telah membuka peluang perniagaan yang besar kepada kilang-kilang pengeluar.

3) Komputer Klien samada Notebook, Laptop atau PC dengan adapter/kad wayarles – sebagaimana perkara (2)

4) Membina firewall dan menyediakan server jika perlu– Ini juga menjadi satu lagi bisnes yang besar terutamanya apabila perunding/pembekal membuka peluang kepada kontraktor-kontraktor bertauliah dan/atau pengaturcara-pengaturcara sekuriti yang banyak terdapat di negara masing-masing.

5) Mesin Pencetak yang boleh ‘online’ kepada router secara wayarles – sebagaimana perkara (2) dan ianya juga menguntungkan klien jika pengguna ingin mencetak dokumen yang diperlukan.

6) Latihan kepada klien – ini juga akan memberikan pendapatan tambahan kepada pembekal.

7) Penyelenggaraan jika perlu – sebagaimana perkara (6)

8) Pembekal/Perunding juga memberikan cadangan kepada klien mereka untuk mengenakan syarat tertentu kepada pengguna seperti ‘Pembelian Wajib RM5.00’ di samping menggunakan perkhidmatan internet wayarles secara percuma! Ini tentunya akan melipatkaligandakan keuntungan klien kerana kunjungan pengguna yang pasti bertambah. Bayangkan, pengguna tidak lagi perlu lagi ke bistro-bistro eksklusif tertentu untuk mencari logo ‘hotspot’ atau membuka akaun ‘hotspot/wi-fi’ dengan pembekal-pembekal telekomunikasi. Pengguna hanya perlu ke restoran makanan segera yang paling dekat dengan rumahnya sahaja!

Cuba bayangkan sebentar, betapa banyaknya peluang perniagaan yang boleh dilakukan oleh anda di samping mengagihkan keuntungan pula kepada pembekal-pembekal telekomunikasi rasmi, kilang-kilang, kedai-kedai komputer/aksesori, kontraktor-kontraktor bertauliah di kawasan masing-masing dsb.

LAN Wayarles bukan sahaja boleh dibangunkan dalam suasana pejabat atau institut pengajian tinggi semata-mata, tetapi juga pada tempat-tempat terbuka/semi-terbuka seperti restoran-restoran terutamanya restoran-restoran makanan segera, restoran-restoran Thai/Mamak/Melayu, stesen/kios minyak yang begitu banyak di seluruh negara, hotel/motel/chalet malah taman-taman perumahan dan lain-lain. Pengguna hanya perlu mempunyai komputer/laptop yang mempunyai prasarana wayarles secara ‘built-in’ atau dengan membeli adapter/kad/sniffer dsb. Anda juga boleh memindahkan gambar/foto atau dokumen dengan rakan anda/peer-to-peer secara ‘infra-merah’ dengan mudah.

Semua perkara ada kelemahannya walaupun teknologi itu canggih mana sekalipun. Antara kelemahan-kelemahan yang dapat saya kenalpasti ialah :

a. Jika klien menggunakan firewall bagi mengawal pencerobohan (biasanya menerusi router dan server), ianya mungkin akan meninggalkan kesan kepada transmisi ‘paket-paket’ yang mungkin melemahkan pula capaian. Namun, firewall tetap diperlukan dan selalunya ada pro dan ada kontra. Malah aktiviti ‘pinging’ juga seperti tidak ada guna dan kesan apa-apa.

b. Isu Bandwidth merupakan isu yang amat sensitif kerana terlalu ramai pembekal perkhidmatan telekomunikasi dan pengusaha-pengusaha tertentu ingin ‘mengawal’ dan ‘mengenakan caj’ ke atas bandwidth. Sehingga kini, saya mengikuti perdebatan/perkembangan mengenai perkara ini yang tidak pernah tamat dan kita pengguna biasanya menjadi mangsa. Saya telah banyak menyentuh perkara ini dalam kumpulan artikel saya mengenai standard 802.11, IEEE, WAP/GPRS, Bluetooth, HyperLAN dan jalur lebar dalam mini portal ini dan pembaca dipersilakan untuk melayarinya.

c. Isu kawalan oleh pengguna – berapa ramaikah pengguna yang faham akan isu pencerobohan/penggodaman ke atas laptop, PC mereka tanpa disedari oleh orang-orang yang tahu menggunakan teknologi wayarles berasaskan peer-to-peer dan infra-merah?

d. Isu penggunaan ‘dalam radius siaran 100 meter’ (dengan router 2.4 Ghz) tanpa memasuki premis pembekal/klien? - ini juga sukar dikawal kerana jika kita tidak mempunyai pengetahuan mengenai firewall/inhibitor/perlindungan, maka sesiapapun boleh mengakses internet wayarles secara percuma dengan hanya berada dalam kereta atau duduk pada bangku di luar daripada premis yang mempunyai prasarana LAN Wayarles.

e. Lebih teruk lagi, penggodam-penggodam boleh menghantar virus atau melihat apa sahaja maklumat dalam cakera kekal anda! Telah terdapat laporan-laporan perisikan luar negara mengenai perkara ini dan banyak juga individu yang telah diancam/diperasugut dengan maklumat-maklumat yang dicuri menerusi teknologi wayarles (malah yang lebih canggih menggunakan gelombang satelit tanpa dikesan). Ada yang ‘lebih nakal’ meletakkan ‘spyware’ tanpa boleh dikesan oleh mangsa di mana spyware ini mampu membuat screenshot setiap 1 minit ke atas kerja-kerja yang dilakukan oleh mangsa dan data ini dihantar terus kepada komputer si penggodam dalam bentuk grafik jpeg/gif dsb. secara real-time
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X-Max? Evolusi Jalur Lebar dan Teknologi Selular Masa Hadapan?
Kajian oleh : Nik Zafri Abdul Majid, Ogos 2006.

Kajian ringkas ini telah diambil dari pelbagai sumber. Secara prinsipnya, XMax merupakan hakcipta terpelihara XG Technology LLC dari segi perkataan dan teknologinya.

Kita mungkin telah mendengar terma-terma yang berkaitan dengan jalur lebar, umpamanya wi-fi, wi-max, hotspot, WLAN dsb. selain yang berkaitan dengan teknologi selular iaitu 3G dan GPRS. Tetapi dalam negara kita sedang dalam usaha untuk melaksanakan kedua-dua teknologi wi-fi dan wi-max, kini telah muncul satu lagi evolusi kepada teknologi jalur lebar.

Ianya dipanggil XMax. XMax yang dicipta oleh XG Technology LLC merupakan satu modulasi dan enkod frekuensi radio (RF) yang menggunakan gelombang integer sinusoidal/individu untuk menghantar maklumat. Secara mudah XMax ialah satu anjakan paradigma dalam cara isyarat radio bermodulasi (samada modulated atau demodulated) dan penghantaran frekuensi radio dalam satu kitaran sahaja.

Pencipta XMax mendakwa bahawa teknologi ini mampu memberikan saingan yang hebat kepada Wi-Max dan 3G dari segi kos dan aspek teknikalnya.Tenaga juga akan dapat dijimatkan semasa transmisi, kerana penerima (receiver) akan hanya mengenali gelombang satu kitaran sahaja.

Dikatakan teknologi telefon selular juga akan menambah elemen XMax (termasuk unsur-unsur VoIP) sebagai alternatif kepada 3G/GPRS/Bluetooth/WAP. Antara spesifikasi yang berkaitan dengan XMax ialah :
a. Antena - transmiter omnidirectional boleh diletakkan pada menara penyiaran TV pada ketinggian lebih kurang 260 meter,
b. Gangguan - Tiada walaupun dipasang pada menara penyiaran TV,
c. Kuasa - Maksimum 50 W untuk carrier dan < 0.15 W untuk siaran bermaklumat,
d. Keluasan - lebih kurang 33km,
e. Spektrum - satu carrier 6kHz pada spektrum tetap dan 10 MHz spektrum tersebar bermaklumat pada gelombang (tanpa lesen) 900 MHz, dan
f. Kadar Data - sekurang-kurangnya 10 MB/saat pada kawasan liputan.