RUMOURS VS FACTS, SPECULATION VS ANALYSIS

I've heard stories about most major banking and financial Institutions are having special meetings to revise and reformulate monetary policies.

I do agree with these actions as the stock market may rise again PROVIDED the best monetary policies are introduced into the marketplace.

One thing for certain, investors are digesting rumours rather than facts, speculation rather than analysis - people just don't have the patience to wait nowadays. Many have told me that this is going to be short term but that 'short term' are dominating the market with making strange shapes. One news from the US...say unemployment rate, then it would finally affect the whole world.

One thing for certain, there are still investors taking risks waiting for 'the right time to sell' - even minimum gains is good enough but many seem to find strength in weakness (opportunity to buy/profit taking) where efforts to strengthen of holdings in equities are seen. Despite its sluggish performance, surprisingly USD may get better - lowest interest rates offerings, plans of liquidity etc.

Well, as for me, besides than unit trust, I'm also looking into GLC's bonds at the moment. Will be back soon..

The Star Global Malaysians Forum

nikzafri-11 January 2006 at 9:48pm wrote:

Someone very wise** once told me (in 1998) - during my 'downfall' (** - Ybhg Tuan Haji Ahmad bin Che Din of Taman Merdeka, Selama, Perak - my mentor) 1. Invest in Gold 2. Invest in Agricultural Products Not long after that, the Honourable Tun Dr. Mahathir started to talk about prospects of 'Dinar Emas and Gold Coins'. In 2005, YAB Prime Minister, Dato Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi gave further and stronger emphasis on expanding the prospects of Biotechnology (focus : agricultural). It's not something to be too serious about or 'hitting the panic button' scenario but it's something worth pondering. ----------------------------- Today, as reported in the Star : http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/1/11/nation/13075088&sec=nation Rising value of gold makes it a good investment By EDWARD RAJENDRA edward@thestar.com.my KLANG: Step aside, athletes. Businessmen are going for gold these days. Federal and Selangor Indian Goldsmith Association adviser N.P. Raman believe that businessmen and cash-rich people were purchasing gold for investment. “It is business logic to include gold in a diversified investment portfolio. Gold can act as a hedge against inflation. Keeping your assets in gold is sound economic sense,” he said. Yesterday, the gold price stood at RM2,090 an ounce, compared with RM1,617 on June 5 last year. Raman said that for those with cash, gold was a good buy as long-term savings, and added that gold coins would be a better choice. “A person who buys gold coins now would get the market price of the day when he decides to sell it,” he said. Going by the market trend now, Raman said, the price of gold was expected to escalate. “Right now, it is about RM70 a gram, and is expected to hit RM100 per gram in two to three months,” he said. Raman operates from Jalan Tengku Kelana, where scores of goldsmiths are located. Most of them are worried that middle-income people, who form the bulk of their customers, will not be able to afford gold now. “For Indians, the period between mid-January and March 15 is an auspicious time for weddings. It is a time for a roaring business but now couples are resorting to simple three-pound gold chains instead of nine pounds. Their buying power has weakened,” he said. Nik It's not something to be too serious about or 'hitting the panic button' scenario but it's something worth pondering.

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Here it comes again :

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/2/3/business/13290549&sec=business

Gold hits 25-year high in London

LONDON: Gold rose to a 25-year high in London as gains in crude oil prices increased speculation that inflation will accelerate, eroding the value of assets such as stocks and bonds.

Gold rose 18% last year in London as investors bought the metal as a hedge against record oil prices stoking inflation.

Oil rose before the United Nations' atomic watchdog meets today to consider referring Iran's nuclear programme to the Security Council, which may impose sanctions the second largest exporter in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).

nikzafri - 02 January 2006 at 5:41pm wrote:
http://www.globalmalaysians.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=465&PN=1
3) ...Have a 'cushion to fall on' in the case of inflation...

“Rising oil prices will continue to keep gold prices buoyant this year, as it's likely to lead to inflation,” Ross Norman, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, said in an interview yesterday.

Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as US$3.85, or 0.7%, to US$573.20 an ounce, the highest since January 1981. It traded at US$572.99 at 10:09am London time.

The situation in Iran was a “double whammy” for the gold market, Norman said.

“It increases geopolitical tension as well as oil prices, both of which are good for gold,” he added.

Crude oil for March delivery rose as much as 63 US cents, or 1%, to US$67.19 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

World gold prices are likely to rise to US$610 an ounce by March/April, but this is unlikely to deter Indians from importing the same amount of the precious metal in 2006 as last year, according to the head of the country's leading bullion trade body.

Mukul Sonawala, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, said on Wednesday that gold could see a small correction before it rose again.

He said a price of US$540 per ounce would provide a buying opportunity.

“There is inherent strength in the market,” Sonawala told Reuters. “All the fundamental factors are pointing to that.” – Agencies
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Posted: 24 February 2007 at 3:34pm

My Gold Fact Sheet

Gold price indicates:

a) inherent value
b) quoted currency relative strength

On Supply/Demand

- the price will always be stable and doesn't seem to be much effected by even reduction in supply or in net selling by the bank,

- demand - be it raw material or investment) still going high - (you can simply based on sales of jewellery - ask my wife)

- supply - production results, hedging by mining companies, scrap/net sales by bank -all still going steady

Investment

As Portfolio diversifier. All over the world, calculation is based on standard
returns correlation/volatility.

And of course - Gold is a Reserve Asset.

What? There's more?

- inflation seem to have not much effect on Gold as well,
- Gold is all time purchasing power indicator,
- Gold's liquidity power is guaranteed,
- in case anything happen (even market crash), gold will come to the rescue
- provide confidence, insurance, assurance and security (try keeping them, or perhaps buy a genuine Rolex at least, you'll know)

END OF LINE....

Agriculture

(Search the NET..you'll know)

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 15 February 2006 at 6:51pm

Quickies on Global Economy

2004 - catching up. 2005 - a bit slow. 2006 - moderate perhaps at 3.5 %. average growth.Progress in developing countries - coming up fast. Performance in US, Europe and Japan - moderate. South East Asia - forecasted 5-6% growth (2006)

Key Global Issues requiring attention 2006 :

* employment,
* inflation,
* surging/fluctuation/control of oil price,
* deficit,
* stock market and other investments,
* balancing liquidity and interest rates,
* Global Exchange Rate/Fiscal policies - review and improve till the best is achieved,
* Disease & Epidemic Control
* Terrorism
* Price of Non-Oil Commodity
* Natural Disasters

Good News?

* Property Market - potentially booming
* International Trade - still OK
* more Free Trade Zone (hopefully)
* Food & Drugs Industry - still OK
* Service industry - still OK but be more susceptible 'on things happening around you'

Alert?

* Agriculture/Biotechnology - focus on domestic growth rather export,
* International Conventions - 'walk the talk - not talk the walk' - no lip services,
* More FDIs
* More financing and debt relief
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Posted: 13 March 2006 at 6:03pm

I think almost all quarters relevant have unanimously agreed that the stock market and the economy will see a better performance this year.

Since earnings from export have now shown signs of good performance, the GDP will definitely rise to - if not = 6% at least > 5%. I'm also 'betting' on this year's GLC's improved performance and FDI pouring in. I must say that I'm quite impressed with 'positive' signs been happening around me since nearly a week now (that's explains my 'long dissapearance' from this forum topic for almost a fortnight. Well, been roaming in the physical world to run some 'experiments') such as smooth mergers and acquisitions of finance/banking sectors, current stock value on the exchange, increased interest in Mesdaq, - hmmm...we should be lucky I guess.

I wanted to be optimistic for just this moment - The above concise statement would definitely be 'absorbed' into the 'uncertainties' to 'restore balance' especially those related to interest rates, oil price, policies, inflation, ringgit alignment, technology etc. The 'balancing restoration' will create the 'cushion' for future impact.

Yeap...I think we're quite ready...

p.s. 15/03/2006 - forgot to add another issue - employment...I'm also quite happy to see some 'corporate sectors' especially banking/finance move to take in graduates - training and paying them more handsome allowances - eventually employing them.