As we move toward 2026, the global economy is entering a phase of fragmented growth, increasingly shaped by geopolitics, peace, and conflict.
PROJECTION (not a prediction)
a) Local: SMEs and domestic infrastructure will matter more than export-led narratives. Stocks linked to utilities, construction, logistics, and essential services show more resilience than speculative growth counters,
b) ASEAN: Supply chain realignment, energy transition, and food security will drive selective growth, not broad booms. Even regional tensions can affect logistics, tourism, and investor confidence. Equity markets favour domestic consumption, infrastructure, energy transition, and food security over export-heavy plays.
c) Global: Capital will be cautious. Conflicts such as Ukraine and Gaza continue to distort energy prices, shipping routes, insurance costs, and fiscal priorities, pricing risk faster than fundamentals. Stock market - remain volatile and selective. Valuations are increasingly driven by geopolitics, interest rates, and energy risks rather than pure earnings growth.
WHAT AM I WATCHING NOW
a) Public debt servicing vs development spending
b) Real FDI quality (jobs, technology transfer not headlines)
c) Energy, logistics, water, and food as strategic assets
The next few years won’t reward speed.
They’ll reward resilience, clarity, execution and stability.
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