SIMPLE THINGS FIRST - BUDGET AND SPENDING CUTS HERE AND THERE. REDUCE BORROWING! - Nik Zafri

Just a thought. (It's been quite sometime since I've written anything about Knowledge Based Economy - Mind you, I am NEITHER a qualified economist or forecaster, I would rather say that I am the DIY type of economist, the street smart style - so don’t take my views oo seriously especially when making formal economic decision..it’s just my personal views.)

I think the new Government efforts to improve Malaysia's economy would eventually result in a boost!! (Reduce corruption, declaration of wealth by high officials, reduce dependence on foreign workers, eliminate GST etc)

To start with, there have been efforts to improve market self-regulation, efficiency and innovation rather than worrying about inflation and asset bubbles (like what typical bankers would do) Supply and demand equilibrium (Keynes) should already become HISTORY. Capital markets will not work properly if financial element are not being looked at. We are also forgetting how Corporate Governance principles being discarded and the disasters that came afterwards were unimaginable (Enron)

But the ones that is really suffering is the common PEOPLE like me...

Apart from depending too much on FDI and trade volumes, efforts to focus on Malaysia’s domestic economy as a priority is not being neglected.

I remember reading some case studies involving Denmark and Ireland where both countries succeeded in reducing country's deficits; ironically according to Keynes probably this will cause recession; but to everyone's surprise, the economies of both countries got out of the recession very quickly. Malaysia can too and we are doing it by cutting the spending and other kinds of "cuts here and there".

But please, let the interest rates stay for now, do not lower or increase them FOR ANY REASON (unless our currency rates and exchange are stable and under control) - yeap, we might lose something along the way, but think of the long term positive impact. (just like the Tun M's legendary pegging of Ringgit against USD in the past). And Feds : no more "scaring forecast" about "hike in interest rates" - it will cause panic in the global stock market!

One of the reasons of Denmark and Ireland's success; I think; is the rejection; to the idea of borrowing to improve purchasing power of the people - well guess what? Many people save rather than spending!! Surprisingly, the cancellation of GST might improve the purchasing power..hence improve customer confidence..hence improve stock/share market!

So, the lesson that I’ve learnt is that the most difficult model is trying to "assume the economics of human behaviour" (Well, you can't!)

I also share the idea of "making more debts" are NOT working anymore, since it has been proven that "borrowing" HAD directly affecting the economy especially in the past : when politics are mixed with economical decisions and policies.

So, I think the "monetary funds entity" should be making some changes on their economic and financial perspectives - no more "Free Trade" and how this will so-called affect employment opportunity, capital and labour.

So, between less borrowing VS budget cuts...I go for budget cuts.

Many people still like to think “in the box” despite claims that “they are thinking out of the box” hahaha. Example that if A is done, B will follow and the "soothsayer shamans" will start forecasting that a certain country's economy will fall. There was not even sufficient space provided for the economy to prove itself first in a certain period of time (self-regulation)

Funny, recession forecasts many times have been proven WRONG. Take Brexit for example - many believes that the UK economy will be "very bad"...but UK’s economy has improved! So will countries leaving EU, it may have a short term impact but in the long run, look at "exiting" countries now? (Did it work?...YES)

Trust me, I "predict" some smart alecs will start forecasting negatively on the TPP issue if Malaysia decided to pull out. (kudos to US to take such action) So, if Brexit works good on UK’s current economy, TPP also works for the US, so Malaysia will also benefit as well if a pull-out from TPP is to happen.

Forecasters sometimes (not all) tend to safeguard their professionalism and the forecast must be made in line with politics - so, the results are : economic chaos. (well, forecasters are not always right! They are just doing their job by painting rosy pictures) Models; they used; NEVER predicted economical crisis or recession or depression. That's where problem will start. Need I say more?

Experiencing and learning from the bad past to create an economic model of reference can be good but by frequently using the past as “a gospel” it will definitely put the economy in a causality loop - "repeating the same mistake" over and over again.

One Cambridge study says the loss peaks at 3% of GDP early in the 2020s. The loss of GDP per head is smaller – never much more than 1% – and soon recovers (The Guardian) I think this is a brave economic model. Remember, GDP is NOT the only indicator of economics. We need more Cambridge-Oriented type of innovations.

I am looking into Austria, they seemed to do things their own way and it is working.

HAIL TO THE POWER OF KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY

Malaysia Economic Monitor, December 2015 - Immigrant Labour

Key Findings 

The Malaysian economy continues to expand, albeit at a slower pace.

• Growth is projected to be 4.7% in 2015, easing to 4.5% in 2016 and 2017.
• Private consumption growth is expected to moderate from 7.0% in 2014 to 5.3% in 2015 and 2016, affected by the slowdown in disposable income and a softer labour market, though unemployment remains low.
• Fixed investment is projected to continue expanding, driven by strong public infrastructure development, despite a downturn in the oil and gas sector
• The current account surplus is projected to narrow from 4.3% of GDP in 2014 to 2.5% of GDP in 2015, driven by low commodity prices.
• Malaysia has managed the downturn in commodity prices and the financial market volatility with an appropriate policy mix, notably exchange rate flexibility. 
• The authorities have allowed the Ringgit to nominally depreciate by 20.5% from January 2015 until December 8, 2015.
• The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the removal of fuel subsidies were timely and critical reforms implemented by the government. Fuel subsidy removals have led to fiscal savings of 0.9% of GDP, while GST collection is expected to amount to 2.3% of GDP in 2015.
• These measures partly compensated for lower oil related revenues that are projected to decline from 6% of GDP in 2014 (30% of total revenue) to 3.8% of GDP (19.7% of overall revenues) in 2015.
• Fiscal consolidation and resolving political issues can help reassure foreign investors and cope with heightened external vulnerability.

Immigrant labour plays a crucial role in Malaysia’s development. Immigrants – both high- and low-skilled – will be needed for the country to achieve high income status by 2020.

• Malaysia has the fourth largest number of migrants and the seventh highest ratio of migrants to total population in East Asia Pacific.
• There are 2.1 million registered immigrants in Malaysia and likely over 1 million undocumented immigrants, making up 15% of Malaysia’s workforce in 2014.
• As Malaysians have become more educated and seek out higher-skilled jobs, and as the labour market remains tight, immigrant labour has filled gaps in low- and mid-skilled jobs, which make up three quarters of all jobs in Malaysia.
• Econometric modeling suggests that a 10% net increase in low-skilled foreign workers may increase Malaysia’s GDP by as much as 1.1%.
• For every 10 new immigrant workers in a given state and sector, up to five new jobs may be created for Malaysians in that state and sector, two of them female.  
• Economic modelling suggests that a 10 percent net increase in low-skilled foreign workers may increase real GDP by up to 1.1 percent. 
• A 10% increase in immigration flow slightly increases the wages of Malaysians by 0.14%. Yet it significantly reduces salaries of immigrant workers already in the country by 3.94%.  A 10% increase in immigration flow reduces wages of the least-educated Malaysians, which represent 14% of the total labour force, by 0.74%.
• The fiscal burden is mainly borne by undocumented immigrants. Documented immigrants in Malaysia raise employment and wages of Malaysians which in turn contributes to public revenues. Also, levies pay for work permits of documented immigrant workers raising 1.2% of total revenues in 2014, they have to have health insurance which reduces the burden on the government.

Recommendations: Six possible directions for reform for Malaysia to strengthen its immigration system.

• Aligning the institutional and legislative framework with the human resource development strategy;
• Establishing an evidence-based system for identifying labour market shortages that immigrant labour can fill;
• Adopting a live-levy system that responds to labour market needs identified in the evidence-based system;
• Using a broader set of criteria to categorize immigrants (i.e. skills, experience) and defining approaches for their recruitment, employment, and repatriation;
• Strengthening monitoring and enforcement of immigration and labour regulations; and
• Investing in upskilling the unskilled workforce, and promoting productivity-enhancing technology.

(Full report : Please e-mail nikzafri@yahoo.com) 

MY COMMENTS ON MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW - NIK ZAFRI

(Commenting on one of the research published in MIT Sloan - Designing Effective Knowledge Networks)

The article is a nice complement to modules of Hi-Impact Network that I’m currently conducting. I hope that everyone in the Artificial Intelligence industry should be reading this article. It a true representation of state of the art combination of ‘management and technical’.

But the part where :

“We found that good leaders were role models, inspiring members to act, and they did not delegate work such as being online and responding to discussions. They were routinely visible — as a cohesive team — to the community”

Sounds ‘a lil bit’ rethorical (and yes, good leaders do all that)

Unfortunately I still see leaders thinking like typical managers -yet ‘hijacking’ the word leader. More system than functional.

This conventional approach is now loosing its glory as it tends to create fear rather than respect. Even when this ‘leader’ is visible, it looks like ‘checking, inspecting and auditing’ when making rounds. The ‘visibility’ is too frequent which may be misinterpreted as a signal of mistrust.

Tabulation Source - projectmanagerpad.com 

Anyway this is a very scholarly yet practical article/research.

Congratulations.

Nik Zafri

--------------------------------------------

Source : thegipster.blogspot.com

Not many decades ago, Supply and demand is perhaps one of the most fundamental concepts of economics and it is the backbone of a market economy.

But when you really analyze it (I mean really…), you’ll find that there is never an accurate equilibrium in the curves of supply and demand.

This is because, the scenario depends mostly on what type of products and services that you’re selling. If you talk about controlled items, then you can easily relate to controlled raw materials.

Now, here you can’t use the conventional supply and demand as it won’t work!

What should be highlighted is about Knowledge-Based Economy and total reduction of Productivity-Based Economy.

Now, quoting Peter Drucker Chapter 12 in his book The Age of Discontinuity – (which he has said this quite some time ago – the idea of “scientific management” developed by Taylor/Mashlup.

There is; on the other hand; productivity but it is recommended not to be mixed up together as the sole indicator for supply and demand.

There is a lot of justifications needed (which require true factual knowledge and information) to be made even in the laymen term rather than depending merely on the curves.

Thus, the information age will be ready to go for the next wave, Rules, practices needed rewriting in an interconnected, globalized economy where knowledge resources such as trade secrets and expertise are as critical as other economic resources.

Nik Zafri Abdul Majid

K-EKONOMI - EKONOMI MAKRO-MIKRO DALAM 2 MUKASURAT - NIK ZAFRI

Kawalan Emosi dan Psikologi Pelabur dalam Meramal Pasaran Saham – NIK ZAFRI

Nota/Penafian : Artikel ini adalah pendapat peribadi penulis sebagai berkongsi pengalaman kembali (setelah jatuh) membuat pelaburan di pasaran saham.

Kita sering melihat rancangan, segmen berita, wawancara dan lain-lain yang memaparkan perangkaan yang menunjukkan pembetulan dalam pasaran (market correction) tetapi adakah ini satu perkara yang penting perlu kita ketahui?

Saya melihat perubahan mendadak dalam cara kebanyakan penganalisa atau peramal pasaran mencuba sedaya-upaya untuk meramal pasaran saham. Apabila saya meneliti setiap komen, analisa, ramalan yang diberikan – kebanyakannya (bukan semua) – tidak pasti dan sifat ‘playsafe’ atau ‘tunggu dan lihat’ – menjadikan semua pendapat yang diberikan hanyalah teori semata-mata.

Izinkan saya berkongsi sedikit pandangan holistik saya mengenai pasaran saham dan kenapa saya bertanggapan bahawa percubaan untuk meramal pergerakan pasaran saham kadangkala membazir masa dan sumber.

Pertama – kenaikan dan penurunan pasaran saham. Ini kerana pasaran adalah di mana ‘pembeli dan ‘penjual’ bergabung.  Apabila terdapat ramai ‘penjual’ dari ‘pembeli’, maka harga akan turun.  (apabila 'pembeli' ramai dari 'penjual', maka harga saham akan melambung tinggi)

Sebabnya : Dari pengalaman saya sendiri, saya melihat, kadangkala pelabur lebih dipengaruhi perasaan berbanding dengan logik. Apabila bertindak mengikut perasaan, maka pasaran akan menjadi tidak stabil. Maka sebarang ramalan akan menjadi buntu. Sebaliknya jika pelabur bertindak secara logik, maka pasaran juga berpotensi menjadi stabil.

Kedua - Menghabiskan masa terlalu lama di hadapan skrin untuk meramal pergerakan pasaran saham kadang-kadang boleh dianggap sebagai ‘membazir masa’. Adalah lebih baik, kita tumpukan 80% dari masa berkenaan dengan membaca bahan-bahan yang menambahkan pengetahuan pelaburan dan 20% diberikan terhadap skrin.

Ketiga - Pelabur berpengalaman akan tahu bahawa trend sering menunjukkan bahawa bulan Ogos, September (terutamanya September) atau Oktober, akan berlaku sesuatu yang mampu mengubah pergerakan saham, antara lain ialah : 

• Peperangan (terutamanya peperangan yang berlaku secara mengejut)
• kesan asimetrik yang berasal dari luar negara (negara yang dipanggil ‘negara maju’) yang mengalami hutang negara yang sangat besar atau kadar faedah Rizab Persekutuan menjadi terlalu tinggi)
• kadar pengangguran yang sangat tinggi (tandanya : apabila pembayaran gratuiti atau bonus pada 2-3 bulan sebelumnya ‘terlalu tinggi’)
• kenaikan sumber tenaga secara mendadak, seperti petroleum dan diesel (minyak mentah termasuk minyak tanah) - apa yang ganjil ialah fenomena ini diikuti dengan kenaikan bahanapi yang lain seperti arangbatu, hidro dll TERMASUK alternatif seperti minyak sawit dan tenaga solar (saya pun hairan kenapa? - tetapi saya seperti bersedia untuk menghadapi suasana berkenaan)
• kenaikan harga barang makanan secara tiba-tiba, (tidak semestinya kenaikan barangan terkawal seperti gula dan minyak masak sahaja)
• kenaikan kos sara hidup (Contohnya kenaikan nilai hartanah selaras dengan kedatangan pelabur asing)
• nilai projek contohnya pembinaan yang dijalankan terlalu tinggi dari kebiasaan (mungkin pelabur terkejut, jika saya katakan bahawa, nilai projek yang tinggi BUKAN disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga bahan binaan tetapi kerana faktor dalaman seperti pembaziran, kerosakan yang tinggi tanpa kawalan, kemalangan di tempat kerja dan juga rasuah!)

Dan banyak lagi tanda-tanda lain – ada juga trend yang berlaku secara domestik (dalam negara) dan bukan berasal di peringkat antarabangsa.

Hal-hal yang disebutkan di atas juga menyebabkan pasaran menjadi ‘volatile’. Maka pelabur kadangkala banyak bergantung kepada maklumat dalam internet dan tidak lagi memeriksa kesahihan maklumat berkenaan. 

Kadangkala ada maklumat yang bermotifkan spekulasi untuk memanipulasikan psikologi pelabur bagi menjual atau membeli (berawaslah)

Pendekata, tidak ada sebarang pelaburan yang boleh dikategorikan sebagai ‘sempurna’.  Ianya bergantung kepada proses dan kebarangkalian.

Sebenarnya, salah satu faktor kejayaan saya sendiri (secara peribadi) ialah semua sumber yang pernah saya pelajari atau rujuk perlu digabungkan dengan pengalaman saya sendiri. Dengan kata lain, saya sendiri mencipta teknik pelaburan yang tersendiri dan tidak terlalu bergantung kepada bahan-bahan yang ‘bersepah’ di internet atau mengharapkan analisa dan ramalan pasaran pakar.

Apa yang penting kepada saya ialah meninggikan kebarangkalian untuk mengambil tindakan yang betul (kerana saya juga tidak kebal dari melakukan kesilapan). Tindakan yang betul ‘berulangkali’ akan meninggikan lagi kebarangkalian untuk saya meraih keuntungan berbanding berulangkali tindakan yang silap akan meninggikan kebarangkalian saya mengalami kerugian yang besar.

Jika diperhatikan betul-betul, semuanya bergerak dalam satu kitaran. Ada yang naik dan ada yang turun (begitulah sebaliknya)

Setiap kali adanya ‘bullish’, maka ianya akan diikuti dengan ‘bearish’. Begitulah sebaliknya.

Setiap kali berlakunya pembetulan (correction), maka akan datang pemulihan (recovery)

Walaubagaimanapun, bukan perkara yang senang untuk meramal dan mengawal pasaran saham. Ramai yang kecewa apabila perkara ini berlaku.

Tetapi yang pasti, pasaran saham adalah peluang keemasan untuk menjana pendapatan sekiranya pelabur menggunakan teknik dan strategi pelaburan yang ‘matang’ (persediaan untuk ‘untung dan rugi’ dalam pelaburan)

Jangan terlalu beranggapan bahawa pasaran saham merupakan cara ‘rahsia’ untuk menjadikan anda seorang yang kaya kerana ‘cita-cita’ itu kadangkala akan menjadi ‘illusi’ dan anda pasti kecewa melihat hasilnya. Jika anda beranggapan begini, maka anda juga menjadikan diri anda sebagai ‘spekulator’ dan anda setaraf dengan mereka yang berjudi atau menikam loteri.

Pasaran saham bukan tempat spekulasi atau perjudian – ianya adalah perniagaan yang mempunyai ‘untung dan rugi’ dan bukannya ‘untung’ semata-mata atau ‘rugi semata-mata'

K-ECONOMY, K-MANAGEMENT, K-ORGANIZATION,HUMAN CAPITAL, ICT – YOU'RE STILL CONFUSED? (BY NIK ZAFRI)

The battle of defining knowledge management is a never ending story.

(Cummon guys....it's 2010 now..what? you wanna wait till 2020..gosh)

To me KM; having working with bluechips that have proven themselves worthy to be called a KM and KE (Knowledge-Based Economy) – based organizations, I would still agree that :


“KM is a organizational-wide collecton of practices and approaches to generate, capture, disseminate the know-how and others relevant with the perspective of business sustainability and profit”

This is the best definition I see so far.

To those who are or has directly been involved in organizational KM will understand exactly what this definition mean.

The definition has; to a highest degree; harmoniously combined both organizational empirical PROVEN VALUES with ICT as enablers. (Mind you - please do not provide me hypotheses in your counter comments to this article as what I've said herein have been substantiated with proof. )

KM in these organizations is no longer a buzzword, lip-service or trendy – KM is a MUST to them in order to cope up with rapid changes as we are no longer absorbed to the ancient story “who moved my cheese”.

I've seen companies' thrill of victory - making billions due to proper applicaton of KM. Unfortunately; due to certain constraint; I can't reveal any of the companies name as these are their secret recipes of success – trust me (so don't ask)

But on the other hand, I've also witnessed companies' agony of defeat being closed even go bust – due to WRONG applications used and wrong way of 'hybriding' management systems. In the end, the practitioners themselves tend to be CONFUSED themselves.

Communication has evolved rapidly due to the phrase 'knowledge sharing'. It helps in the context of maintaining the 'one captain in one ship' and 'one (management) game plan'. Grapevine at its best!!

We are no longer alone!

If we have to collaborate, then do so!
If we have to be a smart partner or associate, then be one!
If we have to merge; merge then!

(But why the defensive and protective attitude..you wanna go global - don't you, you wanna grow bigger, don't you?)


K-Economy unlike P-Economy (although productivity is still an inevitable issue) everything and everyone in any organization will have a certain impact on the overall economy itself.

Better – these organizations can still 'make money' during recession. (yes, this is what I'm talking about – bearish during good times and bullish to make a comeback during 'bad times')

Face it - Today - economy NO longer depends solely on the "conventionals" such as movement of composite index in the stock market, inflation/deflation, candlestick/technical charts, oil price, USD, political & psychological sentiments, bull or bear, speculation or hedging etc.

BUT

rather we are seeking a more convincing story like PROPER JUSTIFICATIONS or 'COHERENT FACTORS' to JUSTIFY of WHY are there economical fluctuations? or WHY are the charts indicating erratic trends or probably WHAT has political sentiments got to do with the stock market etc. (in laymen terms - not limited only to economist but people at large as well regardless of who they are or where they come from)

(I recalled the The Oracle advising Neo in Matrix Reloaded:

“You didn't come here to make a decision, you already made the decision, now you need to understand WHY you make such decision” (something like that)

So, these justifications require KNOWLEDGE – proper KNOWLEDGE from your own skills, competencies, experience etc. Even paper qualifications are no longer a priority.


“Today – Nik, if there is no control on qualifications being issued, one day you throw a stone in the air, it will definitely hit on a Master Degree Holder's head”

– quoting what the-then Prime Minister, the living legend – Tun Dr. Mahathir once said to me in 1995 when doing the site-walk during the construction of KLCC Petronas Towers.

Tips :

Understand first the scope of service or product provision that your company is doing.

Draw up the core business process

Decide what sort of ICT application or system to be used to expedite operation.

What did you say? I don't understand - well, Bill Gates said that something like this


"KM doesn't even START with a software or application!"

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 15 February 2006 at 6:51pm

Quickies on Global Economy

2004 - catching up. 2005 - a bit slow. 2006 - moderate perhaps at 3.5 %. average growth.Progress in developing countries - coming up fast. Performance in US, Europe and Japan - moderate. South East Asia - forecasted 5-6% growth (2006)

Key Global Issues requiring attention 2006 :

* employment,
* inflation,
* surging/fluctuation/control of oil price,
* deficit,
* stock market and other investments,
* balancing liquidity and interest rates,
* Global Exchange Rate/Fiscal policies - review and improve till the best is achieved,
* Disease & Epidemic Control
* Terrorism
* Price of Non-Oil Commodity
* Natural Disasters

Good News?

* Property Market - potentially booming
* International Trade - still OK
* more Free Trade Zone (hopefully)
* Food & Drugs Industry - still OK
* Service industry - still OK but be more susceptible 'on things happening around you'

Alert?

* Agriculture/Biotechnology - focus on domestic growth rather export,
* International Conventions - 'walk the talk - not talk the walk' - no lip services,
* More FDIs
* More financing and debt relief
---------------------------
Posted: 13 March 2006 at 6:03pm

I think almost all quarters relevant have unanimously agreed that the stock market and the economy will see a better performance this year.

Since earnings from export have now shown signs of good performance, the GDP will definitely rise to - if not = 6% at least > 5%. I'm also 'betting' on this year's GLC's improved performance and FDI pouring in. I must say that I'm quite impressed with 'positive' signs been happening around me since nearly a week now (that's explains my 'long dissapearance' from this forum topic for almost a fortnight. Well, been roaming in the physical world to run some 'experiments') such as smooth mergers and acquisitions of finance/banking sectors, current stock value on the exchange, increased interest in Mesdaq, - hmmm...we should be lucky I guess.

I wanted to be optimistic for just this moment - The above concise statement would definitely be 'absorbed' into the 'uncertainties' to 'restore balance' especially those related to interest rates, oil price, policies, inflation, ringgit alignment, technology etc. The 'balancing restoration' will create the 'cushion' for future impact.

Yeap...I think we're quite ready...

p.s. 15/03/2006 - forgot to add another issue - employment...I'm also quite happy to see some 'corporate sectors' especially banking/finance move to take in graduates - training and paying them more handsome allowances - eventually employing them.

Here an article I would like to share :

http://www.globalexchange.org/campaigns/rulemakers/TenWaysToDemocratize.html

10 Ways to Democratize the Global Economy

Citizens can and should play an active role in shaping the future of our global economy. Here are some of the ways in which we can work together to reform global trade rules, demand that corporations are accountable to people's needs, build strong and free labor and promote fair and environmentally sustainable alternatives.

1. No Globalization without Representation

Multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund create global policy with input mainly from multinational corporations and very little input from grassroots citizens groups. We need to ensure that all global citizens must be democratically represented in the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of all global social and economic policies of the WTO, the IMF, and the WB. The WTO must immediately halt all meetings and negotiations in order for a full, fair, and public assessment to be conducted of the impacts of the WTO's policies to date. The WTO must be replaced by a body that is fully democratic, transparent, and accountable to citizens of the entire world instead of to corporations. We must build support for trade policies that protect workers, human rights, and the environment.

2. Mandate Corporate Accountability

Corporations have so heavily influenced global trade negotiations that they now have rights and representation greater than individual citizens and even governments. Under the guise of 'free trade' they advocate weakening of labor and environmental laws -- a global economy of sweatshops and environmental devastation. Corporations must be subject to the people's will; they should have to prove their worth to society or be dismantled. Corporations must be accountable to public needs, be open to public scrutiny, provide living wage jobs, abide by all environmental and labor regulations, and be subject to all laws governing them. Shareholder activism is an excellent tool for challenging corporate behavior.

3. Restructure the Global Financial Architecture

Currency speculation and the derivatives market move over $1.5 trillion daily (compared to world trade of $6 trillion annually), earning short-term profits for wealthy investors at the expense of long-term development. Many countries are beginning to implement 'capital controls' in order to regulate the influence foreign capital, and grassroots groups are advocating the restructuring and regulation of the global financial architecture. Citizens can pass local city resolutions for the Tobin Tax - a tax of .1% to .25% on currency transactions which would provide a disincentive for speculation but not affect real capital investment, and create a huge fund for building schools & clinics throughout the world.

4. Cancel all Debt, End Structural Adjustment and Defend Economic Sovereignty

Debt is crushing most poor countries' ability to develop as they spend huge amounts of their resources servicing odious debt rather than serving the needs of their populations. Structural adjustment is the tool promoted by the IMF and World Bank to keep countries on schedule with debt payments, with programs promoting export-led development at the expense of social needs. There is an international movement demanding that all debt be cancelled in the year 2000 in order for countries to prioritize health care, education, and real development. Countries must have the autonomy to pursue their own economic plans, including prioritizing social needs over the needs of multinational corporations.

5. Prioritize Human Rights - Including Economic Rights - in Trade Agreements

The United Nations must be the strongest multilateral body - not the WTO. The US must ratify all international conventions on social and political rights. Trade rules must comply with higher laws on human rights as well as economic and labor rights included in the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights. We should promote alternative trade agreements that include fair trade, debt cancellation, micro-credit, and local control over development policies.

6. Promote Sustainable Development - Not Consumption - as the Key to Progress

Global trade and investment should not be ends in themselves, but rather the instruments for achieving equitable and sustainable development, including protection for workers and the environment. Global trade agreements should not undermine the ability of each nation, state or local community to meet its citizens' social, environmental, cultural or economic needs. International development should not be export-driven, but rather should prioritize food security, sustainability, and democratic participation.

7. Integrate Womens' Needs in All Economic Restructuring

Women make up half the world but hold less than 5% of positions of power in determining global economic policy, and own an estimated 1% of global property. Family survival around the world depends on the economic independence of women. Economic policies need to take into account women's important role in nutrition, education, and development. This includes access to family planning as well as education, credit, job training, policy decision-making, and other needs.

8. Build Free and Strong Labor Unions Internationally and Domestically

As trade becomes more 'free,' labor unions are still restricted from organizing in most countries. The International Labor Organization should have the same enforcement power as the WTO. The US should ratify ILO conventions and set an example in terms of enforcing workers' rights to organize and bargain collectively. As corporations increase their multinational strength, unions are working to build bridges across borders and organize globally. Activists can support their efforts and ensure that free labor is an essential component of any 'free trade' agreements.

9. Develop Community Control Over Capital; Promote Socially Responsible Investment

Local communities should not be beholden to the IMF, international capital, multinational corporations, or any other non-local body for policy. Communities should be able to develop investment and development programs that suit local needs including passing anti-sweatshop purchasing restrictions, promoting local credit unions and local barter currency, and implementing investment policies for their city, church, and union that reflect social responsibility criteria.

10. Promote Fair Trade Not Free Trade

While we work to reform 'free trade' institutions and keep corporate chain stores out of our neighborhoods, we should also promote our own vision of Fair Trade. We need to build networks of support and education for grassroots trade and trade in environmentally sustainable goods. We can promote labeling of goods such as Fair Trade Certified, organic, and sustainably harvested. We can purchase locally made goods and locally grown foods that support local economies and cooperative forms of production and trade.

nikzafri wrote:

I'm not really worried about what this news is telling us - but I'm 'a bit' concerned on the USD performance - read the news about USD currency - not conventional economics. Why am I worried? Read my original post here. If something is not done on USD current performance, then other currencies will be effected, when others are effected, then the pricing of everything will be effected, when pricing is effected, then economy will somehow be effected and of course all of us will feel it. Hedging can be one of the cause and the mortgage crisis may also become another - when lenders want to play too safe and not taking any risk.

nikzafri wrote:

Ask a forex trader (those who trade using USD) or a banker (esp. international banks) or local company linked (investment wise) to the US, they'll tell you how this subprime mortgage crisis effects the stock markets all over the world! It would start with the USD value getting hurt due to the too much dependance on subprime sector and housing market. The USD will start declining further as such as the lenders starting to charge higher and more borrowers couldn't afford to pay the loans and risk facing legal charges even the lenders promised refinancing (be careful, you could end up in more trouble if you refinance esp. Predatory Lenders)

nikzafri wrote:

Yes, it doesn't (the relationship between Malaysia stock market performance and the US economy) - because stock prices are a determinant of several factors operating on a given day - it's still about supply and demand. Thus it is technically wrong to assume it's due to one factor that is - concerns over US subprime market. So, we're quite clear that the market current underperformance has; in principle; nothing to do directly with sub-prime mortgate crisis in the United States. But why it is still effected? Why the concerns? Coincidence? No..it can't be as the WORLD stock markets are encountering the same thing.

It gets better....

The Star Business - 10/12/07 - Monday

US dollar woes far from over

IN PERSPECTIVE
By BALJEET GREWAL

CONSIDER this – 2000 years ago, Rome was running a trade shortfall equivalent to 3% of its total economy, one of the many factors that led to the empire’s eventual downfall.

Fifty years ago, Brazil had a massive trade deficit, which were critical to its decline – the currency was battered over and over again.

Eight years ago, the tiger economies of Asia were plunged into a currency crisis, due to big domestic and over-reliance on foreign capital.

Today, international bodies assert that if a country’s trade deficit exceeds 4.5% of its gross deficit product (GDP), it’s a sign of real and present economic danger.

And yet the US economy continues to flaunt history and economics. At 6.4% of GDP (US$58.9bil), US trade deficits are perilous and significantly exceed those of Rome, Brazil or any Asian country one decade ago.

With the recent decline of the US dollar, there are good reasons to expect its slide to continue. Weak economic numbers triggered the fall of the greenback against slower housing starts, sluggish durable goods orders and lethargic consumer confidence – all point to a correction in the economy.

Compounding this is the US’ current account and budget deficit (3.5% of GDP) as well as the narrowing interest rate differential between the US and regional Asian countries. The impact of the subprime market and the widespread repercussions on consumer and corporate consumption exacerbates the dollar woes. All these factors combined offer the possibility of a prolonged economic malaise which continues to weigh down the dollar.

On the contrary, improved economic fundamentals in Asia (reduced external debt and budget deficits, higher international reserves, potential sovereign ratings upgrades and sizeable portfolio capital flows into Asia) have further supported regional currencies.

Further appreciation is on the cards, driven by dwindling US macro dynamics and slower growth expectations. Year-to-date 2006, the Malaysian ringgit has appreciated 5.52% against the greenback, the Singapore dollar at 5.97% and the Thai baht at 16.96%. More telling will be a likely renminbi appreciation fuelling regional currencies given China’s imminent economic reforms and move towards a flexible mechanism. Increasingly, the fortunes of economies in the region are being lifted, driven in many cases by demand from China.

While a weak dollar has seen currencies rally against a weary US economy, a significant correction in US macro data and serious negatives from a bourgeoning current account deficit may flip dynamics if left unchecked. The largest threat globally remains an unruly adjustment of the US dollar which could send regional markets into a downward spiral premised on a sell off in US dollar assets. The tumbling dollar will not only halt export growth but also see a flight away from capital markets. The US is still the single largest trading partner of most East Asian economies, and the Achilles heel of emerging Asia.

To offset this, East Asian countries will need to ensure that their currencies appreciate in unison and do not fluctuate sharply in value relative to one another given the weightage of trade. East Asian economies can withstand about 20% decline in the trade-weighted value of the dollar provided their currencies appreciate together – consensus show that the US dollar will need to decline by 30% in trade weightage terms for trade deficit to look palatable.

Collectively, Asian central banks hold about US$3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, most of it in dollars, and their large purchases of US dollar leading to 2006 have played a crucial role in curtailing the dollar's decline. If the US dollar is certain to fall further, central banks will sell dollar reserves or switch into other reserve currencies, which will exacerbate the dollar’s fall.

On the contrary, if Asian economies try to prevent their currencies from rising against the dollar to preserve export competitiveness, then the result could be broadbased weakness in Asian currencies and a rapid accumulation of currency reserves. Delicate balancing of foreign exchange reserves in this instance is crucial, especially given the trade impact; hence a communal appreciation will thwart any potential regional imbalance.

So, does a falling US dollar spell disaster for Asia? Not necessarily. Asian economies today are characterised by current account surpluses, large foreign exchange reserves and high rates of domestic savings. Equity markets across the region have been breaching all-time highs, reflecting the underlying strength of economies across the region and the perception that Asian stocks represent the best growth prospects at reasonable risk premium.

Thanks in part to the de-linking of Asia's capital markets from the US (more visible in the bond market), and a greater reliance in intra-regional trade (particularly with China), Asian markets seem well-placed to withstand the slowdown in the US that is expected in 2007.

These improved economic fundamentals will serve the region well over the next few years as the global economy slows and investors become more risk-averse. Nevertheless, the dip in Asian capital markets and a slide in Asian currencies against the US dollar in August this year, from the fallout of the subprime crisis serve as a reminder that the region is not immune to a change in global investor sentiment.

Meanwhile, positive overtures from an appreciating ringgit will continue to buoy domestic markets. The ringgit surged to its highest level post de-pegging, closing at 3.3177 (Nov 9) to the US dollar in line with strengthening regional currencies. The broadbased impact from a stronger ringgit is positive in general; especially in sectors which derive ringgit revenue with USD denominated costs.

Note: The author is group chief economist at Kuwait Finance House, Malaysia (KFH). KFH is one of the largest Islamic banks in the world and the first Islamic Bank with an Economic & Investment Research team.

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Since the author said "Not necessarily", this may also serves to mean as 'depends'.

Here are my personal hypotheses :

Despite it is understandable that trade surpluses could be the solution for future economic growth i.e. by means of amending policies not to be overdependent on foreign trade (only recently done), it may only work if country like US decide to run the corresponding trade deficit.

I may be wrong, but what if US decides to reduce the deficit?

Will it not create some 'not so nice' repercussions?

I'm not really being devil advocate here, but the gap of surpluses and deficits are not getting any smaller as we speak and it is foreseeable that the next issue will be misalignments in USD adjustment and definitely some 'not so nice' impact on global growth.

Of course, I'm neither suggesting that we should be adjusting exchange rates in Asian surplus counter nor pushing down demand and growth in deficit countries but rather I was kinda HOPING that Asian should assume a much bigger function in expanding their domestic demands and head towards becoming the catalyst to global growth (as soon as possible)

I am also yet to see two things : (anyone, please correct, I might have missed it)

a) EU coming in although much have been said by them and

b) adjustments on worldwide macroeconomic policies

When we deal with global financial management, we need a state-of-the art multilateral approaches to ensure a more predictable trading environment.

In global economy, every nation should not be left behind (or be put in the dark wondering what would be the future or what's next?) and they all deserve a more fair/equal treatment. IMF and UNCTAD should play more transparent roles rather than be seen as 'being used' to determine monetary policies and exchange rates.

The whole world is on the way towards interdependency, nobody should be ignored. Asia should no longer limit itself by merely quoting China as a benchmark of Asian or world growth, but other Asian nations as well.

The Star Business - 25/12/07

New launches to drive growth

Chief executives have lined up new products for next year. Mah Sing Group Bhd CEO Datuk Seri Leong Hoy Kum expects the company's new launches will be well received in a buoyant, domestic-driven economy. Guinness Anchor Bhd's MD Charles Ireland feels 2008 should be a better year as the market for malt liquor has started to stabilise. Prudential Assurance Malaysia Bhd's CEO Tan Kar Hor will cultivate new product lines like retirement planning and Islamic products

DATUK SERI LEONG HOY KUM
Managing director and CEO
Mah Sing Group Bhd

WHAT is your outlook for the property market next year?

We believe that the property market in 2008 will be robust, underpinned by a resilient domestic driven economy. Various pump-priming initiatives under the Ninth Malaysia Plan will provide a boost to propel the economy upwards and increase disposable incomes.

Malaysia’s young population, rising urbanisation, low unemployment rate and increasing wages, as well as a high savings rate will continue to contribute to the property market’s positive run.


Datuk Seri leong Huy Kum
The Government has been proactive in this manner, with several goodies announced for Budget 2008. EPF contributors will be allowed to make monthly withdrawals for financing one house effective Jan 1, 2008.

This could potentially unleash close to RM9.6bil annually into the property industry, allowing homebuyers to afford homes costing 20% more than previously.

The 50% waiver on stamp duty for purchase of homes under RM250,000 should boost demand for homes, and the Group has taken the initiative to ride on these incentives.

We are setting up a help desk to advise our buyers on the EPF withdrawals, as well as waiving the remaining 50% stamp duty for Mah Sing homes priced up to RM250,000, to ease the burden of home ownership.

Besides domestic demand, there has been increased foreign interest in our properties as they like the quality of our properties, boosted by the waiver of real property gains tax.

We have the most liberal landownership laws in the region, and now, foreigners are allowed to buy unlimited units of residential properties above RM250,000 without restriction of usage.

What are some of the opportunities and challenges for industry players going forward?

Growth corridors including the Iskandar Development Region (IDR) and Northern Corridor Economic Region have resulted in renewed interest in these areas, and improving infrastructure as well as strong economic and population growth will spur demand for housing there.

Malaysia’s increasing exposure as an international property market will attract more foreign participation. It is indeed an opportune time for foreign investors because whilst our properties may be world class, valuations still lag behind those of our regional peers.

Increases in raw material prices have increased construction costs, resulting in higher pricing for good housing projects in strategic locations.

Buyers will want to hedge against inflation by investing in assets that have potential upside.

Which property sector and development types offer the best potential for your company?

In terms of the residential market, we believe that medium to high-end gated and guarded residential properties should do well.

Demand for these properties is a reflection of Malaysians’ growing affluence and sophistication. These properties would need innovative concepts and practical layouts, as well as being supported by a strong brand.

For the commercial market, there is a shortage of good office space, especially Grade A offices in Kuala Lumpur. The limited number of good quality investment grade buildings available for sale in the market has driven up the capital value of prime offices.

Depending on the location, commercial retail buildings should do well.

What are the challenges faced by the industry and the impact on your company?

Prime land is increasingly scarce, especially land that fits our fast turnaround business model.

However, we have a proven landbanking track record, securing good land year on year to maintain our earnings visibility.

Sometimes, landowners also approach us either to sell land, or to propose joint ventures on their land to tap into our branding, experience and skills.

Our capability to appropriately manage cash flow is key to the company’s ability to capitalise on opportunities

Increases in raw material are inevitable, but we have taken steps to mitigate the effects, for example, by using step up pricing for new launches, bulk purchasing to enjoy discounts, and lowering our funding costs via shrewd negotiations.

Human capital, i.e being able to continuously recruit, train and retain good people who are willing to take the company to new heights amidst increasing globalisation, will be the key to success.

We have a very strong team which is striving to realise the Group’s vision.

What are some of the interesting property launches that can be expected from your company in the coming months?

We have started a registration exercise for our new commercial projects, which will be launched in 2008.

Southgate Commercial Centre offers investors the opportunity to own offices in the heart of Kuala Lumpur, as opposed to just leasing the offices in most new buildings.

There will be food and retail outlets to support the offices. Southbay City in Batu Maung, Penang will be a new “must-visit” destination, integrating leisure, commercial and retail offerings near the upcoming Second Bridge on the island.

Our existing residential projects are Perdana Residence, Kemuning Residence, Hijauan Residence and Aman Perdana in the Klang Valley, and Sierra Perdana, Austin Perdana and Sri Pulai Perdana in South Johor within the IDR.

We shall continue our sales from these projects, mainly semi-detached homes and bungalows within gated and guarded communities.

What are your expectations of project take-up rate, sales revenue and earnings for the company next year?

We believe 2008 will be another good year and we should be able to achieve another year of uninterrupted profitability and good take-up. This will be underpinned by our unbilled sales exceeding RM1bil, which is twice our revenue in 2006.

We have a remaining Gross Development Value (GDV) of RM3.042bil, representing a total GDV of RM4.119bil, which will ensure earnings visibility for seven years.

We expect another year of good sales, especially with the implementation of the Employees Provident Fund withdrawals next year. We will continue to focus on the lifestyle medium to high-end residential and commercial segments, which have given us very good results.


Charles Ireland
CHARLES IRELAND
Managing Director
Guinness Anchor Bhd

WHAT is your outlook on consumer spending for 2008?

The Malaysian economy seems to us to be in pretty good health. When the Ninth Malaysian Plan’s spending kicks in, we hope that the present growth rate of 6% will be sustainable throughout 2008.

Within the malt liquor market (MLM), we are extremely supportive of the Visit Malaysia Year initiatives and are delighted that it has been extended to 2008. This is because we know that generally, tourists enjoy relaxing with a beer at the end of the day when on holiday, and that other spending that they do will further support the Malaysian economic growth.

While we are optimistic for 2008, we are also not discounting that several other factors can impact consumer spending, such as inflationary pressures and the external environment, like high oil prices and the US subprime mortgage market as well as the accompanying credit crunch.

As for the MLM, we were spared another year of excise duty increase in the recent Budget 2008 and the market is slowly beginning to stabilise, registering a marginal growth year-on-year.

How was consumer spending in 2007?

The malt liquor industry had a tough year with a 1.4% contraction in the market.

Consumers were, not surprisingly, still careful in their spending on beer given the very high prices due to us having the second highest excise duty in the world.

I am pleased to say though that despite this, GAB performed very well. Our revenue breached the RM1bil mark to reach RM1.07bil while pre-tax profits stood at RM152.16mil.

Our success was due to our continued focus on our people, brands and performance. We launched several innovative marketing initiatives to attract consumers to our brands, increased our budget allocation for employee training and improved operational efficiency to strengthen our financial performance.

This, together with continuous support from our consumers and trade partners, has helped us open up a clear lead over the competition.

What is your expectation of spending at the higher end? Please define “higher end” in your industry.

Whilst GAB proudly boasts a full diverse portfolio of brands, we have the best “higher-end” beer brands in Malaysia. As such, a good performance in this segment is critical to our success.

Higher-end outlets for us are modern pubs and clubs, white table restaurant and hotels. We expect that this sector will continue to perform as Malaysia transitions into more of a service economy and there is further growth in middle-to-higher income jobs.

Furthermore, the Visit Malaysia Year initiatives will hopefully continue to bring additional affluent consumers to the country.

GAB is well positioned to grow in this segment. Consumers regularly choose our brands as part of their evening. Whilst we are the clear market leader overall, we have over 90% market share of this “higher-end” segment.

How have the tourism dollars helped to boost consumer spending, what further measures can be introduced to boost tourism?

Tourism is very important in bringing in tourist ringgit into the country, helping boost the economy and, consequently, consumer spending.

The price of beer and stout is one factor that tourists consider in making a choice of holiday destination. We also know that beer prices in Malaysia are the highest in the region and believe that this may lead to tourists choosing neighbouring countries over Malaysia.

To this end, we believe that it was a good decision by the Government not to increase excise duties this year to give the rest of the world a chance to catch up.

We further believe that the industry should play its part in boosting tourism. The Ministry of Tourism’s initiatives should be commended and complemented by us.

We are currently thinking of how we can support the ministry in its efforts and have started dialogues with them on how we can help.

What are the new challenges at a time when consumers are said to be spoilt for choice?

One of the wonderful things about a business is that there are always challenges and the trick is to turn these challenges into opportunities.

Over the past six years, GAB has been successful.

We believe that by working hard with our great people and fantastic portfolio of brands to deliver performance, we are able to continue to grow to deliver ahead of shareholders' expectations.

Tan Kar Hor

TAN KAR HOR
CEO Prudential Assurance Malaysia Bhd

IS your company on track toward achieving the risk-based capital (RBC) framework by 2009?

Insurance companies in Malaysia have known for a long time about the impending introduction of a risk-based capital framework. The possibility of such a framework being introduced was highlighted as early as 2001 in the Financial Sector Masterplan.

Since 2004, Bank Negara has also been working closely with the insurance industry to draw up the framework that is applicable for Malaysia, and there have been several rounds of refinement of the proposed framework following discussions between the central bank and the insurance industry.

This has allowed insurance companies, including Prudential, to test the impact of the proposed framework on their financial positions and to strategise in areas such as product development, investment decisions and efficient capital management.

As far as Prudential is concerned, we are on track to implement the RBC framework by 2009.

What are the current initiatives and processes put in place or being undertaken to achieve the RBC framework?

With the impending introduction of the RBC framework, there will be higher demand for professionals with specialised skills such as actuaries and risk managers.

This is especially so because the RBC framework uses statistical science to make explicit provisions for uncertainties in an insurer’s future financial position, for example, the amount of claims and the market view of investment return.

As a leading insurer in Malaysia, Prudential is fortunate to be able to attract and retain people with specialised skills. We focus a lot not only on attracting and retaining the right people, but also training them.

The new framework also gives insurance companies more opportunities and flexibility to demonstrate good internal governance and risk management systems and practices. We are further strengthening these areas to cope with the new framework.

Being part of a large global financial services group (UK-based Prudential plc), we are also fortunate that our group head office supports us by providing their experience on new developments in the regulatory regimes in other countries in which we have operations as well as training to update the skills of our specialised staff.

Are mergers and acquisitions (M&A) on the company’s agenda in view of the deadline for RBC compliance getting closer?

At present, we are not considering any mergers and acquisitions.

What steps are your company taking to gain a larger foothold in the sector?

The launch of our sister company, Prudential BSN Takaful, last year was a significant milestone that enabled us to widen our product range to include syariah-compliant insurance plans. We expect strong contribution from our takaful business given the huge market potential.

We will continue our efforts to expand our agency force, improve their productivity through rigorous training programmes and leverage on IT to enhance their efficiency.

We are also aggressively broadening our insurance solutions to meet our customers’ needs.

Retirement is one of the key focus areas as the market is ripe for financial solutions that can help customers proactively plan for retirement and be able to live comfortably through their golden years. We are building our strength and expertise in this area, supported by our market leadership in investment-linked products and deep understanding of the retirement space through consumer research and vast experience worldwide.

Besides retirement, healthcare remains a major concern as one gets older. We will continue to develop even more innovative insurance plans to ensure our customers are well protected against escalating medical costs.

With all these initiatives in place, Prudential is well positioned to deliver sustainable, profitable new business growth in the coming year.

Will financial advisor be one of the important distribution channels for the company going forward, judging by its success in developed countries?

Developing our agents to be financial advisors is an important step to cater for customers who are nowadays more financially-savvy and require solutions that can meet various financial needs.

Training programmes that our agents undergo increasingly emphasize on customer needs analysis, the provision of financial advisory services and proper advice to customers as a way to increase their skills and professionalism.

We will also continue to synergise the strengths and competencies of Prudential’s insurance, takaful and fund management businesses in Malaysia to deliver innovative financial solutions that cater to customers’ needs.

This synergy will further solidify our brand name and position as a significant retail financial solutions provider in the market.

What will be your investment in IT infrastructure and other expansion plans?

We have put in great efforts to transform our agents to be more receptive to technology in conducting their business.

Many of them are already using notebooks and mobile devices such as Treo smart phones and BlackBerry equipped with customised insurance solutions that give them the flexibility to conduct their business while on the move.

Besides real-time accessibility to customer information, these devices also allow our agents to prepare quotations and provide on-the-spot response to customer enquiries.

These efforts are part of our ongoing commitment to innovative services and products, and transforming our agency force into the most ‘well-connected’ in Malaysia.

Prudential will continue to leverage on technology to further improve agents’ efficiency and customer service delivery. In the pipeline is the development of Sales Force Automation (SFA), which will give our agents instant access to customer data and enable them to issue policies right in the customers’ homes.

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Here's my version of summary (Nik Zafri)

1. Property market demand will depend many factors

a. Future - Malaysia’s young population, rising urbanisation, low unemployment rate and increasing wages, as well as a high savings rate

b. Current - EPF withdrawals

2. Future - the Development Regions

Current - Volatile construction raw materials pricing ' still need further assistance'

3. Buyers are recommended to hedge against inflation by asset investments that have potential upsides

Potential upside relates to :

- spread ratio/yield result in order to get risk/return ratio. In short, take additional risk to benchmark the current risk. Only then a decision can be obtained to know if additional pick-up of yield is worth in terms for 'taking additional risk' (huh?) It's kinda 3D thinking in asset management.

Again 'potential' means 'Future'.

4. Future : Landowners should work together with Developers instead of selling land.

5. Current : Tourism is still the most popular 'profit generator'.

6. Future : Risk Based Capital to (Future) Risk Weighted Assets ratio of x%.

Current : Impact testing on Product development, investment decisions and efficient capital management.
7. Current : Competent Human Resources, Knowledge Workers etc. still being hunted.

8. Current and Future : ICT will still rule!