FLOOD MITIGATION - WHAT'S THE CONCLUSION? - NIK ZAFRI

Personally and professionally speaking, I still do not fully “understand” the never ending problem of flood especially in the East Coast of Malaysia.

(Source : http://d.ibtimes.co.uk) 

As a person who is also having a minor 'stake' in flood mitigation program (which I consider a great honour) I've witnessed the superb knowledge, skills and experience of my fellow professionals and experts in the fields supported fully by the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) and the team of consulting engineers appointed by them. 

The Terms of Reference (TOR or Design Specifications/Briefs) provided by DID is very clear even 'dare' to take a step forward by introducing the need of a comprehensive Flood Risk Management Plan (FRMP) which I am personally involved in including the introduction of Flood Risk Map. (read my lips carefully...not "Flood Hazard Map" but "Flood RISK Map") - any sample Mr. Nik? Sorry...Confidential!

The comprehensive FRMP is the FIRST in Malaysia despite the country has yet a specific Flood Risk Act (also which I have proposed to the Government – hopefully to be passed in Parliament soon)

The proposed Act for Malaysia should be something like this sample :

Introductory Text

Part 1 Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management

1. Key concepts and definitions

1.“Flood” and “coastal erosion”

2.“Risk”

3.“Risk management”

4.“Flood risk management function”

5.“Coastal erosion risk management function”

6.Other definitions

2. Strategies, co-operation and funding

7.National flood and coastal erosion risk management strategy: (Malaysia)

8.National flood and coastal erosion risk management strategy:(States)

9.Local flood risk management strategies: East

10.Local flood risk management strategies: West

11.Effect of national and local strategies: North

12.Effect of national and local strategies: South

13.Co-operation and arrangements

14.Power to request information

15.Civil sanctions

16.Funding

17.Levies

3. Supplemental powers and duties

18.DOE: reports

19.Local authorities: investigations

20.Ministerial directions

21.Lead local authorities: duty to maintain a register

4. Regional Flood and Coastal Committees

22.Establishment

23.Consultation and consent

24.Membership

25.Money

26.“The Minister”

5. General

27.Sustainable development

28.Power to make further amendments

29.Restructuring

30.Designation of features

31.Amendment of other Acts

Part 2 Miscellaneous

32.Sustainable drainage

33.Reservoirs

34.Special administration

35.Provision of infrastructure

36.Water use: temporary bans

37.Civil sanctions

38.Incidental flooding or coastal erosion: DOE

39.Incidental flooding or coastal erosion: local authorities

40.Building regulations: flood resistance

41.Compulsory works orders

42.Agreements on new drainage systems

43.Drainage: concessionary charges for community groups

44.Social tariffs

45.Water and sewerage charges: non-owner occupiers

46.Abolition of Overlapping Committees

Part 3 General

47.Pre-consolidation amendments

48.Subordinate legislation

49.Technical provision

SCHEDULES

SCHEDULE 1 Risk Management: Designation of Features

SCHEDULE 2 Risk Management: Amendment of Other Acts

SCHEDULE 3 Sustainable Drainage

SCHEDULE 4 Reservoirs

SCHEDULE 5 Special Administration

And yet, some parties keep emerging and simply pointing their fingers towards DID when it comes to flood problems. (Remember, there are still other stakeholders as well – check your facts) With all due respect, sometimes I wonder if these finger pointers have any experience involving themselves in DID flood mitigation projects.

First a disclaimer, I am neither working nor instructed by DID or any party to write this article – just to make "a wake up call" and not some "rude awakening"

Let's talk a bit about what I am involved in - been assigned to prepare the Risk Management Plan in 4 parters

Part 1 – Preliminary (mainly about Flood – with all the complete datum – among others, causes of flood, rainfall data and IDF Curves, Mann-Kendall, Hydraulics, risk of flood on people – residential, assets and offices/businesses, roads, riparian issues etc., Climate Change and many others. All these are mostly based on the Site Visit, Survey and Investigation around the catchment area. Both Consultants and DID have been very generous to cooperate by providing me all the datum that I require and at the same time, proposed new ideas to ensure proper mitigation is happening.

Part 2 – Conceptual Design – risks involving design and also future construction activity – focus on the proposed mitigation – such as Bunds, Rubberdams, Bridges, Floodgate and Pumps, Detention Ponds etc. and what are the risks associated with them especially during construction, post construction and once it is handed over to DID.

(Source : http://huachenrubber.en.ecplaza.net)

(Source : http://www.gobizkorea.com)

Part 3 – Interim Report - basically the progress and effectiveness of Part 1 & 2 and how Part 3 is going to be..

Part 4 – Final – integration of both Part 1 and 2. Findings – to include numbers of those at risks, match them with the numbers shown on (a) Socio-Economic Report (prepared by another team member to include survey with the experienced residents) and match them with the (b) Flood Hazard Map, Statistics from many stakeholders and Land Use Map (Current and Future). Then I need to do a projection by marking them in Red, Yellow/Orange, and Green at different bandings – Below and above 0.5m and 1m (extracted from Flood Hazard Map prepared by the Consultants). I then build a flood risk map (still being proposed) with proper scales vs properties at risks. 

(Source : http://i.dailymail.co.uk)

On the other hand the Design and Construction risks are mostly proactively identified based on my experience in the construction industry especially my experience in construction of hydro electric dam has proven very useful.

Using the hazard and risk management method, I have identified the risks and effectiveness of the proposed mitigation from the detailed design – both reports and drawings. Also giving points on each mitigation and mark them with 3 colors as well.

Both flood risks and proposed mitigation design are identified on the likelihood, severity, risk matrix and priority in order to to project – high, medium and low a.k.a. Red, Yellow/Orange and Green.

The Risk Management Plan is aimed at providing a high level and proactive findings of flood risk from local flood sources specifically in consequent to the flooding events which may have commenced from the catchment areas determined/identified by DID. It is also to identify design and construction activity risks as far as is practicable resulting from during and where applicable the possible post-construction activities of the proposed mitigation.

I am also most impressed and proud with DID upon seeing the locally customized calculation dubbed as Hydrological Procedure No1- Estimation of Design Rainstorm in Peninsular Malaysia (HP 1). The report had outlined the new procedure to estimate design storm using a new IDF relationship and developed new temporal pattern for various rainfall duration. I've seen the final projected results and it's really a WOW factor.So, what are the typical causes of flood? While many has given their views, I too have my own views as well.

a) Loss of flood storage as a result of development extending into and taking over flood plains and drainage corridors

b) Increased runoff rates due to urbanisation

c) Inadequate drainage systems or failure of localised drainage improvement works, extended insufficiently downstream.

d) Constriction at bridges and culverts that are either undersized or partially blocked by debris build-up or from other causes

e) Siltation in waterway channels from indiscriminate land clearing operations

f) Localised continuous heavy rainfall

g) Tidal backwater effect

h) Inadequate river capacity

(Source : http://static.euronews.com)

(Source : http://floodlist.com)

Some also blamed sand mining activity but so far I've seen no evidence of that except such activity; if any; are being controlled and monitored properly by the authorities.

(Source : http://www.ejolt.org)

I also see other issues need to be addressed :

a) it appears that many people reported experiencing interaction of sea level rise with other climate extremes – a potential rise could be coupled with risk of river floods and high population density. Example, the sea rise at almost the same time of the river/drainage floods. (this was reported in the East Coast)

b) Risk for coastal ecosystem (wetlands, mangroves, coral reefs); increased coral bleaching leading to widespread coral mortality for temperature increases

c) Considerations before any mitigation process – that it will not increase flood risk but to minimize risk to people, property, economy and the environment, ensure residual risk are manageable, mitigation compatibility with the town/urban planning program and other relevant factors,

d) Proper channel management – agree and define success criteria, challenge the need of intervention, act to the risk proportion, Recognize that channel form part of dynamic system

Deal with the course - not Symptom, work with natural processes and deliver multiple objectives, Learn and Adapt,

e) Sediment and Debris control especially during proposed mitigation construction phase, (BIG ISSUE)

f) River Diversion during Construction : to determine the right construction time either high or low flow period. This is because the construction during high flow may increase the velocity of flow from outside the work area due to the constriction of the channel, but, the construction during low flow will decrease the flow velocity and hence, potential erosion and movement of sediments/debris mudflow in the stream channel.

g) future appointed flood mitigation main contractors or sub-contractors; as part of the contractual terms and conditions; to submit proper documentation (not limited to the examples quoted) that takes into account periodical risk assessment, PQP, OSHEMP, Construction Work Method Statement that takes into account JSA/JHA, Sediment Control Plan etc. for all Civil and Structural, Mechanical and Electrical works related to the proposed mitigation

There are other concerns that are not highlighted. Despite they are not within the scope of work, failure to address such issues may also affect the project to a certain extend as well. This require cooperation with all the stakeholders, civil and structural consultants, architects, engineers etc. that may be working in the same area to ensure that the surroundings redevelopment/resettlement to be as consistent as possible with the mitigation works.

According to one random Malaysian Institute of Architects (PAM) report, after a large-scale disaster occurs – for example the recent 2014 flood, it is common to witness the influx of relief efforts from all sectors into the affected areas. This can be seen in the recent flooding where many parties such as NGOs come to the aid of the flood victims. When this aid begins to encroach into construction, in particular new homes, the end result is often confusion and efforts that oppose one another. As aid parties and locals alike rush into the rebuild efforts, it will be obvious that these constructions:

i. may be built in zones not gazetted in any local plan as residential,

ii. may not be built with connectivity to any predesigned or pre-laid infrastructure – example – houses built in the surrounding may have no proper or improper drainage or waste management that is not related/linked directly or indirectly to the mitigation structures

iii. may not comply with any state or federal Uniform Building By-Laws,

iv. may not follow any council guidelines on building construction,

v. may not be approved by council for construction,

vi. may not be inspected by a qualified building professional, and

viii. may not have any certification

The issue here is the people living in the surrounding tend to relate their problems with the proposed mitigation which may lead to unnecessary disputes.

Although of little relevance, but should there be any issues raised, the Consultant, DID and the municipal councils should made it clear that it is not within their jurisdiction but in order to get future cooperation from the general public, meetings should be held with other infra and building developers; if any; working in the vicinity. Other infra and building developers also need to work together with the Consultant and all interested parties especially if the new housing or other infrastructures - example on drainage issues and point of final discharge that do not create a conflict with the proposed mitigation structures.

I always view the business of flood mitigation is always a business of “saving people's lives” and “reducing losses of assets” due to flood disaster.

Thus I would like to suggest that the flood mitigation programs everywhere in Malaysia should be expedited and I am pleading the Government to provide more budget for a better and safer mitigation. 

And whoever says Malaysia do not have the experts or expertise?

We also need to have all government and private sectors to prepare a Flood Disaster – Emergency, Evacuation and Recovery Plan. It should also include counselling sessions to the victims.

Don't wait for another flood to come..

A personal note : When I was co-training Lembaga Urusan Tabung Haji on Flood Disaster, Emergency, Evacuation and Recovery Plan, there was a moment silence during the simulation and drills of Flood Disaster...the sorrow and traumatic experience can still be refreshed clearly - but it was a good therapy. 

Let's stop finger pointing...OK? People are very impatient – some have been waiting for so many years to get a better life without having to fear the monsoon season with traumatic events everytime the coming of a new year. Let's also not depend too much on bright sunny day – we need to have some more concrete action and the time is NOW.

I have so many parties and people to thank especially Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID), The National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM), my fellow team of Consulting Engineers, my fellow partner who recommended and introduced me to the project and so many others who have assisted me to make this FRMP a reality. The DID Guidelines, MASMA (Manual Saliran Mesra Alam), NAHRIM comprehensive researches on Climate Changes are excellent!!

I also have to thank National Security Council, Institution of Engineers Malaysia, Malaysian Institute of Architects, numerous researchers, DEFRA UK, Department of Meteorology Malaysia, Department of Environment Malaysia, Department of Occupational Safety and Health Malaysia, municipal councils, SIRIM and other foreign certification bodies and so many others for having excellent proposals, write-ups, case-studies, guides, standards and codes of practice, researchers etc – all published online for me to refer to.

Malaysia Economic Monitor, December 2015 - Immigrant Labour

Key Findings 

The Malaysian economy continues to expand, albeit at a slower pace.

• Growth is projected to be 4.7% in 2015, easing to 4.5% in 2016 and 2017.
• Private consumption growth is expected to moderate from 7.0% in 2014 to 5.3% in 2015 and 2016, affected by the slowdown in disposable income and a softer labour market, though unemployment remains low.
• Fixed investment is projected to continue expanding, driven by strong public infrastructure development, despite a downturn in the oil and gas sector
• The current account surplus is projected to narrow from 4.3% of GDP in 2014 to 2.5% of GDP in 2015, driven by low commodity prices.
• Malaysia has managed the downturn in commodity prices and the financial market volatility with an appropriate policy mix, notably exchange rate flexibility. 
• The authorities have allowed the Ringgit to nominally depreciate by 20.5% from January 2015 until December 8, 2015.
• The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the removal of fuel subsidies were timely and critical reforms implemented by the government. Fuel subsidy removals have led to fiscal savings of 0.9% of GDP, while GST collection is expected to amount to 2.3% of GDP in 2015.
• These measures partly compensated for lower oil related revenues that are projected to decline from 6% of GDP in 2014 (30% of total revenue) to 3.8% of GDP (19.7% of overall revenues) in 2015.
• Fiscal consolidation and resolving political issues can help reassure foreign investors and cope with heightened external vulnerability.

Immigrant labour plays a crucial role in Malaysia’s development. Immigrants – both high- and low-skilled – will be needed for the country to achieve high income status by 2020.

• Malaysia has the fourth largest number of migrants and the seventh highest ratio of migrants to total population in East Asia Pacific.
• There are 2.1 million registered immigrants in Malaysia and likely over 1 million undocumented immigrants, making up 15% of Malaysia’s workforce in 2014.
• As Malaysians have become more educated and seek out higher-skilled jobs, and as the labour market remains tight, immigrant labour has filled gaps in low- and mid-skilled jobs, which make up three quarters of all jobs in Malaysia.
• Econometric modeling suggests that a 10% net increase in low-skilled foreign workers may increase Malaysia’s GDP by as much as 1.1%.
• For every 10 new immigrant workers in a given state and sector, up to five new jobs may be created for Malaysians in that state and sector, two of them female.  
• Economic modelling suggests that a 10 percent net increase in low-skilled foreign workers may increase real GDP by up to 1.1 percent. 
• A 10% increase in immigration flow slightly increases the wages of Malaysians by 0.14%. Yet it significantly reduces salaries of immigrant workers already in the country by 3.94%.  A 10% increase in immigration flow reduces wages of the least-educated Malaysians, which represent 14% of the total labour force, by 0.74%.
• The fiscal burden is mainly borne by undocumented immigrants. Documented immigrants in Malaysia raise employment and wages of Malaysians which in turn contributes to public revenues. Also, levies pay for work permits of documented immigrant workers raising 1.2% of total revenues in 2014, they have to have health insurance which reduces the burden on the government.

Recommendations: Six possible directions for reform for Malaysia to strengthen its immigration system.

• Aligning the institutional and legislative framework with the human resource development strategy;
• Establishing an evidence-based system for identifying labour market shortages that immigrant labour can fill;
• Adopting a live-levy system that responds to labour market needs identified in the evidence-based system;
• Using a broader set of criteria to categorize immigrants (i.e. skills, experience) and defining approaches for their recruitment, employment, and repatriation;
• Strengthening monitoring and enforcement of immigration and labour regulations; and
• Investing in upskilling the unskilled workforce, and promoting productivity-enhancing technology.

(Full report : Please e-mail nikzafri@yahoo.com) 

2016

STAR WARS - THE FORCE AWAKENS

‪#‎theforceawakens‬ ‪#‎starwars‬

So, I've seen the most awaited and much anticipated - "Star Wars The Force Awakens"

I'm impressed; after all these years; the 'feel' of the original "Star Wars" has been remarkably portrayed. It has succeeded to remind my generation of the 1976 - 77 badge of the good old days when it first appeared on the big screen. The special-effects, CGIs etc. are spectacular!!

Kylo Ren is definitely going to be the new Sith warrior - possibly better than Darth Vader. Am sure by now the Siths have learnt their lessons not to underestimate the Jedis.

(I kinda like Ren's real name : Ben - somehow the name must have been taken in honour of Ben Kenobi - Obiwan)

The Sith have even improvised the Storm Trooper with some sort of electrical sword to fight with the traditional light-saber held by Finn in one scene.

Even the Supreme Leader Snoke is cautious enough to complete Ren's training only after proving himself with the brutal murder of his own father (Han Solo RIP) to nurture the strong feeling of the dark side. And you have the new more confident General who can speak face to face with Kylo Ren and criticize him without fear in the presence of the Supreme Leader)

(Snoke is possibly from the bloodline of Asajj Ventress (Assaj like Snoke are "very bad news" - even worse than Chancellor Palpatine a.k.a. the Emperor. Maz Kanata on the other hand is related to Yoda) And Rey is obviously Luke's daughter! (Well, R2D2 did "light up" in Rey's presence and not Luke)

(You can figure this all out if you are really a pure Star Wars fan - reading all the Star Wars books (to see the "crossovers", "side stories etc), playing all the Star Wars computer games and watching all the animated versions of Star Wars) and most important, the name KATHLEEN KENNEDY - you should be aware of NOT George Lucas)

But I will not be surprised at all if Rey turned out to be Solo-Organa's bloodline or lost bloodline of Kenobis even. (you all know that it is prohibited for a Jedi to be married)

But for now I'm sticking to Luke being Rey's father ("Luke has much of his father in him" - to Quote : Aunt Beru and Uncle Owen - so like his father Anakin, Luke crossed the line by secretly getting married but found out that his wife is either another Sith or probably being murdered by some Sith Lord - and Luke took Rey to safety on Jakuul - just like Obiwan did to him on Tatooine)

Ok, that being said, now for the dissapointments!!

1) The story has too much plot of Episode 4 (A New Hope) and Episode 6 (Return of the Jedi) - you know "the rebellion", "death star" (even the new version is like 100X bigger "LOL")..

I am unsure why JJ Abrams put the new story in that manner. As a fan of Star Trek as well (Trekkie): at least "Star Trek" and "Star Trek : Into the Darkness" have made courageous "BIG CHANGES"

2) The idea having cameo appearance of Luke Skywalker to only be seen at the last scene has caused much dissapointment to the Star Wars 1st generation.

3) Too much surprises spoil the plot.

4) A bit of "Harry Potter" approach - using light saber instead of a wand.

5) I sincerely hope that it's not like:

"No...you're seeing Episode 10 actually, not Episode 7 ("JJ Abram's twist")... - just like the "Lucas" twist showing Episodes 4, 5 and 6 first - then 1, 2, 3.

The good things about Star Wars The Force Awakens :

a) it has triggered the fans "to be forced" to watch the story till the end (with no proper conclusion)

b) it is a totally new story of Star Wars for the new generation

c) an introduction to new warriors and faces of the new age - Ren, Rey, Poe and Finn (my guess is Finn and Poe - could be potential new Jedis) - the Fans are saying that Finn is related to Lando Calrissian! And we have this new cute BB8 as a new ally to R2D2 and C3PO.

d) I will definitely wait for next movie scheduled for 2017

Whatever it is, I'm glad that I am still a Star Wars fan!

(Nik Zafri)

PSIKOLOGI DAGANGAN FOREX

Artikel berikut merujuk kepada beberapa buah artikel lain – telah ditulis dan disesuaikan semula bagi kemudahan rujukan.

Agak lama juga saya tidak menulis mengenai sentimen pasaran dan faktor psikologi yang mempengaruhinya. Kali ini saya akan menuliskan mengenai isu psikologi dalam dagangan FOREX.

Walaupun FOREX melibatkan banyak angka, kebarangkalian dan carta, Forex; bagi saya; adalah lebih kepada “seni daripada sains”. Anda hanya perlu bermodalkan bakat dan keyakinan diri untuk memulakan langkah. Pedagang Forex yang baik biasanya menyalurkan kemahiran menerusi latihan berterusan dan disiplin yang tinggi. Mereka melakukan analisa sendiri bagi mengenalpasti apakah yang sebenarnya menguatkan dagangan mereka, bagaimana untuk mengendalikan rasa takut dan memadamkan rasa ‘tamak’ kerana psikologi perdagangan FOREX sebenarnya tidaklah terlalu bergantung kepada sentimen seperti pasaran saham.

A. SASARAN DAN TEKNIK

a. Anda perlu ada sasaran. Pilihlah satu kaedah (teknik) yang sesuai dengan sasaran kita. Pastikan kita selesa dan biasa dengan teknik berkenaan dan tidak terlalu terpengaruh dengan cara orang lain.

Sebelum memulakan perjalanan, adalah penting kita mengetahui destinasi dan cara untuk sampai ke sana. Dengan kata lain, kita memerlukan :

a. sasaran yang boleh diukur dan apa yang sebenarnya yang ingin dicapai,

b. kita sudah pun mempunyai kaedah (teknik) dagangan.

Jadi sasaran itu penting sebenarnya bagi anda. Tuliskan di atas sehelai kertas jika perlu. Teknik yang anda pilih sangat penting kerana setiap teknik mempunyai pendekatan dan risiko yang berbeza serta sikap yang betul dalam berdagang.

Contohnya kita ingin memantau dagangan kita dalam kedudukan terbuka (open position) dalam pasaran (contohnya teknik ‘scalping’), maka, kita perlu berdagang mengikut kekangan masa dan sasaran (contohnya jumlah pip yang tetap) yang kita sendiri tetapkan samada beberapa jam sehingga maksimanya 24 jam (hari) (daily trade)

Jika kita mempunyai modal yang besar dan dapat bersabar walaupun tempoh dagangan sehingga 2-3 bulan demi keuntungan yang lebih besar, maka anda perlu menjadi seorang ‘position trader’.

Kesimpulannya, jika anda menggunakan teknik yang silap serta tidak sesuai dengan perwatakan anda, maka kerugian akan menyebabkan tekanan psikologi yang tinggi.

Forex akan menjadi satu bentuk perjudian kerana anda tidak dapat menerima ‘kekalahan’ – lalu anda terus melaburkan lebih banyak wang dengan harapan untuk mendapat pulangan yang tinggi. Ini sebenarnya BUKAN ciri-ciri pelaburan tetapi ianya lebih kepada ‘pertaruhan’.

Jika anda bersikap sebegini, maka lebih baik anda jangan berkecimpung dalam arena FOREX kerana jelas anda tidak faham bahawa perdagangan Forex sebenarnya berkonsepkan “perniagaan” dan tentunya sesuatu perniagaan itu tertakluk kepada dua kata kunci utama – UNTUNG dan RUGI.

Bagi pedagang FOREX yang berpengalaman, “Rugi” itu sebenarnya bukanlah “rugi yang tidak patut berlaku”, tetapi ianya satu bentuk pelaburan untuk anda lebih matang. Yang penting setelah anda faham mengenai “rugi”, maka apa yang penting bagi anda ialah memikirkan pula untuk membuat “untung”. Keseimbangan psikologi seperti inilah yang diperlukan bagi mengendalikan perasaan anda yang tidak menentu terutamanya mereka yang baru ingin mula berkecimpung di bidang ini.

B. MEMILIH BROKER

Cari seorang broker atau seorang pedagang Forex yang mempunyai cukup pengalaman untuk memberikan bimbingan kepada anda. Biasanya seorang pedagang Forex yang baik akan mencadangkan tapak dagangan yang sesuai dengan pola perdagangan anda.

Adalah satu faktor yang penting bagi memilih broker yang menawarkan tapak dagangan yang membuka ruang untuk anda membuat analisa yang diperlukan.

Cara memilih broker yang betul ialah membuat satu kajian dan perbandingan di antara satu broker dengan satu broker yang lain. Anda juga perlu mengetahui dasar yang ditetapkan oleh broker dan bagaimana dia memasuki pasaran.

Contohnya pasaran dagangan (diniagakan) di atas kaunter atau pasaran spot sangat berbeza dengan pasaran yang dipandu oleh pertukaran (matawang)

Jika anda ingin menggunakan teknik penomboran Fibonacci (rambang dan tidak mengikut turutan), pastikan tapak dagangan yang disyorkan oleh broker dapat memaparkan garisan Fibonacci.

Senario :

1) Seorang broker yang cekap tetapi menggunakan tapak dagangan yang tidak sesuai atau

2) seorang broker yang tidak cekap tetapi menggunakan tapak dagangan yang baik akan menimbulkan masalah.

Pastikan anda mendapatkan broker yang cekap dengan tapak dagangan yang sesuai.

C. KAEDAH

Sebelum memasuki pasaran, anda perlu tahu perkara-perkara asas dalam dagangan terutamanya teknik mana yang anda ingin gunakan. Anda perlu mendapat maklumat yang mencukupi bagi menentukan bila untuk ‘masuk’ dan bila untuk ‘keluar’.

a) Cara fundamental : Ada yang memilih untuk melihat suasana ekonomi semasa kemudian menggunakan carta bagi menentukan masa yang paling sesuai untuk berdagang

b) Ada pula yang memilih analisa teknikal dan menggunakan carta bagi menentukan sendiri jangkamasa yang sesuai untuk berdagang. (contohnya 5-6 jam atau sehari atau seminggu atau bila untuk keluar (entry) dan bila untuk masuk (exit)

Yang pastinya cara fundamental (a) memandu trend jangkapanjang manakala corak carta (pattern) (b) biasanya digunakan untuk tempohjangkapendek.

Apapun kaedah yang anda pilih, ingatlah yang penting ialah anda perlu konsisten dengan teknik berkenaan di samping tetap bersedia untuk fleksibel mengikut suasana pasaran. Dengan kata lain, sentiasa mengambilkira kepekaan mengenai perubahan dinamik pasaran.

D. FREM MASA PANJANG (ANALISA BERARAH) DAN FREM MASA SINGKAT (PENENTUAN TITIK 'KELUAR' DAN 'MASUK')

Ramai pedagang yang keliru kerana terdapat konflik maklumat semasa memantau carta dalam frem masa yang berbeza. Apa yang dilihat sebagai peluang pembelian mungkin sebenarnya ialah isyarat untuk menjual pada carta intraday.

Jadi, anda perlu memastikan bahawa carta mingguan dan merujuksilang kepada carta harian sehingga ianya memaparkan isyarat yang sama samada ‘beli’ atau ‘jual’.

5. PENGIRAAN JANGKAN (MENGIKUT SASARAN) 

Jangkaan (Expectancy) merupakan satu formula yang boleh digunakan untuk memastikan keberkesanan sistem yang digunakan.

Cuba semak kembali sejarah dagangan anda yang lepas dengan membandingkan ‘kemenangan’ dan ‘kekalahan’. Kemudian buat pengiraan ke atas dagangan yang berjaya dan bandingkan berapa banyak kerugian dagangan yang anda telah alami.

Lihat 10 dagangan akhir. Sekiranya anda masih belum berdagang, lihat carta di mana sistem yang anda gunakan menunjukkan indicator samada anda perlu ‘keluar’ atau ‘masuk’. Pastikan anda dapat membuat jangkaan terhadap untung dan rugi dagangan. Tuliskan hasil ini di atas kertas. Jumlahkan kadar ‘kemenangan’ anda menggunakan formula berikut.

J= [1+ (M/K)] x P – 1

di mana :

J        =        Jangkaan

M      =        Purata Dagangan yang Menang (Win)

K       =        Purata Dagangan yang Kalah (Loose)

P       =        Peratusan Nisbah Kemenangan

Contohnya : Jika anda telah lakukan 10 dagangan dan enam daripadanya adalah dagangan yang menang manakala bakinya (4) adalah yang kalah, maka nisbahnya ialah 6/10 atau 60%. Jika 6 dagangan = USD2,400.00, maka purata kemenangan ialah USD2400/6 = USD400.00.

Jika kekalahan anda berjumlah USD1,200.00, maka kerugian purata anda ialah USD1,200/4 = USD300.

Gunakan keputusan formula ini dan hasilnya ialah :

J = [1+ (400/300)] x 0.6 - 1 = 0.40 atau 40%.

40% jangkaan bermakna sistem yang anda gunakan akan memberikan pulangan 40 sen setiap dollar dalam tempoh jangkamasa yang panjang.

 6. TUMPUKAN PADA DAGANGAN DAN BELAJAR MENERIMA KERUGIAN YANG KECIL

Setelah membiayai akaun anda, perkara yang paling penting ialah untuk memahami bahawa modal anda sedang berada dalam risiko apatah lagi jika wang yang anda laburkan itu sebenarnya adalah duit untuk membayar bil utiliti atau belanja harian atau bulanan atau simpanan anda.

Mungkin idea saya agak janggal untuk anda. Tetapi cuba beranggapan bahawa modal pelaburan anda adalah belanja untuk bercuti. Maka setiap kali percutian itu tamat, maka belanja untuk cuti juga telah habis.

Berdasarkan anggapan ini, dengan sendirinya anda telah bersedia untuk menerima kerugian yang kecil dan ini merupakan kunci dalam menguruskan risiko anda. Dengan memberikan tumpuan kepada dagangan anda, maka anda telah bersedia untuk menerima kerugian yang kecil daripada sentiasa mengira jumlah ekuiti anda. Anda pasti akan berjaya!

Pastikan anda melakukan leverage ke atas dagangan anda ke risiko maksimanya hanyalah dua (2) peratus dari pembiayaan anda. Katakanlah anda mempunyai USD10,000 dalam akaun dagangan anda, jangan sampai anda kerugian lebih daripada 2% daripada nilai akaun.

Sekiranya anda dapati ‘stop’ (pemberhentian) anda melencong jauh daripada 2%, gunakan dagangan dalam frem masa yang singkat atau kurangkanleverage  anda.

7. MEMBINA SUASANA POSITIF

Kitaran maklumbalas yang positif dihasilkan menerusi dagangan yang seimbang dengan perancangan anda. Jika anda merancang untuk berdagang dan anda berjaya, maka akan tercipta satu corak maklumbalas yang positif.  Apatah lagi jika sesuatu kejayaan diikuti dengan lebih kejayaan sekaligus menghasilkan rasa keyakinan – terutamanya apabila dagangan anda menguntungkan. Walaupun anda mengalami kerugian yang kecil, kekalkan kitaran maklumbalas yang positif.

8. Melakukan Analisa Pada Hujung Minggu

Adalah satu sikap yang baik untuk bersedia lebih awal. Pada hujung minggu bila pasaran ditutup, cuba luangkan masa untuk meneliti carta mingguan bagi melihat corak atau berita yang memberikan kesan kepada dagangan anda. Mungkin corak menunjukkan double top dan pelabur-pelabur lain termasuk berita yang anda terima menunjukkan market reversal.

Kemungkinan ini juga satu muslihat untuk memikat anda ke dalam pasaran supaya mereka dapat menjual posisi mereka dalam keadaan tambahan kecairan. Maka kita kena membuat strategi yang sesuai dengan suasana seperti ini. Jadi, jika anda mengesyaki perkara ini berlaku, maka lebihkan masa untuk melihat berita dan fakta daripada mendengar khabar atau spekulasi dari pelabur-pelabur lain.

Seandainya pasaran tidak menunjukkan sebarang titik masuk, maka anda perlu rileks dan menanti peluang sehingga masanya sesuai. Jika anda terlepas sesuatu dagangan, tentunya ada peluang untuk memasukinya kemudian. Maka pentingnya anda bersabar dan mempunyai disiplin yang tinggi untuk menjadi seorang pedagang yang baik.

9. SIMPAN LOG DAGANGAN ANDA

Cetak rekod dagangan anda kerana anda boleh belajar sesuatu dari sejarah dagangan (terutamanya yang menang). Semak kembali dan tuliskan sebab-sebab untuk berdagang termasuk mana-mana elemen fundamental yang mempengaruhi keputusan anda.

Tandakan carta berkenaan dengan titik masuk dan keluar. Catatkan sebarang komen di atas carta berkenaan.

Failkan rekod ini supaya anda dapat melihatnya pada bila-bila masa yang anda suka. Tanyakan diri anda semasa melihat rekod-rekod ini – adakah anda panik? Adakah anda tamak? Adakah anda terlalu berjaga-jaga? Tuliskan apa yang anda rasakan. Hanya dengan menentukan objektif dagangan anda, barulah anda akan belajar kawalan perasaan dan disiplin mengikut sistem yang anda telah tetapkan daripada bergantung kepada tabiat.

Ini adalah antara cara-cara untuk berdagang secara berstruktur dan hasilnya, anda akan lebih matang dalam perdagangan.

Perdagangan adalah suatu cabang kesenian – dan terdapat hanya satu cara sahaja untuk menjadi matang dalam dagangan – iaitu peningkatan dalam kecekapan menerusi amalan yang konsisten dan disiplin yang tinggi.

Lebih banyak latihan serta pengalaman yang dilakukan, maka lebih matanglah dagangan anda.