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NIK ZAFRI BIN ABDUL MAJID,
CONSULTANT/TRAINER
Email: nikzafri@yahoo.com, nikzafri@gmail.com
https://nikzafri.wixsite.com/nikzafri

Kelantanese, Alumni of Sultan Ismail College Kelantan (SICA), IT Competency Cert, Certified Written English Professional US. Has participated in many seminars/conferences (local/ international) in the capacity of trainer/lecturer and participant.

Affiliations :- Network Member of Gerson Lehrman Group, Institute of Quality Malaysia, Auditor ISO 9000 IRCAUK, Auditor OHSMS (SIRIM and STS) /EMS ISO 14000 and Construction Quality Assessment System CONQUAS, CIDB (Now BCA) Singapore),

* Possesses almost 30 years of experience/hands-on in the multi-modern management & technical disciplines (systems & methodologies) such as Knowledge Management (Hi-Impact Management/ICT Solutions), Quality (TQM/ISO), Safety Health Environment, Civil & Building (Construction), Manufacturing, Motivation & Team Building, HR, Marketing/Branding, Business Process Reengineering, Economy/Stock Market, Contracts/Project Management, Finance & Banking, etc. He was employed to international bluechips involving in national/international megaprojects such as Balfour Beatty Construction/Knight Piesold & Partners UK, MMI Insurance Group Australia, Hazama Corporation (Hazamagumi) Japan (with Mitsubishi Corporation, JA Jones US, MMCE and Ho-Hup) and Sunway Construction Berhad (The Sunway Group of Companies). Among major projects undertaken : Pergau Hydro Electric Project, KLCC Petronas Twin Towers, LRT Tunnelling, KLIA, Petronas Refineries Melaka, Putrajaya Government Complex, Sistem Lingkaran Lebuhraya Kajang (SILK), Mex Highway, KLIA1, KLIA2 etc. Once serviced SMPD Management Consultants as Associate Consultant cum Lecturer for Diploma in Management, Institute of Supervisory Management UK/SMPD JV. Currently – Associate/Visiting Consultants/Facilitators, Advisors for leading consulting firms (local and international) including project management. To name a few – Noma SWO Consult, Amiosh Resources, Timur West Consultant Sdn. Bhd., TIJ Consultants Group (Malaysia and Singapore) and many others.

* Ex-Resident Weekly Columnist of Utusan Malaysia (1995-1998) and have produced more than 100 articles related to ISO-9000– Management System and Documentation Models, TQM Strategic Management, Occupational Safety and Health (now OHSAS 18000) and Environmental Management Systems ISO 14000. His write-ups/experience has assisted many students/researchers alike in module developments based on competency or academics and completion of many theses. Once commended by the then Chief Secretary to the Government of Malaysia for his diligence in promoting and training the civil services (government sector) based on “Total Quality Management and Quality Management System ISO-9000 in Malaysian Civil Service – Paradigm Shift Scalar for Assessment System”

Among Nik Zafri’s clients : Adabi Consumer Industries Sdn. Bhd, (MRP II, Accounts/Credit Control) The HQ of Royal Customs and Excise Malaysia (ISO 9000), Veterinary Services Dept. Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), The Institution of Engineers Malaysia (Aspects of Project Management – KLCC construction), Corporate HQ of RHB (Peter Drucker's MBO/KRA), NEC Semiconductor - Klang Selangor (Productivity Management), Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia (ISO 9000), State Secretarial Office Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), Hidrological Department KL (ISO 9000), Asahi Kluang Johor(System Audit, Management/Supervisory Development), Tunku Mahmood (2) Primary School Kluang Johor (ISO 9000), Consortium PANZANA (HSSE 3rd Party Audit), Lecturer for Information Technology Training Centre (ITTC) – Authorised Training Center (ATC) – University of Technology Malaysia (UTM) Kluang Branch Johor, Kluang General Hospital Johor (Management/Supervision Development, Office Technology/Administration, ISO 9000 & Construction Management), Kahang Timur Secondary School Johor (ISO 9000), Sultan Abdul Jalil Secondary School Kluang Johor (Islamic Motivation and Team Building), Guocera Tiles Industries Kluang Johor (EMS ISO 14000), MNE Construction (M) Sdn. Bhd. Kota Tinggi Johor (ISO 9000 – Construction), UITM Shah Alam Selangor (Knowledge Management/Knowledge Based Economy /TQM), Telesystem Electronics/Digico Cable(ODM/OEM for Astro – ISO 9000), Sungai Long Industries Sdn. Bhd. (Bina Puri Group) - ISO 9000 Construction), Secura Security Printing Sdn. Bhd,(ISO 9000 – Security Printing) ROTOL AMS Bumi Sdn. Bhd & ROTOL Architectural Services Sdn. Bhd. (ROTOL Group) – ISO 9000 –Architecture, Bond M & E (KL) Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9000 – Construction/M & E), Skyline Telco (M) Sdn. Bhd. (Knowledge Management),Technochase Sdn. Bhd JB (ISO 9000 – Construction), Institut Kefahaman Islam Malaysia (IKIM – ISO 9000 & Internal Audit Refresher), Shinryo/Steamline Consortium (Petronas/OGP Power Co-Generation Plant Melaka – Construction Management and Safety, Health, Environment), Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Negotiation Skills), Association for Retired Intelligence Operatives of Malaysia (Cyber Security – Arpa/NSFUsenet, Cobit, Till, ISO/IEC ISMS 27000 for Law/Enforcement/Military), T.Yamaichi Corp. (M) Sdn. Bhd. (EMS ISO 14000) LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd., (Lean Scoreboard (including a full development of System-Software-Application - MSC Malaysia & Six Sigma) PJZ Marine Services Sdn. Bhd., (Safety Management Systems and Internal Audit based on International Marine Organization Standards) UNITAR/UNTEC (Degree in Accountacy – Career Path/Roadmap) Cobrain Holdings Sdn. Bhd.(Managing Construction Safety & Health), Speaker for International Finance & Management Strategy (Closed Conference), Pembinaan Jaya Zira Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9001:2008-Internal Audit for Construction Industry & Overview of version 2015), Straits Consulting Engineers Sdn. Bhd. (Full Integrated Management System – ISO 9000, OHSAS 18000 (ISO 45000) and EMS ISO 14000 for Civil/Structural/Geotechnical Consulting), Malaysia Management & Science University (MSU – (Managing Business in an Organization), Innoseven Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 MSPR8 – Awareness and Internal Audit (Construction), ISO 9001:2008 and 2015 overview for the Construction Industry), Kemakmuran Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 - Signages/Wayfinding - Project Quality Plan and Construction Method Statement ), Lembaga Tabung Haji - Flood ERP, WNA Consultants - DID/JPS -Flood Risk Assessment and Management Plan - Prelim, Conceptual Design, Interim and Final Report etc., Tunnel Fire Safety - Fire Risk Assessment Report - Design Fire Scenario), Safety, Health and Environmental Management Plans leading construction/property companies/corporations in Malaysia, Timur West Consultant : Business Methodology and System, Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) ISO/IEC 27001:2013 for Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya ISMS/Audit/Risk/ITP Technical Team, MPDT Capital Berhad - ISO 9001: 2015 - Consultancy, Construction, Project Rehabilitation, Desalination (first one in Malaysia to receive certification on trades such as Reverse Osmosis Seawater Desalination and Project Recovery/Rehabilitation)

* Has appeared for 10 consecutive series in “Good Morning Malaysia RTM TV1’ Corporate Talk Segment discussing on ISO 9000/14000 in various industries. For ICT, his inputs garnered from his expertise have successfully led to development of work-process e-enabling systems in the environments of intranet, portal and interactive web design especially for the construction and manufacturing. Some of the end products have won various competitions of innovativeness, quality, continual-improvements and construction industry award at national level. He has also in advisory capacity – involved in development and moderation of websites, portals and e-profiles for mainly corporate and private sectors, public figures etc. He is also one of the recipients for MOSTE Innovation for RFID use in Electronic Toll Collection in Malaysia.

Note :


TO SEE ALL ARTICLES

ON THE"LABEL" SECTION BELOW (RIGHT SIDE COLUMN), YOU CAN CLICK ON ANY TAG - TO READ ALL ARTICLES ACCORDING TO ITS CATEGORY (E.G. LABEL : CONSTRUCTION) OR GO TO THE VERY END OF THIS BLOG AND CLICK "Older Posts"


 

Showing posts with label ANALYST. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ANALYST. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 02, 2014

Kawalan Emosi dan Psikologi Pelabur dalam Meramal Pasaran Saham – NIK ZAFRI

Nota/Penafian : Artikel ini adalah pendapat peribadi penulis sebagai berkongsi pengalaman kembali (setelah jatuh) membuat pelaburan di pasaran saham.



Kita sering melihat rancangan, segmen berita, wawancara dan lain-lain yang memaparkan perangkaan yang menunjukkan pembetulan dalam pasaran (market correction) tetapi adakah ini satu perkara yang penting perlu kita ketahui?

Saya melihat perubahan mendadak dalam cara kebanyakan penganalisa atau peramal pasaran mencuba sedaya-upaya untuk meramal pasaran saham. Apabila saya meneliti setiap komen, analisa, ramalan yang diberikan – kebanyakannya (bukan semua) – tidak pasti dan sifat ‘playsafe’ atau ‘tunggu dan lihat’ – menjadikan semua pendapat yang diberikan hanyalah teori semata-mata.

Izinkan saya berkongsi sedikit pandangan holistik saya mengenai pasaran saham dan kenapa saya bertanggapan bahawa percubaan untuk meramal pergerakan pasaran saham kadangkala membazir masa dan sumber.

Pertama – kenaikan dan penurunan pasaran saham. Ini kerana pasaran adalah di mana ‘pembeli dan ‘penjual’ bergabung.  Apabila terdapat ramai ‘penjual’ dari ‘pembeli’, maka harga akan turun.  (apabila 'pembeli' ramai dari 'penjual', maka harga saham akan melambung tinggi)

Sebabnya : Dari pengalaman saya sendiri, saya melihat, kadangkala pelabur lebih dipengaruhi perasaan berbanding dengan logik. Apabila bertindak mengikut perasaan, maka pasaran akan menjadi tidak stabil. Maka sebarang ramalan akan menjadi buntu. Sebaliknya jika pelabur bertindak secara logik, maka pasaran juga berpotensi menjadi stabil.

Kedua - Menghabiskan masa terlalu lama di hadapan skrin untuk meramal pergerakan pasaran saham kadang-kadang boleh dianggap sebagai ‘membazir masa’. Adalah lebih baik, kita tumpukan 80% dari masa berkenaan dengan membaca bahan-bahan yang menambahkan pengetahuan pelaburan dan 20% diberikan terhadap skrin.

Ketiga - Pelabur berpengalaman akan tahu bahawa trend sering menunjukkan bahawa bulan Ogos, September (terutamanya September) atau Oktober, akan berlaku sesuatu yang mampu mengubah pergerakan saham, antara lain ialah : 

  • Peperangan (terutamanya peperangan yang berlaku secara mengejut)
  • kesan asimetrik yang berasal dari luar negara (negara yang dipanggil ‘negara maju’) yang mengalami hutang negara yang sangat besar atau kadar faedah Rizab Persekutuan menjadi terlalu tinggi)
  • kadar pengangguran yang sangat tinggi (tandanya : apabila pembayaran gratuiti atau bonus pada 2-3 bulan sebelumnya ‘terlalu tinggi’)
  • kenaikan sumber tenaga secara mendadak, seperti petroleum dan diesel (minyak mentah termasuk minyak tanah) - apa yang ganjil ialah fenomena ini diikuti dengan kenaikan bahanapi yang lain seperti arangbatu, hidro dll TERMASUK alternatif seperti minyak sawit dan tenaga solar (saya pun hairan kenapa? - tetapi saya seperti bersedia untuk menghadapi suasana berkenaan)
  • kenaikan harga barang makanan secara tiba-tiba(tidak semestinya kenaikan barangan terkawal seperti gula dan minyak masak sahaja)
  • kenaikan kos sara hidup (Contohnya kenaikan nilai hartanah selaras dengan kedatangan pelabur asing)
  • nilai projek contohnya pembinaan yang dijalankan terlalu tinggi dari kebiasaan (mungkin pelabur terkejut, jika saya katakan bahawa, nilai projek yang tinggi BUKAN disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga bahan binaan tetapi kerana faktor dalaman seperti pembaziran, kerosakan yang tinggi tanpa kawalan, kemalangan di tempat kerja dan juga rasuah!)

Dan banyak lagi tanda-tanda lain – ada juga trend yang berlaku secara domestik (dalam negara) dan bukan berasal di peringkat antarabangsa.

Hal-hal yang disebutkan di atas juga menyebabkan pasaran menjadi ‘volatile’. Maka pelabur kadangkala banyak bergantung kepada maklumat dalam internet dan tidak lagi memeriksa kesahihan maklumat berkenaan. 

Kadangkala ada maklumat yang bermotifkan spekulasi untuk memanipulasikan psikologi pelabur bagi menjual atau membeli (berawaslah)

Pendekata, tidak ada sebarang pelaburan yang boleh dikategorikan sebagai ‘sempurna’.  Ianya bergantung kepada proses dan kebarangkalian.

Sebenarnya, salah satu faktor kejayaan saya sendiri (secara peribadi) ialah semua sumber yang pernah saya pelajari atau rujuk perlu digabungkan dengan pengalaman saya sendiri. Dengan kata lain, saya sendiri mencipta teknik pelaburan yang tersendiri dan tidak terlalu bergantung kepada bahan-bahan yang ‘bersepah’ di internet atau mengharapkan analisa dan ramalan pasaran pakar.

Apa yang penting kepada saya ialah meninggikan kebarangkalian untuk mengambil tindakan yang betul (kerana saya juga tidak kebal dari melakukan kesilapan). Tindakan yang betul ‘berulangkali’ akan meninggikan lagi kebarangkalian untuk saya meraih keuntungan berbanding berulangkali tindakan yang silap akan meninggikan kebarangkalian saya mengalami kerugian yang besar.

Jika diperhatikan betul-betul, semuanya bergerak dalam satu kitaran. Ada yang naik dan ada yang turun (begitulah sebaliknya)

Setiap kali adanya ‘bullish’, maka ianya akan diikuti dengan ‘bearish’. Begitulah sebaliknya.

Setiap kali berlakunya pembetulan (correction), maka akan datang pemulihan (recovery)

Walaubagaimanapun, bukan perkara yang senang untuk meramal dan mengawal pasaran saham. Ramai yang kecewa apabila perkara ini berlaku.

Tetapi yang pasti, pasaran saham adalah peluang keemasan untuk menjana pendapatan sekiranya pelabur menggunakan teknik dan strategi pelaburan yang ‘matang’ (persediaan untuk ‘untung dan rugi’ dalam pelaburan)

Jangan terlalu beranggapan bahawa pasaran saham merupakan cara ‘rahsia’ untuk menjadikan anda seorang yang kaya kerana ‘cita-cita’ itu kadangkala akan menjadi ‘illusi’ dan anda pasti kecewa melihat hasilnya. Jika anda beranggapan begini, maka anda juga menjadikan diri anda sebagai ‘spekulator’ dan anda setaraf dengan mereka yang berjudi atau menikam loteri.


Pasaran saham bukan tempat spekulasi atau perjudian – ianya adalah perniagaan yang mempunyai ‘untung dan rugi’ dan bukannya ‘untung’ semata-mata atau ‘rugi semata-mata'

No, You Can't Use Fund Flows To Predict Stock Market Movements

DON FISHBACK, BETA ODDS SEP. 30, 2010, 5:11 PM

I suppose I could leave it at that, but perhaps a little explanation is warranted.


There was an article on Business Insider today that told of a formula for market success. It was based on “following” mutual fund flows. When fund flows are positive, go long a broad-based market index, such as SPY. When fund flows are negative, go short the SPY.

If that sounds familiar, it should. Almost one year to the day, I wrote about the same thing!

Here’s a link to the post titled Busting Yet Another Market Myth (Please refer to the author's official blog )

There were actually two parts to last year’s post. One part dealt with what happened to the stock market after the broad-based indexes rose more than a given percentage above their long-term moving averages. The second part dealt with what happened to the stock market after mutual fund flows of stock funds were positive or negative.

I showed that from the period beginning in 2007, a terrific strategy would have been to do the non-contrarian thing and follow fund flows. In other words, the conclusion the Business Insider contributor reached was correct based on the data period analyzed.


Importantly, I also showed that had you selected a different time period, the results would have shown the exact opposite! In other words, following fund flows would have proven to be disastrous. You would have completely missed out on a huge market rally.



What’s more, in my analysis, I did not go short when fund flows were negative as the Business Insider article suggested. Had you also gone short when flows were negative from 1984 to 1990, would have been catastrophically wiped out!

Bottom line, there is no evidence that, when measured over an extended time period, mutual fund flows predict gains and losses.

This article originally appeared at Beta Odds. Copyright 2014.

Thursday, January 09, 2014

APA YANG PERLU DILAKUKAN UNTUK MENYELESAIKAN MASALAH EKONOMI? - NIK ZAFRI

Bagaimana untuk memuaskan kehendak yang tidak berakhir dengan sumber yang terhad?


  • Apa yang baik perlu diutamakan berdasarkan kehendak dan bagaimana pembekalan dan bantuan dapat memuaskan kehendak yang tidak bernoktah
  • Kenalpasti jenis dan perbezaan kehendak manusia, utamakan kehendak dan susun produktiviti bagi memuaskan sebanyak mungkin kehendak yang termampu.
  • Tentukan apa yang hendak dikeluarkan atau berikan dahulu apa yang patut untuk memuaskan permintaan
  • Pastikan ianya selaras dengan belanjawan dan kuasa membeli yang berbeza-beza
  • Modal dan barangan adalah sama penting. Selaraskan antara keduanya.
  • Pengeluaran akan lebih cekap jika sumber diuruskan dengan baik.
  • Maksimumkan gunatenaga kerja tidak kira jawatan, jenis kerja, corak kerja dll.
  • Sistem percukaian yang tidak dirancang boleh menjadi penyebab kepada agihan kekayaan yang tidak seimbang.
  • Wujudkan suasana untuk sektor pengeluaran menjadi lebih kompetitif dan meraih keuntungan menerusi penstrukturan semula cukai dan subsidi di mana perlu.
  • Lindungi ekonomi dari pengaruh luar yang negatif menyusup masuk dengan pengaruh dasar-dasar yang boleh merosakkan ekonomi.
  • Strukturkan kembali cukai untuk industri terpilih seperti besi, pengangkutan, simen dsb.
  • Penekanan terhadap R & D adalah lebih baik dari pengeluaran produk yang tidak berguna dalam pasaran - dikeluarkan pula dalam keadaan tergesa-gesa.
  • Sektor Perbankan dan Kewangan yang tidak teratur akan menjadi sebab inflasi dan kemelesetan. Kawalan terhadap pinjaman/pembiayaan lebih penting dalam saat-saat kritikal dan bukannya menaikkan kadar faedah atau menstrukturkan kembali pinjaman yang sediada.
  • Mereka yang menyewa rumah perlu menukar sewa rumah yang banyak dibayar kepada pembelian rumah. Jadikan deposit sebagai pendahuluan. (Mungkin cadangan ini agak keterlaluan tetapi rasanya boleh dipertimbangkan)
  • Hentikan atau kurangkan penjualan aset kepada orang atau negara asing.
  • Hentikan atau kurangkan liberalisasi kewangan kepada pelabur asing. Terdapat laporan, ada di antara mereka bertanding secara tidak sihat sehingga merugikan industri tempatan.
  • Kurangkan perbelanjaan di luar kawalan terutamanya ke atas program dan inisiatif yang dibiaya oleh pinjaman luar.
  • Adakan dasar untuk mengurangkan penggunaan barangan impot
  • Lihat bagaimana negara lain berjaya membangunkan kekuatan industri dan cuba ambil contoh
  • Kawal imbangan defisit perdagangan. Kurangkan aliran keluar wang yang tidak kembali kepada kita. Wang yang tidak kembali boleh menyebabkan negara luar membeli syarikat-syarikat terbaik di negara kita.
  • Semak kembali perjanjian-perjanjian perdagangan atau memorandum-memorandum persefahaman kita dengan negara asing. Kadangkala terdapat undang-undang perdagangan luar yang tidak selaras dengan undang-undang kita menyebabkan perdagangan kita tidak konsisten dan tidak begitu adil.
  • Perdagangan bebas kadangkala menjadi satu permasalahan. Ianya perlu digantikan dengan perdagangan lebih pintar supaya ekonomi kita tidak mudah dimanipulasikan oleh pihak asing
  • Pengeluaran dalam negara kita lebih menguntungkan dari mencari kepakaran pengeluaran dari luar.
  • Pastikan kita tidak kehilangan industri percetakan, automotif, hiburan, besi, elektronik, pakaian dll kerana ini sedikit sebanyak boleh mengancam keselamatan negara dan standard kehidupan
  • Pastikan syarikat-syarikat yang disenaraikan dalam Bursa Malaysia betul-betul mendatangkan keuntungan kepada pelabur - bukan hanya dalam beberapa hari selepas disenaraikan.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

AS PREDICTED BY NIK ZAFRI




As Nik Zafri has predicted, there will be signs of recovery for Malaysia from April, 2009

NIK ZAFRI'S HUMBLE FORECAST FOR 2009 - (Made in December, 2008)

2ND SIGN

1ST SIGN


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THE STAR - BUSINESS

Thursday April 16, 2009

Economy expected to perform better, says Bank Negara

KUALA LUMPUR: The economy should perform better in the second half of the year as the fiscal stimulus packages are implemented and the effects of the supportive monetary environment kick in, Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said.

"The first quarter was very much affected by external economic contraction taking place, our exports numbers have shown that,” she said.

Malaysian Institute of Economic Research expects local exports to decline 24% this year on sagging worldwide demand, the think tank said in its report yesterday.
Speaking after launching the Interbank Murabahah Master Agreement (IMMA) and Master Agency Agreement (MAA) yesterday, Zeti said the domestic economy was still growing and “this is what we need to sustain the country’s economy”.

Asked if the central bank would revise its economic growth target, she said: “Right now, we have made the assumption that in the second half, the external environment will stabilise and that the fiscal stimulus packages will be implemented.”

“And so, in the current environment, our projection is flat growth as the contraction of the external sector would be offset by domestic demand,” she said.

Bank Negara has projected the economy to register a growth rate of -1% to 1% this year.

On whether the economy had bottomed, Zeti said: “No, it is not clear yet what the direction is in the global economy.”

There was “some stabilisation” taking place but “we still have to wait and see”, she said.

To another query on interest rates, the governor said the central bank had already adopted an aggressive stance and now the focus was to ensure that lending continued.

Zeti said there was no need to raise banks’ minimum capital requirement at the moment.

Non-performing loans were at a historical low now at just over 2%, she said, adding that even if the rates rose, banks were “well positioned to absorb it”.

Zeti said Malaysia did not manage its exchange rate against any specific currency.

“The currency is not a policy instrument but is used to facilitate trade and investment,” she said.

Meanwhile, the newly launched agreements have been adopted by the members of the Association of Islamic Banking Institutions Malaysia (AIBIM) for their deposit-taking and placement transactions.

AIBIM president Datuk Zukri Samat said the adoption of the IMMA and MAA documents would help increase the intensity of Islamic interbank activities.

Like any other money market products, the success of commodity murabahah-based instruments would depend largely on the existence of a standardised document as well as a universally-acceptable structure that was widely recognised by the market, he said.
-------------------------------
Published: Thursday April 16, 2009 MYT 9:39:00 AM
Updated: Thursday April 16, 2009 MYT 9:41:26 AM

TNB powers KLCI early rise

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares on Bursa Malaysia jumped in early Thursday trade, as Wall Street rebound overnight buoyed investors’ sentiment across Asia.

Tenaga Nasional Bhd led rising stocks, adding 25 sen to RM6.75 on brighter outlook despite a drop in profits in the second quarter.

The surge in trading volume in the past few days also helped lift sentiment on the exchange operator, Bursa Malaysia Bhd. The stock climbed 25 sen to RM6.25.

Another big movers among index-linked companies was Malayan Banking Bhd. The counter soared 16sen to RM4.48.

The KL Composite Index advanced 11.44 points, or 1.2% to 968.12 points as at 9.27am. Turnover had surpassed 400 million shares worth at least RM200mil less than half an hour into trade.

The FBM Small Cap index, which track stocks outside the top 100 counters, gained 1.65% to 7,549 points

Around the region, stocks opened higher after stocks on Wall Street staged a late rally overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial ended 1.4% higher to 8,029 and the broader S&P 500 index gained 1.25% to 852 points.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 shot up 3% to 9,007 points, while Seoul’s main Kospi index opened 2.4% higher at 1,365 points. Singapore’s Straits Times index kick off Thursday’s trade with a 2% gain at 1,943 points.
-----------------------------------
Thursday April 16, 2009

Local stock market promising, set to make gains: CIMB Research

By EDY SARIF

PETALING JAYA: The local stock market outlook is promising and set for further gains due to the “political succession effect and the bottoming of foreign selling,” CIMB Research said.

“We see an improved outlook for the market due to a few reasons,” the research house wrote in its latest report.

“One is the political succession effect when Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak took over as prime minister. Historically, the market performed strongly in the three to six months before and after the changes.”

CIMB Research recently upgraded its rating on the local stockmarket to “overweight” from “neutral” and also raised its target for the KL Composite Index (KLCI) to 1,060 points from 1,013.

An imminent “reversal” in the flow of foreign funds would further lift the local bourse, the research house said, noting that foreign shareholdings were at their lowest level in February since September 2003, at only US$3bil (RM10.85bil).

“The slowdown in foreign fund’s net selling should lessen the downside pressure on share prices,” CIMB Research said.

“In fact, a reversal of these trends would provide a fillip to the market given local and foreign funds’ very high cash levels.”

It added that “a reversal should be imminent as the 12 straight months of net selling are unprecedented”.

Fortress Capital Asset Management (M) Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Thomas Yong said the current assessment on how the stock market was doing was much clearer to investors.

“This is supported by a significant amount of rebound in the market as Malaysia, with less foreign ownership, seems to recover much faster as compared with Singapore and Hong Kong,” he told StarBiz.

Aberdeen Asset Management fund manager Abdul Jalil Abdul Rasheed said as a long-term investor, they were not looking much at the daily performance of stock market.

“We don’t strategise ourselves for short-term market rally as what is happening now in the market. We are steadily buying regardless of whether the market is up or down. In fact, we buy more when the market is down,” he told StarBiz.

But some fund managers remain cautious, according to Kumpulan Sentiasa Cemerlang Sdn Bhd research director Choong Khuat Hock.

“These fund managers (would not rush in) to buy the stocks as they are not sure whether the market recovery would be sustainable,” he told Starbiz, referring to recent stock market rallies.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Hi everyone!!

It's been a while...dropping by to share a very good article which has caused me some delay in submitting a very important document to the client.

Luckily my client called me up to remind me...


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Speeches, Testimony, Papers
Global Economic Prospects 2008/2009: Hoping for a Global Slowdown and a US Recession
by Michael Mussa, Peterson Institute

Paper presented at the thirteenth semiannual meeting on Global Economic Prospects
April 3, 2008


© Peterson institute for International Economics. All rights reserved.

Overview

After four years of average annual global real GDP growth of better than 4 1/2 percent, recent data indicate that the pace of advance is slowing in the major industrial countries, with the US economy on the verge of, and perhaps already in, outright recession. So far, the evidence points to less of a slowdown in other industrial countries, while most emerging-market economies appear likely to maintain quite strong, albeit somewhat slower, growth.

Meanwhile, world consumer price inflation (on a 12-month basis) is up from barely 2 percent seven years ago to nearly 5 percent as of February 2008. Among both industrial (except for Japan) and major emerging-market countries, inflation is now running at, or in most cases somewhat above, rates consistent with policy objectives. Driven by persistently rising global demand, commodity prices continue to surge upward across the board, especially measured in US dollars but also in terms of the rapidly appreciating euro.

In this situation, the world economy really needs what is now forecast for 2008/2009: a significant slowing of economic growth, down to 3.8 percent (year over year) in 2008 from 4.7 percent in 2007.1 This slowdown will be led by a decline of demand growth in the US economy, which is both pronounced and extends over a considerable period. Indeed, in view of the exceptionally aggressive easing of macroeconomic policies already in place in the United States and the likelihood of monetary policy remaining highly accommodative so long as US financial markets remain under stress, it is now desirable that real GDP growth for 2008 fall to a forecasted rate of barely more than 1 percent (year over year)—an outcome consistent with a very mild and brief recession. Reflecting some risk of a somewhat deeper and more prolonged recession in the United States, the growth forecast for 2009 (year over year) is set at 2 percent.

For the rest of the world, a mild US recession in 2008 will have a modest negative effect on real GDP growth, with more significant impacts in Mexico and Canada. In countries where the slowdown threatens to become excessive and inflation is under control, some easing of monetary and perhaps fiscal policy is both likely and appropriate. More generally, however, it is too soon to call for a general and significant easing of macroeconomic policies. A general slowdown in global economic growth is needed to cool the clearly apparent upsurge in worldwide inflation.

Some countries, including Australia, China, and Sweden, have recently tightened monetary policies in efforts to forestall inflation. Other countries, including Canada and the United Kingdom, have eased monetary policies modestly in response to weakening economic growth. Quite appropriately, however, no country has so far followed the lead of the Federal Reserve in aggressive monetary easing.

As the custodian of the world's second most important currency, the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) is particularly noteworthy. Inflation in the euro area is running more than a percentage point above the ECB's announced objective. The euro area economy has recently been growing significantly more rapidly than its potential rate of about 1 1/2 percent. The unemployment rate has fallen half a percentage point below the minimum reached in the last expansion. Key monetary aggregates are surging at rates well above their desired target ranges. In this situation, one would normally have expected the ECB to have raised its key policy interest rate a further 100 basis points since last summer.

Instead, with financial turbulence spreading to some extent from the United States to euro area financial markets and institutions, with evidence that euro area economies are beginning to slow, and with a sharp appreciation of the euro against the dollar, which is likely to slow growth and impede inflation, the ECB has wisely held back from further interest rate increases. With the euro area economy now expected to expand by about 1 1/2 percent this year (in line with potential), the timing and direction of future adjustments in ECB interest rates remain—appropriately—dependent upon the evolving balance of risks for inflation and economic growth.

For Japan, the strengthening of the yen against the dollar in recent months and weakening of exports to the United States, together with likely weakness in domestic demand growth, suggest a further write-down in the forecast for real GDP growth for 2008 to 1.2 percent (from 1¾ percent forecast last October). This reflects the assumption that the surprising upsurge of GDP growth in the final quarter of 2007 will be partly offset in the first half of this year.

For the industrial countries as a group, real GDP growth this year is now forecast to be 1.5 percent, and growth for 2009 is projected to be moderately stronger at about 1.9 percent.

In emerging-market economies, circumstances vary and so do appropriate policies, but the general prospect is for continued quite strong economic growth, despite the slowdown in the industrial countries.

Is this "decoupling?" Not really. Mexico, Caribbean and Central American countries, and Asian economies that are particularly dependent on exports to the United States are already feeling and will continue to feel the effects of the US economic slowdown. More broadly, however, strong growth of domestic demand in many emerging-market economies will sustain reasonably strong GDP growth, and rising demand for raw materials by key emerging-market economies, most importantly China, will help keep commodity prices strong and aid growth in other emerging-market economies.

Overall, I forecast that growth for developing and emerging-market economies as a group this year will be about 6 1/2 percent, down from almost a 7 1/2 percent advance in 2007. For 2009, I now project slightly slower growth. The slowdown will be more severe, however, if growth in the industrial countries, especially the United States, turns out to be meaningfully below the present forecast. Exports from emerging-market countries would then be hit in volume terms, and prices of commodity exports could take a serious tumble. Some developing countries, especially among the primary commodity exporters, could face serious economic challenges and potential crises.

On this occasion, Arvind Subramanian is available to share his expertise on emerging-market economies, particularly in Asia and especially India. Accordingly, I will limit my remarks on these economies to selected observations on some key emerging-market countries. Then, in view of the departure from the Institute of my colleague Martin Baily and the (at least) temporary absence of Douglas Holtz-Eakin, I will turn to discuss growth prospects in the industrial countries, especially the United States. This should provide background for Morris Goldstein's more in-depth observations on the present financial crisis and proposals for reform.

Sustained Growth in Emerging Markets

China's economy continues to surge forward, so much so that the authorities are tightening policies to cool down inflation. Growth will likely slow from 11 1/2 percent last year to about 10 percent this year and next. On the policy front, the key action that should be taken—but that the Chinese authorities have so far refused—is a significant step appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar and in real effective terms, combined with policies to stimulate domestic demand.

In the rest of emerging Asia, growth will likely moderate somewhat in 2008 and 2009 but stay above 6 percent, with India continuing to grow at nearly 8 percent.

In Latin America, Mexico will suffer spillover effects from the slowing US economy, and growth this year is likely to fall to about 2 1/2 percent before recovering modestly in 2009. In contrast, Brazil should be able to sustain growth of nearly 5 percent, despite the strong appreciation of the real against the dollar. Growth in Argentina and Venezuela is expected to slow from the high rates of recent years, bringing down the growth rate for all of Latin America to about 4 1/2 percent this year and slightly less in 2009.

For Central and Eastern Europe, weak growth in Hungary and Turkey hurt regional performance in 2007 and partly offset strong results in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia. For 2008 and 2009, regional growth will likely run about 4 percent, reflecting partly the impact of slower growth in Western Europe.

In the Commonwealth of Independent States, the dominant Russian economy should continue to grow at about 7 percent, and growth rates will likely remain somewhat higher (on average) in the smaller economies.

For the Middle East, high oil prices will help keep growth strong in the energy-exporting countries. The larger and more diversified economies of Egypt and Israel should also maintain growth rates in the 5 percent range.

High commodity prices will continue to benefit many African countries, and growth in the region appears likely to continue at least at a 5 percent rate.

Slowing in Other Industrial Countries

Among the industrial countries other than the United States, growth will slow significantly from the 2 3/4 percent advance of 2007 to barely more than 1 1/2 percent this year. However, aside from the United States, I see significant risk of recession this year only in Japan and possibly Italy. The impact of the yen's recent appreciation and weakening of exports to the United States, together with deteriorating sentiment among Japanese businesses and consumers, could push GDP into a couple of quarters of negative growth, even if year-over-year growth remains slightly positive. And the Japanese policy authorities have little room to provide offsetting stimulus.

In Canada, growth this year will likely fall a little below 2 percent, under the impact of slowing US growth and a strong Canadian dollar. However, solid income growth from strong export revenues should keep domestic demand relatively robust, and the Canadian authorities have considerable room to ease policy should that appear needed to forestall very weak growth or recession.

In the United Kingdom, growth this year is also likely to slow to slightly less than 2 percent. But this is not entirely unwelcome in view of the need to curb inflationary pressures, and the Bank of England has plenty of room to ease further should that appear warranted. The Reserve Bank of Australia has continued to tighten in recent months and would surely welcome the forecasted slowing of growth to 3 percent this year.

In the euro area, as previously noted, the projected slowing of growth this year to 1.6 percent from 2.6 percent last year involves nothing more than slowing to the potential growth rate. The slowdown will affect all countries in the area. The Italian economy looks likely to be extremely sluggish and is at some risk of falling into recession. Growth should remain stronger in Germany, sustained by good export performance in the face of weaker consumer demand. France will lag slightly behind Germany, while Spain will slow considerably due to a sharp downturn in home building. The slowdown will probably be reflected in a small uptick in unemployment and will be unpopular with most politicians. However, with inflation running well above the ECB's tolerance rate of 2 percent, the central bank is likely to see the slowing of growth more as a solution than as a problem.

A Mild US Recession

Despite signs of increasing financial strains, the US economy achieved almost 5 percent annualized growth in the third quarter of last year. Economic data that became available through Christmas indicated that the economy was still expanding through November. The data since late December, however, suggest that economic activity has been no better than flat and probably modestly declining since very late last year. The economic data do not indicate an economy that is crashing into steep recession.

The three most recent monthly employment reports have shown small declines in private-sector jobs. Weekly initial unemployment claims have risen from around 300,000 to slightly over 350,000. Residential investment continues to decline. The boom in nonresidential construction appears to have peaked. Data on durable goods orders and shipments suggest weak or even declining business equipment investment. As should be expected in the face of falling home prices and household wealth, sharp increases in energy and food prices, and stagnating employment, real consumer spending has not increased since November—but it has not declined.

Net exports are probably continuing to improve, but this will not be enough to offset weakness in the other components of final demand. Annualized real GDP growth in the first quarter will likely be modestly negative—probably between minus one-half and minus one percent in the first quarter. (And, if there is a modestly positive result, it will probably reflect an upsurge in inventory investment, which is not a positive sign for future growth.)

The second quarter may see moderation in the pace of decline of residential investment, but the other elements of domestic demand are likely to remain weak. Another quarter of modestly negative real GDP growth now seems to be the most likely outcome. Whether this will be enough to persuade the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to proclaim an official recession is not clear, but I would now put the likelihood of such a recession at over 50 percent.

By June, the tax cuts from the recently passed fiscal package will be flowing into consumers pockets, bumping up consumer spending mainly in the third quarter. Some, not unreasonable, forecasts suggest that the stimulus could induce as much as a 5 percent annualized gain of real consumer spending in the third quarter, implying a considerable temporary boost to GDP growth. My view is more restrained, partly because I expect that businesses will absorb some of any surge in consumption spending (particularly for durables) into reductions in inventories.

On the other hand, businesses have kept inventories quite lean for the past three years, and there is no indication of a general inventory overhang (aside from the stockpile of unsold homes, which is not counted in business inventories). Sharp declines of inventory investment into negative territory have been a feature of all ten postwar recessions. It is a positive sign that the magnitude of any inventory correction in the present episode appears likely to be limited.

In sum, the prospect is that with the benefit of the fiscal stimulus, the US economy will bounce back to moderately positive growth this summer. By then the massive contraction of residential investment, which began two years ago, should be complete—with new home building running just below one million units, less than half of its recent peak level. Growth of consumer spending is likely to be weak after the effects of the stimulus are spent, but inventory investment should bounce back, and net exports may be expected to continue to make positive contributions to GDP growth. During the second half of 2008, it is reasonable to expect growth to rebound to 2 to 3 percent.

The suggested pattern of modestly falling GDP in the first half and moderate rebound in the second half implies that real GDP will show a very meager advance of about one-half percent on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis. Year-over-year real GDP growth would be barely more than 1 percent. In comparison, in the 2001 recession—the mildest of the postwar era—fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter growth was 0.4 percent and year-over-year growth was 0.8 percent.

The 2001 recession was followed by an initially weak recovery, with real GDP growing at only a 1.7 percent rate during the six quarters after the official end of recession, and with the unemployment rate continuing to rise to a peak of 6.3 percent in May 2003. On this occasion, I expect that the economy will remain quite sluggish through 2009, with growth proceeding at about a 2 percent annual rate. Weak growth of consumer spending in the face of significant losses of household net worth associated with lower real home values will be the key reason for this sluggishness.

Partly offsetting weak consumer spending growth will be continued improvement in US net exports, reflecting both slow import growth and continued rapid export growth. With the usual lag, the substantial depreciation of the dollar over the past year will contribute to the improvement in US net exports in 2009 and beyond.

We see here what I earlier called "reverse coupling." From 1995 through 2004, relatively strong growth of domestic demand in the United States and the effects of a strong dollar (with lags extending this effect) led to persistent deterioration in US real net exports. Thus, the United States was exporting demand to the rest of the world at a time when domestic demand growth in the rest of the world was relatively sluggish.

This process has been operating in reverse since the summer of 2006. Slower domestic demand growth in the United States, combined with stronger demand growth abroad and the effects of a significantly weaker dollar, have begun to significantly improve US real net exports. Thus, during the past year and a half, the rest of the world economy has been helping to pull the US economy along. This process may continue for several years as consumer spending growth in the United States remains restrained by the effects of lower household wealth, making room for expanding the supply of US net exports without contributing to inflationary pressures in the United States. For this process to continue relatively smoothly, however, the rest of the world needs to sustain reasonably robust demand growth and the United States needs to avoid too sharp a decline in domestic demand. The adjustment of the foreign exchange value of the dollar, which is essential for this process, is now largely complete, except for the needed appreciations of some Asian currencies, most notably the Chinese renminbi.

Turmoil in Global Financial Markets

A key feature and source of uncertainty in the present economic situation is the continuing turmoil in financial markets, especially in the United States but with spillovers to Europe and to a limited extent (so far) to Japan and emerging markets. Global equity markets have sold off amidst the turmoil, but markets for credit instruments and financial institutions dealing in such instruments have been most affected.

Three issues concerning this financial-market turmoil deserve special attention:

(1) What has caused this financial turmoil, notwithstanding strenuous efforts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks to contain it?

(2) What risks does it pose to the global economy?

(3) Have the policy responses been adequate and appropriate?

Regarding the causes of the turmoil, it is noteworthy that it has been most severe in US financial markets and institutions. Europe and, to a lesser extent, Canada and Japan have also been affected. In these other countries, a few institutions (such as the mortgage lender Northern Rock in the United Kingdom) have gotten into trouble on their own, related to their domestic activities. But most of the problems faced by non-US institutions have arisen because of their involvement with financial instruments originating in the United States.

In the United States, the initial underlying difficulties arose from subprime mortgages and financial instruments involving such mortgages. However, the crisis is much broader and deeper and has gone on longer than can plausibly be explained by this underlying cause. Across quite a broad spectrum, credit markets have become illiquid and dysfunctional. Interest rate spreads relative to US Treasury obligations have shot up and remained high and volatile even for higher-quality credits. Markets for important classes of bundled instruments have frozen up, and values for some of these instruments—to the extent that they can be determined—have plummeted. All this turmoil, well beyond what can plausibly be explained by developments in the real economy, indicates that financial markets and institutions themselves are mainly responsible for the crisis.

The extent of this crisis in credit markets is even more remarkable in view of the exceedingly aggressive actions taken by the Federal Reserve and the important but less aggressive actions of other leading central banks. Contrary to the nonsense spoken by many financial-market commentators, the Federal Reserve has not been "behind the curve" in its policy response. In fact, the easing of US monetary policy in the present possible recession has far outstripped the pace of easing in past actual recessions. On top of this, the Federal Reserve has recently taken truly extraordinary actions to extend specific liquidity support to a wide range of US financial institutions.

The official explanation for these extraordinary actions is not that they are motivated primarily by the desire to protect financial institutions from losses but rather to head off the risk of major damage to the general economy spreading from difficulties in the financial sector. So far, however, there is little indication that the general economy is suffering much damage from the credit market turmoil—beyond some deepening of the downturn in US residential investment. In particular, the present slowdown in the US economy and around the world is not much more than what we would normally have expected in view of falling home values, higher food and energy prices, and other developments aside from the turmoil in credit markets.

Does this imply that the Federal Reserve, in its efforts to protect the financial sector, has overreacted to the credit market turmoil? Has it eased too aggressively, unduly raising the risk of inflation down the road? Has its rescue of the financial sector by cutting massively the cost of funds and the provision of specific liquidity support generated far too much moral hazard relative to the value of the protective effect of these actions against real hazards faced by the general economy?

At this point, the answers to these questions are not entirely clear, but two conclusions can be reached with high confidence. First, given the massive easing already undertaken by the Federal Reserve and the likelihood of some modest further easing, the US economy now needs to undergo at least a near recession if the Federal Reserve's easing is not to be excessive. Second, if the Federal Reserve's highly aggressive actions have really been warranted to protect the economy from substantial harm, then deep reforms of the financial system, including the Federal Reserve's policies and practices, are clearly needed to reduce the likelihood of such problems in the future. The Federal Reserve cannot pose only as the hero riding to the rescue of the economy and the financial system. Its role as one of the villains whose earlier actions and inactions contributed to the present crisis needs to be fully and carefully assessed.


Table 1 Real GDP growth projections as of April 3, 2008 (percent change, year over year)





Note

1. The figures for global GDP growth are aggregated from the growth rates for individual countries using purchasing power parity (PPP)–based measures of exchange rates employed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook (WEO). Based on a major study supported by the World Bank, estimates of PPP exchange rates have recently been substantially revised, with the general result that the weights in world GDP of the industrial countries have been somewhat increased while those of emerging-market economies have been correspondingly reduced. Because emerging-market economies, most notably China and India, have been growing far more rapidly than most industrial countries in recent years, the effect of the revision in PPP exchange rates is to lower the figure for global growth (without changing growth rates for individual countries) by about 1/2 percentage point. Thus the present estimate for global growth of 4 3/4 percent in 2007 under the new PPP-based exchange rates corresponds to an estimate of 5 1/4 percent growth under the old weights. The weights used in table 1 are estimates of the weights that the IMF will use for the forecast to be reported in the current WEO.

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RESPONSE FROM MELBOURNIAN AND COUNTER-RESPONSE FROM NIK ZAFRI - IN GLOBAL MALAYSIAN FORUM

Melbournian : A very lengthy analysis that echos familiar cliche from "soft-landers". My only comment is that there are two important factors that seems to be absent from his presentation: ie the component of human emotion and the lack of accountability in the derivative instruments that are prevalent in recent years. The health of credit market depends un-surprisingly on market "credibility". Quite akin to the railroad stock bubble and the (in)famous tulip futures fiascos in the past , the total sum of global derivatives todays seems to have exceeded the true intrinsic values of the actual goods and services that these instruments are supposed to underpin. Laws of conservation and Newton's principle of inertia are no longer relevant. No longer can one confidently say for sure that one man's gains equal in exactitude to another's losses. Containment ? Lets hope and pray.

Nik Zafri :

Hi Melbournian, I must say that I'm impressed!

This research seem to miss out "CCI" (Consumer Confidence Index) which I think suitably describes what you meant by 'human emotion' in the context of economics. (it's obvious isn't it....the article is touching on 'purchasing power', 'manpower', business surroundings - which are all linked to the CCI)

Surprisingly I have also discovered that the Global CCI have always been missing (in fact seldom being measured) But; in US; it will suddenly 'appear' during proposal to hike interest rates by the Feds - hence one of the main indicators to the performance of the stock market worldwide.

I can understand why the CCI is sometimes there and sometimes not there...it's because of the big variance between one country to another. CCI is suppose to be the consumption indicator for GDP.

Lack of accountability on derivative instruments

What you have said - coincidentally reminding me of the core of Management - it is said that :

"Responsibility is a derivative of authority and accountability is a derivative of responsibility"

It's a paradox - I do not know if there is any connection.

Anyway, in this case, the derivative instrument (to the accounting standards esp. balance sheet) becomes a concern when it involve hedging and embedded derivatives (contract) - to determine of whether they (derivatives) are liabilities or asset. Otherwise positioning of finance and determining the derivatives value cannot be accurately achieved.

I'm not a qualified accountant but I do know the affects of hedging either the normal fair value, cashflow or currency. Now? As you said and I would to agree to it that most accounting (and auditing) bodies (even in Malaysia) are 'shouting' demanding accountability but again, it is easier said than done unless further education to include hedging activities and the volatility behind them in the context of derivatives are developed further.

Yes, breaking every rule in the book is now trendy!! It is also the reason why I am really interested in the concept of Knowledge-Based Economy and Knowledge Management but of course these two terms are moulded according to my style of intepretation - in short my experience. At times, I never trust figures, data and statistics but I use my instincts to make decisions.

Finally quoting you : "Let's Pray and Hope"

Monday, June 09, 2008

This is an interesting article I've been saving for quite some time now..it's kinda like a 'guide' to me. All credits goes to the AUTHOR of course. (Travis Morien)

http://www.travismorien.com/FAQ/intro/speculate.htm

More than at any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly. - Woody Allen

Aus.invest is, by its very name, supposed to be about investment. In practice much of the discussion is about speculation, there is no aus.speculation newsgroup so in that case it is an appropriate forum, but nonetheless it causes plenty of confusion for readers, new and more experienced.

I define a speculator as someone that seeks to buy and sell in order to take advantage of market price fluctuations. An investor is someone who holds on to securities that provide a good income or capital gain by virtue of them being based on something of real and increasing value.

Alternatively, you could say that a speculator is someone that buys something only because they think someone else will pay more for it in the near future, as opposed to an investor, who buys things because analysis confirms that the investment is of high quality and/or good value, and worth holding. A speculator buys things because they believe a less informed person will buy it off them later at a higher price, an investor buys things because they promise both a return on capital invested, as well as a return of capital invested.

Benjamin Graham, a famous investor in his own right and also notable because he is the man that taught Warren Buffett to invest, defined the difference between speculation and investment in this famous passage from his book The Intelligent Investor


"Imagine that in some private business you own a small share that cost you $1,000. One of your partners, named Mr Market, is very obliging indeed. Every day he tells you what he thinks your interest is worth and furthermore offers to either buy you out or to sell you an additional interest on that basis. Sometimes his idea of value appears plausible and justified by business developments and prospects as you know them. Often, on the other hand, Mr Market lets his enthusiasm or his fears run away with him, and the value he proposes seems to you a little short of silly.

If you are a prudent investor or a sensible businessman, will you let Mr Market's daily communication determine your view of the value of a $1,000 interest in the enterprise? Only in case you agree with him, or in case you want to trade with him. You may be happy to sell out to him when he quotes you a ridiculously high price, and equally happy to buy from him when his price is low. But the rest of the time you will be wiser to form your own ideas of the value of your holdings, based on full reports from the company about its operations and financial position.

The true investor is in that very position when he owns a listed common stock. He can take advantage of the daily market price or leave it alone, as dictated by his own judgement and inclination. He must take cognizance of important price movements, for otherwise his judgement will have nothing to work on. Conceivably they may give him a warning signal which he will do well to heed - this in plain English means that he is to sell his shares because the price has gone down, foreboding worse things to come. In our view, such signals are misleading at least as often as they are helpful. Basically, price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal. At other times he will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies.

The most realistic distinction between the investor and the speculator is found in their attitude toward stock-market movements. The speculator's primary interest lies in anticipating and profiting from market fluctuations. The investor's primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices. Market movements are important to him in a practical sense, because they alternately create low price levels at which he would be wise to buy and high price levels at which he certainly should refrain from buying and probably would be wise to sell."

Another way to define investment related to the way investors value things. If you cannot value something, it is a speculation. This is a broader definition, and tends to exclude most things. The share of any company about which no information is available is speculative, the share of a company that you know enough about to be able to "value" it, even if you can't do so with any great precision, is an investment if the market price is less than or equal to your valuation.

Another quote, from "Graham and Dodd's Security Analysis, 5th edition" by Sidney Cottle, Roger Murray and Frank Block (the modern revised edition of "Security Analysis" originally written by Ben Graham and David Dodd), had this to say about "investors" that buy things without a proper valuation:


"Valuation versus Alternative Procedures for the Analyst:

Assume that a run-of-the-mill common stock is not particularly well suited to a formal valuation because there are too many uncertainties about its future to permit the analyst to estimate its earning power with any degree of confidence. Should analysts reject the valuation technique in such cases and form their opinions about the issue by some other approach? A common stock that cannot be valued with confidence cannot be analysed with confidence. In other words, buying or selling recommendations that cannot be related to a reasonably careful valuation are not based on analysis proper but on what might be called "pseudo-analysis" or "quasi-analysis". In such situations the underlying interest in both the analyst's and the investor's mind is likely to be the probable market action of the stock in some relatively short period in the future. The analytical work done, which may be quite comprehensive, will thus serve as an adjunct to an essentially speculative decision - disguised though it may be under some other name.

Another alternative is to do whatever everyone else is doing, even though the price of a stock appears high; this is the so-called greater fool theory. This theory is applied on the basis that "I know I am a fool to pay such a high price for a stock but I know that a greater fool will come along and pay me an even higher price."

The soundness of a common stock investment, in a single issue or a group of issues, may well depend on the ability of the investor or the analyst-advisor to justify the purchase by a process of formal valuation. In plainer language, a common-stock purchase may not be regarded as a proper constituent of a true investment program unless some rational calculation will show that it is worth at least as much as the price paid for it."

This definition does not mean investors are people who never sell (as many critics of the "buy and hold" philosophy claim), but there are differences between the reasons for an investor sale and a speculative sale. An investor sells when the investment no longer fulfills the criteria that prompted him to buy it in the first place, or if another investment comes along that should provide a superior opportunity to invest. Warren Buffett sells more than 10% of his portfolio every year, so much for the reputation he has for never ever selling a stock. A speculator sells because he anticipates the price is peaking or to realise a profit, usually for reasons unconnected with any notion of "intrinsic value".

"Buy and hold", a doctrine recommended by the majority of investors (in the Graham and Dodd sense of the word), means you buy something with the intention of holding it as long as possible. Therefore, analysis is done on the basis that the business being bought is to be held for quite some time, and there is more of a focus on valuation and the business operations of the company than the price action in the market. The share will be sold if it no longer fulfills the criteria that lead to its purchase in the first place, namely if it becomes so overvalued as to represent a great selling opportunity rather than a great buying opportunity, or if the business deteriorates. Since the characteristics of the business will be reflected in the valuation, overvaluation and business deterioration will be a part of the same phenomenon.

Many critics say that "buy and hold" means buying a stock and holding it for ever, without paying any attention to it. They point to the major companies in the index and note that very few of the companies that were leading lights 100 years ago are still around. Thus, say the critics, buy and hold is foolish. These critics are attacking a "straw man" (Shorter Oxford Dictionary defintion: "an imaginary adversary invented in order to be triumphantly confuted"). I know of no book on "buy and hold" investing that advocates purchasing securities and completely ignoring them, except for those that advocate index funds. Since index funds do change their composition over time as the indexes themselves change, this argument is wholly irrelevant.

Traders, in shares, futures, property, collectibles, bonds or whatever are by their nature speculators, and if they are successful through their skills and superior insights then obviously they are competent speculators. They are out there, traders who make regular profits through an intelligent and structured program of speculation, but they are always wary of risk, in fact the basis of successful speculation is always to manage risk in the most efficient manner possible.

On the other hand, there are the punters who always want a flutter. These are the incompetent speculators. Unaware of the real risks, or perhaps aware in some vague sense of them but simply ignoring them, these people buy hot tips and securities with glamour stories, getting excited about some new venture this security is associated with, and through ownership of the security hoping to make a killing.

Professional speculators are like professional gamblers. There are people out there who play blackjack or poker for a living, taking calculated risks with enormous amounts of money, seeking to maximise their edge with sophisticated techniques and a mind that is well tuned to probabilities and risks vs rewards. Some of them make millions, there is no doubt at all that by playing a game with statistical biases, and seeking over time to take profits from these biases, one can actually make a living from gambling.

On the other hand, the world is full of the social wreckage caused by gambling. The unwise and impatient litter the wayside, though there is no shortage of people willing to take their place. You can only profit from gambling when your probability of winning is greater than the probability of the other side winning, and casinos employ gifted mathematicians to make sure the rules of the game favour the house.

Professional speculators are as far above the public in terms of sheer talent, dedication and intelligence as professional gamblers are above the tipsy chain-smoking denizens of the casino floor.

To become a professional speculator you have to live and breathe the market you want to speculate in. All those people buying collectible china and antiques are up against the true connoisseurs. Those who know the market from the inside, and can spot a rare gem when it comes along, and have the cash needed to buy it, and the body of experience to know exactly what this item is worth (regardless of how aesthetically pleasing or otherwise that it may be).

Professional traders think of little else. Far from the 5-minute-a-day business that is advertised by the guru wannabes that advertise "systems", trading is a lifestyle that can be embraced by only a rare person. Traders become aware of all the pertinent fundamental information, including consensus estimates and bullish/bearish market sentiment.

Professional speculators in mining issues read all the trade journals in mining and probably know a thing or two about how to read the jargon of the analytical chemist in the labs and the geologist breaking rocks, or the meaning of the various exotic electronic sensing devices used today. A technology speculator needs to know a thing or two about science, engineering and electronics as well, so as to keep up with the state-of-the-art and separate the good ideas from the blue sky ideas.

A trader doesn't always try to forecast though. The blackjack player does not need a newsletter writer to tell him what card will be next so he just plays the probabilities and tries to control his risk, usually with some kind of mathematically based money management system. Similarly in stocks and futures, few traders know or care what the market is going to do next. They sit back, do their analysis and try to think in terms of possible upside potential and downside risk, determine where they might enter the market and where they will exit if the market should move the opposite way.

Can you do this? Well sure, there is nothing to stop someone from picking up these kinds of skills, but you won't do that by subscribing to any newsletter, or paying a thousand dollars for some kind of formula or indicator that some guy says will tell you when to buy and sell. Not that there aren't plenty of people who do sell such things though, in investment more than anything else there are plenty of people who demand such a service. Everyone wants to know what the experts think about the future direction of the market, while nothing like it appears in the newspapers, surely someone that works in an investment bank knows what is going on, or a fund manager, or some sort of pro?

To every demand there will rise a supply to meet it. Since there are no genuine and ethical people who can give an easy answer, the void can (and is) only filled with players that exploit the gullibility and ignorance of their customers.

A businessman does not seek advice on how to run his business, except in a general sense or perhaps get an expert with certain management talents who can fix a specific problem. You don't get anyone offering a service though where complete businesses are offered and you are told how to run them and it all takes only a few minutes of time per day once you pay them your money. (Except maybe for franchise businesses, but there is no parallel between a franchise and speculation, so forget it!) To those professional speculators, speculating is their business, their full time job. Most put in considerably more hours into their trading than the average person puts into their job, and unless you really love trading you certainly don't find yourself any better off as a trader.

The reality is that you can make money as a professional speculator, but it is not at all easy. No one can tell you how to do it specifically, they can only give a small amount of guidance while you have to do a huge amount of work. Traders work very hard at their trading, doing enormous amounts of research and keeping track of a huge amount of information. Don't even consider becoming a very serious trader unless that is all you want to do. Most newsletter gurus aren't traders at all, they advise on methods they have developed with only theoretical simulated testing. It is very time consuming writing a newsletter, and even more so trading. As gurus have just as many hours in their day as the rest of us, it is clear that the lifestyle they paint, with their luxury houses and heaps of free time, holidays in exotic locations and massive incomes is entirely incompatible with that of a professional trader. Not that traders haven't written books, there are a few good ones around, but one thing that is for sure is that no genuine trader would have the time to write, edit and publish a weekly newsletter.

Don't give up your day job if you aren't already a trader. You can start out with it by riding a few uptrends on some large cap stocks, despite what they say about trading being hard it doesn't take a genius to buy BHP when it has been steadily rising for a week or two on the back of improving commodity prices, and sell a week later at a 20% profit. If you did that and you really enjoyed it, and I mean REALLY enjoyed the market then maybe you might have the passion.

Traders get out of bed at 6am to see the close of a foreign market and the opening of another one, they read all the journals (not the tip sheets, I mean reputable financial newspapers) and track a number of markets. They watch out for opportunities and they are fast in taking them, and equally fast in getting out if they turn out to be wrong. They don't necessarily use the super-duper software or subscribe to a $1,000 a month data service for NASDAQ day traders, but they are in there anyway, around the newsgroups and reading all the commentary (sometimes so they can go contrarian when strong consensus is obvious).

Why do traders do this? Well of course there is the money, though not as many as you would think make a very high income, they do it because they love doing it. They find the vacillations of the market to be entirely fascinating and immersive, they gain pleasure from seeing the market move with them, but don't take it personally when it doesn't so they get out quickly. They don't trade to live, they live to trade. Far from the glamourous operator pulling up to the curb in a Maclaren F1 sports car to attend a society social event, many traders are reclusive, sometimes a little nutty and definitely obsessed. Trading is their favourite thing in the whole wide world, they would not want to take a yacht to the Bahamas, as that would drag them away from their trading.

Will you be able to buy that kind of intensity? Can a software package that scans the market for some sort of trigger signal provide you with the kind of skill and knowledge to keep up with those guys? Will a $10 a minute hotline to some guru really provide the insights you need? Bear in mind that a real trader would be too busy to talk to you during market hours, and would not welcome a bunch of whining beginners desperate for some tips. Can a few lessons turn you into a virtuoso?

At least with music you don't go broke if you don't play well at first, you have the chance to practice for many years before you get your night in the spotlight. Even paper trading isn't real practice, unless you have real money in the market you will always kid yourself, thinking as hindsight rolls in that in the real thing you would not have taken that trade at all because it was so obvious it wouldn't have worked. No!

On the other hand, investment isn't a particularly hard thing to do. Anyone, regardless of intrinsic talent can do it. The stock market has a certain long term return that beats inflation comfortably. Purchases of a conservative portfolio of leading stocks will provide returns along the same lines as the market, even better (sometimes) you could buy units in an index tracker fund. Purchasing ordinary real estate in an attractive area that has enjoyed consistent gains for decades is also a good investment, and again requires no special skill.

Is investment better than speculation? Well you won't make massive profits in a few days if you are investing, but you make respectable profits in time. Speculators don't always lose money, but the inept ones do. There is nothing inherently superior about either approach, though one thing that is for certain is that only a minute proportion of the population will ever (or could ever) be highly successful speculators, you rely on being much better than 99% of other people and you have to maintain that superiority for as long as you speculate. On the other hand, if every single person in the world was an investor, it would simply mean that wealth would be fairly and equitably shared, with all sharing in the prosperity that can be gained by living in a capitalist society.

I am not against speculation, but when I speculate I do so knowing the difference between speculation and investment. Trouble arises when people confuse the two and look for hot tips to invest. This FAQ should tell you a little bit about how to do better at both of these, but you should never ever think you are an investor if what you are doing is in fact speculation. You can be both, but not at the same time (not with the same stock anyway, though you can have two portfolios if you want to).

There are of course differing definitions of speculation. An efficient market theorist will define investment as holding a large diversified (but otherwise randomly chosen) portfolio that will give returns commensurate with the market as a whole. It defines speculation as any attempt to beat this by analysis of any form, including technical, fundamental or otherwise.

Others define speculation by the knowledgability of the investor, but this is not a very useful definition really. The dictionary defines speculation as attempting to profit from market price appreciations, this is definitely the most useful definition.

You are probably an investor if:

You are buying a portfolio of quality issues at a reasonable price.

You either content yourself with returns that are average for the investment type, or focus on the best value issues of the type for superior returns.

The portfolio is made up of issues with a strong track record, or is managed by people with a strong track record.

You can justify your purchase with reasonable projections of profits that are not out of line with historical returns for ventures of this type.

You buy something because the price has fallen so the yield (dividend, rent or otherwise) has risen to the point that it is superior to alternative investments, and you have substantial reason to believe that the investment won't completely go bust.

You buy because you notice the stock is trading at a price below fundamental valuations.

You sell because of deteriorating fundamentals in the investment, or you need the cash for something meeting your buy criteria even more closely.

Market quotations are there only for your convenience, you may choose to sell if the investment looks absurdly expensive, or to buy when you see the opposite, but other than that you ignore volatility.

You keep a close eye on those who manage your investments (including managers of the company you hold shares in), looking for prudence, logical capital allocation and conservative expansion. You would rather not invest with a high profile celebrity CEO that promises huge growth with a series of rapid takeovers.

Tax efficiency is important, and you take after-tax returns into account when weighing up various options.


You are probably a good speculator if:

You understand the risk and are taking positive measures to limit that risk. In fact risk management is your bread and butter.

You are taking steps to bring about a higher return than average by keeping a close eye on your stocks and constantly riding the ups in price but selling out and waiting for the end to the downs.

Of the many issues you are watching this one seems to have the highest probability of doing well over the time frame of your trading style.

You anticipate a price increase but have a plan in place in case it doesn't.

You track a large amount of information that may have an effect on prices, and get ready to act if this information doesn't seem to be already reflected in the price.

You are well tuned with the pulse of the market you are in, and ready to leave before the herd does.

You buy at the early signs of upturn after the price has fallen, but are ready to close your position rapidly of you turn out to be wrong.

You are mindful of the overall trend in prices.

You buy the best value investment of its type during a boom.

You buy something with the strongest upward price momentum.

You sell because you notice a trend change.

Market quotations are your bread and butter, you want the very latest information and lots of it.

You don't trust anyone else with your money, the stupid cattle on the opposite side of the trade from you don't know what they are missing and all those gurus are just crooks.

Tax effective investments probably don't interest you as they are too long term and you can make more money trading. You don't trust the promoters of these schemes anyway.


You are probably a mug speculator if:

You verbally acknowledge risk but ignore it, allocating a large proportion of your money to this one venture.

Risk management simply amounts to nodding your head saying you realise that there is of course a risk, but doing absolutely nothing to take steps to limit, or even properly identify risk.

You are trying to bring about a very high return by buying something that looks exciting, but you aren't too sure how the business works.

You are buying something because someone you know told you it was good.

You have absolutely no idea what else is out there because you haven't really checked, but this one looks good.

You think it is a sure thing to go up.

You buy something that has fallen a lot because you don't think the price can go any lower.

You find out the price crashed a week after it happens in a conversation with your friend that "understands this sort of thing".

Rene Rivkin says on TV that he "likes it a lot" so you buy it.

You don't understand how people make money in the investment.

You are trying to pick the very bottom to buy, or the exact top to sell.

You will pay anything for an investment because prices are booming.

You buy because it has gone up a lot.

You sell because you want to take a profit.

Rises in the price excite you, but as terrifying as it is to you, you don't take any action during the dips because it is just a "paper loss" and you know it isn't really a loss unless you sell. If it gets back in the black though you'll rapidly sell out and pocket the cash so you won't lose face over it.

You want someone to tell you what to buy next, and even though the last 20 newsletters you subscribed to cost you lots of money, you haven't quite given up on newsletters just yet, you also own the latest and greatest automatic software to free you from all that dull boring analysis.

You buy any investment that promises to save you tax.
Just got an e-mail (Judging by the style of query, I think the person is either 'economist' or could well be 'an investor') asking me 'what is 'asymmetry'?

Click Here for the definition on the web especially :

"Unequal distribution about one or more axes"

"a branching pattern or shape that lacks a line of symmetry on either side of a median plane"

"Irregular, uneven; without symmetry; having no center or axis where something can be divided evenly"

and on the question how asymmetrical factors relate to the stock market or in the context what we're talking now...KLCI...Click Here for a sample research....(and a very good one too)

Then I think having read these, the forumer will agree on the use of the word 'asymmetry'...

And on the final question of how to become a good 'forecaster' (like Ariffin), in theory, you should first determine 'standard deviation' (e.g. 150-200) and 'correlation efficient' (0.90++) with a typical disclaimer that the price may fall within +/- 2 or 3 times the standard deviation. Alas, this is only a theory - I'm still biased to 'empirical factors' (experience) and 'justification of figures' + 'hunch/intuition' (of course with these combined strengths, you can almost determine the deviation and correlation + tolerance)

But I sincerely wish you would talk openly in this forum as we need your inputs as well. Don't just 'peep-in' and become 'observers'.
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The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted : 03 January 2007 at 12:21pm

arifin34 wrote:
Oops.... sorry again. I'm apologising cos I don't want to offend anyone, esp. to you all, my dear friends. Oklah, I'm just an ordinary 'economic chartist' (Fred Tam prefers me to stake claim as a 'chartist' or 'technical analyst' - that's coming directly from him) who happens to be trained in develoment economics.... so I think I understand quite a bit on what the other forumers are talking about in this tread (most of you are really farsighted - that augurs well for this thread

hey Brigitte aren't the GMN people up there thinking of awarding some kind of Awards as an added incentive?!).

I said 'quite a bit' cos nobody actually knows what's going to happen in the real world. Economists are good (very good) at making simplifying assumptions in their analyses. No two economists think alike, I guess... that's why some people even make jokes about the economics profession - a dismal science they say! Why, even the famous London School of Economics placed 'Economics' under the Social Sciences. And mind you, that was George Soros' alma matter!

The other irony is that not all economists are exposed to the capital markets (bourses included) even though (to me) "the stock market is the panaceae of capitalist economics"! Most economists I knew were at lost when discussing about the stock market - they knew about the theoretical objectives of having one but not of how it works, and more importantly how one can read and figure out the direction of the trends. That's FORECASTING... and I have learned it not at the universities but purely thru SHELF STUDY.

I hope you people realise what I'm trying to say. You see, the good point is: You don't have to be an economist to be a stock market expert but having some economics background really helps - even though sometimes the two don't jive. And last but not least, brush up your knowledge in ICT (e.g. master the tools in the softwares) ..... and become more of a 'pakar ekonomi' & 'pakar IT' rolled up into one, as in the lyrics of 'Keranamu Malaysia'. Then you'll be unbeatable.... and with a bit of luck you can even Beat the Markets!

Bye, c u next year!

From an 'economic chartist' (or ist it a 'charting economist'?).

I like to agree to Fred Tam. I share the thinking that an economic chartist is also a technical analyst (not 'or' but 'and') - you're just being humble..that's all.

Lemme have the honour of 'analysing' you Bro Ariffin, I haven't done this in a long time - so you must excuse my rusty knowledge

Technical Analysis

Although in your posts, there are still conventional patterns of taking into account past investment returns/prices and relating price vs current value of expected cash flow from investment, I've also noticed some strong elements of quantitative investment analysis in almost ALL your posts which relates further to other variables (e.g. account ratio? - overpriced stocks or stocks with higher ratios of market price to equity book value may generate lower risk-adjusted returns) and there have been attempts using chaos, fractal, & neural. (am not sure about AI)

Charting

Then I'm assuming, you start plotting past prices vs time using charts to detect downward/upward trend which you have always 'predicted' to continue (trend persistence).

You're not too fast cos' it's dangerous for investors but you 'play along' with the flow of 'educating cum alerting' so that people like me can understand and absorb what you're talking about.

To all forumers, charting is not simply hypotheses but it requires a gread deal of experience cos' investors are getting more knowledgeable everyday. It's not simply depending on softwares or system that proclaimed can do everything for you.

Charting 'the bro Ariffin way' (or Fred Tam's way) can also ascertain the trend limit based on peaks/troughs connections and resistance/support levels, osciillators/schochastics - price positioning measurement vs low/high price/momentum and of course empirical factors - using your intuition to expect some 'drastic/erratic' volatilities and investor's psychology.

- that's where we (and/or 'investors') know when to buy or to sell or simply put as 'bear/bull' (also very useful to 'futures' as well)

Additionally - what johndoe said in his views on KLCI 07 is also very accurate - "The stock market is just like wheat harvesting. After a great harvest, the farm must be burned down into ashes creating a natural fertilizer for the next planting/harvest"

whereby I self-termed as the fiscal first quarterly effect - usually after December, there'll be a year-end liquidity rise & tax loss trading reduction - so you should be expecting good times for January, February (but probably not end March) unless what have been promised are being fulfilled -> implementation/performance/ transparency <- the real stuff that I like to see (This para is also self-explanatory of why in some posts, I'm a bit reserved in the KLCI future predictions - but this 'reservation' doesn't imply that I'm pessimistic)

Thus, the abovementioned JohnDoe's views should be intergrated with ariffin's charting/analysis - then investors should be safe!

On my side ; on the other hand; have always been 'picked up here & there' (multiple styles) of looking into the trend + asymetrical/psychological effects (spectral) on stock values/economy - triggered by political party assembly, elections or equivalent (depending on the chosen candidates - what they talk about/promise, economy gameplan, policies etc.), Yes...corporate good governance, delivery systems, book value, blah-blah-blah as well.

Other psychological factors may also relate to 'force majeur elements' that I've mentioned in one of my recent posts, such as war, environmental issues, natural disasters etc. Don't forget big events such as games & competitions (spurious correlation) such as World Cup, Olympic Games etc.

Other variables - currency movement (depreciate/appreciate?) vs inflation vs growth, inequilibrium in trade balances etc. Investors must also have knowledge on the industries/products/operations/core-business processes that they have interest in.

To be on safer side, Ariffin + John + Nik's modus operandi - you'll be a super knowledgeable investor..hehehehe.