Diesel price volatility likely to persist amid global uncertainty

                                                               Photo By Bloomberg

 Full Link to the News :

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2026/03/27/diesel-price-volatility-likely-to-persist-amid-global-uncertainty/

Friday, March 27th, 2026 at News

by SHAUQI WAHAB ( Mohd Shauqi Mohamad Abdul Wahab )

DIESEL prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term, driven by global crude oil fluctuations, exchange rates and geopolitical tensions. QHSEL Consultancy Sdn. Bhd. Principal Consultant and Executive Director Nik Zafri bin Abdul Majid said Malaysia’s current pricing mechanism, shaped by subsidy rationalisation and the targeted diesel subsidy programme, has improved fiscal sustainability, even as market-linked pricing exposes consumers and businesses to global volatility. “Price stability ultimately depends on global crude oil prices, exchange rates, and geopolitical risks. “Stabilisation typically occurs only when global supply conditions normalise which do not look good for now,” he said to The Malaysian Reserve (TMR).

Nik Zafri (picture) said while an extreme oil price spike to US$200 per barrel remains unlikely, such a scenario would present mixed outcomes for Malaysia, benefiting export revenues but increasing inflationary pressures and subsidy burdens.

He also highlighted that sustained high diesel prices could reshape consumer and business behaviour, particularly within logistics and commercial fleets, while gradually strengthening the case for electric vehicles (EV) over time. “Higher fuel prices generally improve the economic case for EVs. However, EV adoption in Malaysia still depends on charging infrastructure, affordability and consumer confidence,” he added. Nik Zafri said any meaningful shift towards EVs would likely be gradual rather than immediate.

Meanwhile, Universiti Kuala Lumpur (UniKL) Business School Associate Professor Dr Aimi Zulhazmi Abdul Rashid (picture) viewed that rising diesel prices, shaped by current market forces and geopolitical tensions, are expected to push inflation higher while increasing the overall cost of living.

He pointed to projections by Fitch Ratings, which estimate oil prices could reach US$128 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026 and average around US$100 for the year, contributing to both domestic and global inflationary pressures.

“The current diesel price is the reflection of the market forces at present. Whether it will reach US$200 per barrel is anyone’s guess,” he said.

Aimi Zulhazmi said global inflation is projected to rise to 4.0% in 2026 amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions.

He added that higher fuel costs are already cascading through the economy, with increased transportation and logistics expenses translating into higher prices for goods, food, and housing, while industries from aviation to construction begin adjusting their pricing structures.

“The domino effect of the diesel prices is certainly profound,” he pointed out.

He said some diesel vehicle owners are considering selling their vehicles or reducing usage, while others are exploring a shift to EVs or plug-in hybrids, particularly in urban areas.

Therefore, he viewed that stronger policy support, including incentives and expanded charging infrastructure, will be crucial to accelerate EV adoption and ease the burden on consumers.

Diesel hike forces 4X4 community to scale back activities

The rise in diesel prices is placing significant pressure on 4×4 communities, with higher operating costs forcing groups to reassess the frequency, distance and scale of recreational, training and humanitarian activities

The situation subsequently dampened sentiment among enthusiasts, with many anticipating reduced participation and ownership as the overall cost of living rises.

4×4 instructor Suhaimy Mohamed Sunar (picture) shared that the increase is also expected to dampen new ownership and participation, while potentially limiting outreach efforts to vulnerable communities such as flood victims and Orang Asli settlements.

“The increase in diesel prices has had a direct impact on the operating costs of 4×4 groups. In some cases, the frequency of activities and travel distances have had to be adjusted to ensure the sustainability of operations,” he shared with TMR.

Despite these challenges, the community remains committed to its social and humanitarian roles, adapting through cost-saving measures such as optimising logistics, focusing on local programmes, and seeking greater sponsorship support.

Meanwhile, 4×4 event organiser and Explorer Outfitter owner Thomas Foo described the impact as severe.

“We are in a state of shock as never ever before this has happened. It is just a very bad sentiment and very depressing, so we will cut down anything to do with corporate social responsibility (CSR), relief or travel,” he said.

He added that higher fuel costs will inevitably reduce outreach efforts while also discouraging interest in 4×4 training and activities.

Looking ahead, the 4X4 community expects that sponsorship support will become increasingly important to sustain activities, as operators and participants struggle to absorb higher diesel costs.

“Petrol prices can increase a bit to help cushion diesel prices as logistics is the lifeline of everything for the economy. The chain effect will impact all Malaysians,” he warned.

As for #Malaysians4Wheelers founder Amir Hamzah (picture), while activities will not stop entirely, groups are likely to reduce travel distances and scale down operations, particularly for charity missions that depend heavily on sponsorship support. “We are not going to stop the activities, but probably we might shorten or minimise the distance. This is one of the steps that we take on how to save the expenses,” he told TMR. He also opined that prolonged cost pressures could lead some owners to sell their vehicles, while others driven by passion will continue, although related costs such as training and spare parts are also expected to rise. The retail price of diesel in Peninsular Malaysia rose by 80sen to RM5.52 per litre, while prices in Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan remained unchanged at RM2.15 per litre from March 26 to April 1.

WATCHING THE MALAYSIAN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY (If high diesel/fuel prices skyrocketed)

High diesel or fuel prices can have significant knock-on effects on the construction industry, because the sector is highly dependent on fuel, logistics, and heavy machinery. Several impacts are likely:

1. Increase in Construction Costs

Most construction machinery, excavators, cranes, bulldozers, generators, and transport trucks runs on diesel. When diesel prices rise, equipment operating costs increase immediately. Contractors may face higher daily operating expenses, which can push up the overall project cost.

2. Rising Material Prices

Fuel prices affect logistics and transportation costs for materials such as cement, steel, aggregates, sand, and bricks. Since these materials often travel long distances from quarries, factories, or ports to construction sites, higher diesel prices can lead to price escalation across the supply chain.

3. Pressure on Contractor Margins

For projects with fixed-price contracts, contractors may struggle to absorb rising fuel and material costs. This can reduce profit margins and, in some cases, create financial stress for smaller contractors.

4. Project Delays or Renegotiations

If cost increases become substantial, contractors may request variation orders, price adjustments, or renegotiations. In extreme cases, projects may slow down or be delayed as stakeholders reassess budgets.

5. Impact on Property Development

Higher construction costs eventually translate into higher property prices. Developers may delay launches, reduce project scale, or redesign projects to control costs. This can affect housing affordability and property market activity.

6. Shift Toward Efficiency and Technology

On the positive side, sustained high fuel prices could push the industry toward greater efficiency, including:

- Improved project planning and logistics

- Adoption of energy-efficient equipment

- Greater use of prefabrication or Industrialised Building Systems (IBS)

- Exploration of electric or hybrid construction machinery in the future

Overall Impact

In summary, fuel price spikes can create a cost-push effect across the construction ecosystem, affecting contractors, developers, suppliers, and ultimately property buyers. The key challenge for the industry is managing cost volatility while maintaining project viability and timelines.

What Happens to Malaysia if Global Oil Prices Spike Due to War? (A Personal Perspective)

Geopolitical conflicts often trigger sharp increases in global oil prices. When supply chains are disrupted, energy-importing and exporting countries alike feel the impact. Malaysia, despite being an oil and gas producer, is not immune to these shocks.

In my personal opinion, here are several ways Malaysia may respond :

1. Adjusting Fuel Subsidies

Malaysia currently subsidises fuels such as RON95 petrol and diesel. If global oil prices surge, the government may temporarily increase subsidy spending to keep pump prices stable or delay subsidy rationalisation. Targeted subsidies focusing on B40 and M40 households may also be strengthened to protect vulnerable groups.

2. Using Oil Revenue

Higher oil prices can increase government revenue through dividends from PETRONAS. During high-price periods, larger dividends to the treasury can help finance subsidies or cost of living support programmes.

3. Automatic Pricing Mechanism

Malaysia manages fuel prices through the Automatic Pricing Mechanism (APM). This allows the government to absorb price increases via subsidies, cap retail prices temporarily, or adjust prices gradually. The aim is to prevent sudden inflation shocks.

4. Cost of Living Assistance

When fuel costs push inflation higher, the government may introduce direct aid programmes such as Sumbangan Tunai Rahmah to help households cope with rising expenses.

5. Strategic Energy Measures

Authorities may also strengthen long-term energy planning by increasing refinery utilisation, diversifying energy sources, and promoting efficiency. Institutions like Bank Negara Malaysia would monitor inflation and adjust monetary policy if necessary.

6. Temporary Fiscal Measures

The government may reduce certain taxes or provide targeted support to transport, logistics, agriculture, and fisheries to prevent higher fuel costs from pushing up food prices.

7. Why Malaysia Still Feels the Impact

Although Malaysia exports crude oil, it still imports refined fuel when domestic refining capacity is insufficient. Facilities such as the RAPID Refinery and Melaka Refinery support local supply, but imports often from hubs like Singapore remain necessary.

In addition, Malaysian crude is high-quality and often more profitable when sold internationally.

8. The Fiscal Balance

Higher oil prices bring both benefits and risks:

• Increased export revenue and PETRONAS dividends

• Higher subsidy costs and inflation pressures

Managing this balance becomes a key economic challenge for policymakers.

In short, Malaysia may benefit from higher oil revenues, but careful fiscal management is essential to protect households and maintain economic stability.

(Alas, this is just my personal opinion)

MONEYLENDING OR SCAM?

A friend of mine recently shared his experience of trying to obtain a loan from moneylenders after banks and other financial institutions were unable or unwilling to assist him.

When he attempted to report the matter to the Ministry, he received very little cooperation and was even advised to deal with it directly at the counter. However, despite making several attempts, the individuals over there denied any connection to the activities. What puzzled him further was that the same websites and contact numbers continued to operate actively, leaving him wondering why the matter had not been properly investigated or reported.

Based on his experience and so many others I saw online, I really do not understand how some so-called “licensed moneylenders” operate. Although they claim to be legitimate and registered, the borrowing methods they use often appear questionable and, in some cases, resemble tactics commonly associated with scams.

In Malaysia, licensed moneylenders are regulated under the Moneylenders Act 1951 and supervised by the Kementerian Perumahan dan Kerajaan Tempatan (KPKT). The law sets clear requirements on how loans should be offered and managed, including transparent loan agreements, regulated interest rates, and proper documentation. However, there have been instances where certain operators exploit their “licensed” status to gain public trust while applying questionable practices that may violate both the spirit and the provisions of the law.

Among the concerning practices sometimes reported are:

a) Requesting borrowers to transfer “processing fees” or deposits before a loan is approved.

b) Using aggressive or misleading advertising to lure financially vulnerable individuals.

c) Communicating primarily through informal messaging platforms rather than proper office channels.

d) Failing to provide a formal written loan agreement or clear explanation of interest calculations.

e) Imposing excessive charges that may contravene the limits permitted under the Moneylenders Act 1951.

Such practices raise serious concerns because a legitimate licensed moneylender should operate with transparency, clear contractual terms, and compliance with regulatory oversight. Borrowers should also verify the lender’s license through official channels such as the registry maintained by the Kementerian Perumahan dan Kerajaan Tempatan and be cautious of any arrangement that requires upfront payments or lacks proper documentation.

In essence, even when a lender claims to be licensed, the methods they use must still comply with the law. If the process appears irregular, opaque, or overly coercive, it may indicate misconduct that should be reported to the relevant authorities.

I sincerely hope that no one within the authorities are involved with such activities. The money belong to hardworking individuals losing them to moneylenders who prey on people’s desperation. I have also advised my friend to report the matter to the MACC.

ATTEMPT OF HACKING?

 A friend of mine recently requested a password reset for his Facebook account. The verification code was sent through WhatsApp. Without verifying the source carefully, he used the code and successfully changed his password. Despite the somewhat suspicious nature of the message, he was still able to access his Facebook account afterward.

A few days later, when he mentioned the incident to me, I advised him to reset the password again, this time using the verification code sent directly to his registered email address. I also recommended several precautionary steps: logging out from all devices, creating a strong and difficult-to-guess password (using a combination of uppercase and lowercase letters, numbers, and symbols), enabling two-factor authentication, checking active login sessions, removing any unfamiliar devices, and reviewing his email and phone number recovery settings. These are measures I would personally take as well, it is always better to be safe than sorry.

(And I also asked him to check all his other social media like Instagram, Threads even Twitter (X) and LinkedIn etc. just to be safe as you don't know how sophisticated hackers can be nowadays)

Receiving a verification code via WhatsApp is not the most common method, although it can happen under certain circumstances. Hackers sometimes imitate OTP or verification messages to create panic and trick users into revealing their codes.

The WhatsApp message itself raised some suspicion. Although it appeared to come from Meta, official verification messages are usually sent under recognizable names such as Facebook, Meta, or WhatsApp. A random sender name like “Geeta Code” is not typical for an official message.

The message also indicated that it came from a “Phone number from Indonesia, Business account.” Normally, official WhatsApp verification codes related to Facebook are sent from verified business accounts clearly labeled as Facebook or Meta, not from unrelated names.

In addition, the message format looked rather generic. It read:

“Update Notice: [Code Number] Account information must not be shared.”

Official Facebook verification messages typically say something like:

“Your Facebook code is [Code Number].”

However, the fact that he was able to successfully change his password suggests that the code did correspond to a legitimate Facebook password reset request.

In some cases, companies use third-party messaging gateways to deliver OTP codes via WhatsApp, which may result in different sender names appearing. Even so, the situation still seems unusual.

The concern is that although he managed to regain access using this suspicious-looking code, it could also indicate that someone else might attempt to duplicate or hijack the account and begin posting under his name. I have seen this happen before to another friend, and I advised him to immediately reset his password, inform his contacts on Facebook, and report the issue to Facebook at the same time.

Sometimes, the old school approach is still the best school, use the verification code sent to your registered email address rather than taking the quicker route through WhatsApp or, in some cases, SMS.

BEYOND THE SYSTEM - PROFESSIONAL JUDGEMENT STILL MATTERS IN RECRUITMENT

In today’s recruitment landscape, organisations rely heavily on systems, databases, and AI tools to validate candidates. While these tools improve efficiency, they should never replace professional judgment. Recruitment is both a science and an art, a balance between technology and human insight.

From my experience as a Human Resource Manager interviewing candidates across management and technical roles, I often advise younger HR professionals - do not depend solely on systems. Tools provide data, but they cannot fully capture experience, skills, or character especially for older qualifications or roles not fully reflected in modern records.

1) Detecting Real Competence

Genuine capability often reveals itself in interviews. Candidates with authentic experience explain what they did, how, and why, describing operational constraints, decision-making, challenges, and outcomes.

Techniques such as reconstructing real problems step by step, asking unexpected operational details, discussing failures and lessons learned quickly distinguish true experience from memorised or theoretical answers.

Experienced HR professionals develop structured intuition, combining observation, questioning, and pattern recognition to detect authenticity.

2) Modern Tools, Timeless Principles

Modern HR techniques, structured behavioural interviews (STAR method), competency-based hiring, psychometric tests, work simulations, AI screening, refine the process but do not replace human evaluation. Leading companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and McKinsey formalise methods that experienced interviewers have intuitively used for years, deep-dive interviews, case studies, bar raisers, and structured scorecards.

Even AI and analytics have limitations, algorithmic bias, overeliance on keywords, and inability to assess practical experience. Increasingly, organisations are adopting Human-in-the-Loop recruitment, combining technology for efficiency with professional judgment for quality.

3) Advice for the Next Generation of HR Leaders

For younger HR managers, recruitment is never purely mechanical. Systems assist, but insight comes from reading between the lines of answers, understanding the context behind qualifications, observing behavioural cues and practical knowledge, recognising authenticity in explanations, developing this skill takes experience, reflection, and repeated exposure to real-world hiring scenarios. In cases of incomplete verification, balanced judgment supported by assessments, interviews, and probationary observation ensures fair evaluation.

4) Conclusion

Technology can guide recruitment, but sound hiring depends on human insight. Competence shows through performance, and authenticity emerges when candidates explain their work in depth. Modern HR may have advanced tools, but the fundamentals remain, professional judgment, careful questioning & practical evaluation define hiring quality.

Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Opportunities: ASEAN and Malaysia in a Shifting Global Landscape - Overview by Nik Zafri

 

1. INTRODUCTION - A NEW ERA OF GLOBAL INSTABILITY

The ongoing confrontations in the Middle East primarily involving Iran, Israel, and their allies with strategic involvement from the United States, have heightened global uncertainty. Simultaneously, rising protectionism through U.S. tariffs, fragile diplomatic ties between the European Union, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and the unresolved Palestine conflict add layers of instability.

While geographically distant, these tensions have direct economic implications for ASEAN, including Malaysia, affecting energy security, supply chains, trade flows, and regional stability.

2. ENERGY SECURITY AND OIL PRICE VOLATILITY

2.1 Strategic Oil Corridors

The Middle East supplies over 30% of the world’s oil. Conflicts involving Iran threaten key energy corridors:

• Strait of Hormuz: Handles ~20% of global oil supply.

• Strait of Malacca: Between Malaysia and Indonesia, handles ~23 million barrels per day.

Flow: Middle East Oil Fields → Strait of Hormuz → Indian Ocean → Strait of Malacca → East Asia & ASEAN.

For ASEAN, disruptions translate into:

• Higher energy costs

• Increased shipping insurance premiums

• Longer transit routes

• Greater supply chain risk

2.2 FISCAL IMPACT OF OIL SHOCKS

Malaysia subsidizes fuel heavily. Historical patterns illustrate fiscal vulnerability:

Key figures (2024–2025):

• Average Brent crude 2024: US$79.9/bbl

• Malaysian fuel subsidies 2024: RM19.7B; 2022: RM23.1B

• RON95 petrol: RM1.99/litre (~US$0.48 vs global avg US$1.30)

• ASEAN petroleum import dependence: Indonesia 15.5%, Malaysia 13.8%, Thailand 12.3%, Philippines 11%

High oil prices increase government revenue through Petronas dividends but also significantly raise subsidy costs, constraining public spending on infrastructure, education, and climate initiatives.

2.3 Food Security Implications

Rising fuel costs increase fertilizer, transport, and agricultural production costs, putting upward pressure on food prices. Populous ASEAN nations could experience inflationary impacts affecting household purchasing power.

3.0 TRADE, SUPPLY CHAINS AND PROTECTIONISM

3.1 U.S. Tariffs and Trade Fragmentation

U.S. tariffs (~24%) on Malaysian exports, including electronics, consumer goods, and industrial components, threaten sectors generating billions in revenue:

• Electrical & electronics exports 2024: RM593B

Global companies may shift production via "China+1" strategies, providing ASEAN an opportunity to diversify manufacturing bases.

3.2 Critical Minerals

Strategic minerals : rare earths, lithium, tungsten, indium, molybdenum are essential for semiconductors, EVs, renewable energy, and defense. ASEAN holds potential as a critical minerals hub, especially Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam.

3.3 Logistics and Aviation Risks

• Airspace restrictions over conflict zones = longer flights, higher fuel costs, ticket prices, and cargo delays

• Maritime disruptions = increased shipping insurance premiums and transport costs

4.0 FINANCIAL MARKET AND CURRENCY

Geopolitical crises trigger:

• Capital flight toward safe-haven assets

• Emerging market currency pressures (e.g., Malaysian Ringgit)

• Stock market volatility

Currency Strategy:

• Pegging the Ringgit to Renminbi is risky due to loss of monetary flexibility and diversified trade relations.

• Multi-currency settlement (Ringgit–Baht, Ringgit–Rupiah) or currency baskets (USD, RMB, Euro, Yen) reduce exchange rate exposure.

Petrodollar vs Petro-Yuan: While China promotes Renminbi in energy trade, the U.S. dollar remains dominant. ASEAN’s pragmatic approach is multi-currency operations rather than replacing the dollar.

5. GEOPOLITICAL RISK SCENARIOS FOR ASEAN

1. Contained Conflict: Regional with limited oil disruption = moderate fiscal/economic impact

2. Energy Shock: Oil supply disruption = higher import bills, subsidy surge, inflation

3. Global Strategic Fragmentation: Trade bloc realignment = supply chain restructuring, pressure on ASEAN neutrality

ASEAN’s long-standing diplomatic neutrality remains a strength, but increasing global polarization will test its ability to balance relations with Western powers, China, and emerging economies.

6. POSSIBLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR ASEAN

Despite risks, global shifts create opportunities:

• Supply Chain Diversification: Attracting manufacturing from politically unstable regions (Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia)

• Energy Investments: Accelerating renewable energy projects and regional energy cooperation

• Critical Mineral Processing: Establishing hubs for rare earth and battery-related production

• Semiconductor Expansion: Leveraging Malaysia’s existing assembly and testing infrastructure

Partnership Leverage:

• China: infrastructure, manufacturing relocation, Belt & Road projects

• Russia: energy diversification, fertilizers for agriculture

• BRICS: economic platform, not a strategic bloc, multi-alignment diplomacy preferred

7.0 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS : MARITIME SECURITY AND INDO-PACIFIC BALANCE

• South China Sea and Strait of Malacca are critical maritime trade routes, disruptions amplify economic risks.

• ASEAN must prioritize maritime stability while balancing relations among global powers.

8.0 IS ASEAN ON THE PATH OF BECOMING MAJOR ECONOMIC POWER OF THE FUTURE

• Population: >680 million, one of the largest consumer markets

• Geography: Strategic location linking Indian and Pacific Oceans

• Manufacturing & digital economy: benefiting from “China+1,” attracting data centres and AI investment

• Diplomatic neutrality: enables engagement with multiple global partners

If managed strategically, ASEAN could emerge as the fourth major economic bloc by 2040, leveraging:

• Economic diversification

• Strategic diplomacy

• Regional integration

9.0 CONCLUSION (for now)

Middle Eastern conflicts, global oil volatility, U.S. protectionism, and competition over strategic minerals are reshaping the global economic landscape. For ASEAN and Malaysia, these risks manifest in:

• Higher oil prices and fiscal pressures

• Trade and supply chain disruptions

• Financial market volatility

However, careful fiscal management, trade diversification, and strategic diplomacy offer opportunities:

• Strengthening ASEAN’s role as a manufacturing and logistics hub

• Expanding renewable energy and critical mineral capabilities

• Maintaining neutrality to engage with multiple global powers