Just got an e-mail (Judging by the style of query, I think the person is either 'economist' or could well be 'an investor') asking me 'what is 'asymmetry'?
Click Here for the definition on the web especially :
"Unequal distribution about one or more axes"
"a branching pattern or shape that lacks a line of symmetry on either side of a median plane"
"Irregular, uneven; without symmetry; having no center or axis where something can be divided evenly"
and on the question how asymmetrical factors relate to the stock market or in the context what we're talking now...KLCI...Click Here for a sample research....(and a very good one too)
Then I think having read these, the forumer will agree on the use of the word 'asymmetry'...
And on the final question of how to become a good 'forecaster' (like Ariffin), in theory, you should first determine 'standard deviation' (e.g. 150-200) and 'correlation efficient' (0.90++) with a typical disclaimer that the price may fall within +/- 2 or 3 times the standard deviation. Alas, this is only a theory - I'm still biased to 'empirical factors' (experience) and 'justification of figures' + 'hunch/intuition' (of course with these combined strengths, you can almost determine the deviation and correlation + tolerance)
But I sincerely wish you would talk openly in this forum as we need your inputs as well. Don't just 'peep-in' and become 'observers'.
------------------------
The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted : 03 January 2007 at 12:21pm
Click Here for the definition on the web especially :
"Unequal distribution about one or more axes"
"a branching pattern or shape that lacks a line of symmetry on either side of a median plane"
"Irregular, uneven; without symmetry; having no center or axis where something can be divided evenly"
and on the question how asymmetrical factors relate to the stock market or in the context what we're talking now...KLCI...Click Here for a sample research....(and a very good one too)
Then I think having read these, the forumer will agree on the use of the word 'asymmetry'...
And on the final question of how to become a good 'forecaster' (like Ariffin), in theory, you should first determine 'standard deviation' (e.g. 150-200) and 'correlation efficient' (0.90++) with a typical disclaimer that the price may fall within +/- 2 or 3 times the standard deviation. Alas, this is only a theory - I'm still biased to 'empirical factors' (experience) and 'justification of figures' + 'hunch/intuition' (of course with these combined strengths, you can almost determine the deviation and correlation + tolerance)
But I sincerely wish you would talk openly in this forum as we need your inputs as well. Don't just 'peep-in' and become 'observers'.
------------------------
The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted : 03 January 2007 at 12:21pm
| arifin34 wrote: |
| Oops.... sorry again. I'm apologising cos I don't want to offend anyone, esp. to you all, my dear friends. Oklah, I'm just an ordinary 'economic chartist' (Fred Tam prefers me to stake claim as a 'chartist' or 'technical analyst' - that's coming directly from him) who happens to be trained in develoment economics.... so I think I understand quite a bit on what the other forumers are talking about in this tread (most of you are really farsighted - that augurs well for this thread hey Brigitte aren't the GMN people up there thinking of awarding some kind of Awards as an added incentive?!). I said 'quite a bit' cos nobody actually knows what's going to happen in the real world. Economists are good (very good) at making simplifying assumptions in their analyses. No two economists think alike, I guess... that's why some people even make jokes about the economics profession - a dismal science they say! Why, even the famous London School of Economics placed 'Economics' under the Social Sciences. And mind you, that was George Soros' alma matter! The other irony is that not all economists are exposed to the capital markets (bourses included) even though (to me) "the stock market is the panaceae of capitalist economics"! Most economists I knew were at lost when discussing about the stock market - they knew about the theoretical objectives of having one but not of how it works, and more importantly how one can read and figure out the direction of the trends. That's FORECASTING... and I have learned it not at the universities but purely thru SHELF STUDY. I hope you people realise what I'm trying to say. You see, the good point is: You don't have to be an economist to be a stock market expert but having some economics background really helps - even though sometimes the two don't jive. And last but not least, brush up your knowledge in ICT (e.g. master the tools in the softwares) ..... and become more of a 'pakar ekonomi' & 'pakar IT' rolled up into one, as in the lyrics of 'Keranamu Malaysia'. Then you'll be unbeatable.... and with a bit of luck you can even Beat the Markets! Bye, c u next year! From an 'economic chartist' (or ist it a 'charting economist'?). |
I like to agree to Fred Tam. I share the thinking that an economic chartist is also a technical analyst (not 'or' but 'and') - you're just being humble..that's all.
Lemme have the honour of 'analysing' you Bro Ariffin, I haven't done this in a long time - so you must excuse my rusty knowledge
Technical Analysis
Although in your posts, there are still conventional patterns of taking into account past investment returns/prices and relating price vs current value of expected cash flow from investment, I've also noticed some strong elements of quantitative investment analysis in almost ALL your posts which relates further to other variables (e.g. account ratio? - overpriced stocks or stocks with higher ratios of market price to equity book value may generate lower risk-adjusted returns) and there have been attempts using chaos, fractal, & neural. (am not sure about AI)
Charting
Then I'm assuming, you start plotting past prices vs time using charts to detect downward/upward trend which you have always 'predicted' to continue (trend persistence).
You're not too fast cos' it's dangerous for investors but you 'play along' with the flow of 'educating cum alerting' so that people like me can understand and absorb what you're talking about.
To all forumers, charting is not simply hypotheses but it requires a gread deal of experience cos' investors are getting more knowledgeable everyday. It's not simply depending on softwares or system that proclaimed can do everything for you.
Charting 'the bro Ariffin way' (or Fred Tam's way) can also ascertain the trend limit based on peaks/troughs connections and resistance/support levels, osciillators/schochastics - price positioning measurement vs low/high price/momentum and of course empirical factors - using your intuition to expect some 'drastic/erratic' volatilities and investor's psychology.
- that's where we (and/or 'investors') know when to buy or to sell or simply put as 'bear/bull' (also very useful to 'futures' as well)
Additionally - what johndoe said in his views on KLCI 07 is also very accurate - "The stock market is just like wheat harvesting. After a great harvest, the farm must be burned down into ashes creating a natural fertilizer for the next planting/harvest"
whereby I self-termed as the fiscal first quarterly effect - usually after December, there'll be a year-end liquidity rise & tax loss trading reduction - so you should be expecting good times for January, February (but probably not end March) unless what have been promised are being fulfilled -> implementation/performance/ transparency <- the real stuff that I like to see (This para is also self-explanatory of why in some posts, I'm a bit reserved in the KLCI future predictions - but this 'reservation' doesn't imply that I'm pessimistic)
Thus, the abovementioned JohnDoe's views should be intergrated with ariffin's charting/analysis - then investors should be safe!
On my side ; on the other hand; have always been 'picked up here & there' (multiple styles) of looking into the trend + asymetrical/psychological effects (spectral) on stock values/economy - triggered by political party assembly, elections or equivalent (depending on the chosen candidates - what they talk about/promise, economy gameplan, policies etc.), Yes...corporate good governance, delivery systems, book value, blah-blah-blah as well.
Other psychological factors may also relate to 'force majeur elements' that I've mentioned in one of my recent posts, such as war, environmental issues, natural disasters etc. Don't forget big events such as games & competitions (spurious correlation) such as World Cup, Olympic Games etc.
Other variables - currency movement (depreciate/appreciate?) vs inflation vs growth, inequilibrium in trade balances etc. Investors must also have knowledge on the industries/products/operations/core-business processes that they have interest in.
To be on safer side, Ariffin + John + Nik's modus operandi - you'll be a super knowledgeable investor..hehehehe.
Lemme have the honour of 'analysing' you Bro Ariffin, I haven't done this in a long time - so you must excuse my rusty knowledge
Technical Analysis
Although in your posts, there are still conventional patterns of taking into account past investment returns/prices and relating price vs current value of expected cash flow from investment, I've also noticed some strong elements of quantitative investment analysis in almost ALL your posts which relates further to other variables (e.g. account ratio? - overpriced stocks or stocks with higher ratios of market price to equity book value may generate lower risk-adjusted returns) and there have been attempts using chaos, fractal, & neural. (am not sure about AI)
Charting
Then I'm assuming, you start plotting past prices vs time using charts to detect downward/upward trend which you have always 'predicted' to continue (trend persistence).
You're not too fast cos' it's dangerous for investors but you 'play along' with the flow of 'educating cum alerting' so that people like me can understand and absorb what you're talking about.
To all forumers, charting is not simply hypotheses but it requires a gread deal of experience cos' investors are getting more knowledgeable everyday. It's not simply depending on softwares or system that proclaimed can do everything for you.
Charting 'the bro Ariffin way' (or Fred Tam's way) can also ascertain the trend limit based on peaks/troughs connections and resistance/support levels, osciillators/schochastics - price positioning measurement vs low/high price/momentum and of course empirical factors - using your intuition to expect some 'drastic/erratic' volatilities and investor's psychology.
- that's where we (and/or 'investors') know when to buy or to sell or simply put as 'bear/bull' (also very useful to 'futures' as well)
Additionally - what johndoe said in his views on KLCI 07 is also very accurate - "The stock market is just like wheat harvesting. After a great harvest, the farm must be burned down into ashes creating a natural fertilizer for the next planting/harvest"
whereby I self-termed as the fiscal first quarterly effect - usually after December, there'll be a year-end liquidity rise & tax loss trading reduction - so you should be expecting good times for January, February (but probably not end March) unless what have been promised are being fulfilled -> implementation/performance/ transparency <- the real stuff that I like to see (This para is also self-explanatory of why in some posts, I'm a bit reserved in the KLCI future predictions - but this 'reservation' doesn't imply that I'm pessimistic)
Thus, the abovementioned JohnDoe's views should be intergrated with ariffin's charting/analysis - then investors should be safe!
On my side ; on the other hand; have always been 'picked up here & there' (multiple styles) of looking into the trend + asymetrical/psychological effects (spectral) on stock values/economy - triggered by political party assembly, elections or equivalent (depending on the chosen candidates - what they talk about/promise, economy gameplan, policies etc.), Yes...corporate good governance, delivery systems, book value, blah-blah-blah as well.
Other psychological factors may also relate to 'force majeur elements' that I've mentioned in one of my recent posts, such as war, environmental issues, natural disasters etc. Don't forget big events such as games & competitions (spurious correlation) such as World Cup, Olympic Games etc.
Other variables - currency movement (depreciate/appreciate?) vs inflation vs growth, inequilibrium in trade balances etc. Investors must also have knowledge on the industries/products/operations/core-business processes that they have interest in.
To be on safer side, Ariffin + John + Nik's modus operandi - you'll be a super knowledgeable investor..hehehehe.
No comments:
Post a Comment