PASARAN MERUDUM - APA YANG PERLU DILAKUKAN - Nik Zafri

Penafian : Diminta tidak menggunakan sebarang hasil tulisan saya termasuk yang berikut sebagai satu keputusan untuk melabur. Ianya sekadar panduan. Dapatkan nasihat dari pakar.

Kita melihat pasaran saham menjunam selepas PRU 14. Di sinilah ujian kepada pelabur terutamanya reaksi emosi terhadap pasaran.

Saya bukannya pelabur yang hebat tetapi berdasarkan pengalaman, suka saya menegur sikap tipikal para pelabur Malaysia :

Saya lihat pelabur suka menandaras saham pegangan mereka kepada harga belian dan harga jualan. Pada saya, sepatutnya apabila berlaku kejatuhan, kita perlu melihat banyak aspek, bukan terus melakukan jualan besar-besaran dan menanti pasaran pulih kembali.

Antara aspek yang perlu kita perhatikan ialah siapa "loosers" dan industri manakah yang sebenarnya mengalami penyusutan... Jika pelabur membeli saham yang tidak berkaitan dengan syarikat yang jatuh harga sahamnya, kekalkan dahulu pegangan, jangan jual walaupun kita lihat harga saham yang kita beli itu juga mengalami sedikit penurunan (kerana penurunan ini sebenarnya bersabit dengan "psikologi" pasaran bukan menandakan ekonomi akan hancur)

Lihat dahulu pengumuman syarikat yang pelabur beli sahamnya itu, dapatkan maklumat/risikan dari sumber yang betul, atau tidak salah jika kita melawat syarikat berkenaan untuk mendapat penjelasan dan nasihat.

Apa yang perlu dilihat ialah : adakah :

a) pendapatan mereka menyusut atau masih berjalan seperti biasa,

b) adakah terdapat sebarang tanda negatif dalam penyata imbangan mereka - rujuk nota pada akaun mereka atau

c) ianya adalah isu urustadbir korporat yang tidak telus

Jangan terpengaruh dengan khabar angin walaupun disokong dengan fakta/hujjah yang tidak jelas. Pelabur sendiri perlu membuat analisa ke atas data berkenaan sebelum membuat keputusan. Kadangkala ada segelintir broker pandai memberikan alasan, kononnya, harga saham "x" akan jatuh, lalu pelabur pun mudah percaya dan mengikut pendapat (yang sebenarnya) spekulasi untuk mempengaruhi psikologi pelabur dan menguntungkan “si spekulator"

Jika pelabur panik, mungkin pelabur akan mengambil tindakan kurang rasional seperti membeli kuantiti saham pada kaunter lain dalam jumlah yang lebih banyak untuk menutup kerugian kita.

Saya pernah menyatakan bahawa : Pasaran Saham adalah ibarat perniagaan – begitu juga dengan FOREX, ianya mempunyai potensi keuntungan atau risiko kerugian. Jika pelabur hanya inginkan keuntungan semata-mata dan tidak dapat menerima kerugian, maka pelaburan kita sudah menjadi satu PERJUDIAN.

Malaysia masih memiliki pelbagai "kusyen" (minyak dan komoditi dll) apabila pasaran saham mahupun kewangan menampakkan kejatuhan kerana Malaysia mempunyai pengalaman yang luas dalam mengendalikan masalah ekonomi. Malah dengan menghapuskan GST dan tidak terus mempraktikkan SST dalam tempoh yang agak lama akan meninggikan kuasa belian (ianya untuk kita rakyat sebenarnya)

Ada pelabur beranggapan bahawa mereka perlu membeli saham yang diniagakan dengan rendah minggu ke 52 - dakwa mereka ianya adalah satu pelaburan yang baik. Pelabur tidak sedar kadangkala ini hanyalah perangkap nilai (value trap) yang diletakkan dalam "laporan spekulator" yang dihias dengan “data-data yang cantik tetapi amat berbisa”. Ingatlah Pelabur tidak tahu dan tidak mungkin dapat meramalkan dengan tepat betapa eratiknya pasaran ini.

Apabila pelabur membeli tanpa berfikir kerana mengharapkan saham berkenaan akan melambung naik di suatu masa, sebenarnya pelabur telah melakukan silap besar. Memang tidak dinafikan, trend ada menunjukkan apabila pelabur menggunakan kaedah ini, maka ada kemungkinan harga itu akan melambung. Tetapi pada saya, pelabur perlu memeriksa "feasibility" dan "viability" (kebolehupayaan, kebolehlaksanaan) prestasi atau projek syarikat yang pelabur beli sahamnya itu dan bukan mendengar khabar atau sekadar berasa puas hati dengan “order book value”

Ada juga spekulator yang bersembunyi di sebalik "brokerage" yang menyarankan agar kita membuat pertaruhan "leverage". Sememangnya melabur secara marginal dan "leverage" berpotensi untuk memberikan pulangan yang tinggi tetapi ianya juga mempunyai risiko kerugian yang amat besar.

Jika kita tidak pasti dalam suasana ketidaktentuan pasaran, elakkan membuat pelaburan seperti ini. Mengambil "leverage" memerlukan pelaburan yang menguntungkan mengikut kadar faedah pembayaran di atas modal yang dipinjam. Ya, mungkin juga ketidaktentuan dalam pasaran dalam tempoh jangkapendek, cara ini boleh berjaya tetapi pelabur mungkin tidak dapat mengawal perasaan apabila pasaran merudum.

Saya berpendapat, jika membeli berdasarkan margin, ianya akan menghadkan opsyen dan kita mungkin terpaksa menutup posisi kita.

Saya lihat, rata-rata pelabur bijak dalam membuat perancangan kewangan namun kurang pula bijak dalam mengawal perasaan. Ini bererti perancangan kewangan yang diperbuat itu tidak ada "Plan B" iaitu jika berlaku kejatuhan harga, apa yang perlu dilakukan. Sikap ini akan menyebabkan kegagalan dalam mewujudkan koreksi pasaran dalam tempoh jangkapanjang.

Satu lagi kesalahan bagi pelabur kecil ialah mereka menghentikan Pelan Pelaburan Bersistem dalam Dana Ekuiti apabila pasaran merudum. Ini menunjukkan sikap tidak sabar pelabur. Sebenarnya pelaburan dana ekuiti yang bersistem adalah bertujuan melatih disiplin semasa fasa "bearish" dan ianya lebih berbentuk jangkapanjang. Jika kita membatalkan pelaburan di tengah-tengah perjalanan, maka sebenarnya kitalah yang rugi.

Perancangan/pengurusan masa amat mustahak dalam kita melabur dalam dana ekuiti. Ini kerana kita perlu bersabar dalam melihat pada terma-terma perjanjian yang kita tandatangani dan sentiasa bertanya sebelum menandatangani sesuatu perjanjian. Apa yang penting kita lihat antara lain sekurang-kurangnya ialah kemungkinan naik turunnya kadar faedah (serta apakah jaminan syarikat pelaburan berkenaan jika ini berlaku) dan juga tempoh perjanjian (kerana kita dapat menjangka berapakah keuntungan yang kita telah buat dalam masa suku, tengah dan hujung tahun (dikalikan pula dengan tempoh perjanjian)

Kita juga perlu pandai meramal suasana ekonomi dan sistem perbankan dan kewangan tempatan dengan mengambilkira perjalanan/perkembangan ekonomi di seluruh dunia.

Nota/Hint/Isyarat : Pasaran sedang mengalami pembetulan (correction) dari bearish ke bullish. Mudah-mudahan, sejurus sebelum Hari Raya Aidilfitri 2018 dan 2 minggu selepas Hari Raya Aidilfitri, saya menjangka pasaran akan pulih kembali (tanda-tandanya telah ada saya perhatikan)

FDI baru, penyenaraian baru dan potensi pelaburan baru bernilai berbillion ringgit sedang menanti dari dalam dan luar negara. Janganlah dirisaukan sangat.

Jika tidak pasti dengan apa yang saya perkatakan ini, maka tumpukan sahaja masa dan pelaburan kita kepada pelbagai Amanah Saham yang dijamin kerajaan atau Dana Bersama (Mutual Fund) - malah insuran sekalipun - atau menyertai pelaburan dalam bentuk Simpanan Tetap (FD) - ini semua lebih selamat.

IT HAS BEGUN

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The World’s Richest People Lost Another $124 Billion on Monday

The global rout continues 

Tom Metcalf

August 25, 2015 — 6:10 AM MYT

Another $124 billion was wiped off the collective fortunes of the world’s 400 richest people today as the global selloff pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index into its first correction in nearly four years.

Twenty-four billionaires saw their wealth fall by more than ten figures on Monday, including Bill Gates who dropped $3.2 billion and Jeff Bezos, who fell $2.6 billion, according to data compiled by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Mexico's Carlos Slim lost $1.6 billion as his fortune fell to its lowest level since the Index began in 2012.Sliding markets worldwide have resulted in Chinese shares sinking the most since 2007, Germany's DAX falling into a bear market, and commodities reaching a 16-year low, as Brent crude plunged below $45 a barrel.

Last week’s declines had already seen the world’s 400 richest people lose $182 billion. A decline of $76 billion on Friday had put their fortunes into the red for the year-to-date.

The Bloomberg Billionaires Index takes measure of the world’s wealthiest people based on market and economic changes and Bloomberg News reporting. Each net-worth figure is updated every business day at 5:30 p.m. in New York and listed in U.S. dollars.

2.

The Independent - UK

News>Business>Business News>Frontpage

FTSE 100 loses £104 billion in value in one day as China stock slide prompts global selloff

HAZEL SHEFFIELD

Monday 24 August 2015

The FTSE 100 shed £104 billion at its lowest point on Monday, after severe losses in Chinese markets prompted a global sell-off.

Monday’s bloodbath marked the tenth day of consecutive losses on the FTSE 100, the longest straight period of decline since 2003. The index has lost around £218 billion in value in that time.

Many expected the Chinese government to take measures such as cutting interest rates or injecting liquidity to stop further losses after the Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 12 per cent last week. No action prompted further losses of 9 per cent on Monday.

Since August 11, $5 trillion has been been wiped off global markets after China unexpectedly devalued the yuan.

The Dow Jones also plummeted more than 1000 points on opening Monday, before rebounding slightly. The S&P 500, another US stock market index, dropped 99 points, or 5 per cent.

While plunging stock indices were attributed to lack of action in Beijing, Monday’s selloff follows months of poor data. Last week, activity in Chinese factories was shown to have dropped sharply.

Declining commodity prices continue to weigh oil giants. Glencore, Shell and Rio Tinto, which are all listed on the FTSE 100, suffered the worst declines on Monday.

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$10 Trillion Gone UPDATE: Actually It Was More Like $3 Trillion

Matt Vespa | Aug 24, 2015

Editor's Note: It was originally reported that $10 trillion had been erased, but it's been revised to $3 trillion.  The post has been updated.

Monday got off to a disastrous start for the world economy.

The Dow Jones plunged 1000 points–or 6.5 percent–upon the opening bell thanks to the volatile economic situation in China.

As Cortney wrote earlier today, the market recovered roughly half of its losses by the time trading was suspended for the day.

The New York Times compiled the butcher’s bill–and it was quite steep. $3 trillion was erased from the global stock market since the June 3 peak, the Chinese Shanghai Index lost all of the gains it has made this year, European stocks dropped 5 percent or more, and the U.S. S&P 500 closed four percent down.

At the same time, many analysts knew a recalibration of our bull market bearings was due. Right now, all eyes are on government policy:

“Everything is going to be dictated by government policy,” said Kevin Kelly, the chief investment officer of Recon Capital Partners.

“Whatever noise is coming from policy makers is going to determine the next couple weeks."

”The conversation about government policy is playing into a broader debate about the global economy’s ability to continue growing without the sort of extraordinary stimulus that has become the norm in recent years."

Investors’ worries over China’s economic slowdown and a souring view of emerging economies have rattled financial markets around the world in recent days, and showed no signs of letting up. 

“There was a huge amount of negative sentiment built in this morning,” said Dan Greenhaus, the chief global strategist at BTIG.

Many analysts have said that a correction to stock market valuations was overdue after a long bull market. And it is too early to say how the financial market slump will affect the underlying global economy where goods and services are actually produced and consumed.

Many of the world’s central bankers will have a chance later this week to compare notes and discuss whether new policy steps are needed when they gather, along with finance ministers and academics, in Jackson Hole, Wyo., for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual conference.

The lack of coverage about China’s economic woes is due to the fact that Tom Brady’s deflated footballs were deemed much more newsworthy. After analyzing a month’s worth of broadcasts, the Media Research Center discovered that “deflategate” received five times more coverage on the Big Three–ABC, NBC, and CBS, than China’s struggling economy:

In a month of coverage, from July 18 to Aug. 18, China’s economic situation was discussed for just 3 minutes and 11 seconds on the network evening news programs.

That coverage was entirely on CBS and ABC and even included a political story about Donald Trump that made a passing mention of China’s currency devaluation.

In contrast, ABC, CBS and NBC spent 18 minutes and 21 seconds on Brady’s appeal and courtroom appearances: more than five times more.China devalued its currency, called the Yuan, in what ABC World News Tonight with David Muir referred to as “a surprise move” on Aug. 11.

That send the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 200 points that day. The entire story was a mere 11 seconds long.

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The Independent - UK

TUESDAY 25 AUGUST 2015

News>UK>UK Politics Frontpage

Stock up on canned food for stock market crash, warns former Gordon Brown adviser

JON STONE Monday 24 August 2015

A former adviser to Gordon Brown has urged people to stock up on canned goods and bottled water as stock markets around the world slide.

Damian McBride appeared to suggest that the stock market dip could lead to civil disorder or other situations where it would be unreasonable for someone to leave the house.

“Advice on the looming crash, No.1: get hard cash in a safe place now; don't assume banks  and cashpoints will be open, or bank cards will work,” he tweeted.

“Crash advice No.2: do you have enough bottled water, tinned goods & other essentials at home to live a month indoors? If not, get shopping.

“Crash advice No.3: agree a rally point with your loved ones in case transport and communication gets cut off; somewhere you can all head to.”

Mr McBride credited his former boss Gordon Brown with preventing a cataclysm by nationalising the banking system during the 2008 crash.

“We were close enough in 2008 (if the bank bailout hadn't worked),” he said. “and what's coming is on 20 times that scale”.

Financial markets are unstable and periodically suffer crises which can have devastating consequences for the wider economy.

China's "Black Monday" has plunged the global financial markets into chaos.

The Shanghai Composite Index, China’s most important stock market index, was down 8.45 per cent, erasing a year’s gains in a day’s trading.

The FTSE100 fell 4.5 per cent, hoping £60bn off the price of UK shares, and the Dow Jones in the US fell by over a thousand points in its first minute of trading.

Some analysts have suggested that the stock market slide could be the start of a new global financial crisis.Mr McBride’s suggestions about stocking up on canned goods, setting rally points and stocking up on bottled water were ridiculed by some users on Twitter as over the top, however.

Mr McBride was special adviser to Gordon Brown and head of communications at the Treasury for a period during the last Labour government. 

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A blog about business and economics.

Aug. 24 2015 9:59 AM

China’s Stock Market Is Melting Down—and It’s Taking Markets Everywhere With It

By Alison Griswold

Friday was a rout in the stock markets; Monday is already looking worse. The Shanghai Composite index tumbled 8.5 percent—erasing the last of its gains for the year in its biggest single-day loss since 2007. European stocks have plunged nearly 5 percent. U.S. stocks nosedived at the opening bell:

The S&P 500 fell 99.1 points or 5.03 percent, the Dow sank 991 points or 6.02 percent, and the Nasdaq pitched 335 points or 7.12 percent. There is only one word for all of this, and it is yikes. Brent crude, the benchmark for oil prices worldwide, is trading below $45 a barrel for the first time in six years. Even gold, so often a “safe haven” commodity that investors pour money into during periods of economic uncertainty, is being weighed down

Despite climbing all spring, the Shanghai Composite has now erased its gains for the year. (Yahoo Finance)

What’s behind the apparent panic in the global economy?

Mostly China.

Over the past two weeks, China’s currency fell in value more than it did in the previous two decades. On top of that, all the recent economic data coming out of China seems to fundamentally contradict official reports of the country being on track for 7 percent growth. Investors and analysts have long questioned the accuracy of economic statistics produced by the Chinese government, so seeing those figures can’t have been entirely surprising.

But it’s only recently become clear how big the gap between official reports and China’s economic reality might be. And the bigger that gap, the greater the ramifications could be worldwide. In recent years, China has accounted for up to half of global growth, though it makes up just 15 percent of global output.

Per the Wall Street Journal, China is looking into stimulus measures:

The expected move to free up more funds for lending—by reducing the deposits banks must hold in reserve—is directly aimed at countering the effects of a weaker currency, which could send more funds away from Beijing’s shores.

The moves reflect an economy increasingly failing to cooperate with Chinese leaders’ playbook to control the world’s No. 2 economy.The Journal says this could happen by the end of August or in early September, most likely via a half-percentage-point reduction in reserve-requirement ratios for banks.

Another possibility is to just loosen the reserve requirements for banks that lend primarily to small and private businesses. China’s entrepreneurs have been stifled by the risk-averse tactics of many banks, which prefer to lend to state-owned companies than private, potentially higher-growth enterprises.

Theoretically, stimulating that kind of private-sector growth would be better for China in the long run than falling back on exports, its traditional economic mainstay. (The leading theory for why China’s central bank devalued the yuan is that it was trying to prop up exports.)

At the same time, as the Journal notes, these new “would-be drivers of the economy—high technology and entrepreneurship—aren’t filling the gap quickly enough.” In the meantime, expect a lot of turbulence in the global markets.Alison Griswold is a Slate staff writer covering business and economics.

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AUGUST 22, 2015 9:00 PM  

ECONOMY GLOBAL INSECURITY (Bloomberg)

The world’s 400 richest people lost $182 billion this week from their collective fortunes as weak manufacturing data from China and a rout in commodities sent global markets plunging.

The weekly drop for the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a group that includes Warren Buffett and Glencore Plc’s Ivan Glasenberg, was the biggest since tracking of the expanded list began in September 2014. The combined net worth of the index members fell by $76 billion on Friday alone, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of U.S. stocks ended its worst week since 2011.

“For them that’s a fractional percentage, even though $182 billion is a big number,” said John Collins, director of investment advisory at Aspiriant, which oversees more than $8 billion for high net worth clients. “A week like this feels really bad, but when you take a step back, in a big picture view it’s not a disaster by any means.”

Friday’s losses put the world’s richest 400 into the red for the year to date. They’re now down $74 billion in 2015, with a collective net worth of $3.98 trillion.

The week’s largest setback in dollar terms was experienced by Buffett, who saw his fortune drop by $3.6 billion as Berkshire Hathaway Inc. slipped more than 5 percent. The investor is the world’s third-wealthiest person, with a fortune of $63.4 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The slump in oil, which had its longest weekly losing streak since 1986 amid signs of an extended supply glut, contributed to $15.2 billion in losses for the world’s wealthiest energy billionaires. Continental Resources Inc. Chairman Harold Hamm saw $895 million, or 9 percent of his net worth, vanish this week.

Glencore’s Glasenberg

Glasenberg, chief executive officer of mining company Glencore Plc, lost $237 million during the week as commodity prices slid to their lowest levels in 13 years. Glencore reached a record low in London on Friday, down more than 8 percent from a week earlier, after the trading house reported its profit sank 56 percent in the first half of the year. Glasenberg’s fortune has decreased more than 40 percent in 2015, to $3.1 billion.

China’s 26 wealthiest people, pummeled by Hong Kong’s bear market and a weaker yen, lost $18.8 billion during the week. Wang Jianlin of Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co. was hit hardest, losing $3.5 billion.

Eleven billionaires added to their fortunes in spite of the market turmoil. The week’s biggest dollar gainer was Sun Pharmaceuticals’ Dilip Shanghvi. The world’s 39th-richest person became $467 million wealthier, elevating his net worth to $18.9 billion.

The Bloomberg Billionaires Index takes measure of the world’s wealthiest people based on market and economic changes and Bloomberg News reporting. Each net-worth figure is updated every business day at 5:30 p.m. in New York and listed in U.S. dollars.

MY COMMENTS ON MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW - NIK ZAFRI

(Commenting on one of the research published in MIT Sloan - Designing Effective Knowledge Networks)

The article is a nice complement to modules of Hi-Impact Network that I’m currently conducting. I hope that everyone in the Artificial Intelligence industry should be reading this article. It a true representation of state of the art combination of ‘management and technical’.

But the part where :

“We found that good leaders were role models, inspiring members to act, and they did not delegate work such as being online and responding to discussions. They were routinely visible — as a cohesive team — to the community”

Sounds ‘a lil bit’ rethorical (and yes, good leaders do all that)

Unfortunately I still see leaders thinking like typical managers -yet ‘hijacking’ the word leader. More system than functional.

This conventional approach is now loosing its glory as it tends to create fear rather than respect. Even when this ‘leader’ is visible, it looks like ‘checking, inspecting and auditing’ when making rounds. The ‘visibility’ is too frequent which may be misinterpreted as a signal of mistrust.

Tabulation Source - projectmanagerpad.com 

Anyway this is a very scholarly yet practical article/research.

Congratulations.

Nik Zafri

--------------------------------------------

Source : thegipster.blogspot.com

Not many decades ago, Supply and demand is perhaps one of the most fundamental concepts of economics and it is the backbone of a market economy.

But when you really analyze it (I mean really…), you’ll find that there is never an accurate equilibrium in the curves of supply and demand.

This is because, the scenario depends mostly on what type of products and services that you’re selling. If you talk about controlled items, then you can easily relate to controlled raw materials.

Now, here you can’t use the conventional supply and demand as it won’t work!

What should be highlighted is about Knowledge-Based Economy and total reduction of Productivity-Based Economy.

Now, quoting Peter Drucker Chapter 12 in his book The Age of Discontinuity – (which he has said this quite some time ago – the idea of “scientific management” developed by Taylor/Mashlup.

There is; on the other hand; productivity but it is recommended not to be mixed up together as the sole indicator for supply and demand.

There is a lot of justifications needed (which require true factual knowledge and information) to be made even in the laymen term rather than depending merely on the curves.

Thus, the information age will be ready to go for the next wave, Rules, practices needed rewriting in an interconnected, globalized economy where knowledge resources such as trade secrets and expertise are as critical as other economic resources.

Nik Zafri Abdul Majid

Kawalan Emosi dan Psikologi Pelabur dalam Meramal Pasaran Saham – NIK ZAFRI

Nota/Penafian : Artikel ini adalah pendapat peribadi penulis sebagai berkongsi pengalaman kembali (setelah jatuh) membuat pelaburan di pasaran saham.

Kita sering melihat rancangan, segmen berita, wawancara dan lain-lain yang memaparkan perangkaan yang menunjukkan pembetulan dalam pasaran (market correction) tetapi adakah ini satu perkara yang penting perlu kita ketahui?

Saya melihat perubahan mendadak dalam cara kebanyakan penganalisa atau peramal pasaran mencuba sedaya-upaya untuk meramal pasaran saham. Apabila saya meneliti setiap komen, analisa, ramalan yang diberikan – kebanyakannya (bukan semua) – tidak pasti dan sifat ‘playsafe’ atau ‘tunggu dan lihat’ – menjadikan semua pendapat yang diberikan hanyalah teori semata-mata.

Izinkan saya berkongsi sedikit pandangan holistik saya mengenai pasaran saham dan kenapa saya bertanggapan bahawa percubaan untuk meramal pergerakan pasaran saham kadangkala membazir masa dan sumber.

Pertama – kenaikan dan penurunan pasaran saham. Ini kerana pasaran adalah di mana ‘pembeli dan ‘penjual’ bergabung.  Apabila terdapat ramai ‘penjual’ dari ‘pembeli’, maka harga akan turun.  (apabila 'pembeli' ramai dari 'penjual', maka harga saham akan melambung tinggi)

Sebabnya : Dari pengalaman saya sendiri, saya melihat, kadangkala pelabur lebih dipengaruhi perasaan berbanding dengan logik. Apabila bertindak mengikut perasaan, maka pasaran akan menjadi tidak stabil. Maka sebarang ramalan akan menjadi buntu. Sebaliknya jika pelabur bertindak secara logik, maka pasaran juga berpotensi menjadi stabil.

Kedua - Menghabiskan masa terlalu lama di hadapan skrin untuk meramal pergerakan pasaran saham kadang-kadang boleh dianggap sebagai ‘membazir masa’. Adalah lebih baik, kita tumpukan 80% dari masa berkenaan dengan membaca bahan-bahan yang menambahkan pengetahuan pelaburan dan 20% diberikan terhadap skrin.

Ketiga - Pelabur berpengalaman akan tahu bahawa trend sering menunjukkan bahawa bulan Ogos, September (terutamanya September) atau Oktober, akan berlaku sesuatu yang mampu mengubah pergerakan saham, antara lain ialah : 

• Peperangan (terutamanya peperangan yang berlaku secara mengejut)
• kesan asimetrik yang berasal dari luar negara (negara yang dipanggil ‘negara maju’) yang mengalami hutang negara yang sangat besar atau kadar faedah Rizab Persekutuan menjadi terlalu tinggi)
• kadar pengangguran yang sangat tinggi (tandanya : apabila pembayaran gratuiti atau bonus pada 2-3 bulan sebelumnya ‘terlalu tinggi’)
• kenaikan sumber tenaga secara mendadak, seperti petroleum dan diesel (minyak mentah termasuk minyak tanah) - apa yang ganjil ialah fenomena ini diikuti dengan kenaikan bahanapi yang lain seperti arangbatu, hidro dll TERMASUK alternatif seperti minyak sawit dan tenaga solar (saya pun hairan kenapa? - tetapi saya seperti bersedia untuk menghadapi suasana berkenaan)
• kenaikan harga barang makanan secara tiba-tiba, (tidak semestinya kenaikan barangan terkawal seperti gula dan minyak masak sahaja)
• kenaikan kos sara hidup (Contohnya kenaikan nilai hartanah selaras dengan kedatangan pelabur asing)
• nilai projek contohnya pembinaan yang dijalankan terlalu tinggi dari kebiasaan (mungkin pelabur terkejut, jika saya katakan bahawa, nilai projek yang tinggi BUKAN disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga bahan binaan tetapi kerana faktor dalaman seperti pembaziran, kerosakan yang tinggi tanpa kawalan, kemalangan di tempat kerja dan juga rasuah!)

Dan banyak lagi tanda-tanda lain – ada juga trend yang berlaku secara domestik (dalam negara) dan bukan berasal di peringkat antarabangsa.

Hal-hal yang disebutkan di atas juga menyebabkan pasaran menjadi ‘volatile’. Maka pelabur kadangkala banyak bergantung kepada maklumat dalam internet dan tidak lagi memeriksa kesahihan maklumat berkenaan. 

Kadangkala ada maklumat yang bermotifkan spekulasi untuk memanipulasikan psikologi pelabur bagi menjual atau membeli (berawaslah)

Pendekata, tidak ada sebarang pelaburan yang boleh dikategorikan sebagai ‘sempurna’.  Ianya bergantung kepada proses dan kebarangkalian.

Sebenarnya, salah satu faktor kejayaan saya sendiri (secara peribadi) ialah semua sumber yang pernah saya pelajari atau rujuk perlu digabungkan dengan pengalaman saya sendiri. Dengan kata lain, saya sendiri mencipta teknik pelaburan yang tersendiri dan tidak terlalu bergantung kepada bahan-bahan yang ‘bersepah’ di internet atau mengharapkan analisa dan ramalan pasaran pakar.

Apa yang penting kepada saya ialah meninggikan kebarangkalian untuk mengambil tindakan yang betul (kerana saya juga tidak kebal dari melakukan kesilapan). Tindakan yang betul ‘berulangkali’ akan meninggikan lagi kebarangkalian untuk saya meraih keuntungan berbanding berulangkali tindakan yang silap akan meninggikan kebarangkalian saya mengalami kerugian yang besar.

Jika diperhatikan betul-betul, semuanya bergerak dalam satu kitaran. Ada yang naik dan ada yang turun (begitulah sebaliknya)

Setiap kali adanya ‘bullish’, maka ianya akan diikuti dengan ‘bearish’. Begitulah sebaliknya.

Setiap kali berlakunya pembetulan (correction), maka akan datang pemulihan (recovery)

Walaubagaimanapun, bukan perkara yang senang untuk meramal dan mengawal pasaran saham. Ramai yang kecewa apabila perkara ini berlaku.

Tetapi yang pasti, pasaran saham adalah peluang keemasan untuk menjana pendapatan sekiranya pelabur menggunakan teknik dan strategi pelaburan yang ‘matang’ (persediaan untuk ‘untung dan rugi’ dalam pelaburan)

Jangan terlalu beranggapan bahawa pasaran saham merupakan cara ‘rahsia’ untuk menjadikan anda seorang yang kaya kerana ‘cita-cita’ itu kadangkala akan menjadi ‘illusi’ dan anda pasti kecewa melihat hasilnya. Jika anda beranggapan begini, maka anda juga menjadikan diri anda sebagai ‘spekulator’ dan anda setaraf dengan mereka yang berjudi atau menikam loteri.

Pasaran saham bukan tempat spekulasi atau perjudian – ianya adalah perniagaan yang mempunyai ‘untung dan rugi’ dan bukannya ‘untung’ semata-mata atau ‘rugi semata-mata'

KAJIAN RINGKAS EKONOMI DUNIA 2014 - NIK ZAFRI

KDNK untuk Asia diunjurkan melebihi purata 6.2% pada tahun 2014. Faktor yang mempengaruhi angka ini ialah keadaan tidak menentu di Filipina, India, Indonesia, Thailand dan Taiwan - kemungkinan besar akan disebabkan oleh kekurangan peluang pekerjaan dan jurang pendapatan sebagaimana jangkaan Forum Ekonomi Dunia. 

India diunjurkan akan berhadapan dengan sedikit penurunan ke KDNK 4.7%. Begitu juga dengan Filipina. Kerajaan India bekerja keras untuk mengimbangkan peluang kerja dan pembangunan industri. Di samping itu, Reserve Bank of India telah menurunkan Kadar Kemudahan Piawai Marginal -50 poin asas ke 9%.

Foto Bencana Alam di Filipina (Washington Post)

Walaubagaimanapun India dan Filipina berisiko dilanda bencana alam yang mungkin akan mengganggugugat aktiviti ekonominya.

Diunjurkan ekonomi Singapura dan Korea akan berlaku sedikit peningkatan manakala China, Hong Kong, Vietnam dan Malaysia tidak mengalami apa-apa perubahan yang ketara. 

KDNK Malaysia diunjurkan 5% (Foto : boothopia wordpress)

'Shutdown' di Amerika Syarikat (US) mungkin akan membuka ruang antara Republikan dan Demokrat untuk berbincang kembali mengenai siling hutang negara. Namun Kongres mengambil langkah berjaga-jaga dengan sebarang keputusan. Dijangka kata putus perlu dicapai pada bulan Disember, 2013 atau pada 15 Januari, 2014.

                                                                                    Shutdown di US (Foto : bbc)

Jepun telah mengisytiharkan kenaikan GST ke 3% pada tahun 2014 dan bagi memastikan kestabilan ekonominya, lebih USD50 billion (5 Trillion Yen) pakej rangsangan telah diperuntukkan. Ini termasuklah siri pelepasan cukai dan rumah kos rendah.

Program 'bailout' di Eropah, Sepanyol, Greece dan Ireland berjalan agak lancar. Portugal pula mengumumkan pakej EUR 3.2 billion bagi mencapai sasaran defisit belanjawan bagi memastikan program 'bailout' nya akan berjaya.

Program Bailout (Foto : zerohedge)

China disasarkan akan berkembang KDNKnya hampir atau melebihi 7.8% setahun hasil pelepasan cukai dan pelaburan dalam industri 'railway' 

Global economic power shifting to Asia

Wolfensohn predicts shift in global economy

It's no secret that a massive shift in global economic power is under way from West to East but the question is whether the old developed economies are ready for the consequences of this change.

Former World Bank president, James Wolfensohn, thinks not. He also thinks the time is rapidly approaching where the World Bank's top job should cease to be the exclusive preserve of the United States.

Transcript

JIM MIDDLETON: Your old organisation the World Bank says that China's current economic model is unsustainable in the medium term. How serious a problem for the rest of the world would it be if China's leaders do not engage in the kind of top to bottom liberalisation of their economy envisaged by the World Bank?

JAMES WOLFENSOHN: Well I think what the World Bank is saying is that any period of 40 years growth, which they're projecting between now and 2050, will have some bumps. And I think they're saying that in terms of the remarkable growth that there's been in China in recent years there may be a slowing, there may be an adjustments in terms of housing, there may be an adjustment in terms of the amount of borrowings. 

But I don't think that the World Bank is predicting any great collapse in China. It is just that there will be perhaps a slowing for a few years but they certainly still believe that by 2050 China will be confident 25 per cent of the global economy.

JIM MIDDLETON: The World Bank is worried about certain factors, for instance the notion that China could grow old before it gets wealthy. The fact that in just five years time China's work force will have more retirees than entrants. These factors do point to the need for a pretty substantial structural renovation, even though China has been so successful over the past three decades.

JAMES WOLFENSOHN: I think that China has shown up to now that it can adjust. It's my belief that there are many people in China, particularly in the rural areas, who have come into more industrialised and city areas. The Chinese themselves are just bringing, I think, 350 million people into that particular group. And I think they're looking forward to the creation of a pretty substantial middle class, along with the middle class that will grow in India.

So what you're saying is absolutely correct. The population will age, but it's against a backdrop, of very substantial growth and there is also the possibility of an extension of the work life in China, which is, I think, something that I is likely to happen.

JIM MIDDLETON: The World Bank is arguing the need for liberalisation; that China needs to move to a market economy. Many Chinese, of course, argue that state capitalism has worked very well, especially given the record of free market capitalism in recent years. Why wouldn't state capitalism work for China into the future?

JAMES WOLFENSOHN: Well I think one of the reasons is that many Chinese, and if you go, as I am sure you do, to Shanghai, Beijing, even to many of the other cities in China, very large cities, you will find that the enterprise is occurring from the private sector. It is not occurring just from the government owned corporations.

It is always been true that the Chinese themselves as a people are quite entrepreneurial. They may still call it state capitalism for another 10 or 20 years but for anybody that show knows China they will, I think, comment on the fact that the individual is becoming a more important factor in the country.

JIM MIDDLETON: Broadening the discussion a little bit, you've noted that by mid -century fully 60 per cent of world GDP will come from Asia. What makes you say, though, that the old developed economies are not ready for this shift? 

JAMES WOLFENSOHN: Well, first all, the proposition is that we will do as was done in the early 1800s and before that in 1500, which is that the weight of the economies of the world will shift to Asia.

And I think there's very little doubt that we will have 50 to 60 per cent of the world's GDP in Asia. If that is true, then the rest of us in the more developed or the Western world will have 30 to 40 per cent, because that's the other part of it; along with whatever Africa has and some parts of Latin America. 

So what I think is happening is you're seeing a shift in terms of both population and a shift in terms of initiative and knowledge. The interesting thing to me is that the Chinese and the Indians are studying with huge numbers in the Western universities, in the United States and also, I've been interested to see, very much in Australian universities, so you're quite used to it.

The truth of the matter is that we in the West are doing very little about learning about the East, learning about what happens in China, learning about what is happening in India. And our young people are just not encouraged or maybe not themselves go to study in these part of the world. Certainly people of my age never thought of doing it. And I'm afraid in we're in a transitional period where parents of my age are a bit less - have not encouraged their children to go and do Asian studies. 

I have very little doubt that it will be a necessity over the next 10, 15 years. And it is my hope that Australia could be a leading country in terms of that transition because of its proximity to Asia and frankly the importance of Asia to Australia in term of the economics.

JIM MIDDLETON: Is one of the logical implications of that shift the global economic institutions, the IMF (International Monetary Fund), the World Bank, G20, also need to change to reflect that changing balance of economic power

JAMES WOLFENSOHN: I don't have the slightest doubt that they need to change. They were invented really after World War II. And there's no question that the balance of the shareholding and the traditions of that 50 plus years have certainly served us well. But the world was pretty much the same until the end of the last century, but starting in 2002 we've seen a significant move in terms of share of global income towards Asia.

The international institutions have not yet adjusted for that. And in another 10 years or 15 years or 20 years we will see a totally different ranking in terms of the economic power of both the world and the representation that you need in those international institutions. It certainly cannot, in the long term, be right that a French person should head the International Monetary Fund and an American should head the World Bank. I don't have the slightest doubt that in 10 years time that will be different.

JIM MIDDLETON: Is 10 years too late, though? Is this now a timely moment for leadership of the World Bank to go to a representative of one of the fast growing and increasingly large developing economies?

JAMES WOLFENSOHN: It only stands to reason that an institution which is concerned with development, and where development has taken place and where some of the developing countries have now reached sizeable positions. After all, China is now the second largest economy in the world to the United States ahead of everybody else.

So it wouldn't be surprising if at some moment a Chinese colleague would head the World Bank. It wouldn't be surprising if someone from Latin America or someone from India with global skills would head it. In my judgment, I think that that would be a healthy development. It's already happened in the management level.

And I think it would be - personally I think that at some point if not the next one it would be an important development to see happen.

JIM MIDDLETON: James Wofensohn it's been a pleasure talking to you.

Economic power shifting to Asia from the West?

Today, as much as China is the centre of global manufacturing, India has become the international hub for global service industries. India’s IT and outsourcing exports amount to over US$ 50 billion.

The economic resurgence of China and India has also made way for the emergence of Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan and Vietnam as manufacturing bases. This shift of world economic power back to Asia is highlighted in the ADB Key Indicators (for Asia and the Pacific) for 2010.

Today, the Asia Pacific accounts for 38% of the world economy. Europe comes second and North America third. Within Asia over 67% of the GDP comes from three countries – China, India and Japan. It is predicted that Asia will be the main driver of global growth over the next two decades with a newly-emerging Asian middle class of nearly 1.5 billion.

Since 1980, 400 million Chinese people have transcended poverty lines. By 2030 the Chinese middle class is expected to exceed 600 million. In numbers – this will be the largest middle class in the world; and the world’s third largest consumer market. India will be the fifth largest in the world with 520 million consumers. It is this demographic transformation of 1.5 billion Asian consumers, which will fuel global economic growth.

Inclusive growth

However, China and India to fuel global economic growth need to encourage inclusive growth and oppose all forms of trade protectionism. They need to improve the global monetary system and promote new modes of development.

One of the most significant changes today is the collective rise of emerging countries. The emerging countries have become an important force in global affairs. They are no longer in the backseat of global economic governance.

The emerging economies are now institutional players, rule makers and protectors of interests. Many global issues cannot be solved without the participation and support of emerging economies. Currently, China is the world’s second largest economy. Many predict that China’s GDP will soon surpass the US. An IMF report concluded, that calculated on PPP basis, China’s GDP will overtake that of the United States in 2016.

Some scholars predict that global power is ‘shifting’ from the West to the East. 

However, many analysts believe that there is no need for developed countries to lose sleep over this. Developed countries have for centuries accumulated incredible wealth and social and economic infrastructure, which still give them an advantage in capacity and influence over the East.

On the other hand, while the developing countries’ rapid economic growth has resulted in a more balanced distribution of global economic power, they don’t have much of a say still in global political and economic affairs.

Many emerging/developing countries are still far behind the developed countries in overall capacity, international outreach, institutional building and economic and social growth. Global issues are fundamentally about development. World peace and security cannot be built in the absence of stronger developing countries, smaller South-North gap, fewer living in abject poor and a better world order.

China’s challenges

China is today the largest developing/emerging country; it has had an extraordinary economic rise built foremost on the backs of low priced workers. China is seeing fast urbanisation and going through a rapid modernisation process. However, China’s growth is totally unbalanced. On per capita income they are 90+ in the world.

Based on United Nations standards, there are over 150 million Chinese people living in poverty. To become a true global player, China faces many challenges: In 2010, China’s economy grew by 10.3 percent to almost six trillion US dollars.

Yet, the foundation for development is weak. China has a huge population and frequent natural disasters. There is an increasing gap between the Eastern China and Western China, urban, rural regions and the rich and poor.

China also has an ageing population they need to take care of. China therefore would need to invest big to improve health care, education and housing. In addition the real wages in China have increases over 12% per year from 2000-2009 and this could result in some of the manufacturing jobs shifting to India, Cambodia and Vietnam.

China’s emergence

One of the most popular debates is the possibility that the United States will be joined or even surpassed as a superpower by China. What makes a superpower, and what would it take for China to match the United States? A genuine superpower does not merely have military and political influence, but also must be at the top of the economic, scientific, and cultural pyramids.

The most recent genuine superpower before the United States was the British Empire. Many Europeans like to point out that the EU has a larger economy than the US, but the EU is a collection of 27 countries that does not share a common leader, a common military, or a uniform foreign policy.

No doubt the only realistic candidate for joining the US in superpower status by 2030 is China. Unlike the US, China has a population of over four times the size of the United States, has the fastest growing economy of any large country, has the buying power and is also mastering sophisticated technologies. But to match the US economy by 2030, China would need an economy that matches the US economy in size.

If the US, with an economy of $14.7 trillion in nominal terms, grows only by 3% a year for the next 20 years, it will be $ 27 trillion in 2030. This is a modest assumption for the US.

China, with an economy of $5.88 trillion nominal terms (not in Purchasing Power Parity terms) grows at 8% a year for the next 20 years straight will be around $ 27 trillion in 2030.

China will have to sustain these growth levels for a long period of time (no country, let alone a large one, has grown at more than 8% over such a long period).

In other words, the progress that the US economy would make from 1945 to 2030 (85 years) would have to be achieved by China in just the 20 years from 2010 to 2030. Even then, this is just the total GDP, not per capita GDP, which would still be far to catch up because of China’s huge population, US currently $47,000 and China $4200.

Also, the weak dollar also leads some currency experts to believe/ that the US will lose economic dominance in the next few years. The US dollar comprises a dominant 60%-65% of global currency reserves, even greater share than it had 10 years ago, while the second highest share is that of the Euro (itself the combined currency of 21 separate countries) at just 25%.

So is there no currency that has any chance of overtaking the US, particularly a currency that is associated with a single sovereign nation? The Chinese Yuan represents fewer than 3% of world reserves, and China itself stockpiles US dollars and Euros. Clearly, US dominance in the global currency market is enormous, and very unlikely to lose that edge in the foreseeable future.

Furthermore, unlike the US brands Chinese brands have always been labelled as cheap and obscure quality, and suffer from weaker popularity compared with brands. But the Chinese market is consolidating quickly and has already nurtured some well-known brands in recent years. However, they need combine their image with US factors, to prove their brand competitiveness to domestic consumers and set up high-end brand images.

The US to retain its dominance will however have to manage the debt ceiling (foreign debt $ 13.5 trillion and domestic) and get their private sector that collectively owns over $ 2 trillion to stand up and lead the recovery without depending on fiscal stimulus from Obama.

(The writer is CEO, HR Cornucopia.)