Nik Zafri says :

I like the following article...very honest and very transparent analysis...

Although the article may be the thing of the past (so it seems) but I wish all bankers, investors, newly listed companies, speculators and analysts, economists etc. etc. to read the following article...

Be alert for some strong words but back up with solid facts.

We may take certain reminders so that we shouldn't be over excited of the current market performance but in fact, start working harder to continually improve them (stop sitting in the comfortable zone (not yet)

Also my reminder to all, stop playing the old record by saying that the high quantity of listing/IPOs indicates that the economy is going to be fine...it's the quality that we're talking here NOT quantity.

I think 'designation' of certain stocks by authorities should come in handy - perhaps the right time....but designating stocks should be packaged with clear regulations

Recession-struck Asia to face IPO shortage in 2009

Depressed equity prices, a spreading global recession and increasing risk-aversion among investors are likely to kill the motivation for Asia Pacific companies to be audacious enough to launch IPOs in 2009. The IPO pipeline, which had dried towards the end of 2008, will probably completely shut in the first half of 2009 and the most optimistic are now only hoping that stability will return to stock prices and that a few listings will follow in the second half of the year.

There have been several jumbo IPOs in the Asia Pacific over the past few years through to the first half of 2008. The drivers of this supply were Indian and Chinese companies taking advantage of continued economic growth and investor enthusiasm for exposure in the rising fortunes of the developing world.

This gung-ho mentality was sadly short-lived as these companies’ post-listing performances were disastrous, inflation touched new highs with the advent of recession and the financial sector collapsed under the weight of sub-prime problems.

The pain was particularly felt in the second half of 2008 and IPOs were postponed or completely culled as stock prices and indices plummeted and the probability of raising new money through issuing shares at reasonable valuations completely bit the dust.

A continuation of this surrender to the gloom in global markets is likely to ensure that companies keen on deleveraging will focus on raising equity via secondary placements or private stake sales rather than venture out with IPOs, said bankers.

The outlook for IPOs at least for the first half of 2009 is bleak,” said Simon Cox, head of syndicate at UBS Australia. “Most investors who have cash see enough opportunities in secondary markets every day and are not willing to be tempted to take risk in unknown companies by participating in an IPO unless they are priced very attractively. As a result, companies hardly have any motive to sell into this kind of environment which will kill supply in 2009.”

Signs of a prolonged slowdown in IPO activity are already evident. The Chinese IPO market, the region’s busiest for several years, had a slow start in 2009. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has still kept the domestic A-share market shut and only two tiny companies have listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange – the HK$250m (US$32.2m) IPO of mainland oil, petroleum and petrochemical trader Strong Petrochemical and the HK$63m float of China Singyes Solar Technologies.

There is one deal, though, that holds the hopes of all the companies looking to raise new equity. Chinese gold miner Real Gold Mining is braving the market with a US$150m deal and, though the defensive nature of gold could spur some demand, not many are willing to bet on the deal’s success.

Even if it is a success, bankers expect the Chinese IPO market to remain quiet in the first half and to show signs of recovery at best in the second half because of uncertainty about the direction of the global economy. “By that time (mid-year), people should be able to get a more solid view on the global economy and the mere hope of recovery could push up the stock markets and invigorate the IPO market,” said a banker.

When that happens, the infrastructure sector and companies in the retail business segment could be favoured as likely anti-recessionary candidates. “Investors remain picky and they would be only willing to put their money in India or China’s infrastructure and retail which are still considered growth sectors given possibilities demands of their huge populations will continue,” said another banker.

The Chinese government is set to invest Rmb4trn (US$584.4bn) in the country’s infrastructure sector in the next few years and is determined to maintain an 8% GDP growth by supporting domestic demand. India has similar plans to augment its infrastructure and support GDP growth.

The deals that may hit the market, however, would be modestly sized and the super jumbos are likely to be few and far between.

The only known candidate for a jumbo IPO is Agricultural Bank of China, which has plans for a US$20bn–$30bn A/H IPO in 2010. In October last year, Agricultural Bank of China received a US$19bn cash injection from the Chinese government to remove bad debts from its balance sheet and strengthen its capital base before going public. The bank transformed itself into a shareholding company in mid-January and is said to be looking at a Hong Kong and Shanghai IPO.

The Indian market is expected to remain somnolent during the first half as India gears up for its 2009 general elections. The elections are expected in May 2009. Prior to that, the Indian government is unlikely to push forward with any of its privatisations.

What little activity there is now is focused on CB buybacks with Reliance Communications and Jubilant Organosys among those quietly buying back CBs.

“In the Indian context, the market is bound to be turbulent pre-elections. It’s going to be difficult to do any deals. Post elections around June or July, hopefully, the markets will stabilise a bit and we could start seeing companies desperate to raise cash tapping the market in the fourth quarter,” said one Indian ECM banker.

And that is likely to be the trend in the rest of the region. Within South-East Asia, ECM activity will be driven primarily by recapitalisations, particularly within the FIG and real estate sectors, largely through rights issues. South-East Asian issuers tend to be family or major shareholder dominated, and rights issues backed by promoters will continue to be the prevailing trend.

“We are waiting for more rights issues out of Singapore. People are looking at issuers like CapitaLand, CapitaCommercial Trust and CapitaMall Trust to tap the market and we expect more fundraising within the REIT space. Our visibility for IPOs in SEA is minimal, so I definitely think it will be secondary fund raising and recapitalisations,” said another banker.

Although the past few months have been desolate for ECM bankers, there could be a pick-up in equity issuance towards the second half of 2009 as issuers find themselves faced with no funding alternatives.

“The IPO market is dead…The rescue rights or rescue placements in Europe will probably follow through to Asia, but Asian issuers have to swallow their pride first and take the decision to issue equity. If debt markets remain closed, they will have no choice, at some point the penny will drop,” said one Hong Kong-based Southeast Asian banker.

In Korea, the healthy IPO pipeline has imploded with first life insurers and then construction firms falling off the map. A market plunge, where the Kospi drifted below 1,000 for the first time in three years, and a subsequent liquidity squeeze has set a bleak tone for 2009 and bankers are struggling to find candidates to come to the market.

If markets were to improve, bankers think it will be the life insurers that will return first with Tongyang Life Insurance regarded as the most likely candidate. Tongyang Life came close to listing last summer but was forced to pull the deal at the last moment and has since renewed its listing filing twice with the latest deadline extended to August.

Bankers are not confident that Tongyang Life can meet that timetable but they suggested that if the deal could get done this year then other life insurers like Kumho Life and Mirae Asset Life would follow.

Also on bankers’ radars are a string of deals from Hyundai-related companies with Hyundai Motor rumoured to be considering spinning off Hyundai Card and Hyundai Capital while Hyundai Group considers a listing of Hyundai Logistics and Hyundai Home Shopping.

Bankers said that although the Hyundai deals inflated their pipeline, the execution of such deals would depend on whether the Hyundai Group was willing to use its cash piles to support the businesses and avoid a listing.

“The problem with a lot of the listing candidates is that they are backed by Korea’s industry giants and conglomerates. There is no real urgency to get these firms to the market,” one banker noted.

That argument can probably be best applied to the listing plans of Korea’s construction firms, including Posco Engineering and Construction and Lotte Engineering and Construction and Hyundai Engineering and Construction, which were all expected to list in 2008/2009 but have recently reversed those plans. Bankers blamed the cancellation of their listing plans on a strategic decision to lean more heavily on their chaebol relationships than the public markets.

And in Australia it will be difficult to see any IPOs being done in 2009, especially after the few that got done in 2008 were disastrous for investors. BrisConnections which did a huge IPO in 2008 saw its partially paid A$1 shares falling to a record low of A$0.001 post-listing. IvanHoe Mines also did one that was the year’s second largest IPO but are trading way below their issue price.

Against that background, reviving investor confidence for IPOs will be difficult.

“There could be opportunities of IPOs by diversified companies demerging to realise value in specific units or even venture capital/private equity selling off stakes but those deals in this depressed environment will have to be priced relatively cheap. . .we are not recommending our clients to go ahead and do IPOs in this environment,” said one banker.

Shankar Ramakrishnan, Fiona Lau, Denise Wee, Govinda Finn

Recently, someone asked me about Low Cost Housing and 'how low cost' would it be in terms of construction - which triggers me - that I've not been writing anything on Civil Engineering for quite sometimes.

Here's an article (I do not know who is the original author) from Civil Engineering Portal India which I think would be something worth looking into (I love reading this article for it's directly related to what I've been mentioning all long (you may find quite a number of related articles in my blog) about quality costs in construction):

Low Cost Housing is a new concept which deals with effective budgeting and following of techniques which help in reducing the cost construction through the use of locally available materials along with improved skills and technology without sacrificing the strength, performance and life of the structure.There is huge misconception that low cost housing is suitable for only sub standard works and they are constructed by utilizing cheap building materials of low quality.The fact is that Low cost housing is done by proper management of resources.Economy is also achieved by postponing finishing works or implementing them in phases.

Building Cost

The building construction cost can be divided into two parts namely:

Building material cost : 65 to 70 %
Labour cost : 65 to 70 %

Now in low cost housing, building material cost is less because we make use of the locally available materials and also the labour cost can be reduced by properly making the time schedule of our work. Cost of reduction is achieved by selection of more efficient material or by an improved design.

Areas from where cost can be reduced are:-

1) Reduce plinth area by using thinner wall concept.Ex.15 cms thick solid concrete block wall.

2) Use locally available material in an innovative form like soil cement blocks in place of burnt brick.

3) Use energy efficiency materials which consumes less energy like concrete block in place of burnt brick.

4) Use environmentally friendly materials which are substitute for conventional building components like use R.C.C. Door and window frames in place of wooden frames.

5) Preplan every component of a house and rationalize the design procedure for reducing the size of the component in the building.

6) By planning each and every component of a house the wastage of materials due to demolition of the unplanned component of the house can be avoided.

7) Each component of the house shall be checked whether if it’s necessary, if it is not necessary, then that component should not be used.

Cost reduction through adhoc methods

Foundation

Normally the foundation cost comes to about 10 to 15% of the total building and usually foundation depth of 3 to 4 ft. is adopted for single or double store building and also the concrete bed of 6″(15 Cms.) is used for the foundation which could be avoided.

It is recommended to adopt a foundation depth of 2 ft.(0.6m) for normal soil like gravely soil, red soils etc., and use the uncoursed rubble masonry with the bond stones and good packing. Similarly the foundation width is rationalized to 2 ft.(0.6m).To avoid cracks formation in foundation the masonry shall be thoroughly packed with cement mortar of 1:8 boulders and bond stones at regular intervals.
It is further suggested adopt arch foundation in ordinary soil for effecting reduction in construction cost up to 40%.This kind of foundation will help in bridging the loose pockets of soil which occurs along the foundation.
In the case black cotton and other soft soils it is recommend to use under ream pile foundation which saves about 20 to 25% in cost over the conventional method of construction.

Plinth

It is suggested to adopt 1 ft. height above ground level for the plinth and may be constructed with a cement mortar of 1:6. The plinth slab of 4 to 6″ which is normally adopted can be avoided and in its place brick on edge can be used for reducing the cost. By adopting this procedure the cost of plinth foundation can be reduced by about 35 to 50%.It is necessary to take precaution of providing impervious blanket like concrete slabs or stone slabs all round the building for enabling to reduce erosion of soil and thereby avoiding exposure of foundation surface and crack formation.

Walling

Wall thickness of 6 to 9″ is recommended for adoption in the construction of walls all-round the building and 41/2 ” for inside walls. It is suggested to use burnt bricks which are immersed in water for 24 hours and then shall be used for the walls

Rat – trap bond wall

It is a cavity wall construction with added advantage of thermal comfort and reduction in the quantity of bricks required for masonry work. By adopting this method of bonding of brick masonry compared to traditional English or Flemish bond masonry, it is possible to reduce in the material cost of bricks by 25% and about 10to 15% in the masonry cost. By adopting rat-trap bond method one can create aesthetically pleasing wall surface and plastering can be avoided.

Concrete block walling

In view of high energy consumption by burnt brick it is suggested to use concrete block (block hollow and solid) which consumes about only 1/3 of the energy of the burnt bricks in its production. By using concrete block masonry the wall thickness can be reduced from 20 cms to 15 Cms. Concrete block masonry saves mortar consumption, speedy construction of wall resulting in higher output of labour, plastering can be avoided thereby an overall saving of 10 to 25% can be achieved.

Soil cement block technology

It is an alternative method of construction of walls using soil cement blocks in place of burnt bricks masonry. It is an energy efficient method of construction where soil mixed with 5% and above cement and pressed in hand operated machine and cured well and then used in the masonry. This masonry doesn’t require plastering on both sides of the wall. The overall economy that could be achieved with the soil cement technology is about 15 to 20% compared to conventional method of construction.

Doors and windows

It is suggested not to use wood for doors and windows and in its place concrete or steel section frames shall be used for achieving saving in cost up to 30 to 40%.Similiarly for shutters commercially available block boards, fibre or wooden practical boards etc., shall be used for reducing the cost by about 25%.By adopting brick jelly work and precast components effective ventilation could be provided to the building and also the construction cost could be saved up to 50% over the window components.

Lintals and Chajjas

The traditional R.C.C. lintels which are costly can be replaced by brick arches for small spans and save construction cost up to 30 to 40% over the traditional method of construction. By adopting arches of different shapes a good architectural pleasing appearance can be given to the external wall surfaces of the brick masonry.

Roofing

Normally 5″(12.5 cms) thick R.C.C. slabs is used for roofing of residential buildings. By adopting rationally designed insitu construction practices like filler slab and precast elements the construction cost of roofing can be reduced by about 20 to 25%.

Filler slabs

They are normal RCC slabs where bottom half (tension) concrete portions are replaced by filler materials such as bricks, tiles, cellular concrete blocks, etc.These filler materials are so placed as not to compromise structural strength, result in replacing unwanted and nonfunctional tension concrete, thus resulting in economy. These are safe, sound and provide aesthetically pleasing pattern ceilings and also need no plaster.

Jack arch roof/floor

They are easy to construct, save on cement and steel, are more appropriate in hot climates. These can be constructed using compressed earth blocks also as alternative to bricks for further economy.

Ferrocement channel/shell unit

Provide an economic solution to RCC slab by providing 30 to 40% cost reduction on floor/roof unit over RCC slabs without compromising the strength. These being precast, construction is speedy, economical due to avoidance of shuttering and facilitate quality control.

Finishing Work

The cost of finishing items like sanitary, electricity, painting etc., varies depending upon the type and quality of products used in the building and its cost reduction is left to the individual choice and liking.

Conclusion

The above list of suggestion for reducing construction cost is of general nature and it varies depending upon the nature of the building to be constructed, budget of the owner, geographical location where the house is to be constructed, availability of the building material, good construction management practices etc. However it is necessary that good planning and design methods shall be adopted by utilizing the services of an experienced engineer or an architect for supervising the work, thereby achieving overall cost effectiveness to the extent of 25% in actual practice.

RUMOURS VS FACTS, SPECULATION VS ANALYSIS

I've heard stories about most major banking and financial Institutions are having special meetings to revise and reformulate monetary policies.

I do agree with these actions as the stock market may rise again PROVIDED the best monetary policies are introduced into the marketplace.

One thing for certain, investors are digesting rumours rather than facts, speculation rather than analysis - people just don't have the patience to wait nowadays. Many have told me that this is going to be short term but that 'short term' are dominating the market with making strange shapes. One news from the US...say unemployment rate, then it would finally affect the whole world.

One thing for certain, there are still investors taking risks waiting for 'the right time to sell' - even minimum gains is good enough but many seem to find strength in weakness (opportunity to buy/profit taking) where efforts to strengthen of holdings in equities are seen. Despite its sluggish performance, surprisingly USD may get better - lowest interest rates offerings, plans of liquidity etc.

Well, as for me, besides than unit trust, I'm also looking into GLC's bonds at the moment. Will be back soon..

To recover or not to recover?

Analysts these days are expecting (or speculating) recessions whether we're in L, U, V, W shapes.

Not a very long time ago, we faced difficulties in the construction projects - both material and labour. Richness have favoured oil exporters after the price was USD147/barrel. Then, we see light at the end of the tunnel for India and especially China - attaining good results instead of recession (China - the next country that will save the world? - we'll see) Next, we also see good signs in Australia and Canada as well.

US have been good before the subprime mortgage crisis that affect the whole world - thanks to capitalism. Now, it appears that; apart from US; almost every country in the West is in dire economic straits and surprisingly affecting the birthrate as well. Healthcare now is becoming a trend just like bailouts and stimulus. National debt and deficit to rations of Gross Domestic Product are alarmingly high. Many are now debt-laden. These unstable conditions may have hard effects on USD.

How are we doing today? Mr. World Economics?
By Nik Zafri - Oct 7, 2009

Ok..to start with - Oil (Asia)...Source NYME - November benchmark crude up 63 cents - $71.51 by 12.30 pm and contract settled at $70.88 - a rise of 47 cents. For US (Dow Jones gaining 1.4%), it's the best achievement and a good sign for prospects of more corporate profits.

A sign of recovery? Perhaps - Oil markets & equities are being driven by this recovery.

There is another paradox though - if crude inventories fall, oil prices may rise further and price will fall if crude stocks rise. I hope if this happens, the strong financial market will back it up.

Global Economic Stimulus Package - I'm glad that our global economy now can withstand higher borrowing cost - despite there are talks about interest hike yet world Governments spending and offers of low interest rates are now emerging.

Next - Inflation vs interest rate hikes. Some countries in the Asia-Pacific Region expected a building trend of inflation (Australia recently raise their key interest rates (official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%) - which is OK to them) due to recent hike 'Downunder' - there is a possibility that 'everyone else' will follow this trend.

Thus, if there is a plan to raise interest...I can understand why (we must be fair to the Banking and Financial instititutions as well) but please monitor the inflation possibilty..if there is such sign (in Malaysia specifically), please control it.

Bonds - Reports came to me that in some countries - Traders are buying after the fall. Yields are retreating (on the benchmark one decade bond yield now closing lower - During the early deals, it's rising due to lacking of buyback news - something to look at before )

Before I move on : Anyone heard of the so called secret talks between the Gulf states? I heard stories about China and Russia are replacing oil trading with dollar which may have caused the decline is USD?

Next - USD vs Gold vs other currency - I think everyone is noticing that USD is falling against major currency. Thus gold are rallying on the bullion markets and silver surges higher. (Dollar is now the 'arc nemesis' to gold = Gold is used for safe hedge against inflation whenever the Dollar is down)

Taken from The Star - Business > News - Wednesday August 5, 2009
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I think readers should read this article. I kinda like what Mr. Kumar is writing - it makes so much sense by asking two questions (save or spend - both have pro/cons) - almost related to what I've said in one of my articles about the paradox of 'so many sellers but not so many buyers'...both have pro/cons such as the purchasing power. Good work Mr. Pankaj...you made both Kurnia and Malaysia proud!!

Some suggestions on everyone's dilemma - To save or to spend?
By (Mr.) Pankaj Kumar (Chief Investment Officer - Kurnia)

OUR parents do it, our grandparents and forefathers did it, our siblings do it, as do some of our friends and colleagues. All for the rainy days, so we were told. Yes, savings.

We have to save for our future to ensure that we have something to meet unexpected expenses that may occur in our lives or to make the down-payment for the dream home or car or to pay for our once-in-a-lifetime event, where we become king and queen for a day.

When we are in a family with children, we also save for their future education needs as well as preparing ourselves for retirement.

Some say we do too much of it while others say there’s no such thing as enough. Our parents told us that we have to start young and we should build it up over the years so that by the time we retire we have enough to enjoy and live until we are called by Him.

Some say we have to save 10% of our monthly income as a benchmark while others try for more if they can afford it while some find it tough just to make ends meet, simply because of the higher cost of living.

One thing without doubt is that we have this inherent habit of saving for the future and, to the extent, we save so much that we do not know what to do with it.

My argument is simple as if we look at the current banking system in the country and capturing data related to savings, fixed deposits and demand deposits, individual savings amount to about RM388bil against the total of RM695bil as at June 30, 2009, representing about 56% of the banking system.

If we were to measure the above data in terms of per capita deposit and based on our total population of 28.3 million, per capita individual deposits in the banking system is about RM13,700.

In any society, savings is the pillar of economic expansion as the savings mobilised can be utilised to fund investments. This is indeed very different in Western society, particularly the US where it was only recently that the US found reasons to save due to the on-going economic fallout.

For years the rest of the world has been funding US consumption as the US has been running current account deficits for years and now ranks as the worst country in the world with the highest amount of current account deficit of US$862.3bil.

Malaysia proudly ranks number 17 with a current account surplus of US$17.86bil.

What is the irony of the Americans and us in Asia? It seems that much of Asia’s savings are channelled towards America’s consumption.

We save and the US spends, but it is Asia’s economy that is said to be weak while Uncle Sam is who the world looks up to as without the US spending power, the rest of the world could collapse, starting with significant decline in trade between the rest of the world and the US.

Based on a recent article by Dr Jagdish Bhagwati, a famous Indian-born economist in the US, the US had taken over US$5 trillion from the world and, today, to keep the US spending habits, the rest of the world has to invest US$2bil per day.

Today, almost US$1.3 trillion of US treasuries are held by the Chinese and Japanese. With more US papers flooding the market and to ensure that the dollar doesn’t collapse, the rest of the world has no choice but to buy these papers.

It is indeed a vicious cycle that we are in now as the world is too dependent on US consumption for its own growth.

Bhagwati further commented in his recent article that a nation cannot grow unless the people spend, not save. Not just spend, but borrow and spend. Saving is sin and spending is virtue.

I must say that the above argument has its merits in the American context but we Asians believe in our own values.

Hence, savings will remain a virtue and we will continue to embrace this belief in us and our children as it is our savings habit that has brought us to where we are today while our spending habits are slowly but surely rising.

It may not come as a surprise that one day, we in Asia too will increase our desire for goods and services to the extent it undermines our ability to save and, at the same time, our ability to be a source of funds for the nation’s economic growth.

THE KPI AND KRA ANECDOTE

I suppose most of us nationwide is aware of the KPI and KRA especially those who have heard about YAB PM recently announced.

So I like you all to take a bit of time to read the following and be alert on my 'cooking of management phrases'

Let's go to the Key Results Areas first (KRA). KRA was born from Management by Objective (MBO) concept introduced by Peter Drucker in 1954. I think KRA is not really part from MBO but rather an evolution to clarify Objectives and Goals better.

(Via a consulting firm in 1997, I was one of the accredited MBO consultant for few Banking and Financial Institutions)

To make it simple - I will explain briefly what to expect from MBO.

It has a Mission Statement then Objectives, Goals and finally Key Result Areas (KRA). Hmm how to put it huh? Ok...input and output hence Productivity was born together with Benchmarking.

The then PM, Honourable Tun Dr. Mahathir introduced the 'Participative Management Concept' via the Look East Policy somewhere around 1982 and the rest is history (Malaysian Incorporated, Privatization, Proton Saga and so on) The participative management is part of what we commonly know as Total Quality Management (TQM) where among others it promote teamwork, bottom-up management, QCC Tools, Small Group Activities (SGA), Six Sigma, human capital, PLAN-DO-CHECK-ACT (PDCA) etc.

The participative management concept has evolutionized MBO further which I also believe the reason for KRA to exist so that it would be on 'mutual consent' basis between the 'setter' and the 'implementer'.

Back to MBO, conceptually speaking, the only thing that may not be measurable is the Mission Statement (although some put 'to become 'x' in 'x' years' while the rest are ALL measurable - be it Objective, Goals and KRA. 'Objectives' in MBO are key strategies to achieve the Mission Statement. Goals in MBO are 'short term objectives' to achieve Main 'Objectives'.

At the micro level (immediately after Goals) KRA is the output expected within a certain period of time.

The art of measuring is also known as 'Benchmarking' (get it?)

In Human Resources, MBO/KRA facilitates the formation of Job Descriptions, Performance Indicators (also related to KPI) and Responsibilities/Authorities.

Objectives and Goals are measured using % where they are being prioritized by a 'brainstorming' session (SGA/QCC) But the numbers of Objectives and Goals may not be the same. Example - One Objective may require two different goals. KRA is considered as the output which will determine the success implementation and continual improvment of Goals and Objectives (cascading principle)

ISO 9000 also has a similar concept known as Department/Unit Objectives which are also 'measureable'.

However most people argued with me that it should also be 'achievable' (although it does not SAY "achievable" in the ISO clause) I disagreed because the 'achievable' may also depend on the scope of work of a business entity.

Say for example, the Department Objective of a 'construction division' is

"to reduce 'x' wastages to...say...3% per 6 months"

What arguers don't see is that :

a) this relates to the value and magnitude of the project itself and
b) the quantity surveyor/purchaser buying 'buffer stock' - just in case

I asked the 'arguers' - what if the contractor gained a bigger project?

The 3% need to be reviewed as it may be TOO MUCH to achieve (for a bigger project) - it should be reduced to 2% but the implementers must justify why it is being reduced. Agreed? (so the arguers now are now my supporters)

So this reviewal or adjustment or ALIGNMENT is also known as BALANCE SCORECARD. (more confused you are all I guess - not to worry - I'm almost finished) Balance Scorecard is part of Strategic Planning and Management popularized by Kaplan (of Harvard) and David Norton. The purpose is to ALIGN activities to the organizational 'vision and strategy', improve communication breakdowns (also in ISO as well), and monitor organization performance against strategic goals (also in Objectives & Goals of MBO) It is to give the implementers a more 'balanced' view of organizational performance. (see ISO's Data Analysis + Quality Cost below)

Again, ISO 9000 concept of Objectives are also based on MBO/KRA as well. But the good thing that we can adopt from ISO is that there is an activity call the 'Data Analysis' for Action Plans/Continual Improvement (not only having statistics and do not know what to do with it) Here's something for all the readers/decision makers to think before you leap :

In Data Analysis, you have number of non-conformances (NCR) per product and you will compare them with other products range (or services). Sometimes, on screen, you see the NCR is high (be it major or minor) on the system (which require minor amendment in certain documentation) and you also see certain NCR is low.

Be careful, go further by 3rd level analysis (by cost - or - Quality Cost) You will find that the 'high NCR' may only cost you about RM1.00 or less!! Why? Because the NCR is about amending documentation - papers or perhaps 'online documentation'. But you'll be shocked to find that the 'lower NCR' are major defects on your product that may cost you MILLIONS although the NCR is only 1 -2. So be careful during an analysis especially when you're doing ISO 9000. And also, don't focus at the 'bad numbers' but also the 'good numbers' (conformity) - as the latter will help you in BRANDING yourself - how do you want your customers to view you....so don't forget your strengths as well (SWOT)

But at least you can learn two things :

a) An objective or goals or KRA may not be 'ACHIEVABLE' if properly justified, (but they should be MEASURABLE of course)
b) You must have a THOROUGH data analysis and find out 'what went wrong' before you make decision.

Hey..wait a sec...where's KPI?

Huh, don't you see? KPI + KRA = BALANCE SCORECARD!! Gotcha!! (That's why I highlighted Balance Scorecard in BOLD)

So don't worry guys, just learn Balance Scorecard and you will learn everything that I've said here now. I'm sure the YAB Prime Minister would agree with me...I'm sure a lot 'thinkers' are telling him 'this and that' and he says...NO WAY...make it simple not complex...so the KPI + KRA are born - one is input, the other is output.

What do you think NIK?

I think that everything I've mentioned here is KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT...tadaaaah

The End

THE NORMAL ANECDOTE

I'm back!!

I've been relooking into the 1998 - 2001 Malaysian economy and discovered many great things. Not about the recession but about how we rebound and learn from our past mistakes. There have been hiccups here and there but yet we survived. I think IF given limited choice, which were the best two ideas that helped - I would vote for two (Of course it's the Legendary Tun M) :

a) 'controversial' decision to peg the RM to the USD and
b) Reintroducing/Rebranding of ICT & new technology

Between 1999 - 2000, new technology including ICT have been reintroduced 'cautiously' into the market and this time, the technology are there to stay and a lot of good things been happening. To mention a few, the Knowledge Management era, B2B/B2C and finally e-commerce.

Numbers of IPOs increased dramatically especially those having to do with technological stocks.

Early 2001 US Market a.k.a. NASDAQ experienced a 'burst of technological bubble'. The Feds attempted to minimize borrowings by increasing the rates to stop bubble burst but the effort came too late.

Then I dig further which leads me towards the fundamental principles of economy. I did say these sacred words (where was it huh?):

"If everybody want to sell, who wants to buy" or "If everyone is a supplier, who is the customer then?"

As you no doubt have guessed - the principle that I'm talking about is "Supply, Demand and Equilibrium" but in a different perspective.

Malaysia almost made the same mistake by giving out loans and grants (via Banks & Financial Institutions including some Government Agencies) but the businesses they were 'helping' are mostly suppliers/contractors/service providers/sellers etc and not customers. New products, New technologies - everything NEW - mostly claimed to 'assist the Government in their plans' but actually to 'make more money'. (In the end suppliers are flooding the market and not customers)

Again, I'm not implying that the business plans submitted didn't take into account the target market a.k.a. the customers but I'm just looking at the facts.

In laymen term, the customers at the point where borrowings were provided to the suppliers or sellers - are either :

a) loosing their purchasing powers quite rapidly.
b) Or did they have too many suppliers to choose hence, they thought of one good idea -
c) why not I just keep my money without spending them?

Then the banking and financial institutions have no choice but to increase the rate in order to minimize borrowings. Although this has; in a manner of speaking; helped in the 'rebounding process, - but again, there were little effort to help out the customers to regain their purchasing powers or increase promotion on buying rather than keeping.

The 'rich' customers did spend their money but based on my analysis on people going out for vacationing and business purposes overseas, these customers were spending outside Malaysia!

Despite the tourism industry did spur the growth of tourists coming in assisted by MIDA, MITI etc for prospects of domestic investment or export but nobody really tried to capture how much money Malaysians are spending outside? (Here, I'm referrring to those who did not use MITI or MIDA avenues to invest outside but rather - their own initiatives - perhaps due to some 'smart partnerships' or 'JVs' that were not announced in the medias. Apart from this category, I will not touch on those who used their money for crazy shopping spree or gambling (well..it's their rights)

The other customers? You've heard it all the time :

Those 'customers really loosing the purchasing power' (moderate or poor family) decided to spend their money by saving them or buying only the required consumables may not be able to invest in 'high end investments'.
------------------------------------------
Back to the future : (now)

Old habits never die.

We have experienced above 1000 KLCI achievements and suddenly (as I have said in another topic) the market become erratic. Yes, I did say that Banks and Financial Institutions including relevant Government Agencies should help and I must admit I was a bit wrong in my decision. (when I found out - loans and grants are focussing mainly on Suppliers again - as I speak)

So, how to balance and reach 'equilibrium'? (not necessarily 50%-50% - you can't do that)

I was speaking to a Malaysian friend working in the Middle East. He noticed one remarkable thing...it's not easy to find a 'poor guy or family'..everyone is working or at least doing business, or very rarely he heard that people cannot buy things over there.

Again, I dig further...my friend told me that if there is a poor guy and they got to know about it...two things will be done :

a. Giving him/her a sum of money to cater for himself and family, pay his/her debts/overheads etc.

b. Next, giving him a job with proper training and development so that he too can earn a salary just like everyone else,

c. Alternatively, he will be given (not a loan) a sum of money to open up a business (again with training) if he has interest in any kind of business or accepting suggestions from Government 'experts/consultants'.

(Yes, you might say that the Middle East have abundance of oil and everyone is rich. But this country in the Middle East is a LOT bigger than Malaysia. For Malaysia and its population, we also have enough supply of fuel/oil and abundance of resources for everyone as well..)

I'm not asking too much - all I'm hoping for we can take good examples - how we're going to do it..that is really up to us. I think 'good intentions' must also be there before we do everything.

So conclusion for now....make effort to 'balance up' between the 'sellers' and 'buyers'...you'll see improvements in economy..I guarantee it!

--------------------------------------------
Here's my complaints for the day :

1) Funny, I still see 'genuine poor people' in Gombak who are really scared to ask for help because

a) they are illiterate or

b) been cheated with their ICs 'taken away' by unscrupulous people or

c) too scared to go to Government offices to ask for help or scared of procedures or scared of being chased out and many more.

so where's the 'Wakil Rakyat'? Where's the 'Ahli Parlimen' - don't care 'lah' whether you from BN or BA..just do your work - do not treat these people as 'don't exist'!

2) Funny, for almost 10 years, I still see 'rats' and 'unattended garbages' - if we can't solve these two 'small problems' or start pointing hands to another party - then what more to solve problems of people?

The Star News Nation - Friday June 26, 2009
Negri turns down RM8bil investment

NILAI: The state government has rejected an RM8bil investment from a company based in the Middle East to set up a petrochemical plant in Port Dickson.

Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan said the state authorities had decided not to accept the investment as it was a potential environment hazard.

“We want to preserve our mangroves and our pristine beaches. We do not want to be spending a lot more money later to rehabilitate our beaches which are the best south of Kuala Lumpur,” he told reporters at the soft launch of the RM60mil Nilai Springs Resort Hotel here.



Mohamad looking at a section of the lunch buffet after opening the Nilai Springs Resort Hotel while Gan looks on

Mohamad said the state government also rejected the bid as the site chosen by the company was a forest reserve.

He said the state government would not allow such projects along the coastline.

“No structures should be built on the sea as these could also have an adverse impact on the environment,” he said.

On a separate matter, Mohamad said an American company would build a RM400mil manufacturing plant in Bandar Enstek.

“They have signed a land purchase agreement with us and earth works are expected to start soon,” he said, without revealing the name of the company.

It would employ up to 750 workers when in full operation.

Mohamad said an international school would also be built in Nilai next year to cater to the needs of the expatriate community living in the state. “Most of these expatriates, particularly South Koreans and Japanese, are forced to live in Kuala Lumpur because we do not have an international school here.”

Mohamad also congratulated Tan Sri Gan Kong Seng, the chairman of PK Resources and owner of the four-star Nilai Springs Resort Hotel for having the foresight to build the 183-room hotel here.

“This is a strategic location and its proximity to the KLIA, Putrajaya, Cyberjaya and the Formula 1 circuit certainly gives it an advantage over others,” he added.
-----------------------------------------------

My response

Dear YAB Mentri Besar of Negeri Sembilan
Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan

May I dedicate my greatest respect and congratulate you for such a courageous act in the name of environmental management and preservation. It must be hard for you to make such an unpopular decision but what is right is still right.

I'm not from Negri Sembilan but Port Dickson is like a getaway home to my family. You are very right to say that the NS Government will spend so much money on rehabilitation if the project allowed to be carried out.

As a result of unsustainable development, the marine life in Port Dickson is deteriorating badly - coral reefs, fish, etc. Thus, the fast pace of development without guarantee of safeguarding the environment should be put to halt immediately. Efforts to restore the marine life must be carried out now!

In those good old days, almost everywhere in Port Dickson used to look like Tanjung Tuan. Tanjung Tuan has now become a role model where no unsustainable development is allowed - Tanjung Tuan is a cape of natural coastal forest with mangroves and good for bird watching.

The petrochemical industry pumps out petroleum and chemicals through miles of pipeline. Mainly offshore - commonly, it cuts through the coastal wetlands (hence cutting into the swamp) bringing salt water inland 'murdering' the trees which stand as natural 'erode proof' - Wetlands will soon loosing it's buffer of protection and eventually more land will vanish.

Furthermore, do not underestimate the power of global warming. It can push up sea levels hence exposing the coastline to be more fragile to natural disasters (even how small it would be)

YAB Datuk Seri

I wish every MB would take you as an example. Development is fine with me but by compromising the environment is not acceptable.

We still have people cutting trees indiscriminately and in the end, these same people started to complain about how hot it is to stay in their place where they are living.

This is really happening to the place where I'm staying - Taman Seri Gombak (which ironically many people tend to forget the name of this place - I don't know why) and I feel very dissapointed with the current pace of unsustainable development.

People who do not know how to preserve the environment today will create a dark future for their own generation tommorrow

Thanks and regards - YAB - keep up the good work

Wassalam.

NIK ZAFRI

DEAR HEDGE FUNDS MANAGERS

Although hedging is done 'discreetly' by some 'hedge fund managers', I still think that Malaysia (in particular SC) should keep a close surveillance by having a revised version of regulations to monitor private equity company's especially. I heard stories from some European friends that EC has come out with such regulations. Finally EC has come to its senses and limit of patience. (the line must be drawn here..this far..no further...) Anything > 1:1 leverage is only a 'rumour' and excuse being protective but if you go on being stubborn about it - it may be 'the end' of private equity...(trust me)

I know that many may disagree with me and they are willing to see me to debate endlessly on the subject (hey..you guys are forgetting, I am well aware of the mechanisms..ok?) Everyone involve in hedge fund in Malaysia in whatever capacity should know better what's going on this world today. Even the most popular and oldest Rolodex is slowing down..so, you should think twice before moving on...(not to mention Alpha, Pequot and Andor - possible shut down is expected)

Bursa Malaysia is just showing the signs of curing but if you should all know the danger of 'reopening old wounds'...look around you..do you care? Volatile price, foreclosure even unemployment (not to mention crime rates) etc can be translated into 'not favouring' the hedge funds...in short - 'losses'!! But so many of us claimed that hedge funds is not the cause but quoting European policymakers :

"They many have exacerbated it by fueling bubbles with leveraged investments in the good times and then offloading assets by the bucket-load in the bad times"

Many people follow your assurance that they'll be making money but they didn't actually get what they should be getting - but most of you fund managers love to blame 'the economic crisis'...what an absurd statement! (excuse me!) You are 'hedging'!! (making money in down markets - this doesn't work anymore..face it!) Traders and portfolio managers have been sending e-mails to me that they are loosing money out of their pockets...ask them why? (20% on top of 2% management fee? Ring a bell?)

But despite of all these talks of mine - I ain't implying that hedge fund is no good but during unsuitable times like today, something should be done either follow the rules 'religiously' or off you go! Why Nik? Here's my answer : it's almost 1998 all over again...and I'm sure you don't want this to reoccur. 1998 is not because of hedge funds but a proper regulations were not really there yet.

So, what sort of regulations Nik? You have ideas? Ok..first of all private equity and hedge funds 'people' must be transparent from now on...no more 'disreet'..no more 'classified'..no more 'confidentiality'. I know sometimes taxation is a big issue to you but give it a thought for just a short while - give your lending ears to listen to what I have to say before you click 'x' on this blog.
-----------------------

Initial proposal from Nik Zafri to anyone out there reading my blog - who wish to listen :

You must first reveal your plan (To the proper authorities..I don't know..maybe SC, Inland Revenue, BNM) on:

a) managing level of capital,

b) managing risk,

c) valuation of assets and most important

d) your strategy in doing business.

2nd - STOP NOW if you're involved in any trade relating to MONEY LAUNDERING!! (so, is this the thing you're being discreet about?) Get out now before it's too late!

3rd - It's time to pay based on gains not losses!! Otherwise, we will go back to square 1...make money during down market..gosh...

Having this sort of regulations may help our economic recovery further but of course if the regulations are not strict enough and having loopholes...definitely there can be abuse - some people in the market will always creatively found a way to do 'evasive maneuvers'

-------------------------

More to come...

SO, WHAT ELSE SHOULD WE DO?

Everyone is having their own 'hypotheses' and 'scapegoats to blame' on the economic condition today. Yes, it all started from the US sub-prime mortgage crisis and ultimately like a 'contagious desease' - it 'assaulted' the banking and financial institutions including their instruments.

1) Lawmakers claimed that it's the financial institutions failed to adhere to the BAFIA and latter snarled at lawmakers for inadequate enforcement.

2) Investors hurled allegations at banks for 'wiping out' their money 'riskily' (insurance, pension funds etc) and the latter fought back saying that investors gave them authority to do so.

3) Fund Managers are affected as well - demanding for higher pay and/or higher fees.

Seeing international big 'fat' banks being closed did not make things any better. And they said it's 'management problem' - how can international banks operating successfully for nearly or more than a century old can blame on 'management problem'? It doesn't make sense-does it? Furthermore - they were supposed to be the champions of corporate governance with stringent auditors and audit committees working according to codes of practice..in short - by the book! (or the auditors are the 'Baring', 'Enron', 'Worldcom' and 'AA' type of auditors?)

Or perhaps they hired the wrong people? or the unqualified 'Non-Executive Directors' in the Board?(perhaps those with insufficient experience in making turnarounds) So what happens now? Sack them?

But most significantly - the investors are watching directors and auditors very closely...one small mistake can cause huge amount of 'deadly' criticisms and 'threats' like 'I'm no longer investing with you' and vote of inconfidence in AGM.

Lawmakers say that stricter regulations are required - beefed up 'security' to provide a 'win-win' situation for both the investors and the banking/financial institutions. But I think - this is the question of enforcement - our BAFIA and financial standards are FINE!!

So, banks should be giving more and more lending...it looks good but it may also be risky. So, excessive lending without proper control probably would land the banks into trouble and soon ended up in the bailout long list.

I read a good statement from Chairman of IMA during one FSA's Asset Management conference:

"Investment banks are creating and distributing structured investment products aimed at the retail investor. Deceptively simple in sales pitch but complex in construction, they carry issuer risk, liquidity risk, and a level of costs which the retail buyer may not fully understand. Yet this is an area largely free from regulatory oversight and competes directly with a highly regulated traditional investment industry where agency status is central, transparency of fees and holdings de rigueur and government pressure to raise levels of treating customers fairly foremost. Is someone asleep at the watch?”

So? Lawmakers to be blamed? How's credit rating agencies for a change?

Now - agencies in credit rating (CRA) - should their roles be redefined? I know their roles in the capital market are very relevant but

a) Can we really depend on 'estimation'?
b) or just take it as a guide?
c) Are credit rating really accurate?

I know so much money has been spent based on their findings on bonds, debt instruments etc. And how many corporations shuddered when being rated superficially. (not to mention shares and human disposals)

But of course, I find that CRA's consultation can still be improved - on financial products - CDO for example and of course not forgetting the tranching of asset portfolios etc. Most of all, they need to educate the investors on the rationale of their ratings including the complex variations of many types of bonds.

Investors - I recommend that they too need to carry more responsibility rather than putting the blame on others who have worked so hard to ensure sustainability. So have mercy!!

HOW LONG OR HOW TO MAINTAIN THE 'RECOVERY' - Nik Zafri (2009)

Hello again...today I'm 'blogging' not 'lecturing'...( :-) )

So, the Malaysian Economy has shown signs of survival at last...but the golden question now is for how long? Some say :

“Wait till September, before something will go wrong”

Thinking of September always give me the shudders – not only because it's my birthday month (unfortunately) but many things happen 'coincidentally' during September. So, can we or can we not change our 'destiny'?

Here goes nothing :

We need some good support or some sort of infrastructure – call it politics if you want.

1.We need to lower down the poverty level regardless of background, status, race, religion and political tendency. Yes, this reminds me of the Ninth Malaysian Plan (2006-2010).

But of course, rough ideas can always be 'liberated' further for e.g.

a) What Senator Datuk Seri Sharizat Jalil recommended today that the Welfare Department should also consider assisting those 'owning cars, motorbikes, televisions and refrigerator' – which are now considered no longer 'things that only wealthy people can own'.

b) The 'Lembaga Zakat' wider functions should also be taken into account.

Assisting Poor Kids to School

Besides assisting potential entrepreneurs and donation to the needies, the banking and financial institutions should also come out with some ideas on how they can chip in into this – at least sponsor the poor kids to school (I know some have done this but more programs like these would go far in order to really achieve the status of 'responsible corporate citizen'...hmm that's a good idea...why not we have certs or some sort of certifications' entitled the 'Responsible Corporate Citizen's Award'...perhaps YAB Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib can do the awarding ceremony – perhaps the award or cert entitle the corporate entities with some 'waivings' apart from tax)

Eat good and healthy food – now this one is really very serious! Diabetes, Hypertension, Heart Attack, Mamak Stall, Nasi Lemak, Smoking/drinkng (whoops) God knows how many more! What kind of food are we Malaysians taking?!!

Perhaps Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai should look into this matter as well....just make the food pyramid bigger so that everyone can see it!! Remember, good food gives you good brains and good brains will help you out solve matters.

One more thing....food in school canteen and cafeterias must adhere to strict food regulations – regular checks by authorities etc. No more food poisoning cases please... (remember also to provide or sponsor free healthy food for ALL children and students in school – once a week? - any takers? Nestle?)

For the banking and financial institutions, venture capitalist and grant providers

Only one thing...Show us the MONEY!! How about releasing the ones that are still in your safekeeping now??

Now is the right time...you have good benchmarks, great KPIs, good collaterals, guarantors even, not to mention viability and feasibility...so what are you waiting for? Afterlife? Bailouts?

For the politicians (regardless who you're with)

Stop the nonsense and craps....go help the Prime Minister 1 Malaysia! Go do your jobs in your constituencies...not just gatherings in community halls - go to mamak stalls if you have to (don't worry, if common people swarm you with proposals or asking you money or projects..just give a lending ear and say "I'll see what I can do" but 'must do according to procedures')

Work harder.....

Then if you wish to fight in the course of implementation or for the sake of people's progress, then fight 'lah'....make sure jobs are done!!

For the government

I found out that energy savings attitude should be inculcated further, from the government offices to corporate sectors and finally the 'rakyat' (or the other way round) There are still wastages of electricity, water supply etc...this must stop...

On the other had, those places that still do not have anything at all...be it electricity or water supply, must be assisted NOW!

ICT – another never-ending issue, I think I've said once (which paper was it?), don't focus too much on 'classy places' but the out of town as well...don't depend so much on small time providers such as cybercafes – give a first class infrastructure (plus educate them) just like what you've given to the 'urbanians' (if there's such word)


For the property market

(to be continued) - I think there are articles in here that you guys can make use.

AS PREDICTED BY NIK ZAFRI




As Nik Zafri has predicted, there will be signs of recovery for Malaysia from April, 2009

NIK ZAFRI'S HUMBLE FORECAST FOR 2009 - (Made in December, 2008)

2ND SIGN

1ST SIGN


-------------------------
THE STAR - BUSINESS

Thursday April 16, 2009

Economy expected to perform better, says Bank Negara

KUALA LUMPUR: The economy should perform better in the second half of the year as the fiscal stimulus packages are implemented and the effects of the supportive monetary environment kick in, Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said.

"The first quarter was very much affected by external economic contraction taking place, our exports numbers have shown that,” she said.

Malaysian Institute of Economic Research expects local exports to decline 24% this year on sagging worldwide demand, the think tank said in its report yesterday.
Speaking after launching the Interbank Murabahah Master Agreement (IMMA) and Master Agency Agreement (MAA) yesterday, Zeti said the domestic economy was still growing and “this is what we need to sustain the country’s economy”.

Asked if the central bank would revise its economic growth target, she said: “Right now, we have made the assumption that in the second half, the external environment will stabilise and that the fiscal stimulus packages will be implemented.”

“And so, in the current environment, our projection is flat growth as the contraction of the external sector would be offset by domestic demand,” she said.

Bank Negara has projected the economy to register a growth rate of -1% to 1% this year.

On whether the economy had bottomed, Zeti said: “No, it is not clear yet what the direction is in the global economy.”

There was “some stabilisation” taking place but “we still have to wait and see”, she said.

To another query on interest rates, the governor said the central bank had already adopted an aggressive stance and now the focus was to ensure that lending continued.

Zeti said there was no need to raise banks’ minimum capital requirement at the moment.

Non-performing loans were at a historical low now at just over 2%, she said, adding that even if the rates rose, banks were “well positioned to absorb it”.

Zeti said Malaysia did not manage its exchange rate against any specific currency.

“The currency is not a policy instrument but is used to facilitate trade and investment,” she said.

Meanwhile, the newly launched agreements have been adopted by the members of the Association of Islamic Banking Institutions Malaysia (AIBIM) for their deposit-taking and placement transactions.

AIBIM president Datuk Zukri Samat said the adoption of the IMMA and MAA documents would help increase the intensity of Islamic interbank activities.

Like any other money market products, the success of commodity murabahah-based instruments would depend largely on the existence of a standardised document as well as a universally-acceptable structure that was widely recognised by the market, he said.
-------------------------------
Published: Thursday April 16, 2009 MYT 9:39:00 AM
Updated: Thursday April 16, 2009 MYT 9:41:26 AM

TNB powers KLCI early rise

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares on Bursa Malaysia jumped in early Thursday trade, as Wall Street rebound overnight buoyed investors’ sentiment across Asia.

Tenaga Nasional Bhd led rising stocks, adding 25 sen to RM6.75 on brighter outlook despite a drop in profits in the second quarter.

The surge in trading volume in the past few days also helped lift sentiment on the exchange operator, Bursa Malaysia Bhd. The stock climbed 25 sen to RM6.25.

Another big movers among index-linked companies was Malayan Banking Bhd. The counter soared 16sen to RM4.48.

The KL Composite Index advanced 11.44 points, or 1.2% to 968.12 points as at 9.27am. Turnover had surpassed 400 million shares worth at least RM200mil less than half an hour into trade.

The FBM Small Cap index, which track stocks outside the top 100 counters, gained 1.65% to 7,549 points

Around the region, stocks opened higher after stocks on Wall Street staged a late rally overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial ended 1.4% higher to 8,029 and the broader S&P 500 index gained 1.25% to 852 points.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 shot up 3% to 9,007 points, while Seoul’s main Kospi index opened 2.4% higher at 1,365 points. Singapore’s Straits Times index kick off Thursday’s trade with a 2% gain at 1,943 points.
-----------------------------------
Thursday April 16, 2009

Local stock market promising, set to make gains: CIMB Research

By EDY SARIF

PETALING JAYA: The local stock market outlook is promising and set for further gains due to the “political succession effect and the bottoming of foreign selling,” CIMB Research said.

“We see an improved outlook for the market due to a few reasons,” the research house wrote in its latest report.

“One is the political succession effect when Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak took over as prime minister. Historically, the market performed strongly in the three to six months before and after the changes.”

CIMB Research recently upgraded its rating on the local stockmarket to “overweight” from “neutral” and also raised its target for the KL Composite Index (KLCI) to 1,060 points from 1,013.

An imminent “reversal” in the flow of foreign funds would further lift the local bourse, the research house said, noting that foreign shareholdings were at their lowest level in February since September 2003, at only US$3bil (RM10.85bil).

“The slowdown in foreign fund’s net selling should lessen the downside pressure on share prices,” CIMB Research said.

“In fact, a reversal of these trends would provide a fillip to the market given local and foreign funds’ very high cash levels.”

It added that “a reversal should be imminent as the 12 straight months of net selling are unprecedented”.

Fortress Capital Asset Management (M) Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Thomas Yong said the current assessment on how the stock market was doing was much clearer to investors.

“This is supported by a significant amount of rebound in the market as Malaysia, with less foreign ownership, seems to recover much faster as compared with Singapore and Hong Kong,” he told StarBiz.

Aberdeen Asset Management fund manager Abdul Jalil Abdul Rasheed said as a long-term investor, they were not looking much at the daily performance of stock market.

“We don’t strategise ourselves for short-term market rally as what is happening now in the market. We are steadily buying regardless of whether the market is up or down. In fact, we buy more when the market is down,” he told StarBiz.

But some fund managers remain cautious, according to Kumpulan Sentiasa Cemerlang Sdn Bhd research director Choong Khuat Hock.

“These fund managers (would not rush in) to buy the stocks as they are not sure whether the market recovery would be sustainable,” he told Starbiz, referring to recent stock market rallies.

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(This article has been republished in nikzafri.blogspot.com with permission from Dr. Bradley Smith, President of PeopleKeys(R) Corporation, please visit the official Corporate Website for more details)

CLICK ON THE PIC TO VIEW :

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The death of the 'decoupling' theory?

By Conrad de Aenlle Published: January 25, 2008

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., on Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2008. U.S. stocks pared their biggest decline since 2002 after the Federal Reserve's emergency rate cut helped mitigate concern the economy is slipping into recession. (Jin Lee/Bloomberg News)

No one can say how much has been lost by investors basing decisions on unproven strategies that work in theory, but the amount has grown significantly. As trillions of dollars were wiped off the value of global stocks this week, "decoupling" became the latest big idea to shrink dramatically when tested in the real world.

Decoupling holds that European and Asian economies, especially emerging ones, have broadened and deepened to the point that they no longer depend on the United States for growth, leaving them insulated from a severe slowdown there, even a fully fledged recession. Faith in the concept has generated strong outperformance for stocks outside the United States - until now.

As opinion began to solidify after the start of the year that a recession, or something close to it, was likely in the United States, stock prices accelerated their declines, with the selling intensifying early this week. Contrary to what the decouplers would have expected, the losses were greater outside the United States, with the worst experienced in emerging markets and such developed economies as Germany and Japan.

Exports make up especially large portions of economic activity in those places, but that was not supposed to matter anymore in a decoupled world because domestic activity was thought to be so robust.

Decoupling was all the rage early last year when international financial markets all but ignored the increasing turmoil in the U.S. economy and stock market. Investment advisers point out, however, that the segments of the U.S. economy that were showing wear and tear then were those to which the rest of the world would never be heavily exposed. That is no longer true, they say, and markets are responding accordingly.

"Decoupling is yesterday's story," Stuart Schweitzer, a global strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, declared. "Last year, when the U.S. slowdown was driven almost entirely by housing, it made sense that the rest of the world kept right on going. Housing is a domestic story, plain and simple.

"The nature of the slowdown has changed in two key respects. The credit crunch that began in midsummer is not just a U.S. phenomenon; the rise in risk aversion is global and will have an impact on credit terms and availability everywhere. And we're finally seeing evidence that the U.S. job market is losing steam and consumer spending is slowing."

True believers in decoupling have ignored another theory that appears to be logically inconsistent with it, has been popular for far longer and, most important, has been shown to work in real life. Remember globalization?

"If anything, global interdependence of economies is rising, not falling," said Jeff Applegate, chief investment officer of Citi Global Wealth Management.

"The notion that the U.S. can go into recession with no negative knock-on effect in the rest of the world doesn't hold up."

Andrew Foster, head of equity research for Matthews International Capital, a specialist in Asian markets, contends that it is possible for globalization and decoupling to coexist. In fact, one gave rise to the other, he said. It was only through economic liberalization that the juggernaut economies of Asia were able to grow as fast as they have, allowing for the development of conspicuously consuming middle classes.

"The irony is that these economies are more coupled with the rest of the world than they ever were in the past," he said. "That's why they're so strong, and that has allowed them to become more independent."

The new Asian consumers may not be able to compensate for all of the exports that would be lost during an American recession, Foster said, but some of the companies that serve their needs might still do all right for themselves. The true decoupling may be not so much between the United States and the rest of the world as between segments of the global economy that cater to the burgeoning nouveau riche in emerging economies on one hand and most other commercial sectors on the other.

With the United States apparently tipping over into recession, Foster is looking to fill his Asia portfolios with the first type of businesses, as long as they have not been bid up to unreasonable levels already. A couple of pockets of opportunity that he finds are Chinese insurance companies and Indian health care providers.

"I like companies that don't derive their fortunes from products, services and especially commodities dominated by the global business cycle," he said, although he declined to furnish examples.

Valuation is also critical for Michael Avery, chief investment officer of Waddell & Reed and a professed believer in decoupling - up to a point. He noted that the concept began to pop into the heads of professional investors, including his, during the last U.S. recession, in 2001-2002, although it had not yet achieved buzzword status.

"A lot of people in our business were thinking about where the world was going to head in a post-9/11 environment," Avery recalled. "The U.S. economy had slowed dramatically in 2001, and you had places in the world like China and India that continued to grow at mid- to high single digits. That set in motion the thinking that the U.S. might not be the leading economic force going forward."

But while he accepts the basic idea of economic decoupling, he is not fanatical about it as an investment theme, at least not now. The emerging world will grow faster than the United States, in his view, but Avery doubts that sufficient growth can be achieved to justify the valuations being put on companies in those markets by the new wave of decoupling adherents.

"The big difference in 2002 is that not many people placed bets on that outcome, so there wasn't much risk," he said.

"Now I can go anywhere, and if I talk about China and India and the emerging middle class, they all nod their heads. It's a huge difference from five years ago."

Avery still finds value in some domestically oriented sectors in Asia, as well as in Middle Eastern markets that continue to benefit from one key export, crude oil. He noted that while exports to the United States of less viscous products may be at risk, the growth of middle-class spending is promoting a healthy expansion of trade within the emerging world.

Avery made a big bet on declining share prices late last year when he sold short derivative contracts tied to benchmark stock indexes. But his Ivy Asset Strategy Fund has substantial holdings in such plays on emerging-market domestic demand as the phone company China Mobile; Veolia Environnement, a French producer of water treatment systems, and Las Vegas Sands, an American hotel and casino operator expanding into Macao.

In addition to selling stock index futures, Avery has about 10 percent of his portfolio each in gold, cash and Treasury bonds as hedges against the uncertainties and jolts that would accompany a U.S. recession.

Tim Guinness, chairman and chief investment officer of Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, is another whose objection to decoupling is more a matter of how it works in practice.

"I'm a moderate decoupling believer," he acknowledged. "I'm in the camp that believes that China is rapidly moving from being dependent on exports to the U.S. to enjoying a virtuous circle of rapidly rising incomes for Chinese consumers and very strong momentum behind internally driven growth."

There is momentum in China's stock market, too, he noted, but in a different direction. Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of decoupling is giving back much of its enormous gains of the last few years as investors break faith with the concept.

"I prefer China, but not today," Guinness said. "The next few months will see a continued retreat in China-related stocks. The correction already has been very pronounced."

He prefers less bubbly stock markets in emerging economies where domestic demand is strong, like South Korea and Thailand. Individual stocks that he favors include PTT in Thailand, Singapore Petroleum and Cemig, a Brazilian hydroelectric company.

Applegate, at Citi, finds stocks better value than bonds. He particularly likes global banks and stocks in Europe and emerging markets generally, although he considers China and Hong Kong fairly pricey.

Bonds and equities have experienced sharply diverging fortunes recently. Many stock markets are more than 20 percent below their 2007 highs, while yields on government bonds have plummeted, sending their prices aloft.

Movements in both markets suggest that investors are factoring a global recession into their thinking, a development that could set the stage for the next rally in stocks and render the decoupling argument moot.

Another theory, with a proven track record, states that stocks should be bought once the economy is recognized to be in recession. By then, share prices account for all or most of the bad news, the authorities have taken steps to correct imbalances and a recovery is often imminent.

"Play the movie forward," Applegate said. "If the economy is going to soften globally, then can you expect more central bank policy response? The answer is a resounding yes."

In such conditions, he said, "you should have more of a preference for equities over bonds."

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Nik Zafri's Comments : I've been saying it!!!

MALAYSIA : MARKET GOING UP - ECONOMICAL RECESSION GOING DOWN - MARCH TO APRIL - SOMETHING GOOD IS HAPPENING.


1) Mini Budget - 2nd Stimulus - RM60 billion
2) ASEAN Finance Ministers Meeting - RM308 Billion common fund

Hmmm...Looks like I was right...It's gonna be March to April, 2008..for Malaysia.

Market gonna go up this month!!

Investors - Alert!!
Employers - restructure your retrenchment or layoff plans NOW!!
Employees - work harder than ever before - quit worrying!!
Banks and Financial Institutions - approve loans now - give a good BLR!!
Food Price - should be stable but the Government has to do enforcement!!

There's more...

So, let's see what the 'so-called' speculators, economists, analysts have to say this time...more excuses?

THE POWER OF TELLING THE TRUTH - By Nik Zafri

In this brief article of mine, I will not mention names of company or individuals involved. Just something that can be seriously considered before laying off workers.

ABC company is a diversified business entity. So, comes one fine day when the Executive Commitee decided to lay off at least 500 nos. The MD was furious and told the members of the board - NO WAY...we won't have enough despite the members were saying "We can outsource certain services" (typical corporate excuse)

But of course, being the major shareholder and owner of the company, the MD has the final say. So he arranged for a special small convention to see ALL the workers, executives and senior executives - surprisingly together with their families.

The MD told them the truth of what's happening in their company and he gave everyone a choice, to leave with some gratuities/compensation or VSS or to stay on with less salary with one assurance; should the company 'goes up' again, they will be rewarded.

ALL the workers, execs and execs, DECIDED TO STAY! and WORK HARDER with little pay. Even the union known to reject also AGREED to stay.

In 6 months, the company profitted tripled and everyone was happy receiving their rewards as promised.

I'm sure I don't need to tell what's the morale of this true story. Imagine, a simple telling the truth would do to you.

This was what I've said few months back :

Many have forecasted that SEA will be the first to rebound from the current economic crisis by September, 2009.

On the other hand, what saddens me most is that some even forecasted that Asian economy will fall badly in 2009 - such a pathetic statement meant to discourage us.

In the past, we have been known for the reputation of outperforming the US and Europe due to the right planning and eventually become very immune to any credit crunch from the West.

Some countries are not even depending on IMF or World Bank in 1997-1998-remember? Even China has been too much underestimated (not that I disagree but too much 'smart' speculations..come on) by these 'so-called' economic forecasters.

I have always been known as a 'reverse psychological' person. I don't believe in 'too obvious bad news' being reported meant to lure the small investors away but giving great monetary advantages to speculators.

Based on these 'unfounded fears', I feel strongly that the Asian will be one of the key players in the world economy commencing from 2009.

But of course, I have a different theory (especially for Malaysia) - I think it's earlier than that...say April, 2009?

AND

Where would be the ideal starting point? The answer is the first tier - Banking and Financial Institutions. I would like to open this suggestion to Asia (or SEA) as Asia is a very unique continent that has always found a way towards survival. (perhaps some democratization of financial policies should be in place) Most important is TRUST and coordinated efforts one another - as every bankers and financiers have all the knowledge. (Don't wait for someone else to start first) There should be no more too much dependency on certain elite groups or industries that are 'controlling the financial world' and we have seen the impact when these 'big mega industries' started to fall
-------------------------------

Today...I'm so happy to see THIS NEWS :

From The Star 21 February, 2009:

Asean to seek consensus on RM308b common fund

PHUKET: Malaysia, along with other Asean members, will meet tomorrow to seek consensus on a multi-billion dollar Asean+3 Cooperation Fund for economic stimulus packages.

Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak will lead the Malaysian delegation at the special meeting among Asean finance ministers, together with their counterparts from China, Japan and South Korea.

The meeting is to formalise a common fund aimed at bolstering foreign exchange reserves to cope with the global economic crisis.

Under the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation Scheme, Asean members, Japan, China and South Korea have agreed to create a pool of US$84bil (RM308bil). The fund, which was agreed to in May last year, is to help boost forex reserves among member countries.

China, Japan and South Korea will contribute 80% of the fund while the remaining 10 Asean countries will come up with the rest.

A Malaysian Finance Ministry official said Asean finance ministers would also discuss methods to protect the region’s economy and other joint initiatives to overcome the current economic slum.

“Asean finance ministers are also expected to discuss and raise the fund to US$120bil (RM441bil) to help revive the region’s economy.

“The meeting will also seek views on ways to tackle the current economic issues as well as enhancing the regional trade and financial markets corporation.”
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Nik's comments :

The RIGHT MOVE!! GO FOR IT!!

Personal Note : I sure hope President Obama sees this.

NIK ZAFRI'S CODE OF ETHICS FOR FREELANCE CONSULTANTS

(c) Reserved 2000 - (Revision 1 - 2004, Revision 2 - 2009) - Nik Zafri Abdul Majid. Duplication/infringement of any part(s)of this article/'intellectual property' without prior consent from the author may result in serious litigation.

ABSTRACT/DISCLAIMER

The reasons for this article being written (or rather handbook) :

- To guide and recommend freelance consultants/trainer/developer (Hereinafter referred to as "FC") with proper code of practice/etiquettes of how to conduct freelance services appropriately .

- To close the gap of understanding between the 'interested parties' and FCs (interested parties - Client, Public At Large, Authorities, Professional Affiliation Organization and those having interest in this topic)

This article is not meant to be a catalyst or in support or in line to/with any existing law(s), regulation(s) or standard(s) issued/gazetted by any authorised party(ies)in any part(s) of the world. If any of the elements below found to be in common/similar with other sources, then the similarities should be considered purely coincidental.The author welcomes comments from readers especially other FCs from all around the globe.

RULE NO. 1

An FC is unlikely to be hired or earning a fixed income/wages/allowances with any specific organisation. He/she is basically operating under his own individual name or company. (START SMALL - END BIG, START BIG - SMALL!)

Note - likely to operate based on SOHO (either from house or small outlet rented with basic office automations especially a fully equipped personal/laptop/notebook computer - fully equipped PC/Laptop or Notebook computer means those with Wi-Fi-Wi-Max (x-max) /Broadband connection, Smart Office facilities such as Auto Answering, Responders, Fax on Demand, Network Connection readiness-VPN/Wireless LAN, perhaps a handheld device etc. etc.)

An FC also likely to form :

Smart Partnership/Association/Affiliation - Project Basis and/or Profit Sharing with established consulting firms - in other words - 'visiting basis/smart associates'. Depending on the agreed written terms and conditions, He/She may likely enjoy some perks/benefits on this kind of deal. He/She is not usually defined as 'Resident Consultant' unless otherwise, the terms and conditions set by the client are being reviewed or the project requirements are as such.

RULE NO. 2


In his/her quotation, professional charges/fees are usually based on the following (typical - depending on cases) calculation/formula :

Standard Market Price/person or hour/day X % Training Grants Rebate = Nett Charges (after less unclaimable training rebate due to hiring a freelance consultant)

Consider giving other discounts based on number of days or trainees. FC may also assist the client to claim any training grants or rebate if the client is a registered contributor and provided that the FC himself is an accredited/certified trainer.

Also, in his quotation/proposal, the fee is likely to exclude costs like f & b, incidental, accommodation etc. etc. to be borned by the Client.Upon agreement, an FC usually asks for a certain commitment fee on 'without prejudicial and TRUST basis' (to be minused with overall professional charges and balance to be paid upon completion of programme....SATISFACTORILY!)

All the professional charges usually goes to his own savings or current account or if he/she is on smart-partnership - it will go to the consulting firms and paid to his account accordingly (to the agreement between FC and the consulting firm)

Be prepared to pay tax if required to do so. Keep genuine and accurate documentation, records and datum (plural of data...not datas)- DO NOT AVOID TAX!! (Don't worry...since the freelance consulting market usually fluctuates, just be honest with the IRD in your declaration)

Note : The 'cake' is very big. Do not argue or underestimate or try to 'kick out' other fellow consultant(s). In not too many words, they are 'your brothers/sisters'...cooperate with them...remember no consultant can claim that 'he/she knows everything' or 'jack of all trades'. Do not spoil the market. Take a 'small slice of cake' and always remember - 'quality and quantity'.

Always 'sacrifice' a fraction of your knowledge to your client..it doesn't hurt a bit..in fact it helps a lot!

Most important, do not 'show off' (talk big or boast) in the presence of your client.

REMEMBER, you are a freelance consultant and not a CEO of some major bluechip corporation in the country.

I've seen 'consultants' like these before...they talk big, act big, CHARGE BIG, but work SMALL, contribution SMALL and end SMALL!! - BE HUMBLE!!

RULE NO.3

An FC :

must possess ICT and Technological-based knowledge (or technical - even if you have to be self-learned in engineering discipline) and 'a little bit of' skills (able to provide solution rather than hypothesis - for this you need to have an informative online portal to impress your client(s) must possess adequate hands-on experience in multiple management/industrial disciplines must possess eloquency, confidence and able to properly present himself/herself (be aware, alert, susceptible in confronting almost all types of situation) must update himself/herself with the latest knowledge and its rapid evolution must possess basic academical qualification (s) (advantage but lately not a prerequisite! - experience is more favourable)

An FC must provide a proper contact address and telephone nos., e-mail, website URL, plus detailed information about himself.

Note : The more 'transparent' you are...the betterAn FC must have the initiative to develop a vast network of communication/contacts with other consultant(s) or consulting firm (s), government agencies/authorities and clients. This network will assist him/her greatly in fields he or she unfamiliar with.

An FC shall provide his/her client (s) with many options in consulting/developing and training programmes/packages. Most economical - Client will send only one key personnel to be trained and disseminate the information to his/her organisation. In doing so, an FC must equip his training/developing/consulting package(s) with a proper and systematical chains of feedback, follow-up, surveillance, monitoring, supervision, service and verification systems. These elements shall facilitate:

- 3rd Party Follow-Up Assessment (s) if required by the client
- Genuine understanding by the client after being trained by his/her own officer
- Follow-up training/consulting/development if necessary
- LONG TERM business and professional relationship
Another type of training would be the in-house training at the client's premise or elsewhere determined by the client. Charges/fees should follow the aforesaid formula. Try to avoid 'public programmes except in the case of 'smart partnerships'

Note : You do not want a 'one time cash and carry' business and suffer the consequences such as disreputation in the market!!

Pengeluaran Bon sebagai Alternatif Penstabilan Ekonomi - Nik Zafri

Nota ringkas ini lebih kepada haipotesis ekonomi dan pengarang tidak memberikan apa-apa jaminan kejayaan sekiranya haipotesis berikut digunapakai.

Pengeluaran bon untuk menstabilkan ekonomi juga dikenali sebagai Bon GDP- Gross Domestic Product. Reaksi balas yang berlaku apabila cadangan ini dikeluarkan ialah kenaikan faedah.

Apakah kelebihan dan kelemahan Pengeluaran Bon berkaitan GDP :

1. Servis Bon adalah tinggi dalam suasana pasaran sihat tetapi akan rendah apabila pasaran tidak sihat.

2. Bagi peminjam - pengeluaran ini akan menstabilkan perbelanjaan awam dan Kerajaan akan dapat servis apa-apa hutang semasa suasana pasaran yang sihat dan kurang memberikan servis hutang jika berlaku sebaliknya. Krisis hutang dan kegagalan membayar hutang akan dapat dikurangkan. Apabila ini berlaku, ianya akan membantu proses pemulihan.

3. Bagi pelabur - kerugian mungkin berlaku serentak dengan masalah gagal membayar hutang. Jadi, jika dibandingkan dengan bon konvensional, bon yang berkait dengan GDP dapat memastikan bayaran total yang leibh tinggi dan ini pastinya akan mengurangkan kebarangkalian kegagalan pembayaran hutang.

4. Kerajaan dapat membantu membiayai sektor yang berpotensi apabila bon berkait GDP dikeluarkan. Tidak mustahil, sektor yang baru atau sedang berkembang umpamanya industri pembuatan akan menyasarkan untuk disenaraikan dalam Bursa Malaysia kerana pengeluaran bon akan dapat memperbetulkan pasaran saham.

5. Pengeluaran bon ini juga akan dapat menambahbaik pasaran modal (terutamanya bon korporat - dalam kes di Malaysia - Bon ini dikeluarkan oleh GLC) Sektor korporat juga dapat mengurangkan kos dan menambahbaik kecukupan modal sekiranya bon ini diintegrasikan dalam struktur kewangan.

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ISSUANCE OF 'GDP-LINKED' BONDS

There has been some interesting stories I heard in the market about the intention of the Government to issue bonds to stabilize the economy. When plan of economic stabilization involves, these bonds are known as "GDP-linked"Just a short comment (I hope)

There are a number of things to talk about whenever anybody touched about GDP and linking it to bonds.But one of the most popular reactions would be the increasing interest in creating bonds.

1. Bond servicing is higher during rapid growth but lower if the growth is slow.

2. For borrowers - issuance may stabilize public spending as Government can service more debt during affordable times and less during difficulties. It is also said to lower down crisis of debts and defaults. When you reduce the service of country's debt during recession, it may help in the recovery process.

3. For investors - losses may happen due to defaults. Thus, comapred to the conventional bond, this kind of bond (GDP-linked) can ensure higher total payment hence reducing default probability (what am I saying? )

4. The Government can help in financing some potential sectors if GDP-linked bonds are issued. In theory, some emerging or new sectors (any industry esp. manufacturing) can target to be listed in the Bursa Malaysia if they wish as bond issuance can help correction in the stock market.

5. It also helps in improving capital market as well (esp. corporate bonds - in Malaysia's case - the bonds issued by GLC). The corporate sector can reduce cost and improve capital efficience once bonds are integrated into the financial stucture.