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NIK ZAFRI BIN ABDUL MAJID, CONSULTANT/TRAINER
Email: nikzafri@yahoo.com, nikzafri@gmail.com
http://www.nikzafri.blogspot.my

Kelantanese, Alumni of Sultan Ismail College Kelantan (SICA), Diploma (Management), IT Competency Cert, Certified Written English Professional US. Has participated in many seminars/conferences (local/ international) in the capacity of trainer/lecturer and participant.

Affiliations :- Council Member of Gerson Lehrman Group NY, Institute of Quality Malaysia, Malaysian Institute of Management, Malaysian Occupational Safety and Health Professionals Association, Auditor ISO 9000 IRCAUK, Auditor OHSAS 18000 (SIRIM and STS) /EMS ISO 14000:2004 and Construction Quality Assessment System (CONQUAS, CIDB (Now BCA) Singapore),

* Possesses 26 years of experience/hands-on in the multi-modern management & technical disciplines (systems & methodologies) such as Knowledge Management (Hi-Impact Management/ICT Solutions), Quality (TQM/ISO), Safety Health Environment, Civil & Building (Construction), Manufacturing, Motivation & Team Building, HR, Marketing/Branding, Business Process Reengineering, Economy/Stock Market, Contracts/Project Management, Finance & Banking, etc. He was employed to international bluechips involving in national/international megaprojects such as Balfour Beatty Construction/Knight Piesold & Partners UK, MMI Insurance Group Australia, Hazama Corporation (Hazamagumi) Japan (with Mitsubishi Corporation, JA Jones US, MMCE and Ho-Hup) and Sunway Construction Berhad (The Sunway Group of Companies). Among major projects undertaken : Pergau Hydro Electric Project, KLCC Petronas Twin Towers, LRT Tunnelling, KLIA, Petronas Refineries Melaka, Putrajaya Government Complex, Sistem Lingkaran Lebuhraya Kajang (SILK), Mex Highway, KLIA1, KLIA2 etc. Once serviced SMPD Management Consultants as Associate Consultant cum Lecturer for Diploma in Management, Institute of Supervisory Management UK/SMPD JV. Currently – Associate/Visiting Consultants/Facilitators, Advisors for leading consulting firms (local and international) including project management. To name a few – Noma SWO Consult, Amiosh Resources, Timur West Consultant Sdn. Bhd., TIJ Consultants Group (Malaysia and Singapore) and many others.

* Ex-Resident Weekly Columnist of Utusan Malaysia (1995-1998) and have produced more than 100 articles related to ISO-9000– Management System and Documentation Models, TQM Strategic Management, Occupational Safety and Health (now OHSAS 18000) and Environmental Management Systems ISO 14000. His write-ups/experience has assisted many students/researchers alike in module developments based on competency or academics and completion of many theses. Once commended by the then Chief Secretary to the Government of Malaysia for his diligence in promoting and training the civil services (government sector) based on “Total Quality Management and Quality Management System ISO-9000 in Malaysian Civil Service – Paradigm Shift Scalar for Assessment System”

Among Nik Zafri’s clients : Adabi Consumer Industries Sdn. Bhd, (MRP II, Accounts/Credit Control) The HQ of Royal Customs and Excise Malaysia (ISO 9000), Veterinary Services Dept. Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), The Institution of Engineers Malaysia (Aspects of Project Management – KLCC construction), Corporate HQ of RHB (Peter Drucker's MBO/KRA), NEC Semiconductor - Klang Selangor (Productivity Management), Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia (ISO 9000), State Secretarial Office Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), Hidrological Department KL (ISO 9000), Asahi Kluang Johor(System Audit, Management/Supervisory Development), Tunku Mahmood (2) Primary School Kluang Johor (ISO 9000), Consortium PANZANA (HSSE 3rd Party Audit), Lecturer for Information Technology Training Centre (ITTC) – Authorised Training Center (ATC) – University of Technology Malaysia (UTM) Kluang Branch Johor, Kluang General Hospital Johor (Management/Supervision Development, Office Technology/Administration, ISO 9000 & Construction Management), Kahang Timur Secondary School Johor (ISO 9000), Sultan Abdul Jalil Secondary School Kluang Johor (Islamic Motivation and Team Building), Guocera Tiles Industries Kluang Johor (EMS ISO 14000), MNE Construction (M) Sdn. Bhd. Kota Tinggi Johor (ISO 9000 – Construction), UITM Shah Alam Selangor (Knowledge Management/Knowledge Based Economy /TQM), Telesystem Electronics/Digico Cable(ODM/OEM for Astro – ISO 9000), Sungai Long Industries Sdn. Bhd. (Bina Puri Group) - ISO 9000 Construction), Secura Security Printing Sdn. Bhd,(ISO 9000 – Security Printing) ROTOL AMS Bumi Sdn. Bhd & ROTOL Architectural Services Sdn. Bhd. (ROTOL Group) – ISO 9000 –Architecture, Bond M & E (KL) Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9000 – Construction/M & E), Skyline Telco (M) Sdn. Bhd. (Knowledge Management),Technochase Sdn. Bhd JB (ISO 9000 – Construction), Institut Kefahaman Islam Malaysia (IKIM – ISO 9000 & Internal Audit Refresher), Shinryo/Steamline Consortium (Petronas/OGP Power Co-Generation Plant Melaka – Construction Management and Safety, Health, Environment), Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Negotiation Skills), Association for Retired Intelligence Operatives of Malaysia (Cyber Security – Arpa/NSFUsenet, Cobit, Till, ISO/IEC ISMS 27000 for Law/Enforcement/Military), T.Yamaichi Corp. (M) Sdn. Bhd. (EMS ISO 14000) LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd., (Lean Scoreboard (including a full development of System-Software-Application - MSC Malaysia & Six Sigma) PJZ Marine Services Sdn. Bhd., (Safety Management Systems and Internal Audit based on International Marine Organization Standards) UNITAR/UNTEC (Degree in Accountacy – Career Path/Roadmap) Cobrain Holdings Sdn. Bhd.(Managing Construction Safety & Health), Speaker for International Finance & Management Strategy (Closed Conference), Pembinaan Jaya Zira Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9001:2008-Internal Audit for Construction Industry & Overview of version 2015), Straits Consulting Engineers Sdn. Bhd. (Full Integrated Management System – ISO 9000, OHSAS 1800 and EMS ISO 14000 for Civl/Structural/Geotechnical Consulting), Malaysia Management & Science University (MSU – (Managing Business in an Organization), Innoseven Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 MSPR8 – Awareness and Internal Audit (Construction), ISO 9001:2008 and 2015 overview for the Construction Industry), Kemakmuran Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 - Signages/Wayfinding - Project Quality Plan and Construction Method Statement ), Amiosh Resources - (1) Lembaga Tabung Haji - Flood ERP (2) WNA Consultants - DID/JPS -Flood Risk Assessment and Management Plan - Prelim, Conceptual Design, Interim and Final Report etc. (3) Tunnel Fire Safety - Fire Risk Assessment Report - Design Fire Scenario), Safety, Health and Environmental Management Plans leading construction/property companies/corporations in Malaysia. Timur West Consulting (1) Business Methodology and System (2) Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) ISO/IEC 27001:2013 for Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya ISMS/Audit/Risk/ITP Technical Team

* Has appeared for 10 consecutive series in “Good Morning Malaysia RTM TV1’ Corporate Talk Segment discussing on ISO 9000/14000 in various industries. For ICT, his inputs garnered from his expertise have successfully led to development of work-process e-enabling systems in the environments of intranet, portal and interactive web design especially for the construction and manufacturing. Some of the end products have won various competitions of innovativeness, quality, continual-improvements and construction industry award at national level. He has also in advisory capacity – involved in development and moderation of websites, portals and e-profiles for mainly corporate and private sectors, public figures etc. He is also one of the recipients for MOSTE Innovation for RFID use in Electronic Toll Collection in Malaysia



Risk Based Thinking ISO 9001:2015

(The answers provided are not to be deemed as solutions but basic guidelines, please contact me for further details of consultancy and training)

Q : Do I issue NCR for Risk Identification/Assessment? (i.e. HIRARC)

A : Risk Identification/Asessment and even HIRARC itself is an assessment NOT an audit/inspection. Please do not confuse the two. When we talk about risk, the word "proactive" must always come into the picture. Risk Based Thinking in the new ISO 9001:2015 is previously known as "Preventive Action" but spoken in a wider sense.

If you are using HIRARC, then there are "marks" to denote severity and likelihood of the risk being identified. You can note suggestion or instruction for improvement based on your findings and discuss in your Management Review.

Q : I am a newbie in Risk Management, where to start on Risk Based Thinking during upgrading from the old version?

A: ISO 9001:2015 do not make it "a must" to have a full risk management. Unless it's already part of your core business process (especially planning), e.g. using HIRARC, then that's different. Look at your core business process and identify/ brainstorm the possible risk associated with every process where applicable. Using the Risk Register would be a good idea.

The reason why "Risk Based Thinking" is introduced into ISO 9001:2015 is because to reduce non-conformance and customer complaints, to justify clearly (substantiated with evidence) the Department/Unit Objectives, KPI/KRA, Balance Scorecard etc. (not simply pick up a figure from 'the sky')

Note :


TO SEE ALL ARTICLES

ON THE"LABEL" SECTION BELOW (RIGHT SIDE COLUMN), YOU CAN CLICK ON ANY TAG - TO READ ALL ARTICLES ACCORDING TO ITS CATEGORY (E.G. LABEL : CONSTRUCTION) OR GO TO THE VERY END OF THIS BLOG AND CLICK "Older Posts"

Monday, June 09, 2008

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 24 February 2007 at 6:52pm

brooklyn_3p3 wrote:
Hello. I was wondering, how effective is it to set a sell limit on a stock, by that I mean, telling your broker that if the stock reaches a certain level they should sell it? I always wanted to know how to make money in the stock market - without the agonizing stress and uncertainty. Please tell me how is that possible.

------------------------------
Nik Zafri's Response

Here's an interesting article that you should be reading. I've taken part of it from the original source

1. As time goes by. If you're going to invest in stocks, keep in mind a trend is just a trend. In short, don't overreact by trying to time the market. While past performance is not a predictor of future returns, historical data shows holding stocks for the long run really cuts the risk. According to a recent study by Chicago stock research firm Ibbotson Associates, for all three-year holding periods since 1946, stock returns were positive 93 percent of the time, based on the S&P 500 Index.

Take this hypothetical illustration: If you invested $1,000 every year for the past 34 years and reinvested all dividends in the S&P 500 Index, your $34,000 investment would have earned $325,771 if, with the worst timing imaginable, you had invested at the market high of the year. Of course, if you had perfect timing, investing your $1,000 at the market low, you would have earned $365,880. The difference between the extremes? A mere 12 percent; that's less than 1 percent annually. As a long-term investor, you avoid the aggravation of trying to get out at the top and in at the bottom of the market's cycles.

2. The bears wore red; the bulls wore blue. As a rule, the blue-chip stocks of large, well-
established multinational companies are less risky than the stocks of small, little known, single-product firms. When the markets drop, investors often see a "flight to quality," with money going where investors feel safest: the stocks of big companies. No stock, large or small, guarantees investor protection, but large companies are less prone to sudden plunges and are often the first to rebound when the markets begin to turn up again.

3. Don't be misinformed. Get your research from a reliable source--crystal balls and fishing buddies don't count. In-depth research involves the big picture, including political, economic and demographic factors as well as specifics of individual companies.

Technical analysis--using charts and computer programs to identify price trends--provides other information to help you make informed decisions. Base your research on facts, not feelings, hunches or tips.

4. Round up some unusual suspects. Smart investors use overall asset allocation to ensure their portfolios include different classes of securities, such as stocks, bonds and cash. In addition, no stock portfolio should consist of just one or two companies. Diversification means building a multistock portfolio, including domestic and foreign holdings, blue-chip and OTC (over-the-counter) shares, as well as companies in different industries.

5. The start of a beautiful friendship. If you're a risk-ready investor, you keep your eye on several traditional measures of investment value, including price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, price-to-sales ratios and book values. All other things being equal, a stock selling for 60 times earnings is riskier than a stock selling for 10 times earnings. Growth stocks come from companies experiencing accelerated earnings growth; they often sell at high P/Es because investors expect that higher earnings will result in higher share prices. Value stocks are generally shares of long-established companies, often those familiar as household names with predictable long-term earnings growth rates. As you build a diversified portfolio, emphasize both value and growth stocks to protect it from excessive risk.

6. Play it again, Sam. Ups and downs in the market make you queasy, but you still have a financial goal you'd like to reach? Dollar cost averaging is a simple strategy used by investors to add to their holdings by investing a fixed amount of money at set intervals, such as every month or every quarter. This strategy doesn't assure a profit or protect against a loss in the case of a market meltdown, but it can help smooth out the effects of stock price fluctuations. Best of all, you can start with a small initial investment and make additional small, periodic investments in managed accounts.

The principle is simple: When the price of shares is lower, your investment dollars will buy more shares. When the price is higher, you'll buy fewer shares, but the prices of the shares you bought when prices were lower will have increased. The key here is sticking with the program.

Over the long term, assuming that stock prices continue to rise, the average cost of shares purchased through a dollar cost averaging plan will usually be lower than the shares' average price. How? Say you plan to invest $500 quarterly. If you make a purchase at $10 per share, for example, your $500 investment gets you 50 shares. If the share price rises to $20 during the ensuing quarter, your next purchase gets you 25 shares. After two quarters, your hypothetical purchases would total 75 shares bought at $15 each but with a lower average cost of $13.33 per share.

Because this strategy involves periodic investments, consider your financial ability and willingness to continue buying through periods of high and low prices.

7. I came for the stop orders. A stop order is an order to buy or sell a security at the market price once the security has traded at what is known as the stop price. If you're worried about market declines, consider putting protective sell stop orders in place. A stop order to sell is always set below the current market price and is usually designed to protect a profit or limit the loss on a security that you hold at a higher price. It works like this: Say you bought a stock at $40 per share, and now its price has increased to $60 per share. A sell stop at $50 means if your shares decline to $50, your order could possibly lock in a $10 profit, not including commissions.

While this may sound like an easy strategy, there is, naturally, more to it. The risk is that this type of stop order may be executed several points below the stop price because of market orders placed before it. These market orders could radically change your order's execution price. To be more certain of the price at which your order will go off, consider a stop-limit order. This kind of stop order becomes a sell order only when the specific stop price is reached. Unfortunately, the stop-limit order carries the risk of missing the market altogether since the specific price may never occur. In our above example, say you set a sell stop-limit order of $50, which is reached but delayed because of market orders ahead of it. If these market orders cause the stock price to fall below the $50 stop-limit, your stock will not get sold and you'll still own it at whatever price it reaches.

Setting stop orders is tricky business because sell orders can be triggered by temporary volatility. Cautious investors move stop orders up as stock prices rise, but the trick is to avoid setting them too close or too far from the price of the stock in question. Consult your financial advisor for more information on how best to use stop orders.

Volatile markets are the ones that separate the investors from the speculators, those who panic from those who profit. Whatever kind of investing you decide to do, make sure you and your portfolio are risk-ready

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