ALERT DON'T FALL FOR UNLICENSED INVESTMENT - A REMINDER BY NIK ZAFRI

Many individuals remain unaware of the necessity for proper licensing from regulatory bodies when engaging in trading activities related to finance, funds, shares, derivatives, and precious metals. Both individuals and the companies they operate must obtain appropriate licenses.

For detailed information, please consult the Capital Markets and Services Act 2007 (CMSA) administered by the Securities Commission. Further reference can also be made to The Banking and Financial Institutions Act, 1989 or Companies Act 1965.

In the case of Gold, Bullion, or FOREX trading, refer to the Exchange Control Act 1953 (ECA 1953), which falls under the direct jurisdiction of Bank Negara Malaysia.

It is crucial to stay informed about these regulations to prevent direct or indirect involvement in illicit activities such as money laundering (The Anti-Money Laundering, Anti-Terrorism Financing and Proceeds of Unlawful Activities Act 2001 - AMLA) or even bribery (Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission Act 2009).

Avoid seeking loopholes in these regulations. Exercise caution and skepticism, especially when confronted with photos, screenshots of bank accounts, Get Rich Quick Schemes, unlicensed Multi-Level Marketing/Pyramid Schemes, or any other dubious schemes.

Despite current challenges, refrain from adding unnecessary burdens that may lead to suffering for yourself and your loved ones. Stay vigilant and adhere to regulatory guidelines to ensure a secure and lawful financial environment.

WHAT'S DRIVING GOLD?

(A)

Cause :

Growth in World Money Supply

Years of easy monetary policies by central banks and now the trillions of dollars in economic stimulus to fight the global recession

Effect :

Inflationary Pressures

Excess cash in marketplace eventually tends to bid up prices for goods and services

Possible Ramifications

Declining Confidence in Paper Money

The prospect of inflation lowers confidence in Paper money a a store of value leading may investors to buy gold to preserve their wealth

(B)

Cause :

Volatile Stocks and Oil Prices

After several bull market years, stock and commodity markets turned down dramatically in 200 as the global economy slid into recession. While markets have partially recovered from their low, they remain volatile and many investors remain focused on capital preservation

Effect

Safe Haven Appeal

With other hard assets like real estate and commodities losing value, there was a revived appreciation of gold as a safe haven for investors seeking to protect themselves during difficult times.

Possible Ramifications

Increased Demand for Gold

The recession of 2008 created a large new class of gold investors. The strong demand exerted by this group, along with traditional gold buyers, drained the global inventory of gold coins and gold bars, thus driving up the price of bullion at a time of shrinking worldwide production.

(C)

Cause :

China

Gold has long been prized in China, which is one of the world's largest producers and consumers. Increasingly China's gold market has become more liberalized

Effect :



Trade Surplus

China has a huge trade surplus with the U.S. and Europe that generates vast quantitites of foreign currency. China also has one of the world's highest savings rates.

Possible Ramifications

China buys a considerable amount of U.S. Government debt, but it is diversifying its reserves by increasing its holdings of gold. In addition, China is pursuing investments to recycle its dollars into natural resource projects.

(D)

Cause :

Low Gold Price in 90s

After climbing as high as $850 an ounce in 1980, gold dropped as low as $252 an ounce in 1999.

Effect :

Cuts in Exploration

Low prices and environmental controls discouraged mining companies from spending the money to find new supplies of gold

Possible Ramifications

Falling Production

The lack of investment during the low-price years means new supplies of gold have not kept pace with gold demand

(E)

Cause :

Low Interest Rate

When real interest rates are low many investors turn away from paper assets with declining value and instead turn towar assets with real value, like gold.

Effect :

Hedging Curtailed

When interest rates are low, there is little incentive for hedging. As a result, gold is removed from the market.

Possible Ramifications

A decline in hedging shrinks short-term gold supply, creating a market imbalance during a time of escalating demand.

(F)

Cause :


Credit Crisis

The U.S. economy has been hurt by tighter liquidity associated with heavy losses in the key housing and financial sectors

Effect :

Interest Rate Cuts by Fed

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates effectively to zero in an effort to lift the economy out of recession

Possible Ramifications

Weaker U.S. Dollar

Rate cuts drive down returns for currency investors. Many of those investors will buy gold as an alternative reserve asset, thus driving up demand.

How are we doing today? Mr. World Economics?
By Nik Zafri - Oct 7, 2009

Ok..to start with - Oil (Asia)...Source NYME - November benchmark crude up 63 cents - $71.51 by 12.30 pm and contract settled at $70.88 - a rise of 47 cents. For US (Dow Jones gaining 1.4%), it's the best achievement and a good sign for prospects of more corporate profits.

A sign of recovery? Perhaps - Oil markets & equities are being driven by this recovery.

There is another paradox though - if crude inventories fall, oil prices may rise further and price will fall if crude stocks rise. I hope if this happens, the strong financial market will back it up.

Global Economic Stimulus Package - I'm glad that our global economy now can withstand higher borrowing cost - despite there are talks about interest hike yet world Governments spending and offers of low interest rates are now emerging.

Next - Inflation vs interest rate hikes. Some countries in the Asia-Pacific Region expected a building trend of inflation (Australia recently raise their key interest rates (official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%) - which is OK to them) due to recent hike 'Downunder' - there is a possibility that 'everyone else' will follow this trend.

Thus, if there is a plan to raise interest...I can understand why (we must be fair to the Banking and Financial instititutions as well) but please monitor the inflation possibilty..if there is such sign (in Malaysia specifically), please control it.

Bonds - Reports came to me that in some countries - Traders are buying after the fall. Yields are retreating (on the benchmark one decade bond yield now closing lower - During the early deals, it's rising due to lacking of buyback news - something to look at before )

Before I move on : Anyone heard of the so called secret talks between the Gulf states? I heard stories about China and Russia are replacing oil trading with dollar which may have caused the decline is USD?

Next - USD vs Gold vs other currency - I think everyone is noticing that USD is falling against major currency. Thus gold are rallying on the bullion markets and silver surges higher. (Dollar is now the 'arc nemesis' to gold = Gold is used for safe hedge against inflation whenever the Dollar is down)