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NIK ZAFRI BIN ABDUL MAJID,
CONSULTANT/TRAINER
Email: nikzafri@yahoo.com, nikzafri@gmail.com
https://nikzafri.wixsite.com/nikzafri

Kelantanese, Alumni of Sultan Ismail College Kelantan (SICA), IT Competency Cert, Certified Written English Professional US. Has participated in many seminars/conferences (local/ international) in the capacity of trainer/lecturer and participant.

Affiliations :- Network Member of Gerson Lehrman Group, Institute of Quality Malaysia, Auditor ISO 9000 IRCAUK, Auditor OHSMS (SIRIM and STS) /EMS ISO 14000 and Construction Quality Assessment System CONQUAS, CIDB (Now BCA) Singapore),

* Possesses almost 30 years of experience/hands-on in the multi-modern management & technical disciplines (systems & methodologies) such as Knowledge Management (Hi-Impact Management/ICT Solutions), Quality (TQM/ISO), Safety Health Environment, Civil & Building (Construction), Manufacturing, Motivation & Team Building, HR, Marketing/Branding, Business Process Reengineering, Economy/Stock Market, Contracts/Project Management, Finance & Banking, etc. He was employed to international bluechips involving in national/international megaprojects such as Balfour Beatty Construction/Knight Piesold & Partners UK, MMI Insurance Group Australia, Hazama Corporation (Hazamagumi) Japan (with Mitsubishi Corporation, JA Jones US, MMCE and Ho-Hup) and Sunway Construction Berhad (The Sunway Group of Companies). Among major projects undertaken : Pergau Hydro Electric Project, KLCC Petronas Twin Towers, LRT Tunnelling, KLIA, Petronas Refineries Melaka, Putrajaya Government Complex, Sistem Lingkaran Lebuhraya Kajang (SILK), Mex Highway, KLIA1, KLIA2 etc. Once serviced SMPD Management Consultants as Associate Consultant cum Lecturer for Diploma in Management, Institute of Supervisory Management UK/SMPD JV. Currently – Associate/Visiting Consultants/Facilitators, Advisors for leading consulting firms (local and international) including project management. To name a few – Noma SWO Consult, Amiosh Resources, Timur West Consultant Sdn. Bhd., TIJ Consultants Group (Malaysia and Singapore) and many others.

* Ex-Resident Weekly Columnist of Utusan Malaysia (1995-1998) and have produced more than 100 articles related to ISO-9000– Management System and Documentation Models, TQM Strategic Management, Occupational Safety and Health (now OHSAS 18000) and Environmental Management Systems ISO 14000. His write-ups/experience has assisted many students/researchers alike in module developments based on competency or academics and completion of many theses. Once commended by the then Chief Secretary to the Government of Malaysia for his diligence in promoting and training the civil services (government sector) based on “Total Quality Management and Quality Management System ISO-9000 in Malaysian Civil Service – Paradigm Shift Scalar for Assessment System”

Among Nik Zafri’s clients : Adabi Consumer Industries Sdn. Bhd, (MRP II, Accounts/Credit Control) The HQ of Royal Customs and Excise Malaysia (ISO 9000), Veterinary Services Dept. Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), The Institution of Engineers Malaysia (Aspects of Project Management – KLCC construction), Corporate HQ of RHB (Peter Drucker's MBO/KRA), NEC Semiconductor - Klang Selangor (Productivity Management), Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia (ISO 9000), State Secretarial Office Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), Hidrological Department KL (ISO 9000), Asahi Kluang Johor(System Audit, Management/Supervisory Development), Tunku Mahmood (2) Primary School Kluang Johor (ISO 9000), Consortium PANZANA (HSSE 3rd Party Audit), Lecturer for Information Technology Training Centre (ITTC) – Authorised Training Center (ATC) – University of Technology Malaysia (UTM) Kluang Branch Johor, Kluang General Hospital Johor (Management/Supervision Development, Office Technology/Administration, ISO 9000 & Construction Management), Kahang Timur Secondary School Johor (ISO 9000), Sultan Abdul Jalil Secondary School Kluang Johor (Islamic Motivation and Team Building), Guocera Tiles Industries Kluang Johor (EMS ISO 14000), MNE Construction (M) Sdn. Bhd. Kota Tinggi Johor (ISO 9000 – Construction), UITM Shah Alam Selangor (Knowledge Management/Knowledge Based Economy /TQM), Telesystem Electronics/Digico Cable(ODM/OEM for Astro – ISO 9000), Sungai Long Industries Sdn. Bhd. (Bina Puri Group) - ISO 9000 Construction), Secura Security Printing Sdn. Bhd,(ISO 9000 – Security Printing) ROTOL AMS Bumi Sdn. Bhd & ROTOL Architectural Services Sdn. Bhd. (ROTOL Group) – ISO 9000 –Architecture, Bond M & E (KL) Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9000 – Construction/M & E), Skyline Telco (M) Sdn. Bhd. (Knowledge Management),Technochase Sdn. Bhd JB (ISO 9000 – Construction), Institut Kefahaman Islam Malaysia (IKIM – ISO 9000 & Internal Audit Refresher), Shinryo/Steamline Consortium (Petronas/OGP Power Co-Generation Plant Melaka – Construction Management and Safety, Health, Environment), Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Negotiation Skills), Association for Retired Intelligence Operatives of Malaysia (Cyber Security – Arpa/NSFUsenet, Cobit, Till, ISO/IEC ISMS 27000 for Law/Enforcement/Military), T.Yamaichi Corp. (M) Sdn. Bhd. (EMS ISO 14000) LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd., (Lean Scoreboard (including a full development of System-Software-Application - MSC Malaysia & Six Sigma) PJZ Marine Services Sdn. Bhd., (Safety Management Systems and Internal Audit based on International Marine Organization Standards) UNITAR/UNTEC (Degree in Accountacy – Career Path/Roadmap) Cobrain Holdings Sdn. Bhd.(Managing Construction Safety & Health), Speaker for International Finance & Management Strategy (Closed Conference), Pembinaan Jaya Zira Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9001:2008-Internal Audit for Construction Industry & Overview of version 2015), Straits Consulting Engineers Sdn. Bhd. (Full Integrated Management System – ISO 9000, OHSAS 18000 (ISO 45000) and EMS ISO 14000 for Civil/Structural/Geotechnical Consulting), Malaysia Management & Science University (MSU – (Managing Business in an Organization), Innoseven Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 MSPR8 – Awareness and Internal Audit (Construction), ISO 9001:2008 and 2015 overview for the Construction Industry), Kemakmuran Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 - Signages/Wayfinding - Project Quality Plan and Construction Method Statement ), Lembaga Tabung Haji - Flood ERP, WNA Consultants - DID/JPS -Flood Risk Assessment and Management Plan - Prelim, Conceptual Design, Interim and Final Report etc., Tunnel Fire Safety - Fire Risk Assessment Report - Design Fire Scenario), Safety, Health and Environmental Management Plans leading construction/property companies/corporations in Malaysia, Timur West Consultant : Business Methodology and System, Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) ISO/IEC 27001:2013 for Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya ISMS/Audit/Risk/ITP Technical Team, MPDT Capital Berhad - ISO 9001: 2015 - Consultancy, Construction, Project Rehabilitation, Desalination (first one in Malaysia to receive certification on trades such as Reverse Osmosis Seawater Desalination and Project Recovery/Rehabilitation)

* Has appeared for 10 consecutive series in “Good Morning Malaysia RTM TV1’ Corporate Talk Segment discussing on ISO 9000/14000 in various industries. For ICT, his inputs garnered from his expertise have successfully led to development of work-process e-enabling systems in the environments of intranet, portal and interactive web design especially for the construction and manufacturing. Some of the end products have won various competitions of innovativeness, quality, continual-improvements and construction industry award at national level. He has also in advisory capacity – involved in development and moderation of websites, portals and e-profiles for mainly corporate and private sectors, public figures etc. He is also one of the recipients for MOSTE Innovation for RFID use in Electronic Toll Collection in Malaysia.

Note :


TO SEE ALL ARTICLES

ON THE"LABEL" SECTION BELOW (RIGHT SIDE COLUMN), YOU CAN CLICK ON ANY TAG - TO READ ALL ARTICLES ACCORDING TO ITS CATEGORY (E.G. LABEL : CONSTRUCTION) OR GO TO THE VERY END OF THIS BLOG AND CLICK "Older Posts"


 

Showing posts with label CURRENCY AND GOLD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CURRENCY AND GOLD. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

IT HAS BEGUN



(1)






The World’s Richest People Lost Another $124 Billion on Monday
The global rout continues 
Tom Metcalf
August 25, 2015 — 6:10 AM MYT


Another $124 billion was wiped off the collective fortunes of the world’s 400 richest people today as the global selloff pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index into its first correction in nearly four years.

Twenty-four billionaires saw their wealth fall by more than ten figures on Monday, including Bill Gates who dropped $3.2 billion and Jeff Bezos, who fell $2.6 billion, according to data compiled by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Mexico's Carlos Slim lost $1.6 billion as his fortune fell to its lowest level since the Index began in 2012.Sliding markets worldwide have resulted in Chinese shares sinking the most since 2007, Germany's DAX falling into a bear market, and commodities reaching a 16-year low, as Brent crude plunged below $45 a barrel.

Last week’s declines had already seen the world’s 400 richest people lose $182 billion. A decline of $76 billion on Friday had put their fortunes into the red for the year-to-date.

The Bloomberg Billionaires Index takes measure of the world’s wealthiest people based on market and economic changes and Bloomberg News reporting. Each net-worth figure is updated every business day at 5:30 p.m. in New York and listed in U.S. dollars.

2.


The Independent - UK

News>Business>Business News>Frontpage




FTSE 100 loses £104 billion in value in one day as China stock slide prompts global selloff
HAZEL SHEFFIELD
Monday 24 August 2015



The FTSE 100 shed £104 billion at its lowest point on Monday, after severe losses in Chinese markets prompted a global sell-off.

Monday’s bloodbath marked the tenth day of consecutive losses on the FTSE 100, the longest straight period of decline since 2003. The index has lost around £218 billion in value in that time.

Many expected the Chinese government to take measures such as cutting interest rates or injecting liquidity to stop further losses after the Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 12 per cent last week. No action prompted further losses of 9 per cent on Monday.




Since August 11, $5 trillion has been been wiped off global markets after China unexpectedly devalued the yuan.

The Dow Jones also plummeted more than 1000 points on opening Monday, before rebounding slightly. The S&P 500, another US stock market index, dropped 99 points, or 5 per cent.

While plunging stock indices were attributed to lack of action in Beijing, Monday’s selloff follows months of poor data. Last week, activity in Chinese factories was shown to have dropped sharply.

Declining commodity prices continue to weigh oil giants. Glencore, Shell and Rio Tinto, which are all listed on the FTSE 100, suffered the worst declines on Monday.

(3) 


$10 Trillion Gone UPDATE: Actually It Was More Like $3 Trillion
Matt Vespa | Aug 24, 2015




Editor's Note: It was originally reported that $10 trillion had been erased, but it's been revised to $3 trillion.  The post has been updated.



Monday got off to a disastrous start for the world economy.

The Dow Jones plunged 1000 points–or 6.5 percent–upon the opening bell thanks to the volatile economic situation in China.

As Cortney wrote earlier today, the market recovered roughly half of its losses by the time trading was suspended for the day.

The New York Times compiled the butcher’s bill–and it was quite steep. $3 trillion was erased from the global stock market since the June 3 peak, the Chinese Shanghai Index lost all of the gains it has made this year, European stocks dropped 5 percent or more, and the U.S. S&P 500 closed four percent down.

At the same time, many analysts knew a recalibration of our bull market bearings was due. Right now, all eyes are on government policy:

“Everything is going to be dictated by government policy,” said Kevin Kelly, the chief investment officer of Recon Capital Partners.

“Whatever noise is coming from policy makers is going to determine the next couple weeks."

”The conversation about government policy is playing into a broader debate about the global economy’s ability to continue growing without the sort of extraordinary stimulus that has become the norm in recent years."

Investors’ worries over China’s economic slowdown and a souring view of emerging economies have rattled financial markets around the world in recent days, and showed no signs of letting up. 

“There was a huge amount of negative sentiment built in this morning,” said Dan Greenhaus, the chief global strategist at BTIG.

Many analysts have said that a correction to stock market valuations was overdue after a long bull market. And it is too early to say how the financial market slump will affect the underlying global economy where goods and services are actually produced and consumed.

Many of the world’s central bankers will have a chance later this week to compare notes and discuss whether new policy steps are needed when they gather, along with finance ministers and academics, in Jackson Hole, Wyo., for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual conference.

The lack of coverage about China’s economic woes is due to the fact that Tom Brady’s deflated footballs were deemed much more newsworthy. After analyzing a month’s worth of broadcasts, the Media Research Center discovered that “deflategate” received five times more coverage on the Big Three–ABC, NBC, and CBS, than China’s struggling economy:

In a month of coverage, from July 18 to Aug. 18, China’s economic situation was discussed for just 3 minutes and 11 seconds on the network evening news programs.

That coverage was entirely on CBS and ABC and even included a political story about Donald Trump that made a passing mention of China’s currency devaluation.

In contrast, ABC, CBS and NBC spent 18 minutes and 21 seconds on Brady’s appeal and courtroom appearances: more than five times more.China devalued its currency, called the Yuan, in what ABC World News Tonight with David Muir referred to as “a surprise move” on Aug. 11.

That send the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 200 points that day. The entire story was a mere 11 seconds long.

(4)



The Independent - UK

TUESDAY 25 AUGUST 2015

News>UK>UK Politics Frontpage

Stock up on canned food for stock market crash, warns former Gordon Brown adviser
JON STONE Monday 24 August 2015


A former adviser to Gordon Brown has urged people to stock up on canned goods and bottled water as stock markets around the world slide.

Damian McBride appeared to suggest that the stock market dip could lead to civil disorder or other situations where it would be unreasonable for someone to leave the house.

“Advice on the looming crash, No.1: get hard cash in a safe place now; don't assume banks  and cashpoints will be open, or bank cards will work,” he tweeted.

“Crash advice No.2: do you have enough bottled water, tinned goods & other essentials at home to live a month indoors? If not, get shopping.

“Crash advice No.3: agree a rally point with your loved ones in case transport and communication gets cut off; somewhere you can all head to.”

Mr McBride credited his former boss Gordon Brown with preventing a cataclysm by nationalising the banking system during the 2008 crash.

“We were close enough in 2008 (if the bank bailout hadn't worked),” he said. “and what's coming is on 20 times that scale”.

Financial markets are unstable and periodically suffer crises which can have devastating consequences for the wider economy.

China's "Black Monday" has plunged the global financial markets into chaos.

The Shanghai Composite Index, China’s most important stock market index, was down 8.45 per cent, erasing a year’s gains in a day’s trading.

The FTSE100 fell 4.5 per cent, hoping £60bn off the price of UK shares, and the Dow Jones in the US fell by over a thousand points in its first minute of trading.

Some analysts have suggested that the stock market slide could be the start of a new global financial crisis.Mr McBride’s suggestions about stocking up on canned goods, setting rally points and stocking up on bottled water were ridiculed by some users on Twitter as over the top, however.

Mr McBride was special adviser to Gordon Brown and head of communications at the Treasury for a period during the last Labour government. 

(5)


A blog about business and economics.

Aug. 24 2015 9:59 AM

China’s Stock Market Is Melting Down—and It’s Taking Markets Everywhere With It
By Alison Griswold

Friday was a rout in the stock markets; Monday is already looking worse. The Shanghai Composite index tumbled 8.5 percent—erasing the last of its gains for the year in its biggest single-day loss since 2007. European stocks have plunged nearly 5 percent. U.S. stocks nosedived at the opening bell:

The S&P 500 fell 99.1 points or 5.03 percent, the Dow sank 991 points or 6.02 percent, and the Nasdaq pitched 335 points or 7.12 percent. There is only one word for all of this, and it is yikes. Brent crude, the benchmark for oil prices worldwide, is trading below $45 a barrel for the first time in six years. Even gold, so often a “safe haven” commodity that investors pour money into during periods of economic uncertainty, is being weighed down


Despite climbing all spring, the Shanghai Composite has now erased its gains for the year. (Yahoo Finance)

What’s behind the apparent panic in the global economy?

Mostly China.

Over the past two weeks, China’s currency fell in value more than it did in the previous two decades. On top of that, all the recent economic data coming out of China seems to fundamentally contradict official reports of the country being on track for 7 percent growth. Investors and analysts have long questioned the accuracy of economic statistics produced by the Chinese government, so seeing those figures can’t have been entirely surprising.

But it’s only recently become clear how big the gap between official reports and China’s economic reality might be. And the bigger that gap, the greater the ramifications could be worldwide. In recent years, China has accounted for up to half of global growth, though it makes up just 15 percent of global output.

Per the Wall Street Journal, China is looking into stimulus measures:

The expected move to free up more funds for lending—by reducing the deposits banks must hold in reserve—is directly aimed at countering the effects of a weaker currency, which could send more funds away from Beijing’s shores.

The moves reflect an economy increasingly failing to cooperate with Chinese leaders’ playbook to control the world’s No. 2 economy.The Journal says this could happen by the end of August or in early September, most likely via a half-percentage-point reduction in reserve-requirement ratios for banks.

Another possibility is to just loosen the reserve requirements for banks that lend primarily to small and private businesses. China’s entrepreneurs have been stifled by the risk-averse tactics of many banks, which prefer to lend to state-owned companies than private, potentially higher-growth enterprises.

Theoretically, stimulating that kind of private-sector growth would be better for China in the long run than falling back on exports, its traditional economic mainstay. (The leading theory for why China’s central bank devalued the yuan is that it was trying to prop up exports.)

At the same time, as the Journal notes, these new “would-be drivers of the economy—high technology and entrepreneurship—aren’t filling the gap quickly enough.” In the meantime, expect a lot of turbulence in the global markets.Alison Griswold is a Slate staff writer covering business and economics.

(6)


AUGUST 22, 2015 9:00 PM  

ECONOMY GLOBAL INSECURITY (Bloomberg)



The world’s 400 richest people lost $182 billion this week from their collective fortunes as weak manufacturing data from China and a rout in commodities sent global markets plunging.

The weekly drop for the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a group that includes Warren Buffett and Glencore Plc’s Ivan Glasenberg, was the biggest since tracking of the expanded list began in September 2014. The combined net worth of the index members fell by $76 billion on Friday alone, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of U.S. stocks ended its worst week since 2011.

“For them that’s a fractional percentage, even though $182 billion is a big number,” said John Collins, director of investment advisory at Aspiriant, which oversees more than $8 billion for high net worth clients. “A week like this feels really bad, but when you take a step back, in a big picture view it’s not a disaster by any means.”

Friday’s losses put the world’s richest 400 into the red for the year to date. They’re now down $74 billion in 2015, with a collective net worth of $3.98 trillion.

The week’s largest setback in dollar terms was experienced by Buffett, who saw his fortune drop by $3.6 billion as Berkshire Hathaway Inc. slipped more than 5 percent. The investor is the world’s third-wealthiest person, with a fortune of $63.4 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The slump in oil, which had its longest weekly losing streak since 1986 amid signs of an extended supply glut, contributed to $15.2 billion in losses for the world’s wealthiest energy billionaires. Continental Resources Inc. Chairman Harold Hamm saw $895 million, or 9 percent of his net worth, vanish this week.

Glencore’s Glasenberg

Glasenberg, chief executive officer of mining company Glencore Plc, lost $237 million during the week as commodity prices slid to their lowest levels in 13 years. Glencore reached a record low in London on Friday, down more than 8 percent from a week earlier, after the trading house reported its profit sank 56 percent in the first half of the year. Glasenberg’s fortune has decreased more than 40 percent in 2015, to $3.1 billion.

China’s 26 wealthiest people, pummeled by Hong Kong’s bear market and a weaker yen, lost $18.8 billion during the week. Wang Jianlin of Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co. was hit hardest, losing $3.5 billion.

Eleven billionaires added to their fortunes in spite of the market turmoil. The week’s biggest dollar gainer was Sun Pharmaceuticals’ Dilip Shanghvi. The world’s 39th-richest person became $467 million wealthier, elevating his net worth to $18.9 billion.

The Bloomberg Billionaires Index takes measure of the world’s wealthiest people based on market and economic changes and Bloomberg News reporting. Each net-worth figure is updated every business day at 5:30 p.m. in New York and listed in U.S. dollars.

Saturday, July 14, 2012

INVESTMENT IN TURBULENT TIMES
(SJ Securities and European Credit Investment Bank Limited)
Bilik Kinabalu - Menara Hap Seng, Jalan P. Ramlee, Kuala Lumpur

- Quickie from Nik Zafri. Please sign up/'like' the 'Knowledge Management (FB) for more information.





Mr. Darren Tan, International Consultant on Precious Metal, Founder iBiz, 2010 recipient of Successful Entrepreneur (Platinum Catgory) & 2011 SME1 Asia Award (Emerging Award) representing European Credit Investment Bank Ltd.

Topic : Investing in Gold and Silver - also touching on investing opportunities - FOREX, Derivatives, Bonds, Futures etc. besides than latest outlook on Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis and Eurozone Crisis

This workshop is part of the Security Commission program to educate the public especially investors




Mr. Peter Lim, Dep. MD of SJ Securities - a very experienced and qualified investment guru
Topic : Investment in the Stock Market also touching on opportunities, capital and economics





My questions to the speakers are :

a) If the influx of foreign currency is too much to any country, is it good to consider pegging - as the pegged regime did provide a strong foundation for accumulating and improving the level of international reserve and balance of trade.

Mr. Peter Lim commented that it is possible to have some form of capital control measures if there is proof of too much influx.




My next question :

b) Why do world stock markets react and behave eratically towards Federal Reserve news, policy even rumours to hike interest rates?

Mr. Peter Lim (assisted by Darren Tan later) said that stock prices and even equity prices respond as they do to monetary policy or interest rates hike are really intriguing. Sometimes monetary policy affects stock values through its effects on real interest rates, expected future dividends, or expected future stock returns. It has something to do with relatively transitory movements in real interest rates induced by surprise policy actions. Mr. Peter Lim also said the scenario is related to inverse 'effects' usually providing the opposite performance to their benchmark.

(But he also stressed that I shouldn't be listening rumours too much)

c) The rest are questions during 'breaks' briefly about FOREX and painting 'rosy pictures' in the company stocks including opportunities of emerging markets. I really like the way Mr. Darren Tan said about how we do not want to loose and only targetting profit. I later told one of the investors that there is no business or accounting without Profit & Loss. There is no such thing as we give assurance to people that we're going to make lots and lots of profit with a warranty of no loss. The same goes to property/REIT, Forex, Stock Market, Gold, Silver etc. It's the balance between up-to-date information (the right source), right timing and the right stocks.

The best part is the conclusion - both Mr. Peter Lim and Darren splendidly prove one important point - you can still make money during 'ups' and 'downs' if you know how to.

Friday, December 17, 2010

SHORT NOTE : COMMODITY PRICE CORRELATION TO OIL, GOLD AND CURRENCY - BY NIK ZAFRI



What is the next move?

This is one of the most important question being asked to me by traders as everyone wants to make money.

"I've attended wealth seminars and attempted my level best to follow everything that has being taught. It works to a certain level but after a while, it's already too late for me to turn back. I made losses later"


I told the traders that making money is easier said than done.

Those who are involved in currency trading need to take into account a lot of things rather than be "sitting at your pc, laptop or any other gadgets and look at the charts" (and 'look like a professional' and hope that passers by looking at you would deem highly of you while you're sitting at Starbucks or some 5 Star Hotel Lobby wearing smartly using free wi-fi facility without buying any refreshments)

Economy still and will play an important role - all rules apply - export, demand and supply, growth, interest rates, GDP etc. Without all these (FX + Economy), then the next step would probably be is - to justify how politics play a role in what we termed as "sentiment".

All sentiments have a justification. Without justification - the sentiment is equivalent to a rumour or turned against you as speculation and irrational hedging.

Understand that commodity can play a big role in the market.

Once you see that a certain currency has a weaker correlation (with commodity price), then put them aside immediately. Don't take any further risk. (in short - don't try to be a hero)

What about Oil and Gold?

Yes, two of the most popular benchmark. Here's the deal :

Fluctuation of Commodity Price = Sudden surge of oil price

Sudden Surge of Oil Price is most likely TEMPORARY (trust me) - yes, at least a year or so, it will plummet back.

Gold hit a high price (again TEMPORARY) = and again hit a low price also in a year or so (every year I see this trend)

Once again the price of commodity; taking into account - global recession; plays a role in understanding the bearish and the bullish situation.

USD and oil are closely related but the correlation tends to break on daily basis - but it becomes stronger in the long run. This however requires patience and no panicking. USD is an inverse trading instrument thus making the 'strangest' thing happening - USD go down, oil price goes up - vice versa.


(Japan)

(I need to point out that whenever oil price skyrocketted will make some countries suffer for example Japan. A fully industrialized nation but depending on the imports for primary energy. Just look at the trading history of USD against Yen - it's important that that oil price 'to fall' to ensure break a certain level to hit lower)


Which Currency correlated with Gold in a harmonious way?



You don't need 3 guesses for that - it's definitely Australian Dollar. (it's not surprising that they are the top 3 gold producers) Australian dollar appreciates as much as the rising of gold prices. New Zealand is getting advantage out of Australia's prosperity and NZ never had much problem exporting its goods. Again seeing the fine commodity trend in Australia, I'm not a bit surprised that they will always be the FIRST to be out of the recession. So again, commodity!


Political Sentiment?

Neutrality and Uncertainty of Politics do play a big role in correlating gold prices and the currency.

Here's my simple formula :

1) A healthy politics (in the eyes of the traders) will usually turn gold as a support a certain currency

2) Unhealthy politics will usually switch the trading of that particular currency to another currency which is backed up by gold during 'healthy politics'.

The only thing that can break this relationship is decoupling (refer 09/2005 when USD decoupled from gold price movements)

Closing

Smart experienced traders tend to switch commodity and currency or vice versa. The earn interest with high margin but taking into account countries having interest rates. Again, I didn't say that there is no risk.

e.g.

3% from e.g. Central Bank
= amount earned subtract 0% rates paid (shorting USD for e.g.)
= 10X leverage (underleveraged rates).
= surge of interest income whenever net of exchange rate changes.

But don't count on this - you will see how dangerous this situation to you when the trade turns against you.



Play safe : Although the effects are slow, commodity prices can still be used as a benchmark on gold, oil and currency market.