Global Knowledge Management and Economy - Nik Zafri

AS PREDICTED BY NIK ZAFRI




As Nik Zafri has predicted, there will be signs of recovery for Malaysia from April, 2009

NIK ZAFRI'S HUMBLE FORECAST FOR 2009 - (Made in December, 2008)

2ND SIGN

1ST SIGN


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THE STAR - BUSINESS

Thursday April 16, 2009

Economy expected to perform better, says Bank Negara

KUALA LUMPUR: The economy should perform better in the second half of the year as the fiscal stimulus packages are implemented and the effects of the supportive monetary environment kick in, Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said.

"The first quarter was very much affected by external economic contraction taking place, our exports numbers have shown that,” she said.

Malaysian Institute of Economic Research expects local exports to decline 24% this year on sagging worldwide demand, the think tank said in its report yesterday.
Speaking after launching the Interbank Murabahah Master Agreement (IMMA) and Master Agency Agreement (MAA) yesterday, Zeti said the domestic economy was still growing and “this is what we need to sustain the country’s economy”.

Asked if the central bank would revise its economic growth target, she said: “Right now, we have made the assumption that in the second half, the external environment will stabilise and that the fiscal stimulus packages will be implemented.”

“And so, in the current environment, our projection is flat growth as the contraction of the external sector would be offset by domestic demand,” she said.

Bank Negara has projected the economy to register a growth rate of -1% to 1% this year.

On whether the economy had bottomed, Zeti said: “No, it is not clear yet what the direction is in the global economy.”

There was “some stabilisation” taking place but “we still have to wait and see”, she said.

To another query on interest rates, the governor said the central bank had already adopted an aggressive stance and now the focus was to ensure that lending continued.

Zeti said there was no need to raise banks’ minimum capital requirement at the moment.

Non-performing loans were at a historical low now at just over 2%, she said, adding that even if the rates rose, banks were “well positioned to absorb it”.

Zeti said Malaysia did not manage its exchange rate against any specific currency.

“The currency is not a policy instrument but is used to facilitate trade and investment,” she said.

Meanwhile, the newly launched agreements have been adopted by the members of the Association of Islamic Banking Institutions Malaysia (AIBIM) for their deposit-taking and placement transactions.

AIBIM president Datuk Zukri Samat said the adoption of the IMMA and MAA documents would help increase the intensity of Islamic interbank activities.

Like any other money market products, the success of commodity murabahah-based instruments would depend largely on the existence of a standardised document as well as a universally-acceptable structure that was widely recognised by the market, he said.
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Published: Thursday April 16, 2009 MYT 9:39:00 AM
Updated: Thursday April 16, 2009 MYT 9:41:26 AM

TNB powers KLCI early rise

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares on Bursa Malaysia jumped in early Thursday trade, as Wall Street rebound overnight buoyed investors’ sentiment across Asia.

Tenaga Nasional Bhd led rising stocks, adding 25 sen to RM6.75 on brighter outlook despite a drop in profits in the second quarter.

The surge in trading volume in the past few days also helped lift sentiment on the exchange operator, Bursa Malaysia Bhd. The stock climbed 25 sen to RM6.25.

Another big movers among index-linked companies was Malayan Banking Bhd. The counter soared 16sen to RM4.48.

The KL Composite Index advanced 11.44 points, or 1.2% to 968.12 points as at 9.27am. Turnover had surpassed 400 million shares worth at least RM200mil less than half an hour into trade.

The FBM Small Cap index, which track stocks outside the top 100 counters, gained 1.65% to 7,549 points

Around the region, stocks opened higher after stocks on Wall Street staged a late rally overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial ended 1.4% higher to 8,029 and the broader S&P 500 index gained 1.25% to 852 points.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 shot up 3% to 9,007 points, while Seoul’s main Kospi index opened 2.4% higher at 1,365 points. Singapore’s Straits Times index kick off Thursday’s trade with a 2% gain at 1,943 points.
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Thursday April 16, 2009

Local stock market promising, set to make gains: CIMB Research

By EDY SARIF

PETALING JAYA: The local stock market outlook is promising and set for further gains due to the “political succession effect and the bottoming of foreign selling,” CIMB Research said.

“We see an improved outlook for the market due to a few reasons,” the research house wrote in its latest report.

“One is the political succession effect when Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak took over as prime minister. Historically, the market performed strongly in the three to six months before and after the changes.”

CIMB Research recently upgraded its rating on the local stockmarket to “overweight” from “neutral” and also raised its target for the KL Composite Index (KLCI) to 1,060 points from 1,013.

An imminent “reversal” in the flow of foreign funds would further lift the local bourse, the research house said, noting that foreign shareholdings were at their lowest level in February since September 2003, at only US$3bil (RM10.85bil).

“The slowdown in foreign fund’s net selling should lessen the downside pressure on share prices,” CIMB Research said.

“In fact, a reversal of these trends would provide a fillip to the market given local and foreign funds’ very high cash levels.”

It added that “a reversal should be imminent as the 12 straight months of net selling are unprecedented”.

Fortress Capital Asset Management (M) Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Thomas Yong said the current assessment on how the stock market was doing was much clearer to investors.

“This is supported by a significant amount of rebound in the market as Malaysia, with less foreign ownership, seems to recover much faster as compared with Singapore and Hong Kong,” he told StarBiz.

Aberdeen Asset Management fund manager Abdul Jalil Abdul Rasheed said as a long-term investor, they were not looking much at the daily performance of stock market.

“We don’t strategise ourselves for short-term market rally as what is happening now in the market. We are steadily buying regardless of whether the market is up or down. In fact, we buy more when the market is down,” he told StarBiz.

But some fund managers remain cautious, according to Kumpulan Sentiasa Cemerlang Sdn Bhd research director Choong Khuat Hock.

“These fund managers (would not rush in) to buy the stocks as they are not sure whether the market recovery would be sustainable,” he told Starbiz, referring to recent stock market rallies.