SIMPLE THINGS FIRST - BUDGET AND SPENDING CUTS HERE AND THERE. REDUCE BORROWING! - Nik Zafri

Just a thought. (It's been quite sometime since I've written anything about Knowledge Based Economy - Mind you, I am NEITHER a qualified economist or forecaster, I would rather say that I am the DIY type of economist, the street smart style - so don’t take my views oo seriously especially when making formal economic decision..it’s just my personal views.)

I think the new Government efforts to improve Malaysia's economy would eventually result in a boost!! (Reduce corruption, declaration of wealth by high officials, reduce dependence on foreign workers, eliminate GST etc)

To start with, there have been efforts to improve market self-regulation, efficiency and innovation rather than worrying about inflation and asset bubbles (like what typical bankers would do) Supply and demand equilibrium (Keynes) should already become HISTORY. Capital markets will not work properly if financial element are not being looked at. We are also forgetting how Corporate Governance principles being discarded and the disasters that came afterwards were unimaginable (Enron)

But the ones that is really suffering is the common PEOPLE like me...

Apart from depending too much on FDI and trade volumes, efforts to focus on Malaysia’s domestic economy as a priority is not being neglected.

I remember reading some case studies involving Denmark and Ireland where both countries succeeded in reducing country's deficits; ironically according to Keynes probably this will cause recession; but to everyone's surprise, the economies of both countries got out of the recession very quickly. Malaysia can too and we are doing it by cutting the spending and other kinds of "cuts here and there".

But please, let the interest rates stay for now, do not lower or increase them FOR ANY REASON (unless our currency rates and exchange are stable and under control) - yeap, we might lose something along the way, but think of the long term positive impact. (just like the Tun M's legendary pegging of Ringgit against USD in the past). And Feds : no more "scaring forecast" about "hike in interest rates" - it will cause panic in the global stock market!

One of the reasons of Denmark and Ireland's success; I think; is the rejection; to the idea of borrowing to improve purchasing power of the people - well guess what? Many people save rather than spending!! Surprisingly, the cancellation of GST might improve the purchasing power..hence improve customer confidence..hence improve stock/share market!

So, the lesson that I’ve learnt is that the most difficult model is trying to "assume the economics of human behaviour" (Well, you can't!)

I also share the idea of "making more debts" are NOT working anymore, since it has been proven that "borrowing" HAD directly affecting the economy especially in the past : when politics are mixed with economical decisions and policies.

So, I think the "monetary funds entity" should be making some changes on their economic and financial perspectives - no more "Free Trade" and how this will so-called affect employment opportunity, capital and labour.

So, between less borrowing VS budget cuts...I go for budget cuts.

Many people still like to think “in the box” despite claims that “they are thinking out of the box” hahaha. Example that if A is done, B will follow and the "soothsayer shamans" will start forecasting that a certain country's economy will fall. There was not even sufficient space provided for the economy to prove itself first in a certain period of time (self-regulation)

Funny, recession forecasts many times have been proven WRONG. Take Brexit for example - many believes that the UK economy will be "very bad"...but UK’s economy has improved! So will countries leaving EU, it may have a short term impact but in the long run, look at "exiting" countries now? (Did it work?...YES)

Trust me, I "predict" some smart alecs will start forecasting negatively on the TPP issue if Malaysia decided to pull out. (kudos to US to take such action) So, if Brexit works good on UK’s current economy, TPP also works for the US, so Malaysia will also benefit as well if a pull-out from TPP is to happen.

Forecasters sometimes (not all) tend to safeguard their professionalism and the forecast must be made in line with politics - so, the results are : economic chaos. (well, forecasters are not always right! They are just doing their job by painting rosy pictures) Models; they used; NEVER predicted economical crisis or recession or depression. That's where problem will start. Need I say more?

Experiencing and learning from the bad past to create an economic model of reference can be good but by frequently using the past as “a gospel” it will definitely put the economy in a causality loop - "repeating the same mistake" over and over again.

One Cambridge study says the loss peaks at 3% of GDP early in the 2020s. The loss of GDP per head is smaller – never much more than 1% – and soon recovers (The Guardian) I think this is a brave economic model. Remember, GDP is NOT the only indicator of economics. We need more Cambridge-Oriented type of innovations.

I am looking into Austria, they seemed to do things their own way and it is working.

HAIL TO THE POWER OF KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY

WHAT'S DRIVING GOLD?

(A)

Cause :

Growth in World Money Supply

Years of easy monetary policies by central banks and now the trillions of dollars in economic stimulus to fight the global recession

Effect :

Inflationary Pressures

Excess cash in marketplace eventually tends to bid up prices for goods and services

Possible Ramifications

Declining Confidence in Paper Money

The prospect of inflation lowers confidence in Paper money a a store of value leading may investors to buy gold to preserve their wealth

(B)

Cause :

Volatile Stocks and Oil Prices

After several bull market years, stock and commodity markets turned down dramatically in 200 as the global economy slid into recession. While markets have partially recovered from their low, they remain volatile and many investors remain focused on capital preservation

Effect

Safe Haven Appeal

With other hard assets like real estate and commodities losing value, there was a revived appreciation of gold as a safe haven for investors seeking to protect themselves during difficult times.

Possible Ramifications

Increased Demand for Gold

The recession of 2008 created a large new class of gold investors. The strong demand exerted by this group, along with traditional gold buyers, drained the global inventory of gold coins and gold bars, thus driving up the price of bullion at a time of shrinking worldwide production.

(C)

Cause :

China

Gold has long been prized in China, which is one of the world's largest producers and consumers. Increasingly China's gold market has become more liberalized

Effect :



Trade Surplus

China has a huge trade surplus with the U.S. and Europe that generates vast quantitites of foreign currency. China also has one of the world's highest savings rates.

Possible Ramifications

China buys a considerable amount of U.S. Government debt, but it is diversifying its reserves by increasing its holdings of gold. In addition, China is pursuing investments to recycle its dollars into natural resource projects.

(D)

Cause :

Low Gold Price in 90s

After climbing as high as $850 an ounce in 1980, gold dropped as low as $252 an ounce in 1999.

Effect :

Cuts in Exploration

Low prices and environmental controls discouraged mining companies from spending the money to find new supplies of gold

Possible Ramifications

Falling Production

The lack of investment during the low-price years means new supplies of gold have not kept pace with gold demand

(E)

Cause :

Low Interest Rate

When real interest rates are low many investors turn away from paper assets with declining value and instead turn towar assets with real value, like gold.

Effect :

Hedging Curtailed

When interest rates are low, there is little incentive for hedging. As a result, gold is removed from the market.

Possible Ramifications

A decline in hedging shrinks short-term gold supply, creating a market imbalance during a time of escalating demand.

(F)

Cause :


Credit Crisis

The U.S. economy has been hurt by tighter liquidity associated with heavy losses in the key housing and financial sectors

Effect :

Interest Rate Cuts by Fed

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates effectively to zero in an effort to lift the economy out of recession

Possible Ramifications

Weaker U.S. Dollar

Rate cuts drive down returns for currency investors. Many of those investors will buy gold as an alternative reserve asset, thus driving up demand.

How are we doing today? Mr. World Economics?
By Nik Zafri - Oct 7, 2009

Ok..to start with - Oil (Asia)...Source NYME - November benchmark crude up 63 cents - $71.51 by 12.30 pm and contract settled at $70.88 - a rise of 47 cents. For US (Dow Jones gaining 1.4%), it's the best achievement and a good sign for prospects of more corporate profits.

A sign of recovery? Perhaps - Oil markets & equities are being driven by this recovery.

There is another paradox though - if crude inventories fall, oil prices may rise further and price will fall if crude stocks rise. I hope if this happens, the strong financial market will back it up.

Global Economic Stimulus Package - I'm glad that our global economy now can withstand higher borrowing cost - despite there are talks about interest hike yet world Governments spending and offers of low interest rates are now emerging.

Next - Inflation vs interest rate hikes. Some countries in the Asia-Pacific Region expected a building trend of inflation (Australia recently raise their key interest rates (official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%) - which is OK to them) due to recent hike 'Downunder' - there is a possibility that 'everyone else' will follow this trend.

Thus, if there is a plan to raise interest...I can understand why (we must be fair to the Banking and Financial instititutions as well) but please monitor the inflation possibilty..if there is such sign (in Malaysia specifically), please control it.

Bonds - Reports came to me that in some countries - Traders are buying after the fall. Yields are retreating (on the benchmark one decade bond yield now closing lower - During the early deals, it's rising due to lacking of buyback news - something to look at before )

Before I move on : Anyone heard of the so called secret talks between the Gulf states? I heard stories about China and Russia are replacing oil trading with dollar which may have caused the decline is USD?

Next - USD vs Gold vs other currency - I think everyone is noticing that USD is falling against major currency. Thus gold are rallying on the bullion markets and silver surges higher. (Dollar is now the 'arc nemesis' to gold = Gold is used for safe hedge against inflation whenever the Dollar is down)

A good article from The Globalist Dot Com where I'm one of the subscriber.

Nik
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Acknowledging China By Jianxiong Zhang | Thursday, February 28, 2008

China's economic boom of the last three decades has raised concerns about resource scarcity, pollution and trade. While China's development has made it one of the world's largest economies, hundreds of millions still live in poverty. Jianxiong Zhang argues that the United States and the European Union must acknowledge China's efforts to address climate change and trade disputes.

In the context of globalization, the economy increasingly influences international relations. This is because strengthening interdependence and intensifying frictions between economies tend to go hand-in-hand. As a result, it is no wonder China is worried about the impacts on its relations with the United States and the European Union.

The scale of China's growth

It is well-known that China's economy has been growing at an average rate over 9% for 27 years now. And, in the past five years, its annual growth rate exceeded 10%.

In 2006, China’s GDP reached $2.6 trillion (in purchasing power terms), or 5% of the world total — ranking fourth in the world.

Growth and poverty

China’s development is as an evolutionary stage, rather than an obstacle to its relations with the United States and European Union.

China has reached the top ranks of economies in the world by GDP — but it still lags behind 109 other countries in terms of per capita income.

China needs to further develop, so as to improve the living standards of its citizens, allowing them to enjoy a life comparable to that in medium-developed countries.

This is their right — and indeed one of their fundamental human rights.

Supporting the world economy

The continual growth in China makes significant contributions to the world economy. Firstly, China’s economy contributed 13.8% of the global GDP growth during the 2003-2005 period.

The rate is second only to that of the United States. That is to say, with China’s continued growth, the world economy will not substantially slide down even if the U.S. economy falls into recession.

Benefits from China

China needs to further develop, so as to improve the living standards of its citizens. This is their right — and indeed one of their fundamental human rights.

Second, cheap goods exported from China are helpful to prevent inflation in its trading partners. Third, the fruits of economic growth in China are shared by industrialized countries in general — and in the United States and the European Union in particular.

They receive a great deal of profits from their place in the international division of labor, and gain significant returns from their financial services, foreign direct investment and patent income from China.

For example, about 20% of revenues from each mobile phone, 30% from each computer and 30-40% from numerically controlled machine tools made in China go to investors or patent owners in the United States, the European Union or other countries.

Concerns from abroad

Kind-hearted people in the rest of the world are happy to see and hail the economic progress in China, for it helps millions of people there escape from poverty. Thus, it brings new impetus to economic growth globally.

However, the United States and Europe are very concerned about the consequences of China’s development. Apart from positive expectations, they wonder what negative impacts China’s development will have on them.

Managing growth

Kind-hearted people in the rest of the world hail the economic progress in China, for it helps millions of people there escape from poverty.

For instance, they wonder whether China will compete for natural resources, energy and markets with them

— and to what extent China’s development will lead to pollution and climate change. A more extreme observation even views China’s development as a “threat.”

As regards climate change, it should be noted that Beijing has already set about tackling the problem.

The Chinese government pursues a policy of “scientific development” and carries out programs to build China into a resource-conserving society, which contain a series of measures to save resources and energy.

Resources in historical perspective

From 1990 to 2005, the energy consumption per thousand dollars of GDP was cut from 2.19 to 1.17 tons of coal equivalent, with an annual reduction rate of 4.1%. This figure, however, as well as greenhouse gases emissions per unit of GDP in China, is still higher than those in the United States and the European Union.

This is largely because the United States and the European Union have been in the post-industrialized stage (where more than 70% of GDP is contributed by service sectors), while China is still in the industrializing stage (where almost half of GDP comes from the industrial sector). This can be changed only by further development — and the change is under way at an accelerating pace.

Tackling climate change

Between close trading partners, disputes are a normal phenomenon. This should not be a factor to undermine relations between them.

The Chinese government set the targets of bringing down energy consumption per unit of GDP by 20%, cutting the total discharge of major pollutants by 10% and increasing forest cover from 18.2% to 20% between the end of 2005 and 2010.

The National Program on Tackling Climate Change released in May 2007 formulates that, by 2010, China will cut CO2 emissions by one billion tons through improving technologies and replacing fossil fuels with renewable energies.

If international cooperation in developing greenhouse gas zero-discharge technologies can be accelerated, the impacts of China’s development on climate change will be further minimized.

The rights of the poor

As for the equitable distribution of energy, as well as natural resources and markets, this matter requires bilateral or multilateral consultations. Such consultations must be carried out on an equal basis.

In this process, two issues should be considered. One is the development right of poor countries. There are quite a few countries in the world where people live a life far below the living standards of industrialized countries.

A sense of equity

If international cooperation in developing greenhouse gas zero-discharge technologies can be accelerated, the impacts of China’s development on climate change will be further minimized.

When distributing the world's resources, rich countries should give more considerations to the interests and rights of poor countries. Up to now, the per capita income in China is just equal to 4.5% of that in the United States, 5% of that Japan, 5.8% of that in the eurozone and 10% of that in South Korea.

There are still 135 million people in China who live on less than $1 per day. There are 750 million such people in the world, of which China accounts for 18%.

The other issue is the principle of equality. According to the World Bank, the 2000 per capita consumption of energy was 3.8 tons of oil in the euro zone, 8.2 tons in the United States — while just 0.9 ton in China. The per capita consumption of energy in the United States is nine times that in China.

Measuring China's growth

At the same time, the per capita rate of CO2 emissions in China was two tons, compared with eight tons in the eurozone and 21 tons in the United States. In 2004, the per capita CO2 emissions in China increased to four tons.

This figure, however, was only 87% of the world average — and 33% of the OECD average.

Accepting disputes, improving relations

Along with China’s development, the trade disputes between it and the United States as well as the European Union are on the rise. Between close trading partners, disputes are a normal phenomenon. This should not undermine relations between them.

The economic structure of China can be changed only by further development — this is happening at an accelerating pace.

Trade disputes occur between the United States and the European Union, the United States and Japan, as well as the European Union and Japan. Since its inception, the WTO dispute settlement mechanism has been mostly used to deal with disputes between the United States and the European Union. The disputes, however, have never undermined the bilateral relationship.

In short, the contributions of China’s development are a net plus — even in light of its negative influences on the rest of the world. The negative effects brought about by development are controllable.

China’s development should be taken as an evolutionary process, rather than an obstacle to its relations with the United States and European Union.
----------------------------------
Here's something better from China Daily

China is not decoupling from US Economy
(Agencies)
Updated: 2008-01-21 10:14

BEIJING - China's central bank on Sunday poured cold water on the idea that the country's economy can decouple from the United States.

China's exports will be badly hit if US consumption weakens, Zhang Tao, deputy head of the international department of the People's Bank of China, told a financial forum.

Figures due this week are expected to show that China's gross domestic product grew more than 11 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007 from a year earlier, despite a deepening US credit crunch.

But Zhang said he saw mounting risks to US consumer demand. He noted that retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.4 percent in December, while property prices were falling and rising petrol prices were crimping disposable incomes.

"If US consumption really comes down, that's bad news for us," Zhang said. "That will have a pretty severe impact on our exports."

Wang Jian, head of the China Society of Macroeconomics, agreed that China's growing trade with Europe was unlikely to insulate it from a drop in exports to the United States.

If US demand weakened, Europe would export less to America and, in turn, would buy less from China, Wang said.

"Global demand is ultimately driven by the United States," he said.

More US interest rate cuts or a further fall in the dollar in response to a weakening economy would have an impact on Chinese monetary policy, Zhang said without elaborating.

He said the subprime crisis would not divert China from the path of financial innovation.

"It will not change our general direction. However, it serves as a warning that we need to pay attention to risk controls and launch new businesses in a steady, orderly way," he said.

Dai Genyou, director of the central bank's credit bureau department, said higher Chinese interest rates would have little impact on the ability of companies to service their debts. Nor would they derail corporate investment plans, Dai said.

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 27 July 2006 at 8:11pm

TYPICAL INDICATORS TO FORECAST ECONOMY

Indicators

a. Prime Interest Rate/Interbank Offerred Rate
b. Mortgage Interest Rate
c. Treasury Yields
d. GDP
e. Crude Oil and Gold Price
f. Unemployment Rate (some look deeper into crime rate)
g. Inflation Rate
------------------------------
Quoting Howard G. Schaefer - In his book 'Economic Trend Analysis for Executives and Investors', Chapter 1 - Introduction

With so many factors to be considered, interpreting economic data is a daunting task. Indeed, attempting to interpret economic data presented in the form of millions, billions, and trillions of dollars is enough to discourage most people. Nevertheless, forecasting economic conditions is an essential element of sound business and investment decisions. To make these decisions executives and investors need a simple and timely method of understanding and evaluating economic data.

Graphs and charts have become very popular for simplifying information. Trend analysis is one of the principal means used to convey economic data to business, investors, and government. That is, statistical data are plotted on a chart so the reader can observe trends. As an example, the index of industrial production for the month of February 1992 was reported as 107.2, representing a 0.4% increase over the preceding January and a 1.4% increase from the preceding year

A published chart showing the trend indicated that the nation's industrial production was improving. But it did not address whether the trend would continue. Executives and investors need to make decisions based on future expectations, not just past performances. Without a consideration of the many factors that affect economic performance, a trend line has limited uses.

A newer technique called relationship analysis provides a much better understanding of economic data and future economic trends than trend analysis. Relationship analysis compares one set of economic data to another to determine whether there is a consistent relationship between the two sets of data that explains current economic conditions and indicates future economic trends. One principal advantage of relationship analysis is that the information is conveyed without the long delay for accumulating the economic data necessary to spot the trend.
--------------------------------
Adapted from the original Posting in The Star Global Malaysians Forum
- Posted: 31 July 2006 at 5:32pm

ECONOMIC FORECASTING - WHAT'S IN IT FOR ME?
(Nik Zafri's version of Forecasting Economy for Dummies)

Most people are scared listening or even coming across economical terminologies. Indeed they (the terminologies) are not ‘laymen user-friendly’. Thus, most of us tend to 'shy away' especially those in small businesses not knowing the consequences of ignoring the current facts/reality of economy. To worsen situation, even the typical accounting tasks such as cash-flow monitoring has been ignored.

Don’t worry, it’s nothing too technical - in fact even economists in many occassions fail to do accurate economical forecasts and most of them end up arguing to defend their hypotheses.

Here’s some simple indicators (what YOU should know – the technical explanations are for the economists to worry about) :

a) GDP – most popular one – to you – don’t wait for the annual results but monitor the implementation of target, if you see in 5-6 months – it’s stil negative, then buckle up.

b) Consumer Price Index – to you – it tells you products/services – price/fee (fluctuations as well) etc. You could almost prophecise that you might be in trouble when you found out that you’re paying MORE than before.

c) Interest rate (it’s rising)– to you - it tells the level of ‘troubleness’ you’re encountering especially if you have a loan to settle.

d) Retail sales – to you – it tells you about your purchasing power, your spending habit, your saving habit, your confidence – you will know or feel these things when you see the word bonus, tax (cut/raise) etc.

e) Employment – to you – well, I guess you’re smart enough to figure this one out. Only two quick tips (out of many) – VSS and unemployed graduates.

The hidden ones are political stability (which you’re also smart enough to know) or 'that look' the traders are giving you when you ask for discounts!