DISCLAIMER - NIKZAFRI.BLOGSPOT.COM
In no event shall nikzafri.blogspot.com be liable for any damages whatsoever, including, without limitation, direct, special, indirect, consequential, or incidental damages, or damages for lost profits, loss of revenue, or loss of use, arising out of or related to the nikzafri.blogspot.com or the information contained in it, whether such damages arise in contract, negligence, tort, under statute, in equity, at law or otherwise.
BIODATA - NIK ZAFRI
Kelantanese, Alumni of Sultan Ismail College Kelantan (SICA), IT Competency Cert, Certified Written English Professional US. Has participated in many seminars/conferences (local/ international) in the capacity of trainer/lecturer and participant.
Affiliations :- Network Member of Gerson Lehrman Group, Institute of Quality Malaysia, Auditor ISO 9000 IRCAUK, Auditor OHSMS (SIRIM and STS) /EMS ISO 14000 and Construction Quality Assessment System CONQUAS, CIDB (Now BCA) Singapore),
* Possesses almost 30 years of experience/hands-on in the multi-modern management & technical disciplines (systems & methodologies) such as Knowledge Management (Hi-Impact Management/ICT Solutions), Quality (TQM/ISO), Safety Health Environment, Civil & Building (Construction), Manufacturing, Motivation & Team Building, HR, Marketing/Branding, Business Process Reengineering, Economy/Stock Market, Contracts/Project Management, Finance & Banking, etc. He was employed to international bluechips involving in national/international megaprojects such as Balfour Beatty Construction/Knight Piesold & Partners UK, MMI Insurance Group Australia, Hazama Corporation (Hazamagumi) Japan (with Mitsubishi Corporation, JA Jones US, MMCE and Ho-Hup) and Sunway Construction Berhad (The Sunway Group of Companies). Among major projects undertaken : Pergau Hydro Electric Project, KLCC Petronas Twin Towers, LRT Tunnelling, KLIA, Petronas Refineries Melaka, Putrajaya Government Complex, Sistem Lingkaran Lebuhraya Kajang (SILK), Mex Highway, KLIA1, KLIA2 etc. Once serviced SMPD Management Consultants as Associate Consultant cum Lecturer for Diploma in Management, Institute of Supervisory Management UK/SMPD JV. Currently – Associate/Visiting Consultants/Facilitators, Advisors for leading consulting firms (local and international) including project management. To name a few – Noma SWO Consult, Amiosh Resources, Timur West Consultant Sdn. Bhd., TIJ Consultants Group (Malaysia and Singapore) and many others.
* Ex-Resident Weekly Columnist of Utusan Malaysia (1995-1998) and have produced more than 100 articles related to ISO-9000– Management System and Documentation Models, TQM Strategic Management, Occupational Safety and Health (now OHSAS 18000) and Environmental Management Systems ISO 14000. His write-ups/experience has assisted many students/researchers alike in module developments based on competency or academics and completion of many theses. Once commended by the then Chief Secretary to the Government of Malaysia for his diligence in promoting and training the civil services (government sector) based on “Total Quality Management and Quality Management System ISO-9000 in Malaysian Civil Service – Paradigm Shift Scalar for Assessment System”
Among Nik Zafri’s clients : Adabi Consumer Industries Sdn. Bhd, (MRP II, Accounts/Credit Control) The HQ of Royal Customs and Excise Malaysia (ISO 9000), Veterinary Services Dept. Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), The Institution of Engineers Malaysia (Aspects of Project Management – KLCC construction), Corporate HQ of RHB (Peter Drucker's MBO/KRA), NEC Semiconductor - Klang Selangor (Productivity Management), Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia (ISO 9000), State Secretarial Office Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), Hidrological Department KL (ISO 9000), Asahi Kluang Johor(System Audit, Management/Supervisory Development), Tunku Mahmood (2) Primary School Kluang Johor (ISO 9000), Consortium PANZANA (HSSE 3rd Party Audit), Lecturer for Information Technology Training Centre (ITTC) – Authorised Training Center (ATC) – University of Technology Malaysia (UTM) Kluang Branch Johor, Kluang General Hospital Johor (Management/Supervision Development, Office Technology/Administration, ISO 9000 & Construction Management), Kahang Timur Secondary School Johor (ISO 9000), Sultan Abdul Jalil Secondary School Kluang Johor (Islamic Motivation and Team Building), Guocera Tiles Industries Kluang Johor (EMS ISO 14000), MNE Construction (M) Sdn. Bhd. Kota Tinggi Johor (ISO 9000 – Construction), UITM Shah Alam Selangor (Knowledge Management/Knowledge Based Economy /TQM), Telesystem Electronics/Digico Cable(ODM/OEM for Astro – ISO 9000), Sungai Long Industries Sdn. Bhd. (Bina Puri Group) - ISO 9000 Construction), Secura Security Printing Sdn. Bhd,(ISO 9000 – Security Printing) ROTOL AMS Bumi Sdn. Bhd & ROTOL Architectural Services Sdn. Bhd. (ROTOL Group) – ISO 9000 –Architecture, Bond M & E (KL) Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9000 – Construction/M & E), Skyline Telco (M) Sdn. Bhd. (Knowledge Management),Technochase Sdn. Bhd JB (ISO 9000 – Construction), Institut Kefahaman Islam Malaysia (IKIM – ISO 9000 & Internal Audit Refresher), Shinryo/Steamline Consortium (Petronas/OGP Power Co-Generation Plant Melaka – Construction Management and Safety, Health, Environment), Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Negotiation Skills), Association for Retired Intelligence Operatives of Malaysia (Cyber Security – Arpa/NSFUsenet, Cobit, Till, ISO/IEC ISMS 27000 for Law/Enforcement/Military), T.Yamaichi Corp. (M) Sdn. Bhd. (EMS ISO 14000) LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd., (Lean Scoreboard (including a full development of System-Software-Application - MSC Malaysia & Six Sigma) PJZ Marine Services Sdn. Bhd., (Safety Management Systems and Internal Audit based on International Marine Organization Standards) UNITAR/UNTEC (Degree in Accountacy – Career Path/Roadmap) Cobrain Holdings Sdn. Bhd.(Managing Construction Safety & Health), Speaker for International Finance & Management Strategy (Closed Conference), Pembinaan Jaya Zira Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9001:2008-Internal Audit for Construction Industry & Overview of version 2015), Straits Consulting Engineers Sdn. Bhd. (Full Integrated Management System – ISO 9000, OHSAS 18000 (ISO 45000) and EMS ISO 14000 for Civil/Structural/Geotechnical Consulting), Malaysia Management & Science University (MSU – (Managing Business in an Organization), Innoseven Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 MSPR8 – Awareness and Internal Audit (Construction), ISO 9001:2008 and 2015 overview for the Construction Industry), Kemakmuran Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 - Signages/Wayfinding - Project Quality Plan and Construction Method Statement ), Lembaga Tabung Haji - Flood ERP, WNA Consultants - DID/JPS -Flood Risk Assessment and Management Plan - Prelim, Conceptual Design, Interim and Final Report etc., Tunnel Fire Safety - Fire Risk Assessment Report - Design Fire Scenario), Safety, Health and Environmental Management Plans leading construction/property companies/corporations in Malaysia, Timur West Consultant : Business Methodology and System, Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) ISO/IEC 27001:2013 for Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya ISMS/Audit/Risk/ITP Technical Team, MPDT Capital Berhad - ISO 9001: 2015 - Consultancy, Construction, Project Rehabilitation, Desalination (first one in Malaysia to receive certification on trades such as Reverse Osmosis Seawater Desalination and Project Recovery/Rehabilitation)
* Has appeared for 10 consecutive series in “Good Morning Malaysia RTM TV1’ Corporate Talk Segment discussing on ISO 9000/14000 in various industries. For ICT, his inputs garnered from his expertise have successfully led to development of work-process e-enabling systems in the environments of intranet, portal and interactive web design especially for the construction and manufacturing. Some of the end products have won various competitions of innovativeness, quality, continual-improvements and construction industry award at national level. He has also in advisory capacity – involved in development and moderation of websites, portals and e-profiles for mainly corporate and private sectors, public figures etc. He is also one of the recipients for MOSTE Innovation for RFID use in Electronic Toll Collection in Malaysia.
Note :
Wednesday, December 02, 2015
PSIKOLOGI DAGANGAN FOREX
Saturday, August 15, 2015
MY COMMENTS ON MIT SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW - NIK ZAFRI
(Commenting on one of the research published in MIT Sloan - Designing Effective Knowledge Networks)
The article is a nice complement to modules of Hi-Impact Network that I’m currently conducting. I hope that everyone in the Artificial Intelligence industry should be reading this article. It a true representation of state of the art combination of ‘management and technical’.
But the part where :
“We found that good leaders were role models, inspiring members to act, and they did not delegate work such as being online and responding to discussions. They were routinely visible — as a cohesive team — to the community”
Sounds ‘a lil bit’ rethorical (and yes, good leaders do all that)
Unfortunately I still see leaders thinking like typical managers -yet ‘hijacking’ the word leader. More system than functional.
This conventional approach is now loosing its glory as it tends to create fear rather than respect. Even when this ‘leader’ is visible, it looks like ‘checking, inspecting and auditing’ when making rounds. The ‘visibility’ is too frequent which may be misinterpreted as a signal of mistrust.
Congratulations.
Nik Zafri
--------------------------------------------
But when you really analyze it (I mean really…), you’ll find that there is never an accurate equilibrium in the curves of supply and demand.
This is because, the scenario depends mostly on what type of products and services that you’re selling. If you talk about controlled items, then you can easily relate to controlled raw materials.
Now, here you can’t use the conventional supply and demand as it won’t work!
What should be highlighted is about Knowledge-Based Economy and total reduction of Productivity-Based Economy.
Now, quoting Peter Drucker Chapter 12 in his book The Age of Discontinuity – (which he has said this quite some time ago – the idea of “scientific management” developed by Taylor/Mashlup.
There is; on the other hand; productivity but it is recommended not to be mixed up together as the sole indicator for supply and demand.
There is a lot of justifications needed (which require true factual knowledge and information) to be made even in the laymen term rather than depending merely on the curves.
Thus, the information age will be ready to go for the next wave, Rules, practices needed rewriting in an interconnected, globalized economy where knowledge resources such as trade secrets and expertise are as critical as other economic resources.
Nik Zafri Abdul Majid
Saturday, January 17, 2015
Tuesday, September 02, 2014
Kawalan Emosi dan Psikologi Pelabur dalam Meramal Pasaran Saham – NIK ZAFRI
Kita sering melihat rancangan, segmen berita, wawancara dan lain-lain yang memaparkan perangkaan yang menunjukkan pembetulan dalam pasaran (market correction) tetapi adakah ini satu perkara yang penting perlu kita ketahui?
- Peperangan (terutamanya peperangan yang berlaku secara mengejut)
- kesan asimetrik yang berasal dari luar negara (negara yang dipanggil ‘negara maju’) yang mengalami hutang negara yang sangat besar atau kadar faedah Rizab Persekutuan menjadi terlalu tinggi)
- kadar pengangguran yang sangat tinggi (tandanya : apabila pembayaran gratuiti atau bonus pada 2-3 bulan sebelumnya ‘terlalu tinggi’)
- kenaikan sumber tenaga secara mendadak, seperti petroleum dan diesel (minyak mentah termasuk minyak tanah) - apa yang ganjil ialah fenomena ini diikuti dengan kenaikan bahanapi yang lain seperti arangbatu, hidro dll TERMASUK alternatif seperti minyak sawit dan tenaga solar (saya pun hairan kenapa? - tetapi saya seperti bersedia untuk menghadapi suasana berkenaan)
- kenaikan harga barang makanan secara tiba-tiba, (tidak semestinya kenaikan barangan terkawal seperti gula dan minyak masak sahaja)
- kenaikan kos sara hidup (Contohnya kenaikan nilai hartanah selaras dengan kedatangan pelabur asing)
- nilai projek contohnya pembinaan yang dijalankan terlalu tinggi dari kebiasaan (mungkin pelabur terkejut, jika saya katakan bahawa, nilai projek yang tinggi BUKAN disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga bahan binaan tetapi kerana faktor dalaman seperti pembaziran, kerosakan yang tinggi tanpa kawalan, kemalangan di tempat kerja dan juga rasuah!)
Tuesday, July 01, 2014
MALAYSIAN ECONOMIC MONITOR - WORLD BANK
Saturday, February 15, 2014
KENANGAN 1997 - KERUGIAN KONTRA DAN 'SHORT-SELLING' - OLEH NIK ZAFRI
* Senario ini adalah contoh - bayangkan kerugian yang saya alami jika dikalikan dengan membeli 20 lot (malah lebih dari itu)
Juga amat penting kita melihat apa yang berlaku di luar negara, contohnya; walaupun sudah terdapat internet ketika itu - namun penggunaannya agak terhad sedikit berbanding masakini; saya telah mendengar kisah di internet, rakan-rakan pelabur memaklumkan sedang berlaku trend "jualan pendek" (Short Selling) secara besar-besaran hasil permainan spekulator bagi pelabur mendapat keuntungan dari harga yang sedang jatuh bagi saham yang harganya berada pada paras yang luarbiasa tingginya. Ketika itu 'saham AA' ditinggikan nilainya (overvalue) pada (contohnya) 25 pound (yang pastinya akan jatuh harganya) - kemudian ianya dijual pada harga 25 pound walaupun pelabur tidak memiliki sebaran unit saham AA. Apabila saham AA jatuh ke harga 20 pound, pelabur telah membeli stok berkenaan bagi menyelesaikan dagagannya dan mendapat keuntungan 5 pound sesaham. Bezanya apabila harga saham AA melambung ke 30 pound, pelabur telah kerugian 5 pound sesaham bagi membeli saham AA untuk menyelesaikan tanggungjawab dagangannya.
Namun, kerugian kontra saya ketika itu terlalu besar menyebabkan habis semua aset saya terpaksa saya jual. Ramai juga pelabur-pelabur (kebanyakannya rakan-rakan saya) yang menjadi hampir 'mereng' disebabkan situasi ini. Sehingga kini, saya masih belum dapat pulih sepenuhnya walaupun keadaan kewangan saya semakin stabil.
Apa yang saya lihat hari ini, kita perlu bersedia dengan kemungkinan menangkis 'serangan cara lain dan halus' ke atas ekonomi negara. Cabaran yang bakal kita hadapi sangat berbeza dengan cabaran yang saya hadapi pada tahun 1997.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
World Bank to Support South-South Knowledge Exchange on Higher Education Reforms
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
PERLAKUAN PASARAN SAHAM HUBUNGKAIT ANTARA BERITA DAN AKTIVITI PASARAN
Nota Ringkas
Ada banyak yang masih perlu difahami oleh pelabur.
a) Pasaran menggambarkan berita yang AKAN berlaku dan bukannya yang TELAH berlaku walaupun berita boleh datang dengan MENGEJUT sekalipun. Penganalis yang bijak akan melihat kepada 'apa kesan berita berkenaan terhadap pasaran SELEPAS ianya diproses'?
b) Kadangkala pasaran memberikan tindakbalas terhadap data atau berita. Ada juga berita dan data bertindakbalas berdasarkan pasaran.
Yang mana datang terlebih dahulu? Saya ingin menjelaskan mengenai korelasi antara semua jenis data dan peristiwa yang berlaku selepas langkah-langkah penting diambil oleh pasaran.
Contohnya peperangan, ramai yang menyangka bahawa pasaran akan menjadi teruk atau jatuh. Ini hanyalah reaksi psikologi bagi mereka yang tidak tahu bagaimana pasaran memproses maklumat berkenaan.
Dan keadaan ini diburukkan lagi apabila manusia menyangka mereka akan kehilangan kerja, keluarga, pendapatan, jatuh miskin terutamanya jika mendengar pelabur sendiri yang mengeluarkan kenyataan berkenaan.
Samalah juga serangan 11 September, jika dilihat ketika itu, kepanikan banyak berlaku tetapi ke mana perginya rasa panik berkenaan masakini? Lihat dulu bagaimana pasaran memberikan reaksi kemudiannya. Sememang dijangkakan, ramai yang menyangka ekonomi dunia akan jadi parah walhal ketika itu, semua data-data telah ada 'backupnya' dan masih beroperasi seperti biasa sehingga kini?
Kita juga pernah mendengar terdapat gempabumi atau tsunami di Jepun, ada kepanikan berlaku.
Cuba lihat pasaran ketika itu, adakah ianya memberikan reaksi yang teruk?
Jawapannya 'TIDAK'.
Ianya mungkin memberikan kesan sementara kepada sekitarnya (ASEAN) kecuali tempat berlakunya bencana alam berkenaan (Jepun)
Namun, fenomena ini juga membuka peluang kepada pelabur-pelabur berskala besar untuk membeli saham-saham yang dijual murah disebabkan 'selling pressure'. Akhirnya, apabila pasaran kembali pulih, tiba-tiba saham yang dibeli murah itu naik berkali ganda.
Apa yang penting ialah bagaimana pasaran mengendali dan memproses maklumat berkenaan.
Kata Kunci di sini (dalam konteks pasaran saham) ialah 'Jangan Panik' kerana 'panik' boleh membuka jalan kepada spekulator.
Pada tahun 2001, ketika itu pasaran sedang riuh kerana kejatuhan saham dotcom.
Pada tahun 2003, US telah menyerang Iraq. Semasa itu, pasaran saham di US jatuh hampir 50%.
Percayakah anda :
Pasaran 'bear' menyebabkan kejatuhan dalam kadar kelahiran.
Kita lihat, ramai yang masih memberikan reaksi psikologi yang negatif dan menyangka kejatuhan dalam pasaran saham akan menyebabkan mereka akan hilang kuasa kewangan - jadi mereka perlu merancang keluarga mereka?
Namun, pasaran 'bull' pula menaikkan pula kadar kelahiran. Pelik tapi benar.
Kerana pasaran yang digambarkan sebagai 'bullish' akan meningkatkan lagi jangkaan pelabur bahawa mereka akan membuat untung.
Suasana ini berlaku di US dan kini 'berjangkit' ke serata dunia.
Ini menyebabkan ramai yang melihat apa yang berlaku sebelumnya dan bukan apa yang sedang berlaku. Setiap kali ada berita kejatuhan dunia sebelum ini, pasaran telah mengambil segala langkah untuk memastikan jika ianya berlaku sekali lagi, pasaran dapat memproses maklumat itu dengan lebih matang dan mencari 'kusyen' untuk 'jatuh'.
Jadi kadangkala kita tidak boleh terlalu bergantung kepada kisah lama seperti 'Great Depression' dan 'Big Bubble'.
Tahun 2008 menyaksikan banyak sektor korporat telah mendapat kesan hasil daripada krisis kewangan. Malah ramai 'peramal-peramal' menyatakan, akan berlaku kemelesetan yang teruk. Pemimpin peringkat negara, masyarakat, dunia dsb. pula menganggap 'politik' tidak membantu. Akhirnya apa yang disebut berlaku kemelesetan, tidak berlaku sehingga kini.
Saya bertanya sahabat di U.S., sekiranya 'trading' adalah 1,050, S & P 500 jatuh 16.1%, adakah ini bermakna akan berlaku 'double dip recession'?
Benar, index mungkin jatuh tetapi trend menunjukkan ianya akan bertahan pada satu tahap dan akhirnya naik kembali pada masa-masa yang akan datang.
Kesimpulannya, pasaranlah yang mencetuskan suasana ekonomi masa hadapan dan bukannya berita (atau khabar) semata-mata.
Lain kali, jika ada pergerakan pasaran saham ke suatu arah tertentu, jangan bertanya "apa yang telah berlaku yang menyebabkan pergerakan berkenaan?" tetapi tanyalah "apa gambaran yang cuba dilakukan oleh pasaran mengenai 'apa yang akan berlaku?' supaya kita boleh mengambil langkah berjaga-jaga.
Jangkapanjang sebenarnya lebih baik dari Jangkapendek.