INVESTMENT IN TURBULENT TIMES
(SJ Securities and European Credit Investment Bank Limited)
Bilik Kinabalu - Menara Hap Seng, Jalan P. Ramlee, Kuala Lumpur

- Quickie from Nik Zafri. Please sign up/'like' the 'Knowledge Management (FB) for more information.

Mr. Darren Tan, International Consultant on Precious Metal, Founder iBiz, 2010 recipient of Successful Entrepreneur (Platinum Catgory) & 2011 SME1 Asia Award (Emerging Award) representing European Credit Investment Bank Ltd.

Topic : Investing in Gold and Silver - also touching on investing opportunities - FOREX, Derivatives, Bonds, Futures etc. besides than latest outlook on Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis and Eurozone Crisis

This workshop is part of the Security Commission program to educate the public especially investors

Mr. Peter Lim, Dep. MD of SJ Securities - a very experienced and qualified investment guru
Topic : Investment in the Stock Market also touching on opportunities, capital and economics

My questions to the speakers are :

a) If the influx of foreign currency is too much to any country, is it good to consider pegging - as the pegged regime did provide a strong foundation for accumulating and improving the level of international reserve and balance of trade.

Mr. Peter Lim commented that it is possible to have some form of capital control measures if there is proof of too much influx.

My next question :

b) Why do world stock markets react and behave eratically towards Federal Reserve news, policy even rumours to hike interest rates?

Mr. Peter Lim (assisted by Darren Tan later) said that stock prices and even equity prices respond as they do to monetary policy or interest rates hike are really intriguing. Sometimes monetary policy affects stock values through its effects on real interest rates, expected future dividends, or expected future stock returns. It has something to do with relatively transitory movements in real interest rates induced by surprise policy actions. Mr. Peter Lim also said the scenario is related to inverse 'effects' usually providing the opposite performance to their benchmark.

(But he also stressed that I shouldn't be listening rumours too much)

c) The rest are questions during 'breaks' briefly about FOREX and painting 'rosy pictures' in the company stocks including opportunities of emerging markets. I really like the way Mr. Darren Tan said about how we do not want to loose and only targetting profit. I later told one of the investors that there is no business or accounting without Profit & Loss. There is no such thing as we give assurance to people that we're going to make lots and lots of profit with a warranty of no loss. The same goes to property/REIT, Forex, Stock Market, Gold, Silver etc. It's the balance between up-to-date information (the right source), right timing and the right stocks.

The best part is the conclusion - both Mr. Peter Lim and Darren splendidly prove one important point - you can still make money during 'ups' and 'downs' if you know how to.

NIK ZAFRI'S (HUMBLE) ASIA/SEA ECONOMICAL FORECAST 2009

Many have forecasted that SEA will be the first to rebound from the current economic crisis by September, 2009.

On the other hand, what saddens me most is that some even forecasted that Asian economy will fall badly in 2009 - such a pathetic statement meant to discourage us.
In the past, we have been known for the reputation of outperforming the US and Europe due to the right planning and eventually become very immune to any credit crunch from the West.

Some countries are not even depending on IMF or World Bank in 1997-1998-remember? Even China has been too much underestimated (not that I disagree but too much 'smart' speculations..come on) by these 'so-called' economic forecasters.

I have always been known as a 'reverse psychological' person. I don't believe in 'too obvious bad news' being reported meant to lure the small investors away but giving great monetary advantages to speculators.

Based on these 'unfounded fears', I feel strongly that the Asian will be one of the key players in the world economy commencing from 2009.

But of course, I have a different theory (especially for Malaysia) - I think it's earlier than that...say April, 2009?

But, I share the agreement that it is likely going to be Singapore then probably followed by Malaysia. There have been a trend of banking and financial institutions in these two neighbouring countries offering new packages to GLCs and MNCs. These efforts would probably contribute to economy recovery in 2009. There has also been a higher demand for exports from Malaysia and Singapore based on the increased spending in the Euro and US.

The banking sectors in Japan are planning to buy securities, stocks and bonds (corporate) etc - and if these plan works, it will help stabilise their financial market. The Government has announce Japan's biggest ever annual budget Y12,000bn.

China however would still have to be put under alert - to grow or not to grow. Since China are trading with other SEA countries, their ability to export surplus stocks financed on credit should be monitored. New policies to boost consumption need to be drawn up to counter this possibility. I do know that China works very-very hard lately not to be bound to 'intelligent economic comments' e.g. decoupling - and I have every confident that they will succeed.

In Indonesia, the President announce the budget of USD200 billion ++ and a 6.2% growth is expected. However, they are not too sure about the outcome of issuance of Government bonds and probably there will be a budget deficit of nearly 2% GDP. Mainly taxes will play a role for the main revenue followed by non-tax sectors. There will also be about 102 trillion rupiah for fuel subsidy.

The only biggest dillema in Indonesia is corruption - if this is not being minimized, I do not think that they can reach the target that they are hoping for. While for the good part that Indonesia has done right is their achievement of regaining self-sufficiency in rice where the production has surpassed the country's rice consumption. This has made them better in terms of food situation and probably would take them out of the current global food crisis.

For Korea, they are not too ambitious; which I find a good thing to do - be cautious. While everyone is hoping and praying for a 2009 turnaround, Korea predicted a 3% growth and the focus is mainly creating new job opportunity. They have also cut taxes here and there.

Korean consumer price is estimated to stabilize to less than 4% and there may also be decreasing service deficitit and rising goods surplus - thus making 2009 account surplus to exceed USD10 billion. I personally think that Korea should now put an effort to minimize their dependency on IMF as what they have done before in 1997.

I will keep you all updated.

As you all have already known that the financial experts (or so called) have commenced their efforts to charter the implications of this year's credit crisis (esp. in the US) as a result of financial market turbulence. Not too long ago, everyone is aiming at the renaissance of China but with the current condition they are facing, it may potentially be a little while before their internal problems can be stabilized if not solved fully.

So, what can our world governments do? I humbly think that the financial market should be slowly integrated to become a global network or hub. Except for US, I've seen efforts via conferences and seminars towards implementing such plans. I'm also shocked to know the rate of countries retreating from Euro these days.

US on the other hand; if not properly controlled; may affect even to the security matters - just wait if New York started to feel the pinch and everything will start to lead to one problem to another. (esp. security matters) I do not know if US need to cut down on foreign assistance at the moment - but if this is the case, then the fiscal pinch may affect the amount of such aid. If I may say, I hope that New York can start efforts of working together with other financial hubs to become a network of global capitals. The only setback is the global political stability as whenever there are plans of more effective and beneficial integration, the political element has to be part and parcel of financial market. Of course, I don't need to tell how much US can save by less interfering in other countries internal affairs as what have been done in Africa, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. US Bush Administration has tried their best to save their economy but it is too sluggish - I hope they can crush their ego and restrategize - try to create a better relationships with other countries - they have tried too many models and these models just don't work...

We can no longer depend on IMF, World Bank (now almost irrelevant) and even the UN (they themselves are now in hot soup despite funded the US) but we have to do something NOW to create a healthier market - e.g. making more rooms for reserves. We know that UN's stand on Darfur, Georgia & Pakistan - total silence for unknown reason.

When I talk about integration or interdepence, I'm not really pointing towards globalization as it is still a concept of uncertainty that may become a friend or a foe. That is too much for a small guy like me to anticipate. Just referring to the good ol' concept working together as a team. This 'teamwork' may lead to good global financial governance will create better monetary policies, securities regulations and even signifcant changes can be made to auditing and accounting standards.

Where would be the ideal starting point? The answer is the first tier - Banking and Financial Institutions. I would like to open this suggestion to Asia (or SEA) as Asia is a very unique continent that has always found a way towards survival. (perhaps some democratization of financial policies should be in place) Most important is TRUST and coordinated efforts one another - as every bankers and financiers have all the knowledge. (Don't wait for someone else to start first) There should be no more too much dependency on certain elite groups or industries that are 'controlling the financial world' and we have seen the impact when these 'big mega industries' started to fall. (NASTY!)

Again, my 2 sens worth!