DEAR HEDGE FUNDS MANAGERS

Although hedging is done 'discreetly' by some 'hedge fund managers', I still think that Malaysia (in particular SC) should keep a close surveillance by having a revised version of regulations to monitor private equity company's especially. I heard stories from some European friends that EC has come out with such regulations. Finally EC has come to its senses and limit of patience. (the line must be drawn here..this far..no further...) Anything > 1:1 leverage is only a 'rumour' and excuse being protective but if you go on being stubborn about it - it may be 'the end' of private equity...(trust me)

I know that many may disagree with me and they are willing to see me to debate endlessly on the subject (hey..you guys are forgetting, I am well aware of the mechanisms..ok?) Everyone involve in hedge fund in Malaysia in whatever capacity should know better what's going on this world today. Even the most popular and oldest Rolodex is slowing down..so, you should think twice before moving on...(not to mention Alpha, Pequot and Andor - possible shut down is expected)

Bursa Malaysia is just showing the signs of curing but if you should all know the danger of 'reopening old wounds'...look around you..do you care? Volatile price, foreclosure even unemployment (not to mention crime rates) etc can be translated into 'not favouring' the hedge funds...in short - 'losses'!! But so many of us claimed that hedge funds is not the cause but quoting European policymakers :

"They many have exacerbated it by fueling bubbles with leveraged investments in the good times and then offloading assets by the bucket-load in the bad times"

Many people follow your assurance that they'll be making money but they didn't actually get what they should be getting - but most of you fund managers love to blame 'the economic crisis'...what an absurd statement! (excuse me!) You are 'hedging'!! (making money in down markets - this doesn't work anymore..face it!) Traders and portfolio managers have been sending e-mails to me that they are loosing money out of their pockets...ask them why? (20% on top of 2% management fee? Ring a bell?)

But despite of all these talks of mine - I ain't implying that hedge fund is no good but during unsuitable times like today, something should be done either follow the rules 'religiously' or off you go! Why Nik? Here's my answer : it's almost 1998 all over again...and I'm sure you don't want this to reoccur. 1998 is not because of hedge funds but a proper regulations were not really there yet.

So, what sort of regulations Nik? You have ideas? Ok..first of all private equity and hedge funds 'people' must be transparent from now on...no more 'disreet'..no more 'classified'..no more 'confidentiality'. I know sometimes taxation is a big issue to you but give it a thought for just a short while - give your lending ears to listen to what I have to say before you click 'x' on this blog.
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Initial proposal from Nik Zafri to anyone out there reading my blog - who wish to listen :

You must first reveal your plan (To the proper authorities..I don't know..maybe SC, Inland Revenue, BNM) on:

a) managing level of capital,

b) managing risk,

c) valuation of assets and most important

d) your strategy in doing business.

2nd - STOP NOW if you're involved in any trade relating to MONEY LAUNDERING!! (so, is this the thing you're being discreet about?) Get out now before it's too late!

3rd - It's time to pay based on gains not losses!! Otherwise, we will go back to square 1...make money during down market..gosh...

Having this sort of regulations may help our economic recovery further but of course if the regulations are not strict enough and having loopholes...definitely there can be abuse - some people in the market will always creatively found a way to do 'evasive maneuvers'

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More to come...

SO, WHAT ELSE SHOULD WE DO?

Everyone is having their own 'hypotheses' and 'scapegoats to blame' on the economic condition today. Yes, it all started from the US sub-prime mortgage crisis and ultimately like a 'contagious desease' - it 'assaulted' the banking and financial institutions including their instruments.

1) Lawmakers claimed that it's the financial institutions failed to adhere to the BAFIA and latter snarled at lawmakers for inadequate enforcement.

2) Investors hurled allegations at banks for 'wiping out' their money 'riskily' (insurance, pension funds etc) and the latter fought back saying that investors gave them authority to do so.

3) Fund Managers are affected as well - demanding for higher pay and/or higher fees.

Seeing international big 'fat' banks being closed did not make things any better. And they said it's 'management problem' - how can international banks operating successfully for nearly or more than a century old can blame on 'management problem'? It doesn't make sense-does it? Furthermore - they were supposed to be the champions of corporate governance with stringent auditors and audit committees working according to codes of practice..in short - by the book! (or the auditors are the 'Baring', 'Enron', 'Worldcom' and 'AA' type of auditors?)

Or perhaps they hired the wrong people? or the unqualified 'Non-Executive Directors' in the Board?(perhaps those with insufficient experience in making turnarounds) So what happens now? Sack them?

But most significantly - the investors are watching directors and auditors very closely...one small mistake can cause huge amount of 'deadly' criticisms and 'threats' like 'I'm no longer investing with you' and vote of inconfidence in AGM.

Lawmakers say that stricter regulations are required - beefed up 'security' to provide a 'win-win' situation for both the investors and the banking/financial institutions. But I think - this is the question of enforcement - our BAFIA and financial standards are FINE!!

So, banks should be giving more and more lending...it looks good but it may also be risky. So, excessive lending without proper control probably would land the banks into trouble and soon ended up in the bailout long list.

I read a good statement from Chairman of IMA during one FSA's Asset Management conference:

"Investment banks are creating and distributing structured investment products aimed at the retail investor. Deceptively simple in sales pitch but complex in construction, they carry issuer risk, liquidity risk, and a level of costs which the retail buyer may not fully understand. Yet this is an area largely free from regulatory oversight and competes directly with a highly regulated traditional investment industry where agency status is central, transparency of fees and holdings de rigueur and government pressure to raise levels of treating customers fairly foremost. Is someone asleep at the watch?”

So? Lawmakers to be blamed? How's credit rating agencies for a change?

Now - agencies in credit rating (CRA) - should their roles be redefined? I know their roles in the capital market are very relevant but

a) Can we really depend on 'estimation'?
b) or just take it as a guide?
c) Are credit rating really accurate?

I know so much money has been spent based on their findings on bonds, debt instruments etc. And how many corporations shuddered when being rated superficially. (not to mention shares and human disposals)

But of course, I find that CRA's consultation can still be improved - on financial products - CDO for example and of course not forgetting the tranching of asset portfolios etc. Most of all, they need to educate the investors on the rationale of their ratings including the complex variations of many types of bonds.

Investors - I recommend that they too need to carry more responsibility rather than putting the blame on others who have worked so hard to ensure sustainability. So have mercy!!

HOW LONG OR HOW TO MAINTAIN THE 'RECOVERY' - Nik Zafri (2009)

Hello again...today I'm 'blogging' not 'lecturing'...( :-) )

So, the Malaysian Economy has shown signs of survival at last...but the golden question now is for how long? Some say :

“Wait till September, before something will go wrong”

Thinking of September always give me the shudders – not only because it's my birthday month (unfortunately) but many things happen 'coincidentally' during September. So, can we or can we not change our 'destiny'?

Here goes nothing :

We need some good support or some sort of infrastructure – call it politics if you want.

1.We need to lower down the poverty level regardless of background, status, race, religion and political tendency. Yes, this reminds me of the Ninth Malaysian Plan (2006-2010).

But of course, rough ideas can always be 'liberated' further for e.g.

a) What Senator Datuk Seri Sharizat Jalil recommended today that the Welfare Department should also consider assisting those 'owning cars, motorbikes, televisions and refrigerator' – which are now considered no longer 'things that only wealthy people can own'.

b) The 'Lembaga Zakat' wider functions should also be taken into account.

Assisting Poor Kids to School

Besides assisting potential entrepreneurs and donation to the needies, the banking and financial institutions should also come out with some ideas on how they can chip in into this – at least sponsor the poor kids to school (I know some have done this but more programs like these would go far in order to really achieve the status of 'responsible corporate citizen'...hmm that's a good idea...why not we have certs or some sort of certifications' entitled the 'Responsible Corporate Citizen's Award'...perhaps YAB Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib can do the awarding ceremony – perhaps the award or cert entitle the corporate entities with some 'waivings' apart from tax)

Eat good and healthy food – now this one is really very serious! Diabetes, Hypertension, Heart Attack, Mamak Stall, Nasi Lemak, Smoking/drinkng (whoops) God knows how many more! What kind of food are we Malaysians taking?!!

Perhaps Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai should look into this matter as well....just make the food pyramid bigger so that everyone can see it!! Remember, good food gives you good brains and good brains will help you out solve matters.

One more thing....food in school canteen and cafeterias must adhere to strict food regulations – regular checks by authorities etc. No more food poisoning cases please... (remember also to provide or sponsor free healthy food for ALL children and students in school – once a week? - any takers? Nestle?)

For the banking and financial institutions, venture capitalist and grant providers

Only one thing...Show us the MONEY!! How about releasing the ones that are still in your safekeeping now??

Now is the right time...you have good benchmarks, great KPIs, good collaterals, guarantors even, not to mention viability and feasibility...so what are you waiting for? Afterlife? Bailouts?

For the politicians (regardless who you're with)

Stop the nonsense and craps....go help the Prime Minister 1 Malaysia! Go do your jobs in your constituencies...not just gatherings in community halls - go to mamak stalls if you have to (don't worry, if common people swarm you with proposals or asking you money or projects..just give a lending ear and say "I'll see what I can do" but 'must do according to procedures')

Work harder.....

Then if you wish to fight in the course of implementation or for the sake of people's progress, then fight 'lah'....make sure jobs are done!!

For the government

I found out that energy savings attitude should be inculcated further, from the government offices to corporate sectors and finally the 'rakyat' (or the other way round) There are still wastages of electricity, water supply etc...this must stop...

On the other had, those places that still do not have anything at all...be it electricity or water supply, must be assisted NOW!

ICT – another never-ending issue, I think I've said once (which paper was it?), don't focus too much on 'classy places' but the out of town as well...don't depend so much on small time providers such as cybercafes – give a first class infrastructure (plus educate them) just like what you've given to the 'urbanians' (if there's such word)


For the property market

(to be continued) - I think there are articles in here that you guys can make use.

AS PREDICTED BY NIK ZAFRI




As Nik Zafri has predicted, there will be signs of recovery for Malaysia from April, 2009

NIK ZAFRI'S HUMBLE FORECAST FOR 2009 - (Made in December, 2008)

2ND SIGN

1ST SIGN


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THE STAR - BUSINESS

Thursday April 16, 2009

Economy expected to perform better, says Bank Negara

KUALA LUMPUR: The economy should perform better in the second half of the year as the fiscal stimulus packages are implemented and the effects of the supportive monetary environment kick in, Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said.

"The first quarter was very much affected by external economic contraction taking place, our exports numbers have shown that,” she said.

Malaysian Institute of Economic Research expects local exports to decline 24% this year on sagging worldwide demand, the think tank said in its report yesterday.
Speaking after launching the Interbank Murabahah Master Agreement (IMMA) and Master Agency Agreement (MAA) yesterday, Zeti said the domestic economy was still growing and “this is what we need to sustain the country’s economy”.

Asked if the central bank would revise its economic growth target, she said: “Right now, we have made the assumption that in the second half, the external environment will stabilise and that the fiscal stimulus packages will be implemented.”

“And so, in the current environment, our projection is flat growth as the contraction of the external sector would be offset by domestic demand,” she said.

Bank Negara has projected the economy to register a growth rate of -1% to 1% this year.

On whether the economy had bottomed, Zeti said: “No, it is not clear yet what the direction is in the global economy.”

There was “some stabilisation” taking place but “we still have to wait and see”, she said.

To another query on interest rates, the governor said the central bank had already adopted an aggressive stance and now the focus was to ensure that lending continued.

Zeti said there was no need to raise banks’ minimum capital requirement at the moment.

Non-performing loans were at a historical low now at just over 2%, she said, adding that even if the rates rose, banks were “well positioned to absorb it”.

Zeti said Malaysia did not manage its exchange rate against any specific currency.

“The currency is not a policy instrument but is used to facilitate trade and investment,” she said.

Meanwhile, the newly launched agreements have been adopted by the members of the Association of Islamic Banking Institutions Malaysia (AIBIM) for their deposit-taking and placement transactions.

AIBIM president Datuk Zukri Samat said the adoption of the IMMA and MAA documents would help increase the intensity of Islamic interbank activities.

Like any other money market products, the success of commodity murabahah-based instruments would depend largely on the existence of a standardised document as well as a universally-acceptable structure that was widely recognised by the market, he said.
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Published: Thursday April 16, 2009 MYT 9:39:00 AM
Updated: Thursday April 16, 2009 MYT 9:41:26 AM

TNB powers KLCI early rise

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares on Bursa Malaysia jumped in early Thursday trade, as Wall Street rebound overnight buoyed investors’ sentiment across Asia.

Tenaga Nasional Bhd led rising stocks, adding 25 sen to RM6.75 on brighter outlook despite a drop in profits in the second quarter.

The surge in trading volume in the past few days also helped lift sentiment on the exchange operator, Bursa Malaysia Bhd. The stock climbed 25 sen to RM6.25.

Another big movers among index-linked companies was Malayan Banking Bhd. The counter soared 16sen to RM4.48.

The KL Composite Index advanced 11.44 points, or 1.2% to 968.12 points as at 9.27am. Turnover had surpassed 400 million shares worth at least RM200mil less than half an hour into trade.

The FBM Small Cap index, which track stocks outside the top 100 counters, gained 1.65% to 7,549 points

Around the region, stocks opened higher after stocks on Wall Street staged a late rally overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial ended 1.4% higher to 8,029 and the broader S&P 500 index gained 1.25% to 852 points.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 shot up 3% to 9,007 points, while Seoul’s main Kospi index opened 2.4% higher at 1,365 points. Singapore’s Straits Times index kick off Thursday’s trade with a 2% gain at 1,943 points.
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Thursday April 16, 2009

Local stock market promising, set to make gains: CIMB Research

By EDY SARIF

PETALING JAYA: The local stock market outlook is promising and set for further gains due to the “political succession effect and the bottoming of foreign selling,” CIMB Research said.

“We see an improved outlook for the market due to a few reasons,” the research house wrote in its latest report.

“One is the political succession effect when Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak took over as prime minister. Historically, the market performed strongly in the three to six months before and after the changes.”

CIMB Research recently upgraded its rating on the local stockmarket to “overweight” from “neutral” and also raised its target for the KL Composite Index (KLCI) to 1,060 points from 1,013.

An imminent “reversal” in the flow of foreign funds would further lift the local bourse, the research house said, noting that foreign shareholdings were at their lowest level in February since September 2003, at only US$3bil (RM10.85bil).

“The slowdown in foreign fund’s net selling should lessen the downside pressure on share prices,” CIMB Research said.

“In fact, a reversal of these trends would provide a fillip to the market given local and foreign funds’ very high cash levels.”

It added that “a reversal should be imminent as the 12 straight months of net selling are unprecedented”.

Fortress Capital Asset Management (M) Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Thomas Yong said the current assessment on how the stock market was doing was much clearer to investors.

“This is supported by a significant amount of rebound in the market as Malaysia, with less foreign ownership, seems to recover much faster as compared with Singapore and Hong Kong,” he told StarBiz.

Aberdeen Asset Management fund manager Abdul Jalil Abdul Rasheed said as a long-term investor, they were not looking much at the daily performance of stock market.

“We don’t strategise ourselves for short-term market rally as what is happening now in the market. We are steadily buying regardless of whether the market is up or down. In fact, we buy more when the market is down,” he told StarBiz.

But some fund managers remain cautious, according to Kumpulan Sentiasa Cemerlang Sdn Bhd research director Choong Khuat Hock.

“These fund managers (would not rush in) to buy the stocks as they are not sure whether the market recovery would be sustainable,” he told Starbiz, referring to recent stock market rallies.