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NIK ZAFRI BIN ABDUL MAJID, CONSULTANT/TRAINER
Email: nikzafri@yahoo.com, nikzafri@gmail.com
http://www.nikzafri.blogspot.my

Kelantanese, Alumni of Sultan Ismail College Kelantan (SICA), Diploma (Management), IT Competency Cert, Certified Written English Professional US. Has participated in many seminars/conferences (local/ international) in the capacity of trainer/lecturer and participant.

Affiliations :- Council Member of Gerson Lehrman Group NY, Institute of Quality Malaysia, Malaysian Institute of Management, Malaysian Occupational Safety and Health Professionals Association, Auditor ISO 9000 IRCAUK, Auditor OHSAS 18000 (SIRIM and STS) /EMS ISO 14000:2004 and Construction Quality Assessment System (CONQUAS, CIDB (Now BCA) Singapore),

* Possesses 26 years of experience/hands-on in the multi-modern management & technical disciplines (systems & methodologies) such as Knowledge Management (Hi-Impact Management/ICT Solutions), Quality (TQM/ISO), Safety Health Environment, Civil & Building (Construction), Manufacturing, Motivation & Team Building, HR, Marketing/Branding, Business Process Reengineering, Economy/Stock Market, Contracts/Project Management, Finance & Banking, etc. He was employed to international bluechips involving in national/international megaprojects such as Balfour Beatty Construction/Knight Piesold & Partners UK, MMI Insurance Group Australia, Hazama Corporation (Hazamagumi) Japan (with Mitsubishi Corporation, JA Jones US, MMCE and Ho-Hup) and Sunway Construction Berhad (The Sunway Group of Companies). Among major projects undertaken : Pergau Hydro Electric Project, KLCC Petronas Twin Towers, LRT Tunnelling, KLIA, Petronas Refineries Melaka, Putrajaya Government Complex, Sistem Lingkaran Lebuhraya Kajang (SILK), Mex Highway, KLIA1, KLIA2 etc. Once serviced SMPD Management Consultants as Associate Consultant cum Lecturer for Diploma in Management, Institute of Supervisory Management UK/SMPD JV. Currently – Associate/Visiting Consultants/Facilitators, Advisors for leading consulting firms (local and international) including project management. To name a few – Noma SWO Consult, Amiosh Resources, Timur West Consultant Sdn. Bhd., TIJ Consultants Group (Malaysia and Singapore) and many others.

* Ex-Resident Weekly Columnist of Utusan Malaysia (1995-1998) and have produced more than 100 articles related to ISO-9000– Management System and Documentation Models, TQM Strategic Management, Occupational Safety and Health (now OHSAS 18000) and Environmental Management Systems ISO 14000. His write-ups/experience has assisted many students/researchers alike in module developments based on competency or academics and completion of many theses. Once commended by the then Chief Secretary to the Government of Malaysia for his diligence in promoting and training the civil services (government sector) based on “Total Quality Management and Quality Management System ISO-9000 in Malaysian Civil Service – Paradigm Shift Scalar for Assessment System”

Among Nik Zafri’s clients : Adabi Consumer Industries Sdn. Bhd, (MRP II, Accounts/Credit Control) The HQ of Royal Customs and Excise Malaysia (ISO 9000), Veterinary Services Dept. Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), The Institution of Engineers Malaysia (Aspects of Project Management – KLCC construction), Corporate HQ of RHB (Peter Drucker's MBO/KRA), NEC Semiconductor - Klang Selangor (Productivity Management), Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia (ISO 9000), State Secretarial Office Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), Hidrological Department KL (ISO 9000), Asahi Kluang Johor(System Audit, Management/Supervisory Development), Tunku Mahmood (2) Primary School Kluang Johor (ISO 9000), Consortium PANZANA (HSSE 3rd Party Audit), Lecturer for Information Technology Training Centre (ITTC) – Authorised Training Center (ATC) – University of Technology Malaysia (UTM) Kluang Branch Johor, Kluang General Hospital Johor (Management/Supervision Development, Office Technology/Administration, ISO 9000 & Construction Management), Kahang Timur Secondary School Johor (ISO 9000), Sultan Abdul Jalil Secondary School Kluang Johor (Islamic Motivation and Team Building), Guocera Tiles Industries Kluang Johor (EMS ISO 14000), MNE Construction (M) Sdn. Bhd. Kota Tinggi Johor (ISO 9000 – Construction), UITM Shah Alam Selangor (Knowledge Management/Knowledge Based Economy /TQM), Telesystem Electronics/Digico Cable(ODM/OEM for Astro – ISO 9000), Sungai Long Industries Sdn. Bhd. (Bina Puri Group) - ISO 9000 Construction), Secura Security Printing Sdn. Bhd,(ISO 9000 – Security Printing) ROTOL AMS Bumi Sdn. Bhd & ROTOL Architectural Services Sdn. Bhd. (ROTOL Group) – ISO 9000 –Architecture, Bond M & E (KL) Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9000 – Construction/M & E), Skyline Telco (M) Sdn. Bhd. (Knowledge Management),Technochase Sdn. Bhd JB (ISO 9000 – Construction), Institut Kefahaman Islam Malaysia (IKIM – ISO 9000 & Internal Audit Refresher), Shinryo/Steamline Consortium (Petronas/OGP Power Co-Generation Plant Melaka – Construction Management and Safety, Health, Environment), Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Negotiation Skills), Association for Retired Intelligence Operatives of Malaysia (Cyber Security – Arpa/NSFUsenet, Cobit, Till, ISO/IEC ISMS 27000 for Law/Enforcement/Military), T.Yamaichi Corp. (M) Sdn. Bhd. (EMS ISO 14000) LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd., (Lean Scoreboard (including a full development of System-Software-Application - MSC Malaysia & Six Sigma) PJZ Marine Services Sdn. Bhd., (Safety Management Systems and Internal Audit based on International Marine Organization Standards) UNITAR/UNTEC (Degree in Accountacy – Career Path/Roadmap) Cobrain Holdings Sdn. Bhd.(Managing Construction Safety & Health), Speaker for International Finance & Management Strategy (Closed Conference), Pembinaan Jaya Zira Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9001:2008-Internal Audit for Construction Industry & Overview of version 2015), Straits Consulting Engineers Sdn. Bhd. (Full Integrated Management System – ISO 9000, OHSAS 1800 and EMS ISO 14000 for Civl/Structural/Geotechnical Consulting), Malaysia Management & Science University (MSU – (Managing Business in an Organization), Innoseven Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 MSPR8 – Awareness and Internal Audit (Construction), ISO 9001:2008 and 2015 overview for the Construction Industry), Kemakmuran Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 - Signages/Wayfinding - Project Quality Plan and Construction Method Statement ), Amiosh Resources - (1) Lembaga Tabung Haji - Flood ERP (2) WNA Consultants - DID/JPS -Flood Risk Assessment and Management Plan - Prelim, Conceptual Design, Interim and Final Report etc. (3) Tunnel Fire Safety - Fire Risk Assessment Report - Design Fire Scenario), Safety, Health and Environmental Management Plans leading construction/property companies/corporations in Malaysia. Timur West Consulting (1) Business Methodology and System (2) Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) ISO/IEC 27001:2013 for Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya ISMS/Audit/Risk/ITP Technical Team

* Has appeared for 10 consecutive series in “Good Morning Malaysia RTM TV1’ Corporate Talk Segment discussing on ISO 9000/14000 in various industries. For ICT, his inputs garnered from his expertise have successfully led to development of work-process e-enabling systems in the environments of intranet, portal and interactive web design especially for the construction and manufacturing. Some of the end products have won various competitions of innovativeness, quality, continual-improvements and construction industry award at national level. He has also in advisory capacity – involved in development and moderation of websites, portals and e-profiles for mainly corporate and private sectors, public figures etc. He is also one of the recipients for MOSTE Innovation for RFID use in Electronic Toll Collection in Malaysia



Risk Based Thinking ISO 9001:2015

(The answers provided are not to be deemed as solutions but basic guidelines, please contact me for further details of consultancy and training)

Q : Do I issue NCR for Risk Identification/Assessment? (i.e. HIRARC)

A : Risk Identification/Asessment and even HIRARC itself is an assessment NOT an audit/inspection. Please do not confuse the two. When we talk about risk, the word "proactive" must always come into the picture. Risk Based Thinking in the new ISO 9001:2015 is previously known as "Preventive Action" but spoken in a wider sense.

If you are using HIRARC, then there are "marks" to denote severity and likelihood of the risk being identified. You can note suggestion or instruction for improvement based on your findings and discuss in your Management Review.

Q : I am a newbie in Risk Management, where to start on Risk Based Thinking during upgrading from the old version?

A: ISO 9001:2015 do not make it "a must" to have a full risk management. Unless it's already part of your core business process (especially planning), e.g. using HIRARC, then that's different. Look at your core business process and identify/ brainstorm the possible risk associated with every process where applicable. Using the Risk Register would be a good idea.

The reason why "Risk Based Thinking" is introduced into ISO 9001:2015 is because to reduce non-conformance and customer complaints, to justify clearly (substantiated with evidence) the Department/Unit Objectives, KPI/KRA, Balance Scorecard etc. (not simply pick up a figure from 'the sky')

Note :


TO SEE ALL ARTICLES

ON THE"LABEL" SECTION BELOW (RIGHT SIDE COLUMN), YOU CAN CLICK ON ANY TAG - TO READ ALL ARTICLES ACCORDING TO ITS CATEGORY (E.G. LABEL : CONSTRUCTION) OR GO TO THE VERY END OF THIS BLOG AND CLICK "Older Posts"

Monday, June 09, 2008

Just got an e-mail (Judging by the style of query, I think the person is either 'economist' or could well be 'an investor') asking me 'what is 'asymmetry'?

Click Here for the definition on the web especially :

"Unequal distribution about one or more axes"

"a branching pattern or shape that lacks a line of symmetry on either side of a median plane"

"Irregular, uneven; without symmetry; having no center or axis where something can be divided evenly"

and on the question how asymmetrical factors relate to the stock market or in the context what we're talking now...KLCI...Click Here for a sample research....(and a very good one too)

Then I think having read these, the forumer will agree on the use of the word 'asymmetry'...

And on the final question of how to become a good 'forecaster' (like Ariffin), in theory, you should first determine 'standard deviation' (e.g. 150-200) and 'correlation efficient' (0.90++) with a typical disclaimer that the price may fall within +/- 2 or 3 times the standard deviation. Alas, this is only a theory - I'm still biased to 'empirical factors' (experience) and 'justification of figures' + 'hunch/intuition' (of course with these combined strengths, you can almost determine the deviation and correlation + tolerance)

But I sincerely wish you would talk openly in this forum as we need your inputs as well. Don't just 'peep-in' and become 'observers'.
------------------------
The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted : 03 January 2007 at 12:21pm

arifin34 wrote:
Oops.... sorry again. I'm apologising cos I don't want to offend anyone, esp. to you all, my dear friends. Oklah, I'm just an ordinary 'economic chartist' (Fred Tam prefers me to stake claim as a 'chartist' or 'technical analyst' - that's coming directly from him) who happens to be trained in develoment economics.... so I think I understand quite a bit on what the other forumers are talking about in this tread (most of you are really farsighted - that augurs well for this thread

hey Brigitte aren't the GMN people up there thinking of awarding some kind of Awards as an added incentive?!).

I said 'quite a bit' cos nobody actually knows what's going to happen in the real world. Economists are good (very good) at making simplifying assumptions in their analyses. No two economists think alike, I guess... that's why some people even make jokes about the economics profession - a dismal science they say! Why, even the famous London School of Economics placed 'Economics' under the Social Sciences. And mind you, that was George Soros' alma matter!

The other irony is that not all economists are exposed to the capital markets (bourses included) even though (to me) "the stock market is the panaceae of capitalist economics"! Most economists I knew were at lost when discussing about the stock market - they knew about the theoretical objectives of having one but not of how it works, and more importantly how one can read and figure out the direction of the trends. That's FORECASTING... and I have learned it not at the universities but purely thru SHELF STUDY.

I hope you people realise what I'm trying to say. You see, the good point is: You don't have to be an economist to be a stock market expert but having some economics background really helps - even though sometimes the two don't jive. And last but not least, brush up your knowledge in ICT (e.g. master the tools in the softwares) ..... and become more of a 'pakar ekonomi' & 'pakar IT' rolled up into one, as in the lyrics of 'Keranamu Malaysia'. Then you'll be unbeatable.... and with a bit of luck you can even Beat the Markets!

Bye, c u next year!

From an 'economic chartist' (or ist it a 'charting economist'?).

I like to agree to Fred Tam. I share the thinking that an economic chartist is also a technical analyst (not 'or' but 'and') - you're just being humble..that's all.

Lemme have the honour of 'analysing' you Bro Ariffin, I haven't done this in a long time - so you must excuse my rusty knowledge

Technical Analysis

Although in your posts, there are still conventional patterns of taking into account past investment returns/prices and relating price vs current value of expected cash flow from investment, I've also noticed some strong elements of quantitative investment analysis in almost ALL your posts which relates further to other variables (e.g. account ratio? - overpriced stocks or stocks with higher ratios of market price to equity book value may generate lower risk-adjusted returns) and there have been attempts using chaos, fractal, & neural. (am not sure about AI)

Charting

Then I'm assuming, you start plotting past prices vs time using charts to detect downward/upward trend which you have always 'predicted' to continue (trend persistence).

You're not too fast cos' it's dangerous for investors but you 'play along' with the flow of 'educating cum alerting' so that people like me can understand and absorb what you're talking about.

To all forumers, charting is not simply hypotheses but it requires a gread deal of experience cos' investors are getting more knowledgeable everyday. It's not simply depending on softwares or system that proclaimed can do everything for you.

Charting 'the bro Ariffin way' (or Fred Tam's way) can also ascertain the trend limit based on peaks/troughs connections and resistance/support levels, osciillators/schochastics - price positioning measurement vs low/high price/momentum and of course empirical factors - using your intuition to expect some 'drastic/erratic' volatilities and investor's psychology.

- that's where we (and/or 'investors') know when to buy or to sell or simply put as 'bear/bull' (also very useful to 'futures' as well)

Additionally - what johndoe said in his views on KLCI 07 is also very accurate - "The stock market is just like wheat harvesting. After a great harvest, the farm must be burned down into ashes creating a natural fertilizer for the next planting/harvest"

whereby I self-termed as the fiscal first quarterly effect - usually after December, there'll be a year-end liquidity rise & tax loss trading reduction - so you should be expecting good times for January, February (but probably not end March) unless what have been promised are being fulfilled -> implementation/performance/ transparency <- the real stuff that I like to see (This para is also self-explanatory of why in some posts, I'm a bit reserved in the KLCI future predictions - but this 'reservation' doesn't imply that I'm pessimistic)

Thus, the abovementioned JohnDoe's views should be intergrated with ariffin's charting/analysis - then investors should be safe!

On my side ; on the other hand; have always been 'picked up here & there' (multiple styles) of looking into the trend + asymetrical/psychological effects (spectral) on stock values/economy - triggered by political party assembly, elections or equivalent (depending on the chosen candidates - what they talk about/promise, economy gameplan, policies etc.), Yes...corporate good governance, delivery systems, book value, blah-blah-blah as well.

Other psychological factors may also relate to 'force majeur elements' that I've mentioned in one of my recent posts, such as war, environmental issues, natural disasters etc. Don't forget big events such as games & competitions (spurious correlation) such as World Cup, Olympic Games etc.

Other variables - currency movement (depreciate/appreciate?) vs inflation vs growth, inequilibrium in trade balances etc. Investors must also have knowledge on the industries/products/operations/core-business processes that they have interest in.

To be on safer side, Ariffin + John + Nik's modus operandi - you'll be a super knowledgeable investor..hehehehe.

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