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NIK ZAFRI BIN ABDUL MAJID,
CONSULTANT/TRAINER
Email: nikzafri@yahoo.com, nikzafri@gmail.com
https://nikzafri.wixsite.com/nikzafri

Kelantanese, Alumni of Sultan Ismail College Kelantan (SICA), IT Competency Cert, Certified Written English Professional US. Has participated in many seminars/conferences (local/ international) in the capacity of trainer/lecturer and participant.

Affiliations :- Network Member of Gerson Lehrman Group, Institute of Quality Malaysia, Auditor ISO 9000 IRCAUK, Auditor OHSMS (SIRIM and STS) /EMS ISO 14000 and Construction Quality Assessment System CONQUAS, CIDB (Now BCA) Singapore),

* Possesses almost 30 years of experience/hands-on in the multi-modern management & technical disciplines (systems & methodologies) such as Knowledge Management (Hi-Impact Management/ICT Solutions), Quality (TQM/ISO), Safety Health Environment, Civil & Building (Construction), Manufacturing, Motivation & Team Building, HR, Marketing/Branding, Business Process Reengineering, Economy/Stock Market, Contracts/Project Management, Finance & Banking, etc. He was employed to international bluechips involving in national/international megaprojects such as Balfour Beatty Construction/Knight Piesold & Partners UK, MMI Insurance Group Australia, Hazama Corporation (Hazamagumi) Japan (with Mitsubishi Corporation, JA Jones US, MMCE and Ho-Hup) and Sunway Construction Berhad (The Sunway Group of Companies). Among major projects undertaken : Pergau Hydro Electric Project, KLCC Petronas Twin Towers, LRT Tunnelling, KLIA, Petronas Refineries Melaka, Putrajaya Government Complex, Sistem Lingkaran Lebuhraya Kajang (SILK), Mex Highway, KLIA1, KLIA2 etc. Once serviced SMPD Management Consultants as Associate Consultant cum Lecturer for Diploma in Management, Institute of Supervisory Management UK/SMPD JV. Currently – Associate/Visiting Consultants/Facilitators, Advisors for leading consulting firms (local and international) including project management. To name a few – Noma SWO Consult, Amiosh Resources, Timur West Consultant Sdn. Bhd., TIJ Consultants Group (Malaysia and Singapore) and many others.

* Ex-Resident Weekly Columnist of Utusan Malaysia (1995-1998) and have produced more than 100 articles related to ISO-9000– Management System and Documentation Models, TQM Strategic Management, Occupational Safety and Health (now OHSAS 18000) and Environmental Management Systems ISO 14000. His write-ups/experience has assisted many students/researchers alike in module developments based on competency or academics and completion of many theses. Once commended by the then Chief Secretary to the Government of Malaysia for his diligence in promoting and training the civil services (government sector) based on “Total Quality Management and Quality Management System ISO-9000 in Malaysian Civil Service – Paradigm Shift Scalar for Assessment System”

Among Nik Zafri’s clients : Adabi Consumer Industries Sdn. Bhd, (MRP II, Accounts/Credit Control) The HQ of Royal Customs and Excise Malaysia (ISO 9000), Veterinary Services Dept. Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), The Institution of Engineers Malaysia (Aspects of Project Management – KLCC construction), Corporate HQ of RHB (Peter Drucker's MBO/KRA), NEC Semiconductor - Klang Selangor (Productivity Management), Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia (ISO 9000), State Secretarial Office Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), Hidrological Department KL (ISO 9000), Asahi Kluang Johor(System Audit, Management/Supervisory Development), Tunku Mahmood (2) Primary School Kluang Johor (ISO 9000), Consortium PANZANA (HSSE 3rd Party Audit), Lecturer for Information Technology Training Centre (ITTC) – Authorised Training Center (ATC) – University of Technology Malaysia (UTM) Kluang Branch Johor, Kluang General Hospital Johor (Management/Supervision Development, Office Technology/Administration, ISO 9000 & Construction Management), Kahang Timur Secondary School Johor (ISO 9000), Sultan Abdul Jalil Secondary School Kluang Johor (Islamic Motivation and Team Building), Guocera Tiles Industries Kluang Johor (EMS ISO 14000), MNE Construction (M) Sdn. Bhd. Kota Tinggi Johor (ISO 9000 – Construction), UITM Shah Alam Selangor (Knowledge Management/Knowledge Based Economy /TQM), Telesystem Electronics/Digico Cable(ODM/OEM for Astro – ISO 9000), Sungai Long Industries Sdn. Bhd. (Bina Puri Group) - ISO 9000 Construction), Secura Security Printing Sdn. Bhd,(ISO 9000 – Security Printing) ROTOL AMS Bumi Sdn. Bhd & ROTOL Architectural Services Sdn. Bhd. (ROTOL Group) – ISO 9000 –Architecture, Bond M & E (KL) Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9000 – Construction/M & E), Skyline Telco (M) Sdn. Bhd. (Knowledge Management),Technochase Sdn. Bhd JB (ISO 9000 – Construction), Institut Kefahaman Islam Malaysia (IKIM – ISO 9000 & Internal Audit Refresher), Shinryo/Steamline Consortium (Petronas/OGP Power Co-Generation Plant Melaka – Construction Management and Safety, Health, Environment), Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Negotiation Skills), Association for Retired Intelligence Operatives of Malaysia (Cyber Security – Arpa/NSFUsenet, Cobit, Till, ISO/IEC ISMS 27000 for Law/Enforcement/Military), T.Yamaichi Corp. (M) Sdn. Bhd. (EMS ISO 14000) LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd., (Lean Scoreboard (including a full development of System-Software-Application - MSC Malaysia & Six Sigma) PJZ Marine Services Sdn. Bhd., (Safety Management Systems and Internal Audit based on International Marine Organization Standards) UNITAR/UNTEC (Degree in Accountacy – Career Path/Roadmap) Cobrain Holdings Sdn. Bhd.(Managing Construction Safety & Health), Speaker for International Finance & Management Strategy (Closed Conference), Pembinaan Jaya Zira Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9001:2008-Internal Audit for Construction Industry & Overview of version 2015), Straits Consulting Engineers Sdn. Bhd. (Full Integrated Management System – ISO 9000, OHSAS 18000 (ISO 45000) and EMS ISO 14000 for Civil/Structural/Geotechnical Consulting), Malaysia Management & Science University (MSU – (Managing Business in an Organization), Innoseven Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 MSPR8 – Awareness and Internal Audit (Construction), ISO 9001:2008 and 2015 overview for the Construction Industry), Kemakmuran Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 - Signages/Wayfinding - Project Quality Plan and Construction Method Statement ), Lembaga Tabung Haji - Flood ERP, WNA Consultants - DID/JPS -Flood Risk Assessment and Management Plan - Prelim, Conceptual Design, Interim and Final Report etc., Tunnel Fire Safety - Fire Risk Assessment Report - Design Fire Scenario), Safety, Health and Environmental Management Plans leading construction/property companies/corporations in Malaysia, Timur West Consultant : Business Methodology and System, Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) ISO/IEC 27001:2013 for Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya ISMS/Audit/Risk/ITP Technical Team, MPDT Capital Berhad - ISO 9001: 2015 - Consultancy, Construction, Project Rehabilitation, Desalination (first one in Malaysia to receive certification on trades such as Reverse Osmosis Seawater Desalination and Project Recovery/Rehabilitation)

* Has appeared for 10 consecutive series in “Good Morning Malaysia RTM TV1’ Corporate Talk Segment discussing on ISO 9000/14000 in various industries. For ICT, his inputs garnered from his expertise have successfully led to development of work-process e-enabling systems in the environments of intranet, portal and interactive web design especially for the construction and manufacturing. Some of the end products have won various competitions of innovativeness, quality, continual-improvements and construction industry award at national level. He has also in advisory capacity – involved in development and moderation of websites, portals and e-profiles for mainly corporate and private sectors, public figures etc. He is also one of the recipients for MOSTE Innovation for RFID use in Electronic Toll Collection in Malaysia.

Note :


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ON THE"LABEL" SECTION BELOW (RIGHT SIDE COLUMN), YOU CAN CLICK ON ANY TAG - TO READ ALL ARTICLES ACCORDING TO ITS CATEGORY (E.G. LABEL : CONSTRUCTION) OR GO TO THE VERY END OF THIS BLOG AND CLICK "Older Posts"


 

Saturday, June 30, 2018

DENGAR SUARA ANAK-ANAK MUDA - Nik Zafri

Saya melihat golongan muda-mudi dalam semua parti siasah tidak kira samada kerajaan atau pembangkang malah mana-mana bangsa/agama sekalipun - amat hebat-hebat belaka. Saya sudah agak lama menyelidik menerusi pembacaan dan video mereka (tanpa cenderung kepada aliran politik) dengan penuh minat - memang terserlah kewibawaan masing-masing. Mereka telah bersedia dengan segala hujjah dan fakta yang lengkap, saya simpulkan apa yang golongan muda-mudi selalu sebutkan kepada 8 teras utama) : (1) Kemajuan Rohani/Akhlak yang selaras dengan kemajuan fizikal/jasmani, (2) Kualiti Pendidikan, Konsep Kekompetanan, dan Karier di masa Hadapan, (3) Kepentingan beretika, (4) Demokrasi, Kebebasan Bersuara dan Hak, (5) Perjuangan masa hadapan, (6) Cabaran yang perlu dilalui dan penyelesaiannya, (7) Golongan veteran dan berpengalaman perlu dirujuk untuk panduan, (8) Anjakan Paradigma dan Perubahan - terutamanya STRUKTUR, SIKAP dan PENDEKATAN Malangnya, golongan veteran seperti tidak memperdulikan suara orang muda walaupun mereka sering memberikan kenyataan yang pada saya "cliche" dan "retorikal" (dalam pengurusan, saya panggil "lip service") bahawa: "golongan muda adalah pelapis" atau "pengganti". Golongan muda terbukti masih menghormati golongan veteran dan berpengalaman tetapi nampaknya sokongan golongan veteran seperti 'acuh tidak acuh' terhadap golongan muda. Rasa saya, tidak perlulah kita mencampuri "trend" dan "halatuju" golongan muda, jadilah pemerhati dan pemberi panduan/nasihat. Kita berada pada era yang berbeza dengan era anak-anak muda sekarang ini. Berilah mereka laluan jika kita mahukan perubahan. (jenguk-jenguklah nilai positif kat luar negara tu termasuk negara-negara di Benua Asia - Jepun, Korea, Australia, Singapura dsb.termasuk beberapa negara di Eropah (Jerman, UK, Peranchis dsb) lihat macamana mereka melayan dan memotivasikan anak-anak muda..samada di sektor kerajaan mahupun swasta, kepimpinan NGO dsb, jangan duduk bawah tempurung)

Monday, June 11, 2018

SIMPLE THINGS FIRST - BUDGET AND SPENDING CUTS HERE AND THERE. REDUCE BORROWING! - Nik Zafri

Just a thought. (It's been quite sometime since I've written anything about Knowledge Based Economy - Mind you, I am NEITHER a qualified economist or forecaster, I would rather say that I am the DIY type of economist, the street smart style - so don’t take my views oo seriously especially when making formal economic decision..it’s just my personal views.)

I think the new Government efforts to improve Malaysia's economy would eventually result in a boost!! (Reduce corruption, declaration of wealth by high officials, reduce dependence on foreign workers, eliminate GST etc)

To start with, there have been efforts to improve market self-regulation, efficiency and innovation rather than worrying about inflation and asset bubbles (like what typical bankers would do) Supply and demand equilibrium (Keynes) should already become HISTORY. Capital markets will not work properly if financial element are not being looked at. We are also forgetting how Corporate Governance principles being discarded and the disasters that came afterwards were unimaginable (Enron)

But the ones that is really suffering is the common PEOPLE like me...

Apart from depending too much on FDI and trade volumes, efforts to focus on Malaysia’s domestic economy as a priority is not being neglected.

I remember reading some case studies involving Denmark and Ireland where both countries succeeded in reducing country's deficits; ironically according to Keynes probably this will cause recession; but to everyone's surprise, the economies of both countries got out of the recession very quickly. Malaysia can too and we are doing it by cutting the spending and other kinds of "cuts here and there".

But please, let the interest rates stay for now, do not lower or increase them FOR ANY REASON (unless our currency rates and exchange are stable and under control) - yeap, we might lose something along the way, but think of the long term positive impact. (just like the Tun M's legendary pegging of Ringgit against USD in the past). And Feds : no more "scaring forecast" about "hike in interest rates" - it will cause panic in the global stock market!

One of the reasons of Denmark and Ireland's success; I think; is the rejection; to the idea of borrowing to improve purchasing power of the people - well guess what? Many people save rather than spending!! Surprisingly, the cancellation of GST might improve the purchasing power..hence improve customer confidence..hence improve stock/share market!

So, the lesson that I’ve learnt is that the most difficult model is trying to "assume the economics of human behaviour" (Well, you can't!)

I also share the idea of "making more debts" are NOT working anymore, since it has been proven that "borrowing" HAD directly affecting the economy especially in the past : when politics are mixed with economical decisions and policies.

So, I think the "monetary funds entity" should be making some changes on their economic and financial perspectives - no more "Free Trade" and how this will so-called affect employment opportunity, capital and labour.

So, between less borrowing VS budget cuts...I go for budget cuts.

Many people still like to think “in the box” despite claims that “they are thinking out of the box” hahaha. Example that if A is done, B will follow and the "soothsayer shamans" will start forecasting that a certain country's economy will fall. There was not even sufficient space provided for the economy to prove itself first in a certain period of time (self-regulation)

Funny, recession forecasts many times have been proven WRONG. Take Brexit for example - many believes that the UK economy will be "very bad"...but UK’s economy has improved! So will countries leaving EU, it may have a short term impact but in the long run, look at "exiting" countries now? (Did it work?...YES)

Trust me, I "predict" some smart alecs will start forecasting negatively on the TPP issue if Malaysia decided to pull out. (kudos to US to take such action) So, if Brexit works good on UK’s current economy, TPP also works for the US, so Malaysia will also benefit as well if a pull-out from TPP is to happen.

Forecasters sometimes (not all) tend to safeguard their professionalism and the forecast must be made in line with politics - so, the results are : economic chaos. (well, forecasters are not always right! They are just doing their job by painting rosy pictures) Models; they used; NEVER predicted economical crisis or recession or depression. That's where problem will start. Need I say more?

Experiencing and learning from the bad past to create an economic model of reference can be good but by frequently using the past as “a gospel” it will definitely put the economy in a causality loop - "repeating the same mistake" over and over again.

One Cambridge study says the loss peaks at 3% of GDP early in the 2020s. The loss of GDP per head is smaller – never much more than 1% – and soon recovers (The Guardian) I think this is a brave economic model. Remember, GDP is NOT the only indicator of economics. We need more Cambridge-Oriented type of innovations.

I am looking into Austria, they seemed to do things their own way and it is working.

HAIL TO THE POWER OF KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY

Wednesday, June 06, 2018

PASARAN MERUDUM - APA YANG PERLU DILAKUKAN - Nik Zafri

Penafian : Diminta tidak menggunakan sebarang hasil tulisan saya termasuk yang berikut sebagai satu keputusan untuk melabur. Ianya sekadar panduan. Dapatkan nasihat dari pakar.

Kita melihat pasaran saham menjunam selepas PRU 14. Di sinilah ujian kepada pelabur terutamanya reaksi emosi terhadap pasaran.

Saya bukannya pelabur yang hebat tetapi berdasarkan pengalaman, suka saya menegur sikap tipikal para pelabur Malaysia :

Saya lihat pelabur suka menandaras saham pegangan mereka kepada harga belian dan harga jualan. Pada saya, sepatutnya apabila berlaku kejatuhan, kita perlu melihat banyak aspek, bukan terus melakukan jualan besar-besaran dan menanti pasaran pulih kembali.

Antara aspek yang perlu kita perhatikan ialah siapa "loosers" dan industri manakah yang sebenarnya mengalami penyusutan... Jika pelabur membeli saham yang tidak berkaitan dengan syarikat yang jatuh harga sahamnya, kekalkan dahulu pegangan, jangan jual walaupun kita lihat harga saham yang kita beli itu juga mengalami sedikit penurunan (kerana penurunan ini sebenarnya bersabit dengan "psikologi" pasaran bukan menandakan ekonomi akan hancur)

Lihat dahulu pengumuman syarikat yang pelabur beli sahamnya itu, dapatkan maklumat/risikan dari sumber yang betul, atau tidak salah jika kita melawat syarikat berkenaan untuk mendapat penjelasan dan nasihat.

Apa yang perlu dilihat ialah : adakah :

a) pendapatan mereka menyusut atau masih berjalan seperti biasa,

b) adakah terdapat sebarang tanda negatif dalam penyata imbangan mereka - rujuk nota pada akaun mereka atau

c) ianya adalah isu urustadbir korporat yang tidak telus

Jangan terpengaruh dengan khabar angin walaupun disokong dengan fakta/hujjah yang tidak jelas. Pelabur sendiri perlu membuat analisa ke atas data berkenaan sebelum membuat keputusan. Kadangkala ada segelintir broker pandai memberikan alasan, kononnya, harga saham "x" akan jatuh, lalu pelabur pun mudah percaya dan mengikut pendapat (yang sebenarnya) spekulasi untuk mempengaruhi psikologi pelabur dan menguntungkan “si spekulator"

Jika pelabur panik, mungkin pelabur akan mengambil tindakan kurang rasional seperti membeli kuantiti saham pada kaunter lain dalam jumlah yang lebih banyak untuk menutup kerugian kita.

Saya pernah menyatakan bahawa : Pasaran Saham adalah ibarat perniagaan – begitu juga dengan FOREX, ianya mempunyai potensi keuntungan atau risiko kerugian. Jika pelabur hanya inginkan keuntungan semata-mata dan tidak dapat menerima kerugian, maka pelaburan kita sudah menjadi satu PERJUDIAN.

Malaysia masih memiliki pelbagai "kusyen" (minyak dan komoditi dll) apabila pasaran saham mahupun kewangan menampakkan kejatuhan kerana Malaysia mempunyai pengalaman yang luas dalam mengendalikan masalah ekonomi. Malah dengan menghapuskan GST dan tidak terus mempraktikkan SST dalam tempoh yang agak lama akan meninggikan kuasa belian (ianya untuk kita rakyat sebenarnya)

Ada pelabur beranggapan bahawa mereka perlu membeli saham yang diniagakan dengan rendah minggu ke 52 - dakwa mereka ianya adalah satu pelaburan yang baik. Pelabur tidak sedar kadangkala ini hanyalah perangkap nilai (value trap) yang diletakkan dalam "laporan spekulator" yang dihias dengan “data-data yang cantik tetapi amat berbisa”. Ingatlah Pelabur tidak tahu dan tidak mungkin dapat meramalkan dengan tepat betapa eratiknya pasaran ini.

Apabila pelabur membeli tanpa berfikir kerana mengharapkan saham berkenaan akan melambung naik di suatu masa, sebenarnya pelabur telah melakukan silap besar. Memang tidak dinafikan, trend ada menunjukkan apabila pelabur menggunakan kaedah ini, maka ada kemungkinan harga itu akan melambung. Tetapi pada saya, pelabur perlu memeriksa "feasibility" dan "viability" (kebolehupayaan, kebolehlaksanaan) prestasi atau projek syarikat yang pelabur beli sahamnya itu dan bukan mendengar khabar atau sekadar berasa puas hati dengan “order book value”

Ada juga spekulator yang bersembunyi di sebalik "brokerage" yang menyarankan agar kita membuat pertaruhan "leverage". Sememangnya melabur secara marginal dan "leverage" berpotensi untuk memberikan pulangan yang tinggi tetapi ianya juga mempunyai risiko kerugian yang amat besar.

Jika kita tidak pasti dalam suasana ketidaktentuan pasaran, elakkan membuat pelaburan seperti ini. Mengambil "leverage" memerlukan pelaburan yang menguntungkan mengikut kadar faedah pembayaran di atas modal yang dipinjam. Ya, mungkin juga ketidaktentuan dalam pasaran dalam tempoh jangkapendek, cara ini boleh berjaya tetapi pelabur mungkin tidak dapat mengawal perasaan apabila pasaran merudum.

Saya berpendapat, jika membeli berdasarkan margin, ianya akan menghadkan opsyen dan kita mungkin terpaksa menutup posisi kita.

Saya lihat, rata-rata pelabur bijak dalam membuat perancangan kewangan namun kurang pula bijak dalam mengawal perasaan. Ini bererti perancangan kewangan yang diperbuat itu tidak ada "Plan B" iaitu jika berlaku kejatuhan harga, apa yang perlu dilakukan. Sikap ini akan menyebabkan kegagalan dalam mewujudkan koreksi pasaran dalam tempoh jangkapanjang.

Satu lagi kesalahan bagi pelabur kecil ialah mereka menghentikan Pelan Pelaburan Bersistem dalam Dana Ekuiti apabila pasaran merudum. Ini menunjukkan sikap tidak sabar pelabur. Sebenarnya pelaburan dana ekuiti yang bersistem adalah bertujuan melatih disiplin semasa fasa "bearish" dan ianya lebih berbentuk jangkapanjang. Jika kita membatalkan pelaburan di tengah-tengah perjalanan, maka sebenarnya kitalah yang rugi.

Perancangan/pengurusan masa amat mustahak dalam kita melabur dalam dana ekuiti. Ini kerana kita perlu bersabar dalam melihat pada terma-terma perjanjian yang kita tandatangani dan sentiasa bertanya sebelum menandatangani sesuatu perjanjian. Apa yang penting kita lihat antara lain sekurang-kurangnya ialah kemungkinan naik turunnya kadar faedah (serta apakah jaminan syarikat pelaburan berkenaan jika ini berlaku) dan juga tempoh perjanjian (kerana kita dapat menjangka berapakah keuntungan yang kita telah buat dalam masa suku, tengah dan hujung tahun (dikalikan pula dengan tempoh perjanjian)

Kita juga perlu pandai meramal suasana ekonomi dan sistem perbankan dan kewangan tempatan dengan mengambilkira perjalanan/perkembangan ekonomi di seluruh dunia.

Nota/Hint/Isyarat : Pasaran sedang mengalami pembetulan (correction) dari bearish ke bullish. Mudah-mudahan, sejurus sebelum Hari Raya Aidilfitri 2018 dan 2 minggu selepas Hari Raya Aidilfitri, saya menjangka pasaran akan pulih kembali (tanda-tandanya telah ada saya perhatikan)

FDI baru, penyenaraian baru dan potensi pelaburan baru bernilai berbillion ringgit sedang menanti dari dalam dan luar negara. Janganlah dirisaukan sangat.

Jika tidak pasti dengan apa yang saya perkatakan ini, maka tumpukan sahaja masa dan pelaburan kita kepada pelbagai Amanah Saham yang dijamin kerajaan atau Dana Bersama (Mutual Fund) - malah insuran sekalipun - atau menyertai pelaburan dalam bentuk Simpanan Tetap (FD) - ini semua lebih selamat.