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NIK ZAFRI BIN ABDUL MAJID,
CONSULTANT/TRAINER
Email: nikzafri@yahoo.com, nikzafri@gmail.com
https://nikzafri.wixsite.com/nikzafri

Kelantanese, Alumni of Sultan Ismail College Kelantan (SICA), IT Competency Cert, Certified Written English Professional US. Has participated in many seminars/conferences (local/ international) in the capacity of trainer/lecturer and participant.

Affiliations :- Network Member of Gerson Lehrman Group, Institute of Quality Malaysia, Auditor ISO 9000 IRCAUK, Auditor OHSMS (SIRIM and STS) /EMS ISO 14000 and Construction Quality Assessment System CONQUAS, CIDB (Now BCA) Singapore),

* Possesses almost 30 years of experience/hands-on in the multi-modern management & technical disciplines (systems & methodologies) such as Knowledge Management (Hi-Impact Management/ICT Solutions), Quality (TQM/ISO), Safety Health Environment, Civil & Building (Construction), Manufacturing, Motivation & Team Building, HR, Marketing/Branding, Business Process Reengineering, Economy/Stock Market, Contracts/Project Management, Finance & Banking, etc. He was employed to international bluechips involving in national/international megaprojects such as Balfour Beatty Construction/Knight Piesold & Partners UK, MMI Insurance Group Australia, Hazama Corporation (Hazamagumi) Japan (with Mitsubishi Corporation, JA Jones US, MMCE and Ho-Hup) and Sunway Construction Berhad (The Sunway Group of Companies). Among major projects undertaken : Pergau Hydro Electric Project, KLCC Petronas Twin Towers, LRT Tunnelling, KLIA, Petronas Refineries Melaka, Putrajaya Government Complex, Sistem Lingkaran Lebuhraya Kajang (SILK), Mex Highway, KLIA1, KLIA2 etc. Once serviced SMPD Management Consultants as Associate Consultant cum Lecturer for Diploma in Management, Institute of Supervisory Management UK/SMPD JV. Currently – Associate/Visiting Consultants/Facilitators, Advisors for leading consulting firms (local and international) including project management. To name a few – Noma SWO Consult, Amiosh Resources, Timur West Consultant Sdn. Bhd., TIJ Consultants Group (Malaysia and Singapore) and many others.

* Ex-Resident Weekly Columnist of Utusan Malaysia (1995-1998) and have produced more than 100 articles related to ISO-9000– Management System and Documentation Models, TQM Strategic Management, Occupational Safety and Health (now OHSAS 18000) and Environmental Management Systems ISO 14000. His write-ups/experience has assisted many students/researchers alike in module developments based on competency or academics and completion of many theses. Once commended by the then Chief Secretary to the Government of Malaysia for his diligence in promoting and training the civil services (government sector) based on “Total Quality Management and Quality Management System ISO-9000 in Malaysian Civil Service – Paradigm Shift Scalar for Assessment System”

Among Nik Zafri’s clients : Adabi Consumer Industries Sdn. Bhd, (MRP II, Accounts/Credit Control) The HQ of Royal Customs and Excise Malaysia (ISO 9000), Veterinary Services Dept. Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), The Institution of Engineers Malaysia (Aspects of Project Management – KLCC construction), Corporate HQ of RHB (Peter Drucker's MBO/KRA), NEC Semiconductor - Klang Selangor (Productivity Management), Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia (ISO 9000), State Secretarial Office Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), Hidrological Department KL (ISO 9000), Asahi Kluang Johor(System Audit, Management/Supervisory Development), Tunku Mahmood (2) Primary School Kluang Johor (ISO 9000), Consortium PANZANA (HSSE 3rd Party Audit), Lecturer for Information Technology Training Centre (ITTC) – Authorised Training Center (ATC) – University of Technology Malaysia (UTM) Kluang Branch Johor, Kluang General Hospital Johor (Management/Supervision Development, Office Technology/Administration, ISO 9000 & Construction Management), Kahang Timur Secondary School Johor (ISO 9000), Sultan Abdul Jalil Secondary School Kluang Johor (Islamic Motivation and Team Building), Guocera Tiles Industries Kluang Johor (EMS ISO 14000), MNE Construction (M) Sdn. Bhd. Kota Tinggi Johor (ISO 9000 – Construction), UITM Shah Alam Selangor (Knowledge Management/Knowledge Based Economy /TQM), Telesystem Electronics/Digico Cable(ODM/OEM for Astro – ISO 9000), Sungai Long Industries Sdn. Bhd. (Bina Puri Group) - ISO 9000 Construction), Secura Security Printing Sdn. Bhd,(ISO 9000 – Security Printing) ROTOL AMS Bumi Sdn. Bhd & ROTOL Architectural Services Sdn. Bhd. (ROTOL Group) – ISO 9000 –Architecture, Bond M & E (KL) Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9000 – Construction/M & E), Skyline Telco (M) Sdn. Bhd. (Knowledge Management),Technochase Sdn. Bhd JB (ISO 9000 – Construction), Institut Kefahaman Islam Malaysia (IKIM – ISO 9000 & Internal Audit Refresher), Shinryo/Steamline Consortium (Petronas/OGP Power Co-Generation Plant Melaka – Construction Management and Safety, Health, Environment), Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Negotiation Skills), Association for Retired Intelligence Operatives of Malaysia (Cyber Security – Arpa/NSFUsenet, Cobit, Till, ISO/IEC ISMS 27000 for Law/Enforcement/Military), T.Yamaichi Corp. (M) Sdn. Bhd. (EMS ISO 14000) LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd., (Lean Scoreboard (including a full development of System-Software-Application - MSC Malaysia & Six Sigma) PJZ Marine Services Sdn. Bhd., (Safety Management Systems and Internal Audit based on International Marine Organization Standards) UNITAR/UNTEC (Degree in Accountacy – Career Path/Roadmap) Cobrain Holdings Sdn. Bhd.(Managing Construction Safety & Health), Speaker for International Finance & Management Strategy (Closed Conference), Pembinaan Jaya Zira Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9001:2008-Internal Audit for Construction Industry & Overview of version 2015), Straits Consulting Engineers Sdn. Bhd. (Full Integrated Management System – ISO 9000, OHSAS 18000 (ISO 45000) and EMS ISO 14000 for Civil/Structural/Geotechnical Consulting), Malaysia Management & Science University (MSU – (Managing Business in an Organization), Innoseven Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 MSPR8 – Awareness and Internal Audit (Construction), ISO 9001:2008 and 2015 overview for the Construction Industry), Kemakmuran Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 - Signages/Wayfinding - Project Quality Plan and Construction Method Statement ), Lembaga Tabung Haji - Flood ERP, WNA Consultants - DID/JPS -Flood Risk Assessment and Management Plan - Prelim, Conceptual Design, Interim and Final Report etc., Tunnel Fire Safety - Fire Risk Assessment Report - Design Fire Scenario), Safety, Health and Environmental Management Plans leading construction/property companies/corporations in Malaysia, Timur West Consultant : Business Methodology and System, Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) ISO/IEC 27001:2013 for Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya ISMS/Audit/Risk/ITP Technical Team, MPDT Capital Berhad - ISO 9001: 2015 - Consultancy, Construction, Project Rehabilitation, Desalination (first one in Malaysia to receive certification on trades such as Reverse Osmosis Seawater Desalination and Project Recovery/Rehabilitation)

* Has appeared for 10 consecutive series in “Good Morning Malaysia RTM TV1’ Corporate Talk Segment discussing on ISO 9000/14000 in various industries. For ICT, his inputs garnered from his expertise have successfully led to development of work-process e-enabling systems in the environments of intranet, portal and interactive web design especially for the construction and manufacturing. Some of the end products have won various competitions of innovativeness, quality, continual-improvements and construction industry award at national level. He has also in advisory capacity – involved in development and moderation of websites, portals and e-profiles for mainly corporate and private sectors, public figures etc. He is also one of the recipients for MOSTE Innovation for RFID use in Electronic Toll Collection in Malaysia.

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Wednesday, November 27, 2013

What Is Wrong With The System? - NIK ZAFRI


Today, some might say that all these management buzzwords such as ISO, TQM, Knowledge Management, Key Performance Indicators, Leadership etc. are waste of time, money and  most commonly...they are burdening. 

"Let us work...we're not thinkers, we don't have time for all these extra documentation"  commonly used phrases not only from the downliners but surprisingly the top management as well.

Ok, let's revisit some of the systems - not too technical but some 'loose ends to tie up'.

a) Is the system required by the organization? If so... why? If it's not required, why do it?
b) If the system is required, then how to go about it? Where to start?
c) Is the system tailored-made to the organization scope of services or product?
d) Do the system require 3rd party help? If so...do we need to spend a lot of money?
e) Will the system generate profit? How much?
f)  What do I get implementing the system?

These are the questionnaires that go unanswered. Even though there are some responses but the answers are inconsistent from one person or one company to another.

Before I go on answering these questions..let me emphasize that :

"There is NOTHING wrong with the system"
"It is always about the people running the system"

So, here comes the answers but don't count on them. They are based on my own true experience. Looking into what I have below, you will find a paradox in each of them.

a) Study the work-culture of the company first. (mind you...not the professional part but the human factor)

You may have a very good Human Resources Department in the front line, conduct psychometric tests in interviews, hiring the best candidates for the job, thorough JD and KPIs, organizing trainings and workshops and so on. 

But you will be perplexed of so many candidates being interviewed have some similarities : they always promise you 'miracles' but after being hired, they appear not to be so motivated anymore except at month end and awaiting final performance evaluation.

Yes, you can have motivation and team buildings sessions, bring them on a company trip or organizing a family day with good meals, you still can't make it, not long after the meaningful event, they go back to their old ways!

Thus, what sort of system that you need to bring in? Strange it might seems...the system must go according to the work culture and environment of the company. Bring change but not changing the work culture - the changes in the existing work culture is the prerogative of the MD or President only. 

Surprising, the top management will feel offended when people start questioning or changing the work culture. So...do not touch the work culture - even how negative it may seem to you, bring in any system, it will eventually work!

b) The system will be required when THE COMPANY START TO LOOSE MONEY! or there is a law governing the need of the system.

So bring in or suggest a cheap and affordable system first but ensure that you give a comprehensive information. 

No hiding! 

No "who move my cheese" policy! 

No "pay me first and I'll do the job"

Give the company or the top management what they need and not what you need...(money). 

Believe me, they will share the cake with you. (those who overlook to give you bonus or raise or payment - should the company is successful due to your contribution...will always LOOSE in the end - trust me..I know - it's like karma)

c) Tailor made? Yes, it must be customized according to the type of services or scope of work of the company. Do not introduce something totally irrelevant even how good you are.

d) On the issue of requiring 3rd party help...the answer is YES and NO. 

"Yes" - if you are not familiar with the system or you do not have the confidence doing the system. And later after the system is established and running, there is NO need for a consultant's help unless for maintenance only.

"No" - if you are bold enough "to go where no man has gone before" then conduct your own research - there are plenty of information and data online. Join public training, conventions, buy books or materials, join forums online etc. Ask a second opinion only when required - remember, choose the right people that you wish to enquire, otherwise you'll end up with suggestions like "let me be your advisor and consultant" and you will be back at square one.

e) The system will generate profit provided that the organization is TRANSPARENT, not greedy for money and started to control money stingily. Do not alter the figures to avoid detection of PROFIT by the financial auditors prior to year-end audit. What is there...present them...adopt a high integrity and sincerity. 

Give away bonus or perks to those who have worked hard and dilligent. There may not be a need for the employers to see 'documented evidence'. 

Just look at your subordinates below...you'll be surprised - how many staff are willing doing good job without wanting recognition (now this is what we call "JOB SATISFACTION")- just reward them...give them your full attention! These are your loyal supporters!!

f) The question of what do you get out of the implementation is subject to the following :

a) The willingness to change your mindset on :

i) If you have a Safety or Quality Policy, it is NOT a safety/quality policy, it is YOUR COMPANY's Policy - so goes to the Safety or Quality System or KRA or KPI etc. It is the COMPANY's system. It is about the way your company work and not "I'm doing this because I want the ISO cert" 

Believe me..after you get some international recognition, you and your staff will abandon the system eventually. And this abandonment will also happen when : 

ii) you think that the system is burdening you, then you will be 'murdering' the system or hoping for some miracle that the system will become an android one day and work by itself. 

iii) you have some funny ideas that "this is not part of my Job Description", "I'm not paid to this system", "I want a raise"..then you and your staff will shy away and not feel part of the system. (No OWNERSHIP feeling)

And please.... Stop the madness about qualifications and affiliationships, MBAs, PhDs, Chartered Member of some Space Garrison etc. 

-  Hire the person who can do the job,
-  Do not discriminate the 'less qualified' person by giving a low paid salary, (pay according to his performance)
-  Hire a sincere person,
-  Reward the person regardless to his/her position - office assistant, despatch rider or even a general labour if proven the person is responsible enough to promote your company and bring good projects  and prospects to you.

Think of the system as a PROFITABLE investment to you. So, be happy and proud of the system and when implementing it or reviewing them...

CHANGE THE WAY YOU LOOK AT NEGATIVENESS! 
TURN NEGATIVENESS INTO POWERFUL POSITIVE ONES!

Feel the system and you'll be fine.

Sunday, November 17, 2013

KAJIAN RINGKAS EKONOMI DUNIA 2014 - NIK ZAFRI


KDNK untuk Asia diunjurkan melebihi purata 6.2% pada tahun 2014. Faktor yang mempengaruhi angka ini ialah keadaan tidak menentu di Filipina, India, Indonesia, Thailand dan Taiwan - kemungkinan besar akan disebabkan oleh kekurangan peluang pekerjaan dan jurang pendapatan sebagaimana jangkaan Forum Ekonomi Dunia. 

India diunjurkan akan berhadapan dengan sedikit penurunan ke KDNK 4.7%. Begitu juga dengan Filipina. Kerajaan India bekerja keras untuk mengimbangkan peluang kerja dan pembangunan industri. Di samping itu, Reserve Bank of India telah menurunkan Kadar Kemudahan Piawai Marginal -50 poin asas ke 9%.

Foto Bencana Alam di Filipina (Washington Post)

Walaubagaimanapun India dan Filipina berisiko dilanda bencana alam yang mungkin akan mengganggugugat aktiviti ekonominya.

Diunjurkan ekonomi Singapura dan Korea akan berlaku sedikit peningkatan manakala China, Hong Kong, Vietnam dan Malaysia tidak mengalami apa-apa perubahan yang ketara. 

KDNK Malaysia diunjurkan 5% (Foto : boothopia wordpress)

'Shutdown' di Amerika Syarikat (US) mungkin akan membuka ruang antara Republikan dan Demokrat untuk berbincang kembali mengenai siling hutang negara. Namun Kongres mengambil langkah berjaga-jaga dengan sebarang keputusan. Dijangka kata putus perlu dicapai pada bulan Disember, 2013 atau pada 15 Januari, 2014.

                                                                                    Shutdown di US (Foto : bbc)


Jepun telah mengisytiharkan kenaikan GST ke 3% pada tahun 2014 dan bagi memastikan kestabilan ekonominya, lebih USD50 billion (5 Trillion Yen) pakej rangsangan telah diperuntukkan. Ini termasuklah siri pelepasan cukai dan rumah kos rendah.

Program 'bailout' di Eropah, Sepanyol, Greece dan Ireland berjalan agak lancar. Portugal pula mengumumkan pakej EUR 3.2 billion bagi mencapai sasaran defisit belanjawan bagi memastikan program 'bailout' nya akan berjaya.

Program Bailout (Foto : zerohedge)

China disasarkan akan berkembang KDNKnya hampir atau melebihi 7.8% setahun hasil pelepasan cukai dan pelaburan dalam industri 'railway' 

Saturday, November 09, 2013

Some Basic Ideas about Quantum Mechanics




Stephen Jenkins

Modern physics is dominated by the concepts of Quantum Mechanics. This page aims to give a brief introduction to some of these ideas.

Until the closing decades of the last century the physical world, as studied by experiment, could be explained according to the principles of classical (or Newtonian) mechanics: the physics of everyday life. By the turn of the century, however, the cracks were beginning to show and the disciplines of Relativity and Quantum Mechanics were developed to account for them. Relativity came first, and described the physics of very massive and very fast objects, then came Quantum Mechanics in the 1920's to describe the physics of very small objects.

Neither of these theories provide an easy intuitive picture of the world, since they contradict the predictions of familiar Newtonian Mechanics in the regimes for which they were developed. Nevertheless, both schemes reproduce the Newtonian results when applied to the everyday world. In seeking to understand the physics of semiconductors at an atomic level we must start from a Quantum Mechanical viewpoint, since the entities with which we will be dealing (electrons, atoms, etc) are so very small....

Waves and Particles

At the macroscopic scale we are used to two broad types of phenomena: waves and particles. Briefly, particles are localised phenomena which transport both mass and energy as they move, while waves are de-localised phenomena (that is they are spread-out in space) which carry energy but no mass as they move. Physical objects that one can touch are particle-like phenomena (e.g. cricket balls), while ripples on a lake (for example) are waves (note that there is no net transport of water: hence no net transport of mass)

              (photo from i.livescience)

In Quantum Mechanics this neat distinction is blurred. Entities which we would normally think of as particles (e.g. electrons) can behave like waves in certain situations, while entities which we would normally think of as waves (e.g. electromagnetic radiation: light) can behave like particles. Thus electrons can create wave-like diffraction patterns upon passing through narrow slits, just like water waves do as they pass through the entrance to a harbour. Conversely, the photoelectric effect (i.e. the absorption of light by electrons in solids) can only be explained if the light has a particulate nature (leading to the concept of photons).

Such ideas led DeBroglie to the conclusion that all entities had both wave and particle aspects, and that different aspects were manifested by the entity according to what type of process it was undergoing. This became known as the Principle of Wave-Particle Duality. Furthermore, DeBroglie was able to relate the momentum of a "particle" to the wavelength (i.e. the peak-to-peak distance) of the corresponding "wave". The DeBroglie relation tells us that p=h/lambda, where p is the particle's momentum, lambda is its wavelength and h is Planck's constant. Thus it is possible to calculate the quantum wavelength of a particle through knowledge of its momentum.

This was important because wave phenomena, such as diffraction, are generally only important when waves interact with objects of a size comparable to their wavelength. Fortunately for the theory, the wavelength of everyday objects moving at everyday speeds turns out to be incredibly small. So small in fact that no Quantum Mechanical effects should be noticeable at the macroscopic level, confirming that Newtonian Mechanics is perfectly acceptable for everyday applications (as required by the Correspondence Principle). Conversely, small objects like electrons have wavelengths comparable to the microscopic atomic structures they encounter in solids. Thus a Quantum Mechanical description, which includes their wave-like aspects, is essential to their understanding.

Hopefully the foregoing discussion provides a convincing enough argument to use Quantum Mechanical ideas when dealing with electrons in solids. Next we must address the question of how exactly one describes electrons in a wave-like manner....

The Schrodinger Equation


OK, OK, I know I said I would avoid equations, but I can't write about Quantum Mechanics and not mention the biggie now can I ? What I will do is try to talk about the ideas behind the equation, and its consequences, rather than dwell on the form of the equation itself. Given the current limitations of html I'm not even going to try and write it out for you, its easy enough to find in any QM textbook. There are actually two Schrodinger equations: time-dependent and time-independent. We'll start with the time-dependent version and see what all the fuss is about....

The approach suggested by Schrodinger was to postulate a function which would vary in both time and space in a wave-like manner (the so-called wavefunction) and which would carry within it information about a particle or system. The time-dependent Schrodinger equation allows us to deterministically predict the behaviour of the wavefunction over time, once we know its environment. The information concerning environment is in the form of the potential which would be experienced by the particle according to classical mechanics (if you are unfamiliar with the classical concept of potential an explanation is available).

                                      (photo from cdn.physorg)

Whenever we make a measurement on a Quantum system, the results are dictated by the wavefunction at the time at which the measurement is made. It turns out that for each possible quantity we might want to measure (an observable) there is a set of special wavefunctions (known as eigenfunctions) which will always return the same value (an eigenvalue) for the observable. e.g.....

EIGENFUNCTION       always returns      EIGENVALUE
  psi_1(x,t)                               a_1
  psi_2(x,t)                               a_2
  psi_3(x,t)                               a_3
  psi_4(x,t)                               a_4
  etc....                                  etc....
  
where (x,t) is standard notation to remind us that the eigenfunctions psi_n(x,t)
are dependent upon position (x) and time (t).

Even if the wavefunction happens not to be one of these eigenfunctions, it is always possible to think of it as a unique superposition of two or more of the eigenfunctions, e.g....
 
psi(x,t) = c_1*psi_1(x,t) + c_2*psi_2(x,t) + c_3*psi_3(x,t) + ....

where c_1, c_2,.... are coefficients which define the composition of the state.

If a measurement is made on such a state, then the following two things will happen:
  1. The wavefunction will suddenly change into one or other of the eigenfunctions making it up. This is known as the collapse of the wavefunction and the probability of the wavefunction collapsing into a particular eigenfunction depends on how much that eigenfunction contributed to the original superposition. More precisely, the probability that a given eigenfunction will be chosen is proportional to the square of the coefficient of that eigenfunction in the superposition, normalised so that the overall probability of collapse is unity (i.e. the sum of the squares of all the coefficients is 1).
  2. The measurement will return the eigenvalue associated with the eigenfunction into which the wavefunction has collapsed. Clearly therefore the measurement can only ever yield an eigenvalue (even though the original state was not an eigenfunction), and it will do so with a probability determined by the composition of the original superposition. There are clearly only a limited number of discrete values which the observable can take. We say that the system is quantised (which means essentially the same as discretised).
Once the wavefunction has collapsed into one particular eigenfunction it will stay in that state until it is perturbed by the outside world. The fundamental limitation of Quantum Mechanics lies in the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle which tells us that certain quantum measurements disturb the system and push the wavefunction back into a superposed state once again.
For example, consider a measurement of the position of a particle. Before the measurement is made the particle wavefunction is a superposition of several position eigenfunctions, each corresponding to a different possible position for the particle. When the measurement is made the wavefunction collapses into one of these eigenfunctions, with a probability determined by the composition of the original superposition. One particular position will be recorded by the measurement: the one corresponding to the eigenfunction chosen by the particle.
If a further position measurement is made shortly afterwards the wavefunction will still be the same as when the first measurement was made (because nothing has happened to change it), and so the same position will be recorded. However, if a measurement of the momentum of the particle is now made, the particle wavefunction will change to one of the momentum eigenfunctions (which are not the same as the position eigenfunctions). Thus, if a still later measurement of the position is made, the particle will once again be in a superposition of possible position eigenfunctions, so the position recorded by the measurement will once again come down to probability. What all this means is that one cannot know both the position and the momentum of a particle at the same time because when you measure one quantity you randomise the value of the other. See below....
notation: x=position, p=momentum

action         |           wavefunction after action
---------------|-----------------------------------------------------
start          |  superposition of x and/or p eigenfunctions
measure x      |  x eigenfunction = superposition of p eigenfunctions
measure x again|  same x eigenfunction
measure p      |  p eigenfunction = superposition of x eigenfunctions
measure x again|  x eigenfunction (not necessarily same one as before)

Precisely what constitutes a measurement and the process by which the wavefunction collapses are two issues I am not even going to touch on. Suffice to say they are still matters for vigorous debate !
At any rate, in a macroscopic system the wavefunctions of the many component particles are constantly being disturbed by measurement-like processes, so a macroscopic measurement on the system only ever yields a time- and particle- averaged value for an observable. This averaged value need not, of course, be an eigenvalue, so we do not generally observe quantisation at the macroscopic level (the correspondence principle again). If we are to investigate the microscopic behaviour of particles we would (in an ideal world) like to know the wavefunctions of any individual particles at any given instant in time....
The time-dependent Schrodinger equation allows us to calculate the wavefunctions of particles, given the potential in which they move. Importantly, all the solutions of this equation will vary over time in some kind of wave-like manner, but only certain solutions will vary in a predictable pure sinusoidal manner. These special solutions of the time-dependent Schrodinger equation turn out to be the energy eigenfunctions, and can be written as a time-independent factor multiplied by a sinusoidal time-dependent factor related to the energy (in fact the frequency of the sine wave is given by the relation E=h*frequency). Because of the simple time-dependence of these functions the time-dependent Schrodinger equation reduces to the time-independent 
Schrodinger equation for the time-independent part of the energy eigenfunctions. That is to say that we can find the energy eigenfunctions simply by solving the time-independent Schrodinger equation and multiplying the solutions by a simple sinusoidal factor related to the energy. It should therefore always be remembered that the solutions to the time-independent Schrodinger equation are simply the amplitudes of the solutions to the full time-dependent equation.
The bottom line is that we can use the time-dependent Schrodinger equation (or often the simpler time-independent version) to tell us what the wavefunctions of a quantum system are, entirely deterministically. That is, we do not have to resort to the language of probability. Once we try to apply this knowledge to the real world (i.e. to predict the outcome of measurements, etc) then we have to speak in terms of probabilities.
As a last point, it is important to realise that there is no real physical interpretation for the wavefunction. It simply contains information regarding the system to which it refers. However, one of the most important characteristics of a wavefunction is that the square of its magnitude is a measure of the probability of finding a particle described by the wavefunction at a given point in space. That is, in regions where the square of the magnitude of the wavefunction is large, the probability of finding the particle in that region is also large, and vice versa.
This is not intended to be an exhaustive description of what is a very subtle and complex subject, indeed it cannot be so, given my intention to avoid equations wherever possible. The interested reader is urged to consult one of the large number of textbooks on the subject, some of which are listed in the reading list on the contents page. We shall, however, expand greatly upon the basic framework of Quantum Mechanics in later chapters....

Wednesday, November 06, 2013

Global economic power shifting to Asia



Wolfensohn predicts shift in global economy


It's no secret that a massive shift in global economic power is under way from West to East but the question is whether the old developed economies are ready for the consequences of this change.

Former World Bank president, James Wolfensohn, thinks not. He also thinks the time is rapidly approaching where the World Bank's top job should cease to be the exclusive preserve of the United States.

Transcript

JIM MIDDLETON: Your old organisation the World Bank says that China's current economic model is unsustainable in the medium term. How serious a problem for the rest of the world would it be if China's leaders do not engage in the kind of top to bottom liberalisation of their economy envisaged by the World Bank?

JAMES WOLFENSOHN: Well I think what the World Bank is saying is that any period of 40 years growth, which they're projecting between now and 2050, will have some bumps. And I think they're saying that in terms of the remarkable growth that there's been in China in recent years there may be a slowing, there may be an adjustments in terms of housing, there may be an adjustment in terms of the amount of borrowings. 

But I don't think that the World Bank is predicting any great collapse in China. It is just that there will be perhaps a slowing for a few years but they certainly still believe that by 2050 China will be confident 25 per cent of the global economy.

JIM MIDDLETON: The World Bank is worried about certain factors, for instance the notion that China could grow old before it gets wealthy. The fact that in just five years time China's work force will have more retirees than entrants. These factors do point to the need for a pretty substantial structural renovation, even though China has been so successful over the past three decades.

JAMES WOLFENSOHN: I think that China has shown up to now that it can adjust. It's my belief that there are many people in China, particularly in the rural areas, who have come into more industrialised and city areas. The Chinese themselves are just bringing, I think, 350 million people into that particular group. And I think they're looking forward to the creation of a pretty substantial middle class, along with the middle class that will grow in India.

So what you're saying is absolutely correct. The population will age, but it's against a backdrop, of very substantial growth and there is also the possibility of an extension of the work life in China, which is, I think, something that I is likely to happen.

JIM MIDDLETON: The World Bank is arguing the need for liberalisation; that China needs to move to a market economy. Many Chinese, of course, argue that state capitalism has worked very well, especially given the record of free market capitalism in recent years. Why wouldn't state capitalism work for China into the future?

JAMES WOLFENSOHN: Well I think one of the reasons is that many Chinese, and if you go, as I am sure you do, to Shanghai, Beijing, even to many of the other cities in China, very large cities, you will find that the enterprise is occurring from the private sector. It is not occurring just from the government owned corporations.

It is always been true that the Chinese themselves as a people are quite entrepreneurial. They may still call it state capitalism for another 10 or 20 years but for anybody that show knows China they will, I think, comment on the fact that the individual is becoming a more important factor in the country.

JIM MIDDLETON: Broadening the discussion a little bit, you've noted that by mid -century fully 60 per cent of world GDP will come from Asia. What makes you say, though, that the old developed economies are not ready for this shift? 

JAMES WOLFENSOHN: Well, first all, the proposition is that we will do as was done in the early 1800s and before that in 1500, which is that the weight of the economies of the world will shift to Asia.

And I think there's very little doubt that we will have 50 to 60 per cent of the world's GDP in Asia. If that is true, then the rest of us in the more developed or the Western world will have 30 to 40 per cent, because that's the other part of it; along with whatever Africa has and some parts of Latin America. 

So what I think is happening is you're seeing a shift in terms of both population and a shift in terms of initiative and knowledge. The interesting thing to me is that the Chinese and the Indians are studying with huge numbers in the Western universities, in the United States and also, I've been interested to see, very much in Australian universities, so you're quite used to it.

The truth of the matter is that we in the West are doing very little about learning about the East, learning about what happens in China, learning about what is happening in India. And our young people are just not encouraged or maybe not themselves go to study in these part of the world. Certainly people of my age never thought of doing it. And I'm afraid in we're in a transitional period where parents of my age are a bit less - have not encouraged their children to go and do Asian studies. 

I have very little doubt that it will be a necessity over the next 10, 15 years. And it is my hope that Australia could be a leading country in terms of that transition because of its proximity to Asia and frankly the importance of Asia to Australia in term of the economics.

JIM MIDDLETON: Is one of the logical implications of that shift the global economic institutions, the IMF (International Monetary Fund), the World Bank, G20, also need to change to reflect that changing balance of economic power

JAMES WOLFENSOHN: I don't have the slightest doubt that they need to change. They were invented really after World War II. And there's no question that the balance of the shareholding and the traditions of that 50 plus years have certainly served us well. But the world was pretty much the same until the end of the last century, but starting in 2002 we've seen a significant move in terms of share of global income towards Asia.

The international institutions have not yet adjusted for that. And in another 10 years or 15 years or 20 years we will see a totally different ranking in terms of the economic power of both the world and the representation that you need in those international institutions. It certainly cannot, in the long term, be right that a French person should head the International Monetary Fund and an American should head the World Bank. I don't have the slightest doubt that in 10 years time that will be different.

JIM MIDDLETON: Is 10 years too late, though? Is this now a timely moment for leadership of the World Bank to go to a representative of one of the fast growing and increasingly large developing economies?

JAMES WOLFENSOHN: It only stands to reason that an institution which is concerned with development, and where development has taken place and where some of the developing countries have now reached sizeable positions. After all, China is now the second largest economy in the world to the United States ahead of everybody else.

So it wouldn't be surprising if at some moment a Chinese colleague would head the World Bank. It wouldn't be surprising if someone from Latin America or someone from India with global skills would head it. In my judgment, I think that that would be a healthy development. It's already happened in the management level.

And I think it would be - personally I think that at some point if not the next one it would be an important development to see happen.

JIM MIDDLETON: James Wofensohn it's been a pleasure talking to you.


Economic power shifting to Asia from the West?




Today, as much as China is the centre of global manufacturing, India has become the international hub for global service industries. India’s IT and outsourcing exports amount to over US$ 50 billion.

The economic resurgence of China and India has also made way for the emergence of Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan and Vietnam as manufacturing bases. This shift of world economic power back to Asia is highlighted in the ADB Key Indicators (for Asia and the Pacific) for 2010.
Today, the Asia Pacific accounts for 38% of the world economy. Europe comes second and North America third. Within Asia over 67% of the GDP comes from three countries – China, India and Japan. It is predicted that Asia will be the main driver of global growth over the next two decades with a newly-emerging Asian middle class of nearly 1.5 billion.

Since 1980, 400 million Chinese people have transcended poverty lines. By 2030 the Chinese middle class is expected to exceed 600 million. In numbers – this will be the largest middle class in the world; and the world’s third largest consumer market. India will be the fifth largest in the world with 520 million consumers. It is this demographic transformation of 1.5 billion Asian consumers, which will fuel global economic growth.

Inclusive growth

However, China and India to fuel global economic growth need to encourage inclusive growth and oppose all forms of trade protectionism. They need to improve the global monetary system and promote new modes of development.

One of the most significant changes today is the collective rise of emerging countries. The emerging countries have become an important force in global affairs. They are no longer in the backseat of global economic governance.


The emerging economies are now institutional players, rule makers and protectors of interests. Many global issues cannot be solved without the participation and support of emerging economies. Currently, China is the world’s second largest economy. Many predict that China’s GDP will soon surpass the US. An IMF report concluded, that calculated on PPP basis, China’s GDP will overtake that of the United States in 2016.

Some scholars predict that global power is ‘shifting’ from the West to the East. 

However, many analysts believe that there is no need for developed countries to lose sleep over this. Developed countries have for centuries accumulated incredible wealth and social and economic infrastructure, which still give them an advantage in capacity and influence over the East.
On the other hand, while the developing countries’ rapid economic growth has resulted in a more balanced distribution of global economic power, they don’t have much of a say still in global political and economic affairs.

Many emerging/developing countries are still far behind the developed countries in overall capacity, international outreach, institutional building and economic and social growth. Global issues are fundamentally about development. World peace and security cannot be built in the absence of stronger developing countries, smaller South-North gap, fewer living in abject poor and a better world order.

China’s challenges

China is today the largest developing/emerging country; it has had an extraordinary economic rise built foremost on the backs of low priced workers. China is seeing fast urbanisation and going through a rapid modernisation process. However, China’s growth is totally unbalanced. On per capita income they are 90+ in the world.

Based on United Nations standards, there are over 150 million Chinese people living in poverty. To become a true global player, China faces many challenges: In 2010, China’s economy grew by 10.3 percent to almost six trillion US dollars.

Yet, the foundation for development is weak. China has a huge population and frequent natural disasters. There is an increasing gap between the Eastern China and Western China, urban, rural regions and the rich and poor.

China also has an ageing population they need to take care of. China therefore would need to invest big to improve health care, education and housing. In addition the real wages in China have increases over 12% per year from 2000-2009 and this could result in some of the manufacturing jobs shifting to India, Cambodia and Vietnam.

China’s emergence

One of the most popular debates is the possibility that the United States will be joined or even surpassed as a superpower by China. What makes a superpower, and what would it take for China to match the United States? A genuine superpower does not merely have military and political influence, but also must be at the top of the economic, scientific, and cultural pyramids.

The most recent genuine superpower before the United States was the British Empire. Many Europeans like to point out that the EU has a larger economy than the US, but the EU is a collection of 27 countries that does not share a common leader, a common military, or a uniform foreign policy.

No doubt the only realistic candidate for joining the US in superpower status by 2030 is China. Unlike the US, China has a population of over four times the size of the United States, has the fastest growing economy of any large country, has the buying power and is also mastering sophisticated technologies. But to match the US economy by 2030, China would need an economy that matches the US economy in size.

If the US, with an economy of $14.7 trillion in nominal terms, grows only by 3% a year for the next 20 years, it will be $ 27 trillion in 2030. This is a modest assumption for the US.
China, with an economy of $5.88 trillion nominal terms (not in Purchasing Power Parity terms) grows at 8% a year for the next 20 years straight will be around $ 27 trillion in 2030.

China will have to sustain these growth levels for a long period of time (no country, let alone a large one, has grown at more than 8% over such a long period).

In other words, the progress that the US economy would make from 1945 to 2030 (85 years) would have to be achieved by China in just the 20 years from 2010 to 2030. Even then, this is just the total GDP, not per capita GDP, which would still be far to catch up because of China’s huge population, US currently $47,000 and China $4200.

Also, the weak dollar also leads some currency experts to believe/ that the US will lose economic dominance in the next few years. The US dollar comprises a dominant 60%-65% of global currency reserves, even greater share than it had 10 years ago, while the second highest share is that of the Euro (itself the combined currency of 21 separate countries) at just 25%.

So is there no currency that has any chance of overtaking the US, particularly a currency that is associated with a single sovereign nation? The Chinese Yuan represents fewer than 3% of world reserves, and China itself stockpiles US dollars and Euros. Clearly, US dominance in the global currency market is enormous, and very unlikely to lose that edge in the foreseeable future.

Furthermore, unlike the US brands Chinese brands have always been labelled as cheap and obscure quality, and suffer from weaker popularity compared with brands. But the Chinese market is consolidating quickly and has already nurtured some well-known brands in recent years. However, they need combine their image with US factors, to prove their brand competitiveness to domestic consumers and set up high-end brand images.

The US to retain its dominance will however have to manage the debt ceiling (foreign debt $ 13.5 trillion and domestic) and get their private sector that collectively owns over $ 2 trillion to stand up and lead the recovery without depending on fiscal stimulus from Obama.

(The writer is CEO, HR Cornucopia.)





Tuesday, September 24, 2013

ALLAHYARHAM HAJJAH NIK ZAWAHIR BINTI HAJI WAN OMAR (oleh NIK ZAFRI)


AL-FATIHAH




Ahli veteran Pertubuhan Kebangsaan Melayu Bersatu UMNO yang aktif sejak hampir 45 tahun yang lalu. Dilahirkan pada tahun 1938 dan telah bergiat dalam arena politik mulai tahun 1954 (semasa Perikatan ditubuhkan) sehingga akhir hayat Allahyarhamah. Mendapat didikan di Sekolah Melayu Ugama Bachok. Berkahwin pada 24 April, 1951.
 
Pengalaman Bersama UMNO (1954 sehingga ke akhir hayat)

·        AJK Kaum Ibu UMNO Kuala Krai, Kelantan
·        AJK Persatuan Perkumpulan Perempuan-Perempuan Malaya (W.I.) Kuala Krai, Kelantan
·        Ketua Kaum Ibu UMNO Cawangan Bandar Bachok, Kelantan
·        AJK UMNO Bahagian Bachok, Kelantan
·        Setiausaha Kaum Ibu UMNO Bahagian Bachok, Kelantan
·        Ketua Kaum Ibu Bahagian Bachok, Kelantan
·        AJK Kaum Ibu UMNO Negeri Kelantan
·        SU (W.I.) Jajahan Bachok, Kelantan
·        AJK PIBG Sekolah Inggeris Bachok, Kelantan
·        Ahli Dilantik Majlis Mesyuarat Bandaran Bachok, Kelantan mewakili Kawasan Pantai Irama
·        Penasihat Hakim Mahkamah Rendah, Bachok, Kelantan
·        Bendahari Perayaan Menyambut Malaysia Pertama – 16, 17 & 18 September, 1963 Jajahan Bachok, Kelantan
·        Pemidato Politik Peringkat Kebangsaan Barisan Nasional (PERIKATAN)
·        SU Bendahari Kaum Ibu UMNO Cawangan Bandar Machang, Kelantan
·        SU Bendahari Kaum Ibu UMNO Bahagian Machang, Kelantan
·        AJK UMNO Bahagian Machang, Kelantan
·        AJK PIBG Sekolah Ren. dan Men. Hamzah Machang
·        AJK Biro Buruh Pergerakan Wanita UMNO Malaysia
·        Pengerusi Biro Buruh Pergerakan Wanita UMNO Negeri Kelantan
·        Penyelia Gerakan KEMAS Pergerakan Wanita UMNO Malaysia (Inspektor Politik)
o   Ditugaskan untuk memberikan kursus politik ke hampir seluruh Bahagian-bahagian di seluruh Kelantan dan Malaysia setiap kali pilihanraya umum/kecil umpamanya Terengganu, Pahang, Perak, Kedah dan Kota Tinggi – Johor.
·        Dikurniakan Darjah Kebesaran Pingat Pangkuan Negara (P.P.N.) oleh Duli Yang Maha Mulia Seri Paduka Baginda Yang DiPertuan Agong Malaysia
·        Menerima surat kepujian daripada Pengerusi RIDA Malaysia (Kini MARA)
o   kerana telah merintis dan mengajar Kelas Jahitan, Masakan Selera Timur dan Barat, Kait Mengait dan Keriting Rambut di seluruh daerah dalam Jajahan Bachok dan Machang, Kelantan
·        Ditugaskan di Ekspo Pameran Produk Malaysia di Jeddah, Arab Saudi anjuran Duta Malaysia di Jeddah (Y. B. Dato’ Sri Haji Kamaruddin bin Mat Esa) selama sebulan.
·        AJK Musabaqah Tiwatul Qur’an Peringkat Negeri dan Kebangsaan
·        AJK PIBG Sek. Ren., Menengah dan Maktab Sultan Ismail, Kota Bharu, Kelantan
·        Dikurniakan Darjah Kebesaran Ahli Mangku Negara (A.M.N.) oleh Duli Yang Maha Mulia Seri Paduka Baginda Yang DiPertuan Agong Malaysia
·        SU Bendahari Syarikat Putri Wan Kembang milik Wanita UMNO Negeri Kelantan
·        Pengerusi Tetap UMNO Cawangan Maluri, Kuala Lumpur
·        Bertugas/Berkempen di Kubang Pasu, Kedah semasa Pilihanraya Umum 1978, dan di Pilihanraya Kawasan Padang Terap, Kedah – Januari, 1985.
·        Bertugas/Berkempen ke Puau Pinang dan Terengganu semasa Pilihanraya Umum 1986.
·        Bertugas/Berkempen semasa Pilihanraya Kecil Bukit Tuku, Pasir Mas, Kelantan – Jun, 1987
·        Bertugas/Berkempen di Kedah semasa Pilihanraya Umum 1990 di mana kubu kuat PAS Kota Setar telah berjaya ditumbangkan.
·        Timbalan Pengerusi Tetap UMNO Cawangan Kemudi, Bachok, Kelantan
·        Ketua Pergerakan Wanita UMNO Cawangan Kampung Kemudi, Bahagian Bachok, Kelantan

Allahyarhamah dikenali oleh semua Perdana Menteri Malaysia sehingga YAB Dato' Seri Haji Mohd Najib. Allahyarhamah juga sangat rapat dengan Tun Tan Sri Dr. Fatimah Hashim dan Tan Sri Datin Paduka Seri Dr. Aishah bte Ghani.

Pengalaman di bidang Perniagaan/Keusahawanan dari tahun 1971 sehingga ke akhir hayatnya

  • Kontraktor Wanita Pertama di Kelantan – Syarikat Wan Omar - Kelas 'B' bertaraf Bumiputera
  • Pernah membuka Kedai Emas Kak Nik Zawahir di Kota Bharu, Kelantan

Allahyarhamah telah menghembuskan nafas terakhirnya pada Hari Ahad, 14 Julai, 2002 di rumahnya sendiri Bachok, Kelantan - semasa sedang menunggu masuk waktu solat maghrib jam 7.20 ptg (AL-FATIHAH)

 
PESANAN KERAMAT

"Tidak ada apa yang Ummi inginkan walau pangkat/pingat kebesaran kecuali melihat agama, bangsa, keluarga Ummi dan tanahair Ummi terbela.  

Ummi juga memerlukan orang mengenang jasabaik yang pernah Ummi taburkan suatu masa dahulu tanpa perlu membalasnya kerana Allah SWT  sahajalah yang akan menilainya nanti)"  

Allahyarhamah Nik Zawahir 













Allahyarhamah bonda saya pernah bercerita mengenai bagaimana dia dinamakan 'Nik Zawahir'.
Dinamakan oleh ayahnya Haji Wan (Nik) Omar dan ibunya Hajjah Nik Zainab bersempena sebuah kitab
karya ulama terkemuka Syeikh Daud Fathani* - Warduz Zawahir li Hilli Alfazhi Iqdatil Jawahir
*Nik Zawahir merupakan keturunan ketujuh dari Syeikh Daud Fathani menerusi ibunya Hajjah Nik Zainab”