The Star Global Malaysians Forum

nikzafri-11 January 2006 at 9:48pm wrote:

Someone very wise** once told me (in 1998) - during my 'downfall' (** - Ybhg Tuan Haji Ahmad bin Che Din of Taman Merdeka, Selama, Perak - my mentor) 1. Invest in Gold 2. Invest in Agricultural Products Not long after that, the Honourable Tun Dr. Mahathir started to talk about prospects of 'Dinar Emas and Gold Coins'. In 2005, YAB Prime Minister, Dato Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi gave further and stronger emphasis on expanding the prospects of Biotechnology (focus : agricultural). It's not something to be too serious about or 'hitting the panic button' scenario but it's something worth pondering. ----------------------------- Today, as reported in the Star : http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/1/11/nation/13075088&sec=nation Rising value of gold makes it a good investment By EDWARD RAJENDRA edward@thestar.com.my KLANG: Step aside, athletes. Businessmen are going for gold these days. Federal and Selangor Indian Goldsmith Association adviser N.P. Raman believe that businessmen and cash-rich people were purchasing gold for investment. “It is business logic to include gold in a diversified investment portfolio. Gold can act as a hedge against inflation. Keeping your assets in gold is sound economic sense,” he said. Yesterday, the gold price stood at RM2,090 an ounce, compared with RM1,617 on June 5 last year. Raman said that for those with cash, gold was a good buy as long-term savings, and added that gold coins would be a better choice. “A person who buys gold coins now would get the market price of the day when he decides to sell it,” he said. Going by the market trend now, Raman said, the price of gold was expected to escalate. “Right now, it is about RM70 a gram, and is expected to hit RM100 per gram in two to three months,” he said. Raman operates from Jalan Tengku Kelana, where scores of goldsmiths are located. Most of them are worried that middle-income people, who form the bulk of their customers, will not be able to afford gold now. “For Indians, the period between mid-January and March 15 is an auspicious time for weddings. It is a time for a roaring business but now couples are resorting to simple three-pound gold chains instead of nine pounds. Their buying power has weakened,” he said. Nik It's not something to be too serious about or 'hitting the panic button' scenario but it's something worth pondering.

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Here it comes again :

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/2/3/business/13290549&sec=business

Gold hits 25-year high in London

LONDON: Gold rose to a 25-year high in London as gains in crude oil prices increased speculation that inflation will accelerate, eroding the value of assets such as stocks and bonds.

Gold rose 18% last year in London as investors bought the metal as a hedge against record oil prices stoking inflation.

Oil rose before the United Nations' atomic watchdog meets today to consider referring Iran's nuclear programme to the Security Council, which may impose sanctions the second largest exporter in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).

nikzafri - 02 January 2006 at 5:41pm wrote:
http://www.globalmalaysians.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=465&PN=1
3) ...Have a 'cushion to fall on' in the case of inflation...

“Rising oil prices will continue to keep gold prices buoyant this year, as it's likely to lead to inflation,” Ross Norman, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, said in an interview yesterday.

Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as US$3.85, or 0.7%, to US$573.20 an ounce, the highest since January 1981. It traded at US$572.99 at 10:09am London time.

The situation in Iran was a “double whammy” for the gold market, Norman said.

“It increases geopolitical tension as well as oil prices, both of which are good for gold,” he added.

Crude oil for March delivery rose as much as 63 US cents, or 1%, to US$67.19 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

World gold prices are likely to rise to US$610 an ounce by March/April, but this is unlikely to deter Indians from importing the same amount of the precious metal in 2006 as last year, according to the head of the country's leading bullion trade body.

Mukul Sonawala, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, said on Wednesday that gold could see a small correction before it rose again.

He said a price of US$540 per ounce would provide a buying opportunity.

“There is inherent strength in the market,” Sonawala told Reuters. “All the fundamental factors are pointing to that.” – Agencies
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Posted: 24 February 2007 at 3:34pm

My Gold Fact Sheet

Gold price indicates:

a) inherent value
b) quoted currency relative strength

On Supply/Demand

- the price will always be stable and doesn't seem to be much effected by even reduction in supply or in net selling by the bank,

- demand - be it raw material or investment) still going high - (you can simply based on sales of jewellery - ask my wife)

- supply - production results, hedging by mining companies, scrap/net sales by bank -all still going steady

Investment

As Portfolio diversifier. All over the world, calculation is based on standard
returns correlation/volatility.

And of course - Gold is a Reserve Asset.

What? There's more?

- inflation seem to have not much effect on Gold as well,
- Gold is all time purchasing power indicator,
- Gold's liquidity power is guaranteed,
- in case anything happen (even market crash), gold will come to the rescue
- provide confidence, insurance, assurance and security (try keeping them, or perhaps buy a genuine Rolex at least, you'll know)

END OF LINE....

Agriculture

(Search the NET..you'll know)

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 27 July 2006 at 8:11pm

TYPICAL INDICATORS TO FORECAST ECONOMY

Indicators

a. Prime Interest Rate/Interbank Offerred Rate
b. Mortgage Interest Rate
c. Treasury Yields
d. GDP
e. Crude Oil and Gold Price
f. Unemployment Rate (some look deeper into crime rate)
g. Inflation Rate
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Quoting Howard G. Schaefer - In his book 'Economic Trend Analysis for Executives and Investors', Chapter 1 - Introduction

With so many factors to be considered, interpreting economic data is a daunting task. Indeed, attempting to interpret economic data presented in the form of millions, billions, and trillions of dollars is enough to discourage most people. Nevertheless, forecasting economic conditions is an essential element of sound business and investment decisions. To make these decisions executives and investors need a simple and timely method of understanding and evaluating economic data.

Graphs and charts have become very popular for simplifying information. Trend analysis is one of the principal means used to convey economic data to business, investors, and government. That is, statistical data are plotted on a chart so the reader can observe trends. As an example, the index of industrial production for the month of February 1992 was reported as 107.2, representing a 0.4% increase over the preceding January and a 1.4% increase from the preceding year

A published chart showing the trend indicated that the nation's industrial production was improving. But it did not address whether the trend would continue. Executives and investors need to make decisions based on future expectations, not just past performances. Without a consideration of the many factors that affect economic performance, a trend line has limited uses.

A newer technique called relationship analysis provides a much better understanding of economic data and future economic trends than trend analysis. Relationship analysis compares one set of economic data to another to determine whether there is a consistent relationship between the two sets of data that explains current economic conditions and indicates future economic trends. One principal advantage of relationship analysis is that the information is conveyed without the long delay for accumulating the economic data necessary to spot the trend.
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Adapted from the original Posting in The Star Global Malaysians Forum
- Posted: 31 July 2006 at 5:32pm

ECONOMIC FORECASTING - WHAT'S IN IT FOR ME?
(Nik Zafri's version of Forecasting Economy for Dummies)

Most people are scared listening or even coming across economical terminologies. Indeed they (the terminologies) are not ‘laymen user-friendly’. Thus, most of us tend to 'shy away' especially those in small businesses not knowing the consequences of ignoring the current facts/reality of economy. To worsen situation, even the typical accounting tasks such as cash-flow monitoring has been ignored.

Don’t worry, it’s nothing too technical - in fact even economists in many occassions fail to do accurate economical forecasts and most of them end up arguing to defend their hypotheses.

Here’s some simple indicators (what YOU should know – the technical explanations are for the economists to worry about) :

a) GDP – most popular one – to you – don’t wait for the annual results but monitor the implementation of target, if you see in 5-6 months – it’s stil negative, then buckle up.

b) Consumer Price Index – to you – it tells you products/services – price/fee (fluctuations as well) etc. You could almost prophecise that you might be in trouble when you found out that you’re paying MORE than before.

c) Interest rate (it’s rising)– to you - it tells the level of ‘troubleness’ you’re encountering especially if you have a loan to settle.

d) Retail sales – to you – it tells you about your purchasing power, your spending habit, your saving habit, your confidence – you will know or feel these things when you see the word bonus, tax (cut/raise) etc.

e) Employment – to you – well, I guess you’re smart enough to figure this one out. Only two quick tips (out of many) – VSS and unemployed graduates.

The hidden ones are political stability (which you’re also smart enough to know) or 'that look' the traders are giving you when you ask for discounts!

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 24 February 2007 at 6:52pm

brooklyn_3p3 wrote:

Hello. I was wondering, how effective is it to set a sell limit on a stock, by that I mean, telling your broker that if the stock reaches a certain level they should sell it? I always wanted to know how to make money in the stock market - without the agonizing stress and uncertainty. Please tell me how is that possible.

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Nik Zafri's Response

Here's an interesting article that you should be reading. I've taken part of it from the original source

1. As time goes by. If you're going to invest in stocks, keep in mind a trend is just a trend. In short, don't overreact by trying to time the market. While past performance is not a predictor of future returns, historical data shows holding stocks for the long run really cuts the risk. According to a recent study by Chicago stock research firm Ibbotson Associates, for all three-year holding periods since 1946, stock returns were positive 93 percent of the time, based on the S&P 500 Index.

Take this hypothetical illustration: If you invested $1,000 every year for the past 34 years and reinvested all dividends in the S&P 500 Index, your $34,000 investment would have earned $325,771 if, with the worst timing imaginable, you had invested at the market high of the year. Of course, if you had perfect timing, investing your $1,000 at the market low, you would have earned $365,880. The difference between the extremes? A mere 12 percent; that's less than 1 percent annually. As a long-term investor, you avoid the aggravation of trying to get out at the top and in at the bottom of the market's cycles.

2. The bears wore red; the bulls wore blue. As a rule, the blue-chip stocks of large, well-
established multinational companies are less risky than the stocks of small, little known, single-product firms. When the markets drop, investors often see a "flight to quality," with money going where investors feel safest: the stocks of big companies. No stock, large or small, guarantees investor protection, but large companies are less prone to sudden plunges and are often the first to rebound when the markets begin to turn up again.

3. Don't be misinformed. Get your research from a reliable source--crystal balls and fishing buddies don't count. In-depth research involves the big picture, including political, economic and demographic factors as well as specifics of individual companies.

Technical analysis--using charts and computer programs to identify price trends--provides other information to help you make informed decisions. Base your research on facts, not feelings, hunches or tips.

4. Round up some unusual suspects. Smart investors use overall asset allocation to ensure their portfolios include different classes of securities, such as stocks, bonds and cash. In addition, no stock portfolio should consist of just one or two companies. Diversification means building a multistock portfolio, including domestic and foreign holdings, blue-chip and OTC (over-the-counter) shares, as well as companies in different industries.

5. The start of a beautiful friendship. If you're a risk-ready investor, you keep your eye on several traditional measures of investment value, including price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, price-to-sales ratios and book values. All other things being equal, a stock selling for 60 times earnings is riskier than a stock selling for 10 times earnings. Growth stocks come from companies experiencing accelerated earnings growth; they often sell at high P/Es because investors expect that higher earnings will result in higher share prices. Value stocks are generally shares of long-established companies, often those familiar as household names with predictable long-term earnings growth rates. As you build a diversified portfolio, emphasize both value and growth stocks to protect it from excessive risk.

6. Play it again, Sam. Ups and downs in the market make you queasy, but you still have a financial goal you'd like to reach? Dollar cost averaging is a simple strategy used by investors to add to their holdings by investing a fixed amount of money at set intervals, such as every month or every quarter. This strategy doesn't assure a profit or protect against a loss in the case of a market meltdown, but it can help smooth out the effects of stock price fluctuations. Best of all, you can start with a small initial investment and make additional small, periodic investments in managed accounts.

The principle is simple: When the price of shares is lower, your investment dollars will buy more shares. When the price is higher, you'll buy fewer shares, but the prices of the shares you bought when prices were lower will have increased. The key here is sticking with the program.

Over the long term, assuming that stock prices continue to rise, the average cost of shares purchased through a dollar cost averaging plan will usually be lower than the shares' average price. How? Say you plan to invest $500 quarterly. If you make a purchase at $10 per share, for example, your $500 investment gets you 50 shares. If the share price rises to $20 during the ensuing quarter, your next purchase gets you 25 shares. After two quarters, your hypothetical purchases would total 75 shares bought at $15 each but with a lower average cost of $13.33 per share.

Because this strategy involves periodic investments, consider your financial ability and willingness to continue buying through periods of high and low prices.

7. I came for the stop orders. A stop order is an order to buy or sell a security at the market price once the security has traded at what is known as the stop price. If you're worried about market declines, consider putting protective sell stop orders in place. A stop order to sell is always set below the current market price and is usually designed to protect a profit or limit the loss on a security that you hold at a higher price. It works like this: Say you bought a stock at $40 per share, and now its price has increased to $60 per share. A sell stop at $50 means if your shares decline to $50, your order could possibly lock in a $10 profit, not including commissions.

While this may sound like an easy strategy, there is, naturally, more to it. The risk is that this type of stop order may be executed several points below the stop price because of market orders placed before it. These market orders could radically change your order's execution price. To be more certain of the price at which your order will go off, consider a stop-limit order. This kind of stop order becomes a sell order only when the specific stop price is reached. Unfortunately, the stop-limit order carries the risk of missing the market altogether since the specific price may never occur. In our above example, say you set a sell stop-limit order of $50, which is reached but delayed because of market orders ahead of it. If these market orders cause the stock price to fall below the $50 stop-limit, your stock will not get sold and you'll still own it at whatever price it reaches.

Setting stop orders is tricky business because sell orders can be triggered by temporary volatility. Cautious investors move stop orders up as stock prices rise, but the trick is to avoid setting them too close or too far from the price of the stock in question. Consult your financial advisor for more information on how best to use stop orders.

Volatile markets are the ones that separate the investors from the speculators, those who panic from those who profit. Whatever kind of investing you decide to do, make sure you and your portfolio are risk-ready

My special thanks to Tuan Haji Ahmad bin Che Din, Taman Merdeka, Selama, Perak Darul Ridzuan, Malaysia

The 14 Golden Rules for Malaysian Business
(Version 02-May, 2006) - By : Nik Zafri (V1-2002)

(KNOWLEDGABLE) - Possess sufficient knowledge, skills/competencies, abilities, experience, exposures and qualifications. All these criterions must be geared towards developing result-oriented system.

(HELPING HAND) - A lending hand to interested parties - associates, partners, staff and general public (including competitors) related to the business. This include sharing new business methodologies through training/ briefing/ conversation/ meeting/ coaching etc. etc. with a perspective of building a better business network in the long run. Becoming responsible corporate citizens by helping the needies (social/welfare activities) and susceptible to the surroundings (including general public)

(CORRUPTION-FREE) - Free from graft of any form. Bribery destroy businesses in a short time and it is also against religious beliefs and the laws.

(EFFECTIVE MARKETING) - Approach the market ethically upon seeing prospects. Diligence and hardworking without giving up easily. Never say 'NO' to customers requests or enquiries. Form up smart partnership(s) or JV(s) with more experienced parties if required.

(NO WASTAGES) - Do not waste time/money on prospective clients/sub-contractors/suppliers at entertainment centres/nightspots or going on tour - vacation in order to win certain tenders (s) or as one of the 'implied criterons' for tender(s) award. Wastages should also be avoided in terms of quality costs (scrap, duplicate activities, wastages etc. etc.) and where practicable, recycle. Apart from the above, meetings/discussions which are time- consuming and unproductive must be minimised including to experiment or test-run a certain 'blue print' or system which is still theoritical. Finally, negative habits such as loafing, truancy, too much talking, spending too long of a time at canteens/cafeteria/stalls should be avoided.

(VISIONARY) - having long term strategic plans in the context of mission, objective and goal. All planning should consider measurement, implementation, current financial status, human resources, technology and business suitability. Expecting potential problems proactively may prevent future pitfalls.

(EXCELLENCE) - excellence and having own business branding without 'xeroxing' or too much influenced by others/competitors. Being proud of own business (even how small or how big) without inferiority.

(PRACTICAL) - Putting all effort towards achieving the objectives and goals being set-up and not simply developing hypothesis or lip-service. Having business-'ownership' feeling, leadership and ability to work independently. These include the process of critical decision making under any circumstances. Responsible, committed and accountable on duties being executed.

(TRANSPARENCY) - adopting transparency in matters/current development pertaining business that need to be made known to interested parties (client, stakeholders, general public, consumers etc. etc.)

(SUSCEPTIBLE) - caring and susceptible towards the volatile changes in the requirements (specification/trend) of interested parties.

(TENDENCY TOWARDS CHANGE) - Readiness to embrace change or upgrade the quality of services and products according to the latest trends regarding new knowledge, technology and method. These include willingness to allocate additional investment(s) aimed towards continual improvement and long term returns.

(LISTENING TO OPINIONS AND CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM) - becoming a good listener to views and (constructive) criticisms from interested parties as they may become catalyst to business growth.

(NOT DEPENDING ON RUMOURS) - not depending solely on rumours in the course of running business. This include unverified/unreliable tips of market shares/stocks (known to fluctuate)

(QUALITY) - OVERALL - implementation of policy, procedures, standards/codes of practice, process, product/services, resources - technology, training, development of management/staff/workers, customers, teamwork, welfare, occupational health and safety/environmental management. Instilling discipline (or self-instilled disciplines) in all aspects including subordination