HEDGE FUND - PROPER REGULATIONS REQUIRED NOW!! (ALERT) - By Nik Zafri

Article 1 about Hedge Funds (Facebook Version) and Article 2 about Hedge Funds (Blogger Version)

Many disagreed with me at that time -- Yes...because it was written in 2009. (too early) - FYI - I was monitoring the European (EC) market at the time I wrote that article - I saw signs that there is a need to tighten up the loose ends especially on the subject hedge funds which I believe will become a talk in Malaysia (next week - May, 2010)
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Here's latest news from Singapore (Courtesy of Bloomberg) :

Singapore Reviews Hedge, PE Funds as Regulators Boost Oversight
By Netty Ismail

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore said it will review rules for its investment management industry, including hedge-fund and private-equity managers, as regulators increase oversight globally.

Hedge funds and private-equity firms are under scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers worldwide, who say they are partly to blame for the worst financial crisis in a generation. Singapore’s hedge-fund industry has grown into Asia’s second biggest behind Hong Kong as the government lured investment management professionals with tax incentives and grants.

Hedge funds worldwide posted net outflows of $285 billion last year, leaving assets at $1.6 trillion, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc., a Chicago-based research firm.

The regulator has set up the Investment Intermediaries Department to supervise intermediaries, including alternative investment managers, and to “drive regulatory policies” governing the industry, according to yesterday’s statement.

“MAS adopts an open and consultative approach with the industry, and remains committed to building Singapore as a fund management and alternative investment hub,” the regulator said.

World Effort

World leaders, including the Group of 20 countries that make up most of the world’s economy, have called for stricter oversight of the pools of private capital in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Funds won’t be able to get investment from U.S. banks, under proposals announced in January by President Barack Obama. The European Union’s Directive on Alternative Investment Fund Managers is currently being debated, with the European Parliament scheduled to vote on a final draft this year.

The “business and regulatory environment remains conducive to both traditional and alternative managers” in the city-state, MAS said.

MAS, also Singapore’s central bank, said last year it will fine-tune its “regulatory approach as appropriate,” after moves to make it easier for hedge funds to set up shop in Singapore than in other Asian cities such as Hong Kong and Tokyo helped fuel the industry’s growth in recent years.

Growing Industry

Hedge-fund managers are currently exempt from holding a capital-markets services license, provided they manage funds on behalf of 30 or fewer of what MAS describes as “qualified” investors. “I believe that the exempt fund-manager status should be replaced with light regulation,” said Albert Ee, founder of Singapore-based hedge-fund firm Pilgrim Partners Asia Pte. “As a financial centre, it’s important that hedge funds in Singapore should be run by experienced managers with good risk management processes and strong corporate governance.”

Singapore’s hedge-fund industry has grown to 138 single- strategy hedge-fund managers employing more than 800 professionals from near zero in 1997, according to a survey by the local chapter of the Alternative Investment Management Association. The industry oversees at least $34.9 billion, excluding assets managed by several of the large global firms, it said, making it Asia’s second biggest.

Local Rules

The island-state’s “lighter regulatory touch” has enabled hedge-fund managers to set up business “relatively quickly,” without risking any delay in getting the necessary licenses from the regulator, according to an overview of the industry published by AIMA.

Hedge-fund managers in Singapore are still subject to local rules on securities and futures trading as well as money laundering.

The size of Singapore’s asset management industry shrank about 26 percent to S$864 billion ($630 billion) in 2008 from a year earlier because of the global financial crisis, the authority said in its latest survey released in September.

--Editors: Andreea Papuc
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Nik Zafri's 'Unqualified' Comments (so don't quote me on this)

Yeap, I think Singapore is going somewhere. I did mentioned in one of my 'analysis' that Singapore will boom first and followed by Malaysia. But most definitely; as I said; this issue will become the next talk, next week (May 2010) So, just in case...

On Hedge Funds - fellas, I am not against it - Here's some excerpts :

Excerpt 1

I still think that Malaysia (in particular SC) should keep a close surveillance by having a revised version of regulations to monitor private equity company's especially.

Excerpt 2

European policymakers said:

"They (Hedge Fund Managers) many have exacerbated it by fueling bubbles with leveraged investments in the good times and then offloading assets by the bucket-load in the bad times"

Excerpt 3

Initial proposal from Nik Zafri to anyone out there reading my blog - who wish to listen :

You (Hedge Fund Managers) must first reveal your plan :

(To the proper authorities..I don't know..maybe SC, Inland Revenue, BNM) on:

a) managing level of capital,
b) managing risk,
c) valuation of assets and most important
d) your strategy in doing business.

2nd - STOP NOW if you're involved in any trade relating to MONEY LAUNDERING!! (so, is this the thing you're being discreet about?) Get out now before it's too late!

3rd - It's time to pay based on gains not losses!! Otherwise, we will go back to square 1...make money during down market..gosh...

Having this sort of regulations may help our economic recovery further but of course if the regulations are not strict enough and having loopholes...definitely there can be abuse - some people in the market will always creatively found a way to do 'evasive maneuvers'

FDI, GLOBAL BONDS, PRIVATIZATION ETC. ETC. (SNEAK PREVIEW BY NIK ZAFRI)

Excerpts from Bernama :

October 23, 2009 18:25 PM

BUDGET: Companies Under MOF Inc And Other Viable Agencies To Be Privatised

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 23 (Bernama) -- The government will gradually reduce its involvement in economic activities, particularly in areas where it is competing with the private sector, said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

Najib, who is also the Finance Minister said to ensure this, the government will privatise companies under the Minister of Finance Inc (MOF Inc) and other viable government agencies.

"The second wave of privatisation will aim to enable the companies and agencies to operate more efficiently and expand their activities.

"This will reduce their financial dependence on the government," he said when unveiling the Budget 2020 in Parliament on Friday.

According to Najib,the public-private collaboration would be enhanced to enable the private sector to spearhead economic growth.

"High impact projects by the private sector will be undertaken jointly with the government.

"The role of government is to facilitate the provision of basic infrastructure to ensure project viablily," he said.

Among the projects to be implemented in 2010 include the development of an Integrated Customs and Quarantine Complekx (CIQ) in Bukit Kayu Hitam, construction of six UITM campuses and the development of the Matrade Centre.

Najib said the private sector contribution in driving the economy would be intensified.

Towards this end, he said the government would give priority to enhancing domestic investment while encouraging local companies abroad to remit their profits and reinvest in the country.

Currently, he said the nation faced stiff competition from neighbouring countries in attracting limited foreign direct investments (FDI).

As such, he said aggressive and inovative measures must be taken, to attract and increase FDI inflow.

On another note, the Prime Minister said the government would address structural issues to provide a more conducive business environment and be a market-oriented economy.

On this, he said, local authorities would take immediate steps to facilitate registration of businesses and expedite the issuance of development orders.

He said the government had established two Commercial Division Courts to expedite the hearing of commercial cases and resolve them within nine months, compared with a longer duration previously.

"To ensure an effective delivery system, individuals and companies are only required to use a single reference number in their dealings with government agencies.

"For individuals, the initiative known as MyID, uses the MyKad number, while for companies, the MyCoID utilises the Companies Commission of Malaysia (CCM) business registration number," he explained.

On the shift towards a high-income economy, Najib said: "We need a strong foundation in research, development and commercialisation (R&D&C) activities."

Therefore, he disclosed, to strengthen R&R&C activities, the government among others will undertake measures to rationalise all research funds and grants to be more effective to achieve set targets.

The government will also establish a National Innovation Centre supported by a network of innovation excellence centres under the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation in collaboration with the Ministry of Higher Education.

Other measures include integrating R&D activities with patents, copyrights and trademarks registration to ensure R&D&C processes are implemented more effectively while providing small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with a tax deduction on expenses incurred in the registration of patents and trademarks in the country.

The cooperation between patent and research agencies will expedite the commercialisation of research findings.

-- BERNAMA
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Nik Zafri's comments :

At the current state, I boldly say, Malaysia have enough domestic savings to finance private investment. But to mobilize the private sector further, there is also a need to increased access to foreign savings. This is true that based on my findings since mid 90s, private sector have boosted up its funds in global equity markets.

I foresee the 2nd wave of privatization can lead to growth in portfolio equity investment and FDI.

After Malaysia decided to :

a) relax/liberalize the foreign equity participation (for FDI - it's still on case to case basis) and
b) Disbanding of FIC by EPU,

2nd wave of privatization is now relevant and paving its way, I foresee there is a possiblity of growth in foreign investors portfolio equity investment.

We can also expect to see growth in :

a) international fund managers (few have established Islamic funds currently)
b) more foreign stock brokerage,
c) futures brokerage
d) hiring of foreign dealers,

(some are owning 100%!! So, what's the fuss?? I think perhaps information is not properly transmitted.)

To me 2nd wave of privatization is also an indicator of Government's efforts & commitment to encourage private sector development.

This will also lead to reduction of fiscal deficit and less intervention of government in economy.

Newly privatized firms is expected to be able to finance their investment by having better access to equity markets and private debts.

On global bond issue, the best statement so far I see is from BNM's Governor Tan Sri Dr. Zeti in Bloomberg interview -who said clearly that Malaysia should make a comeback to the global bond market after 8 years of 'dissapearance' whether in conventional or sukuk bonds.
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So, now, having said the abovementioned, what would be the setbacks?

The usuals - political stability - one of the most key points that foreign investment will look into...I ain't saying anything but I'm sure everyone knows about it - with only one click. It's so difficult to get everyone to agree to play a one game plan. Even the plan has been agreed uninanimously, it is still subject to scrapping.

2nd most important - the bumiputera issue. Most sensitive. More participation is required

Let's say If the plan goes well, the growth will provide a bigger pie for everyone even the bumis.

But again, this is only my personal opinion.

TALAM CORPORATION BERHAD
Symbol & Code : TALAM (2259) Board : Main Industry : Properties

Put aside politics and please do not read this article if you're think I'm into politics. No way!

Taking over Talam by the Selangor Government with Tan Sri Khalid at helm for debt recovery exercise is something unexpected by many quarters.

I was curious during the preliminary stage of takeover of Talam with so much debts, disgruntled buyers of stalled housing projects, negative rumours and speculations, PN17 etc. but yet why did Tan Sri decided that this is fine by his standards? I think everyone knows who Tan Sri is and how vast is his corporate experience in the market (yes, I did take that into account as well - I noticed the familiar management styles are still maintained)

So, I keep monitoring with some assistance from friends (analysts) then, things started to move, I must say, I'm quite impressed - in such a short time - they keep the good things coming, I now see prospects of turnaround.

1) Selangor Government recovered RM50mil of the RM391.7mil owed to Talam and the money will be channelled via Qardhul Hassan Islamic Banking - an Islamic mechanisme to assist the poor among others - teaching them business and managing money via microcredit schemes.

2) 10% set aside for sand mining project

3) Bonus for more than 6500 village heads

4) Efforts to solve problems of abandoned projects by working together with private sector and government and form up a special task force, (some have been solved!! - yes there will still be dissatisfied buyers but at least something has been done which is better than nothing at all)

5) entering agreement with Menteri Besar Selangor (Inc) to settle RM241.4mil owing to the latter via disposal of properties and RM12.7mil cash - settlement is expected within six months.



Ok..is everything in order?

No...not necessarily.

I browse through the corporate website and found out whatever I've written herein or in the dailies are not included in their 'annoucement' (or was it Newsroom?)

I wonder why....news of this magnitude should have been updated in their website as the investors are looking into it but again Talam may have other strategies.

a) Low profile?
b) Sleeping giant awaiting for the right time to wake up?
c) or just too busy to update?

Whatever the case maybe, Talam is worth monitoring.

CHINA COMING DOWN? NO WAY!! - NIK ZAFRI



This is up to 2005...look at the figures..you all can calculate - can you not?


Once again, some speculators are trying to 'underestimate' China. Last time it was Dubai - now it goes further. The 'bubbly' thing again...there will be bubble in China? What would they think of next? Relive the decoupling theory?

Some people didn't read figures or not bothered with figures and I find this less surprising as these so-called forecasters are not from China. I do not know if the speculators have actually been in China to see for themselves what's happening - US bluechips are coming into China even GM besides than Hewlett Packard & Intel.

Memory serves - In 2009 - China's GDP almost 14% - and this surprised every major banks of the world!! - this year 2010 - it's gonna get BIGGER. The figures originally forecasted by "smart Alexes" were a lot lower and now - they are wrong and still wrong!

One thing I can tell you all that most developing East Asia countries like to stay 'below radar detection' - not to distract too much publicity. China is definitely one of them. They are actually much bigger (as big as Russia) than the formal economists estimation or calculations.

It would not be proper for me to say that China will stay strong in its growth; as well as to other EA countries as well. There may still be minor subprime mortgage crisis elements (I'm saying 'maybe') but China will emerge.

One thing I learn from China's economic aspirations is that the conventional economics 'supply and demand' + 'equilibrium' or 'elasticity' point of view still work on them - where there should be less government intervention (not that we do not need them at all) but to let the market correct by itself. I also share the following views :

a) that (accurate) data collection, analysis and action plan based on these datum are so important,

b) organizations must adopt true corporate governance principles - that is....transparency,

c) bribery must be reduced or better - eliminated!,

d) all taxes must be paid,

e) Work attitude need to be changed - not the system - the system is fine. Don't come out with good figures or window dressings to impress the top management or to get stimulus packages but come out with the REAL figures based on data collection & analysis.

f) Wireless technology/e-commerce/B2B/B2C and all the likes are assets not foes.

g) White Collar Crimes need to be reduced - not on the dumb ones/scapegoats/pawns but on the 'smart ones' abusing their skills

PIAWAIAN SUMBER TENAGA DAN KAWALAN EMISI KARBON

Oleh Nik Zafri Abdul Majid - Januari, 2010

Seluruh dunia kini sedang memberikan perhatian yang serius kepada isu emisi karbon. Secara rambang hampir seluruh premis di dunia menyumbang kepada 50% penggunaan tenaga - ini termasuklah Malaysia. Isu emisi karbon dijangka akan mencetuskan pula fokus kepada kod dan piawaian tenaga - ini bermakna jika kita tidak mempunyai kod/piawaian atau ada kod piawaian tetapi tidak mencukupi, maka usaha untuk menaikkan taraf kod/piawaian yang sedia ada atau mewujudkan kod/piawaian yang lebih komprehensif perlu diadakan.

Mewujudkan atau menaiktaraf kod/piawaian adalah selaras dengan cadangan YB Dato' Seri Ong Ka Ting, Menteri Sumber Asli dan Alam Sekitar dalam Mesyuarat ke 3, Penggal 2, Parlimen 12 yang meminta satu pelan induk perlu digariskan oleh Kerajaan Malaysia untuk memastikan paras pengeluaran karbon di Malaysia benar-benar tidak menaik dan dapat dikawal sehingga ianya tidak lebih daripada paras tahun 2005 menjelang satu tempoh masa daripada sekarang.

Setakat artikel ini ditulis, saya mendapati satu standard (pada asalnya diterbitkan pada tahun 2004) dikenali sebagai 90.1 iaitu piawaian ASHRAE memberikan satu panduan untuk mencapai 30% penjimatan tenaga (draf standard ini dijangka terbit pada bila-bila masa dalam tahun 2010. Selain itu, standard seperti LEEDS (Green Building) and EMS ISO 14000 juga boleh dijadikan panduan kepada kawalan emisi karbon menerusi penjimatan tenaga.

Standard ini begitu penting pada Malaysia sebagai langkah awal mengawal pembaziran tenaga di samping emisi karbon. Jabatan Alam Sekitar, Jabatan Keselamatan dan Kesihatan Pekerjaan, Suruhanjaya Tenaga dsb. juga boleh bekerjasama dalam mewujudkan standard yang dimaksudkan.

Antara perkara-perkara yang boleh diambilkira ialah :

a) Keperluan penggunaan peralatan penyejuk (cooling/refrigeration) dan pemanas (heater/heating equipments) dalam semua jenis industri termasuk rumah kediaman yang mungkin berbeza mengikut cuaca/iklim negara berkenaan. Justifikasi cadangan saya ini ialah menghala kepada kesan ekonomi penggunaan peralatan berkenaan serta cara-cara penjimatan boleh dilakukan ke atas peralatan contohnya mengadakan alat penjimat tenaga secara 'built-in' kepada peralatan yang dimaksudkan.

b) Perkara-perkara yang kompleks seperti syarat-syarat untuk mendapat Sijil Layak Menduduki sesebuah bangunan juga perlu diambilkira - contohnya memberikan kelulusan kepada mereka yang mengutamakan penjimatan tenaga dan penjagaan alam sekitar atau konsep 'bangunan hijau' mengikut standard yang berkaitan.

c) Latihan, siri-siri ceramah dsb. bagi memastikan kefahaman atau mencetuskan kesedaran masyarakat atau kakitangan betapa pentingnya tahap emisi karbon dan penjimatan tenaga kepada mereka dalam bentuk wang ringgit.

Saya berharap agar standard/piawaian tenaga yang bakal dikeluarkan akan mengketengahkan syarat-syarat yang agak ketat supaya ianya dipatuhi demi trend semasa pasaran global dan suasana ekonomi yang sedang mengalami perubahan dalam konteks pembekalan tenaga.

Carbon Emission/Standards Malaysia need to come out with Master Plan and Codes of Practice on Carbon Emission/Energy Savings Agree but all parties must cooperate with the Government Disagree - our country is not at the critical level yet view results

PELAN PERNIAGAAN

Kajian : Nik Zafri (Kajian asal 1998)

Pelan perniagaan yang baik ialah yang berwibawa, mudah difahami dan menarik perhatian golongan sasaran yang tidak begitu biasa dengan sesuatu jenis perniagaan. Walaubagaimanapun, pelan perniagaan tidak menjamin kejayaan tetapi ianya dapat meminimakan kegagalan.

Fakta :

1) Terdiri dari sasaran perniagaan - justifikasi kenapa ianya boleh dicapai dan bagaimana untuk mencapainya

2) Mempunyai maklumat organisasi yang akan memastikan sasaran ini tercapai
2.1) Antara sasaran yang penting ialah sasaran kewangan - ramalan keuntungan dengan analisa yang logik

3) Untuk semua jenis organisasi - tidak kira kerajaan mahupun swasta tetapi mempunyai sasaran kewangan yang berbeza.

3.1) Kerajaan/sektor awam/agensi biasanya menumpukan kepada keseimbangan KPI dan marjin atau 'mengoptimakan 'revenue' (hasil bersih ditolak perbelanjaan selepas pembekalan perkhidmatan - umpamanya kutipan cukai, fi perkhidmatan dsb)

4) Juga dipanggil pelan pemasaran. Dalam konteks ini, kadangkala pelan perniagaan atau pelan pemasaran biasanya diaplikasikan bukan sahaja sebelum perancangan membuka sesuatu perniagaan tetapi juga semasa operasi contohnya dalam kes pengenalan kepada produk baru, penjenamaan dan diversifikasi perniagaan.

5) Perlu ditumpukan kepada faktor luaran dan faktor dalaman.
5.1) Faktor Luaran - pemegang saham, pelanggan, pengguna sasaran.
5.2) Faktor Dalaman - komunikasi, latihan dan pembangunan, dasar, objektif, pengurusan strategik, analisa pemasaran, sumber manusia, 'balance scorecard', produk/perkhidmatan, sumber (seperti ICT, Pejabat dll) dll.

5) Dalam faktor 4 di atas, terdapat juga lain-lain pelan yang dipanggil pelan operasi. Bergantung kepada jenis perniagaan/industri - contohnya pembinaan, kadangkala ianya dipanggil sebagai Pelan Kualiti Pembinaan yang menjadi salah satu syarat kontrak oleh pihak Klien kepada Kontraktor Utama.

6) Pelan perniagaan merupakan mekanisma membuat keputusan. Sebenarnya tidak ada sebarang format khusus kerana ianya bergantung kepada siapakah golongan sasaran dan jenis objektif yang telah dirancang.

7) Paling popular, pelan perniagaan diperlukan untuk tujuan mendapatkan pinjaman (jenis pelbagai) atau pembiayaan (contohnya pembiayaan ekuiti) dari institusi perbankan dan kewangan - di mana penumpuan diberikan kepada cara dan keupayaan pembayaran kembali, sumber yang sediada, prospek pembangunan, faktor persaingan dan 'market survival' dll.

8) Penyediaan pelan perniagaan memerlukan pelbagai kemahiran, pengetahuan dan pengalaman untuk memastikan keberkesanann jenis disiplin perniagaan yang dihuraikan. Antara perkara yang diutamakan ialah kewangan, sumber manusia, harta intelek, rantaian pembekalan (supply chain), operasi dan pemasaran.

9) Cara persembahan yang sesuai

9.1) format persembahan mestilah ringkas, menarik dan munasabah - penumpuan kepada ringkasan eksekutif, graf, ringkasan kewangan, KPI/Objektif, perkhidmatan/produk (demonstrasi jika perlu) dll yang perlu
9.2) 'pitching' suara yang sesuai - fakta lisan yang dipersembahkan mestilah dapat menarik perhatian pembiaya, pelanggan dan rakan kongsi.
9.3) persembahan yang berjaya biasanya akan menarik interaksi yang positif - ini biasanya adalah satu tanda kejayaan dalam sesuatu persembahan,
9.4) Siapkan salinan ringkas persembahan untuk pembiaya, pelanggan dan rakan kongsi supaya mereka dapat merujuksilang di samping melihat persembahan
9.5) Semakin tinggi pengetahuan mereka yang mempersembahkan, semakin tinggi prospek kejayaan persembahan berkenaan.

Struktur tipikal pelan perniagaan (pra-perniagaan)
- muka hadapan dan kandungan, ringkasan eksekutif, keterangan perniagaan, analisa persekitaran, latarbelakang industri, analisa persaingan, analisa pemasaran, pelan pemasaran, pelan operasi, faktor pengurusan, kewangan dan lampiran/jadual.

12 November 2009, 10:00 AM EST

The economic rebound in East Asia and the Pacific has been surprisingly swift and very welcome, but take China out of the equation and the regional picture is less rosy, says the World Bank's half-yearly assessment of the economic health of the East Asia and Pacific region.

Ivailo Izvorski, Lead Economist and author of the report, and Vikram Nehru, Chief Economist for the East Asia and Pacific region, were online on Thursday, November 12 to answer your questions.

NIK ZAFRI ABDUL MAJID: I beg to differ with the statement. I think growth are quite moderate but progressing in East Asia (EA) and Pacific Region. We're still shocked by the 2009 global financial crisis and very careful in making critical decisions. The impacts of the recent global financial crisis did affect the stability in the cost of living, policies concerning eradication of poverty and most importantly employment. I'm talking about soon to be developed countries such as Malaysia - not to mention the underdeveloped ones. Even if China is included, the slow growth in the neighbouring countries have somehow affect the industrial production and export.

My question :

Is there a posibility that the World Bank amend its current fiscal strategy on Pacific and EA by focussing on the underdeveloped countries first rather than the developed and potentially developed ones? (These are the countries that are really needing to receive advise/consultancy from WB in terms of infrastructure investments and socio-economic matters. If they are affected, even China and India won't sustain long)

http://www.nikzafri.blogspot.com

Vikram Nehru: Dear Nik Zafri – the World Bank doesn’t concentrate on poor or rich countries, it concentrates on the poor. When measured at the $1.25 a day international poverty line, there are more poor in the middle income countries of East Asia than there are in the region’s low income countries!! In many large middle income countries (China and India included), some provinces are bigger than most countries, and these provinces have very high poverty rates. The Bank’s objective is a world without poverty – and to achieve that, we must work equally hard in low income and middle income countries alike.



Mr. Vikram Nehru is the Director for Poverty Reduction, Economic Management, and Private and Financial Sector Development and Acting Chief Economist in the East Asia Region of the World Bank. Earlier he was Director of the World Bank’s Economic Policy and Debt Department – the department responsible for covering developing country macroeconomic and debt issues, including growth diagnostics, sub-national development, fiscal analysis, HIPC implementation, low income country debt sustainability, and middle income country debt dynamics. An Indian national, Mr. Nehru completed his graduate and postgraduate degrees at Oxford University before working with the Government of India for four years. He began his career with the World Bank in 1981 through the Young Professionals Program. Since then, he has worked in several capacities and on a number of countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Ghana, and China. His latest papers cover such issues as exogenous shocks, debt sustainability, and the development challenges in Indonesia and China. He has also had extensive research experience on issues of economic growth, capital stock measurement, financial sector policy, industrial and trade policy, and on the implications of global trends and developments on the economic prospects of developing countries.

THE SUN NEVER SETS ON DUBAI WORLD?

According to their website, Dubai World is Dubai's flag bearer in global investments. As a holding company it operates a highly diversified spectrum of industrial segments and plays a major role in the emirate's rapid economic growth. Its primary aim is to play the role of a growth engine that powers development both locally and internationally.

Dubai World's investment spans four strategic growth areas of 21st Century commerce namely, Transport & Logistics, Drydocks & Maritime, Urban Development and Investment & Financial Services.

Its portfolio comprises some of the world’s best known companies and a number of outstanding projects. This includes DP World, one of the largest marine terminal operators in the world; Drydocks World & Dubai Maritime City designed to turn Dubai into a major ship-building and maritime hub; Economic Zones World which operates several free zones around the world including Jafza and TechnoPark in Dubai; Nakheel the property developer behind iconic projects such as The Palm Islands and The World among others; Limitless the international real estate master planner with current development projects in various parts of the world; Leisurecorp a global sports and leisure investment group, reshaping the industry by unlocking value across investment, development and brand opportunities; Dubai World Africa which oversees the regional development and portfolio of investments in the African continent.; and Istithmar World, the group's investment arm that has a global footprint in finance, capital, leisure, aviation and various other business ventures.

By the looks of the above statement, I don't think one big entity like this can fall in one day just because of one story about debts.... I believe this issue is about some financial deal that didn't go well. Dubai World, as I know it is one place where the organization will try to safeguard their reputation and they will put their best effort to ensure that whatever problems they have will be solved amicably - YES..even with the banks and creditors. As I speak now, I'm sure Dubai World plans on heavy corporate debt restructuring as they have assets that are worth a lot more than their debts.

I know that there have been denials by the emirate's goverment that the conglomerage had long operated as a standalone entity but again a project of this magnitude will definitely in the knowledge of the government - otherwise it wouldn't exist!! Yes, some analysts (or speculators) proudly saying that banks will suffer but I think the statement is incorrect.Lemme put it straight, banks (esp. in Abu Dhabi) can still ABSORB such losses.

After this news broke out, stocks in UAE plunged but I think it's temporary. But one senior official of the Dubai Government was too hasty in giving out statements and denials...I think he should rethink his statements again.

Being in Malaysia, I've read MUCHabout Dubai World that has always been (as still would be) the future hub for finance and tourism in the region.

Back to Dubai World's plan on CDRC, by the looks of it, the situation of 'plunging' is temporary. Every investor is waiting clarification not dumping the stocks. Restructuring of $26 billion (USD) and $6 billion sukuk bond are not petty deals. I'm sure the banks will find this a good deal and they will see the stocks jumps up the next few days and Dubai World will back on its feet.

Global effects???? NO...I don't think so.

"THE SUN NEVER SETS ON DUBAI WORLD"
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STOP PRESS

When I wrote this article today - December 2nd, 2009 and posted it on Facebook, this is what I got back from UAE :

Syed Muhammad SyedAbdullah Al-Husayni wrote :

Assalaamua'aleykum Habeeb Nik, I think this is the 1st time I wrote on your wall. Never had much time. Yes, I agree with your opinion on Dubai World. I also think that the current recovery of oil prices (>USD76/barrel) despite the weakening dollar will assist recovery. I just receive news that UAE esp. Abu Dhabi is helping Dubai. We are also expecting commodities and equities market will be correcting. I don't know if you read the latest news, Dubai World has successfully dealt with the banks as you have predicted. And you are right too - now FTSE has risen - almost 2.0%. Keep up the writing and Shukran from me - a distant relative.

My response was :

Wa'alaikumussalam Sayyid. Thank you for your valuable comments. I think everyone is being matured nowadays...they don't panic easily. Yes, I have also received words saying that Dubai World has managed to calm the market.May I also concur with you on your views regarding oil prices but with all due respect, I think commodity and equity may only serves as back-up in case the other plans fail...am I right? Keep commenting...

Your distant brother

Nik Zafri

Read it all on Facebook

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Nik Zafri says :SEE...I TOLD YOU SO!!!

SOURCE

Dubai's $10B bailout by Abu Dhabi calms fears


AP - Two men talk to each other as they look to the Gate building, center, of the Dubai International ...


Abu Dhabi feeds Dubai $10 billion to cover debt on deadline, calming financial worries for now - By Adam Schreck, AP Business Writer - On 2:22 pm EST, Monday December 14, 2009

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- Oil-rich Abu Dhabi pumped $10 billion into its indebted neighbor Monday, sending stocks soaring while sparing Dubai and the rest of the Emirates federation the humiliation of an imminent default by one of the struggling Arab boomtown's star companies.

The bailout was about more than petrodollar transfers from one United Arab Emirates sheikdom to the other. Dubai officials seized on the news to try to repair damage done by weeks of uncertainty stemming from their unwillingness to fully stand behind Dubai World as the conglomerate looked to restructure some of its $60 billion in debts.

Investors cheered Monday's news. Dubai's main index shot up 10.4 percent at the close and markets elsewhere rose modestly.

Prior to the crisis, most investors had assumed the Dubai government itself, possibly with Abu Dhabi's help, would guarantee debts amassed by its chief growth engine.

Dubai authorities are scrambling to reshape the business hub's battered image, vowing that the city-state is committed to "transparency, good governance and market principles." Officials outlined a new legal framework that promised to increase openness and protect creditors in future dealings with the conglomerate, offering lenders succor in a country where formal bankruptcy proceedings are largely untested.

"We are here today to reassure investors, financial and trade creditors, employees and our citizens that our government will act at all times in accordance with market principles and internationally accepted business practices," Sheik Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, chairman of the Dubai supreme fiscal committee, said in a statement.

Some $4.1 billion of the funds released Monday will go toward meeting a deadline to repay Islamic bonds issued by Dubai World's Nakheel property arm. The conglomerate, whose sprawling holdings range from the oceanliner Queen Elizabeth 2 to luxury retailer Barney's New York, will use the rest.

The move, however, carries broader implications as UAE officials have looked to assure the market the country's economy was on solid ground. Their assurances gave voice to a silent concern that the whole country would be hit by the same investor mistrust that Dubai now faces.

The bailout bought Dubai, itself saddled with more than $80 billion in debts including Dubai World's, time it desperately needs.

"This is a very significant development," said Marios Maratheftis, head of regional research at Standard Chartered Bank. "It shows once again there is a one-country approach in dealing with the crisis, which is positive."

But it was unclear if the news -- assurances and funding alike -- would prove to be more than a temporary salve.

Standard & Poor's, which along with other credit rating agencies has aggressively cut its outlook on Dubai state-run companies, called Monday's move "a step towards rebuilding confidence." But it warned that the government's ability to bail out other firms remains uncertain.

Fitch Ratings, another credit agency, also urged caution, saying Abu Dhabi's bailout was "tactical in nature as opposed to a reversal of recent rhetoric regarding state support."

Abu Dhabi, which controls the UAE's presidency, has directly and indirectly provided Dubai with $25 billion over the past year, mostly by buying Dubai bonds. In all, Dubai's known debts are roughly equal to its total economic output last year. The full extent of its liabilities is uncertain, however, with some analysts putting the total at $100 billion or more.

The aid package is key for Dubai, which despite its international celebrity has little of the oil wealth held by Abu Dhabi. Dubai's ruler is the UAE's vice president and prime minister.

Dubai created Dubai World -- which has interests in seaports, real estate, tourism and retail -- to diversify its economy and boost its international clout. Much of the growth was fueled by easy credit. As the bills came due, the emirate struggled to repay as its economy was battered by the global economic downturn.

Nakheel, a property developer and hotel operator best known for building manmade islands in the shape of palm trees and a map of the world off Dubai's coast, was among those Dubai World companies that relied heavily on that easy money.

Plenty of questions remain, especially as Dubai works to salvage its reputation and the conglomerate tries to deal with the rest of its debts.

Dubai World, while welcoming the financial support, said it was nonetheless pushing ahead with talks to convince lenders to agree to a "standstill" -- effectively a delay -- on repaying part of its debt.

"This announcement constitutes a specific bailout of Nakheel, suggesting that as an entity (it) was deemed to be 'too big to fail,'" said Fahd Iqbal, a Dubai-based analyst at Middle East investment bank EFG-Hermes. "It does not, however, constitute a bailout of Dubai Inc. or Dubai World as a whole and this is important to highlight."

Officials introduced a reorganization law that could be used in case Dubai World is "unable to achieve an acceptable restructuring of its remaining obligations."

A person close to the Dubai government said the new law provided a legal framework for addressing corporate debt, though it did not mean a bankruptcy filing by state-owned companies was certain.

"The current bankruptcy law is untested," the person said, insisting on anonymity as a condition for briefing reporters on a conference call. "Dubai World needed a legal process to go through. The government was very focused on creating something that would be fair and transparent to everybody."

It was not immediately clear what, if anything, Abu Dhabi would expect in exchange for Monday's funding. Analysts had said an Abu Dhabi bailout could result in it exerting greater influence on its high profile neighbor going forward.

But the individual close to the Dubai government said the money came with no strings attached.

"Let me be clear: Dubai has not given anything up. There have been no conditions on the funding," he said.

Nik Zafri says :

I like the following article...very honest and very transparent analysis...

Although the article may be the thing of the past (so it seems) but I wish all bankers, investors, newly listed companies, speculators and analysts, economists etc. etc. to read the following article...

Be alert for some strong words but back up with solid facts.

We may take certain reminders so that we shouldn't be over excited of the current market performance but in fact, start working harder to continually improve them (stop sitting in the comfortable zone (not yet)

Also my reminder to all, stop playing the old record by saying that the high quantity of listing/IPOs indicates that the economy is going to be fine...it's the quality that we're talking here NOT quantity.

I think 'designation' of certain stocks by authorities should come in handy - perhaps the right time....but designating stocks should be packaged with clear regulations

Recession-struck Asia to face IPO shortage in 2009

Depressed equity prices, a spreading global recession and increasing risk-aversion among investors are likely to kill the motivation for Asia Pacific companies to be audacious enough to launch IPOs in 2009. The IPO pipeline, which had dried towards the end of 2008, will probably completely shut in the first half of 2009 and the most optimistic are now only hoping that stability will return to stock prices and that a few listings will follow in the second half of the year.

There have been several jumbo IPOs in the Asia Pacific over the past few years through to the first half of 2008. The drivers of this supply were Indian and Chinese companies taking advantage of continued economic growth and investor enthusiasm for exposure in the rising fortunes of the developing world.

This gung-ho mentality was sadly short-lived as these companies’ post-listing performances were disastrous, inflation touched new highs with the advent of recession and the financial sector collapsed under the weight of sub-prime problems.

The pain was particularly felt in the second half of 2008 and IPOs were postponed or completely culled as stock prices and indices plummeted and the probability of raising new money through issuing shares at reasonable valuations completely bit the dust.

A continuation of this surrender to the gloom in global markets is likely to ensure that companies keen on deleveraging will focus on raising equity via secondary placements or private stake sales rather than venture out with IPOs, said bankers.

The outlook for IPOs at least for the first half of 2009 is bleak,” said Simon Cox, head of syndicate at UBS Australia. “Most investors who have cash see enough opportunities in secondary markets every day and are not willing to be tempted to take risk in unknown companies by participating in an IPO unless they are priced very attractively. As a result, companies hardly have any motive to sell into this kind of environment which will kill supply in 2009.”

Signs of a prolonged slowdown in IPO activity are already evident. The Chinese IPO market, the region’s busiest for several years, had a slow start in 2009. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has still kept the domestic A-share market shut and only two tiny companies have listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange – the HK$250m (US$32.2m) IPO of mainland oil, petroleum and petrochemical trader Strong Petrochemical and the HK$63m float of China Singyes Solar Technologies.

There is one deal, though, that holds the hopes of all the companies looking to raise new equity. Chinese gold miner Real Gold Mining is braving the market with a US$150m deal and, though the defensive nature of gold could spur some demand, not many are willing to bet on the deal’s success.

Even if it is a success, bankers expect the Chinese IPO market to remain quiet in the first half and to show signs of recovery at best in the second half because of uncertainty about the direction of the global economy. “By that time (mid-year), people should be able to get a more solid view on the global economy and the mere hope of recovery could push up the stock markets and invigorate the IPO market,” said a banker.

When that happens, the infrastructure sector and companies in the retail business segment could be favoured as likely anti-recessionary candidates. “Investors remain picky and they would be only willing to put their money in India or China’s infrastructure and retail which are still considered growth sectors given possibilities demands of their huge populations will continue,” said another banker.

The Chinese government is set to invest Rmb4trn (US$584.4bn) in the country’s infrastructure sector in the next few years and is determined to maintain an 8% GDP growth by supporting domestic demand. India has similar plans to augment its infrastructure and support GDP growth.

The deals that may hit the market, however, would be modestly sized and the super jumbos are likely to be few and far between.

The only known candidate for a jumbo IPO is Agricultural Bank of China, which has plans for a US$20bn–$30bn A/H IPO in 2010. In October last year, Agricultural Bank of China received a US$19bn cash injection from the Chinese government to remove bad debts from its balance sheet and strengthen its capital base before going public. The bank transformed itself into a shareholding company in mid-January and is said to be looking at a Hong Kong and Shanghai IPO.

The Indian market is expected to remain somnolent during the first half as India gears up for its 2009 general elections. The elections are expected in May 2009. Prior to that, the Indian government is unlikely to push forward with any of its privatisations.

What little activity there is now is focused on CB buybacks with Reliance Communications and Jubilant Organosys among those quietly buying back CBs.

“In the Indian context, the market is bound to be turbulent pre-elections. It’s going to be difficult to do any deals. Post elections around June or July, hopefully, the markets will stabilise a bit and we could start seeing companies desperate to raise cash tapping the market in the fourth quarter,” said one Indian ECM banker.

And that is likely to be the trend in the rest of the region. Within South-East Asia, ECM activity will be driven primarily by recapitalisations, particularly within the FIG and real estate sectors, largely through rights issues. South-East Asian issuers tend to be family or major shareholder dominated, and rights issues backed by promoters will continue to be the prevailing trend.

“We are waiting for more rights issues out of Singapore. People are looking at issuers like CapitaLand, CapitaCommercial Trust and CapitaMall Trust to tap the market and we expect more fundraising within the REIT space. Our visibility for IPOs in SEA is minimal, so I definitely think it will be secondary fund raising and recapitalisations,” said another banker.

Although the past few months have been desolate for ECM bankers, there could be a pick-up in equity issuance towards the second half of 2009 as issuers find themselves faced with no funding alternatives.

“The IPO market is dead…The rescue rights or rescue placements in Europe will probably follow through to Asia, but Asian issuers have to swallow their pride first and take the decision to issue equity. If debt markets remain closed, they will have no choice, at some point the penny will drop,” said one Hong Kong-based Southeast Asian banker.

In Korea, the healthy IPO pipeline has imploded with first life insurers and then construction firms falling off the map. A market plunge, where the Kospi drifted below 1,000 for the first time in three years, and a subsequent liquidity squeeze has set a bleak tone for 2009 and bankers are struggling to find candidates to come to the market.

If markets were to improve, bankers think it will be the life insurers that will return first with Tongyang Life Insurance regarded as the most likely candidate. Tongyang Life came close to listing last summer but was forced to pull the deal at the last moment and has since renewed its listing filing twice with the latest deadline extended to August.

Bankers are not confident that Tongyang Life can meet that timetable but they suggested that if the deal could get done this year then other life insurers like Kumho Life and Mirae Asset Life would follow.

Also on bankers’ radars are a string of deals from Hyundai-related companies with Hyundai Motor rumoured to be considering spinning off Hyundai Card and Hyundai Capital while Hyundai Group considers a listing of Hyundai Logistics and Hyundai Home Shopping.

Bankers said that although the Hyundai deals inflated their pipeline, the execution of such deals would depend on whether the Hyundai Group was willing to use its cash piles to support the businesses and avoid a listing.

“The problem with a lot of the listing candidates is that they are backed by Korea’s industry giants and conglomerates. There is no real urgency to get these firms to the market,” one banker noted.

That argument can probably be best applied to the listing plans of Korea’s construction firms, including Posco Engineering and Construction and Lotte Engineering and Construction and Hyundai Engineering and Construction, which were all expected to list in 2008/2009 but have recently reversed those plans. Bankers blamed the cancellation of their listing plans on a strategic decision to lean more heavily on their chaebol relationships than the public markets.

And in Australia it will be difficult to see any IPOs being done in 2009, especially after the few that got done in 2008 were disastrous for investors. BrisConnections which did a huge IPO in 2008 saw its partially paid A$1 shares falling to a record low of A$0.001 post-listing. IvanHoe Mines also did one that was the year’s second largest IPO but are trading way below their issue price.

Against that background, reviving investor confidence for IPOs will be difficult.

“There could be opportunities of IPOs by diversified companies demerging to realise value in specific units or even venture capital/private equity selling off stakes but those deals in this depressed environment will have to be priced relatively cheap. . .we are not recommending our clients to go ahead and do IPOs in this environment,” said one banker.

Shankar Ramakrishnan, Fiona Lau, Denise Wee, Govinda Finn

Recently, someone asked me about Low Cost Housing and 'how low cost' would it be in terms of construction - which triggers me - that I've not been writing anything on Civil Engineering for quite sometimes.

Here's an article (I do not know who is the original author) from Civil Engineering Portal India which I think would be something worth looking into (I love reading this article for it's directly related to what I've been mentioning all long (you may find quite a number of related articles in my blog) about quality costs in construction):

Low Cost Housing is a new concept which deals with effective budgeting and following of techniques which help in reducing the cost construction through the use of locally available materials along with improved skills and technology without sacrificing the strength, performance and life of the structure.There is huge misconception that low cost housing is suitable for only sub standard works and they are constructed by utilizing cheap building materials of low quality.The fact is that Low cost housing is done by proper management of resources.Economy is also achieved by postponing finishing works or implementing them in phases.

Building Cost

The building construction cost can be divided into two parts namely:

Building material cost : 65 to 70 %
Labour cost : 65 to 70 %

Now in low cost housing, building material cost is less because we make use of the locally available materials and also the labour cost can be reduced by properly making the time schedule of our work. Cost of reduction is achieved by selection of more efficient material or by an improved design.

Areas from where cost can be reduced are:-

1) Reduce plinth area by using thinner wall concept.Ex.15 cms thick solid concrete block wall.

2) Use locally available material in an innovative form like soil cement blocks in place of burnt brick.

3) Use energy efficiency materials which consumes less energy like concrete block in place of burnt brick.

4) Use environmentally friendly materials which are substitute for conventional building components like use R.C.C. Door and window frames in place of wooden frames.

5) Preplan every component of a house and rationalize the design procedure for reducing the size of the component in the building.

6) By planning each and every component of a house the wastage of materials due to demolition of the unplanned component of the house can be avoided.

7) Each component of the house shall be checked whether if it’s necessary, if it is not necessary, then that component should not be used.

Cost reduction through adhoc methods

Foundation

Normally the foundation cost comes to about 10 to 15% of the total building and usually foundation depth of 3 to 4 ft. is adopted for single or double store building and also the concrete bed of 6″(15 Cms.) is used for the foundation which could be avoided.

It is recommended to adopt a foundation depth of 2 ft.(0.6m) for normal soil like gravely soil, red soils etc., and use the uncoursed rubble masonry with the bond stones and good packing. Similarly the foundation width is rationalized to 2 ft.(0.6m).To avoid cracks formation in foundation the masonry shall be thoroughly packed with cement mortar of 1:8 boulders and bond stones at regular intervals.
It is further suggested adopt arch foundation in ordinary soil for effecting reduction in construction cost up to 40%.This kind of foundation will help in bridging the loose pockets of soil which occurs along the foundation.
In the case black cotton and other soft soils it is recommend to use under ream pile foundation which saves about 20 to 25% in cost over the conventional method of construction.

Plinth

It is suggested to adopt 1 ft. height above ground level for the plinth and may be constructed with a cement mortar of 1:6. The plinth slab of 4 to 6″ which is normally adopted can be avoided and in its place brick on edge can be used for reducing the cost. By adopting this procedure the cost of plinth foundation can be reduced by about 35 to 50%.It is necessary to take precaution of providing impervious blanket like concrete slabs or stone slabs all round the building for enabling to reduce erosion of soil and thereby avoiding exposure of foundation surface and crack formation.

Walling

Wall thickness of 6 to 9″ is recommended for adoption in the construction of walls all-round the building and 41/2 ” for inside walls. It is suggested to use burnt bricks which are immersed in water for 24 hours and then shall be used for the walls

Rat – trap bond wall

It is a cavity wall construction with added advantage of thermal comfort and reduction in the quantity of bricks required for masonry work. By adopting this method of bonding of brick masonry compared to traditional English or Flemish bond masonry, it is possible to reduce in the material cost of bricks by 25% and about 10to 15% in the masonry cost. By adopting rat-trap bond method one can create aesthetically pleasing wall surface and plastering can be avoided.

Concrete block walling

In view of high energy consumption by burnt brick it is suggested to use concrete block (block hollow and solid) which consumes about only 1/3 of the energy of the burnt bricks in its production. By using concrete block masonry the wall thickness can be reduced from 20 cms to 15 Cms. Concrete block masonry saves mortar consumption, speedy construction of wall resulting in higher output of labour, plastering can be avoided thereby an overall saving of 10 to 25% can be achieved.

Soil cement block technology

It is an alternative method of construction of walls using soil cement blocks in place of burnt bricks masonry. It is an energy efficient method of construction where soil mixed with 5% and above cement and pressed in hand operated machine and cured well and then used in the masonry. This masonry doesn’t require plastering on both sides of the wall. The overall economy that could be achieved with the soil cement technology is about 15 to 20% compared to conventional method of construction.

Doors and windows

It is suggested not to use wood for doors and windows and in its place concrete or steel section frames shall be used for achieving saving in cost up to 30 to 40%.Similiarly for shutters commercially available block boards, fibre or wooden practical boards etc., shall be used for reducing the cost by about 25%.By adopting brick jelly work and precast components effective ventilation could be provided to the building and also the construction cost could be saved up to 50% over the window components.

Lintals and Chajjas

The traditional R.C.C. lintels which are costly can be replaced by brick arches for small spans and save construction cost up to 30 to 40% over the traditional method of construction. By adopting arches of different shapes a good architectural pleasing appearance can be given to the external wall surfaces of the brick masonry.

Roofing

Normally 5″(12.5 cms) thick R.C.C. slabs is used for roofing of residential buildings. By adopting rationally designed insitu construction practices like filler slab and precast elements the construction cost of roofing can be reduced by about 20 to 25%.

Filler slabs

They are normal RCC slabs where bottom half (tension) concrete portions are replaced by filler materials such as bricks, tiles, cellular concrete blocks, etc.These filler materials are so placed as not to compromise structural strength, result in replacing unwanted and nonfunctional tension concrete, thus resulting in economy. These are safe, sound and provide aesthetically pleasing pattern ceilings and also need no plaster.

Jack arch roof/floor

They are easy to construct, save on cement and steel, are more appropriate in hot climates. These can be constructed using compressed earth blocks also as alternative to bricks for further economy.

Ferrocement channel/shell unit

Provide an economic solution to RCC slab by providing 30 to 40% cost reduction on floor/roof unit over RCC slabs without compromising the strength. These being precast, construction is speedy, economical due to avoidance of shuttering and facilitate quality control.

Finishing Work

The cost of finishing items like sanitary, electricity, painting etc., varies depending upon the type and quality of products used in the building and its cost reduction is left to the individual choice and liking.

Conclusion

The above list of suggestion for reducing construction cost is of general nature and it varies depending upon the nature of the building to be constructed, budget of the owner, geographical location where the house is to be constructed, availability of the building material, good construction management practices etc. However it is necessary that good planning and design methods shall be adopted by utilizing the services of an experienced engineer or an architect for supervising the work, thereby achieving overall cost effectiveness to the extent of 25% in actual practice.

RUMOURS VS FACTS, SPECULATION VS ANALYSIS

I've heard stories about most major banking and financial Institutions are having special meetings to revise and reformulate monetary policies.

I do agree with these actions as the stock market may rise again PROVIDED the best monetary policies are introduced into the marketplace.

One thing for certain, investors are digesting rumours rather than facts, speculation rather than analysis - people just don't have the patience to wait nowadays. Many have told me that this is going to be short term but that 'short term' are dominating the market with making strange shapes. One news from the US...say unemployment rate, then it would finally affect the whole world.

One thing for certain, there are still investors taking risks waiting for 'the right time to sell' - even minimum gains is good enough but many seem to find strength in weakness (opportunity to buy/profit taking) where efforts to strengthen of holdings in equities are seen. Despite its sluggish performance, surprisingly USD may get better - lowest interest rates offerings, plans of liquidity etc.

Well, as for me, besides than unit trust, I'm also looking into GLC's bonds at the moment. Will be back soon..

To recover or not to recover?

Analysts these days are expecting (or speculating) recessions whether we're in L, U, V, W shapes.

Not a very long time ago, we faced difficulties in the construction projects - both material and labour. Richness have favoured oil exporters after the price was USD147/barrel. Then, we see light at the end of the tunnel for India and especially China - attaining good results instead of recession (China - the next country that will save the world? - we'll see) Next, we also see good signs in Australia and Canada as well.

US have been good before the subprime mortgage crisis that affect the whole world - thanks to capitalism. Now, it appears that; apart from US; almost every country in the West is in dire economic straits and surprisingly affecting the birthrate as well. Healthcare now is becoming a trend just like bailouts and stimulus. National debt and deficit to rations of Gross Domestic Product are alarmingly high. Many are now debt-laden. These unstable conditions may have hard effects on USD.

How are we doing today? Mr. World Economics?
By Nik Zafri - Oct 7, 2009

Ok..to start with - Oil (Asia)...Source NYME - November benchmark crude up 63 cents - $71.51 by 12.30 pm and contract settled at $70.88 - a rise of 47 cents. For US (Dow Jones gaining 1.4%), it's the best achievement and a good sign for prospects of more corporate profits.

A sign of recovery? Perhaps - Oil markets & equities are being driven by this recovery.

There is another paradox though - if crude inventories fall, oil prices may rise further and price will fall if crude stocks rise. I hope if this happens, the strong financial market will back it up.

Global Economic Stimulus Package - I'm glad that our global economy now can withstand higher borrowing cost - despite there are talks about interest hike yet world Governments spending and offers of low interest rates are now emerging.

Next - Inflation vs interest rate hikes. Some countries in the Asia-Pacific Region expected a building trend of inflation (Australia recently raise their key interest rates (official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%) - which is OK to them) due to recent hike 'Downunder' - there is a possibility that 'everyone else' will follow this trend.

Thus, if there is a plan to raise interest...I can understand why (we must be fair to the Banking and Financial instititutions as well) but please monitor the inflation possibilty..if there is such sign (in Malaysia specifically), please control it.

Bonds - Reports came to me that in some countries - Traders are buying after the fall. Yields are retreating (on the benchmark one decade bond yield now closing lower - During the early deals, it's rising due to lacking of buyback news - something to look at before )

Before I move on : Anyone heard of the so called secret talks between the Gulf states? I heard stories about China and Russia are replacing oil trading with dollar which may have caused the decline is USD?

Next - USD vs Gold vs other currency - I think everyone is noticing that USD is falling against major currency. Thus gold are rallying on the bullion markets and silver surges higher. (Dollar is now the 'arc nemesis' to gold = Gold is used for safe hedge against inflation whenever the Dollar is down)

Taken from The Star - Business > News - Wednesday August 5, 2009
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I think readers should read this article. I kinda like what Mr. Kumar is writing - it makes so much sense by asking two questions (save or spend - both have pro/cons) - almost related to what I've said in one of my articles about the paradox of 'so many sellers but not so many buyers'...both have pro/cons such as the purchasing power. Good work Mr. Pankaj...you made both Kurnia and Malaysia proud!!

Some suggestions on everyone's dilemma - To save or to spend?
By (Mr.) Pankaj Kumar (Chief Investment Officer - Kurnia)

OUR parents do it, our grandparents and forefathers did it, our siblings do it, as do some of our friends and colleagues. All for the rainy days, so we were told. Yes, savings.

We have to save for our future to ensure that we have something to meet unexpected expenses that may occur in our lives or to make the down-payment for the dream home or car or to pay for our once-in-a-lifetime event, where we become king and queen for a day.

When we are in a family with children, we also save for their future education needs as well as preparing ourselves for retirement.

Some say we do too much of it while others say there’s no such thing as enough. Our parents told us that we have to start young and we should build it up over the years so that by the time we retire we have enough to enjoy and live until we are called by Him.

Some say we have to save 10% of our monthly income as a benchmark while others try for more if they can afford it while some find it tough just to make ends meet, simply because of the higher cost of living.

One thing without doubt is that we have this inherent habit of saving for the future and, to the extent, we save so much that we do not know what to do with it.

My argument is simple as if we look at the current banking system in the country and capturing data related to savings, fixed deposits and demand deposits, individual savings amount to about RM388bil against the total of RM695bil as at June 30, 2009, representing about 56% of the banking system.

If we were to measure the above data in terms of per capita deposit and based on our total population of 28.3 million, per capita individual deposits in the banking system is about RM13,700.

In any society, savings is the pillar of economic expansion as the savings mobilised can be utilised to fund investments. This is indeed very different in Western society, particularly the US where it was only recently that the US found reasons to save due to the on-going economic fallout.

For years the rest of the world has been funding US consumption as the US has been running current account deficits for years and now ranks as the worst country in the world with the highest amount of current account deficit of US$862.3bil.

Malaysia proudly ranks number 17 with a current account surplus of US$17.86bil.

What is the irony of the Americans and us in Asia? It seems that much of Asia’s savings are channelled towards America’s consumption.

We save and the US spends, but it is Asia’s economy that is said to be weak while Uncle Sam is who the world looks up to as without the US spending power, the rest of the world could collapse, starting with significant decline in trade between the rest of the world and the US.

Based on a recent article by Dr Jagdish Bhagwati, a famous Indian-born economist in the US, the US had taken over US$5 trillion from the world and, today, to keep the US spending habits, the rest of the world has to invest US$2bil per day.

Today, almost US$1.3 trillion of US treasuries are held by the Chinese and Japanese. With more US papers flooding the market and to ensure that the dollar doesn’t collapse, the rest of the world has no choice but to buy these papers.

It is indeed a vicious cycle that we are in now as the world is too dependent on US consumption for its own growth.

Bhagwati further commented in his recent article that a nation cannot grow unless the people spend, not save. Not just spend, but borrow and spend. Saving is sin and spending is virtue.

I must say that the above argument has its merits in the American context but we Asians believe in our own values.

Hence, savings will remain a virtue and we will continue to embrace this belief in us and our children as it is our savings habit that has brought us to where we are today while our spending habits are slowly but surely rising.

It may not come as a surprise that one day, we in Asia too will increase our desire for goods and services to the extent it undermines our ability to save and, at the same time, our ability to be a source of funds for the nation’s economic growth.

THE KPI AND KRA ANECDOTE

I suppose most of us nationwide is aware of the KPI and KRA especially those who have heard about YAB PM recently announced.

So I like you all to take a bit of time to read the following and be alert on my 'cooking of management phrases'

Let's go to the Key Results Areas first (KRA). KRA was born from Management by Objective (MBO) concept introduced by Peter Drucker in 1954. I think KRA is not really part from MBO but rather an evolution to clarify Objectives and Goals better.

(Via a consulting firm in 1997, I was one of the accredited MBO consultant for few Banking and Financial Institutions)

To make it simple - I will explain briefly what to expect from MBO.

It has a Mission Statement then Objectives, Goals and finally Key Result Areas (KRA). Hmm how to put it huh? Ok...input and output hence Productivity was born together with Benchmarking.

The then PM, Honourable Tun Dr. Mahathir introduced the 'Participative Management Concept' via the Look East Policy somewhere around 1982 and the rest is history (Malaysian Incorporated, Privatization, Proton Saga and so on) The participative management is part of what we commonly know as Total Quality Management (TQM) where among others it promote teamwork, bottom-up management, QCC Tools, Small Group Activities (SGA), Six Sigma, human capital, PLAN-DO-CHECK-ACT (PDCA) etc.

The participative management concept has evolutionized MBO further which I also believe the reason for KRA to exist so that it would be on 'mutual consent' basis between the 'setter' and the 'implementer'.

Back to MBO, conceptually speaking, the only thing that may not be measurable is the Mission Statement (although some put 'to become 'x' in 'x' years' while the rest are ALL measurable - be it Objective, Goals and KRA. 'Objectives' in MBO are key strategies to achieve the Mission Statement. Goals in MBO are 'short term objectives' to achieve Main 'Objectives'.

At the micro level (immediately after Goals) KRA is the output expected within a certain period of time.

The art of measuring is also known as 'Benchmarking' (get it?)

In Human Resources, MBO/KRA facilitates the formation of Job Descriptions, Performance Indicators (also related to KPI) and Responsibilities/Authorities.

Objectives and Goals are measured using % where they are being prioritized by a 'brainstorming' session (SGA/QCC) But the numbers of Objectives and Goals may not be the same. Example - One Objective may require two different goals. KRA is considered as the output which will determine the success implementation and continual improvment of Goals and Objectives (cascading principle)

ISO 9000 also has a similar concept known as Department/Unit Objectives which are also 'measureable'.

However most people argued with me that it should also be 'achievable' (although it does not SAY "achievable" in the ISO clause) I disagreed because the 'achievable' may also depend on the scope of work of a business entity.

Say for example, the Department Objective of a 'construction division' is

"to reduce 'x' wastages to...say...3% per 6 months"

What arguers don't see is that :

a) this relates to the value and magnitude of the project itself and
b) the quantity surveyor/purchaser buying 'buffer stock' - just in case

I asked the 'arguers' - what if the contractor gained a bigger project?

The 3% need to be reviewed as it may be TOO MUCH to achieve (for a bigger project) - it should be reduced to 2% but the implementers must justify why it is being reduced. Agreed? (so the arguers now are now my supporters)

So this reviewal or adjustment or ALIGNMENT is also known as BALANCE SCORECARD. (more confused you are all I guess - not to worry - I'm almost finished) Balance Scorecard is part of Strategic Planning and Management popularized by Kaplan (of Harvard) and David Norton. The purpose is to ALIGN activities to the organizational 'vision and strategy', improve communication breakdowns (also in ISO as well), and monitor organization performance against strategic goals (also in Objectives & Goals of MBO) It is to give the implementers a more 'balanced' view of organizational performance. (see ISO's Data Analysis + Quality Cost below)

Again, ISO 9000 concept of Objectives are also based on MBO/KRA as well. But the good thing that we can adopt from ISO is that there is an activity call the 'Data Analysis' for Action Plans/Continual Improvement (not only having statistics and do not know what to do with it) Here's something for all the readers/decision makers to think before you leap :

In Data Analysis, you have number of non-conformances (NCR) per product and you will compare them with other products range (or services). Sometimes, on screen, you see the NCR is high (be it major or minor) on the system (which require minor amendment in certain documentation) and you also see certain NCR is low.

Be careful, go further by 3rd level analysis (by cost - or - Quality Cost) You will find that the 'high NCR' may only cost you about RM1.00 or less!! Why? Because the NCR is about amending documentation - papers or perhaps 'online documentation'. But you'll be shocked to find that the 'lower NCR' are major defects on your product that may cost you MILLIONS although the NCR is only 1 -2. So be careful during an analysis especially when you're doing ISO 9000. And also, don't focus at the 'bad numbers' but also the 'good numbers' (conformity) - as the latter will help you in BRANDING yourself - how do you want your customers to view you....so don't forget your strengths as well (SWOT)

But at least you can learn two things :

a) An objective or goals or KRA may not be 'ACHIEVABLE' if properly justified, (but they should be MEASURABLE of course)
b) You must have a THOROUGH data analysis and find out 'what went wrong' before you make decision.

Hey..wait a sec...where's KPI?

Huh, don't you see? KPI + KRA = BALANCE SCORECARD!! Gotcha!! (That's why I highlighted Balance Scorecard in BOLD)

So don't worry guys, just learn Balance Scorecard and you will learn everything that I've said here now. I'm sure the YAB Prime Minister would agree with me...I'm sure a lot 'thinkers' are telling him 'this and that' and he says...NO WAY...make it simple not complex...so the KPI + KRA are born - one is input, the other is output.

What do you think NIK?

I think that everything I've mentioned here is KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT...tadaaaah

The End

THE NORMAL ANECDOTE

I'm back!!

I've been relooking into the 1998 - 2001 Malaysian economy and discovered many great things. Not about the recession but about how we rebound and learn from our past mistakes. There have been hiccups here and there but yet we survived. I think IF given limited choice, which were the best two ideas that helped - I would vote for two (Of course it's the Legendary Tun M) :

a) 'controversial' decision to peg the RM to the USD and
b) Reintroducing/Rebranding of ICT & new technology

Between 1999 - 2000, new technology including ICT have been reintroduced 'cautiously' into the market and this time, the technology are there to stay and a lot of good things been happening. To mention a few, the Knowledge Management era, B2B/B2C and finally e-commerce.

Numbers of IPOs increased dramatically especially those having to do with technological stocks.

Early 2001 US Market a.k.a. NASDAQ experienced a 'burst of technological bubble'. The Feds attempted to minimize borrowings by increasing the rates to stop bubble burst but the effort came too late.

Then I dig further which leads me towards the fundamental principles of economy. I did say these sacred words (where was it huh?):

"If everybody want to sell, who wants to buy" or "If everyone is a supplier, who is the customer then?"

As you no doubt have guessed - the principle that I'm talking about is "Supply, Demand and Equilibrium" but in a different perspective.

Malaysia almost made the same mistake by giving out loans and grants (via Banks & Financial Institutions including some Government Agencies) but the businesses they were 'helping' are mostly suppliers/contractors/service providers/sellers etc and not customers. New products, New technologies - everything NEW - mostly claimed to 'assist the Government in their plans' but actually to 'make more money'. (In the end suppliers are flooding the market and not customers)

Again, I'm not implying that the business plans submitted didn't take into account the target market a.k.a. the customers but I'm just looking at the facts.

In laymen term, the customers at the point where borrowings were provided to the suppliers or sellers - are either :

a) loosing their purchasing powers quite rapidly.
b) Or did they have too many suppliers to choose hence, they thought of one good idea -
c) why not I just keep my money without spending them?

Then the banking and financial institutions have no choice but to increase the rate in order to minimize borrowings. Although this has; in a manner of speaking; helped in the 'rebounding process, - but again, there were little effort to help out the customers to regain their purchasing powers or increase promotion on buying rather than keeping.

The 'rich' customers did spend their money but based on my analysis on people going out for vacationing and business purposes overseas, these customers were spending outside Malaysia!

Despite the tourism industry did spur the growth of tourists coming in assisted by MIDA, MITI etc for prospects of domestic investment or export but nobody really tried to capture how much money Malaysians are spending outside? (Here, I'm referrring to those who did not use MITI or MIDA avenues to invest outside but rather - their own initiatives - perhaps due to some 'smart partnerships' or 'JVs' that were not announced in the medias. Apart from this category, I will not touch on those who used their money for crazy shopping spree or gambling (well..it's their rights)

The other customers? You've heard it all the time :

Those 'customers really loosing the purchasing power' (moderate or poor family) decided to spend their money by saving them or buying only the required consumables may not be able to invest in 'high end investments'.
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Back to the future : (now)

Old habits never die.

We have experienced above 1000 KLCI achievements and suddenly (as I have said in another topic) the market become erratic. Yes, I did say that Banks and Financial Institutions including relevant Government Agencies should help and I must admit I was a bit wrong in my decision. (when I found out - loans and grants are focussing mainly on Suppliers again - as I speak)

So, how to balance and reach 'equilibrium'? (not necessarily 50%-50% - you can't do that)

I was speaking to a Malaysian friend working in the Middle East. He noticed one remarkable thing...it's not easy to find a 'poor guy or family'..everyone is working or at least doing business, or very rarely he heard that people cannot buy things over there.

Again, I dig further...my friend told me that if there is a poor guy and they got to know about it...two things will be done :

a. Giving him/her a sum of money to cater for himself and family, pay his/her debts/overheads etc.

b. Next, giving him a job with proper training and development so that he too can earn a salary just like everyone else,

c. Alternatively, he will be given (not a loan) a sum of money to open up a business (again with training) if he has interest in any kind of business or accepting suggestions from Government 'experts/consultants'.

(Yes, you might say that the Middle East have abundance of oil and everyone is rich. But this country in the Middle East is a LOT bigger than Malaysia. For Malaysia and its population, we also have enough supply of fuel/oil and abundance of resources for everyone as well..)

I'm not asking too much - all I'm hoping for we can take good examples - how we're going to do it..that is really up to us. I think 'good intentions' must also be there before we do everything.

So conclusion for now....make effort to 'balance up' between the 'sellers' and 'buyers'...you'll see improvements in economy..I guarantee it!

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Here's my complaints for the day :

1) Funny, I still see 'genuine poor people' in Gombak who are really scared to ask for help because

a) they are illiterate or

b) been cheated with their ICs 'taken away' by unscrupulous people or

c) too scared to go to Government offices to ask for help or scared of procedures or scared of being chased out and many more.

so where's the 'Wakil Rakyat'? Where's the 'Ahli Parlimen' - don't care 'lah' whether you from BN or BA..just do your work - do not treat these people as 'don't exist'!

2) Funny, for almost 10 years, I still see 'rats' and 'unattended garbages' - if we can't solve these two 'small problems' or start pointing hands to another party - then what more to solve problems of people?

The Star News Nation - Friday June 26, 2009
Negri turns down RM8bil investment

NILAI: The state government has rejected an RM8bil investment from a company based in the Middle East to set up a petrochemical plant in Port Dickson.

Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan said the state authorities had decided not to accept the investment as it was a potential environment hazard.

“We want to preserve our mangroves and our pristine beaches. We do not want to be spending a lot more money later to rehabilitate our beaches which are the best south of Kuala Lumpur,” he told reporters at the soft launch of the RM60mil Nilai Springs Resort Hotel here.



Mohamad looking at a section of the lunch buffet after opening the Nilai Springs Resort Hotel while Gan looks on

Mohamad said the state government also rejected the bid as the site chosen by the company was a forest reserve.

He said the state government would not allow such projects along the coastline.

“No structures should be built on the sea as these could also have an adverse impact on the environment,” he said.

On a separate matter, Mohamad said an American company would build a RM400mil manufacturing plant in Bandar Enstek.

“They have signed a land purchase agreement with us and earth works are expected to start soon,” he said, without revealing the name of the company.

It would employ up to 750 workers when in full operation.

Mohamad said an international school would also be built in Nilai next year to cater to the needs of the expatriate community living in the state. “Most of these expatriates, particularly South Koreans and Japanese, are forced to live in Kuala Lumpur because we do not have an international school here.”

Mohamad also congratulated Tan Sri Gan Kong Seng, the chairman of PK Resources and owner of the four-star Nilai Springs Resort Hotel for having the foresight to build the 183-room hotel here.

“This is a strategic location and its proximity to the KLIA, Putrajaya, Cyberjaya and the Formula 1 circuit certainly gives it an advantage over others,” he added.
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My response

Dear YAB Mentri Besar of Negeri Sembilan
Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan

May I dedicate my greatest respect and congratulate you for such a courageous act in the name of environmental management and preservation. It must be hard for you to make such an unpopular decision but what is right is still right.

I'm not from Negri Sembilan but Port Dickson is like a getaway home to my family. You are very right to say that the NS Government will spend so much money on rehabilitation if the project allowed to be carried out.

As a result of unsustainable development, the marine life in Port Dickson is deteriorating badly - coral reefs, fish, etc. Thus, the fast pace of development without guarantee of safeguarding the environment should be put to halt immediately. Efforts to restore the marine life must be carried out now!

In those good old days, almost everywhere in Port Dickson used to look like Tanjung Tuan. Tanjung Tuan has now become a role model where no unsustainable development is allowed - Tanjung Tuan is a cape of natural coastal forest with mangroves and good for bird watching.

The petrochemical industry pumps out petroleum and chemicals through miles of pipeline. Mainly offshore - commonly, it cuts through the coastal wetlands (hence cutting into the swamp) bringing salt water inland 'murdering' the trees which stand as natural 'erode proof' - Wetlands will soon loosing it's buffer of protection and eventually more land will vanish.

Furthermore, do not underestimate the power of global warming. It can push up sea levels hence exposing the coastline to be more fragile to natural disasters (even how small it would be)

YAB Datuk Seri

I wish every MB would take you as an example. Development is fine with me but by compromising the environment is not acceptable.

We still have people cutting trees indiscriminately and in the end, these same people started to complain about how hot it is to stay in their place where they are living.

This is really happening to the place where I'm staying - Taman Seri Gombak (which ironically many people tend to forget the name of this place - I don't know why) and I feel very dissapointed with the current pace of unsustainable development.

People who do not know how to preserve the environment today will create a dark future for their own generation tommorrow

Thanks and regards - YAB - keep up the good work

Wassalam.

NIK ZAFRI