JAPAN WILL SURVIVE! - ARTICLE AND RESEARCH BY NIK ZAFRI


What is happening in Japan is very tragic. Our hearts go out to all those suffering.

It is with heavy heart when I wrote this article as too many questions been e-mailed to me about the post-economic effects of the Tsunami and quakes in Northern Japan.

Definitely oil prices slumped below $98/barrel. This would be worse depending on the situation at the nuclear plant.

Some large nations including China is cutting back nuclear-investment. It means that there is and will be higher demand for oil.

Already global stock markets sharp falls have been observed.

I stand with other global analysts that the immediate dampening effect of the earthquake on Japanese oil demand soon would be reversed. Let not anyone forget about the current crisis the Middle East and North Africa, recovery process in Egypt and the latest "Libya and Gaddafi's Factor" is also affecting the global oil price.

On Japan itself, yes they will be affected somehow - judging by the past experience of Kobe, it has caused > USD100 billion of damages with more than 5000 people are killed.

The death toll now; as I speak; unfortunately; is more than Kobe. Not to mention the grid and network of electrical and communication which may affect macroecomically speaking across the nation.

Furthermore, global ripple effects especially on the United States would be on the auto industry, semiconductors etc.

How would investors in Japan react?

Not good, there are talks about them dumping some of that debt (government bond) in Japan despite assurance there will be budget - spend massive amounts of money rebuilding infrastructure and factories in Northern Japan.

Also there have been rumours about pulling yen out of the abroad market for rehabilitation purposes in the affected places in Japan. But the affect is short term and yen may strengthen but not in the interest of the Feds. With the sharp increase of commodity and oil prices, interest rates might be pushed up.

For the opportunists or 'profitists?' (if there is such word)?

Well as usual - sort term sell-offs = long term gain if you are up to it.

1. Auto industry - Japan's sales is more focussed outside and performing splendidly - take Toyota for example - they will go through this as they still have cash - lots of them

2. Nuclear & Uranium - Operators are worried about regulatory and political even monetary policies.

This is a normal case - If you all recall the BP/oil spill case which lead to more offshore drilling - then please do not worry.

I quote this from Motley fool website :

Southern Co. (NYSE: SO) and Exelon (NYSE: EXC) stand out as two intriguing names that have traded off a bit on the market's tumults. Exelon, in particular, has been hit hard and offers big upside. Exelon might be the largest nuclear power producer in the U.S., but about 1/3 of its power generating capacity comes from sources other than nuclear. For that matter, the company operates regulated utilities which offer very consistent cash flow and, frankly, have no real exposure to the drama you're seeing on television. Put it all together with a 5% dividend yield and a valuation that already assumes paltry growth, and you're looking at a bargain.


The Motley Fool are so cool that they also 'agree' to my answer :

Shrinking in uranium demand? No way. China and Russia will continue to create a long term demand growth!!

We have seen how Japan move up after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, after Kobe incident - so what would stop them from going up after this one? Because of there will be heavy spending - in the medium term - they will be UP!

I'm not a Japanese but I do know how the system works over there...so don't create more panic, do not listen to rumours.
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Menjawab soalan dari seorang rakan di luar negara mengenai impak pos-bencana di Jepun ke atas negara-negara ASEAN


Nik Zafri :

Terima kasih saudara kerana soalan berkenaan.

Secara ringkasnya :

KDNK Jepun akan menjadi perlahan tetapi hanyalah bersifat sementara tetapi saya pasti ianya akan 'pick-up' pertengahan 2011 kerana program pembinaan semula.

Walaupun terdapat laporan ketidaktentuan kerana reaktor nuklear, berpandukan pengalaman Hiroshima dan Nagasaki, mereka pasti akan berjaya dalam usaha membangunkan semula negara matahari terbit ini.

Terdapat suara-suara kebimbangan di kalangan negara ASEAN namun impak sebenarnya adalah sangat terhad kecuali sektor pengeluaran automotif dan elektronik.

Potensi KDNK ASEAN sangat tinggi kerana keupayaannya untuk melepasi tahap bahaya selepas krisis global yang bermula dari US (Sab-Prima) dahulu. Jadi saya berpendapat ASEAN akan dapat memproses impak bencana Jepun dengan baik serta merancang satu usaha untuk melepasi tahap ini pula. Kita sebenarnya bertuah kerana mempunyai ramai pemikir-pemikir strategik di negara-negara ASEAN.

Yang paling penting, kita mengawal perasaan supaya kita tidak panik. Kerana, andaikan kita gagal mengawal impak dengan baik, kita akan berhadapan dengan masalah baru iaitu inflasi kerana terdapat tanda-tanda kenaikan dalam kemasukan portfolio modal, kenaikan harga komoditi serta makanan. Negara-negara yang berpendapatan rendah akan pasti merasai kesan ini.

Seperti biasa, tugas mencari jalan bagi merendahkan kadar inflasi sekiranya ia berlaku bergantung kepada negara-negara ASEAN lain untuk merangka satu cara atau polisi yang strategik.Kenaikan komoditi secara berterusan mungkin akan menyebabkan situasi ketidaktentuan di masa hadapan.


Saya mendapat beberapa info dari rakan penganalisa barat yang rata-rata memberitahu saya bahawa ASEAN mempunyai potensi yang tinggi TERUTAMANYA Malaysia dan Singapura disebabkan situasi ketidaktentuan di Timur Tengah, Eropah, Korea dan kini di Jepun.

Oleh sebab kedudukan ini, Malaysia perlu memainkan peranan besar dalam ASEAN termasuk China.

Walaupun China akan menjadi kuasa ekonomi yang besar terutamanya pengekspot dan pengeluar, namun ianya akan bergantung kepada sokongan rakan-rakan ASEANnya. Di sini Malaysia boleh berkongsi pengalaman menerusi proses industrialisasi dan urbanisasi yang selama ini terbukti menjadikan Malaysia negara maju pada tahun 2020.

Lagi pun, Malaysia merupakan satu-satunya negara yang masih aman, maju dan makmur serta tidak mengalami apa-apa bencana alam yang besar seperti negara-negara lain di dunia. Alhamdulillah.

Wassalam - perlu diingatkan ini adalah pendapat peribadi berdasarkan kajian saya dan bukanlah mewakili mana-mana pihak.

SHORT NOTE : COMMODITY PRICE CORRELATION TO OIL, GOLD AND CURRENCY - BY NIK ZAFRI



What is the next move?

This is one of the most important question being asked to me by traders as everyone wants to make money.

"I've attended wealth seminars and attempted my level best to follow everything that has being taught. It works to a certain level but after a while, it's already too late for me to turn back. I made losses later"


I told the traders that making money is easier said than done.

Those who are involved in currency trading need to take into account a lot of things rather than be "sitting at your pc, laptop or any other gadgets and look at the charts" (and 'look like a professional' and hope that passers by looking at you would deem highly of you while you're sitting at Starbucks or some 5 Star Hotel Lobby wearing smartly using free wi-fi facility without buying any refreshments)

Economy still and will play an important role - all rules apply - export, demand and supply, growth, interest rates, GDP etc. Without all these (FX + Economy), then the next step would probably be is - to justify how politics play a role in what we termed as "sentiment".

All sentiments have a justification. Without justification - the sentiment is equivalent to a rumour or turned against you as speculation and irrational hedging.

Understand that commodity can play a big role in the market.

Once you see that a certain currency has a weaker correlation (with commodity price), then put them aside immediately. Don't take any further risk. (in short - don't try to be a hero)

What about Oil and Gold?

Yes, two of the most popular benchmark. Here's the deal :

Fluctuation of Commodity Price = Sudden surge of oil price

Sudden Surge of Oil Price is most likely TEMPORARY (trust me) - yes, at least a year or so, it will plummet back.

Gold hit a high price (again TEMPORARY) = and again hit a low price also in a year or so (every year I see this trend)

Once again the price of commodity; taking into account - global recession; plays a role in understanding the bearish and the bullish situation.

USD and oil are closely related but the correlation tends to break on daily basis - but it becomes stronger in the long run. This however requires patience and no panicking. USD is an inverse trading instrument thus making the 'strangest' thing happening - USD go down, oil price goes up - vice versa.


(Japan)

(I need to point out that whenever oil price skyrocketted will make some countries suffer for example Japan. A fully industrialized nation but depending on the imports for primary energy. Just look at the trading history of USD against Yen - it's important that that oil price 'to fall' to ensure break a certain level to hit lower)


Which Currency correlated with Gold in a harmonious way?



You don't need 3 guesses for that - it's definitely Australian Dollar. (it's not surprising that they are the top 3 gold producers) Australian dollar appreciates as much as the rising of gold prices. New Zealand is getting advantage out of Australia's prosperity and NZ never had much problem exporting its goods. Again seeing the fine commodity trend in Australia, I'm not a bit surprised that they will always be the FIRST to be out of the recession. So again, commodity!


Political Sentiment?

Neutrality and Uncertainty of Politics do play a big role in correlating gold prices and the currency.

Here's my simple formula :

1) A healthy politics (in the eyes of the traders) will usually turn gold as a support a certain currency

2) Unhealthy politics will usually switch the trading of that particular currency to another currency which is backed up by gold during 'healthy politics'.

The only thing that can break this relationship is decoupling (refer 09/2005 when USD decoupled from gold price movements)

Closing

Smart experienced traders tend to switch commodity and currency or vice versa. The earn interest with high margin but taking into account countries having interest rates. Again, I didn't say that there is no risk.

e.g.

3% from e.g. Central Bank
= amount earned subtract 0% rates paid (shorting USD for e.g.)
= 10X leverage (underleveraged rates).
= surge of interest income whenever net of exchange rate changes.

But don't count on this - you will see how dangerous this situation to you when the trade turns against you.



Play safe : Although the effects are slow, commodity prices can still be used as a benchmark on gold, oil and currency market.

The death of the 'decoupling' theory?

By Conrad de Aenlle Published: January 25, 2008

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., on Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2008. U.S. stocks pared their biggest decline since 2002 after the Federal Reserve's emergency rate cut helped mitigate concern the economy is slipping into recession. (Jin Lee/Bloomberg News)

No one can say how much has been lost by investors basing decisions on unproven strategies that work in theory, but the amount has grown significantly. As trillions of dollars were wiped off the value of global stocks this week, "decoupling" became the latest big idea to shrink dramatically when tested in the real world.

Decoupling holds that European and Asian economies, especially emerging ones, have broadened and deepened to the point that they no longer depend on the United States for growth, leaving them insulated from a severe slowdown there, even a fully fledged recession. Faith in the concept has generated strong outperformance for stocks outside the United States - until now.

As opinion began to solidify after the start of the year that a recession, or something close to it, was likely in the United States, stock prices accelerated their declines, with the selling intensifying early this week. Contrary to what the decouplers would have expected, the losses were greater outside the United States, with the worst experienced in emerging markets and such developed economies as Germany and Japan.

Exports make up especially large portions of economic activity in those places, but that was not supposed to matter anymore in a decoupled world because domestic activity was thought to be so robust.

Decoupling was all the rage early last year when international financial markets all but ignored the increasing turmoil in the U.S. economy and stock market. Investment advisers point out, however, that the segments of the U.S. economy that were showing wear and tear then were those to which the rest of the world would never be heavily exposed. That is no longer true, they say, and markets are responding accordingly.

"Decoupling is yesterday's story," Stuart Schweitzer, a global strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, declared. "Last year, when the U.S. slowdown was driven almost entirely by housing, it made sense that the rest of the world kept right on going. Housing is a domestic story, plain and simple.

"The nature of the slowdown has changed in two key respects. The credit crunch that began in midsummer is not just a U.S. phenomenon; the rise in risk aversion is global and will have an impact on credit terms and availability everywhere. And we're finally seeing evidence that the U.S. job market is losing steam and consumer spending is slowing."

True believers in decoupling have ignored another theory that appears to be logically inconsistent with it, has been popular for far longer and, most important, has been shown to work in real life. Remember globalization?

"If anything, global interdependence of economies is rising, not falling," said Jeff Applegate, chief investment officer of Citi Global Wealth Management.

"The notion that the U.S. can go into recession with no negative knock-on effect in the rest of the world doesn't hold up."

Andrew Foster, head of equity research for Matthews International Capital, a specialist in Asian markets, contends that it is possible for globalization and decoupling to coexist. In fact, one gave rise to the other, he said. It was only through economic liberalization that the juggernaut economies of Asia were able to grow as fast as they have, allowing for the development of conspicuously consuming middle classes.

"The irony is that these economies are more coupled with the rest of the world than they ever were in the past," he said. "That's why they're so strong, and that has allowed them to become more independent."

The new Asian consumers may not be able to compensate for all of the exports that would be lost during an American recession, Foster said, but some of the companies that serve their needs might still do all right for themselves. The true decoupling may be not so much between the United States and the rest of the world as between segments of the global economy that cater to the burgeoning nouveau riche in emerging economies on one hand and most other commercial sectors on the other.

With the United States apparently tipping over into recession, Foster is looking to fill his Asia portfolios with the first type of businesses, as long as they have not been bid up to unreasonable levels already. A couple of pockets of opportunity that he finds are Chinese insurance companies and Indian health care providers.

"I like companies that don't derive their fortunes from products, services and especially commodities dominated by the global business cycle," he said, although he declined to furnish examples.

Valuation is also critical for Michael Avery, chief investment officer of Waddell & Reed and a professed believer in decoupling - up to a point. He noted that the concept began to pop into the heads of professional investors, including his, during the last U.S. recession, in 2001-2002, although it had not yet achieved buzzword status.

"A lot of people in our business were thinking about where the world was going to head in a post-9/11 environment," Avery recalled. "The U.S. economy had slowed dramatically in 2001, and you had places in the world like China and India that continued to grow at mid- to high single digits. That set in motion the thinking that the U.S. might not be the leading economic force going forward."

But while he accepts the basic idea of economic decoupling, he is not fanatical about it as an investment theme, at least not now. The emerging world will grow faster than the United States, in his view, but Avery doubts that sufficient growth can be achieved to justify the valuations being put on companies in those markets by the new wave of decoupling adherents.

"The big difference in 2002 is that not many people placed bets on that outcome, so there wasn't much risk," he said.

"Now I can go anywhere, and if I talk about China and India and the emerging middle class, they all nod their heads. It's a huge difference from five years ago."

Avery still finds value in some domestically oriented sectors in Asia, as well as in Middle Eastern markets that continue to benefit from one key export, crude oil. He noted that while exports to the United States of less viscous products may be at risk, the growth of middle-class spending is promoting a healthy expansion of trade within the emerging world.

Avery made a big bet on declining share prices late last year when he sold short derivative contracts tied to benchmark stock indexes. But his Ivy Asset Strategy Fund has substantial holdings in such plays on emerging-market domestic demand as the phone company China Mobile; Veolia Environnement, a French producer of water treatment systems, and Las Vegas Sands, an American hotel and casino operator expanding into Macao.

In addition to selling stock index futures, Avery has about 10 percent of his portfolio each in gold, cash and Treasury bonds as hedges against the uncertainties and jolts that would accompany a U.S. recession.

Tim Guinness, chairman and chief investment officer of Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, is another whose objection to decoupling is more a matter of how it works in practice.

"I'm a moderate decoupling believer," he acknowledged. "I'm in the camp that believes that China is rapidly moving from being dependent on exports to the U.S. to enjoying a virtuous circle of rapidly rising incomes for Chinese consumers and very strong momentum behind internally driven growth."

There is momentum in China's stock market, too, he noted, but in a different direction. Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of decoupling is giving back much of its enormous gains of the last few years as investors break faith with the concept.

"I prefer China, but not today," Guinness said. "The next few months will see a continued retreat in China-related stocks. The correction already has been very pronounced."

He prefers less bubbly stock markets in emerging economies where domestic demand is strong, like South Korea and Thailand. Individual stocks that he favors include PTT in Thailand, Singapore Petroleum and Cemig, a Brazilian hydroelectric company.

Applegate, at Citi, finds stocks better value than bonds. He particularly likes global banks and stocks in Europe and emerging markets generally, although he considers China and Hong Kong fairly pricey.

Bonds and equities have experienced sharply diverging fortunes recently. Many stock markets are more than 20 percent below their 2007 highs, while yields on government bonds have plummeted, sending their prices aloft.

Movements in both markets suggest that investors are factoring a global recession into their thinking, a development that could set the stage for the next rally in stocks and render the decoupling argument moot.

Another theory, with a proven track record, states that stocks should be bought once the economy is recognized to be in recession. By then, share prices account for all or most of the bad news, the authorities have taken steps to correct imbalances and a recovery is often imminent.

"Play the movie forward," Applegate said. "If the economy is going to soften globally, then can you expect more central bank policy response? The answer is a resounding yes."

In such conditions, he said, "you should have more of a preference for equities over bonds."

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Nik Zafri's Comments : I've been saying it!!!

Reasons for Economical Disturbances :

a. Crude oil price volatility

b. Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis

c. The Fall of Share Market

d. The Fall of global corporate guns/bluechips

e. Anything else?

Chain-Reaction

a. USD exchange badly affected,
b. Price of Food going up?
c. Refinancing and repackaging of assets/properties, loans even credit cards to a longer repayment but with higher interest?
d. Heavy Hedging and Sell-Offs
e. Bad Fall in Motor & Transportation Industries – closed down – Lehman Brothers, GM etc.

MORE HERE :

The Star Global Malaysians Forum

nikzafri-11 January 2006 at 9:48pm wrote:

Someone very wise** once told me (in 1998) - during my 'downfall' (** - Ybhg Tuan Haji Ahmad bin Che Din of Taman Merdeka, Selama, Perak - my mentor) 1. Invest in Gold 2. Invest in Agricultural Products Not long after that, the Honourable Tun Dr. Mahathir started to talk about prospects of 'Dinar Emas and Gold Coins'. In 2005, YAB Prime Minister, Dato Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi gave further and stronger emphasis on expanding the prospects of Biotechnology (focus : agricultural). It's not something to be too serious about or 'hitting the panic button' scenario but it's something worth pondering. ----------------------------- Today, as reported in the Star : http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/1/11/nation/13075088&sec=nation Rising value of gold makes it a good investment By EDWARD RAJENDRA edward@thestar.com.my KLANG: Step aside, athletes. Businessmen are going for gold these days. Federal and Selangor Indian Goldsmith Association adviser N.P. Raman believe that businessmen and cash-rich people were purchasing gold for investment. “It is business logic to include gold in a diversified investment portfolio. Gold can act as a hedge against inflation. Keeping your assets in gold is sound economic sense,” he said. Yesterday, the gold price stood at RM2,090 an ounce, compared with RM1,617 on June 5 last year. Raman said that for those with cash, gold was a good buy as long-term savings, and added that gold coins would be a better choice. “A person who buys gold coins now would get the market price of the day when he decides to sell it,” he said. Going by the market trend now, Raman said, the price of gold was expected to escalate. “Right now, it is about RM70 a gram, and is expected to hit RM100 per gram in two to three months,” he said. Raman operates from Jalan Tengku Kelana, where scores of goldsmiths are located. Most of them are worried that middle-income people, who form the bulk of their customers, will not be able to afford gold now. “For Indians, the period between mid-January and March 15 is an auspicious time for weddings. It is a time for a roaring business but now couples are resorting to simple three-pound gold chains instead of nine pounds. Their buying power has weakened,” he said. Nik It's not something to be too serious about or 'hitting the panic button' scenario but it's something worth pondering.

-----------------------------------
Here it comes again :

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/2/3/business/13290549&sec=business

Gold hits 25-year high in London

LONDON: Gold rose to a 25-year high in London as gains in crude oil prices increased speculation that inflation will accelerate, eroding the value of assets such as stocks and bonds.

Gold rose 18% last year in London as investors bought the metal as a hedge against record oil prices stoking inflation.

Oil rose before the United Nations' atomic watchdog meets today to consider referring Iran's nuclear programme to the Security Council, which may impose sanctions the second largest exporter in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).

nikzafri - 02 January 2006 at 5:41pm wrote:
http://www.globalmalaysians.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=465&PN=1
3) ...Have a 'cushion to fall on' in the case of inflation...

“Rising oil prices will continue to keep gold prices buoyant this year, as it's likely to lead to inflation,” Ross Norman, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, said in an interview yesterday.

Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as US$3.85, or 0.7%, to US$573.20 an ounce, the highest since January 1981. It traded at US$572.99 at 10:09am London time.

The situation in Iran was a “double whammy” for the gold market, Norman said.

“It increases geopolitical tension as well as oil prices, both of which are good for gold,” he added.

Crude oil for March delivery rose as much as 63 US cents, or 1%, to US$67.19 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

World gold prices are likely to rise to US$610 an ounce by March/April, but this is unlikely to deter Indians from importing the same amount of the precious metal in 2006 as last year, according to the head of the country's leading bullion trade body.

Mukul Sonawala, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, said on Wednesday that gold could see a small correction before it rose again.

He said a price of US$540 per ounce would provide a buying opportunity.

“There is inherent strength in the market,” Sonawala told Reuters. “All the fundamental factors are pointing to that.” – Agencies
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Posted: 24 February 2007 at 3:34pm

My Gold Fact Sheet

Gold price indicates:

a) inherent value
b) quoted currency relative strength

On Supply/Demand

- the price will always be stable and doesn't seem to be much effected by even reduction in supply or in net selling by the bank,

- demand - be it raw material or investment) still going high - (you can simply based on sales of jewellery - ask my wife)

- supply - production results, hedging by mining companies, scrap/net sales by bank -all still going steady

Investment

As Portfolio diversifier. All over the world, calculation is based on standard
returns correlation/volatility.

And of course - Gold is a Reserve Asset.

What? There's more?

- inflation seem to have not much effect on Gold as well,
- Gold is all time purchasing power indicator,
- Gold's liquidity power is guaranteed,
- in case anything happen (even market crash), gold will come to the rescue
- provide confidence, insurance, assurance and security (try keeping them, or perhaps buy a genuine Rolex at least, you'll know)

END OF LINE....

Agriculture

(Search the NET..you'll know)

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 15 February 2006 at 6:51pm

Quickies on Global Economy

2004 - catching up. 2005 - a bit slow. 2006 - moderate perhaps at 3.5 %. average growth.Progress in developing countries - coming up fast. Performance in US, Europe and Japan - moderate. South East Asia - forecasted 5-6% growth (2006)

Key Global Issues requiring attention 2006 :

* employment,
* inflation,
* surging/fluctuation/control of oil price,
* deficit,
* stock market and other investments,
* balancing liquidity and interest rates,
* Global Exchange Rate/Fiscal policies - review and improve till the best is achieved,
* Disease & Epidemic Control
* Terrorism
* Price of Non-Oil Commodity
* Natural Disasters

Good News?

* Property Market - potentially booming
* International Trade - still OK
* more Free Trade Zone (hopefully)
* Food & Drugs Industry - still OK
* Service industry - still OK but be more susceptible 'on things happening around you'

Alert?

* Agriculture/Biotechnology - focus on domestic growth rather export,
* International Conventions - 'walk the talk - not talk the walk' - no lip services,
* More FDIs
* More financing and debt relief
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Posted: 13 March 2006 at 6:03pm

I think almost all quarters relevant have unanimously agreed that the stock market and the economy will see a better performance this year.

Since earnings from export have now shown signs of good performance, the GDP will definitely rise to - if not = 6% at least > 5%. I'm also 'betting' on this year's GLC's improved performance and FDI pouring in. I must say that I'm quite impressed with 'positive' signs been happening around me since nearly a week now (that's explains my 'long dissapearance' from this forum topic for almost a fortnight. Well, been roaming in the physical world to run some 'experiments') such as smooth mergers and acquisitions of finance/banking sectors, current stock value on the exchange, increased interest in Mesdaq, - hmmm...we should be lucky I guess.

I wanted to be optimistic for just this moment - The above concise statement would definitely be 'absorbed' into the 'uncertainties' to 'restore balance' especially those related to interest rates, oil price, policies, inflation, ringgit alignment, technology etc. The 'balancing restoration' will create the 'cushion' for future impact.

Yeap...I think we're quite ready...

p.s. 15/03/2006 - forgot to add another issue - employment...I'm also quite happy to see some 'corporate sectors' especially banking/finance move to take in graduates - training and paying them more handsome allowances - eventually employing them.

The Star Global Malaysians Forum - Posted: 27 July 2006 at 8:11pm

TYPICAL INDICATORS TO FORECAST ECONOMY

Indicators

a. Prime Interest Rate/Interbank Offerred Rate
b. Mortgage Interest Rate
c. Treasury Yields
d. GDP
e. Crude Oil and Gold Price
f. Unemployment Rate (some look deeper into crime rate)
g. Inflation Rate
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Quoting Howard G. Schaefer - In his book 'Economic Trend Analysis for Executives and Investors', Chapter 1 - Introduction

With so many factors to be considered, interpreting economic data is a daunting task. Indeed, attempting to interpret economic data presented in the form of millions, billions, and trillions of dollars is enough to discourage most people. Nevertheless, forecasting economic conditions is an essential element of sound business and investment decisions. To make these decisions executives and investors need a simple and timely method of understanding and evaluating economic data.

Graphs and charts have become very popular for simplifying information. Trend analysis is one of the principal means used to convey economic data to business, investors, and government. That is, statistical data are plotted on a chart so the reader can observe trends. As an example, the index of industrial production for the month of February 1992 was reported as 107.2, representing a 0.4% increase over the preceding January and a 1.4% increase from the preceding year

A published chart showing the trend indicated that the nation's industrial production was improving. But it did not address whether the trend would continue. Executives and investors need to make decisions based on future expectations, not just past performances. Without a consideration of the many factors that affect economic performance, a trend line has limited uses.

A newer technique called relationship analysis provides a much better understanding of economic data and future economic trends than trend analysis. Relationship analysis compares one set of economic data to another to determine whether there is a consistent relationship between the two sets of data that explains current economic conditions and indicates future economic trends. One principal advantage of relationship analysis is that the information is conveyed without the long delay for accumulating the economic data necessary to spot the trend.
--------------------------------
Adapted from the original Posting in The Star Global Malaysians Forum
- Posted: 31 July 2006 at 5:32pm

ECONOMIC FORECASTING - WHAT'S IN IT FOR ME?
(Nik Zafri's version of Forecasting Economy for Dummies)

Most people are scared listening or even coming across economical terminologies. Indeed they (the terminologies) are not ‘laymen user-friendly’. Thus, most of us tend to 'shy away' especially those in small businesses not knowing the consequences of ignoring the current facts/reality of economy. To worsen situation, even the typical accounting tasks such as cash-flow monitoring has been ignored.

Don’t worry, it’s nothing too technical - in fact even economists in many occassions fail to do accurate economical forecasts and most of them end up arguing to defend their hypotheses.

Here’s some simple indicators (what YOU should know – the technical explanations are for the economists to worry about) :

a) GDP – most popular one – to you – don’t wait for the annual results but monitor the implementation of target, if you see in 5-6 months – it’s stil negative, then buckle up.

b) Consumer Price Index – to you – it tells you products/services – price/fee (fluctuations as well) etc. You could almost prophecise that you might be in trouble when you found out that you’re paying MORE than before.

c) Interest rate (it’s rising)– to you - it tells the level of ‘troubleness’ you’re encountering especially if you have a loan to settle.

d) Retail sales – to you – it tells you about your purchasing power, your spending habit, your saving habit, your confidence – you will know or feel these things when you see the word bonus, tax (cut/raise) etc.

e) Employment – to you – well, I guess you’re smart enough to figure this one out. Only two quick tips (out of many) – VSS and unemployed graduates.

The hidden ones are political stability (which you’re also smart enough to know) or 'that look' the traders are giving you when you ask for discounts!