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BIODATA - NIK ZAFRI


 



NIK ZAFRI BIN ABDUL MAJID,
CONSULTANT/TRAINER
Email: nikzafri@yahoo.com, nikzafri@gmail.com
https://nikzafri.wixstudio.com/nikzafriv2

Kelantanese, Alumni of Sultan Ismail College Kelantan (SICA), Business Management/Administration, IT Competency Cert, Certified Written English Professional US. Has participated in many seminars/conferences (local/ international) in the capacity of trainer/lecturer and participant.

Affiliations :- Council/Network Member of Gerson Lehrman Group, Institute of Quality Malaysia, Auditor ISO 9000 IRCAUK, Auditor OHSMS (SIRIM and STS) /EMS ISO 14000 and Construction Quality Assessment System CONQUAS, CIDB (Now BCA) Singapore),

* Possesses almost 30 years of experience/hands-on in the multi-modern management & technical disciplines (systems & methodologies) such as Knowledge Management (Hi-Impact Management/ICT Solutions), Quality (TQM/ISO), Safety Health Environment, Civil & Building (Construction), Manufacturing, Motivation & Team Building, HR, Marketing/Branding, Business Process Reengineering, Economy/Stock Market, Contracts/Project Management, Finance & Banking, etc. He was employed to international bluechips involving in national/international megaprojects such as Balfour Beatty Construction/Knight Piesold & Partners UK, MMI Insurance Group Australia, Hazama Corporation (Hazamagumi) Japan (with Mitsubishi Corporation, JA Jones US, MMCE and Ho-Hup) and Sunway Construction Berhad (The Sunway Group of Companies). Among major projects undertaken : Pergau Hydro Electric Project, KLCC Petronas Twin Towers, LRT Tunnelling, KLIA, Petronas Refineries Melaka, Putrajaya Government Complex, Sistem Lingkaran Lebuhraya Kajang (SILK), Mex Highway, KLIA1, KLIA2 etc. Once serviced SMPD Management Consultants as Associate Consultant cum Lecturer for Diploma in Management, Institute of Supervisory Management UK/SMPD JV. Currently – Associate/Visiting Consultants/Facilitators, Advisors/Technical Experts for leading consulting firms (local and international), certification bodies including project management. To name a few – Noma SWO Consult, Amiosh Resources, Timur West Consultant Sdn. Bhd., TIJ Consultants Group (Malaysia and Singapore), QHSEL Consultancy Sdn. Bhd.

He is also currently holding the Position of Principal Consultant/Executive Director (Special Projects) - Systems and Methods, ESG, QHSE at QHSEL Consultancy Sdn. Bhd.* Ex-Resident Weekly Columnist of Utusan Malaysia (1995-1998) and have produced more than 100 articles related to ISO-9000– Management System and Documentation Models, TQM Strategic Management, Occupational Safety and Health (now OHSAS 18000) and Environmental Management Systems ISO 14000. His write-ups/experience has assisted many students/researchers alike in module developments based on competency or academics and completion of many theses. Once commended by the then Chief Secretary to the Government of Malaysia for his diligence in promoting and training the civil services (government sector) based on “Total Quality Management and Quality Management System ISO-9000 in Malaysian Civil Service – Paradigm Shift Scalar for Assessment System”

Among Nik Zafri’s clients : Adabi Consumer Industries Sdn. Bhd, (MRP II, Accounts/Credit Control) The HQ of Royal Customs and Excise Malaysia (ISO 9000), Veterinary Services Dept. Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), The Institution of Engineers Malaysia (Aspects of Project Management – KLCC construction), Corporate HQ of RHB (Peter Drucker's MBO/KRA), NEC Semiconductor - Klang Selangor (Productivity Management), Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia (ISO 9000), State Secretarial Office Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), Hidrological Department KL (ISO 9000), Asahi Kluang Johor(System Audit, Management/Supervisory Development), Tunku Mahmood (2) Primary School Kluang Johor (ISO 9000), Consortium PANZANA (HSSE 3rd Party Audit), Lecturer for Information Technology Training Centre (ITTC) – Authorised Training Center (ATC) – University of Technology Malaysia (UTM) Kluang Branch Johor, Kluang General Hospital Johor (Management/Supervision Development, Office Technology/Administration, ISO 9000 & Construction Management), Kahang Timur Secondary School Johor (ISO 9000), Sultan Abdul Jalil Secondary School Kluang Johor (Islamic Motivation and Team Building), Guocera Tiles Industries Kluang Johor (EMS ISO 14000), MNE Construction (M) Sdn. Bhd. Kota Tinggi Johor (ISO 9000 – Construction), UITM Shah Alam Selangor (Knowledge Management/Knowledge Based Economy /TQM), Telesystem Electronics/Digico Cable(ODM/OEM for Astro – ISO 9000), Sungai Long Industries Sdn. Bhd. (Bina Puri Group) - ISO 9000 Construction), Secura Security Printing Sdn. Bhd,(ISO 9000 – Security Printing) ROTOL AMS Bumi Sdn. Bhd & ROTOL Architectural Services Sdn. Bhd. (ROTOL Group) – ISO 9000 –Architecture, Bond M & E (KL) Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9000 – Construction/M & E), Skyline Telco (M) Sdn. Bhd. (Knowledge Management),Technochase Sdn. Bhd JB (ISO 9000 – Construction), Institut Kefahaman Islam Malaysia (IKIM – ISO 9000 & Internal Audit Refresher), Shinryo/Steamline Consortium (Petronas/OGP Power Co-Generation Plant Melaka – Construction Management and Safety, Health, Environment), Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Negotiation Skills), Association for Retired Intelligence Operatives of Malaysia (Cyber Security – Arpa/NSFUsenet, Cobit, Till, ISO/IEC ISMS 27000 for Law/Enforcement/Military), T.Yamaichi Corp. (M) Sdn. Bhd. (EMS ISO 14000) LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd., (Lean Scoreboard (including a full development of System-Software-Application - MSC Malaysia & Six Sigma) PJZ Marine Services Sdn. Bhd., (Safety Management Systems and Internal Audit based on International Marine Organization Standards) UNITAR/UNTEC (Degree in Accountacy – Career Path/Roadmap) Cobrain Holdings Sdn. Bhd.(Managing Construction Safety & Health), Speaker for International Finance & Management Strategy (Closed Conference), Pembinaan Jaya Zira Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9001:2008-Internal Audit for Construction Industry & Overview of version 2015), Straits Consulting Engineers Sdn. Bhd. (Full Integrated Management System – ISO 9000, OHSAS 18000 (ISO 45000) and EMS ISO 14000 for Civil/Structural/Geotechnical Consulting), Malaysia Management & Science University (MSU – (Managing Business in an Organization), Innoseven Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 MSPR8 – Awareness and Internal Audit (Construction), ISO 9001:2008 and 2015 overview for the Construction Industry), Kemakmuran Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 - Signages/Wayfinding - Project Quality Plan and Construction Method Statement ), Lembaga Tabung Haji - Flood ERP, WNA Consultants - DID/JPS -Flood Risk Assessment and Management Plan - Prelim, Conceptual Design, Interim and Final Report etc., Tunnel Fire Safety - Fire Risk Assessment Report - Design Fire Scenario), Safety, Health and Environmental Management Plans leading construction/property companies/corporations in Malaysia, Timur West Consultant : Business Methodology and System, Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) ISO/IEC 27001:2013 for Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya ISMS/Audit/Risk/ITP Technical Team, MPDT Capital Berhad - ISO 9001: 2015 - Consultancy, Construction, Project Rehabilitation, Desalination (first one in Malaysia to receive certification on trades such as Reverse Osmosis Seawater Desalination and Project Recovery/Rehabilitation), ABAC Centre of Excellence UK (ABMS ISO 37001) Joint Assessment (Technical Expert)

* Has appeared for 10 consecutive series in “Good Morning Malaysia RTM TV1’ Corporate Talk Segment discussing on ISO 9000/14000 in various industries. For ICT, his inputs garnered from his expertise have successfully led to development of work-process e-enabling systems in the environments of intranet, portal and interactive web design especially for the construction and manufacturing. Some of the end products have won various competitions of innovativeness, quality, continual-improvements and construction industry award at national level. He has also in advisory capacity – involved in development and moderation of websites, portals and e-profiles for mainly corporate and private sectors, public figures etc. He is also one of the recipients for MOSTE Innovation for RFID use in Electronic Toll Collection in Malaysia.

Note :


TO SEE ALL ARTICLES

ON THE"LABEL" SECTION BELOW (RIGHT SIDE COLUMN), YOU CAN CLICK ON ANY TAG - TO READ ALL ARTICLES ACCORDING TO ITS CATEGORY (E.G. LABEL : CONSTRUCTION) OR GO TO THE VERY END OF THIS BLOG AND CLICK "Older Posts"


 

Showing posts with label GOLDMAN SACHS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GOLDMAN SACHS. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

AI vs. Human: Redefining Work, Not Replacing It - A Wake-Up Call for Every Generation - By Nik Zafri

 



With how fast AI and robotics are moving, it's no surprise that a lot of people are worried especially about the risk of losing their jobs someday. Well, I don’t blame them. I feel that the need to study the current situation is very important by looking at the right data.

The adoption of AI and robotics no doubt IS making many operations faster, cheaper, and more efficient but it is also reshaping (not just reducing) human employment, not eliminating it entirely. Let’s break it down, shall we?



WHERE HUMAN STILL FITS IN

Employment isn't disappearing, it's evolving


AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY EXAMPLES

Since 2017, Ford Motor Company has heavily automated its factories with robotic arms and AI, reducing 12% of line worker jobs. But Ford also hired 8% more engineers, software developers, and robot maintenance specialists.

While Tesla Motors Ltd uses 10,000+ robots at its Gigafactories, it still employs 127,000 humans globally (as of 2024), growing by 15% year-on-year because human design, supervision, creative problem-solving, and innovation can't be fully automated.

SKILLS OF THE FUTURE??



Old World = Humans = manual, repetitive, predictable jobs.

New World = Humans = creative, strategic, empathetic, supervisory, and technical roles.

Machines = repetitive, dangerous, analytical, precision roles.

AI and robotics will cause a reduction in traditional jobs. However, they will create new jobs requiring higher cognitive skills, technical expertise, and creativity. Employment doesn't vanish, it migrates.

AI/ROBOTICS MIGRATION TO HIGHER-SKILLED JOBS

When AI and robots take over basic or repetitive work, humans are pushed "up the value chain" into roles that need more thinking, judgment, and creativity.



Example: Amazon is automating warehouse picking, but it hires more robot maintenance staff, AI logistics optimizers, and human warehouse flow planners now.

IMPACT ON TRADITIONAL MANAGEMENT POSITION

AI and automation are also changing; not removing; traditional management jobs.




Administration, Finance, HR, Legal, even Management are not dying but evolving into strategy, design, interpretation, and leadership based on insights provided by AI.

Humans are still needed at "the judgment level" and to navigate emotions, uncertainty, and innovation, where machines are still weak..

OTHER SECTORS






Architecture is becoming one of the most exciting "human-tech fusion" fields. The combination of VR (Virtual Reality), AR (Augmented Reality), MR (Mixed Reality), and AI (Artificial Intelligence) is revolutionizing design, collaboration, and client experience.


REAL-WORLD CASES

 1. AI-Generated Designs + VR Review

Tools like Spacemaker (now Autodesk Forma) use AI to create multiple design options (sunlight, wind, density).

Designers then use VR to walk through those spaces before a single brick is laid.

2. AR Site Integration

Imagine holding an iPad on-site and seeing the future building overlaid on the empty land.

AI integrates building data with real-time environment, helping contractors plan sequences, identify clashes.

3. MR for Client Collaboration

Client wears a headset (like Microsoft HoloLens), walks through a partially constructed home.

Interact with the design - change kitchen layout, try wall textures.

AI adapts the design instantly based on choices, and updates BIM (Building Information Modeling) in the background.

SO WHAT?

Architects will need to be:
  • Fluent in tools like Twinmotion, Enscape, Unreal Engine, Unity (for VR/AR)
  • Able to guide AI-assisted design tools
  • Great storytellers, turning data and 3D models into client-friendly experiences.

THE FUTURE (5-10 YEARS?)

Clients won’t review 2D plans anymore, they’ll expect immersive, interactive design presentations.

AI will co-design with you, and immersive tech will be the bridge between your vision and the client’s understanding.

Construction coordination (with engineers, MEP, contractors) will happen in shared MR environments, not long WhatsApp threads.
 

PROBLEM 1 –  EDUCATION

The education system and government policies maybe outdated compared to technology growth.

Universities and colleges are still teaching for the Industrial Age, but we are living in the AI Age.
  • Graduates are learning theories, but companies now want:
  • Technical agility (basic coding, data handling)
  • Digital literacy (use AI tools, not build them necessarily)
  • Adaptability and self-learning skills.

Result:
  • Many graduates can't get jobs.
  • Many available jobs require skills they weren’t taught.
Overall human employment will be lower in many traditional fields because AI and robotics automate faster than humans can retrain.


HOW TO FIX THIS?


Learn practical digital skills NOW 
  • Self-learning using free/cheap online platforms  - (eg. Coursera , EdX , LinkedIn for Learning , even YouTube )
  • Basic AI use (not building, but operating tools)
  • Data basics (Excel, Python , Power BI )
  • Communication, emotional intelligence.
Develop a side skill or freelance capability

Graphic design, coding, digital marketing, copywriting - platforms like Fiverr, Upwork are growing

Don't rely too much on your qualifications but rather build a portfolio - show proof of what you can do, not just what you studied.


PROBLEM 2 - SEASONED PROFESSIONALS (FROM MID AGE AND ABOVE)


TO BE FAIR - WAKE UP PEOPLE

  • Those who don't adapt will fall behind faster than at any time in modern history.

  • Waiting for "the system" to fix itself is risky.

  • Individuals, families, communities must push for re-skilling urgently otherwise, inequality will explode.





Thursday, July 07, 2011

DERIVATIVES CLEARINGHOUSES

This note is not representing the official views and regulations set by by the authorities related to the bourse or the like. It serves merely as a personal research and quick guide. The interested parties are advised to contact Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Clearing

May 25, 2011
by : Dr. Ben Steil

Thank you for the opportunity to present to you this morning my views on the important subject of derivatives clearing.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers and AIG in September of 2008 highlighted the importance of regulatory reforms that go beyond trying to prevent individual financial institutions from failing. We need reforms that act to make our markets more resilient in the face of such failures – what engineers and risk managers call “safe-fail” approaches to risk management. Well capitalized and regulated central derivatives clearinghouses to track exposures, to net trades and to novate them, to collect proper margin on a timely basis, and to absorb default risk have historically provided the best example of successful “safe-fail” risk management in the derivatives industry.

Compare the collapse of the large hedge fund Amaranth in 2006 with the collapse of AIG in 2008. Both were laid low by derivatives exposures. Yet whereas the failure of Amaranth caused barely a ripple in the markets, owing to its exposures having been in centrally cleared exchange-traded natural gas futures contracts, the failure of AIG precipitated justifiable concerns of widespread market contagion that ultimately required a massive and enormously controversial government intervention and bailout to contain. Had AIG been building derivatives exposures on-exchange rather than in the OTC markets, its reckless speculation would have been brought to a halt much earlier owing to minute-by-minute exposure-tracking in the clearinghouse and unambiguous mark-to-market and margining rules. The long, drawn-out wrangling between AIG and Goldman Sachs over the collateral required to cover AIG’s deteriorating derivatives positions would never have been possible had a clearinghouse stood between the two.

Furthermore, AIG’s net exposures in the marketplace would not have been the subject of rumor or surmise, but a simple matter of record at the clearinghouse.

Encouraging a shift in derivatives trading from OTC markets without central clearing to organized, government-regulated markets with central clearing is challenging, however, for two major reasons.

First, the dealers that dominate the OTC derivatives business have no incentive to accommodate such a shift. Dealers earn approximately $55 billion in annual revenues from OTC derivatives trading. Some of the largest earn up to 16% of their revenues from such trading. The movement of such trading onto exchanges and central clearinghouses has the potential to widen market participation significantly, to increase the transparency of prices, to reduce trading costs through the netting of transactions, and in consequence to reduce the trading profits of the largest dealers materially. It is natural, therefore, that dealers should resist a movement in trading activity onto exchanges and clearinghouses. Where compelled by regulation to accommodate it, dealers can also be expected to take measures to control the structure of, and limit direct access to, the clearing operations. The use of measures such as unnecessarily high capital requirements in order to keep smaller competitors or buy-side institutions from participating directly as clearinghouse members are to be expected.

Indeed, trading infrastructure providers organized as exclusive mutual societies of major banks or dealers have a long history of restricting market access. For example, in the foreign exchange markets, the bank-controlled CLS settlement system has long resisted initiatives by exchanges and other trading service providers to pre-net trades through a third-party clearing system prior to settlement. Such netting would significantly reduce FX trading costs for many market participants, but would also reduce the settlement revenues generated by CLS and reduce the trade intermediation profits of the largest FX dealing banks. Other settlement service providers such as DTCC have no incentive to offer competition to CLS, as they are owned by the very same banks. There are therefore solid grounds for regulators to apply basic antitrust principles to the clearing and settlement businesses in order to ensure that market access is not being unduly restricted by membership or ownership limitations that cannot be justified on safety and soundness grounds.

Second, some types of derivatives contracts do not lend themselves to centralized clearing as well as others. Customized contracts, or contracts which are functionally equivalent to insurance contracts on rare events, are examples. Since it can be difficult for policymakers or regulators to determine definitively whether given contracts - new types of which are being created all the time - are well suited for central clearing, it is appropriate to put in place certain basic trading regulations in the OTC markets that will serve both to make such trading less likely to produce another AIG disaster and to encourage the movement of trading in suitable products onto central clearinghouses. Two such measures would be to apply higher regulatory capital requirements for non-cleared trades, in consequence of the higher counterparty risk implied by such trades, and to mandate trade registration and collateral management by a regulated third party, such as an exchange.

In establishing the regulatory standards for the clearing of derivatives transactions, it is imperative for lawmakers and regulators to be fully conscious of the fact that the derivatives market is effectively international, rather than national, and that it is exceptionally easy for market participants to change the legal domicile of their trading activities with a keystroke or a simple change of trading algorithm. In this regard, I would highlight two important areas of concern.

First, the three major world authorities controlling the structure of the derivatives clearing business – the SEC, the CFTC, and the European Commission – each take a very different view of the matter. Historically, the SEC has applied what I would term the “utility” model to the industry, the CFTC has applied what I would term the “silo” model, and the European Commission has applied what I would term the “spaghetti” model. The broad benefits of each are depicted in the matrix below.



The SEC’s utility model favors institutions operated outside the individual exchanges; in particular the DTCC in the equity markets and the OCC in the options markets. This approach has generally performed well in terms of safety and soundness, and in encouraging competition among exchanges. It performs poorly, however, in terms of encouraging innovation in clearing and settlement services.

The CFTC’s silo model allows the individual exchanges to control their own clearinghouses. This approach has also performed well in terms of safety and soundness. The recent decision of the CME to raise margin requirements on silver trading is evidence of the model working well, in terms of the exchange placing a premium on the integrity and solvency of its clearing operations rather than trying to maximize short-term speculative trading volumes. The CFTC’s model also encourages innovation in product development in a way in which the SEC’s model does not. This is because CFTC-regulated futures exchanges can capture the benefits of product innovation in terms of generating trading volumes, whereas SEC-regulated options exchanges risk seeing trading volumes in new products migrate to other exchanges, all of which use clearing services provided by the OCC. The CFTC model, in consequence, does not promote competition from new trading venues in the same way that the SEC model does. It does, however, promote wider direct market participation in clearing systems, as demutualized exchanges have a commercial interest in expanding such access to buy-side institutions that dealers normally want to exclude. This reduces trading costs and expands market liquidity.

The European Commission’s spaghetti model, enshrined in its so-called “Code of Conduct” for the industry, compels the EU’s clearinghouses to interoperate with each other. It also encourages both exchanges and clearinghouses to compete against each other. Like the SEC’s model, however, it can be expected to dampen incentives for product innovation, as clearing competition makes it more difficult for exchanges that own clearinghouses to maximize their trading and clearing revenue returns on new product development. More importantly, this model, I believe, is not conducive to ensuring safety and soundness, as it encourages clearinghouses to cut margin requirements and other prudential measures as a way to attract business from, or prevent business from moving to, other clearinghouses. It also injects a major element of operational risk into the business, in consequence of each clearinghouse being vulnerable to failures of technology or risk management in others.

On balance, I believe that the CFTC’s model is the most appropriate for the derivatives industry, and I believe that the unworkability of the European Commission’s spaghetti approach will ultimately oblige it to move back in the CFTC’s direction. Although the CFTC’s approach does not promote inter-exchange competition as directly as the SEC’s model, it is important to note that new competitors are, in fact, entering into the futures business. ELX, founded in 2009, and NYPC , a recent joint venture between the NYSE and the DTCC which facilitates cross-margining of multiple products, are now competing with the CME in the financial futures space.

The second point I would like to make regarding the global nature of the derivatives trading industry is that certain measures to curb speculative activity being debated here in Washington are highly likely to push trading activity “off exchange” – precisely the opposite of Congress’s intent. For example, a so-called Tobin Tax on futures transactions at the level being discussed last year, 2 basis points (0.02%), would be equivalent to over 400 times the CME transaction fee on Eurodollar futures. It should go without saying that a tax this large, relative to the current transaction fee on the underlying contract, would push all of this trading off the CME and into alternative jurisdictions.

Likewise, commodity market position limits, if not harmonized with UK and other national authorities, will merely push such trading outside the CFTC’s jurisdiction. There is already an active regulatory arbitrage on oil and natural gas futures between the CME’s Nymex exchange, which trades such contracts under CFTC regulation, and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which trades such contracts under FSA regulation in London. We have seen indications of movement in trading from Nymex to ICE in line with market perceptions of the likelihood of such limits being imposed in the United States. In short, we must be extraordinarily cautious not to undermine Congress’s worthy goal of bringing more derivatives trading under the purview of US-regulated exchanges and clearinghouses by inadvertently providing major market participants incentives to do precisely the opposite.

Thank you for the opportunity to present my views today on this important issue.

Monday, June 09, 2008

This is one of the 'wake-up' call article.

--------------------------------------------------------
The Sun Makin Sens Section - by Tan Siok Choo

East Asia - no longer a follower?

THAT the US appears to be sliding into a recession cannot be denied. What is uncertain is whether East Asia in general, and Malaysia in particular, can avoid following in its wake. While it may be premature to offer a definitive answer to this question, three separate indicators underscore export-dependent East Asia’s growing resilience.

First, a recent article by Bloomberg suggests Japan may escape the recession that appears to be engulfing the US. As one of the world’s largest financial news and data provider notes, since 1970, Japan has followed the US into all five recessions. In 1970, the US accounted for 30% of Japan’s exports. Today, that figure has fallen to only 20%.

Japan’s reduced economic dependence on the US is largely due to the success of manufacturing companies like Toyota in capitalising on buoyant markets, particularly in China and other countries. In the past two years, Japan’s exports to China jumped by 45% while those to Russia doubled.

Additionally, a 5.6% drop in US vehicle sales didn’t stop Toyota’s total unit sales from rising in the first quarter. Furthermore, Toyota is poised to overtake the US-based General Motors as the world’s largest auto company in terms of sales.

Last month, two usually bearish brokers on Japan – Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley – backed off from predictions that the world’s second largest economy will go into a recession this year. The catalyst for both brokers’ changed view was because revised industrial production figures for February showed output rose to a record rather than fell, the Bloomberg article says.

Even though exports could slow down, corporate Japan is now financially stronger than when its stock and property bubble burst in the late 1980s. The average ratio of corporate liabilities to assets has dropped to about 65%, the lowest level since 1955 from about 80% in the mid-1990s, the Merrill Lynch report says.

Moreover, Japanese companies have soaked up excess production capacity. Reduced debt and streamlined production will enhance corporate Japan’s capability to withstand a slump in the US, Bloomberg notes.

Second, the price of oil has continued its inexorable climb to a record high, even though its biggest market appears to be softening. Last in electronic trading last Friday, US crude futures for June delivery hit an intra-day record of US$126.20 (RM403.84) a barrel.

Admittedly, the escalating price of oil this year may be prompted by concern about possible disruptions in continued supply in countries like Nigeria and Venezuela. That prices continue to skyrocket despite sharply declining demand from the US, the world’s largest consumer of oil, is unusual. In February this year, US demand for oil fell to 19.7 million barrels of oil a day, down by one million barrels from last year’s average.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says oil use worldwide will increase 2% this year because of growing demand in emerging markets. For the first time this year, emerging markets will consume more crude oil than the US, the IEA notes. Emerging markets will consume 20.67 million barrels of oil a day, an increase of 4.4%. In contrast, demand in the US will contract by 2% to 20.38 million barrels daily.

"The US recession will be a footnote as far as the oil market is concerned. Supply isn’t growing and demand is growing robustly in the developing world," says Jeffrey Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets in Toronto who has correctly forecast higher oil prices since 2000.

Third, shipments of personal computers (PC) grew at a double-digit pace worldwide in the first quarter despite anaemic growth in the US, technology research firm, IDC says. Indeed, global figures for the first quarter exceeded its forecast.

Although growth in US sales slowed to around 3%, overseas gains boosted global first quarter PC shipments 14.6%, IDC notes. That’s because the US accounted for 23% of global shipments in the first quarter compared with 25% a year ago.

"Even if there is a particularly bad US market, it is becoming a smaller piece of the global puzzle," IDC vice-president Bob O’Donnell points out.

Despite these positive indicators, East Asia’s growing resilience cannot be equated with total independence from the US economy.

For a start, if the US economy is in recession, it may take months before the impact is transmitted to East Asia. Additionally, in an increasingly interlinked global economy – particularly in financial markets – it is inconceivable that what happens in the US can be ring-fenced from other emerging economies.

But if the inconceivable does happen – if the US sinks into recession and if East Asia succeeds in decoupling from the world’s largest economy – then a new era in global economic history may have begun.