An assessment based on information available as at 8 November 2026. Historical figures, preliminary estimates and forecasts are distinguished below.
Asia’s energy security depends on its ability to provide reliable and affordable energy while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These objectives must advance together: unreliable supply disrupts economic activity, unaffordable energy places pressure on households and industry, and continued emissions growth increases climate risks.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) can contribute to this effort by diversifying gas supplies and supporting certain industrial and electricity needs. However, its contribution to decarbonisation depends on how it is produced, transported and used and what energy source it replaces.
1) CURRENT POSITON: GROWING ENERGY DEMAND AND VULNERABLE SUPPLY
Asia is not one uniform energy market. Countries differ in domestic resources, infrastructure, purchasing power and energy policies. Regional planning must therefore accommodate different national circumstances.
Southeast Asia illustrates the scale of the challenge. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2026 projects that the region will account for nearly 20% of global energy demand growth to 2035 under today’s policy settings. Before the current crisis, approximately one-third of its gas imports came from the Middle East, exposing buyers to concentrated supply routes.
The 2026 disruption demonstrates why this exposure matters. The IEA’s Global Gas Security Review 2026 reports the following:
2) HOW DEMAND CAN RISE OVER TIME WHEN GAS CONSUMPTION FALLS TODAY
Long-term energy needs and short-term fuel consumption are different measures.
Industrial development, electrification, cooling and digital infrastructure can increase electricity requirements. However, high LNG prices can simultaneously reduce gas consumption by making gas-fired generation and industrial production less economical.
The IEA forecasts a 1.5% decline in Asia-Pacific natural gas demand in 2026, partly reflecting switching from gas to coal and reduced activity in energy-intensive industries. Lower gas consumption under these circumstances should not automatically be interpreted as improved efficiency or successful decarbonisation.
Southeast Asia also faces a structural supply challenge. In the IEA’s stated-policies scenario, regional gas production declines from approximately 210 billion cubic metres in 2024 to 175 billion cubic metres by 2035, while gas demand grows by more than 30%. These are scenario projections, rather than guaranteed outcomes, but they illustrate the potential widening gap between domestic production and consumption.
3) HOW LNG FROM OTHER COUNTRIES CAN CONTRIBUTE
The strongest contribution from overseas LNG is greater choice: more suppliers, more delivery routes and more flexibility when disruptions occur.
The United States has contributed additional supply through facilities including Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage 3. Canada, Mexico, Mauritania and Senegal also entered the LNG export market through new projects reflected in the IEA’s 2025 assessment. Globally, LNG exports reached approximately 580 billion cubic metres in 2025, equivalent to around 13% of natural gas consumption.
Canada provides a practical example of a new supply route to Asia. LNG Canada loaded its first export cargo on 30 June 2025. Its initial two processing trains have a combined nameplate capacity of 14 million tonnes per year. Nameplate capacity indicates design capability; actual annual deliveries depend on operating performance and utilisation.
PETRONAS holds a 25% interest in LNG Canada and announced that its first cargo from the facility departed for Japan on 7 July 2025. The company identifies the project’s west-coast location as providing a direct shipping corridor to North Asian markets. This illustrates how a Malaysian energy company can diversify its portfolio through overseas production partnerships.
The policy implication is to evaluate suppliers as a portfolio. Diversification should consider geography, shipping routes, contractual flexibility, reliability, delivered cost and emissions performance. Purchasing from several companies does not provide sufficient protection if their cargoes depend on the same vulnerable route.
4) DOES LNG QUALIFY AS LOWER CARBON ENERGY?
LNG remains a fossil fuel. Its environmental performance must be assessed across the full chain:
The IEA’s updated September 2026 assessment estimates average emissions from LNG production through regasification at 18.6 grammes of CO₂ equivalent per megajoule delivered. This figure excludes final combustion and downstream distribution after regasification. It must therefore not be presented as LNG’s complete life-cycle emissions intensity.
An earlier IEA assessment, based on 2024 data, found that LNG had approximately 25% lower life-cycle emissions than coal on average under its methodology. That comparison does not establish an identical saving for every power station, industrial installation or supply route.
For a particular project, the assessment should examine:
- The fuel or technology being displaced,
- Gas leakage and methane emissions throughout the supply chain,
- Energy used for liquefaction and transport, and
- The efficiency and operating pattern of the receiving plant.
Whether renewable electricity, storage, electrification or efficiency could deliver the same service with lower emissions.
LNG can support emissions reduction where verified performance demonstrates an improvement over the realistic alternative. A general description such as “clean LNG” is insufficient evidence.
5) ACTIONS BEING TAKEN
Several developments show how energy security and emissions management can advance together.
More flexible LNG trade - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that destination-flexible contracts represented more than 50% of LNG contracts in 2025, compared with 29% in 2016. Such arrangements help redirect cargoes towards markets experiencing shortages, although buyers remain exposed to competition and price increases,
Greater emissions transparency - Initiatives including the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0 and the Coalition for LNG Emissions Abatement toward Net-zero are improving the structure and visibility of emissions reporting. The IEA nevertheless cautions that significant uncertainty remains in supply-chain estimates, and
Regional electricity cooperation - On 14 January 2026, Tenaga Nasional Berhad, @Electricite du Laos and the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) signed an agreement supporting the second phase of the Lao PDR–Thailand–Malaysia–Singapore Power Integration Project. TNB stated that the arrangement completed implementation enabling total electricity trade of up to 200 MW, including additional supply from Malaysia to Singapore.
This matters because energy security also improves when countries can share electricity and diversify the resources used to generate it.
6) WHAT'S NEXT
The following priorities emerge from these findings.
a) Plan Electricity and Gas together - Demand forecasts should consider industrial growth, cooling, data centres, renewable deployment, storage and efficiency. LNG terminals, pipelines and power stations should be assessed against several demand and price scenarios before investment decisions are made,
b) Diversify both Suppliers and Routes - Procurement strategies should examine common exposure to shipping chokepoints, upstream facilities and contractual restrictions. Emergency arrangements should identify alternative cargoes, delivery windows and available receiving capacity,
c) Match Contracts to Realistic Demand - Long-term purchases can support supply certainty, but excessive fixed commitments can become costly if demand falls. Buyers should assess volume flexibility, resale rights, pricing formulas and take-or-pay obligations together,
d) Make Lower Emissions Claims Measurable - Procurement specifications should define reporting boundaries, require credible methane data and provide for independent verification. Improvements at the liquefaction plant should be distinguished from improvements across the complete supply chain,
e) Accelerate Efficiency, Renewables, Grids and Storage - These investments should proceed alongside necessary fuel procurement. The IEA estimates that renewables, electrification and efficiency investments since 2015 reduced Southeast Asia’s fossil-fuel import costs by approximately US$30 billion in 2025,
f) Strengthen Operational Resilience - Receiving terminals, pipelines and power stations require effective maintenance, competent operators, emergency preparedness, cybersecurity and tested continuity arrangements. Additional supply contracts have limited value if receiving infrastructure cannot operate reliably, and
g) Assign Accountability and Track Results - Governments, utilities and operators should establish owners, deadlines and measurable indicators. Useful measures include supplier concentration, outage frequency, energy intensity, methane emissions, verified emissions per unit of electricity and the share of demand that can respond during emergencies.
Asia’s energy future will be stronger when diversified LNG supply is combined with domestic resources, regional electricity cooperation and sustained investment in lower-emissions alternatives. LNG’s role should be judged by the reliability it adds, the exposure it reduces and the emissions improvement it can demonstrate.
