GENERASI MUDA- DENGARLAH - PESANAN RINGKAS DARI NIK ZAFRI

 Pada pendapat saya, pada zaman yang serba mencabar ini, setiap rakyat Malaysia memerlukan kelulusan/kelayakan akademik sekurang-kurangnya secara asas untuk bekerja apatah lagi berniaga terutamanya generasi muda.

Jangan terpengaruh dengan kisah-kisah Bill Gates, Zuckerberg atau Elon Musk. Walaupun dikatakan mereka tidak berkelulusan tinggi tetapi mereka telah banyak membuat kajian dan mengambil kursus-kursus tertentu bersabit kemahiran/kompentensi mengenai elektrikal/elektronik, sains komputer, kejuruteraan dll.

Saya sendiri tidak mempunyai kelayakan tinggi (sehingga kini saya menyesal kerana tidak menyambung pelajaran ke peringkat lebih baik) kecuali mempunyai puluhan sijil-sijil kemahiran pelbagai berorientasikan kompetensi, cukup pengalaman bekerja dengan memberanikan diri berkhidmat dengan firma-firma antarabangsa seperti UK, Australia, US dan Jepun demi kemajuan diri.

Saya juga menanam dalam diri saya untuk gemar membaca buku pelbagai sabjek, menyertai kursus, belajar, sanggup menerima kritikan semasa bekerja dan membuat penyelidikan dan pembangunan di samping memberikan ceramah dan latihan di beberapa IPTS dan IPTA selain syarikat-syarikat MNC dan sektor Perkhidmatan Awam - sesetengahnya bertaraf PhD dan MBA.

Zaman saya adalah zaman yang berbeza dengan zaman sekarang - bukan ada PTPTN, tidak banyak IPT Swasta, bukan ada internet, bukan ada "Grab", bukan ada "cashless transaction" dan kemudahan-kemudahan lain - kesukaran-kesukaran inilah menjadikan saya lebih matang dan sanggup menghabiskan duit demi ilmu dan pengalaman.

Mungkin sekarang, generasi terkini tidak melalui kesempitan generasi kami atau generasi terdahulu dari kami - lalu merasakan satu tekanan untuk menimba ilmu dan pengalaman walhal kemudahan sentiasa ada untuk memudahkan kita menjadi masyarakat yang bijak.

Sekarang kita patut bersyukur kerana adanya akses pada internet. Bagi saya, secara peribadi, saya dapat melipatgandakan lagi pengetahuan dan kemahiran dalam bidang yang saya minati.

Saya juga bukan spesi yang fokus kepada satu bidang sahaja, tetapi saya juga membuka hati kepada bidang-bidang lain termasuk teknologi terkini.

My new pandemic book is coming soon - Bill Gates

 

I’ve written a book about how we can make sure the world never suffers through something like COVID-19 again.

By Bill Gates

| 

February 08, 2022  2 minute read

I believe that COVID-19 can be the last pandemic.

I know that might be hard to believe while we’re still trying to get COVID under control. The last two years have caused unbelievable amounts of hardship around the world, and it’s not easy to feel optimistic when you’ve endured the misery that so many people have experienced. But whenever I see the suffering that COVID has created–every time I read about the latest death toll or hear about someone who lost their job or drive by a school that is closed—I can’t help but think: We don’t have to do this again.

This is something I’ve been thinking about for a long time, and COVID has only made it clearer that the world needs to prioritize eliminating pandemics as a threat to humanity. I’ve been following COVID since the early days of the outbreak, working with experts from inside and out of the Gates Foundation who are championing a more equitable response and have been fighting infectious diseases for decades. I’ve learned a lot in the process—both about this pandemic and how we stop the next one—and I want to share what I’ve heard with people. So, I started writing a book about how we can make sure that no one suffers through a pandemic ever again.

The book is called How to Prevent the Next Pandemic. You can read it on May 3, 2022, and it’s being published by Knopf in the U.S. and Penguin Random House internationally.

In the book, I lay out the specific steps we can take to not only stop future pandemics but, in the process, provide better health care for everyone around the world. I outline the lessons we can learn from this pandemic, the innovations we need to save lives, and the new tools we need to stop pathogens early and equitably. I also tell you about my regular conversations with public health leaders like Anthony Fauci and Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, my view of the vaccines that are stemming the tide, and what it’s been like to become the subject of conspiracy theories.

The goal of no more pandemics ever is ambitious, but the progress we’ve made over the last two years—including the huge leaps forward we’ve made with vaccines and the knowledge we’ve gained about respiratory illnesses—has already set us on a path to success. The world now understands how seriously we should take pandemics, and momentum is on our side. No one needs to be convinced that an infectious disease could kill millions of people or shut down the global economy. If we make the right choices and investments, we can make COVID-19 the last pandemic.

IT HAS BEGUN

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The World’s Richest People Lost Another $124 Billion on Monday

The global rout continues 

Tom Metcalf

August 25, 2015 — 6:10 AM MYT

Another $124 billion was wiped off the collective fortunes of the world’s 400 richest people today as the global selloff pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index into its first correction in nearly four years.

Twenty-four billionaires saw their wealth fall by more than ten figures on Monday, including Bill Gates who dropped $3.2 billion and Jeff Bezos, who fell $2.6 billion, according to data compiled by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Mexico's Carlos Slim lost $1.6 billion as his fortune fell to its lowest level since the Index began in 2012.Sliding markets worldwide have resulted in Chinese shares sinking the most since 2007, Germany's DAX falling into a bear market, and commodities reaching a 16-year low, as Brent crude plunged below $45 a barrel.

Last week’s declines had already seen the world’s 400 richest people lose $182 billion. A decline of $76 billion on Friday had put their fortunes into the red for the year-to-date.

The Bloomberg Billionaires Index takes measure of the world’s wealthiest people based on market and economic changes and Bloomberg News reporting. Each net-worth figure is updated every business day at 5:30 p.m. in New York and listed in U.S. dollars.

2.

The Independent - UK

News>Business>Business News>Frontpage

FTSE 100 loses £104 billion in value in one day as China stock slide prompts global selloff

HAZEL SHEFFIELD

Monday 24 August 2015

The FTSE 100 shed £104 billion at its lowest point on Monday, after severe losses in Chinese markets prompted a global sell-off.

Monday’s bloodbath marked the tenth day of consecutive losses on the FTSE 100, the longest straight period of decline since 2003. The index has lost around £218 billion in value in that time.

Many expected the Chinese government to take measures such as cutting interest rates or injecting liquidity to stop further losses after the Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 12 per cent last week. No action prompted further losses of 9 per cent on Monday.

Since August 11, $5 trillion has been been wiped off global markets after China unexpectedly devalued the yuan.

The Dow Jones also plummeted more than 1000 points on opening Monday, before rebounding slightly. The S&P 500, another US stock market index, dropped 99 points, or 5 per cent.

While plunging stock indices were attributed to lack of action in Beijing, Monday’s selloff follows months of poor data. Last week, activity in Chinese factories was shown to have dropped sharply.

Declining commodity prices continue to weigh oil giants. Glencore, Shell and Rio Tinto, which are all listed on the FTSE 100, suffered the worst declines on Monday.

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$10 Trillion Gone UPDATE: Actually It Was More Like $3 Trillion

Matt Vespa | Aug 24, 2015

Editor's Note: It was originally reported that $10 trillion had been erased, but it's been revised to $3 trillion.  The post has been updated.

Monday got off to a disastrous start for the world economy.

The Dow Jones plunged 1000 points–or 6.5 percent–upon the opening bell thanks to the volatile economic situation in China.

As Cortney wrote earlier today, the market recovered roughly half of its losses by the time trading was suspended for the day.

The New York Times compiled the butcher’s bill–and it was quite steep. $3 trillion was erased from the global stock market since the June 3 peak, the Chinese Shanghai Index lost all of the gains it has made this year, European stocks dropped 5 percent or more, and the U.S. S&P 500 closed four percent down.

At the same time, many analysts knew a recalibration of our bull market bearings was due. Right now, all eyes are on government policy:

“Everything is going to be dictated by government policy,” said Kevin Kelly, the chief investment officer of Recon Capital Partners.

“Whatever noise is coming from policy makers is going to determine the next couple weeks."

”The conversation about government policy is playing into a broader debate about the global economy’s ability to continue growing without the sort of extraordinary stimulus that has become the norm in recent years."

Investors’ worries over China’s economic slowdown and a souring view of emerging economies have rattled financial markets around the world in recent days, and showed no signs of letting up. 

“There was a huge amount of negative sentiment built in this morning,” said Dan Greenhaus, the chief global strategist at BTIG.

Many analysts have said that a correction to stock market valuations was overdue after a long bull market. And it is too early to say how the financial market slump will affect the underlying global economy where goods and services are actually produced and consumed.

Many of the world’s central bankers will have a chance later this week to compare notes and discuss whether new policy steps are needed when they gather, along with finance ministers and academics, in Jackson Hole, Wyo., for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual conference.

The lack of coverage about China’s economic woes is due to the fact that Tom Brady’s deflated footballs were deemed much more newsworthy. After analyzing a month’s worth of broadcasts, the Media Research Center discovered that “deflategate” received five times more coverage on the Big Three–ABC, NBC, and CBS, than China’s struggling economy:

In a month of coverage, from July 18 to Aug. 18, China’s economic situation was discussed for just 3 minutes and 11 seconds on the network evening news programs.

That coverage was entirely on CBS and ABC and even included a political story about Donald Trump that made a passing mention of China’s currency devaluation.

In contrast, ABC, CBS and NBC spent 18 minutes and 21 seconds on Brady’s appeal and courtroom appearances: more than five times more.China devalued its currency, called the Yuan, in what ABC World News Tonight with David Muir referred to as “a surprise move” on Aug. 11.

That send the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 200 points that day. The entire story was a mere 11 seconds long.

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The Independent - UK

TUESDAY 25 AUGUST 2015

News>UK>UK Politics Frontpage

Stock up on canned food for stock market crash, warns former Gordon Brown adviser

JON STONE Monday 24 August 2015

A former adviser to Gordon Brown has urged people to stock up on canned goods and bottled water as stock markets around the world slide.

Damian McBride appeared to suggest that the stock market dip could lead to civil disorder or other situations where it would be unreasonable for someone to leave the house.

“Advice on the looming crash, No.1: get hard cash in a safe place now; don't assume banks  and cashpoints will be open, or bank cards will work,” he tweeted.

“Crash advice No.2: do you have enough bottled water, tinned goods & other essentials at home to live a month indoors? If not, get shopping.

“Crash advice No.3: agree a rally point with your loved ones in case transport and communication gets cut off; somewhere you can all head to.”

Mr McBride credited his former boss Gordon Brown with preventing a cataclysm by nationalising the banking system during the 2008 crash.

“We were close enough in 2008 (if the bank bailout hadn't worked),” he said. “and what's coming is on 20 times that scale”.

Financial markets are unstable and periodically suffer crises which can have devastating consequences for the wider economy.

China's "Black Monday" has plunged the global financial markets into chaos.

The Shanghai Composite Index, China’s most important stock market index, was down 8.45 per cent, erasing a year’s gains in a day’s trading.

The FTSE100 fell 4.5 per cent, hoping £60bn off the price of UK shares, and the Dow Jones in the US fell by over a thousand points in its first minute of trading.

Some analysts have suggested that the stock market slide could be the start of a new global financial crisis.Mr McBride’s suggestions about stocking up on canned goods, setting rally points and stocking up on bottled water were ridiculed by some users on Twitter as over the top, however.

Mr McBride was special adviser to Gordon Brown and head of communications at the Treasury for a period during the last Labour government. 

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A blog about business and economics.

Aug. 24 2015 9:59 AM

China’s Stock Market Is Melting Down—and It’s Taking Markets Everywhere With It

By Alison Griswold

Friday was a rout in the stock markets; Monday is already looking worse. The Shanghai Composite index tumbled 8.5 percent—erasing the last of its gains for the year in its biggest single-day loss since 2007. European stocks have plunged nearly 5 percent. U.S. stocks nosedived at the opening bell:

The S&P 500 fell 99.1 points or 5.03 percent, the Dow sank 991 points or 6.02 percent, and the Nasdaq pitched 335 points or 7.12 percent. There is only one word for all of this, and it is yikes. Brent crude, the benchmark for oil prices worldwide, is trading below $45 a barrel for the first time in six years. Even gold, so often a “safe haven” commodity that investors pour money into during periods of economic uncertainty, is being weighed down

Despite climbing all spring, the Shanghai Composite has now erased its gains for the year. (Yahoo Finance)

What’s behind the apparent panic in the global economy?

Mostly China.

Over the past two weeks, China’s currency fell in value more than it did in the previous two decades. On top of that, all the recent economic data coming out of China seems to fundamentally contradict official reports of the country being on track for 7 percent growth. Investors and analysts have long questioned the accuracy of economic statistics produced by the Chinese government, so seeing those figures can’t have been entirely surprising.

But it’s only recently become clear how big the gap between official reports and China’s economic reality might be. And the bigger that gap, the greater the ramifications could be worldwide. In recent years, China has accounted for up to half of global growth, though it makes up just 15 percent of global output.

Per the Wall Street Journal, China is looking into stimulus measures:

The expected move to free up more funds for lending—by reducing the deposits banks must hold in reserve—is directly aimed at countering the effects of a weaker currency, which could send more funds away from Beijing’s shores.

The moves reflect an economy increasingly failing to cooperate with Chinese leaders’ playbook to control the world’s No. 2 economy.The Journal says this could happen by the end of August or in early September, most likely via a half-percentage-point reduction in reserve-requirement ratios for banks.

Another possibility is to just loosen the reserve requirements for banks that lend primarily to small and private businesses. China’s entrepreneurs have been stifled by the risk-averse tactics of many banks, which prefer to lend to state-owned companies than private, potentially higher-growth enterprises.

Theoretically, stimulating that kind of private-sector growth would be better for China in the long run than falling back on exports, its traditional economic mainstay. (The leading theory for why China’s central bank devalued the yuan is that it was trying to prop up exports.)

At the same time, as the Journal notes, these new “would-be drivers of the economy—high technology and entrepreneurship—aren’t filling the gap quickly enough.” In the meantime, expect a lot of turbulence in the global markets.Alison Griswold is a Slate staff writer covering business and economics.

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AUGUST 22, 2015 9:00 PM  

ECONOMY GLOBAL INSECURITY (Bloomberg)

The world’s 400 richest people lost $182 billion this week from their collective fortunes as weak manufacturing data from China and a rout in commodities sent global markets plunging.

The weekly drop for the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a group that includes Warren Buffett and Glencore Plc’s Ivan Glasenberg, was the biggest since tracking of the expanded list began in September 2014. The combined net worth of the index members fell by $76 billion on Friday alone, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of U.S. stocks ended its worst week since 2011.

“For them that’s a fractional percentage, even though $182 billion is a big number,” said John Collins, director of investment advisory at Aspiriant, which oversees more than $8 billion for high net worth clients. “A week like this feels really bad, but when you take a step back, in a big picture view it’s not a disaster by any means.”

Friday’s losses put the world’s richest 400 into the red for the year to date. They’re now down $74 billion in 2015, with a collective net worth of $3.98 trillion.

The week’s largest setback in dollar terms was experienced by Buffett, who saw his fortune drop by $3.6 billion as Berkshire Hathaway Inc. slipped more than 5 percent. The investor is the world’s third-wealthiest person, with a fortune of $63.4 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The slump in oil, which had its longest weekly losing streak since 1986 amid signs of an extended supply glut, contributed to $15.2 billion in losses for the world’s wealthiest energy billionaires. Continental Resources Inc. Chairman Harold Hamm saw $895 million, or 9 percent of his net worth, vanish this week.

Glencore’s Glasenberg

Glasenberg, chief executive officer of mining company Glencore Plc, lost $237 million during the week as commodity prices slid to their lowest levels in 13 years. Glencore reached a record low in London on Friday, down more than 8 percent from a week earlier, after the trading house reported its profit sank 56 percent in the first half of the year. Glasenberg’s fortune has decreased more than 40 percent in 2015, to $3.1 billion.

China’s 26 wealthiest people, pummeled by Hong Kong’s bear market and a weaker yen, lost $18.8 billion during the week. Wang Jianlin of Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co. was hit hardest, losing $3.5 billion.

Eleven billionaires added to their fortunes in spite of the market turmoil. The week’s biggest dollar gainer was Sun Pharmaceuticals’ Dilip Shanghvi. The world’s 39th-richest person became $467 million wealthier, elevating his net worth to $18.9 billion.

The Bloomberg Billionaires Index takes measure of the world’s wealthiest people based on market and economic changes and Bloomberg News reporting. Each net-worth figure is updated every business day at 5:30 p.m. in New York and listed in U.S. dollars.

K-ECONOMY, K-MANAGEMENT, K-ORGANIZATION,HUMAN CAPITAL, ICT – YOU'RE STILL CONFUSED? (BY NIK ZAFRI)

The battle of defining knowledge management is a never ending story.

(Cummon guys....it's 2010 now..what? you wanna wait till 2020..gosh)

To me KM; having working with bluechips that have proven themselves worthy to be called a KM and KE (Knowledge-Based Economy) – based organizations, I would still agree that :


“KM is a organizational-wide collecton of practices and approaches to generate, capture, disseminate the know-how and others relevant with the perspective of business sustainability and profit”

This is the best definition I see so far.

To those who are or has directly been involved in organizational KM will understand exactly what this definition mean.

The definition has; to a highest degree; harmoniously combined both organizational empirical PROVEN VALUES with ICT as enablers. (Mind you - please do not provide me hypotheses in your counter comments to this article as what I've said herein have been substantiated with proof. )

KM in these organizations is no longer a buzzword, lip-service or trendy – KM is a MUST to them in order to cope up with rapid changes as we are no longer absorbed to the ancient story “who moved my cheese”.

I've seen companies' thrill of victory - making billions due to proper applicaton of KM. Unfortunately; due to certain constraint; I can't reveal any of the companies name as these are their secret recipes of success – trust me (so don't ask)

But on the other hand, I've also witnessed companies' agony of defeat being closed even go bust – due to WRONG applications used and wrong way of 'hybriding' management systems. In the end, the practitioners themselves tend to be CONFUSED themselves.

Communication has evolved rapidly due to the phrase 'knowledge sharing'. It helps in the context of maintaining the 'one captain in one ship' and 'one (management) game plan'. Grapevine at its best!!

We are no longer alone!

If we have to collaborate, then do so!
If we have to be a smart partner or associate, then be one!
If we have to merge; merge then!

(But why the defensive and protective attitude..you wanna go global - don't you, you wanna grow bigger, don't you?)


K-Economy unlike P-Economy (although productivity is still an inevitable issue) everything and everyone in any organization will have a certain impact on the overall economy itself.

Better – these organizations can still 'make money' during recession. (yes, this is what I'm talking about – bearish during good times and bullish to make a comeback during 'bad times')

Face it - Today - economy NO longer depends solely on the "conventionals" such as movement of composite index in the stock market, inflation/deflation, candlestick/technical charts, oil price, USD, political & psychological sentiments, bull or bear, speculation or hedging etc.

BUT

rather we are seeking a more convincing story like PROPER JUSTIFICATIONS or 'COHERENT FACTORS' to JUSTIFY of WHY are there economical fluctuations? or WHY are the charts indicating erratic trends or probably WHAT has political sentiments got to do with the stock market etc. (in laymen terms - not limited only to economist but people at large as well regardless of who they are or where they come from)

(I recalled the The Oracle advising Neo in Matrix Reloaded:

“You didn't come here to make a decision, you already made the decision, now you need to understand WHY you make such decision” (something like that)

So, these justifications require KNOWLEDGE – proper KNOWLEDGE from your own skills, competencies, experience etc. Even paper qualifications are no longer a priority.


“Today – Nik, if there is no control on qualifications being issued, one day you throw a stone in the air, it will definitely hit on a Master Degree Holder's head”

– quoting what the-then Prime Minister, the living legend – Tun Dr. Mahathir once said to me in 1995 when doing the site-walk during the construction of KLCC Petronas Towers.

Tips :

Understand first the scope of service or product provision that your company is doing.

Draw up the core business process

Decide what sort of ICT application or system to be used to expedite operation.

What did you say? I don't understand - well, Bill Gates said that something like this


"KM doesn't even START with a software or application!"

Posted: 04 November 2007 at 3:54pm - The STAR Global Malaysians Forum - hread "Moment Silence"

I was asked by one forumer on 'one post' here in Global Malaysians that read :

nikzafri wrote:

Foo and everyone.I do not know if you people believe in the universal
or cosmic power that talks about laws of attraction. It is the one 'moment in time'
when you give to the needies or being good samaritans, and for some reason,
you 'overlook' the thought of getting something back in return but quoting Foo
- "done in good faith and humanity"In most cases, you WILL get something back
(some sort like a 'reward' for good deeds - provided that you're not hoping for
something in return).

Has it ever occur to you that why do philantropists making good habits to give 1/2 or 1/4 of their wealth for good causes? Oooo..some people told me, it's because to avoid tax. But try to think for a while if you are to become very very rich and you've got everything in the world that you've ever wished for, what else is there to do with the balance? Keep it to yourself? 'm sure you all know who Bill Gates is. He was the President of Microsoft once and he got so bored sitting up there and went down 'demoting' himself to become the Marketing man and start pushing Microsoft's marketing.

Then he somehow felt that it's time to pass over to new breed and blood and now he's in his very own foundation..doing what? Becoming more generous and generous.I recalled talking to Gerard Lee about this matter but in the economics perspective -
i.e. Liquidity in the long run. But not so many people has this kind of 'faith'
(even if they do..they can't stand the pressure too long)...most of them are impatient...when they give something, they do want something back in return and fast!

Someone very wise told me the following words: "If you are too obsessed in chasing for richness, you cannot define yourself as working hard, but you are; in fact; greedy. Just stop the chasing for a while and you'll see, the richness will come to seek you."

"There's no such thing as a "Perfect Human Being"....when you try to be too perfect & cannot afford to make any mistakes, you're killing yourself or worse commit suicide..but if you can afford to make mistakes and learn from them - that's what being human is all about..not a perfect human but human."

Another ruling on the laws of attraction states that instead you're focussing your inner powers so much to weaken certain people in order to 'take over' their position, you are actually making them more powerful and usually you'll loose in the end. On the other hand, you should focus and telling yourself these positive vibes- "I can do it..I can do it...I can do it...I will succeed, I will succeed, I will succeed" or if you want take him/her to become your idol, you can tell yourself "He's/She's a normal human being, he/she has brains, he/she works hard....So do I"Something for you all to think about.

Cheers (I'm off to work again)
--------------------------------------

The questions are about to know more about Laws of Attraction - among others:

1) Logical or not logical?
2) How it is actually done?
3) Would I be successful?

And I have great respect for the forumer because he/she (?) said :

"Criticize me if you have to! I can take it!" So here goes..

I need to tell this forumer (hereinafter referred to as "You" :-)) that I myself is not an expert or 'authority' in this field but I can share few tips :

(but alas, for personal reasons, I can't tell you or guarantee success or have I been successful in practising this?Otherwise a lot of people will take my words as gospel)

My answers will be based on few books that I've read from renowned authors such as:

a. Victor Norman Peale
b. Jose Silva
c. Napoleon Hill
d. Wallace D. Wattles
e. Joe Vitale

If you have read any of these books or similar to them, you will know that the first
golden rule of practising Law of Attraction (as they call it today or any other equivalent terms used) is :

a. Cast away your doubts - Believe - in other words - Have faith.

Thus when you asked in your 3rd question :"Will it be succesful?" - Then I would deem that you have broken to first rule by being doubtful? :-)

(inquisitiveness? curiosity? you said? Nay..they are totally different - in spelling and in meaning..inquisitiveness is usually being expressed by a practitioner/believer but he/she wanted to continually improve his/hertechniques) - no offend :-)

Coming back to the first question.

b. Is it logical or not logical.

My answer would be :

The decision of whether it is logic or non-logic is made by you and you alone - not me or not the authors. It is really up to you to reject or accept.

But you asked : Logic or Not Logic...Again the question represents :doubt.

A popular management phrase :

"People will reject something that they don't understand" which is to be simply interpreted as "Rejection to CHANGE!"

(Remember when many ancient scientists been considered magicians and eventually punished unfairly because people at that time REJECT things that they do not understand - luckily I don't live in this era! :-) )

Thus, if you are a teacher, do you find it difficult to explain or to educate the students once they have the REJECTION* attitude/mindset 'built-in'..

I'm sure and really hope - you're not one of them. (*Ignorance/Just Don't want or don't wish to understand or afraid of the consequences) Less but not least,

c) "How is it done?"

My question back to you? Have you actually read any of the books? :-)

How come you're asking me back the questions when you said you have actually READ one of the books I mentioned above? Really?

Now, after you have read my views on your questions, you can now read the non-intellectual tips once you have considered seriously what I've said above. All positive inputs are meant only for positive ouputs.

(Yeah I know people might misunderstood and argue on the typical fomula Positive + Positive but I'm not referring to 3 M (Maths or Marriage or Magnetic Field)..I'm talking about 'karma' or 'what goes around comes around' or whatever you want to call it)

I use to tell my friends all the time :

"If you pose someone a stupid question, (it is likely that) you'll get a stupid answer"

"The mirror doesn't lie to you, it's you who are lying to the mirror"

If you read back the original thread posted here, I was talking about being generous once you're rich. This statement; if not properly understood; might be seen as 'self-imposement of 'self created strict law' that you MUST forced/coerced) give in order to make LOA works! (hahaha..you're DEAD wrong!)

If you think that being generous will make you reap rewards, think again!

(In another perspective, you are teaching 'the man upstairs' of his job...when he already know what his job is...it's you who do not understand..you are providing your own terms and conditions that is "If I give I must get something back" who you're foolin?)

If I am him, I would say to you "You dare to teach me!!" :-) )

a) It is not really being generous when you start lying to yourself - means that
'you are asking/hoping something in return for something you give?" which makes you to a certain degree - an 'insincere' person? Again another golden rule broken.

b) you are creating another 'false rule yourself' about YOU MUST BE GENEROUS when you're practising Laws of Attraction (LOA).

What really is happening to you at this juncture is that without you realizing it, you are actually trying to pathetically xeroxing Bill Gates or Rockafeller without asking them why the heck are you guys being generous? Rule broken again.

The idea of being generous ONLY when you have money is illogical. So, you don't have money, you're not generous'lah'?...a rather narrow thinking - don't you think?

How about sharing food? or giving away/donating your clothes or other valuables to people in need? Being generous is not necessarily because you have money. I don't think you will be successful in your life if you hold to this principle. It's like waiting to be rich first before you can become generous later...hahaha..good luck my friend..

I'll tell you what this 'generous' attitude really means (in my opinion - taking into account the books that I've read):

Being generous is the expression of "being thankful" or "greatful" for "what you have been 'awarded' with..that's all. (and it's not only MONEY!)

Otherwise you'll end being generous because the LOA says so...which is not really accurate. (I'm not saying it's wrong to be generous but change the perspective a bit)

Now, how to create that 'thankful feeling' on the first place? Here are some basics :

Just flashback and remember/recall what has befallen you "BEFORE YOU ARE RICH" in the past? Financial Difficulty? Being Poor? How does it feel like? Would you want to be 'that way' again? Or have you forgotten your 'dark' past?

Only then, you would be really be thankful or greatful and as a result you would be
generous...now this is PURE SINCERITY - (which you will definitely FEEL so good..trust me not to mention of donating without wanting publicity (that is a BONUS!)

Thus, you're being generous because you're thankful or greatful for what you have been bestowed with and feel so good when you can help people out...You don't need anything in return because you already GOT IT!

Thus :

Input = Practising LOA
Output = Being Thankful/Greatful equals to "Generosity/Pure Sincererity"

(God..I feel like I'm a somesort of a 'guru' or something...hahaha..funny)

Now this is what I call giving back what you have been given.

Some deals can be tough!!



Microsoft and Yahoo! No deal
May 8th 2008 | SAN FRANCISCO
From The Economist print edition

Microsoft walks away from Yahoo!, and both companies lose


RATHER as John McCain cannot be displeased to have seen Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama fighting it out, Google has for the past three months enjoyed watching its only two serious rivals, Yahoo! and Microsoft, tear each other to pieces. Yahoo!, once an internet pioneer, has fallen far behind Google in web search and related advertising. Microsoft still dominates desktop computing but lags behind Google as software moves online. So Steve Ballmer, Microsoft's boss, dared ask Yahoo!: what would be wrong with making, if not exactly a dream team, at least a joint effort out of it?

But on May 3rd, after a frustrating marathon of meetings, Mr Ballmer walked away. He had raised his offer for Yahoo! from an initial $44.6 billion on January 31st to about $47.5 billion, some 70% more than Yahoo!'s value at the time of the opening bid. Jerry Yang, Yahoo!'s co-founder and boss, wanted at least $5 billion more. Mr Ballmer wrote him a bitter letter saying that “you and your stockholders have left significant value on the table.” Wall Street's verdict, on May 5th, was to cut Yahoo!'s value to $34 billion.

That the sell-off was not even worse primarily reflects the possibility that a deal may yet happen. Another software company, Oracle, recently dropped a bid for a smaller rival, BEA Systems, after its board rejected the offer, but eventually had its way after BEA's angry shareholders forced their board back into negotiations and a sale. Mr Ballmer's farewell letter to Yahoo!, by recapitulating the negotiations in all their embarrassing detail, provides just the sort of fodder for Yahoo!'s investors to order Mr Yang to resume talks.

Mr Ballmer took particular pains to criticise Yahoo!'s readiness to “make Yahoo! undesirable as an acquisition for Microsoft.” By this he means Mr Yang's apparent plan to outsource Yahoo!'s search-advertising technology to, of all people, Google. In a purely mathematical sense, this could indeed make Yahoo! somewhat more valuable. Google is better than Yahoo! or Microsoft at placing relevant ads next to search results and collects more in revenue for each resulting mouse click.

Yet it is a bizarre tactic. The history of Yahoo! during this decade is of trying, failing, and trying again to catch up with Google in search advertising. Its first big failure was not to bid high enough to buy Google outright. Its next attempt, in 2003, was to buy Overture, the company that pioneered search advertising, but by then Google was pulling ahead. An outsourcing deal with Google was considered and rejected. For the past two years Yahoo! has invested oodles in a project called Panama that was meant, again, to catch Google.

Presumably Yahoo! has been exerting itself so because it believes that the advertising technology is, along with search, the source of competitive advantage in the internet era. That is certainly what Microsoft believes, which is why it bought aQuantive, an online-advertising specialist, and built its own search-ads platform, called adCenter. What Yahoo! and Microsoft lack is volume—in the number of both searches and advertisers bidding to place ads. Teaming up would help to address that problem; but a capitulation by Yahoo! to Google would merely invite antitrust regulators to look at Google's dominance.

Mr Yang could merge Yahoo! with AOL, the web portal of Time Warner, but AOL already outsources its search ads to Google and would be no help at all in catching the leader. Asserting, as Mr Yang does, that Yahoo! all by itself could become “the starting point” on the internet, and its advertising powerhouse, rings hollow.

Things look just as bleak for Mr Ballmer. He has invested billions trying to make Microsoft an internet and advertising superpower. But it seems not to matter. According to Danny Sullivan, a web-search analyst, Microsoft “literally has no brand” when it comes to its online services—nobody has ever been advised “to Live” or “to MSN” a recipe or a cute classmate. The only one having any fun continues to be Google.

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 05 May 2006 at 8:23pm

A quick coffee break.

1) TIPS ON HOW TO BECOME RICH INVESTING IN THE STOCK MARKET
http://www.visoracle.com/market/stocks.html

How to become rich in the stock market?
Don't be the Investor!

Millions of people are lured into buying stocks, based on promises by the - what it likes to call itself - financial industry. These promises are disguised as only a few outstanding success strategies. Let us start with what everyone considers to be the more dumb ones:

Watch TV or read the newspaper and simply go with the flow, do what other do, buy some arbitrary stocks and wait for the big money.
Have a friend who recommends something or whose gains makes oneself jealous, and be eventually talked into investing or trading.

Here are the ones, which seem to be much smarter:

Use charts, find patterns and calculate precise entry points to have an edge.

React to news and price changes quicker than quicksilver and have a speed advantage.

Be a fundamentalist, analyse and examine every data that comes out of a company, and then buy only cheap at a reasonable price.

Make global judgements about the economy and hit the right turning point for a general entry into the market to elegantly avoid analysing details of pea size.

Buy the broader market with index funds, based on the idea that overall the stock market reflects the ongoing advance in the world and thus stock indices are doing well longterm.

Delegate the work of making investment decisions to a professional, who, because being a professional, should outsmart the market.

Most people adhere not only to a single pure form of these strategies. They rotate between them, they try different flavors of them, they mix things up, they even start an investment with one strategy and close it with another. Or they start trading and end up with an investment. But important here is, that the latter behaviors seem to have all good arguments. The former types of "investors" are in one sense rare - if conducting a statistical inquiry, most participants would think of themselves belonging to the smarter group and would find their reasons and reasoning of why and what they are doing among the latter strategies. That is why it is generally believed that investing in the stock market will make people wealthy.

Now let's consider a different view of the stock market, a table with six players.

In the middle we have Mr. Doe, the private investor, left to him sits Mr. Clever who is a professional fund manager and at the right of him is Mr. Smart, a professional money manager for individual clients. On the other side of the table we have Mr. Broker, Mr. Market-Maker and Mr. Company. They all are doing what the market does - they are exchanging stock shares and bank notes, putting them on the table and taking them away at times. Let us concentrate on the money only, after all the money is the only thing that counts. Neither has the table a hole through which money could vanish, nor does money rain onto it. All money put onto or withdrawn from the table has to go through the player's hands. Let's have a look at Mr. Broker first

Busy Mr. Broker only sells and always wins

He charges a fee for simply forwarding an order from Mr. Doe, Mr. Smart and Mr. Clever to someone else. All that without risk and pain, and after doing so he pockets the fee - he takes it from the table. He can't make a loss, so with a bunch of marketing tricks he animates everyone to give him as fast as possible a new order. Important here is, what he does with regard to the table. He never puts money onto it, he only takes money away.

Mr. Market-Maker is known to be in a good trading position

He is the one who takes the other side of a trade and makes a mostly riskless business with the spread, a difference between buy and sell price. Furthermore he has state of the art equipment, which he watches like a hawk all day in a big room with other's doing the same, hoping that many hawkish eyeballs are seeing more than single prey's ones. But that's not all, he is known to be in a strong trading position, too. He works for a big company with much money, which other traders fear, so he is able to drive prices up and down, enticing euphoric Doe into high prices and shaking out trembling Doe with a loss at low prices. He initiates breakouts, which Doe falsely interprets as signals. Doing so he himself buys low and sells high. Some badmouthing tongues even argue that Mr. Market-Maker makes money with illegal insider information, front running or stock pumping. Not enough with that, he is supposed to create up- and downgrades, something like home made news, just to influence supply and demand of a stock to force its price to a level where he can sell or buy with more profit or a smaller loss. Overall Mr. Market-Maker seldom makes a loss, on average, he always wins. To make it short, he too takes only away money from the table.

For Mr. Company the stock market is a real gold mine

He has a special seat, with a big sign above it, on which is written - on his side so that especially Mr. Doe can't see it - "capital source". The other side of this sign could be labelled "capital drain", but that would lower the mood, so it only says "welcome". Mr. Company comes to the table right away from the printing press, with a big chunk of newly created stock certificates - paper, which he dumps on the table while cashing in tons of money. Will he ever give this money back? Hehe, stupid question, no he won't. The alternative for him is to borrow money by emitting bonds, which he obviously thinks of being more expensive in this case than selling paper. After all in the bond market he would have to give back what he borrowed after paying interest for it.

In very few cases his company survives and prospers. Then - in the far distant future - it is expected to pay back something to the table. Mr. Company can ignore such an expectation for a long time or even for the whole lifetime of the company, there is no law requiring him to fulfil it. But he can do so by paying a marginal dividend or by buying directly back some shares from the table, preferably when stock prices are low. That looks good and may cost him no money at all, because there are some nice ways to offset such payments.

First, while making these payments, he can do a secondary offering. Mr. Company simply comes back to the table and dumps again a chunk of paper on it. Sounds primitive? No problem, he can mask the operation a bit.

He does it just a bit before or after the phase of payments, preferably when stock prices are high. Buying back low and dumping high is a profitable business on its own.

Or he creates sort of options by printing the additional word "warrant" or "convertible" on the paper. That means that he starts two dumping actions, one now for the option paper and one later in the future for exchanging the option paper for the original paper, cashing in twice.
Even better he splits off a part of his company, declares it being a new one and sells paper with a new company name printed on it.
If he is lazy, he simply distributes paper with the old name to the employees of his company. He can pay smaller salaries this way. Employees get shares proportional to their importance, meaning that he gets the biggest share, because he considers himself of being most important. Instead of one big, many smaller chunks are now dumped on the table.

There is another rare and very special case how money comes back from Mr. Company, a cash paid take over. Another Mr. C arrives at the table and buys with real cash all paper of Mr. Company from Doe, Smart and Clever back. But usually this other Mr. C got the whole money from the table firsthand, so this way nothing really comes back.

Actually Mr. Company is supported by two other persons behind the scenes. Mr. Investment-Banker helps carrying Mr. Company's paper chunk to the table. With much trumpeting he praises its quality as an investment. If Doe, Clever and Smart are nonetheless skeptical, Mr. Market-Maker, with his many tricks, makes the new stock's price going up. Then Mr. Doe loses all doubts and shoves the tons of money over the table to Mr. Company. Mr. Investment-Banker's risk is that he projects too big a chunk of paper for the table, so that he has to push the missing tons of money to Mr. Company, but that happens rarely. Mostly Mr. Investment-Banker just gets his fixed percentage of the tons of money from Mr. Company. Seen as an entity both will of course always drain money from the table during the paper dumping action.

Mr. Company's second supporter, Mr. Venture-Capitalist, got beforehand his own chunk privately from Mr. Company in exchange for money, hoping that Mr. Company raises the seed and is invited by Mr. Investment-Banker to the table eventually. He may even get a chunk from Mr. Company later when the stock is already on stage, typically for a better than the price at the table. In both cases he hopes that he can sell his chunk for a profit, which may or may not come true, but at the table he will never do anything else than dumping his paper and raking in money.

So we have three gentleman at the table taking away money. Some do it gently but constantly, some more raid-like.

Finally Mr. TaxMan appears every now and then, grabbing some money from the table and out of the trouser pockets of the participants and grins. Of course he never puts money onto the table either.

What about Doe, Smart and Clever? Well, they are fighting for who has to put the least amount of money on the table to feed the other side. We know that Clever and Smart are acting on behalf of Doe. They get a riskless payment from Doe for this fight, so it is not really that important for them whether they lose more or less.

It looks as if poor Mr. Doe is the real loser in this game. Interestingly Mr. Doe has a different perception of this.

But I already made a nice gain in the stock market !?
This seems to be a paradox. Yet it is none. The table view of the stock market is a totalized one, a view which cares only for averages. Of course there can be many individual Does having made their profit in the market, but on average Doe is the big loser. There can be a market maker, who suffered a big loss, which he never recovered, because he went broke. Yes, there even can be a company caring for its shareholders buying back stock shares and paying dividends with every free cash it earns doing its business, not offsetting these payments with tricks Mr. Doe is not aware of.

A second point of confusion is what happens away from the table. Mr. Market-Maker or Mr. Broker may have to pay a hefty monthly bill for their equipment, salaries and rent, so that they only break even. Mr. Venture-Capitalist may enthusiastically invest in any nonsense idea he hears of, so that he overall makes a loss. Mr. Company may have the wrong concept, not enough talent or too much competition, causing him to burn all money and go broke. He may be a genius, resulting in ever growing earnings of his company. All that is not important for the table model of the stock market. Even a rising price of a paper on the table doesn't matter. It looks like Doe, Smart and Clever are winning in this case, but alas, high prices are only tempting Mr. Company to dump the next chunk of paper. The only question that counts, is

Does the money flow through a player's hand from or to the table ?
The futures market is called by many a zero-sum game, because for every contract traded, there is a buyer and a seller and what one wins must be paid by the other. There is the proposition that the stock market is a positive-sum game, because over a long term, let's say some decades, stock market indices went up. Well, the table model suggests that the opposite is true. For Doe, Smart and Clever it is a negative-sum game. How can that be? Over time problematic index stocks get replaced by fresh ones with brighter future perspectives, so indices are distorted. But the main reason is simply, that all the owners of stock own paper but not money. If they all wanted to exchange their paper into money to get what the ever rising indices promise, these indices would drop to zero immediately. The stock market is basically a pyramid scheme, which implodes eventually, sometimes self induced, sometimes triggered by external events. More often it implodes only partly for some stocks or temporarily and so that not all stocks recover. That may be one reason why all this is so hard to believe.

Back to the beginning to the more smarter strategies how to beat the market. Will they not allow you to make money in the stock market? Doe, Smart and Clever are essentially fighting for a positive piece of a negative cake. So you nearly have to be a wizard to succeed. At least you have to be very good in your niche. This innocent little sentence contains what I consider to be

The first and most important secret to make money in the stock market
You are destined to lose. If you aim to be a wizard and turn your fate around, you have to have a niche, a specific system in which every part fits to every other. Every particle which doesn't fit, drastically lowers your chance of success. Amazingly you are yourself one particle of the system, your strategy must fit to your personal psychology, you must feel comfortable to follow it. It is possible to combine and refine above mentioned smart strategies, but never stop searching for the grain of sand that blocks the gear. Think about the tricks of Mr. Market-Maker, Mr. Broker and Mr. Company and design your private investment or trading system around their traps. You have to trade or invest not only wisely, you have to do it differently.

The red hot trading system and the proven safe investment strategy
for which you may have been searching so long, are exactly the wrong way. You have to avoid everything prefabricated or you are perfect food for the sharks out there. Using a published system out of the box will always put you in a predictable crowd. You may even be riding a Trojan horse, originally designed by one of your enemies. Moreover it will not really fit to you, and it probably has other grains of sand in the gear. But beware, just mixing popular trading or investment system elements crudely into another system, disregarding the traps, will only add some big stones to the grains of sand. A better idea is to let existing strategies inspire you. Have a look at their elements from the perspective of the sharks, combine fitting ones and think through the whole. Before I wish you good luck, which you will need for surviving in the stock market, let me emphasize here again: If playing a negative-sum game against sharks and random, you at least must not be predictable, as the mathematics of game theory shows. You have to create your own very personal and specific system.

2) TRADING THE COMMODITIES AND FUTURES MARKETS
http://www.visoracle.com/market/futures.html

Trading the commodities and futures markets:
A survival game Markets

Everyone who plays with the idea to speculate with commodities or futures, should step back now, take a deep breather and reevaluate this plan. These markets are a game of professionals - and I am inclined to add here - for the likes of them. Numerous studies have shown, that for most private traders (more than 90%) this is a losing game. Being a classic zero sum game overall, there must be someone who wins, and that someone is a minority of professionals.

The slippery churning of brokers, dealers and floor traders. Fees and spreads have to be paid in all financial markets to buy or sell something, but open outcry markets have a tendency to make prices run away in the wrong direction for orders from outsiders that seek to be filled. It remains an unanswered question whether the pure specialist system of listed stocks like the old NYSE, the competing market maker system of NASDAQ, either one combined with a competing electronic order book or the open outcry market is the fairest market. Pit traders like to accuse specialists of having too much power to manipulate their prices. They conceal that specialists have the obligation to make an orderly market with guarantees for reasonable fills. Taking into account that open outcry traders tend to behave coherently, there is no big difference to the specialist's power. Both, but even more the pit traders, resist to compete against a computerized market like an ECN or outright refuse to trade off-floor through a computer system, which would put them on par with other market participants.

Contrarian trading - the advantage of the producer

Price movements especially of futures markets are noisy. There are random fluctuations and self-induced starts or breakouts, which later prove to be non-substantial. This is the fundament for an anti cyclical trading strategy - buy low and sell high, or the other way round. As studies have shown, hedgers, companies or entities which sell what they produce or buy what they need for producing, are the big winners of the commodities and more general the futures markets. They often have a better insider knowledge about what is going on in their market than anyone else. Adding to that, they have the advantage that they are hedging - they actually only need to conduct one side of the trade, either they buy or they sell. This gives them the ability to calculate their trade in the light of their main business, which essentially caps their risk. Also, being better capitalized, they can afford to be longer term oriented.

For the private trader or speculator the contrarian system could prove disastrous. What if the price move turns out to be substantial and results in a trend or at least a new level of price? Combine the counter cyclical market entry with a stop loss? This would be a self contradicting system. A trading strategy which is incoherent is most likely invalid as a system. Having no stop loss is of course even worse. That's how amateurs go broke even in the stock market, which lacks (short or margin operations aside) the infinite risk practically created by leverage in the futures market.

Sometimes producers choose to go with what they see as an emerging trend or what they anticipate to become an enduring new supply and demand situation, so of course they are not bound to the countertrend method, but the long term contrarian trading strategy is only appropriate for them. To emphasize it again, as studies show, they are the big winners.

Following the trend - holy grail or well known secret of trading futures?

The third group of winners in the futures markets are so called commodity trade advisors (CTA), hedge fund managers and some well capitalized and experienced individual speculators. They are primary - as long as they make money - procyclical. They try to buy high and sell higher or vice versa. Is it this easy? No, even the most successful traders of this group suffer severe setbacks, they just won't tell it you. However, they have some advantages over the ordinary speculator. They are bigger in size, they use sophisticated statistical methods to create mechanical trading systems that actually do make money, they know about the importance of good money management and they are generally more experienced.

Creating breakouts of ranges or starts and turns of a trend

The naive way to start trading trends might go like this: Take a chart book, spot some trends and get the impression, that one just had to enter the market here and leave it there to become rich. Well, that's hindsight! To get early on a trend and to ride it as long as possible is easy in hindsight, but hard in reality. First, you have to enter a trend. You are looking for a starting point. That's where the malaise begins. There are strong market players, who produce breakouts of ranges, restarts and turns of trends, because they know many will stumble after them in expectation of a new forming or ongoing trend. If the "trend" turns out to be short lived, they can get out with a profit, because they entered the market at the best levels. Guess what, who pays the bill? Mostly the small private trader, but often enough the professional trend followers, too. That's why the rate of failure among them is much higher than these professionals are ready to admit. Who plays this pattern of buying low, pushing the price through a resistance or turning a trend around in order to hopefully initiating the next round of directional movement? Probably both - producers and trend followers, they just have to have enough capital. The futures markets are exceptionally prone to false breakouts and trends have wilder swings, tempting speculators to leave early or enter late - possibly with a loss. Just have a look at charts, and compare them with the stock market. But be cautious, this is easier said than done - the human mind is a pattern recognizing machine - it will always find the patterns it is looking for.

Using statistics to develop a mechanical trading system

One way to circumvent this problem of an optimistic mind finding occasions not only occasionally is to compile a trading system into an algorithm, which is then followed by a computer without being distorted by sentiments and psychological effects and without making mistakes by lacking discipline. But first one has to identify an edge, which is statistical sound. This means that you can use statistics to crystallize a system, which - so to speak metaphorically - meanders around all pitfalls, all the edges winning players have. Of course there is not much space for winners left, and that's why even professional system traders often lose, too.

The typical private trader has really a disadvantage in this area, he is just not sophisticated enough. He might buy complete systems or programs, which can evaluate trading systems, test them and optimize them, but mostly he is not aware of the mathematics, which are behind all this. Over-optimization or curve fitting is one cardinal sin, second guessing of trading signals another one. The typical trader tends to mix up signals of his system with discretionary decisions or tries to change the system every next time. Emotions have discipline in headlock and chaotic behavior is the result - the opposite of a trading system.

Summary of a zero sum game

Brokers charge a fee and have a riskless income. Floor traders slip away and cut out small but constant gains. Producers milk the markets big with contrarian trading. Deep pockets initiate false movements and let others stumble into their losses. The only chance are trends, but they are rare, and they are carved out by statistically sophisticated system traders or producers with better fundamental foresight. The private trader has to make the sum of the zero sum game become zero. He is there to feed the sharks.

Making things worse: Bad money management

An additional reason why so many novices are losing in this game is the lack of proper money management. To put it simple, they are overtrading. Newcomers intuitively often misinterpret the margin they have to pay as their bet size, and that's why they are overtrading grossly. Usually they are out of the game very soon. But even making bet sizes only slightly too big will make your losses overcompensating your gains on average and your capital will decline over time. This holds true even if you have an edge. Bad money management destroys your advantage - if you have one at all. The reason is mathematics. To make a simple example assume that you have no edge, but put on trades with a very big bet size. A typical gain of 50% of your capital has statistically the same probability as a typical loss of 50%. But to recoup the loss you must win 100%! Even optimistic advantages will get converted into their negative counterpart by what I call the relative-absolute effect.

3) OPTIONS
http://www.visoracle.com/market/options.html

The biggest piece of the cake and options trading

Real life will often give you only a tiny piece of the cake, while you know of others, who got a much bigger one. Are you hungry and want to know, why your piece is so small? A good example for studying this phenomenon is the attempt to become rich by trading the options market. An option is something which you can buy and sell, thus it is possible to trade it, and which gives you the right to do something later in the future. In case of the stock options market, an option gives you the right to buy or sell a stock at a specific price on a specific date in the future. Important is, that this specific price is fixed, it doesn't depend on the stock's price at that future date. The price you have to pay to buy an option is determined by the market - people who are trying to figure what it could be worth to possess this option and who are bidding or asking for a price to buy or sell it.

Trading options is like buying a ticket in a lottery

Let's say there is a stock which trades at 50$, and an option to buy this stock in 3 month for 100$. Why should one want to buy the stock for 100$ when it sells now for 50$ you might ask. Well, because there is a small chance that in 3 month it is worth e.g. 150$, which would cause a value of 50$ for the buy option then. Of course it is much more likely that the stock will be trading for fewer than 100$ in 3 month, and that would make the option worthless - it would expire and simply vanish. Because of this asymmetry of chances the price of the option now is small, for instance 1$. If the stock really tripled from $50 to $150 in 3 month, the option would increase its value from $1 to $50 following the price ups and downs of its master. In a nutshell, options are things whose prices are fluctuating wildly and which have the potential to soar to a multiple of what one paid for them, but mostly they expire worthless. Options are speculating vehicles par excellence.

The zero sum game

It is not only possible to buy an option, you can sell one, too. Imagine you have some stocks in your account, and you are betting that the price will not go from 50 to 100$ in the next three month. Then you can sell the buy option to some speculator and pocket 1$. In this case you literally have created the buy option. If you are wrong with your bet, you will have to hand over your stocks in 3 month for 100$ each, less than what you would have earned in the market then. The interesting point here is, that for every option buyer there is a seller, every amount one wins has to be paid by some other market participant who loses. This is what ivory tower theoreticians of the financial industry like to call a zero sum game.

The winner takes it all

Prices go up and down, the arithmetic balance of gains and losses is zero and the media tell us mostly about winners and only sometimes about losers. All this leads many to think of a game with chances of at least 50:50 for their personal success or failure. But, let's remember, most options expire worthless and only few are gaining hugely. Simply spoken, it is very likely that you are a loser at the end of the game. Let's assume 10000 people are playing this zero sum game in an option market set up only for them. No one can outsmart the other, all have the same information and skills, so effectively everything is driven by random. Adding all their losses and gains together will always show a balance of zero. But, the longer this game is played, the more the capital is concentrated on very few of the 10000 people. Who the lucky ones are may change, but the concentration increases all the time, statistically. In other words, the probability that a single individual is a loser steadily moves towards 100 percent. This effect works the stronger, the more speculative one operates. So, buying options "out of the money" (like the example described above) makes you very quickly poor, but trading them or buying options "in the money" and even the opposite, selling them, is ruled by this effect, too.

Beyond the financial markets

In fact, in many other areas of life the, what I call it, relative-absolute-effect converts dreams of becoming rich or successful into their oppositional materializations. Relative dynamics are perceived and treated as being absolute. The option market is just a very good example for this fallacy. Whenever there is a jackpot to win, you can be sure that chances are good, that you walk home from the casino as a loser. If you start playing with a given capital, it is likely that you end up with nothing. The mere effect of concentration will cause this, so it is not necessary that the game or system itself is unfair, which it nonetheless mostly is. But not only the world of roulette, lotteries and trading is affected - the effect of concentration is universal. Life itself is sort of a game, some become rich during playing it. Earning interest and leaving the inheritance to the heirs, would make in a few generations most people poor as a church mouse and very few super rich, if there were no taxes. Our daily struggle to make a living presents itself quite similar. Most people get only a fraction of the huge salaries few others earn, which extends from individual employees to whole countries. Growth processes happen on logarithmic scales. If a manager gets a salary increase, the difference could be alternatively used to pay 10 new employees. In the third world you could probably employ a whole village with the money. Will the manager work equivalently harder after the salary increase? Evolution is another example. Small advantages of a species over other ones in the same niche, are considered to cause the others to die out after several generations. This is an increase to the maximal possible concentration of the winner - the best adapted species, as biologists would put it.

Mixing up maximum, mean and median

If you want to succeed or have to survive in some area, look at the mechanisms that are at work and try to find out whether relative or absolute changes take place. If the system is closed and no resources can flow in from the outside - the cake has to be divided as it is, and the law of logarithmic growth rules - there is some sort of jackpot, be careful, don't be too speculative. Furthermore you shouldn't have to rely on such a system as a substantial investment. It doesn't help you that you theoretically could win the jackpot, when you realistically get near to nothing. You are a human being, you need an absolute amount of energy and resources to live - not a theoretical chance for something relative big. Look at what most people in that system get - the median, and keep in mind that not only the biggest piece of the cake, but also the arithmetic mean - the zero sum in the example of trading options, is an illusion.

The best system for trading options - don't do it

To complete this article for option traders let me mention shortly another aspect of the market. In theory the option markets, be it stock or future options, are really a zero sum game, but real life is far from that. The modern hunter of our financial world is the market maker, and he will assure with all sorts of tricks that the zero is greatly negative. Characteristic of the options market is a very high spread, the difference between buy and sell price at the same time, which the market maker cashes in. Really outstanding is the ability of a market maker to raise the price of an option more than proportionally, when everyone wants to buy it, i.e. when the underlying stock gives a trade signal. You think you will work with a stop loss? In the moment of an adverse price movement of the stock, when you want to sell your option, these legal criminals now exaggerate the option's price drop! All in all these tricks are the second reason to keep your money and mind away from this hunting ground of the sharks.

4) SWINGTREND
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend

Swingtrend - trading system elements for your personal market strategy
Why a personal system? One conclusion of the Stock Market article is that every prefabricated trading system is doomed to fail. Almost every trading system you can buy as a book, course or software guides you either directly into the pitfalls of financial sharks or not enough degrees of freedom are pinpointing a too specific system. Used by too many traders the sense of the market will adapt to it and exploit their naive followers. Instead the smart trader should consider to assemble his very personal trading system. Always have in mind what trading edge other market participants have, what methods and techniques they use, and build your trading system around their traps.

Build your own trading or investing system by putting together elements of existing ones! Important is, that all pieces of the puzzle fit together and fit to you, because you are part of the puzzle. Trading is psychology! You have to feel comfortable executing your strategy. Otherwise you will be overriding your system, change it often and let your confusion dissipate almost working system rules to chaos. Browse through this collection of trading systems and ideas that have at least a grain of truth in them, but don't expect to find the complete money machine.

5) TRADING SECRETS UNLEASHED!! <--- my favourite -
a) Arbitrage Virtual

http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/arbitrage.html

Virtual arbitrage trading system

BUY RULE

Buy the futures when they are trading at a 0.5% discount to the cash market.

SELL RULE

Sell the futures when they are trading at a 0.5% premium to the cash market.

If the futures are at a premium to the cash, they can be considered expensive and should be sold. If they are at a discount, they are cheap and can be bought.

The choice of 0.5% as a measure of excessive premium or discount is arbitrary, the system works just as well if you use 0.1% or 1%.

It is not necessary, to put on a directly hedging trade in the opposite direction at the same time. The invisible hand, the magician of all stochastic outcome, makes this trading method work.

b) Automatic Exit
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/automatic.html

The automatic 2.5 percent trading system is about an automatical exit when the stock hits either a 2.5% gain or a 2.5% loss. The entry signal can be a breakout of a trading range, a swing back after a downturn, a news event, a crossing of moving averages, the break of a line of resistance or support or whatever cyclical signal you may imagine. But it can be a counter cyclical entry signal too, like a line of support or resistance which seems to hold.

After entering the market in what seems to be an asymmetrical chance which skews the ubiquitous symmetry of chances of 50:50 in your favor, you simply would enter 2 sell orders 2.5% above and below the entry price. The exact percentage can be adjusted to the particular stock or market.

Interestingly the offset hasn't necessarily to be the same in both directions. E.g. 4% above and 5% below may work too. This way the higher sell point can be adjusted to match a line of resistance and the lower sell point can equal a new signal for breaking the next line of support, which otherwise would be a sell signal triggering a short trade itself.

c) Buy Bargain Stop Hold Long
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/buy-bargain.html

The key to investment success is:

- To buy when share prices are at bargain levels when some catalysator for a possible starting trend like fundamental news shows up
- To take losses quickly when it becomes clear a purchase will not be a winner IMMEDIATELY.
- To hold profitable positions as long as possible.

d) Coiled Spring Range Breakout Stop
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/coiled-spring.html

Taking advantage of the big event and exploding volatility

This trade is put on before some big event known beforehand like economic or FED news, earnings reports etc by placing two orders into the market before the open, one to buy and one to sell. The buy is placed above the sell so when one is filled, the other is left in place to become the stop loss.

The basis behind this range technique is to take advantage of contractions in market volatility to create ideal entry points, which act as coiled springs when the market regains its volatility and breaks out. These contractions frequently are referred to as a volatility squeeze, markets are strongly volatile but experience a day with a small trading range in anticipation of the following day's report or event.

This trade depends upon volatility contractions to execute entries and expansions to execute exits. The contracted volatility, the trading range, acts as a shield against randomly triggering one of your stop orders.

e) Concentration
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/concentration.html

For day trading you have to concentrate on very few stocks, for instance 5 to 10. Of course that does not mean that you can't change this set from day to day. Some day traders have there standard set, some others like to watch the current hot momentum stocks.

On the other hand there are traders who scan all day long the whole
market with watching late breaking news or following daytrading room chat. There are even scanner programs sifting through thousands of stocks trying to catch entry signals all over the board minute for minute.

To take the idea of concentration to an extreme, select only one stock, which has a decent trend and fundamental growth potential and try to get on a long term trend with daytrading techniques, meaning apply a hard entry stop loss and try repeatedly.

f) Concentration And Exchange
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/concentration-0.html

Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson noted that John Maynard Keynes once came up with a similar insight: "Really, you should buy one stock at any one time. The best one going. And when it's no longer that, replace it by the new best."

g) Cut Losses Ride Winners
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/cut-losses.html

"You are working too hard trying to EARN money trading. It doesn't work that way. You STEAL it. You place a bet, and renege on it when you don't like the outcome. When you do like the outcome, you say self-righteously I WANT SOME MORE"

This is probably the best explanation I have heard of "cutting losses and
letting profits ride"

h) Enter Automatically Feel Good
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/enter-automatically.html

When I do a lot of trades I am experiencing minimal adrenaline rush. It is when I only do a few trades that I get really tense, heart pumping etc. One book I read advised the following system:

1. Identify opportunity
2. Take action automatically
3. Feel good about the trade

This is what I do. By trading a lot I am teaching myself to execute automatically. I feel this is critical because I have lost way more money on trades that I identified but failed to enter than on ones I entered and had to stop out

i) Enter High Eckhardt
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/enter-high.html

If you make a bad trade and you have money management you are really not in much trouble. However, if you miss a good trade there is nowhere to turn. If you miss good trades with any regularity you're finished. For example, let's say the market moves rapidly through your buying zone and you miss it, you miss your buy signal and instead wait for a retracement to maybe buy cheaper. But, the market just keeps going higher and higher and never retraces. Now what do you do? There's a great temptation to reason that now it's too high to buy. If you buy it now you'll have an initiation price that's too high? No, the initiation price simply won't have the kind of significance you suppose it will have after the trade is made. You can't miss these trades. Trading systems force discipline to make sure these trades are not missed.

Suppose two traders, A and B, who are alike in most respects except the amount of money they have. Suppose A has 10% less money but he initiates a trade first. He gets in earlier than B. By the time B puts the trade on, the two traders have exactly the same equity. The best course of action has to be the same for both of these traders now. Mind you, these traders have very different entry prices. What this means is that once an initiation is made, it does not matter at all for subsequent decisions what the entry price was. It does not matter. Once you have made an initiation, what your initiation price was has no relevance. The trader must literally trade as though he doesn't know what his initiation price is.

William Eckhardt

j) Longterm Leaps
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/longterm.html

Our long term investing strategy is simple. Find the stocks that will dominate their markets and invest for the long term.

The Hager System is simplicity in action. Buy the long term portfolio stocks we select and combine those selections with he LEAPS portfolios we feature.

The best part of all is that all the leverage comes without resorting to the risk of using margin. Whether you want to add a little or a lot of this supercharged LEAPS performance is really up to you.

While the Hager System itself is simplicity in action, it's knowing which stocks to put into the system that is key to it's success.

Fred Hager
fredhager.com

k) Long Time Switching
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/long-time.html

Investors who held the Nasdaq Composite for just the second six months of each year since the Index's inception have outperformed investors who just bought and hold the index by more than 40 times.

l) Low PE
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/low-pe.html

GeneM: I ran a number of portfolios designed off Graham's simple low p/e and high dividend approach for years. It proved to out perform all the indices year after year. Still the best way to go for the long term equity money IMHO.

m) Moving Average Day Trading
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/moving-average.html

You can make an excellent living trading 300 AMAT or any other high volume highly volatile technology stock in a daytrading account. Just set up moving averages on the 2 min chart and follow them long and short

n) One Pattern For a Living
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/one-pattern.html

Focus

All you need is one pattern to make a living! Learn first to specialize in
doing one thing well.

Linda Bradford Raschke

o) Rebalancing
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/rebalancing.html

There is a simple strategy that has averaged more than 30% annually for more than ten years. No hype, no options or commodities. Just buying 5 large cap stocks and rebalancing your portfolio on a quarterly basis. Can you imagine that?

You can booster this strategy with choosing growth stocks which are leaders in their industries and industries with long term trends. At its best such a secular trend is a fresh one, so that you expect it to last many years to come.

p) Relative Strength
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/relative.html

Buy only a stock that is relatively strong compared to the broader market. Sell when it becomes weaker. Even better, replace it with the strongest one then. What timeframe to use? One month!

q) Risk Chance Gain Loss Asymmetric Behavior
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/risk-chance.html

Traders tend to fall prey to their wish to win. They overestimate the value of having this time a winning trade vs hitting sometimes big.

George Soros: It doesn't matter how often you are right or wrong - it only matters how much you make when you are right, versus how much you lose when you are wrong.

Someone else called this the Babe Ruth Effect. Few home runs can compensate for many strikouts. His lifetime batting average was only 0.342.

Psychologists Tversky and Kahneman: People choose a sure gain over a lottery with an expected better gain, but shun a sure loss over a lottery with a worse expectation.

William Eckhardt: People take profits, but gamble with their losses. Amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals by taking small
profits.

Old market wisdom which directly results in only a few big winning trades and many small losses: Ride your winners, cut your losers

Trend Followers who run automated trading systems win only on average 40% of the time.

r) Simple Strong Stock Strategy
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/simple-strong.html

The simple things are always what work best, look for a trend and a pullback, or look for the strongest stock when the market pulls back.

s) Stoploss Trade Management
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/stoploss-0.html

It's so easy to not become a bagholder when you start practicing trade management and limit loss through the use of stops. If you get stopped out, you were on the wrong side of the trade anyway.

You don't want to use stops because you think market makers grab your stops? Wrong, it's just all in your head! The market doesn't care where you want it to be, you have to go with the market.

t) Support Resistance Pivot Swing Break
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/support-resistance.html

Negated swing trading system or entering the break of a wave after a pivot point.

A highly successful trading pattern is to find situations where price is violating a pivot point convincingly, as there are professional traders and automated trading systems out there watching the markets like hawks to find exactly these hot spots of price action. If the price breaks through the line of a just successfully confirmed support or resistance after having started going the other way, serious traders become active. This is one of the big trading signals for said professionals. All experienced traders, be they trading for themselves or for banks, financial institutions or funds, adhere to the concept of support and resistance. If this concept is violated it signals them strongly to do the opposite.

This price violation can come as a breakout after a false breakout at the other side of a trading range or as a disruption of a turning of the wave. You have to do sort of negative swing trading. The moment ordinary swing traders move in, the wave breaks and the trade begins to look not only bad but catastrophic for them, is the signal for the successful trader to bet on the opposite direction. In such situations even market makers, the ones who normally increase market oscillations by driving prices artificially up and then suddenly turn the tides by selling at top prices and ride the wave down and vice versa - all in all a counter cyclic behavior - jump with market orders into such a wave disruption.

One special trick of market makers to get out of a position is to initiate the swing not to ride it up, but to dump a wrongheaded position into its very beginnings. Chances are good that there is some more fundamental reason for them to do so. A disrupted swing can have of course any other cause like e.g. breaking news or a market which has simply more potential for the other direction. The power of this trading pattern lies in the combination of strong thrust and further potential.

There are these scenarios of a safe trade, a trade with a very good win to loss probability ratio. But you need to have discipline in order to enter only the market when price action looks good, when there is a real trading signal, a high probability pattern with an expected gain much bigger than the possible loss and not when you think you need the next trading chance.

u) Technology Trend
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/technology.html

Find the next major technology trend and then find the best company in this trend.

The most successful technology stock investments all have one thing in common:

the companies became big players as the markets they were in became big.

Would Microsoft have been so successful if PCs had cost $10,000 each?What really made Microsoft so successful was the marketplace they came to dominate.

They rode the market's extraordinary growth curve, and exploited their position along the way. Mr. Gates and Mr. Ballmer are great executives, but make no mistake: it was the PC market explosion that made Microsoft the giant it is.

To find the next Microsoft, and that is what it is all about, you should first try to find the next major trend. By thinking on the highest level about where technology is going, and how an individual company will fit in that trend, you stand the best chance of reaping the highest rewards.

v) Warren Buffet Long Term
http://www.visoracle.com/swingtrend/warren-buffet-0.html

Warren Buffet, "In the short term the market acts as a voting machine. In the long term as a weighing machine". More is made in the sitting than in the thinking.
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