Something to ponder. There are some 'good lessons' we can learn here. The article may appear 'a bit old' but most of what the author suggested here still apply! Having reading it, it makes me wonder sometimes...are we or are we not doing the right thing? Read it and tell me what you think.

Original Source : http://www.deanlebaron.com/book/ultimate/chapters/econ_forecast.html

Economic Forecasting (updated 27 Feb 99)

Almost every financial services firm has an extensive economic forecasting effort. It is usually part of a so-called 'top-down' investment process, which starts with an outlook for the economy and monetary conditions, continues to the strongest industries, follows with detailed company study for stock selection and may include an overlay of technical analysis to provide a timing dimension. Some would add analysis of social and political conditions even before economic studies

Economic forecasts derive from models - usually of the aggregate national or global economy, but sometimes of parts of those economies: particular industrial sectors, regions of the world or even single products or firms. Basic approaches to forecasting simply extrapolate the past; more sophisticated models attempt to understand the sources of past changes and build them into their forecasts. The latter requires knowledge of economic history and economic principles, though, even then, forecasting is by no means an exact science. But while the accuracy of economists' predictions is frequently a target of jokes, forecasting remains a popular pursuit.

Forecasts for the macroeconomy are published regularly by academic institutions, thinktanks, governments, central banks and international organizations like the OECD and the IMF. In these places, modeling can, to a certain extent, be conducted free of the constraint of producing quick and usable data on a daily basis. But in the investment world, forecasts are required to be done 'early and often'. A relatively short-term outlook is normally the limit of their aspirations - what will happen to interest rates within the next month? - with decision-makers demanding rapid output that they hope will be directly relevant to their immediate problems.

Much of the output of financial market models is naturally closely guarded in the hope that it may bring advantage to its owners and their clients. But, at the same time, investment economists like to maintain a public profile for marketing purposes, and are often called on by the media to give their opinion on the latest macroeconomic developments. Their interpretations of economic data may give some clues as to how the financial markets will react, though more often than not, they are explaining why the markets have already reacted as they did. Invariably, too, there are disagreements about what various indicators mean, depending on different beliefs about the economy, and whether the firm is taking an optimistic or pessimistic view of the markets.

Each month, the Economist polls a group of financial forecasters and calculates the average of their predictions for real GDP growth, consumer price inflation and current account balances in a variety of countries. More specialized services like Consensus Economics survey over three hundred economists each month and offer details on average private sector predictions.

Economic forecasting guru: Peter Bernstein

Despite the pressures for 'early and often' forecasts, a number of Wall Street and City economists do as good a job as any forecasters, among them Abby Joseph Cohen, Steve Roach and Ed Hyman. Most such investment economists are good students of market conditions - careful keepers of useful data, and on occasion creative in extracting some kind of signal out of the noise. Ed Yardeni, for example, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, turns his website into a cyber chart room. If you want to access data and view charts, Yardeni's site is an essential stop. He also makes his commentary available in a section for clients that is password protected, but a substantial amount of the content is openly accessible.

One economic commentator stands amid the few that many of us would class as the best: Peter Bernstein. He grew up heading his father's investment firm, Bernstein MacCauley in New York. He was the first editor of the Journal of Portfolio Management, founded by Gil Kaplan, and has received many awards, among them the highest honor granted by the investment management industry's professional body, the Association of Investment Management & Research.

Bernstein is able to walk on both streets - with practitioners and academics. He writes a newsletter, Economics and Portfolio Strategy, to test and disseminate his analyses. And writing is one of his main strengths: his two books on the history of risk and on how 'capital ideas' came to Wall Street have been regulars on the business bestseller lists during the 1990s.

Like a good academic, Bernstein marshals all the arguments, especially those that are counter to his own position. His mid-February 1998 letter, for example, examined the case for exuberant stock prices in the United States, giving particular emphasis to the markets' reliance upon an all-knowing Federal Reserve for economic management. Bernstein concluded that 'stocks are a risky investment and should be managed accordingly'. Since that analysis was approximately the same as his November 1997 conclusion, he was ahead of the wave and for the right reasons. Bernstein is also faster than most to admit where he has been wrong and to try to examine what led him astray - or, as he jokes, 'what led the market astray when it failed to act the way I thought it would'.

Counterpoint

Financial analysts are professional forecasters. But why study the economy, a traditional lagging indicator, if you want to forecast investment measures? The investment record of this process is only rarely better than random - and when you take account of the expenses of achieving these results, they come out a little bit less than chance. Why do it at all with that unconvincing record of success?

Economic forecasts are supposed to be meaningful. But if you believe that asset prices reflect a forecast of future outcomes, it would seem quite difficult to use a technique that reaches back into the past to get an idea of the future. But that is what economic forecasting does. It is teased for forecasting three recessions for every one that actually happens. No wonder it is called the dismal science.

Financial Times economics columnist Sir Samuel Brittan makes a pointed reflection on the practice of forecasting: 'The golden rule for economic forecasters is: forecast what has already happened and stay at the cautious end. Forecasts tell us more about the present and the recent past than about the future.'

Poor methods, bad models and inaccurate data are all blamed for the recurrence of serious forecast errors. But according to Oxford economics professor David Hendry, these are not the primary cause of systematic mistakes. Rather, unanticipated large changes within the forecast period are the culprit. The primary fault in economic forecasting is not rapidly adjusting the forecasts once they go wrong.

Hendry uses an analogy from rocket science: a rocket to the moon is forecast to reach there at a precise time and location, and usually does so. But if it is hit by a meteor and knocked off course - or destroyed - the forecast is systematically badly wrong. That outcome need not suggest poor engineering or bad forecasting models - and certainly does not suggest that Newtonian gravitation theory is incorrect.

Guru response

Peter Bernstein comments: 'For better or worse, economic forecasting is an essential ingredient in investing because earnings and interest rates are both conditional on economic conditions. So you have to do it or use it in some fashion. Furthermore, although a forecast of next quarter's GDP or even next year's earnings per share may be wrong, the kind of forecasting I do - and really that Abby Cohen does too - is to try to define the basic environment - inflationary or not, fast growth or not, competitive or not, and so on. That kind of thing is most helpful and has paid the biggest dividends over the years, not just in this cycle.'

At the front of this book is further commentary from Peter Bernstein: a grand sweeping history of the markets reprinted from the 1 December 1998 issue of his newsletter.

Where next?

Forecasting is a key task in financial institutions because of the profound effects economic developments can have on potential profits. And while leading economic indicators might provide a hint as to what the economic future holds, they do not anticipate what the additional effects of powerful economic agents like government policy and the financial markets themselves might be. To try to get ahead of the competition, companies will aim to model more accurately, and with more consideration of possible discontinuities in the markets.

One way to make forecasts more useful - though not necessarily better - might be to follow the principle of 'truth-in-labeling' used on food packages and elsewhere. We could describe the kind of forecast we are making more accurately. For example, if we are using backtesting, we should say that that is exactly what we are doing and which of two varieties.

One form of backtesting is 'momentum': the forecast is derived from a view that the past momentum will continue in roughly the same direction - often straight line - as it has in the past. The other form is 'regression to the mean': we think things will not go back or up or down, but return to average conditions. This is like a series of coin flips that goes ninety-nine times in one direction, and we think the next event is related to the preceding one.

Alternatively, we can say that our forecast comes from our own insight or novelty, and label it that way so we know that it is essentially out of our head and our own creativity - or lack of creativity, which we will know in time. Sometimes different techniques like high-frequency forecasting come from this. Or it can come from news and our response to new news. This is not necessarily insider information but news that is not necessarily generally recognized by others - a form of forecasting derived from information.

Finally, the most common form of forecasting is waffle: we do benchmark investing or stick to the middle because we do not know what else to do. That is perfectly all right, but we should label it as such. Let us say that is what we are doing, so people can understand what they are getting when they listen to us. Most of the time, a waffle is the right thing to do, but at all times, we can make our forecasts better by correctly labeling them.

Read on

In print

Peter Bernstein, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk Peter Bernstein, Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street Peter Bernstein's newsletter Economics and Portfolio Strategy Reports from Consensus Economics

Online

econwpa.wustl.edu/EconFAQ/ - Bill Goffe's 'resources for economists on the internet', one of the best entry points on the internet for economic information
www.economics.ox.ac.uk/hendry/Frontpage.htm - David Hendry's research project on the econometrics of macroeconomic forecasting
www.economist.com - website of The Economist
www.ft.com - website of the Financial Times
www.yardeni.com - Ed Yardeni's website
--------------------------------
Almerica's Response (in blue) : Posted: 18 September 2005 at 10:27pm and Nik Zafri's Response (in red) : 24 September 2005 at 7:53pm

nikzafri wrote:

.....But, at the same time, investment economists like to maintain a public profile for marketing purposes, and are often called on by the media to give their opinion on the latest macroeconomic developments. Their interpretations of economic data may give some clues as to how the financial markets will react, though more often than not, they are explaining why the markets have already reacted as they did. Invariably, too, there are disagreements about what various indicators mean, depending on different beliefs about the economy, and whether the firm is taking an optimistic or pessimistic view of the markets.

This is where the danger lies where the urge to maintain a public profile for marketing purposes may cloud vital information that could have been made transparent to the public. More often than not publicity seekers thrive on being the bearer of good news and thus conceal certain information on the repercussions that could happen no matter how small the potential risk is which they already know before hand but in their opinion are not likely to occur. Only thing is that things don't always go as planned.

Yeap...highlight the good things and hide the 'bad' things - when we get these kind of people, do reverse reading - highlight the bad things and hide the good things - that's exactly what they are doing.

I ain't worried - as I know that in the end, these kind of 'soothsayers' will ask the infamous question - "who moved my cheese?"

nikzafri wrote:

....The investment record of this process is only rarely better than random - and when you take account of the expenses of achieving these results, they come out a little bit less than chance. Why do it at all with that unconvincing record of success?

It is actually due to the fact that it is the bread and butter of any analysts. lol

I think a true analyst conducts proper analysis. He/she should know for the fact that if there have been repetitive trends of "unconvincing records of success' derived from their so-called 'nostradamous' capabilities - these kind of 'analysts' should seriously consider looking for a new job. When you have to go, you have to go - your time is over - go find something else rather than 'clouding' people's minds.

nikzafri wrote:

Economic forecasts are supposed to be meaningful. But if you believe that asset prices reflect a forecast of future outcomes, it would seem quite difficult to use a technique that reaches back into the past to get an idea of the future. But that is what economic forecasting does. It is teased for forecasting three recessions for every one that actually happens. No wonder it is called the dismal science.

To a certain extent it is important eventhough it is dismal. It serves as a guideline for every individual's decision making process. They need to know the details, what to expect and understand what could and could not happen. They need to know the details so that they will be prepared for any direction the market turns. Many plan and know what they will do when they get windfalls but how many have a plan B or plan C to prepare themselves for adverse situations. So such economic forecasts which are genuine and transparent are always needed but to the individual it is not a recipe of success but rather an eye opener to help you prepare for the potential good as well as the potential bad.

Yes my friend, nowadays, nobody can really forecast by merely depending/trusting figures/statistics or merely conventional economic hypotheses - you have to 'experience' it yourself....there is a saying - "The analysis tools/mechanisms are not meant to change the formal decision making - sometimes good decisions are based merely on intuition" Despite there are abundance of these tools, sometimes a real businessman should trust his 'business instinct'

nikzafri wrote:

Financial Times economics columnist Sir Samuel Brittan makes a pointed reflection on the practice of forecasting: 'The golden rule for economic forecasters is: forecast what has already happened and stay at the cautious end. Forecasts tell us more about the present and the recent past than about the future.' Hendry uses an analogy from rocket science: a rocket to the moon is forecast to reach there at a precise time and location, and usually does so. But if it is hit by a meteor and knocked off course - or destroyed - the forecast is systematically badly wrong. That outcome need not suggest poor engineering or bad forecasting models - and certainly does not suggest that Newtonian gravitation theory is incorrect.

This is absolutely true. Notice how inaccurate certain analysis have been at times. Many are still not aware that it is no longer the reliable and predictable conditions that we have all been so accustomed to throughout the past one or two decades. There have been quantum leaps of advancements and the extent that what is a sure thing today could be a thing of the past. At the draw of a pen, embargos could be imposed or lifted, closed economies could be opened up. Tecnological discoveries occur almost every week...what was once invested as a need suddenly becomes a white elephant even before the investments have been amortized. What was once affordable could suddenly become free thus opening the gates to all of your competitors which run at lower operating costs to eat into your business. And then you get the daily news of violence and natural disasters. Economic analysts can never provide the framework of what to do when such things occur because it was never expected in the first place. Therefore the risks today deepens because the number of affecting factors (besides just statistical numbers and charts) have just grown out of hand.

I call this 'unwanted risk taking' and 'gambling' - based on luck and a little bit of law of probability..that's all. Indeed, the most dangerous path and pitfall!

nikzafri wrote:

Where next? Forecasting is a key task in financial institutions because of the profound effects economic developments can have on potential profits. And while leading economic indicators might provide a hint as to what the economic future holds, they do not anticipate what the additional effects of powerful economic agents like government policy and the financial markets themselves might be. To try to get ahead of the competition, companies will aim to model more accurately, and with more consideration of possible discontinuities in the markets. One way to make forecasts more useful - though not necessarily better - might be to follow the principle of 'truth-in-labeling' used on food packages and elsewhere. We could describe the kind of forecast we are making more accurately...

Exactly!

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 09 December 2005 at 4:02pm

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/opinion.aspx?ID=BD4A125014

Nik's comments - in my opinion, I wouldn't say that the following article is meant exclusively for fund managers but we too can learn something out of it as well (in our very own capacities)

Opinion & Analysis

Posted to the web on: 08 December 2005 - Ingredients of success for fund managers - Matthew de Wet

WE KNOW that relying on past performance alone to select a fund manager is likely to produce disappointing results. We also know intuitively that fund managers that display certain characteristics — for example, a solid process and sensible philosophy — are more likely to be successful.

But are there any specific fund-manager attributes that have proven to increase the likelihood of success?

The answer is yes, according to a study that recently appeared in the Canadian Investment Review. The study, which took place over the six-year period ending December 2003, considers hundreds of different investment managers across different regions, and analyses how a number of different organisational and process factors affect the ability of the fund manager to produce superior results. Of the 17 factors tested, four were identified as being statistically significant in explaining an investment manager’s performance:

Ownership: The study concluded that investment management firms that have a high degree of employee ownership are more likely to produce superior results than those that have little or no employee ownership. This is intuitive as the greater the degree of ownership, the greater the incentive for employees to perform well.

Low personnel turnover: It was shown that firms that had a high degree of turnover in key investment staff tended to produce inferior results compared with those that had low turnover. It was also concluded that low levels of staff turnover were positively correlated with the level of ownership — that is, boutique firms tend to have lower levels of turnover of key investment individuals and that this manifested itself in superior performance.

Number of counters: The conclusion here was that as portfolios became too diversified in terms of the number of counters held, the tendency to generate outperformance decreased. Again, this is intuitive as the more counters held, the lower the tracking error and the higher the likelihood of producing average returns. Further, the study also highlighted the fact that the larger a firm, the more likely it was to have a low tracking error. It suggests that this is further evidence of the tendency of larger firms to manage portfolios in a manner that reduces business risk rather than investment risk.

Bottom-up: This factor relates to the percentage of the investment process that was focused on top-down asset allocation, or theme selection, versus bottom-up stock picking. The conclusion was that the greater the focus on bottom-up stock picking, the more likely the firm was to produce superior results.

It is interesting to note that the first three factors are more closely aligned with entrepreneurial or “boutique” type investment firms (which tend to have a high degree of employee ownership, lower key staff turnover and portfolios with higher tracking errors) than they are with large, institutional type firms. The fourth factor is not specifically aligned to boutique or institutional type managers.

A number of factors that one may expect to have an effect on the ability of managers to perform could not be conclusively proven. These included portfolio turnover, age of firm, number of staff, and number of management visits.

The study suggests that potential investors are well served by identifying boutique investment firms with low staff turnover, whose process is one of active, bottom-up stock picking.

* De Wet is head of investments at Nedgroup Investments.

The Star Global Malaysians Forum

nikzafri-11 January 2006 at 9:48pm wrote:

Someone very wise** once told me (in 1998) - during my 'downfall' (** - Ybhg Tuan Haji Ahmad bin Che Din of Taman Merdeka, Selama, Perak - my mentor) 1. Invest in Gold 2. Invest in Agricultural Products Not long after that, the Honourable Tun Dr. Mahathir started to talk about prospects of 'Dinar Emas and Gold Coins'. In 2005, YAB Prime Minister, Dato Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi gave further and stronger emphasis on expanding the prospects of Biotechnology (focus : agricultural). It's not something to be too serious about or 'hitting the panic button' scenario but it's something worth pondering. ----------------------------- Today, as reported in the Star : http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/1/11/nation/13075088&sec=nation Rising value of gold makes it a good investment By EDWARD RAJENDRA edward@thestar.com.my KLANG: Step aside, athletes. Businessmen are going for gold these days. Federal and Selangor Indian Goldsmith Association adviser N.P. Raman believe that businessmen and cash-rich people were purchasing gold for investment. “It is business logic to include gold in a diversified investment portfolio. Gold can act as a hedge against inflation. Keeping your assets in gold is sound economic sense,” he said. Yesterday, the gold price stood at RM2,090 an ounce, compared with RM1,617 on June 5 last year. Raman said that for those with cash, gold was a good buy as long-term savings, and added that gold coins would be a better choice. “A person who buys gold coins now would get the market price of the day when he decides to sell it,” he said. Going by the market trend now, Raman said, the price of gold was expected to escalate. “Right now, it is about RM70 a gram, and is expected to hit RM100 per gram in two to three months,” he said. Raman operates from Jalan Tengku Kelana, where scores of goldsmiths are located. Most of them are worried that middle-income people, who form the bulk of their customers, will not be able to afford gold now. “For Indians, the period between mid-January and March 15 is an auspicious time for weddings. It is a time for a roaring business but now couples are resorting to simple three-pound gold chains instead of nine pounds. Their buying power has weakened,” he said. Nik It's not something to be too serious about or 'hitting the panic button' scenario but it's something worth pondering.

-----------------------------------
Here it comes again :

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/2/3/business/13290549&sec=business

Gold hits 25-year high in London

LONDON: Gold rose to a 25-year high in London as gains in crude oil prices increased speculation that inflation will accelerate, eroding the value of assets such as stocks and bonds.

Gold rose 18% last year in London as investors bought the metal as a hedge against record oil prices stoking inflation.

Oil rose before the United Nations' atomic watchdog meets today to consider referring Iran's nuclear programme to the Security Council, which may impose sanctions the second largest exporter in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).

nikzafri - 02 January 2006 at 5:41pm wrote:
http://www.globalmalaysians.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=465&PN=1
3) ...Have a 'cushion to fall on' in the case of inflation...

“Rising oil prices will continue to keep gold prices buoyant this year, as it's likely to lead to inflation,” Ross Norman, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, said in an interview yesterday.

Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as US$3.85, or 0.7%, to US$573.20 an ounce, the highest since January 1981. It traded at US$572.99 at 10:09am London time.

The situation in Iran was a “double whammy” for the gold market, Norman said.

“It increases geopolitical tension as well as oil prices, both of which are good for gold,” he added.

Crude oil for March delivery rose as much as 63 US cents, or 1%, to US$67.19 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

World gold prices are likely to rise to US$610 an ounce by March/April, but this is unlikely to deter Indians from importing the same amount of the precious metal in 2006 as last year, according to the head of the country's leading bullion trade body.

Mukul Sonawala, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, said on Wednesday that gold could see a small correction before it rose again.

He said a price of US$540 per ounce would provide a buying opportunity.

“There is inherent strength in the market,” Sonawala told Reuters. “All the fundamental factors are pointing to that.” – Agencies
---------------------------
Posted: 24 February 2007 at 3:34pm

My Gold Fact Sheet

Gold price indicates:

a) inherent value
b) quoted currency relative strength

On Supply/Demand

- the price will always be stable and doesn't seem to be much effected by even reduction in supply or in net selling by the bank,

- demand - be it raw material or investment) still going high - (you can simply based on sales of jewellery - ask my wife)

- supply - production results, hedging by mining companies, scrap/net sales by bank -all still going steady

Investment

As Portfolio diversifier. All over the world, calculation is based on standard
returns correlation/volatility.

And of course - Gold is a Reserve Asset.

What? There's more?

- inflation seem to have not much effect on Gold as well,
- Gold is all time purchasing power indicator,
- Gold's liquidity power is guaranteed,
- in case anything happen (even market crash), gold will come to the rescue
- provide confidence, insurance, assurance and security (try keeping them, or perhaps buy a genuine Rolex at least, you'll know)

END OF LINE....

Agriculture

(Search the NET..you'll know)

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 19 May 2006 at 9:17pm

I'm sure you all have seen the headline today in the Star - Stock Market Plunge (all over the world!) I'm not commenting so much on this but the following are some interesting views of mine that you may want to read.

There are too many intellectual views on inflation all over the globe but most of these ‘speculations’ if not treated carefully could be extremely misleading. Of course, inflation happens… and off late this issue tends to be ‘connected’ to the ever rising global crude oil price although this is not only the cause..

Returning to the basics, when services and products/goods prices started to experience a certain rate of increase or we start loosing our purchasing power (or your money becomes worth less than before) then it is very safe to define that ‘these are signs of inflation’. Measuring inflation is usually benchmarked to a basket of services and products/goods on our side and on the production side mainly known as PPI and CPI. Again, these only serve merely as guides as they are still based on conventional random analysis, sampling and ‘playing with a bunch of datum’. But then, how come the CPI rate has remained stable (example in KLCI) despite these rising prices? It’s not just energy alone, there are other rising items as well. Think of other commodities such as health and education. Don’t forget the property market (prices,mortgage,taxes and maintenance)

US Federal Reserve rate hike? This is nothing new!. From my sources, rates have been hiked ‘regularly’ since the last 2 years and I’m sure most economists (be it ‘K’ or ‘P’) and investors will agree with me that that regular hiking will hurt the growth of economy. Another issue is policy making addressing the risk of inflation – another no ending issue! (all depends on future data and ‘blah’, ‘blah’)

To aggravate situation further – SPECULATIONS -spreading ‘DEFCON-type panic’ in the market. Even before the Fed announce the hike, the stocks, bonds, commodities started to be traded lower. Banking and Financial institutions increase their prime lending rate and guess what? Sit back, you’ll be experiencing BLR turbulence known as loans, cards, property etc. etc..

Sometimes unnecessary panic or ‘being too cautious’ may also lead to ‘smart opportunists’ taking advantages. (test the market with 'shocking rumours substantiated by 'so-called' data and see what happens) The 'best' part is that the Feds will still increase the rates even in this ‘simulated chaotic’ situation. I have seen too many times - 'false alarms’/’rumours’ (at first) of rate hike by manipulators/speculators eventually becoming a ‘real one’ (later) eventually due to news of banking & financial institutions 'prematurely planning their ‘rate increasing program’ and sudden change in investment behaviour towards stocks/bonds/commodities/derivatives/futures etc.

Well, it's a common thing, an enemy will attempt to weaken the spirit of another enemy before attacking them.

I have always stressed in this thread :

a) ‘don’t panic’..’relax’,
b) give it just a little bit time,
c) analyse and verify the source of information first..

But some 'smart' people just don’t listen - finally it falls on deaf ears ("Nik you're just being paranoid") Perhaps I am too small to talk

Ok enough with lectures..this time I really wanted to hear something from all of you...please don't turn this into a too hot issue...(even if it does...I won't blame you.)

What is our next action? How to tame inflation? I'll tell you later

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 27 July 2006 at 8:11pm

TYPICAL INDICATORS TO FORECAST ECONOMY

Indicators

a. Prime Interest Rate/Interbank Offerred Rate
b. Mortgage Interest Rate
c. Treasury Yields
d. GDP
e. Crude Oil and Gold Price
f. Unemployment Rate (some look deeper into crime rate)
g. Inflation Rate
------------------------------
Quoting Howard G. Schaefer - In his book 'Economic Trend Analysis for Executives and Investors', Chapter 1 - Introduction

With so many factors to be considered, interpreting economic data is a daunting task. Indeed, attempting to interpret economic data presented in the form of millions, billions, and trillions of dollars is enough to discourage most people. Nevertheless, forecasting economic conditions is an essential element of sound business and investment decisions. To make these decisions executives and investors need a simple and timely method of understanding and evaluating economic data.

Graphs and charts have become very popular for simplifying information. Trend analysis is one of the principal means used to convey economic data to business, investors, and government. That is, statistical data are plotted on a chart so the reader can observe trends. As an example, the index of industrial production for the month of February 1992 was reported as 107.2, representing a 0.4% increase over the preceding January and a 1.4% increase from the preceding year

A published chart showing the trend indicated that the nation's industrial production was improving. But it did not address whether the trend would continue. Executives and investors need to make decisions based on future expectations, not just past performances. Without a consideration of the many factors that affect economic performance, a trend line has limited uses.

A newer technique called relationship analysis provides a much better understanding of economic data and future economic trends than trend analysis. Relationship analysis compares one set of economic data to another to determine whether there is a consistent relationship between the two sets of data that explains current economic conditions and indicates future economic trends. One principal advantage of relationship analysis is that the information is conveyed without the long delay for accumulating the economic data necessary to spot the trend.
--------------------------------
Adapted from the original Posting in The Star Global Malaysians Forum
- Posted: 31 July 2006 at 5:32pm

ECONOMIC FORECASTING - WHAT'S IN IT FOR ME?
(Nik Zafri's version of Forecasting Economy for Dummies)

Most people are scared listening or even coming across economical terminologies. Indeed they (the terminologies) are not ‘laymen user-friendly’. Thus, most of us tend to 'shy away' especially those in small businesses not knowing the consequences of ignoring the current facts/reality of economy. To worsen situation, even the typical accounting tasks such as cash-flow monitoring has been ignored.

Don’t worry, it’s nothing too technical - in fact even economists in many occassions fail to do accurate economical forecasts and most of them end up arguing to defend their hypotheses.

Here’s some simple indicators (what YOU should know – the technical explanations are for the economists to worry about) :

a) GDP – most popular one – to you – don’t wait for the annual results but monitor the implementation of target, if you see in 5-6 months – it’s stil negative, then buckle up.

b) Consumer Price Index – to you – it tells you products/services – price/fee (fluctuations as well) etc. You could almost prophecise that you might be in trouble when you found out that you’re paying MORE than before.

c) Interest rate (it’s rising)– to you - it tells the level of ‘troubleness’ you’re encountering especially if you have a loan to settle.

d) Retail sales – to you – it tells you about your purchasing power, your spending habit, your saving habit, your confidence – you will know or feel these things when you see the word bonus, tax (cut/raise) etc.

e) Employment – to you – well, I guess you’re smart enough to figure this one out. Only two quick tips (out of many) – VSS and unemployed graduates.

The hidden ones are political stability (which you’re also smart enough to know) or 'that look' the traders are giving you when you ask for discounts!

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 12 November 2006 at 8:30pm


Here's something that everyone MUST know :

I have summarised them but the original source is from :

http://www.chartpattern.com/10_golden_rules.html

1. Make sure the stock has a well formed base or pattern before considering purchase.

2. Buy the stock as it moves over the trend line of that base or pattern and make sure that volume is above recent trend shortly after this "breakout" occurs. Never pay up by more than 5% above the trend line. You should also get to know your stock's thirty day moving average volume, which you can find on most stock quote pages

3. Be very quick to sell your stock should it return back under the trend line or breakout point. Usually stops should be set about $1 below the breakout point. The more expensive the stock, the more leeway you can give it, but never have more than a $2 stop loss. Some people employ a 5% stop loss rule. This may mean selling a stock that just tried to breakout and fails in 20 minutes or 3 hours from the time it just broke out above your purchase price.

4. Sell 20 to 30% of your position as the stock moves up 15 to 20% from its breakout point.

5. Hold your strongest stocks the longest and sell stocks that stop moving up or are acting sluggish quickly. Remember stocks are only good when they are moving up.

6. Identify and follow strong groups of stocks and try to keep your selections in the these groups

7. After the market has moved for a substantial period of time, your stocks will become vulnerable to a sell off, which can happen so fast and hard you won't believe it. Learn to set new higher trend lines and learn reversal patterns to help your exit of stocks.

8. Remember it takes volume to move stocks, so start getting to know your stock's volume behavior and the how it reacts to spikes in volume. You can see these spikes on any chart. Volume is the key to your stock's movement and success or failure.

9. Many stocks are mentioned. However just because it's mentioned with a buy point does not mean it's an outright buy when a buy point is touched. One must first see the action in the stock and combine it with its volume for the day at the time that buy point is hit and take keen notice of the overall market environment before considering purchases.

10. Never go on margin until you have mastered the market, charts and your emotions. Margin can wipe you out.

Just got an e-mail (Judging by the style of query, I think the person is either 'economist' or could well be 'an investor') asking me 'what is 'asymmetry'?

Click Here for the definition on the web especially :

"Unequal distribution about one or more axes"

"a branching pattern or shape that lacks a line of symmetry on either side of a median plane"

"Irregular, uneven; without symmetry; having no center or axis where something can be divided evenly"

and on the question how asymmetrical factors relate to the stock market or in the context what we're talking now...KLCI...Click Here for a sample research....(and a very good one too)

Then I think having read these, the forumer will agree on the use of the word 'asymmetry'...

And on the final question of how to become a good 'forecaster' (like Ariffin), in theory, you should first determine 'standard deviation' (e.g. 150-200) and 'correlation efficient' (0.90++) with a typical disclaimer that the price may fall within +/- 2 or 3 times the standard deviation. Alas, this is only a theory - I'm still biased to 'empirical factors' (experience) and 'justification of figures' + 'hunch/intuition' (of course with these combined strengths, you can almost determine the deviation and correlation + tolerance)

But I sincerely wish you would talk openly in this forum as we need your inputs as well. Don't just 'peep-in' and become 'observers'.
------------------------
The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted : 03 January 2007 at 12:21pm

arifin34 wrote:

Oops.... sorry again. I'm apologising cos I don't want to offend anyone, esp. to you all, my dear friends. Oklah, I'm just an ordinary 'economic chartist' (Fred Tam prefers me to stake claim as a 'chartist' or 'technical analyst' - that's coming directly from him) who happens to be trained in develoment economics.... so I think I understand quite a bit on what the other forumers are talking about in this tread (most of you are really farsighted - that augurs well for this thread hey Brigitte aren't the GMN people up there thinking of awarding some kind of Awards as an added incentive?!). I said 'quite a bit' cos nobody actually knows what's going to happen in the real world. Economists are good (very good) at making simplifying assumptions in their analyses. No two economists think alike, I guess... that's why some people even make jokes about the economics profession - a dismal science they say! Why, even the famous London School of Economics placed 'Economics' under the Social Sciences. And mind you, that was George Soros' alma matter! The other irony is that not all economists are exposed to the capital markets (bourses included) even though (to me) "the stock market is the panaceae of capitalist economics"! Most economists I knew were at lost when discussing about the stock market - they knew about the theoretical objectives of having one but not of how it works, and more importantly how one can read and figure out the direction of the trends. That's FORECASTING... and I have learned it not at the universities but purely thru SHELF STUDY. I hope you people realise what I'm trying to say. You see, the good point is: You don't have to be an economist to be a stock market expert but having some economics background really helps - even though sometimes the two don't jive. And last but not least, brush up your knowledge in ICT (e.g. master the tools in the softwares) ..... and become more of a 'pakar ekonomi' & 'pakar IT' rolled up into one, as in the lyrics of 'Keranamu Malaysia'. Then you'll be unbeatable.... and with a bit of luck you can even Beat the Markets! Bye, c u next year! From an 'economic chartist' (or ist it a 'charting economist'?).

I like to agree to Fred Tam. I share the thinking that an economic chartist is also a technical analyst (not 'or' but 'and') - you're just being humble..that's all.

Lemme have the honour of 'analysing' you Bro Ariffin, I haven't done this in a long time - so you must excuse my rusty knowledge

Technical Analysis

Although in your posts, there are still conventional patterns of taking into account past investment returns/prices and relating price vs current value of expected cash flow from investment, I've also noticed some strong elements of quantitative investment analysis in almost ALL your posts which relates further to other variables (e.g. account ratio? - overpriced stocks or stocks with higher ratios of market price to equity book value may generate lower risk-adjusted returns) and there have been attempts using chaos, fractal, & neural. (am not sure about AI)

Charting

Then I'm assuming, you start plotting past prices vs time using charts to detect downward/upward trend which you have always 'predicted' to continue (trend persistence).

You're not too fast cos' it's dangerous for investors but you 'play along' with the flow of 'educating cum alerting' so that people like me can understand and absorb what you're talking about.

To all forumers, charting is not simply hypotheses but it requires a gread deal of experience cos' investors are getting more knowledgeable everyday. It's not simply depending on softwares or system that proclaimed can do everything for you.

Charting 'the bro Ariffin way' (or Fred Tam's way) can also ascertain the trend limit based on peaks/troughs connections and resistance/support levels, osciillators/schochastics - price positioning measurement vs low/high price/momentum and of course empirical factors - using your intuition to expect some 'drastic/erratic' volatilities and investor's psychology.

- that's where we (and/or 'investors') know when to buy or to sell or simply put as 'bear/bull' (also very useful to 'futures' as well)

Additionally - what johndoe said in his views on KLCI 07 is also very accurate - "The stock market is just like wheat harvesting. After a great harvest, the farm must be burned down into ashes creating a natural fertilizer for the next planting/harvest"

whereby I self-termed as the fiscal first quarterly effect - usually after December, there'll be a year-end liquidity rise & tax loss trading reduction - so you should be expecting good times for January, February (but probably not end March) unless what have been promised are being fulfilled -> implementation/performance/ transparency <- the real stuff that I like to see (This para is also self-explanatory of why in some posts, I'm a bit reserved in the KLCI future predictions - but this 'reservation' doesn't imply that I'm pessimistic)

Thus, the abovementioned JohnDoe's views should be intergrated with ariffin's charting/analysis - then investors should be safe!

On my side ; on the other hand; have always been 'picked up here & there' (multiple styles) of looking into the trend + asymetrical/psychological effects (spectral) on stock values/economy - triggered by political party assembly, elections or equivalent (depending on the chosen candidates - what they talk about/promise, economy gameplan, policies etc.), Yes...corporate good governance, delivery systems, book value, blah-blah-blah as well.

Other psychological factors may also relate to 'force majeur elements' that I've mentioned in one of my recent posts, such as war, environmental issues, natural disasters etc. Don't forget big events such as games & competitions (spurious correlation) such as World Cup, Olympic Games etc.

Other variables - currency movement (depreciate/appreciate?) vs inflation vs growth, inequilibrium in trade balances etc. Investors must also have knowledge on the industries/products/operations/core-business processes that they have interest in.

To be on safer side, Ariffin + John + Nik's modus operandi - you'll be a super knowledgeable investor..hehehehe.

Here an article I would like to share :

http://www.globalexchange.org/campaigns/rulemakers/TenWaysToDemocratize.html

10 Ways to Democratize the Global Economy

Citizens can and should play an active role in shaping the future of our global economy. Here are some of the ways in which we can work together to reform global trade rules, demand that corporations are accountable to people's needs, build strong and free labor and promote fair and environmentally sustainable alternatives.

1. No Globalization without Representation

Multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund create global policy with input mainly from multinational corporations and very little input from grassroots citizens groups. We need to ensure that all global citizens must be democratically represented in the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of all global social and economic policies of the WTO, the IMF, and the WB. The WTO must immediately halt all meetings and negotiations in order for a full, fair, and public assessment to be conducted of the impacts of the WTO's policies to date. The WTO must be replaced by a body that is fully democratic, transparent, and accountable to citizens of the entire world instead of to corporations. We must build support for trade policies that protect workers, human rights, and the environment.

2. Mandate Corporate Accountability

Corporations have so heavily influenced global trade negotiations that they now have rights and representation greater than individual citizens and even governments. Under the guise of 'free trade' they advocate weakening of labor and environmental laws -- a global economy of sweatshops and environmental devastation. Corporations must be subject to the people's will; they should have to prove their worth to society or be dismantled. Corporations must be accountable to public needs, be open to public scrutiny, provide living wage jobs, abide by all environmental and labor regulations, and be subject to all laws governing them. Shareholder activism is an excellent tool for challenging corporate behavior.

3. Restructure the Global Financial Architecture

Currency speculation and the derivatives market move over $1.5 trillion daily (compared to world trade of $6 trillion annually), earning short-term profits for wealthy investors at the expense of long-term development. Many countries are beginning to implement 'capital controls' in order to regulate the influence foreign capital, and grassroots groups are advocating the restructuring and regulation of the global financial architecture. Citizens can pass local city resolutions for the Tobin Tax - a tax of .1% to .25% on currency transactions which would provide a disincentive for speculation but not affect real capital investment, and create a huge fund for building schools & clinics throughout the world.

4. Cancel all Debt, End Structural Adjustment and Defend Economic Sovereignty

Debt is crushing most poor countries' ability to develop as they spend huge amounts of their resources servicing odious debt rather than serving the needs of their populations. Structural adjustment is the tool promoted by the IMF and World Bank to keep countries on schedule with debt payments, with programs promoting export-led development at the expense of social needs. There is an international movement demanding that all debt be cancelled in the year 2000 in order for countries to prioritize health care, education, and real development. Countries must have the autonomy to pursue their own economic plans, including prioritizing social needs over the needs of multinational corporations.

5. Prioritize Human Rights - Including Economic Rights - in Trade Agreements

The United Nations must be the strongest multilateral body - not the WTO. The US must ratify all international conventions on social and political rights. Trade rules must comply with higher laws on human rights as well as economic and labor rights included in the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights. We should promote alternative trade agreements that include fair trade, debt cancellation, micro-credit, and local control over development policies.

6. Promote Sustainable Development - Not Consumption - as the Key to Progress

Global trade and investment should not be ends in themselves, but rather the instruments for achieving equitable and sustainable development, including protection for workers and the environment. Global trade agreements should not undermine the ability of each nation, state or local community to meet its citizens' social, environmental, cultural or economic needs. International development should not be export-driven, but rather should prioritize food security, sustainability, and democratic participation.

7. Integrate Womens' Needs in All Economic Restructuring

Women make up half the world but hold less than 5% of positions of power in determining global economic policy, and own an estimated 1% of global property. Family survival around the world depends on the economic independence of women. Economic policies need to take into account women's important role in nutrition, education, and development. This includes access to family planning as well as education, credit, job training, policy decision-making, and other needs.

8. Build Free and Strong Labor Unions Internationally and Domestically

As trade becomes more 'free,' labor unions are still restricted from organizing in most countries. The International Labor Organization should have the same enforcement power as the WTO. The US should ratify ILO conventions and set an example in terms of enforcing workers' rights to organize and bargain collectively. As corporations increase their multinational strength, unions are working to build bridges across borders and organize globally. Activists can support their efforts and ensure that free labor is an essential component of any 'free trade' agreements.

9. Develop Community Control Over Capital; Promote Socially Responsible Investment

Local communities should not be beholden to the IMF, international capital, multinational corporations, or any other non-local body for policy. Communities should be able to develop investment and development programs that suit local needs including passing anti-sweatshop purchasing restrictions, promoting local credit unions and local barter currency, and implementing investment policies for their city, church, and union that reflect social responsibility criteria.

10. Promote Fair Trade Not Free Trade

While we work to reform 'free trade' institutions and keep corporate chain stores out of our neighborhoods, we should also promote our own vision of Fair Trade. We need to build networks of support and education for grassroots trade and trade in environmentally sustainable goods. We can promote labeling of goods such as Fair Trade Certified, organic, and sustainably harvested. We can purchase locally made goods and locally grown foods that support local economies and cooperative forms of production and trade.

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 19 February 2007 at 2:18pm


I was spending my whole day, watching economic/market oriented - VCDs/DVDs, reading some books and magazines, researching the internet to find good 'historical' articles for my reference. All these efforts have led me towards a bunch of interesting reminders about 'when things go wrong'. Among others :

a) 1929 - Stock market crash. - Briefly -

The stock market crash ushered in the Great Depression. Causes :

Abstract

Capital - tools to produce things of value out of raw materials e.g. Buildings and machines. A factory is a building with machines for making valued goods. Later capital was represented by stocks. A corporation owned capital. Ownership of the corporation in turn took the form of shares of stock. Each share of stock represented a proportionate share of the corporation. The stocks were bought and sold on stock exchanges i.e. NYSE located on Wall Street in Manhattan.

1920 - 1929 - a long boom took stock prices to peaks never before seen - stocks more than quadrupled in value. Many investors became convinced that stocks were a sure thing and borrowed heavily to invest more money in the market. 1929 - the bubble burst and stocks started down an even more precipitous cliff. In 1932 and 1933, they hit bottom, down about 80% from their highs in the late 1920s. This had sharp effects on the economy. Demand for goods declined because people felt poor because of their losses in the stock market. New investment could not be financed through the sale of stock, because no one would buy the new stock. Also, it has created chaos in the banking system as banks recovering loans made to investors whose holdings were now worth little or nothing at all. Worse, many banks had themselves invested depositors' money in the stockmarket. When word spread that banks' assets contained huge uncollectable loans and almost worthless stock certificates, depositors rushed to withdraw their savings. Unable to raise fresh funds from the Federal Reserve System, banks began failing by the hundreds in 1932 and 1933. Franklin D. Roosevelt became president in March 1933, the US banking system had largely ceased to function. Depositors had seen $140 billion disappeared when their banks failed. Businesses could not get credit for inventory. Checks could not be used for payments because no one knew which checks were worthless and which were sound. Roosevelt closed all the banks in the United States for three days - a "bank holiday." Some banks were then cautiously re-opened with strict limits on withdrawals. Eventually, confidence returned to the system and banks were able to perform their economic function again. To prevent similar disasters, the federal government set up the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which eliminated the rationale for bank "runs" - to get one's money before the bank "runs out." Backed by the FDIC, the bank could fail and go out of business, but then the government would reimburse depositors. Another crucial mechanism insulated commercial banks from stock market panics by banning banks from investing depositors' money in stocks.

b) Black Monday 1987

Black Monday is the name given to Monday, October, 19, 1987., when the DJIA fell dramatically, and on which similar enormous drops occurred across the world. By the end of October, stock markets in Hong Kong had fallen 45.8%, Australia 41.8%, the UK 26.4%, the US 22.68%, and Canada 22.5%. (The terms Black Monday and Black Tuesday are also applied to October 28 and 29, 1929, which occurred after Black Thursday on October 24, which started the Stock Market Crash of 1929)

A certain degree of mystery is associated with the 1987 crash. Many have noted that no major news or events occurred prior to the Monday of the crash, the decline seeming to have come from nowhere. Important assumptions concerning human rationality, the efficient market hypothesis, and economic equilibrium were brought into question by the event. Debate as to the cause of the crash still continues many years after the event, with no firm conclusions reached.

In the wake of the crash, markets around the world were put on restricted trading primarily because sorting out the orders that had come in was beyond the computer technology of the time. This also gave the Feds and other central banks time to pump liquidity into the system to prevent a further downdraft. While pessimism reigned, the market bottomed on October 20, leading some to label Black Monday a "selling climax", where the excess value was squeezed out of the system.

Causes

In 1986, US economy began shifting from a rapidly growing recovery to a slower growing expansion, which resulted in a "soft landing" as the economy slowed and inflation dropped. As 1987 wore on, it seemed that recessionary fears were not warranted and that boom times would continue. The stock market advanced significantly, peaking in August 1987. There were a series of volatile days that caused widespread nervousness leading up to the crash, with the market ultimately sliding downward. In late August some observers warned that technical analysis indicated the market was now in a cyclical "bear" mode. However, this view was not widely subscribed to even as the market traded wildly. Potential causes for the decline include program trading, overvaluation illiquidity & market psychology.These theories might explain why the crash occurred on October 19 and not some other day, why it fell so far and fast, and why it was international in nature and not unique to American markets.

The most popular explanation for the 1987 crash was selling by program traders. Program trading is the use of computers to engage in arbitrage & portfolio insurance strategies. Through the 1970s and early 1980s, computers were becoming more important on Wall Street. They allowed instantaneous execution of orders to buy or sell large batches of stocks & futures. After the crash, many blamed program trading strategies for blindly selling stocks as markets fell, exacerbating the decline. Some economists theorized the speculative boom leading up to October was caused by program trading, while others argued that the crash was a return to normalcy. Either way, program trading ended up taking the majority of the blame in the public eye for the 1987 stock market crash. Economist Richard Roll believes that the international nature of the stock market decline contradicts the argument that program trading was to blame. Program trading strategies were used primarily in the United States, Roll writes. If program trading caused the decline, why would markets where program trading was not prevalent, such as Australia and Hong Kong, have declined as well? Although these markets might have been reacting to excessive program trading in the United States, Roll points to observations that would indicate otherwise. The crash began on October 19 in Hong Kong, spread west to Europe, and hit the United States only after Hong Kong and other markets had already declined by a significant margin.

Another common theory states that the crash was a result of a dispute in monetary policy between the G-7 industrialized nations, in which the United States, wanting to prop up the dollar and restrict inflation, tightened policy faster than the Europeans. The crash, in this view, was caused when the dollar-backed Hong Kong stock exchange collapsed, and this caused a crisis in confidence. Jude Wanniski stated that the crash happened because of the breakup of the Louvre Accord, a monetary pact between the US, Japan, and West Germany to keep currencies stable. Just prior to the crash, Alan Greespan had said that the dollar would be devalued.

Another theory is that the Great Storm of 1987, which happened on the Friday before the crash, helped contribute to it. In 1987 there was no Internet trading, and brokers had to physically get to work in the City of London in order to do their deals. On Friday, October 16, many routes into London were closed and consequently many traders were unable to reach their offices in order to close their positions at the end of the week. This made many people nervous on both sides of the Atlantic and there were certainly some traders who believed at the time that this acted as the trigger for the panic selling which took place on Black Monday. Panic selling in London and New York, the biggest stock markets in the world, then affected other markets around the world, creating a global stock market crash.

Yet another theory for the 1987 crash was the random placement of sell orders in a sufficiently small time interval as to cause a sudden decline in the indices, leading to a cascade effect of further sell orders. In the days preceding the actual Black Monday crash the markets began to sell off, beginning with a sudden 5% selloff on Wednesday, three days before the actual crash. Prior to that Wednesday, the trend for the Nasdaq/DJIA was stable, and undergoing what could be interpreted as a normal correction. If one were to zoom in on Wednesday one would notice normal trading activity and then an abrupt 1% intra-day drop. This drop could have been triggered by randomly placed sell orders that happened to all trigger at once. Although the odds of this happening are very slim, there is a probability that sufficient random sell orders placed by institutions, insiders, and the like will trigger a cascade effect should enough sell orders be placed in a small enough time interval.

The initial small 1% selloff caused by the 'clumped' random sell orders may have prompted trend traders to liquidate their positions, resulting in a larger decline that simply fed on itself like a domino effect, ultimately leading to the 26% crash of Black Monday.

-------------------------

Others were 1998 Currency Devaluation, Post 9/11 Market Effects etc.

These 'dark' events serve as great reminders for us to be extra careful of rosy events.

The question now : "What lessons have we learned?"

Keunggulan Pedagogi - Menangani Krisis dan Konflik

(Panduan Psikologi Menangani Masalah Pelajar dan Pendidik)

Usahasama: Nik Zafri dan Tetty Henney Zulkifli

© 2000 - Kajian ini telah diambil daripada banyak sumber dan telah diolah kembali dengan mengambilkira faktor-faktor semasa termasuk pengalaman sidang pengarang. Sebarang penyalinan/aplikasi kembali harta intelek ini dalam apa juga bentuk tanpa kebenaran daripada sidang pengarang adalah salah disisi undang-undang.

1.0 MENANGANI KRISIS

Apabila perancangan dan teknik mempengaruhi tingkahlaku pendidik gagal untuk menangani kenakalan pelajar, pendidik perlu mewujudkan pelan pengurusan krisis yang terdiri daripada:-

• Takrif khusus "krisis"
• Strategi pencegahan
• Prosedur yang melibatkan kerjasama berpasukan
• Corak melaporkan krisis atau sesuatu insiden
• Log atau folder pelajar
• Sistem kakitangan sokongan

Suatu krisis biasanya terdiri daripada 5 fasa yang khusus dan mudah dikenali. Mengenalpasti tanda-tanda krisis akan membantu pendidik atau lain-lain kakitangan untuk mengambil tindakan dan membuat keputusan.

1. Fasa Trigger

Sesuatu perlakuan yang muncul atau menyebabkan tekanan fisikal dan mental. Ini menyebabkan pelajar tidak memberikan maklumbalas, berdiam diri, berwajah masam dan tidak menjawab walaupun ditanya guru beberapa kali. Cara menanganinya ialah pendidik perlu memberikan sokongan dengan bercakap dengan pelajar secara lemah lembut. Cuba tarik perhatian pelajar dengan jenaka ringkas, atau mungkin mengajak pelajar melihat pemandangan sekeliling.

2. Fasa Semarak

Pelajar menunjukkan tanda-tanda tekanan (distress) Tandanya dapat dilihat apabila otot-otot dilihat menegang, ketinggian suara atau bercakap dengan laju, tidak boleh duduk diam diatas kerusi, pandangan tidak tetap kadangkala kekiri dan kekanan, tapak tangan menggosok muka atau lain-lain gesture. Ini disebabkan oleh darah yang mengalir dengan pantas daripada otak ke bahagian otot yang menyebabkan berlakunya tekanan. Pendidik perlu memberikan ruang untuk pelajar merehatkan diri sejenak atau mungkin cuba mengajak pelajar-pelajar bangun dan bersenam/riadah ringkas.

3. Fasa Meletup (Blow-Up)

Pelajar gagal mengawal kata-kata dan tindakan fisikal. Anjakan ke bawah (downshifting) akan berlaku dan adrenalin mula mengepam (dan akan berlaku selama 30 minit), dan pelajar menjadi agresif secara tiba-tiba serta gagal memproses atau sintesis maklumat. Keupayaan untuk memproses bahasa secara lisan atau tulisan termasuk mengenali corak juga akan mengalami kegagalan. Ketika ini, pelajar berpotensi bertindak tidak rasional, merbahaya dan destruktif. Pendidik perlu memastikan keselamatan dirinya, pelajar berkenaan dan pelajar-pelajar lain semasa krisis. Cuba memujuk dengan suara yang lemah lembut, jangan ada sebarang provokasi, stimuli, dan sasaran samada daripada pendidik atau pelajar-pelajar lain. Asingkan pelajar lain seberapa segera dan cuba berundur untuk meminta bantuan kakitangan lain jika gagal.

4. Fasa Stabil dan Recovery

Walaupun pelajar mula tenang tetapi tekanan masih ada dalam dirinya dan jika beliau terasa "diancam" dengan provokasi; walaupun secara lemah-lembut; akan menyebabkan ia "meletup" kembali. Nafasnya juga pendek dan warna wajahnya akan berubah menjadi tenang dan otot akan menurun. Pendidik perlu bertenang dan cuba bantu menenangkan pelajar. Jangan mengugut dengan denda atau hukuman dan lain-lain tekanan. Tunjukkan keprihatinan terhadap pelajar berkenaan.

5. Selepas Krisis/Depresi

Dalam fasa terakhir, apabila kimia badan menurun ketahap normal, pelajar mungkin penat, mengantuk atau tidak berapa berminat melibatkan diri dalam aktiviti selanjutnya. Ada juga pelajar yang seperti "terlupa" dengan apa yang telah berlaku dan cuba untuk mengelakkan sebarang perbincangan atau memberi pandangan berbentuk sinis mengenai insiden berkenaan. Rasa malu yang berlebihan, merasa dipandang rendah oleh rakan-rakan dan sebagainya akan menyebabkan tindakan pelajar kembali agresif. Jika perlu, pelajar berkenaan harus diberikan cuti.

Cuba berbincang kembali dengan pelajar bermasalah secara bersendirian dan pelajar-pelajar lain secara berasingan. Bincangkan apa yang berlaku dan apakah reaksi jika ianya berlaku lagi. Insiden berkenaan perlu direkodkan untuk mencari tindakan pembetulan dan pencegahan secara proaktif dan reaktif.

2.0 MENANGANI KONFLIK

Pelajar bergantung kepada pendidiknya sebagai "orang dewasa" sebagai role-model atau contoh. Pendidik perlu mengawal suara, body language dan kata-kata yang dikeluarkan. Emosi pendidik dibayangkan menerusi suara dan gerak badan.

Suara Rendah, Terkawal dan Terhormat

pitch: sentiasa bertukar tetapi tidak terlalu tinggi dan tidak terlalu rendah/perlahan. Terlalu tinggi boleh menyebabkan elemen hilang kawalan dan jika terlalu rendah/perlahan - mungkin menyebabkan keletihan atau mengantuk.

resonan: dari dada ke kepala

irama: gabungan pitch dan resonan serta "kemas"

suara: bernafas seperti biasa, steady dan mudah didengari.

kelajuan: normal, jika terlalu laju akan menyebabkan kebosanan.

Gerak Badan secara Minima dan Dimana Perlu

gerakan: perlahan dan tidak panik atau membayangkan jiwa bermasalah.

Kedudukan/jarak dengan pelajar: lebih kurang 3 kaki, tidak terlalu dekat "muka dan muka", tidak terlalu "mengerumuni" dan sebagainya.

Tahap-mata: sentiasa memandang terus kepada mata pelajar-pelajar secara rawak.

Memek muka: ceria dan tersenyum - bukan ketawa terbahak-bahak.

Postur yang rileks: tangan tidak digenggam, kaki/sendi yang rileks dan lain-lain. Kurangkan menunjuk dengan jari telunjuk. Cuba gunakan nama pelajar dan angguk serta senyum sedikit selepas pelajar bangun untuk menjawab.

Penggunaan Perkataan

• Gunakan nama pelajar
• Berinteraksi kurang dari seminit semasa sesi tanya jawab.
• Terikat kepada apa yang sedang dipelajari dan tidak terlalu terbawa-bawa kepada apa yang tidak berkaitan dengan pelajaran atau contoh yang sepatutnya berkaitan dengan topik dibawa-bawa kepada sub-topik yang tidak penting kepada topik yang sedang dipelajari.
• Elakkan sindiran terlalu sinis atau terbuka terhadap pelajar bermasalah.

Membuat Permintaan/Memberikan Arahan

1. Membuat permintaan/arahan secara bersopan - jangan menggunakan soalan - hanya satu permintaan/arahan pada setiap masa - memberikan panduan untuk pelajar membuat dan bukannya yang tidak boleh dibuat - gunakan perkataan "tolong" atau "please" pada arahan permintaan pertama.
2. Berikan 5-10 saat pelajar untuk memberikan maklumbalas - jangan mendesak
3. Jika jawapannya positif, jelaskan rasional disebalik permintaaan/arahan berkenaan secara ringkas supaya pelajar memahami dan ikhlas melakukannya kerana ingin membantu gurunya dan bukannya kerana dipaksa.
4. Ucapkan terima kasih dan tunjukkan penghargaan pendidik dengan senyuman atau tidak keterlaluan jika membelanja pelajar di kantin/kafeteria.

Perhatian : Kajian berikut tidak begitu terikat kepada disiplin pedagogi semata-mata. Ianya merupakan kajian lebih liberal mengikut kacamata perunding bebas dan faktor-faktor empirikal juga diambilkira. Haipotesis pedagogi tidak begitu ditekankan secara khusus walaupun sedikit unsur-unsur berkenaan masih dijadikan panduan secara generik oleh pengarang dalam memantapkan isi kajiannya. Aplikasi mana-mana kandungan dibawah masih memerlukan perbincangan secara kolektif dikalangan semua pihak yang berkepentingan termasuk warga akademik secara keseluruhan. Perunding bersedia untuk membuat kursus, bengkel dan taklimat jika diperlukan. Bagi pelajar IPT bidang pendidikan, anda dikehendaki menghubungi perunding/pengarang/pengelola laman web untuk keterangan selanjutnya.

INOVASI DALAM PEDAGOGI, KURIKULUM DAN PENDIDIKAN MALAYSIA

Kajian Oleh : PN. TETTY HENNEY BTE ZULKIFLI dijalankan dengan usahasama dengan NIK ZAFRI (Pengeditan Semula : November, 2006)

© 1999-2000-2006 Tetty Henney Zulkifli/Nik Zafri. Sebarang penyalinan kembali ke atas mana-mana isi kandungan harta intelek berikut secara langsung atau tidak langsung perlu mendapat keizinan bertulis dari pengarang atau pengelola Nik Zafri Online. Pengarang tidak boleh disabitkan atas apa-apa tindakan perundangan dan tidak akan bertanggungjawab sekiranya aplikasi tanpa kebenaran menyebabkan kegagalan dalam perjalanan tradisi disiplin keilmuan pedagogi, pendidikan dan kurikulum.

Keunggulan di dalam bilik darjah tidak mungkin dapat dilaksanakan menerusi kurikulum yang standard untuk semua pelajar. Walaupun ini merupakan hakikatnya, masih banyak kita lihat sekolah-sekolah di Malaysia yang tidak memahami perkara ini. Inilah diantara sebab kenapa YB Tan Sri Musa Muhammad, mantan Menteri Pendidikan telah (secara tidak langsung) telah mencadangkan gabungan falsafah konservatif dan liberal dalam pedagogi. Ini dapat dilihat dengan cadangan beliau untuk memberikan sedikit kelonggaran bagi sekolah untuk menguruskan sendiri premis mereka dan menggalakkan sekolah memperkenalkan unsur-unsur ketrampilan/kemahiran dalam akademik. Selain itu konsep-konsep terkini seperti Sekolah Wawasan, Bestari dan Premier juga perlu mendapat sokongan tenaga pendidik bagi menjayakannya. Kesemuanya adalah bertujuan untuk melahirkan suasana pendidikan yang lebih demokratik dan bukannya untuk merosakkan keharmonian kaum seperti yang didakwa oleh sesetengah pihak.

Di alaf baru ini, perhatian serius perlu diberikan terhadap isu-isu seperti budaya, etnik dan bangsa yang belajar dengan cara yang lebih seragam. Soalan-soalan berikut perlu ditanyakan terlebih dahulu :

1. Bagaimanakah kita dapat mengetahui bahawa keseluruhan pelajar tidak kira dari mana sekalipun mampu belajar sejajar dengan panduan-panduan yang telah diberikan?
2. Bagaimanakah caranya kita dapat menyeragamkan pengetahuan dan kemahiran/ketrampilan untuk semua orang?

Jika kita perhatikan suasana semasa sekarang, sudah tentu jawapan-jawapan yang bakal diberikan adalah 'tidak tahu! Jadi apakah sebenarnya yang dipanggil keunggulan hasil inovasi dalam pedagogi? Bagaimanakah caranya kurikulum kini dapat disesuaikan dengan sekolah-sekolah dalam konteks budaya, etnik dan bangsa?

Semua pentadbiran sekolah perlu diberikan peluang untuk menguruskan perkara ini secara bebas. Pengurusan yang boleh dilakukan ialah membangun dan menguji standard kandungan bagi menakrifkan pengetahuan dan kemahiran untuk sekolah masing-masing. Menerusi ujian/trial-run sahaja, aras dapat dilakukan keatas keberkesanan pelaksanaan. Banyak agensi/perunding/organisasi boleh terlibat sama dalam membantu projek ini seperti Lembaga Akreditasi Negara, Majlis Latihan Vokasional Kebangsaan, organisasi korporat, orang awam dll. Kesimpulan dari pendapat umum seperti ini kadangkala amat bernas dan boleh menjadi input-input yang positif untuk aras standarddan kurikulum akademik.

Semua pengurusan dan standard perlu mendemonstrasikan skop kerja bagi mengenalpasti pengetahuan yang benar-benar diperlukan oleh pelajar. Warga pendidik secara keseluruhan juga perlu komited untuk sama-sama menentukan pelajar mencapai standard keunggulan.

Apa yang perlu kita fikirkan sekarang ialah tradisi menilai pelajar yang berkaitan secara langsung dengan budaya normatif dengan membandingkan pelajar menerusi pengagihan kelok pencapaian dengan kelok keupayaan/kebolehan yang diperolehi menerusi Ujian IQ. Apakah ianya satu sistem yang baik? Atau hanya melahirkan lebih banyak diskriminasi.

Umum berpendapat bahawa kecermelangan pendidikan dapat dijayakan menerusi ukuran tahap prestasi pelajar akan menentukan sasaran yang mencabar. Ada yang terlupa bahawa kurikulum yang seragam tidak mampu menghasilkan kecemerlangan untuk semua.

Sebarang usaha ke arah mengelakkan pendekatan yang terlalu terikat kepada sort-and-select bagi mendapatkan hasil berkualiti perlu diberikan pujian. Ini sepatutnya menjadi sasaran bagi meminimakan sistem pengesan pada 'peringkat bawah kelok berbentuk bola' yang sering 'menghantui' pembentukan kurikulum. Walaubagaimanapun, asas utama inovasi pedagogi yang menekankan integrasi sumber dan kecukupan masa serta meningkatkan kemahiran dan pengetahuan perlu dikekalkan. Tidak dapat dinafikan, kadangkala kita perlu merenung dan menyemak kembali isi kandungan Penyata Razak dan sesuaikan/tingkatkan dengan zaman teknologi alaf baru.

Segala masalah berhubung inovasi pedagogi tidak akan dapat diminimakan menerusi kurikulum/standard kandungan yang berdasarkan semata-mata kepada pembelajaran konsep-konsep yang penting, kemahiran berfikir dan aplikasi pembelajaran situasi 'sebenar'. Masalah juga akan bertambah apabila ramai pihak berbalahan tentang format kemahiran yang perlu diperkenalkan kepada pelajar mengikut kehendak pasaran pekerjaan alaf baru.

Apabila kurikulum atau standard kandungan yang sama digunakan, sistem pendidikan tidak akan mencapai kejayaan sasaran untuk menjadikannya lebih demokratik dengan mengenepikan perbezaan individu pelajar dari segi latarbelakang, pengalaman dan minat. Jika ini dapat dipinda, tentunya, keunggulan daripada setiap pelajar akan dapat dimaksimakan.

Langkah susulan yang perlu dilakukan selepas ini ialah semakan kembali ke atas tiga (3) falsafah pendekatan terhadap standard/kurikulum pedagogi iaitu :- konservatif, liberal dan kiritikal. Ketiga-tiga pendekatan ini dapat menjelaskan isu berhubung takrif konsep standard dan keunggulan dalam konteks pendidikan yang lebih demokratik. Pendekatan terhadap standard bagi membangunkan ketiga-tiga falsafah ini perlu dikaji dari segi kebaikan dan keburukannya. Gabungan yang tepat ke atas ketiga-tiga elemen ini akan memudahkan satu panduan diwujudkan bertujuan untuk membangunkan standard yang lebih demokratik dan unggul sehingga ke bilik darjah.

Sekitar Konsep Konservatif, Perkembangannya dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap Pedagogi Malaysia

Pendekatan konservatif di Malaysia telah banyak mengalami perubahan semenjak zaman pasca-kolonialisma. Kini ianya lebih banyak mendiskusikan kebebasan individu dan awam. Impak yang ditinggalkan ada kalanya positif dan ada kalanya negatif - bergantung kepada suasana semasa. Didapati mekanisma kawalannya juga agak minima tetapi lebih mementingkan pelaksanaan berperingkat dan melihat hasilnya. Isu kualiti dan standard sekolah termasuk kuasa guru dan guru besar/pengetua juga ditekankan. Kebelakangan ini, konsep ini dikatakan cenderung kepada pengurusan dari bawah ke atas dan komited kepada kebebasan dalam merekabentuk program yang sesuai dengan kehendak mengikut zon/kawasan masing-masing. Ini tanpa disedari adalah pengaruh daripada falsafah liberal. Falsafah konservatif baru ini juga didapati tidak menyetujui kuasa secara mutlak seseorang ketua membuat keputusan disamping tidak menggemari penubuhan jawatankuasa yang tidak bersikap terbuka terhadap pendapat.

Falsafah konservatif berpendapat bahawa sokongan atau tentangan ibubapa terhadap sekolah akan bergantung kepada cara pengurusan sekolah melayan mereka. Sebarang campurtangan 'luar' akan menjejaskan perjalanan pengurusan sekolah. Standard yang diwujudkan sentiasa menakrifkan satu set "kemahiran asas" contohnya 3M. Namun, ramai pengkritik berpendapat bahawa konsep konservatif tidak mahu berubah mengikut keadaan dan terlalu banyak unsur politik didalamnya. Saya berpendapat, konsep ini terlalu berhati-hati dalam membuat perubahan bukannya tidak mahu berubah langsung.

Konsep inilah juga yang menuntut supaya pelajar didedahkan daripada usia yang masih muda mengenal sejarah Malaysia dalam kesemua mata- mata pelajaran sebagai asas persediaan mereka untuk zaman alaf baru yang lebih mencabar hasil cabaran globalisasi. Unsur-unsur pembelajaran sastera dan seni juga perlu dikekalkan. Elemen-elemen seperti ini dapat mengekalkan nilai budaya dan intelektual dalam pendidikan. Pendedahan ini didapati telah dipraktikkan oleh hampir kesemua sekolah di Malaysia.

Namun, penekanan terhadap bahasa penghantar kedua iaitu Bahasa Inggeris didapati agak berkurangan. Mungkin pengaruh chauvinistik atau fanatik yang melulu telah menjadi penyebabnya. Bahasa Inggeris termasuk bahasa asing yang lain perlu ditekankan demi kemahiran menafsirkan ilmu yang disadur daripada negara asing yang semakin meningkat terutamanya menerusi Internet. Untuk ini, Kementerian Pendidikan telah banyak memainkan peranan mereka (hampir 30 tahun) namun kempen Bahasa Inggeris masih lagi seolah-olah dipandang sepi atau 'angin-anginan'. Walaupun terdapat usaha telah dilakukan namun didapati semakin ramai anak-anak kampung, kawasan pendalaman dan pinggir bandar didapati masih belum begitu fasih dalam berbahasa Inggeris. Kita bimbang, jika fenomena ini berlanjutan, maka kemungkinan kerajaan terpaksa meminimakan peruntukan terhadap kempen berbahasa Inggeris.

Dari sudut positif yang lain, kita dapati juga konsep konservatif berjaya melahirkan ramai pelajar-pelajar terbaik dari sekolah luar bandar. Kadangkala kekurangan infrastruktur dan bantuan material serta sokongan moral dari luar boleh mencetuskan usaha bersungguh-sungguh untuk membaiki taraf hidup di kampung yang dilihat masih memerlukan pembangunan. Kita telah melihat bagaimana pelajar-pelajar yang agak patriotik dengan kawasan perkampungan sering 'pulang ke lubuk' apabila berjaya mendapatkan ilmu dan pengalaman dari bandar. Tujuan mereka tidak lain dan tidak bukan ialah untuk membangunkan kampung mereka dengan ilmu yang diperolehi. Boleh dikatakan kebanyakannya berjaya dalam usaha mereka dan mengambilalih tugas 'wakil-wakil rakyat', penghulu dan penggawa dengan meletakkan proses urbanisasi dengan cara yang tersendiri. Dalam konteks ini, jelas kepada kita bahawa bantuan yang terlalu banyak terutamanya daripada Kementerian Pendidikan kadangkala mampu menjadikan sesebuah sekolah sebagai 'anak manja yang disuap'.

Cara Meningkatkan Falsafah Konservatif dengan menggunakan kaedah Liberal

Secara keseluruhannya konsep konservatif masih memerlukan pembaharuan tanpa mengenepikan nilai-nilai asas yang murni terdapat di dalamnya. Suka atau tidak, perubahan zaman wajib diambilkira kerana kebanyakan sumber pedagogi falsafah konservatif didapati tidak lagi dapat menampung kehendak peredaran masa dan peningkatan teknologi pendidikan yang semakin pantas. Sebarang unsur baru dari segi liberal perlu dimasukkan secara berhati-hati supaya pedagogi tidak berakhir dengan terlalu banyak dasar, misi, sasaran, falsafah, prosedur, fail, kertas, data, carta aliran dll yang tidak mampu dilaksanakan dan redundant. Teknologi dan sistem juga perlu diperkenalkan secara berperingkat-peringkat supaya konsep konservatif dapat menjalani ujian masa bagi mengadaptasikan kepada sistem dan teknologi yang muttakhir. Isu-isu semasa seperti masalah disiplin yang semakin merosot, peningkatan jenayah pelbagai, kerosakan akhlak dan jurang generasi pendidik muda dan berumur juga perlu diambilkira.

Sebarang unsur berbentuk terlalu cenderung kepada 'perniagaan dan memenuhi poket sendiri' dari semua pihak samada dalaman atau luaran mestilah diminimakan. Unsur negatif ini didapati telah merosakkan kemurnian hasrat kerajaan bagi menjadikan pedagogi sebagai asas melahirkan kedua-dua pendidik dan pelajar yang cemerlang.

Pendedahan kepada kepelbagaian kemahiran dan kepintaran ke atas sistem 'sort and select' juga perlu bagi melahirkan ilmu pedagogi yang komited terhadap sistem pendidikan cemerlang dan demokratik. Pengurusan sendiri pentadbiran sesebuah sekolah masih memerlukan banyak pendedahan kepada unsur-unsur luaran yang positif. Jika pengurusan tidak dikawal, adalah dikhuatiri, sistem konservatif ini akan menyebabkan bias, minat parochial dan ketidakseragaman dalam apa-apa program yang dirancangkan. Pengurusan sendiri sekolah tanpa bimbingan berpotensi menjadikan sesebuah sekolah tidak langsung menerima pendapat dari luar kerana terlalu bergantung kepada falsafah sendiri dan membuat reformasi yang tidak selaras dengan hasrat negara.

Pengurusan disentralisasi ala falsafah konservatif ; walaupun ada kebaikannya; masih perlu benar-benar mengikut kehendak falsafah-falsafah liberal seperti TQM dan bukannya hanya tertulis kepada dasar namun ianya tidak diamalkan. Dari kajian sendiri, saya dapati kedua-dua stail pengurusan liberal ini iaitu disentralisasi dan berpusat (bawah ke atas dan atas ke bawah) masing-masing mempunyai kelebihan dan keburukan tersendiri. Ianya juga memerlukan pergabungan teliti. Selain itu tindakan proaktif dan reaktif dalam konteks pencegahan dan pembetulan adalah perlu justeru kita tidak mungkin dapat menjangka sesuatu kes yang bakal berlaku terutamanya jika kali pertama kita menghadapi sesuatu masalah yang tidak pernah dialami sebelumnya oleh mana-mana sekolah di Malaysia.

Pengaruh falsafah liberal yang menakrifkan kemahiran asas sebagai apa yang pelajar perlu tahu dan mampu membuatnya perlu dikenalpasti dan dianalisa untuk mendapatkan hasil kritikalnya. Kemudian jadikan ia sebagai salah satu asas formula bagi mendefinisikan tingkahlaku pembelajaran seseorang pelajar dan penilaian menerusi aplikasi berasaskan prestasi. Falsafah liberal juga agak terbuka kepada pendapat luar terutamanya mereka yang pakar dalam bidang masing-masing.

Standard yang baru mestilah berorientasikan penyelesaian masalah, komunikasi dan pendekatan bersepadu terutamanya ke atas subjek-subjek seperti sains dan matematik. Subjek-subjek teknikal ini mestilah berbentuk pemahaman konsep dan bukannya belajar untuk lulus peperiksaan. Sejarah Malaysia yang banyak memaparkan perkara-perkara berhubung budaya, etnik, perkauman dan sebagainya perlu disalurkan ke arah memperbetulkan ketidakseimbangan yang pernah dipudarkan faktanya oleh penjajah. Falsafah pendidikan harus mengambilkira amalan pengetahuan, disiplin ilmu yang baik, kualiti pendidikan, peningkatan ilmu dan tidak mengulangi kegagalan dasar, praktik dan strategi yang pernah diwujudkan.

Selain itu, konsep-konsep baru seperti TQM, ISO 9000 dan lain-lain yang setaraf perlu menjadi elemen yang bersifat 'complementary' sahaja dan bukannya mengubah 100% falsafah dan pengurusan yang sedia ada. Ini kerana untuk benar-benar menyesuaikan kehendak-kehendak standard dengan suasana akademik adalah sesuatu yang Easier Said than Done. Walaubagaimanapun, complementary yang dimaksudkan antara lain ialah ianya banyak menekankan prinsip yang saling perlu-memerlukan dan haipotesis yang menghala kepada kemahiran pelajar, empirikal, holistik, keunggulan/keaslian, expresif, reflektif, sosial, kerjasama dalam satu pasukan, kognitif, pembangunan dan cabaran. Metodoloji-metodoji ini; jika betul aplikasinya; mampu menjadi pemangkin kepada konsep pembelajaran dan agak berlainan dengan falsafah konservatif yang berpendapat bahawa pengetahuan diasaskan sendiri oleh pelajar, pergaulan mereka, pengalaman mereka dan daya kognitif yang terhasil dari ilmu yang baru.

Perlu diingatkan, apabila bercakap mengenai daya kognitif(pengetahuan dan analitikal), psikomotor (ketrampilan), afektif (pembangunan siasah diri) dan pencapaian tahap pemikiran di alaf baru, ianya tidak lagi terikat kepada unsur tradisi atau haipotesis dalam pedagogi tetapi perlu diambilkira keadaan muttakhir persekitaran termasuk perkembangan teknologi terkini dan lain-lain pihak berkepentingan yang mempunyai kepakaran dalam bidang ini. (lihat artikel Psikologi 2000 karya Tetty Henney dalam ruangan PendidikNet Malaysia yang juga termuat dalam ruangan kumpulan artikel ini.)

Model yang baru ini perlu mempunyai komponen sosial yang menekankan interaksi yang kuat bagi membina jaringan pengetahuan yang baik kepada pelajar. Dari segi kemahiran (mengikut falsafah liberal) pula, ianya perlu dijalankan secara berperingkat-peringkat mengikut tahap pelajar itu sendiri dan tidak berbentuk paksaan memahami dan memperbuat sesuatu diluar kebolehannya.

Kemahiran atau ketrampilan ini juga perlu memasukkan unsur-unsur kerjasama, pemikiran analitikal dan kritikal serta penyelesaian terhadap masalah dan komunikasi yang berkesan. Walaupun unsur kepintaran buatan seperti robotik, automasi dan komputer didapati telah mula mengambilalih tugas manusia, namun masih terlalu banyak proses yang tidak dapat 100% diaturcara. Malah teknik kuantitatif dan statistik moden sekalipun hanya menjadi pemangkin kepada membuat keputusan dan bukan menguasai proses pembuatan keputusan. Proses membuat keputusan masih memerlukan kepintaran dan penilaian kemanusiaan yang formal.

Unsur ketrampilan yang mungkin boleh diperkenalkan di peringkat awal ini; sebagai contoh; ialah kemahiran komputer secara asas seperti aplikasi (umpamanya pemerosesan perkataan, helaian hamparan, grafik diatas meja, persembahan grafik/beranimasi/multimedia, pangkalan data dan rekabentuk laman web)

Sistem pekerjaan yang terlalu mementingkan kelayakan akademik (hasil sort and select) kini mendapat saingan sengit oleh sistem yang berdasarkan ketrampilan dan pengalaman justeru ianya dikatakan lebih 'result-oriented'. Ternyata fakta ini benar apabila pasaran pekerjaan Malaysia terpaksa mengambil masa dalam pemilihan calon yang rata-rata berdasarkan akademik haipotesis dan bukannya ketrampilan yang disesuaikan dengan kehendak majikan dan skop industri. Kemahiran teknikal seperti kejuruteraan awam juga telah membuat banyak pindaan ke atas formula berasaskan algebra, kalkulus, sinus, kosinus, tangen, parameter dsb. dalam mendapatkan pengukuran struktur yang mempunyai 'ralatizin yang masih dalam margin kesalahan yang minima' kerana kadangkala formula matematik formal tidak mampu mengeluarkan keputusan yang tepat dalam konteks suasana yang sebenar. Selain pengiraan, faktor geologi dan fizik juga diambilkira.

Bagi mencapai tahap ketrampilan yang baik tentunya kurikulum dan tenaga pengajarnya juga perlu baik. Contohnya untuk memasukkan 'ralatizin' dalam formula matematik dan sains memerlukan anjakan paradigma tenaga-tenaga pengajar itu sendiri. Ini tidak akan dapat dijayakan jika tenaga pengajar belum bersedia menerima perubahan ini. Bengkel demi bengkel ketrampilan perlu lebih banyak diadakan dan bukannya semata-mata untuk memberikan tenaga pengajar peluang untuk bercuti atau berakhir dengan konflik perdebatan tanpa penyelesaian.

Tenaga pendidik perlu diberikan kebebasan bersuara dan mencadangkan sesuatu yang baik. Mereka juga perlu diberikan latihan yang kadangkala diluar daripada tradisi keilmuan pedagogi. Sudah tiba masanya, tenaga pendidik tidak terlalu terikat kepada peraturan yang terlalu ketat sehingga tidak memberikan ruang untuk berkembang. Tenaga pendidik sendiri juga harus bersedia dari segi fisikal dan mental secara relahati tanpa paksaan serta tekanan untuk menerima perubahan ini demi kebaikan semua. Jika ini tidak berlaku, maka masalah depresi dikalangan guru akan semakin meningkat dan kos rehabilitasi psikologi juga akan meningkat. Boleh dikatakan kos ini salah-satu unsur 'intangible' yang jika meningkat melebihi marginal jangkaan, maka kualiti dan keunggulan tidak akan tercapai sepenuhnya.

Dalam konteks kerajaan sendiri, audit/penilaian kualiti pihak ketiga yang betul caranya ke atas sekolah-sekolah yang diurus dan ditadbir sendiri akan mengurangkan jurang ketidakadilan yang sering diperkatakan dalam penilaian prestasi dan kenaikan gaji. Ini bukanlah bermakna sistem penilaian prestasi dan kenaikan gaji mengikut kelok perlu dihapuskan, cuma ianya perlu bersifat lebih telus dan bukannya bersifat individualistik. Sistem audit ini perlu foolproof dan failsafe. Dalam konsep audit sebarang kelok memerlukan justifikasi dan apabila diminta maka bukti kukuh perlu dikemukakan - biasanya berbentuk data yang telah dianalisa yang dipakejkan bersama dengan satu pelan tindakan yang baik dan munasabah.

Pengauditan proses, prestasi, kewangan, latihan, sumber dsb. perlu diadakan menerusi sistem kawalan kualiti yang lebih terbuka dan mengambilkira bukti seperti rekod, data, dokumen, maklumbalas, pengukuran sumbangan, kepatuhan disiplin dan sebagainya.

Selain itu, sekolah yang masih serba kekurangan, juga memerlukan prasarana yang kena pada masa dan tempatnya. Ini termasuklah saiz sekolah dan kelas yang lebih lapang, bahan yang mencukupi, peningkatan kualiti makmal sains dan komputer, pendidikan luaran dan dalaman yang seimbang dan peluang serta strategi, masa dan adanya tenaga pengajar yang mencukupi bagi membantu pelajar yang masih serba kekurangan. Tanpa perubahan seumpama ini, tentunya banyak pelajar-pelajar termasuk tenaga pengajar tidak dapat mencapai tahap kecermelangan menerusi sistem baru ini.

Atas sebab-sebab inilah, apa sahaja konsep baharu dalam pedagogi yang hendak diperkenalkan perlu mengambilkira kehendak semua kaum, budaya, status dan latarbelakang masing-masing.

Walaupun falsafah liberal dapat memainkan peranan sebagai pemangkin perubahan konsep konservatif, namun masih terdapat banyak kekurangan yang boleh diisi dengan pendekatan falsafah tradisi konservatif. Umpamanya dalam masalah psikologi pelajar yang menyebabkan perlanggaran disiplin dan moral secara berleluasa; tidak dapat dinafikan; ialah disebabkan falsafah liberal yang tidak terkawal. Ini ditambah pula dengan pendapat-pendapat luar yang tidak mempunyai kepentingan secara langsung didalam keilmuan pedagogi kecuali kepentingan peribadi dan perniagaan. Senario ini juga mampu menggugat sistem pendidikan negara. Dari itu, falsafah konservatif yang sesetengahnya disesuaikan daripada ajaran keagamaan masih perlu memainkan peranan dalam dunia materialistik. Bergantunglah ke atas kepandaian guru itu sendiri dalam memilih cara yang terbaik untuk menangani sebarang masalah yang timbul. Ini hanya dapat digarap menerusi pengalaman yang dilaluinya. Disinilah kita dapat lihat pula kelebihannya memihak kepada guru-guru yang berumur yang kaya dengan kaedah intelektual, sosial dan budaya yang jarang dapat dipelajari daripada buku pedagogi sendiri. Dalam hal ini, keupayaan menyesuaikan diri dengan budaya kawasan tempat mengajar juga perlu diambilkira. Kadangkala apa yang dipelajari belum tentu dapat dipraktikkan kecuali jika guru itu mempunyai pengetahuan tambahan seperti telematik.

Kurikulum pendidikan boleh berubah tetapi tidak boleh terlalu banyak perubahan kerana ianya akan hanya menghasilkan kegagalan dalam tempoh jangkapanjang. Perubahan mendadak akan menyebabkan pelajar yang akan menjadi mangsa. Kuasa dan hak juga perlu digariskan dengan lebih jelas umpamanya di antara PIBG, tenaga pengajar, kakitangan, jabatan dan Kementerian Pendidikan serta orang awam. Jika hak ini hanya dibuat di atas kertas tanpa penerangan yang jelas kepada semua pihak yang disebutkan lebih-lebih lagi orang awam dan ibubapa, pastinya banyak masalah yang akan timbul termasuklah isu perkauman, perundangan, perbezaan tahap/diskriminasi dan politik. Kebelakangan ini, kita rasa ganjil mendengar 'kriteria kelayakan' bagi memilih peneraju umpamanya barisan pemimpin PIBG yang terdiri dari mereka yang mempunyai 'pengaruh' (politik biasanya) di mana ini adalah sesuatu yang kurang menepati prosedur pemilihan dan standard.

Pengaruh Falsafah Kritikal

Falsafah kritikal berpendapat bahawa pengetahuan perlu melalui proses budaya, sejarah, etnik dan linguistik sesuai dengan konsep asalnya. Tenaga pengajar akan dapat menggunakan unsur dalam membantu pelajar lebih memahami isu-isu semasa terutamanya persamaan dan keadilan sosial bagi melahirkan suasana demokratik. Pengetahuan asas mengenai struktur masyarakat seperti ekonomi, negara, tempat kerja dan budaya pelbagai juga ditekankan. Kurikulum perlu mampu menjadi pelantar kritik ke atas pengetahuan berbentuk dominan. Falsafah kritikal juga banyak menekankan disiplin seorang guru dalam menyebarkan pengetahuan kepada pelajar.

Pelajar lebih banyak perlu diberikan ruang untuk bertanya tanpa melebihkan peluang berkenaan hanya kepada guru semata-mata. Penyesuaian kepada kehendak komuniti setempat akan menyemarakkan semangat pelajar untuk belajar dan akan cuba memperbaiki taraf kehidupannya yang serba kekurangan apabila berjaya nanti. Pelajar juga perlu diberikan peluang untuk menilai pengetahuan yang diterima, menyuarakan pendapat, menentukan pengetahuan dan kemahiran yang sesuai diterima oleh mereka dan siapakah tenaga pengajar dan bahan yang digunakan dalam membantu mereka berjaya. Kerjasama kedua belah pihak di antara tenaga pengajar dan pelajar secara lebih terbuka adalah penting.

Namun, ada yang berpendapat bahawa falsafah kritikal dikatakan hanya berdasarkan teori dan tidak mampu dipraktikkan walaupun usaha memperkenalkannya telah lama dijalankan. Ianya juga dikatakan terlalu banyak pengaruh fahaman sosiologi dan politik yang sempit dan ternyata banyak kegagalan dihadapi apabila cuba untuk dilaksanakan. Sejauh mana benar dan bernasnya pendapat ini tidaklah dapat disahkan. Apa yang jelas ialah falsafah kritikal mungkin menjadi 'tindanan'(overlap) kepada cadangan integrasi falsafah konservatif dan liberal.

Kurikulum baru perlu menjelaskan keperluan pelajar secara lebih meluas dalam konteks demokratik dan bukannya berdasarkan kepada agenda politik teori kritikal. Ianya hanya meningkatkan kemahiran dan pengetahuan dalam disiplin ilmu yang dipelajarinya sahaja.

Piawaian berhubung dengan sesuatu prinsip matematik, pembangunan haipotesis saintifik, kemahiran berkomunikasi samada secara lisan atau tulisan, dan analisa sebab dan musabab berdasarkan sejarah adalah suatu pengetahuan yang begitu mustahak.

Mereka akan jadi terasing dan hegemonik jika tidak mempelajari teori atau mendapat pendedahan baru jika lebih ditekankan kepada mempelajari kehendak komuniti setempat sahaja. Ini bukanlah bererti kita perlu menenepikan kehendak komuniti setempat tetapi dengan hanya bergantung kepada sejarah, budaya, adat resam, peradaban, tamadun, ilmu dan lain-lain dalam skop yang kecil akan menjadikan mereka sebagai tidak bermobilisasi dan terlalu parokial dan chauvinistik.

Standard baru yang bakal diperkenalkan tentunya sukar untuk dilancarkan dan mencapai kata putus secara kolektif, jika falsafah kritikal melebarkan pengaruhnya. Dalam pendapat saya, integrasi falsafah liberal dan konservatif yang sedia ada telah pun mencukupi dan menjelaskan keperluan-keperluan kritikal secara generik.

Standard gabungan ini perlu menekankan jaringan yang padu, kerjasama, unsur konstruktif, kreativiti, persefahaman, kemahiran, pengurusan pengetahuan, pedagogi, pendidikan, kurikulum dan lain-lain dengan semua pihak yang berkepentingan samada di peringkat Kementerian, agensi kerajaan yang berkaitan, sektor korporat, institusi professional, ibubapa, pelajar dan orang ramai. Sudah tiba masanya, Malaysia mempunyai sistem pendidikan dan pedagoginya yang tersendiri dalam pembinaan dasar dan kurikulum.

Segala prasarana perlu diwujudkan dengan segera dengan kerjasama semua pihak dan tidak hanya terbatas atau bergantung sepenuhnya kepada Kementerian Pendidikan semata-mata (minda subsidi atau minda peruntukan) Dalam kegawatan ekonomi yang kini sedang menunjukkan tanda-tanda pemulihan, semua pihak perlu menunjukkan rasa prihatin terhadap suasana pendidikan, pedagogi dan kurikulum negara kerana ini merupakan punca kepada kemunculan ahli ilmu, tenaga professional, tokoh korporat, pemimpin dan sebagainya yang bakal mencorak masa hadapan negara. Ianya perlu mendapat perhatian segera kerana masalah remaja semakin meningkat - hari demi hari.

Saya memuji tindakan Kementerian Pendidikan (kini Kementerian Pelajaran & Kementerian Pengajian Tinggi - Peng.) yang begitu berusaha keras ke arah perubahan dengan mengadakan begitu banyak seminar dan bengkel berkenaan peningkatan kualiti dalam pendidikan serta pedagogi negara kebelakangan ini. Didapati banyak kaedah-kaedah yang sesetengahnya telah disebutkan di atas telah mula diberikan perhatian oleh golongan pendidik, pelajar, warga akademik dan semua pihak yang berkepentingan.

Isu ini kini telah menjadi tanggungjawab semua yang ingin melihat generasi yang lebih baik dalam usaha mencapai keunggulan sehingga ke peringkat bilik darjah dengan suasana yang penuh demokratik. Ini akan dicapai dengan perhubungan pedagogi dengan keperluan, minat dan tujuan pelajar itu sendiri. Latarbelakang pelbagai pelajar dari segi etnik, agama, cara dibesarkan, keluarga, lokasi tempat tinggal dsb. boleh dijadikan ilham dan input kepada standard baru ini.

Jika ini gagal dilakukan, maka standard yang sedia ada akan diteruskan secara didaktik dengan epistimoloji yang positivis. Pastinya, yang menjadi mangsa adalah pelajar dan bukannya pendidik. Sistem pendidikan perlu lebih kepada memaksimakan potensi pelajar itu sendiri sebagai persediaan menghadapi alam remaja, pendidikan tinggi dan akhirnya pekerjaan. Pelajar perlu mendapatkan pendedahan ini kerana ianya akan pasti meninggalkan impak dalam kehidupan seterusnya.

Satu tinjauan ke atas pelajar dan latarbelakangnya perlu diadakan seberapa segera. Kadangkala pelajar sendiri boleh mengemukakan ideanya diatas kertas bagi membantu hasrat ini. Secara teorinya, pengemukaan idea serta perbincangan terbuka tanpa prasangka akan menaikkan sifat kekitaan atau pemilikan ke atas idea dan sekolah tempat dia belajar.

Projek seumpama ini telah pun dijalankan di negara-negara maju yang lain di mana satu konsensus telah dicapai mengenai pengurusan pengetahuan (knowledge management - asas K-Ekonomi) secara :-

1. berprosedur,
2. memahami idea secara mendalam,
3. mengetahui cara-cara mencari dan menilai maklumat,
4. menjadi pembaca/penulis/pendengar/pensyarah/pemikir yang lebih berkesan, produktif, strategis (terutamanya dalam menghasilkan keputusan dan penyelesaian masalah secara reaktif atau proaktif)
5. kerjasama dalam satu pasukan.
6. Tahu memanipulasi teknologi dan mengaplikasikan pengetahuan mengikut suasana.

Tajuk yang ditetapkan biasanya tidak spesifik tetapi berkaitan dengan peningkatan kualiti pedagogi, pendidikan, kurikulum dan dasar. Pelajar-pelajar dibenarkan menggunakan sokongan audio-visual, biasanya persembahan grafik dan animasi teks menerusi komputer (multimedia) bagi menyuarakan pendapatnya mengikut apa yang dikajinya. Mereka diberikan kebebasan mencari maklumat daripada mana-mana sumber samada, orang ramai, ibubapa, perpustakaan, keratan akhbar, internet, pengalaman sendiri, pengaruh etnik/budaya/adab resam/tamaddun/agama, perundangan dan lain-lain. Konsep ini dikenali sebagai 'rubrik' yang mementingkan persembahan lisan dan bagaimana pelajar mengendalikan maklumbalas termasuk kritik daripada panel diskusi yang terdiri daripada rakan pelajarnya serta gurunya.

Sekiranya sebarang ketidakpatuhan kepada kehendak spesifikasi (yang ditetapkan secara kolektif sebelumnya) akan diambil tindakan pembetulan dan pencegahan seberapa segera. Kemudian pelajar dikehendaki membuat persembahan kedua sehinggalah ianya memuaskan kehendak rakan pelajarnya dan gurunya.

Cara ini terbukti menjadikan tenaga pendidik lebih serasi dengan standard baru dan didapati mereka lebih prihatin untuk memperbaiki kelemahan mereka sendiri dan pelajar serta meningkatkan kualiti kedua-belah pihak secara bersinambung. Sebarang pindaan akan dilakukan dan mungkin diluluskan serta-merta dan pihak atasan pendidikan akan diberikan sesalinan pindaan berkenaan. Pengurusan sekolah akan diberikan masa untuk 'trial-run' konsep baru yang diperkenalkan. Mereka kemudiannya akan diaudit oleh pihak berkuasa pendidikan bagi memastikan apa yang ditulis/dipinda itu diamalkan. Sekiranya terbukti berjaya, maka sebarang idea baru yang dikemukakan akan menjadi asas ukuran (benchmark) kepada perubahan di peringkat pusat. Di sini kita dapat lihat unsur demokratik yang sebenar telah dipraktikkan dan dalam konteks kualiti, semua pihak berpuashati kerana ianya merupakan cadangan kolektif mereka sendiri. Pihak atasan hanya memantau bagi mempastikan kepatuhan dan keberkesanan dan memberikan nasihat dan panduan perundangan jika perlu.