CONGRATULATIONS AND WELCOME TO THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF TIMOR-LESTE TO THE ASEAN FAMILY

 

Warmest congratulations to the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste, its President, H.E. José Ramos-Horta, Prime Minister, H.E. Xanana Gusmão, and the resilient people of Timor-Leste on this momentous occasion marking a new chapter in the nation’s proud journey.

Timor-Leste stands as a testament to courage, perseverance, and unity, a nation that has emerged through adversity with an unwavering commitment to democracy, peace, and human dignity. Its cultural richness, deep-rooted traditions, and collective national spirit continue to inspire the global community.

As Timor-Leste progresses toward greater social, economic, and regional integration, it is well positioned to become a key contributor to ASEAN and the wider Indo-Pacific region. Its strategic maritime location, youthful and dynamic population, and steadfast pursuit of sustainable development reflect a nation ready to take on an influential role in shaping regional stability and prosperity.

The world continues to admire Timor-Leste’s resilience and vision for a peaceful and equitable future. May the continued leadership of H.E. José Ramos-Horta and H.E. Xanana Gusmão bring lasting unity, growth, and success to the nation and its people.

Congratulations once again to the Government and the people of Timor-Leste.

(humbly and on behalf of the Malaysian people - Nik Zafri)

#TimurLeste #ASEAN 

The ASEAN Equation: Unity in Uncertainty - Overview by Nik Zafri

Please also read the previous article 

Given the attendance of major powers such as President Donald Trump - United States, reps from China and Russia, the key topics agenda would likely be :

1. Trade, Economics and Supply Chain resilience

The U.S. and China are in trade talks on the sidelines. The U.S., under Trump, is threatening big tariff hikes on Chinese exports and seeking concessions; the China leadership sees ASEAN as a priority partner.

The ASEAN region is concerned about how U.S. tariffs and shifting global trade flows affect its export-and-manufacturing base. 

China is pitching its upgraded “Free Trade Area 3.0” with ASEAN, emphasising digital economy, green economy, and production/supply-chain integration. 

ASEAN is also seeking to expand partnerships beyond the traditional powers (e.g., Latin America, Africa) as host Malaysia emphasises “inclusivity and sustainability.”

2. Regional Security, Maritime Disputes and Neutrality

The summit will discuss the broadening power competition in the region: the narrowing of ASEAN’s “space for neutrality” as big-power rivalry deepens (trade, tech, security) was explicitly flagged by Malaysia’s foreign minister. 

Maritime issues especially in the South China Sea and unresolved border or access disputes will be on the table. 

Internal ASEAN conflict management remains a key focus particularly the recent border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia. Malaysia has played a pivotal role in facilitating the ceasefire, a contribution publicly acknowledged and appreciated by President Trump. The summit is expected to witness the formal signing or endorsement of the ceasefire agreement or a broader peace framework.

3. ASEAN’s Internal Cohesion and External Partnerships

The 10 current ASEAN members plus the accession of Timor‑Leste as the 11th member will be formalised at this summit. 

ASEAN is going to meet with “dialogue partners” (China, U.S., Russia, Japan etc) in separate sessions.  It is not known if BRICS is going to be discussed.

The bloc is under pressure from multiple directions (economic, strategic) and must manage its collective identity and voice especially with members having differing alignments. 

4. Big Power Diplomacy and the U.S. - China – Russia Axis

With Trump attending, the U.S. may signal a renewed high-level engagement in Southeast Asia and trying to shore up trade and security ties. 

China will engage ASEAN pushing its economic agenda as well as its strategic footprint in the region. 

Russia and some countries will have representation (though the head of state may not attend) and is part of the conversation, especially via its linkages to China and in broader regional security issues. 

5. Other Cross-Cutting issues

Myanmar’s ongoing crisis remains a thorn in ASEAN’s unity and credibility; how the bloc deals with it will come up. 

Technology, cyber security and supply-chain issues: China has urged the U.S. to stop cyber-attacks; ASEAN will be mindful of technological dependencies and the “new economy” challenges. 

Environmental, “green economy” and “sustainability” framing (the theme of the summit is “Inclusivity and Sustainability”) though less emphasised in media, it provides an entry for ASEAN to project a positive agenda. 

6. WHAT TO WATCH

• Trade deal/announcements: Will the U.S. (with Trump) clinch new trade arrangements with ASEAN-members or announce tariff/market-access concessions? Media say yes.

• China-ASEAN FTA 3.0 implementation: Will there be formal commitment, timeline or institutional mechanism announced around the upgraded China-ASEAN free trade area? 

• Cease-fire or peace deal: Particularly the Thailand-Cambodia frontier conflict is expected to be addressed or formalised at the summit in presence of Trump via signing of Peace Deal. 

• Gaza - although President Trump has mentioned the ceasefire, it remains uncertain how extensively the issue will be discussed during the summit, as Palestine continues to face attacks despite the declared truce.

• Language on big-power rivalry: Expect statements around strategic autonomy, neutrality or how ASEAN will engage U.S., China, Russia without being drawn fully into one camp. The “space for neutrality” comment is telling.

• Commitments on supply-chain/green economy: Possibly new mechanisms or commitments to diversify supply chains, strengthen green/digital economy cooperation across ASEAN + China partners.

• Membership expansion and institutional developments: Timor-Leste’s entry, perhaps proposals about expanding ASEAN’s partnership footprint, may get spotlight.

7. Implications for Malaysia and ASEAN

For Malaysia (host): It means being centre-stage in regional diplomacy, enhancing its role as mediator and regional convenor.

For ASEAN's credibility: It’s a test of how the bloc navigates big-power competition while keeping its centrality intact.

For business/investment: Outcomes in trade and supply-chains could open new opportunities (or risks) for Malaysian and regional companies.

For security and geopolitics: How ASEAN positions itself vis-a-vis strategic competition (U.S.–China–Russia) will influence regional alignments for years.

8. Conclusion

The 2025 ASEAN Summit stands as a pivotal moment for Southeast Asia a region navigating the complex intersection of global power rivalries, economic realignments, and enduring humanitarian crises. 

With the presence of the United States under President Trump, alongside China and Russia, ASEAN faces the challenge of asserting its centrality while maintaining neutrality amid competing global interests. 

Yet, within this delicate balance lies opportunity: to strengthen internal cohesion, champion sustainable and inclusive growth, and reaffirm ASEAN’s role as a stabilizing force in an uncertain world. Whether through renewed trade cooperation, conflict resolution, or humanitarian advocacy, the summit’s true test will be how effectively ASEAN transforms dialogue into decisive, collective action for the peace, prosperity, and resilience of the region and beyond.

At the same time, I sincerely hope that the peaceful protests surrounding President Trump’s visit to Malaysia will not be met with penalties or suppression. In a true democracy, the right to express dissent is fundamental provided it remains orderly and non-violent. Many Malaysians, including the opposition and silent citizens alike, deserve the space to voice their concerns. Such demonstrations should not be seen as acts of hostility, but rather as a necessary form of check and balance one that reflects the maturity, integrity, and strength of Malaysia’s democratic spirit.

ASEAN SUMMIT - WHAT TO EXPECT – Overview by Nik Zafri

PHOTO SOURCE : MALAYMAIL

Disclaimer: The following reflects my personal opinion and interpretation, based on open sources available both internationally and domestically. The information presented here is considered to be in the public domain. However, readers are encouraged to refer to the original sources for accuracy and context. The author bears no responsibility for any inaccuracies, misinterpretations, or consequences arising from the use of this content.

RETAIL AND E-COMMERCE SECTORS IN MALAYSIA FROM 2023-2025 AND HOW AI IS BECOMING THE GAME CHANGER – OVERVIEW BY NIK ZAFRI

Between 2023 and 2025, Malaysia's retail and e-commerce sectors have experienced significant growth, driven by technological advancements, evolving consumer behaviors, and supportive government initiatives. 

1.0  Growth Trajectory

1.1 Market Expansion

In 2023 alone, Malaysia's e-commerce market reached approximately $10.2 billion, marking a 12.2% increase from the previous year.

Projections indicate that by 2028, the market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5%, reaching $15.7 billion.

2.0 Mobile Commerce Surge

The rise in smartphone usage has propelled mobile commerce, with mobile transactions accounting for over 50% of all online transactions. This trend is expected to continue, emphasizing the importance of mobile-optimized platforms for retailers.

3.0 Key Developments

3.1 Government Initiatives

The National eCommerce Strategic Roadmap (NESR) has been pivotal in promoting e-commerce adoption among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Between 2016 and 2023, approximately 1.51 million SMEs embraced e-commerce, enhancing their market reach and operational efficiency.

3.2 Alternative Payment Methods

In 2023, alternative payment solutions, including digital wallets and bank transfers, accounted for 35.7% of e-commerce transactions. This shift reflects consumers' preference for convenient and secure payment options.

4.0 Impact on the ASEAN Region

Malaysia's e-commerce growth significantly influences the broader ASEAN market. Among them :

4.1 Regional Trade Enhancement

The expansion of Malaysia's e-commerce facilitates increased cross-border trade within ASEAN, promoting regional economic integration and providing consumers with a wider array of products.

4.2 SME Empowerment

E-commerce serves as a crucial export enabler for ASEAN-6 micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Notably, 90% of these MSMEs reported that they would not be able to export without e-commerce platforms, underscoring the sector's role in regional economic development.

Conclusion

From 2023 to 2025, Malaysia's retail and e-commerce sectors have undergone substantial growth, driven by technological adoption, supportive policies, and changing consumer preferences. This progression not only bolsters Malaysia's economy but also contributes to the economic dynamism of the ASEAN region.

HOW ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE BECOMES A GAME CHANGER IN RESHAPING MALAYSIA’S RETAIL AND E-COMMERCE SECTORS

1.0 AI and Digital Transformation in Malaysia's Retail and E-Commerce

1.1 Enhanced Customer Experience 

Malaysian e-commerce platforms are leveraging AI to personalize shopping experiences. For instance, Lazada utilizes AI combined with Augmented Reality (AR) to offer personalized skincare solutions, allowing users to analyse their skin and receive tailored product recommendations.

1.2 Operational Efficiency

AI-driven tools are streamlining operations. Shopee's AI chatbot, Sophie, managed 18 million chats in 2023, resolving 80% of cases without human intervention, thereby enhancing customer satisfaction and reducing operational costs.

1.3 Fraud Detection

Payment platforms like iPay88 employ AI to monitor transaction patterns, enabling real-time fraud detection and ensuring secure online transactions.

2.0 Government Initiatives

The Malaysian government is actively fostering AI development. In December 2024, it established the National Artificial Intelligence Office to spearhead AI policy and regulation, aiming to position Malaysia as a regional AI hub.

3.0 Impact on the ASEAN Region

3.1 Economic Growth

AI is projected to boost Southeast Asia's GDP by 10% to 18% by 2030, translating to nearly $1 trillion.

3.2 Digital Integration

ASEAN countries are increasingly adopting digital technologies, enhancing regional connectivity and economic integration. Initiatives like the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement aim to standardize electronic processes, facilitating seamless digital trade across member states.

Conclusion

In summary, AI and digital transformation are pivotal in advancing Malaysia's retail and e-commerce sectors, contributing to economic growth and fostering deeper integration within the ASEAN region.

THE ASEAN FINANCIAL INNOVATION SUMMIT 2024

Day 1 and 2 of the ASEAN Financial Innovation Summit organized by CT Asia took place at the M Star Hotel and Resorts. The event provided valuable insights as I listened to esteemed financial, technical, and governance experts, both local and international, discussing topics ranging from the future of Accounting, Banking, ESG, ERP, International Trade, to the evolving role of Artificial Intelligence.

I extend my gratitude to the Women in Governance and Technology Association of Malaysia (WIGTA) one of the VIP delegates, support partners, and exhibitors for the invitation to this remarkable gathering.

Throughout the summit, I had the opportunity to connect with knowledgeable delegates and speakers from around the world, fostering potential future business opportunities.

Additionally, participation in the event will yield certification and Continuing Professional Education (CPE) points.

ROHINGYAS JUST NEED PROPER SETTLEMENT - NIK ZAFRI

MALAYSIAN ECONOMIC MONITOR - WORLD BANK

BOOSTING TRADE COMPETITIVENESS

Following the review of near-term developments and outlook, the thematic chapter of this Economic Monitor analyzes structural trends in trade competitiveness.

Trade competitiveness is measured as Malaysia’s ability to grow its exports and the domestic value-added embodied within them, leveraging foreign demand and knowledge to support its transformation to a high income nation.

Nearly 60 percent of value-added produced in Malaysia was ultimately consumed by foreigners in 2009 – one of the highest shares in the world.

The share of Malaysia’s GDP consumed in foreign markets includes the value-added of exporting firms and also of suppliers to export-oriented industries. Thus the actual significance of external demand to the Malaysian economy is higher than it appears from net exports (22 percent of GDP) or the output from externally-oriented industries (38 percent of GDP).

The export engine appears to have been faltering since before the Global Financial Crisis.

The share of exports of goods and services in Malaysia’s GDP declined by nearly 30 percentage points between 2005 and 2013. Unlike Thailand, Vietnam and Korea, which saw market shares expand, Malaysia’s share shrunk from 1.35 to 1.22 percent in that period. However, Malaysian exports have included a higher portion of domestic value-added, mitigating the impact of the decline in gross shares.

The decline in exports has been concentrated in Malaysia’s core export product segment – E&E products.

E&E exports as a share of GDP declined from about 38 percent between 2002 and 2004 to 18 percent in 2013, and Malaysia’s market share in the period declined from 5.25 percent to 3.74 percent of global E&E exports. Meanwhile, exports of commodities, and commodity-related manufactures such as petrochemicals expanded, but not enough to compensate the decline in E&E exports.

The domestic value-added of Malaysian E&E exports is relatively low due to limited domestic linkages.

Malaysia remains an integral part of the E&E global value chain, but at 44 percent the share of valueadded  in exports is relatively low. This is partly due to limited domestic linkages. Compared to other countries, the contribution from domestic intermediaries to the value-added of exports is only 7 percent in Malaysia compared to 31 percent in Korea. This finding is supported by analysis of enterprise survey data, which finds that multinationals in Malaysia source less than 40 percent of their inputs from domestic firms compared to 46 percent in Vietnam and 82 percent in China.

Exports of services have also lagged and remain an area of significant potential.

Malaysia has few services-exporting firms and at 12 percent of GDP services exports are below what would  be expected for a country at its level of income.

‘Behind the borders’ restrictions hinders export growth and limits linkages between domestic providers and export-oriented industries.

Although the Government has recently embarked on a liberalization of services  sectors, many are still relatively restrictive as measured by the World Bank’s Services Trade. Restrictiveness index and assessment of the burden of non-tariff measures. Professional and transport services are more restrictive on average than most countries in East Asia for example. A restrictive domestic environment reduces incentives for exporting, and for exporting firms to buy more domestic value-added. Barriers are not limited to ownership restrictions, but extend to licensing and regulations that limit domestic competition.

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