Malaysia Economic Monitor, December 2015 - Immigrant Labour

Key Findings 

The Malaysian economy continues to expand, albeit at a slower pace.

• Growth is projected to be 4.7% in 2015, easing to 4.5% in 2016 and 2017.
• Private consumption growth is expected to moderate from 7.0% in 2014 to 5.3% in 2015 and 2016, affected by the slowdown in disposable income and a softer labour market, though unemployment remains low.
• Fixed investment is projected to continue expanding, driven by strong public infrastructure development, despite a downturn in the oil and gas sector
• The current account surplus is projected to narrow from 4.3% of GDP in 2014 to 2.5% of GDP in 2015, driven by low commodity prices.
• Malaysia has managed the downturn in commodity prices and the financial market volatility with an appropriate policy mix, notably exchange rate flexibility. 
• The authorities have allowed the Ringgit to nominally depreciate by 20.5% from January 2015 until December 8, 2015.
• The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the removal of fuel subsidies were timely and critical reforms implemented by the government. Fuel subsidy removals have led to fiscal savings of 0.9% of GDP, while GST collection is expected to amount to 2.3% of GDP in 2015.
• These measures partly compensated for lower oil related revenues that are projected to decline from 6% of GDP in 2014 (30% of total revenue) to 3.8% of GDP (19.7% of overall revenues) in 2015.
• Fiscal consolidation and resolving political issues can help reassure foreign investors and cope with heightened external vulnerability.

Immigrant labour plays a crucial role in Malaysia’s development. Immigrants – both high- and low-skilled – will be needed for the country to achieve high income status by 2020.

• Malaysia has the fourth largest number of migrants and the seventh highest ratio of migrants to total population in East Asia Pacific.
• There are 2.1 million registered immigrants in Malaysia and likely over 1 million undocumented immigrants, making up 15% of Malaysia’s workforce in 2014.
• As Malaysians have become more educated and seek out higher-skilled jobs, and as the labour market remains tight, immigrant labour has filled gaps in low- and mid-skilled jobs, which make up three quarters of all jobs in Malaysia.
• Econometric modeling suggests that a 10% net increase in low-skilled foreign workers may increase Malaysia’s GDP by as much as 1.1%.
• For every 10 new immigrant workers in a given state and sector, up to five new jobs may be created for Malaysians in that state and sector, two of them female.  
• Economic modelling suggests that a 10 percent net increase in low-skilled foreign workers may increase real GDP by up to 1.1 percent. 
• A 10% increase in immigration flow slightly increases the wages of Malaysians by 0.14%. Yet it significantly reduces salaries of immigrant workers already in the country by 3.94%.  A 10% increase in immigration flow reduces wages of the least-educated Malaysians, which represent 14% of the total labour force, by 0.74%.
• The fiscal burden is mainly borne by undocumented immigrants. Documented immigrants in Malaysia raise employment and wages of Malaysians which in turn contributes to public revenues. Also, levies pay for work permits of documented immigrant workers raising 1.2% of total revenues in 2014, they have to have health insurance which reduces the burden on the government.

Recommendations: Six possible directions for reform for Malaysia to strengthen its immigration system.

• Aligning the institutional and legislative framework with the human resource development strategy;
• Establishing an evidence-based system for identifying labour market shortages that immigrant labour can fill;
• Adopting a live-levy system that responds to labour market needs identified in the evidence-based system;
• Using a broader set of criteria to categorize immigrants (i.e. skills, experience) and defining approaches for their recruitment, employment, and repatriation;
• Strengthening monitoring and enforcement of immigration and labour regulations; and
• Investing in upskilling the unskilled workforce, and promoting productivity-enhancing technology.

(Full report : Please e-mail nikzafri@yahoo.com) 

MALAYSIAN ECONOMIC MONITOR - WORLD BANK

BOOSTING TRADE COMPETITIVENESS

Following the review of near-term developments and outlook, the thematic chapter of this Economic Monitor analyzes structural trends in trade competitiveness.

Trade competitiveness is measured as Malaysia’s ability to grow its exports and the domestic value-added embodied within them, leveraging foreign demand and knowledge to support its transformation to a high income nation.

Nearly 60 percent of value-added produced in Malaysia was ultimately consumed by foreigners in 2009 – one of the highest shares in the world.

The share of Malaysia’s GDP consumed in foreign markets includes the value-added of exporting firms and also of suppliers to export-oriented industries. Thus the actual significance of external demand to the Malaysian economy is higher than it appears from net exports (22 percent of GDP) or the output from externally-oriented industries (38 percent of GDP).

The export engine appears to have been faltering since before the Global Financial Crisis.

The share of exports of goods and services in Malaysia’s GDP declined by nearly 30 percentage points between 2005 and 2013. Unlike Thailand, Vietnam and Korea, which saw market shares expand, Malaysia’s share shrunk from 1.35 to 1.22 percent in that period. However, Malaysian exports have included a higher portion of domestic value-added, mitigating the impact of the decline in gross shares.

The decline in exports has been concentrated in Malaysia’s core export product segment – E&E products.

E&E exports as a share of GDP declined from about 38 percent between 2002 and 2004 to 18 percent in 2013, and Malaysia’s market share in the period declined from 5.25 percent to 3.74 percent of global E&E exports. Meanwhile, exports of commodities, and commodity-related manufactures such as petrochemicals expanded, but not enough to compensate the decline in E&E exports.

The domestic value-added of Malaysian E&E exports is relatively low due to limited domestic linkages.

Malaysia remains an integral part of the E&E global value chain, but at 44 percent the share of valueadded  in exports is relatively low. This is partly due to limited domestic linkages. Compared to other countries, the contribution from domestic intermediaries to the value-added of exports is only 7 percent in Malaysia compared to 31 percent in Korea. This finding is supported by analysis of enterprise survey data, which finds that multinationals in Malaysia source less than 40 percent of their inputs from domestic firms compared to 46 percent in Vietnam and 82 percent in China.

Exports of services have also lagged and remain an area of significant potential.

Malaysia has few services-exporting firms and at 12 percent of GDP services exports are below what would  be expected for a country at its level of income.

‘Behind the borders’ restrictions hinders export growth and limits linkages between domestic providers and export-oriented industries.

Although the Government has recently embarked on a liberalization of services  sectors, many are still relatively restrictive as measured by the World Bank’s Services Trade. Restrictiveness index and assessment of the burden of non-tariff measures. Professional and transport services are more restrictive on average than most countries in East Asia for example. A restrictive domestic environment reduces incentives for exporting, and for exporting firms to buy more domestic value-added. Barriers are not limited to ownership restrictions, but extend to licensing and regulations that limit domestic competition.

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MALAYSIA'S NEAR TERM OUTLOOK

From : The World Bank

PRESS RELEASE

Malaysia’s Near-Term Outlook still Favorable; Smart Natural Resource Management Ensures Smooth Path to High Income Economy

June 24, 2013

KUALA LUMPUR, JUNE 24, 2013--- Resilient domestic demand will allow the Malaysian economy to recover from a slow first quarter in 2013, says a new World Bank report. GDP is expected to grow by 5.1% for both 2013 and 2014, driven by higher consumer and business spending. As the global recovery gathers speed in 2014, the Bank report states, Malaysia's external sector will increase its contribution to growth, offsetting the impact of tighter fiscal policies on the domestic economy.

Released today, the World Bank’s Malaysia Economic Monitor: Harnessing Natural Resources, notes that Malaysia’s trade has become more dominated by commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, rubber and palm oil. With prospects for demand in commodities dampened by weak growth in key export markets such as China and Europe, and an abundance of supply globally, Malaysia needs to accelerate structural reforms to ensure that its economy remains diversified and dynamic.

"Malaysia has done remarkably well over the last two decades," says Kaushik Basu, Chief Economist at the World Bank. "However, the coming onstream of new sources of global energy is likely to put downward pressure on several commodity prices. This will no doubt put restraints on growth on a commodity-exporting country like Malaysia. I hope Malaysia will show the nimbleness it has shown in the past."

Malaysia is one of a few developing countries that has successfully converted an abundance of natural resources into long-term sustainable growth. As noted in the report, sound policy choices ensured revenues from resource extraction were reinvested in the economy in the form of machines, buildings and education. This supported high rates of growth that was shared among the population, raising the average incomes of the bottom 40 percent of rural households by 7.1 percent a year over three decades, while poverty rates

plummeted.

"Malaysia is a good example of a country that has successfully used natural resources to invest in other areas of the economy,” says Annette Dixon, World Bank Country Director for Malaysia. “This has allowed the country to promote diversification, create jobs and improve living standards for its people."

While Malaysia can be seen in many ways as a blueprint for other resource-rich, developing economies to follow, important challenges have emerged as a consequence of the global boom in commodity prices in the 2000s. In recent years, the economy has become less diversified, with high-tech manufacturing declining and commodities increasing as a share of exports. As highlighted in this report, reversing this trend, as well as saving a higher share of revenues from oil and gas, will enhance the resilience of

Malaysia’s economy.

"To reach its goal of becoming a high-income nation, Malaysia will need to continue managing natural resources sustainably," says Frederico Gil Sander, World Bank Senior Economist for Malaysia. He added, "Some adjustments are needed to spend less of the resource revenues on consumption and more on building skills and institutions that will support further diversification."

The report suggests that policy makers in Malaysia consider measures to enhance structural reform and management of natural resource revenues going forward, including:

* Improving sustainable consumption of natural resources by increasing the role of Malaysia's formal oil wealth fund, reforming fuel subsidies and reviewing gas pricing.

* Diversifying the economy towards higher productive investments in non-commodity sectors through improvements in human capital and better public investment management systems.

* Adapting agricultural commodity production to the effects of climate change.

The Malaysia Economic Monitor series provides an analytical perspective on the policy challenges facing Malaysia as it grows into a high-income economy. The series also represents an effort to reach out to a broad audience, including policymakers, private sector leaders, market participants, civil society and academia.

The financial sector is part of Malaysia's success

OPINION

Axel Van Trotsenburg

New Straits Times

June 4, 2013

STABILITY: The nation's banks are well capitalised and governance applies equally to all financial institutions

MALAYSIA'S dynamic economy and its rise to middle-income nation status offer lessons for many countries seeking to reduce poverty and build shared prosperity.

The country's economy shows continued strong momentum with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimated at five per cent for this year. Malaysia's highly open economy has displayed remarkable resilience in the face of a weak global environment as domestic demand remains robust.

Malaysians now enjoy an annual gross national income (GNI) per capita of almost US$10,000 (RM30,000) and the country is working towards becoming a high-income economy.

Macroeconomic management has been strong and the business environment robust.

The latest figures on household income show that the bottom 40 per cent of people have benefited from economic growth and extreme poverty has been nearly eradicated. The economic and social progress is impressive considering that five decades ago, the GNI per capita was only US$300.

The country's transformation provides many examples of how Malaysia improved living standards for its people.

One area that stands out as a major contributor to Malaysia's success is its innovative and inclusive financial sector.

Malaysia has developed a full range of financial services from microfinance to special loans for farmers tied to growing seasons and financing for small- and medium-scale enterprises.

Malaysia has one of the highest levels of financial inclusion in the world at 92 per cent and the country has taken advantage of mobile phones and online banking to expand access.

Development of an inclusive financial sector is key to building shared prosperity, as access to finance is critical to the ability of small entrepreneurs to grow their businesses and their incomes and to create jobs.

This has contributed to the growth of small- and medium-scale enterprises that now employ close to 40 per cent of the country's workforce.

Malaysia's innovative and sound financial services sector was partly born out of the lessons the country learned from going through the pain and loss of the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s.

Today's financial sector is underpinned by modern rules, regulations and governance, and solid institutions to ensure stability of the system.

Having learned from the crisis, Malaysia is now sharing its experience with other developing countries so they develop regulatory policies and institutions to help mitigate the risk against a potential crisis.

Fundamental to the stability of Malaysia's financial system is its adoption of compliance with global standards for supervision and regulation of banking and insurance.

At the same time, Malaysia's banks are well capitalised and governance and regulations apply equally to all financial institutions across the country.

In addition, the court system and alternative mechanisms including arbitration facilitate resolution of disputes.

Malaysia has also become a global leader in Islamic finance or participant banking.

During the last decade, the country has boosted financial inclusion partly by developing an Islamic finance agenda to promote stability and stronger ties between finance and the real sector.

Islamic finance traditionally served as an alternative channel for banking and financial transactions in accordance with Islamic practices.

The quality of service and sound practices adopted by Malaysian financial institutions has proven its viability.

The World Bank is looking forward to working with Malaysia to continue sharing lessons from its financial sector success with developing countries where improved financial services could be part of the solution to lift millions of people out of extreme poverty.

World Bank to Support South-South Knowledge Exchange on Higher Education Reforms

PRESS RELEASE

May 20, 2013

Kuala Lumpur, May 20, 2013 – Officials from Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia working on higher education reform will exchange experiences with Malaysian counterparts at a 4-day workshop beginning today, supported by the World Bank and the British Council Malaysia. The event is part of the Bank’s ongoing effort to encourage countries across regions to learn from each other to find innovative solutions.

“The final goals of higher education are much the same across countries,” said Annette Dixon, Country Director for the World Bank in Malaysia. “We hope our support to bring policy-makers, members of academia and advocates from Malaysia, Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia together will enable them to learn from each other and explore new ideas that will help improve the quality of higher education in their countries.”

Malaysia acted early to take on many key reforms in its higher education system including the establishment of the Quality Assurance System in the 1990s. Algeria, Morocco and Tunsia will share their experience in improving institutional autonomy and accountability measures for universities.

“Policy-makers from developing countries are learning about how Malaysia successfully implemented key reforms in higher education.  The recent development on institutional reform, which focuses on granting key research universities more autonomy, together with much strengthened accountability, is of particular interest to them,” said Dandan Chen, World Bank Senior Economist. 

The 15-member visiting delegation is meeting with Malaysia’s Ministry of Higher Education and other government agencies to discuss issues such as higher education accreditation, quality assurance, and strengthening governance in universities and colleges. They are also visiting selected public and private universities and colleges to exchange lessons drawn from institutional reforms.

This knowledge event is funded by the Bank’s “South-South Experience Exchange Facility,” which was established in October 2008 to support global knowledge exchange projects that draw directly upon the expertise of developing countries and provides a platform for countries to share lessons.

Malaysia Continues to Improve in Ease of Doing Business

WORLD BANK
October 23, 2012
PRESS RELEASE


Kuala Lumpur, October 23, 2012—A new report from IFC and the World Bank finds that Malaysia remains among the world’s most business-friendly countries.

Released today, Doing Business 2013: Smarter Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises  notes that Malaysia made dealing with construction permits faster by improving the one-stop center for new buildings and by reducing the time to connect to telephone services.

“Malaysia is to be commended for its ongoing efforts to reduce the costs of doing business,” said Annette Dixon, World Bank Country Director for Malaysia. “This will help the private sector drive growth, especially if Malaysia can build on its success by continuing to tackle long-term challenges, such as improving the quality of education.”

Malaysia also cut the number of days it takes to register property transfers by introducing a new caseload management system at the land registry. Inspired by effective supply chain management strategies employed by the private sector, the registry reduced registration time from 41 days in 2011 to 7 days in 2012 for non strata properties (those that are not part of a subdivision or common-interest community).

“Malaysia continues to improve the quality of domestic regulations. This has great potential to energize the private sector when combined with stepped-up implementation of strategic reform initiatives, especially the liberalization of services sectors and the enforcement of the new competition law,” said Frederico Gil Sander, World Bank Senior Economist for Malaysia.

The Doing Business 2013 report, which covers the period from June 2011 to June 2012 and which uses data for indicators that measure regulation affecting 10 key areas of the life cycle of local businesses, finds that Singapore tops the global ranking on the ease of doing business for the seventh consecutive year, while Hong Kong SAR, China, holds onto the second spot.

The report finds that 23 economies in East Asia and the Pacific have made their regulatory environment more business-friendly since 2005. During that time, China made the greatest progress in improving business regulations for local entrepreneurs. The report also notes that 11 of 24 economies in East Asia and the Pacific improved business regulations in the past year.

Joining Singapore and Hong Kong SAR, China, on the list of the 10 economies with the most business-friendly regulations are, in this order, New Zealand; the United States; Denmark; Norway; the United Kingdom; the Republic of Korea; Georgia; and Australia.

About the Doing Business report series

Doing Business analyzes regulations that apply to an economy’s businesses during their life cycle, including start-up and operations, trading across borders, paying taxes, and protecting investors. The aggregate ease of doing business rankings are based on 10 indicators and cover 185 economies. Doing Business does not measure all aspects of the business environment that matter to firms and investors. For example, it does not measure the quality of fiscal management, other aspects of macroeconomic stability, the level of skills in the labor force, or the resilience of financial systems. Its findings have stimulated policy debates worldwide and enabled a growing body of research on how firm-level regulation relates to economic outcomes across economies. This year’s report marks the 10th edition of the global Doing Business report series.


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URBANIZATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Dean Cira, Urban Expert, World Bank 

SUBMITTED BY HUONG LAN VU ON TUE, 2012-06-19 14:47

Urbanization itself cannot guarantee economic growth, but it does appear to be an inevitable process on the way to development: no country has achieved high income status without first urbanizing, and nearly all countries become at least 50% urbanized before fully reaching middle income status.

The trick is in how to manage this process in a way that plays up the benefits and minimizes the challenges it brings. 

When I was a little child, we lived in a 30m2 house in the suburbs of Hanoi, Vietnam, with intermittent supplies of power and clean water. But I enjoyed playing on the quiet and clean street in front of my house. Twenty years later, my whole neighborhood has been nicely renovated; there’s enough electricity to run all appliances in my house, including two air conditioners. But I get stuck in traffic every day on my way to work, and the smog is so thick I can hardly breathe, even with a mask on my face.

Urbanization has arrived to my hometown with both advantages and challenges. However, noises, heavy traffic, and air and water pollution are not unique to Hanoi. They can be observed in many cities in emerging countries all over the world (such as China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, or Nigeria). The Vietnam Urbanization Reviewnotes that if these challenges are well managed, they will allow cities like Hanoi to retain its unique charm and livability while enjoying the benefits that urbanization brings.    

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URBANIZATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

SUBMITTED BY NIK ZAFRI ON WED, 2012-06-20 05:05.

Urbanization; to a certain degree; has always been an indicator to the level of success in the context of economics.I have no qualms against urbanization knowing the benefits of it such as infrastructures, job opportunity, healthcare, education, roads/highways, etc.

But nowadays urbanization can be a menace if not properly planned. No doubt proper town planning is always there for new plans of urbanization to incorporate elements of sustainable development - green building, environmental management systems, control of carbon emission etc. etc.

I'm talking about the current urbanized locations - as you've mentioned - traffic jams, uncontrolled pollution, bustling cities, social impacts such as crime, disunity as well.

I feel that the most important thing that the current urbanized location require is a mass awareness to be communicated to all of them using various tools such as the internet, the billboards, the conventional flyers/brochures/buntings etc, free seminars etc. to make them understand the significance of protecting the environment (to include contractors, developers etc.), have more unity-based activities rather than being in 'clans'/'groups', ice-breakings programs disregarding race/religious backgrounds etc.

Of course, everyone nowadays are talking about money and more money or having job opportunities or disliking certain political parties. For this, the mayors, the councillors, the authorities, the political parties, including people's representatives, religious representatives, associations etc. must come together to draw up a plan now!

Well, many would disagree with me but my intention making a call of unity and peace will always be there. If not here, elsewhere - till the day I die.

NEW PRESIDENT OF THE WORLD BANK

Dr. Jim Yong Kim is the 12th president of the World Bank Group. He is chairman of the Bank’s Board of Executive Directors and president of a group of five interrelated organizations:

* The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)

* International Development Association (IDA)

* International Finance Corporation (IFC)

* Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA)

* International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID).

(ICSID operates as a secretariat whose secretary-general is selected by its governing Administrative Council every six years. The World Bank Group president is chairman of the Administrative Council.)

The Executive Vice Presidents of IFC and MIGA report to the President of the World Bank Group.

-------------------------------------------------------

Jim Yong Kim, M.D., Ph.D., became the 12th President of the World Bank Group on July 1, 2012.

A physician and anthropologist, Dr. Kim has dedicated himself to international development for more than two decades, helping to improve the lives of under-served populations worldwide. Dr. Kim comes to the Bank after serving as President of Dartmouth College, a pre-eminent center of higher education that consistently ranks among the top academic institutions in the United States. Dr. Kim is a co-founder of Partners In Health (PIH) and a former director of the HIV/AIDS Department at the World Health Organization (WHO).

As President of Dartmouth – an institution that comprises a liberal arts college and professional schools of medicine, engineering and business, as well as 19 graduate programs in the arts and sciences, a staff and faculty of 3,300, and a budget of $700 million – Dr. Kim earned praise for reducing a financial deficit without cutting any academic programs. Dr. Kim also founded the Dartmouth Center for Health Care Delivery Science, a multidisciplinary institute dedicated to developing new models of health care delivery and achieving better health outcomes at lower costs.

Before assuming the Dartmouth presidency, Dr. Kim held professorships and chaired departments at Harvard Medical School, the Harvard School of Public Health and Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston. He also served as director of Harvard’s François-Xavier Bagnoud Center for Health and Human Rights.

In 1987, Dr. Kim co-founded Partners In Health, a Boston-based non-profit organization now working in poor communities on 4 continents. Challenging previous conventional wisdom that drug-resistant tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS could not be treated in developing countries, PIH successfully tackled these diseases by integrating large-scale treatment programs into community-based primary care.

As Director of the World Health Organization’s HIV/AIDS Department, Dr. Kim led the ‘3 by 5’ initiative, the first-ever global goal for AIDS treatment, which sought to treat 3 million new HIV/AIDS patients in developing countries with antiretroviral drugs by 2005. Launched in September 2003, the ambitious program ultimately reached its goal by 2007.

Dr. Kim’s work has earned him wide recognition. He was awarded a MacArthur “Genius” Fellowship (2003), was named one of America’s “25 Best Leaders” by U.S. News & World Report (2005), and was selected as one of TIME magazine’s “100 Most Influential People in the World” (2006).

Born in 1959 in Seoul, South Korea, Dr. Kim moved with his family to the United States at the age of five and grew up in Muscatine, Iowa. Dr. Kim graduated with an A.B. magna cum laude from Brown University in 1982. He earned an M.D. from Harvard Medical School in 1991 and a Ph.D. in anthropology from Harvard University in 1993.

He is married to Dr. Younsook Lim, a pediatrician. The couple has two young sons.

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New World Bank president pledges support for poor

Associated Press, Washington | World | Tue, July 03 2012, 7:57 AM

Korean-American Jim Yong Kim has begun his new job as president of the World Bank, promising to immediately focus on helping poor countries navigate a fragile global economy.

Kim tells reporters the 187-nation development agency is in a strong financial position to help poor countries respond to slowing growth and uncertainty from the debt crisis in Europe.

Kim was a surprise nominee of President Barack Obama. He succeeds Robert Zoellick.

Barack Obama (R) makes a point about Dartmouth College president Jim Yong Kim (L) as he introduces him as his nominee to be the next president of the World Bank, during an announcement in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, March 23, 2012. (Pic : Jonathan Ernst / Reuters)

Developing nations waged an unsuccessful challenge to Kim, a physician and pioneer in treating HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis in the developing world. They think the U.S. should not automatically get to decide who leads the organization.

Kim says he will discuss with the board issues raised by developing countries about the institution's structure.

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"We recognize that for the first time in the history of the World Bank there was an open process for the selection of the President that involved a debate on the priorities and the future of the institution.Future selection processes must build on this process, but must be transparent and truly merit-based." (G24 Group/Communique)

12 November 2009, 10:00 AM EST

The economic rebound in East Asia and the Pacific has been surprisingly swift and very welcome, but take China out of the equation and the regional picture is less rosy, says the World Bank's half-yearly assessment of the economic health of the East Asia and Pacific region.

Ivailo Izvorski, Lead Economist and author of the report, and Vikram Nehru, Chief Economist for the East Asia and Pacific region, were online on Thursday, November 12 to answer your questions.

NIK ZAFRI ABDUL MAJID: I beg to differ with the statement. I think growth are quite moderate but progressing in East Asia (EA) and Pacific Region. We're still shocked by the 2009 global financial crisis and very careful in making critical decisions. The impacts of the recent global financial crisis did affect the stability in the cost of living, policies concerning eradication of poverty and most importantly employment. I'm talking about soon to be developed countries such as Malaysia - not to mention the underdeveloped ones. Even if China is included, the slow growth in the neighbouring countries have somehow affect the industrial production and export.

My question :

Is there a posibility that the World Bank amend its current fiscal strategy on Pacific and EA by focussing on the underdeveloped countries first rather than the developed and potentially developed ones? (These are the countries that are really needing to receive advise/consultancy from WB in terms of infrastructure investments and socio-economic matters. If they are affected, even China and India won't sustain long)

http://www.nikzafri.blogspot.com

Vikram Nehru: Dear Nik Zafri – the World Bank doesn’t concentrate on poor or rich countries, it concentrates on the poor. When measured at the $1.25 a day international poverty line, there are more poor in the middle income countries of East Asia than there are in the region’s low income countries!! In many large middle income countries (China and India included), some provinces are bigger than most countries, and these provinces have very high poverty rates. The Bank’s objective is a world without poverty – and to achieve that, we must work equally hard in low income and middle income countries alike.



Mr. Vikram Nehru is the Director for Poverty Reduction, Economic Management, and Private and Financial Sector Development and Acting Chief Economist in the East Asia Region of the World Bank. Earlier he was Director of the World Bank’s Economic Policy and Debt Department – the department responsible for covering developing country macroeconomic and debt issues, including growth diagnostics, sub-national development, fiscal analysis, HIPC implementation, low income country debt sustainability, and middle income country debt dynamics. An Indian national, Mr. Nehru completed his graduate and postgraduate degrees at Oxford University before working with the Government of India for four years. He began his career with the World Bank in 1981 through the Young Professionals Program. Since then, he has worked in several capacities and on a number of countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Ghana, and China. His latest papers cover such issues as exogenous shocks, debt sustainability, and the development challenges in Indonesia and China. He has also had extensive research experience on issues of economic growth, capital stock measurement, financial sector policy, industrial and trade policy, and on the implications of global trends and developments on the economic prospects of developing countries.

NIK ZAFRI'S (HUMBLE) ASIA/SEA ECONOMICAL FORECAST 2009

Many have forecasted that SEA will be the first to rebound from the current economic crisis by September, 2009.

On the other hand, what saddens me most is that some even forecasted that Asian economy will fall badly in 2009 - such a pathetic statement meant to discourage us.
In the past, we have been known for the reputation of outperforming the US and Europe due to the right planning and eventually become very immune to any credit crunch from the West.

Some countries are not even depending on IMF or World Bank in 1997-1998-remember? Even China has been too much underestimated (not that I disagree but too much 'smart' speculations..come on) by these 'so-called' economic forecasters.

I have always been known as a 'reverse psychological' person. I don't believe in 'too obvious bad news' being reported meant to lure the small investors away but giving great monetary advantages to speculators.

Based on these 'unfounded fears', I feel strongly that the Asian will be one of the key players in the world economy commencing from 2009.

But of course, I have a different theory (especially for Malaysia) - I think it's earlier than that...say April, 2009?

But, I share the agreement that it is likely going to be Singapore then probably followed by Malaysia. There have been a trend of banking and financial institutions in these two neighbouring countries offering new packages to GLCs and MNCs. These efforts would probably contribute to economy recovery in 2009. There has also been a higher demand for exports from Malaysia and Singapore based on the increased spending in the Euro and US.

The banking sectors in Japan are planning to buy securities, stocks and bonds (corporate) etc - and if these plan works, it will help stabilise their financial market. The Government has announce Japan's biggest ever annual budget Y12,000bn.

China however would still have to be put under alert - to grow or not to grow. Since China are trading with other SEA countries, their ability to export surplus stocks financed on credit should be monitored. New policies to boost consumption need to be drawn up to counter this possibility. I do know that China works very-very hard lately not to be bound to 'intelligent economic comments' e.g. decoupling - and I have every confident that they will succeed.

In Indonesia, the President announce the budget of USD200 billion ++ and a 6.2% growth is expected. However, they are not too sure about the outcome of issuance of Government bonds and probably there will be a budget deficit of nearly 2% GDP. Mainly taxes will play a role for the main revenue followed by non-tax sectors. There will also be about 102 trillion rupiah for fuel subsidy.

The only biggest dillema in Indonesia is corruption - if this is not being minimized, I do not think that they can reach the target that they are hoping for. While for the good part that Indonesia has done right is their achievement of regaining self-sufficiency in rice where the production has surpassed the country's rice consumption. This has made them better in terms of food situation and probably would take them out of the current global food crisis.

For Korea, they are not too ambitious; which I find a good thing to do - be cautious. While everyone is hoping and praying for a 2009 turnaround, Korea predicted a 3% growth and the focus is mainly creating new job opportunity. They have also cut taxes here and there.

Korean consumer price is estimated to stabilize to less than 4% and there may also be decreasing service deficitit and rising goods surplus - thus making 2009 account surplus to exceed USD10 billion. I personally think that Korea should now put an effort to minimize their dependency on IMF as what they have done before in 1997.

I will keep you all updated.

As you all have already known that the financial experts (or so called) have commenced their efforts to charter the implications of this year's credit crisis (esp. in the US) as a result of financial market turbulence. Not too long ago, everyone is aiming at the renaissance of China but with the current condition they are facing, it may potentially be a little while before their internal problems can be stabilized if not solved fully.

So, what can our world governments do? I humbly think that the financial market should be slowly integrated to become a global network or hub. Except for US, I've seen efforts via conferences and seminars towards implementing such plans. I'm also shocked to know the rate of countries retreating from Euro these days.

US on the other hand; if not properly controlled; may affect even to the security matters - just wait if New York started to feel the pinch and everything will start to lead to one problem to another. (esp. security matters) I do not know if US need to cut down on foreign assistance at the moment - but if this is the case, then the fiscal pinch may affect the amount of such aid. If I may say, I hope that New York can start efforts of working together with other financial hubs to become a network of global capitals. The only setback is the global political stability as whenever there are plans of more effective and beneficial integration, the political element has to be part and parcel of financial market. Of course, I don't need to tell how much US can save by less interfering in other countries internal affairs as what have been done in Africa, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. US Bush Administration has tried their best to save their economy but it is too sluggish - I hope they can crush their ego and restrategize - try to create a better relationships with other countries - they have tried too many models and these models just don't work...

We can no longer depend on IMF, World Bank (now almost irrelevant) and even the UN (they themselves are now in hot soup despite funded the US) but we have to do something NOW to create a healthier market - e.g. making more rooms for reserves. We know that UN's stand on Darfur, Georgia & Pakistan - total silence for unknown reason.

When I talk about integration or interdepence, I'm not really pointing towards globalization as it is still a concept of uncertainty that may become a friend or a foe. That is too much for a small guy like me to anticipate. Just referring to the good ol' concept working together as a team. This 'teamwork' may lead to good global financial governance will create better monetary policies, securities regulations and even signifcant changes can be made to auditing and accounting standards.

Where would be the ideal starting point? The answer is the first tier - Banking and Financial Institutions. I would like to open this suggestion to Asia (or SEA) as Asia is a very unique continent that has always found a way towards survival. (perhaps some democratization of financial policies should be in place) Most important is TRUST and coordinated efforts one another - as every bankers and financiers have all the knowledge. (Don't wait for someone else to start first) There should be no more too much dependency on certain elite groups or industries that are 'controlling the financial world' and we have seen the impact when these 'big mega industries' started to fall. (NASTY!)

Again, my 2 sens worth!

Here an article I would like to share :

http://www.globalexchange.org/campaigns/rulemakers/TenWaysToDemocratize.html

10 Ways to Democratize the Global Economy

Citizens can and should play an active role in shaping the future of our global economy. Here are some of the ways in which we can work together to reform global trade rules, demand that corporations are accountable to people's needs, build strong and free labor and promote fair and environmentally sustainable alternatives.

1. No Globalization without Representation

Multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund create global policy with input mainly from multinational corporations and very little input from grassroots citizens groups. We need to ensure that all global citizens must be democratically represented in the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of all global social and economic policies of the WTO, the IMF, and the WB. The WTO must immediately halt all meetings and negotiations in order for a full, fair, and public assessment to be conducted of the impacts of the WTO's policies to date. The WTO must be replaced by a body that is fully democratic, transparent, and accountable to citizens of the entire world instead of to corporations. We must build support for trade policies that protect workers, human rights, and the environment.

2. Mandate Corporate Accountability

Corporations have so heavily influenced global trade negotiations that they now have rights and representation greater than individual citizens and even governments. Under the guise of 'free trade' they advocate weakening of labor and environmental laws -- a global economy of sweatshops and environmental devastation. Corporations must be subject to the people's will; they should have to prove their worth to society or be dismantled. Corporations must be accountable to public needs, be open to public scrutiny, provide living wage jobs, abide by all environmental and labor regulations, and be subject to all laws governing them. Shareholder activism is an excellent tool for challenging corporate behavior.

3. Restructure the Global Financial Architecture

Currency speculation and the derivatives market move over $1.5 trillion daily (compared to world trade of $6 trillion annually), earning short-term profits for wealthy investors at the expense of long-term development. Many countries are beginning to implement 'capital controls' in order to regulate the influence foreign capital, and grassroots groups are advocating the restructuring and regulation of the global financial architecture. Citizens can pass local city resolutions for the Tobin Tax - a tax of .1% to .25% on currency transactions which would provide a disincentive for speculation but not affect real capital investment, and create a huge fund for building schools & clinics throughout the world.

4. Cancel all Debt, End Structural Adjustment and Defend Economic Sovereignty

Debt is crushing most poor countries' ability to develop as they spend huge amounts of their resources servicing odious debt rather than serving the needs of their populations. Structural adjustment is the tool promoted by the IMF and World Bank to keep countries on schedule with debt payments, with programs promoting export-led development at the expense of social needs. There is an international movement demanding that all debt be cancelled in the year 2000 in order for countries to prioritize health care, education, and real development. Countries must have the autonomy to pursue their own economic plans, including prioritizing social needs over the needs of multinational corporations.

5. Prioritize Human Rights - Including Economic Rights - in Trade Agreements

The United Nations must be the strongest multilateral body - not the WTO. The US must ratify all international conventions on social and political rights. Trade rules must comply with higher laws on human rights as well as economic and labor rights included in the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights. We should promote alternative trade agreements that include fair trade, debt cancellation, micro-credit, and local control over development policies.

6. Promote Sustainable Development - Not Consumption - as the Key to Progress

Global trade and investment should not be ends in themselves, but rather the instruments for achieving equitable and sustainable development, including protection for workers and the environment. Global trade agreements should not undermine the ability of each nation, state or local community to meet its citizens' social, environmental, cultural or economic needs. International development should not be export-driven, but rather should prioritize food security, sustainability, and democratic participation.

7. Integrate Womens' Needs in All Economic Restructuring

Women make up half the world but hold less than 5% of positions of power in determining global economic policy, and own an estimated 1% of global property. Family survival around the world depends on the economic independence of women. Economic policies need to take into account women's important role in nutrition, education, and development. This includes access to family planning as well as education, credit, job training, policy decision-making, and other needs.

8. Build Free and Strong Labor Unions Internationally and Domestically

As trade becomes more 'free,' labor unions are still restricted from organizing in most countries. The International Labor Organization should have the same enforcement power as the WTO. The US should ratify ILO conventions and set an example in terms of enforcing workers' rights to organize and bargain collectively. As corporations increase their multinational strength, unions are working to build bridges across borders and organize globally. Activists can support their efforts and ensure that free labor is an essential component of any 'free trade' agreements.

9. Develop Community Control Over Capital; Promote Socially Responsible Investment

Local communities should not be beholden to the IMF, international capital, multinational corporations, or any other non-local body for policy. Communities should be able to develop investment and development programs that suit local needs including passing anti-sweatshop purchasing restrictions, promoting local credit unions and local barter currency, and implementing investment policies for their city, church, and union that reflect social responsibility criteria.

10. Promote Fair Trade Not Free Trade

While we work to reform 'free trade' institutions and keep corporate chain stores out of our neighborhoods, we should also promote our own vision of Fair Trade. We need to build networks of support and education for grassroots trade and trade in environmentally sustainable goods. We can promote labeling of goods such as Fair Trade Certified, organic, and sustainably harvested. We can purchase locally made goods and locally grown foods that support local economies and cooperative forms of production and trade.