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BIODATA - NIK ZAFRI


 



NIK ZAFRI BIN ABDUL MAJID,
CONSULTANT/TRAINER
Email: nikzafri@yahoo.com, nikzafri@gmail.com
https://nikzafri.wixsite.com/nikzafri

Kelantanese, Alumni of Sultan Ismail College Kelantan (SICA), IT Competency Cert, Certified Written English Professional US. Has participated in many seminars/conferences (local/ international) in the capacity of trainer/lecturer and participant.

Affiliations :- Network Member of Gerson Lehrman Group, Institute of Quality Malaysia, Auditor ISO 9000 IRCAUK, Auditor OHSMS (SIRIM and STS) /EMS ISO 14000 and Construction Quality Assessment System CONQUAS, CIDB (Now BCA) Singapore),

* Possesses almost 30 years of experience/hands-on in the multi-modern management & technical disciplines (systems & methodologies) such as Knowledge Management (Hi-Impact Management/ICT Solutions), Quality (TQM/ISO), Safety Health Environment, Civil & Building (Construction), Manufacturing, Motivation & Team Building, HR, Marketing/Branding, Business Process Reengineering, Economy/Stock Market, Contracts/Project Management, Finance & Banking, etc. He was employed to international bluechips involving in national/international megaprojects such as Balfour Beatty Construction/Knight Piesold & Partners UK, MMI Insurance Group Australia, Hazama Corporation (Hazamagumi) Japan (with Mitsubishi Corporation, JA Jones US, MMCE and Ho-Hup) and Sunway Construction Berhad (The Sunway Group of Companies). Among major projects undertaken : Pergau Hydro Electric Project, KLCC Petronas Twin Towers, LRT Tunnelling, KLIA, Petronas Refineries Melaka, Putrajaya Government Complex, Sistem Lingkaran Lebuhraya Kajang (SILK), Mex Highway, KLIA1, KLIA2 etc. Once serviced SMPD Management Consultants as Associate Consultant cum Lecturer for Diploma in Management, Institute of Supervisory Management UK/SMPD JV. Currently – Associate/Visiting Consultants/Facilitators, Advisors for leading consulting firms (local and international) including project management. To name a few – Noma SWO Consult, Amiosh Resources, Timur West Consultant Sdn. Bhd., TIJ Consultants Group (Malaysia and Singapore) and many others.

* Ex-Resident Weekly Columnist of Utusan Malaysia (1995-1998) and have produced more than 100 articles related to ISO-9000– Management System and Documentation Models, TQM Strategic Management, Occupational Safety and Health (now OHSAS 18000) and Environmental Management Systems ISO 14000. His write-ups/experience has assisted many students/researchers alike in module developments based on competency or academics and completion of many theses. Once commended by the then Chief Secretary to the Government of Malaysia for his diligence in promoting and training the civil services (government sector) based on “Total Quality Management and Quality Management System ISO-9000 in Malaysian Civil Service – Paradigm Shift Scalar for Assessment System”

Among Nik Zafri’s clients : Adabi Consumer Industries Sdn. Bhd, (MRP II, Accounts/Credit Control) The HQ of Royal Customs and Excise Malaysia (ISO 9000), Veterinary Services Dept. Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), The Institution of Engineers Malaysia (Aspects of Project Management – KLCC construction), Corporate HQ of RHB (Peter Drucker's MBO/KRA), NEC Semiconductor - Klang Selangor (Productivity Management), Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia (ISO 9000), State Secretarial Office Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), Hidrological Department KL (ISO 9000), Asahi Kluang Johor(System Audit, Management/Supervisory Development), Tunku Mahmood (2) Primary School Kluang Johor (ISO 9000), Consortium PANZANA (HSSE 3rd Party Audit), Lecturer for Information Technology Training Centre (ITTC) – Authorised Training Center (ATC) – University of Technology Malaysia (UTM) Kluang Branch Johor, Kluang General Hospital Johor (Management/Supervision Development, Office Technology/Administration, ISO 9000 & Construction Management), Kahang Timur Secondary School Johor (ISO 9000), Sultan Abdul Jalil Secondary School Kluang Johor (Islamic Motivation and Team Building), Guocera Tiles Industries Kluang Johor (EMS ISO 14000), MNE Construction (M) Sdn. Bhd. Kota Tinggi Johor (ISO 9000 – Construction), UITM Shah Alam Selangor (Knowledge Management/Knowledge Based Economy /TQM), Telesystem Electronics/Digico Cable(ODM/OEM for Astro – ISO 9000), Sungai Long Industries Sdn. Bhd. (Bina Puri Group) - ISO 9000 Construction), Secura Security Printing Sdn. Bhd,(ISO 9000 – Security Printing) ROTOL AMS Bumi Sdn. Bhd & ROTOL Architectural Services Sdn. Bhd. (ROTOL Group) – ISO 9000 –Architecture, Bond M & E (KL) Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9000 – Construction/M & E), Skyline Telco (M) Sdn. Bhd. (Knowledge Management),Technochase Sdn. Bhd JB (ISO 9000 – Construction), Institut Kefahaman Islam Malaysia (IKIM – ISO 9000 & Internal Audit Refresher), Shinryo/Steamline Consortium (Petronas/OGP Power Co-Generation Plant Melaka – Construction Management and Safety, Health, Environment), Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Negotiation Skills), Association for Retired Intelligence Operatives of Malaysia (Cyber Security – Arpa/NSFUsenet, Cobit, Till, ISO/IEC ISMS 27000 for Law/Enforcement/Military), T.Yamaichi Corp. (M) Sdn. Bhd. (EMS ISO 14000) LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd., (Lean Scoreboard (including a full development of System-Software-Application - MSC Malaysia & Six Sigma) PJZ Marine Services Sdn. Bhd., (Safety Management Systems and Internal Audit based on International Marine Organization Standards) UNITAR/UNTEC (Degree in Accountacy – Career Path/Roadmap) Cobrain Holdings Sdn. Bhd.(Managing Construction Safety & Health), Speaker for International Finance & Management Strategy (Closed Conference), Pembinaan Jaya Zira Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9001:2008-Internal Audit for Construction Industry & Overview of version 2015), Straits Consulting Engineers Sdn. Bhd. (Full Integrated Management System – ISO 9000, OHSAS 18000 (ISO 45000) and EMS ISO 14000 for Civil/Structural/Geotechnical Consulting), Malaysia Management & Science University (MSU – (Managing Business in an Organization), Innoseven Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 MSPR8 – Awareness and Internal Audit (Construction), ISO 9001:2008 and 2015 overview for the Construction Industry), Kemakmuran Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 - Signages/Wayfinding - Project Quality Plan and Construction Method Statement ), Lembaga Tabung Haji - Flood ERP, WNA Consultants - DID/JPS -Flood Risk Assessment and Management Plan - Prelim, Conceptual Design, Interim and Final Report etc., Tunnel Fire Safety - Fire Risk Assessment Report - Design Fire Scenario), Safety, Health and Environmental Management Plans leading construction/property companies/corporations in Malaysia, Timur West Consultant : Business Methodology and System, Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) ISO/IEC 27001:2013 for Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya ISMS/Audit/Risk/ITP Technical Team, MPDT Capital Berhad - ISO 9001: 2015 - Consultancy, Construction, Project Rehabilitation, Desalination (first one in Malaysia to receive certification on trades such as Reverse Osmosis Seawater Desalination and Project Recovery/Rehabilitation)

* Has appeared for 10 consecutive series in “Good Morning Malaysia RTM TV1’ Corporate Talk Segment discussing on ISO 9000/14000 in various industries. For ICT, his inputs garnered from his expertise have successfully led to development of work-process e-enabling systems in the environments of intranet, portal and interactive web design especially for the construction and manufacturing. Some of the end products have won various competitions of innovativeness, quality, continual-improvements and construction industry award at national level. He has also in advisory capacity – involved in development and moderation of websites, portals and e-profiles for mainly corporate and private sectors, public figures etc. He is also one of the recipients for MOSTE Innovation for RFID use in Electronic Toll Collection in Malaysia.

Note :


TO SEE ALL ARTICLES

ON THE"LABEL" SECTION BELOW (RIGHT SIDE COLUMN), YOU CAN CLICK ON ANY TAG - TO READ ALL ARTICLES ACCORDING TO ITS CATEGORY (E.G. LABEL : CONSTRUCTION) OR GO TO THE VERY END OF THIS BLOG AND CLICK "Older Posts"


 

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

World Bank to Support South-South Knowledge Exchange on Higher Education Reforms

PRESS RELEASE
May 20, 2013

Kuala Lumpur, May 20, 2013 – Officials from Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia working on higher education reform will exchange experiences with Malaysian counterparts at a 4-day workshop beginning today, supported by the World Bank and the British Council Malaysia. The event is part of the Bank’s ongoing effort to encourage countries across regions to learn from each other to find innovative solutions.

“The final goals of higher education are much the same across countries,” said Annette Dixon, Country Director for the World Bank in Malaysia. “We hope our support to bring policy-makers, members of academia and advocates from Malaysia, Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia together will enable them to learn from each other and explore new ideas that will help improve the quality of higher education in their countries.”

Malaysia acted early to take on many key reforms in its higher education system including the establishment of the Quality Assurance System in the 1990s. Algeria, Morocco and Tunsia will share their experience in improving institutional autonomy and accountability measures for universities.

“Policy-makers from developing countries are learning about how Malaysia successfully implemented key reforms in higher education.  The recent development on institutional reform, which focuses on granting key research universities more autonomy, together with much strengthened accountability, is of particular interest to them,” said Dandan Chen, World Bank Senior Economist. 

The 15-member visiting delegation is meeting with Malaysia’s Ministry of Higher Education and other government agencies to discuss issues such as higher education accreditation, quality assurance, and strengthening governance in universities and colleges. They are also visiting selected public and private universities and colleges to exchange lessons drawn from institutional reforms.

This knowledge event is funded by the Bank’s “South-South Experience Exchange Facility,” which was established in October 2008 to support global knowledge exchange projects that draw directly upon the expertise of developing countries and provides a platform for countries to share lessons.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

PERLAKUAN PASARAN SAHAM HUBUNGKAIT ANTARA BERITA DAN AKTIVITI PASARAN


Nota Ringkas


Ada banyak yang masih perlu difahami oleh pelabur.

a) Pasaran menggambarkan berita yang AKAN berlaku dan bukannya yang TELAH berlaku walaupun berita boleh datang dengan MENGEJUT sekalipun. Penganalis yang bijak akan melihat kepada 'apa kesan berita berkenaan terhadap pasaran SELEPAS ianya diproses'?

b) Kadangkala pasaran memberikan tindakbalas terhadap data atau berita. Ada juga berita dan data bertindakbalas berdasarkan pasaran.

Yang mana datang terlebih dahulu? Saya ingin menjelaskan mengenai korelasi antara semua jenis data dan peristiwa yang berlaku selepas langkah-langkah penting diambil oleh pasaran.

Contohnya peperangan, ramai yang menyangka bahawa pasaran akan menjadi teruk atau jatuh. Ini hanyalah reaksi psikologi bagi mereka yang tidak tahu bagaimana pasaran memproses maklumat berkenaan. 

Dan keadaan ini diburukkan lagi apabila manusia menyangka mereka akan kehilangan kerja, keluarga, pendapatan, jatuh miskin terutamanya jika mendengar pelabur sendiri yang mengeluarkan kenyataan berkenaan.

Samalah juga serangan 11 September, jika dilihat ketika itu, kepanikan banyak berlaku tetapi ke mana perginya rasa panik berkenaan masakini? Lihat dulu bagaimana pasaran memberikan reaksi kemudiannya. Sememang dijangkakan, ramai yang menyangka ekonomi dunia akan jadi parah walhal ketika itu, semua data-data telah ada 'backupnya' dan masih beroperasi seperti biasa sehingga kini?

Kita juga pernah mendengar terdapat gempabumi atau tsunami di Jepun, ada kepanikan berlaku. 

Cuba lihat pasaran ketika itu, adakah ianya memberikan reaksi yang teruk? 

Jawapannya 'TIDAK'. 

Ianya mungkin memberikan kesan sementara kepada sekitarnya (ASEAN) kecuali tempat berlakunya bencana alam berkenaan (Jepun) 

Namun, fenomena ini juga membuka peluang kepada pelabur-pelabur berskala besar untuk membeli saham-saham yang dijual murah disebabkan 'selling pressure'. Akhirnya, apabila pasaran kembali pulih, tiba-tiba saham yang dibeli murah itu naik berkali ganda.

Apa yang penting ialah bagaimana pasaran mengendali dan memproses maklumat berkenaan. 

Kata Kunci di sini (dalam konteks pasaran saham) ialah 'Jangan Panik' kerana 'panik' boleh membuka jalan kepada spekulator.

Pada tahun 2001, ketika itu pasaran sedang riuh kerana kejatuhan saham dotcom. 

Pada tahun 2003, US telah menyerang Iraq. Semasa itu, pasaran saham di US jatuh hampir 50%.

Percayakah anda : 

Pasaran 'bear' menyebabkan kejatuhan dalam kadar kelahiran.

Kita lihat, ramai yang masih memberikan reaksi psikologi yang negatif dan menyangka kejatuhan dalam pasaran saham akan menyebabkan mereka akan hilang kuasa kewangan - jadi mereka perlu merancang keluarga mereka?

Namun, pasaran 'bull' pula menaikkan pula kadar kelahiran. Pelik tapi benar. 

Kerana pasaran yang digambarkan sebagai 'bullish' akan meningkatkan lagi jangkaan pelabur bahawa mereka akan membuat untung.

Suasana ini berlaku di US dan kini 'berjangkit' ke serata dunia.

Ini menyebabkan ramai yang melihat apa yang berlaku sebelumnya dan bukan apa yang sedang berlaku. Setiap kali ada berita kejatuhan dunia sebelum ini, pasaran telah mengambil segala langkah untuk memastikan jika ianya berlaku sekali lagi, pasaran dapat memproses maklumat itu dengan lebih matang dan mencari 'kusyen' untuk 'jatuh'.

Jadi kadangkala kita tidak boleh terlalu bergantung kepada kisah lama seperti 'Great Depression' dan 'Big Bubble'.

Tahun 2008 menyaksikan banyak sektor korporat telah mendapat kesan hasil daripada krisis kewangan. Malah ramai 'peramal-peramal' menyatakan, akan berlaku kemelesetan yang teruk. Pemimpin peringkat negara, masyarakat, dunia dsb. pula menganggap 'politik' tidak membantu. Akhirnya apa yang disebut berlaku kemelesetan, tidak berlaku sehingga kini.

Saya bertanya sahabat di U.S., sekiranya 'trading' adalah 1,050, S & P 500 jatuh 16.1%, adakah ini bermakna akan berlaku 'double dip recession'? 

Benar, index mungkin jatuh tetapi trend menunjukkan ianya akan bertahan pada satu tahap dan akhirnya naik kembali pada masa-masa yang akan datang.

Kesimpulannya, pasaranlah yang mencetuskan suasana ekonomi masa hadapan dan bukannya berita (atau khabar) semata-mata.

Lain kali, jika ada pergerakan pasaran saham ke suatu arah tertentu, jangan bertanya "apa yang telah berlaku yang menyebabkan pergerakan berkenaan?" tetapi tanyalah "apa gambaran yang cuba dilakukan oleh pasaran mengenai 'apa yang akan berlaku?' supaya kita boleh mengambil langkah berjaga-jaga.

Jangkapanjang sebenarnya lebih baik dari Jangkapendek.

Monday, March 25, 2013

QUICKEY



Greetings. 

To those who might want to know more about the Share Investment Centre (Maybank Investment), please visit http://www.maybank2u.com.my

What interest me is the HOT Broking Programme introduced by Maybank Investment for newbie (bumiputera especially) but potential investors to be part of the retail market by investing into selected syariah counters.

But before investors decide to invest, they must first get the Yellow Form or Acknowledgement of Receipt from Ministry of Trade and Industry (MITI) and definitely there are rules to be followed for both category - individual or company (in most cases Private Limited - Sdn. Bhd.)

I do 'hear' few proposals as well but I do not know how true they are : 

a) To open up eligibility of Bumiputera to invest also for enterprise/partnership entities as well. (I notice in one IPO notice from Maybank Investment indicating 'enterprise entities' are eligible but MITI; I think clearly mentioned that it is for "Sdn. Bhd." )

If this is true (that enterprise/sole prop can apply for Bumi shares) then it is a good thing to do but there may be additional requirements to ensure that 'enterprise' (sole prop) entities have audited accounts (which is the same in the partnership - pursuant to Partnership act - but any act never mention a sole prop should also have audited accounts. The problem is because some of their clients require the supplier to have audited accounts but the supplier is only an enterprise entity which by law do not require audited accounts - perhaps an income statement )

b) Liberalization of retail market (syariah counters) branching out to Singapore, Brunei and Indonesia.

Alas, this is only my personal opinion - nothing to do with ROS/SSM, Maybank or MITI. Please contact the right authorities for further information.

Saturday, March 23, 2013

THE PASSWORD MANAGEMENT GUIDE

itmanagement-whitepapers.tradepub.com


By Mohammed Al-Marhoon
https://www.facebook.com/almarhoon1

This manual is the intellectual property of MakeUseOf. It must only be published in its original form. Using
parts or republishing altered parts of this guide is prohibited without permission from MakeUseOf.com















Thursday, December 20, 2012

Malaysia Continues to Improve in Ease of Doing Business


WORLD BANK
October 23, 2012
PRESS RELEASE


Kuala Lumpur, October 23, 2012—A new report from IFC and the World Bank finds that Malaysia remains among the world’s most business-friendly countries.

Released today, Doing Business 2013: Smarter Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises  notes that Malaysia made dealing with construction permits faster by improving the one-stop center for new buildings and by reducing the time to connect to telephone services.

Malaysia is to be commended for its ongoing efforts to reduce the costs of doing business,” said Annette Dixon, World Bank Country Director for Malaysia.This will help the private sector drive growth, especially if Malaysia can build on its success by continuing to tackle long-term challenges, such as improving the quality of education.”

Malaysia also cut the number of days it takes to register property transfers by introducing a new caseload management system at the land registry. Inspired by effective supply chain management strategies employed by the private sector, the registry reduced registration time from 41 days in 2011 to 7 days in 2012 for non strata properties (those that are not part of a subdivision or common-interest community).

Malaysia continues to improve the quality of domestic regulations. This has great potential to energize the private sector when combined with stepped-up implementation of strategic reform initiatives, especially the liberalization of services sectors and the enforcement of the new competition law,” said Frederico Gil Sander, World Bank Senior Economist for Malaysia.

The Doing Business 2013 report, which covers the period from June 2011 to June 2012 and which uses data for indicators that measure regulation affecting 10 key areas of the life cycle of local businesses, finds that Singapore tops the global ranking on the ease of doing business for the seventh consecutive year, while Hong Kong SAR, China, holds onto the second spot.

The report finds that 23 economies in East Asia and the Pacific have made their regulatory environment more business-friendly since 2005. During that time, China made the greatest progress in improving business regulations for local entrepreneurs. The report also notes that 11 of 24 economies in East Asia and the Pacific improved business regulations in the past year.

Joining Singapore and Hong Kong SAR, China, on the list of the 10 economies with the most business-friendly regulations are, in this order, New Zealand; the United States; Denmark; Norway; the United Kingdom; the Republic of Korea; Georgia; and Australia.

About the Doing Business report series

Doing Business analyzes regulations that apply to an economy’s businesses during their life cycle, including start-up and operations, trading across borders, paying taxes, and protecting investors. The aggregate ease of doing business rankings are based on 10 indicators and cover 185 economies. Doing Business does not measure all aspects of the business environment that matter to firms and investors. For example, it does not measure the quality of fiscal management, other aspects of macroeconomic stability, the level of skills in the labor force, or the resilience of financial systems. Its findings have stimulated policy debates worldwide and enabled a growing body of research on how firm-level regulation relates to economic outcomes across economies. This year’s report marks the 10th edition of the global Doing Business report series.


DOWNLOAD THE 140 PAGES FULL REPORT HERE!!

Monday, October 01, 2012

URBANIZATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT


Dean Cira, Urban Expert, World Bank 


SUBMITTED BY HUONG LAN VU ON TUE, 2012-06-19 14:47

Urbanization itself cannot guarantee economic growth, but it does appear to be an inevitable process on the way to development: no country has achieved high income status without first urbanizing, and nearly all countries become at least 50% urbanized before fully reaching middle income status.

The trick is in how to manage this process in a way that plays up the benefits and minimizes the challenges it brings. 

When I was a little child, we lived in a 30m2 house in the suburbs of Hanoi, Vietnam, with intermittent supplies of power and clean water. But I enjoyed playing on the quiet and clean street in front of my house. Twenty years later, my whole neighborhood has been nicely renovated; there’s enough electricity to run all appliances in my house, including two air conditioners. But I get stuck in traffic every day on my way to work, and the smog is so thick I can hardly breathe, even with a mask on my face.

Urbanization has arrived to my hometown with both advantages and challenges. However, noises, heavy traffic, and air and water pollution are not unique to Hanoi. They can be observed in many cities in emerging countries all over the world (such as China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, or Nigeria). The Vietnam Urbanization Reviewnotes that if these challenges are well managed, they will allow cities like Hanoi to retain its unique charm and livability while enjoying the benefits that urbanization brings.    

------------------------------------------
URBANIZATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

SUBMITTED BY NIK ZAFRI ON WED, 2012-06-20 05:05.

Urbanization; to a certain degree; has always been an indicator to the level of success in the context of economics.I have no qualms against urbanization knowing the benefits of it such as infrastructures, job opportunity, healthcare, education, roads/highways, etc.


But nowadays urbanization can be a menace if not properly planned. No doubt proper town planning is always there for new plans of urbanization to incorporate elements of sustainable development - green building, environmental management systems, control of carbon emission etc. etc.


I'm talking about the current urbanized locations - as you've mentioned - traffic jams, uncontrolled pollution, bustling cities, social impacts such as crime, disunity as well.


I feel that the most important thing that the current urbanized location require is a mass awareness to be communicated to all of them using various tools such as the internet, the billboards, the conventional flyers/brochures/buntings etc, free seminars etc. to make them understand the significance of protecting the environment (to include contractors, developers etc.), have more unity-based activities rather than being in 'clans'/'groups', ice-breakings programs disregarding race/religious backgrounds etc.


Of course, everyone nowadays are talking about money and more money or having job opportunities or disliking certain political parties. For this, the mayors, the councillors, the authorities, the political parties, including people's representatives, religious representatives, associations etc. must come together to draw up a plan now!


Well, many would disagree with me but my intention making a call of unity and peace will always be there. If not here, elsewhere - till the day I die.

Saturday, July 14, 2012

INVESTMENT IN TURBULENT TIMES
(SJ Securities and European Credit Investment Bank Limited)
Bilik Kinabalu - Menara Hap Seng, Jalan P. Ramlee, Kuala Lumpur

- Quickie from Nik Zafri. Please sign up/'like' the 'Knowledge Management (FB) for more information.





Mr. Darren Tan, International Consultant on Precious Metal, Founder iBiz, 2010 recipient of Successful Entrepreneur (Platinum Catgory) & 2011 SME1 Asia Award (Emerging Award) representing European Credit Investment Bank Ltd.

Topic : Investing in Gold and Silver - also touching on investing opportunities - FOREX, Derivatives, Bonds, Futures etc. besides than latest outlook on Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis and Eurozone Crisis

This workshop is part of the Security Commission program to educate the public especially investors




Mr. Peter Lim, Dep. MD of SJ Securities - a very experienced and qualified investment guru
Topic : Investment in the Stock Market also touching on opportunities, capital and economics





My questions to the speakers are :

a) If the influx of foreign currency is too much to any country, is it good to consider pegging - as the pegged regime did provide a strong foundation for accumulating and improving the level of international reserve and balance of trade.

Mr. Peter Lim commented that it is possible to have some form of capital control measures if there is proof of too much influx.




My next question :

b) Why do world stock markets react and behave eratically towards Federal Reserve news, policy even rumours to hike interest rates?

Mr. Peter Lim (assisted by Darren Tan later) said that stock prices and even equity prices respond as they do to monetary policy or interest rates hike are really intriguing. Sometimes monetary policy affects stock values through its effects on real interest rates, expected future dividends, or expected future stock returns. It has something to do with relatively transitory movements in real interest rates induced by surprise policy actions. Mr. Peter Lim also said the scenario is related to inverse 'effects' usually providing the opposite performance to their benchmark.

(But he also stressed that I shouldn't be listening rumours too much)

c) The rest are questions during 'breaks' briefly about FOREX and painting 'rosy pictures' in the company stocks including opportunities of emerging markets. I really like the way Mr. Darren Tan said about how we do not want to loose and only targetting profit. I later told one of the investors that there is no business or accounting without Profit & Loss. There is no such thing as we give assurance to people that we're going to make lots and lots of profit with a warranty of no loss. The same goes to property/REIT, Forex, Stock Market, Gold, Silver etc. It's the balance between up-to-date information (the right source), right timing and the right stocks.

The best part is the conclusion - both Mr. Peter Lim and Darren splendidly prove one important point - you can still make money during 'ups' and 'downs' if you know how to.

Tuesday, July 10, 2012



NEW PRESIDENT OF THE WORLD BANK

Dr. Jim Yong Kim is the 12th president of the World Bank Group. He is chairman of the Bank’s Board of Executive Directors and president of a group of five interrelated organizations:

* The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)

* International Development Association (IDA)

* International Finance Corporation (IFC)

* Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA)

* International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID).

(ICSID operates as a secretariat whose secretary-general is selected by its governing Administrative Council every six years. The World Bank Group president is chairman of the Administrative Council.)

The Executive Vice Presidents of IFC and MIGA report to the President of the World Bank Group.

-------------------------------------------------------

Jim Yong Kim, M.D., Ph.D., became the 12th President of the World Bank Group on July 1, 2012.

A physician and anthropologist, Dr. Kim has dedicated himself to international development for more than two decades, helping to improve the lives of under-served populations worldwide. Dr. Kim comes to the Bank after serving as President of Dartmouth College, a pre-eminent center of higher education that consistently ranks among the top academic institutions in the United States. Dr. Kim is a co-founder of Partners In Health (PIH) and a former director of the HIV/AIDS Department at the World Health Organization (WHO).

As President of Dartmouth – an institution that comprises a liberal arts college and professional schools of medicine, engineering and business, as well as 19 graduate programs in the arts and sciences, a staff and faculty of 3,300, and a budget of $700 million – Dr. Kim earned praise for reducing a financial deficit without cutting any academic programs. Dr. Kim also founded the Dartmouth Center for Health Care Delivery Science, a multidisciplinary institute dedicated to developing new models of health care delivery and achieving better health outcomes at lower costs.

Before assuming the Dartmouth presidency, Dr. Kim held professorships and chaired departments at Harvard Medical School, the Harvard School of Public Health and Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston. He also served as director of Harvard’s François-Xavier Bagnoud Center for Health and Human Rights.

In 1987, Dr. Kim co-founded Partners In Health, a Boston-based non-profit organization now working in poor communities on 4 continents. Challenging previous conventional wisdom that drug-resistant tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS could not be treated in developing countries, PIH successfully tackled these diseases by integrating large-scale treatment programs into community-based primary care.

As Director of the World Health Organization’s HIV/AIDS Department, Dr. Kim led the ‘3 by 5’ initiative, the first-ever global goal for AIDS treatment, which sought to treat 3 million new HIV/AIDS patients in developing countries with antiretroviral drugs by 2005. Launched in September 2003, the ambitious program ultimately reached its goal by 2007.

Dr. Kim’s work has earned him wide recognition. He was awarded a MacArthur “Genius” Fellowship (2003), was named one of America’s “25 Best Leaders” by U.S. News & World Report (2005), and was selected as one of TIME magazine’s “100 Most Influential People in the World” (2006).

Born in 1959 in Seoul, South Korea, Dr. Kim moved with his family to the United States at the age of five and grew up in Muscatine, Iowa. Dr. Kim graduated with an A.B. magna cum laude from Brown University in 1982. He earned an M.D. from Harvard Medical School in 1991 and a Ph.D. in anthropology from Harvard University in 1993.

He is married to Dr. Younsook Lim, a pediatrician. The couple has two young sons.

-------------------------------

New World Bank president pledges support for poor

Associated Press, Washington | World | Tue, July 03 2012, 7:57 AM

Korean-American Jim Yong Kim has begun his new job as president of the World Bank, promising to immediately focus on helping poor countries navigate a fragile global economy.

Kim tells reporters the 187-nation development agency is in a strong financial position to help poor countries respond to slowing growth and uncertainty from the debt crisis in Europe.

Kim was a surprise nominee of President Barack Obama. He succeeds Robert Zoellick.

Barack Obama (R) makes a point about Dartmouth College president Jim Yong Kim (L) as he introduces him as his nominee to be the next president of the World Bank, during an announcement in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, March 23, 2012. (Pic : Jonathan Ernst / Reuters)

Developing nations waged an unsuccessful challenge to Kim, a physician and pioneer in treating HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis in the developing world. They think the U.S. should not automatically get to decide who leads the organization.

Kim says he will discuss with the board issues raised by developing countries about the institution's structure.

-----------------------------

"We recognize that for the first time in the history of the World Bank there was an open process for the selection of the President that involved a debate on the priorities and the future of the institution.Future selection processes must build on this process, but must be transparent and truly merit-based." (G24 Group/Communique)

Tuesday, June 05, 2012

AMALAN PENGURUSAN DAN PERNIAGAAN ISLAM YANG TERBAIK
(Panduan Keusahawanan Khalaf)

Baru-baru ini ada permintaan dari beberapa penerbit di Malaysia yang telah menghubungi saya setelah melihat manuskrip yang pertama dan telah menyuarakan hasrat meminta saya menulis buku yang telah lama saya pendam pengeluarannya iaitu mengenai amalan pengurusan dan perniagaan Islam terbaik (best Islamic Management and Business Services) pada zaman (khalaf) ini.

Walaupun telah banyak bahan yang dipaparkan mengenai topik yang sama, namun terdapat perbezaan ketara dalam apa yang bakal saya keluarkan nanti.Buku atau panduan ini dijangka akan menjadi petunjuk alternatif yang juga dapat diharmonikan dengan semua standard/piawaian halal dan pengurusan Islam termasuk perbankan Islam di Malaysia.

Berikut adalah petikan dari muka hadapan buku berkenaan yang ditulis bersama oleh Encik Md Sukri :


DARI MEJA PENGARANG

Alhamdulillah, setelah menjalankan kajian lebih dua dekad, akhirnya terhasil juga buku ini sebagai salah satu wadah perjuangan kami untuk mencapai hasrat menjana ekonomi ummah pada zaman khalaf.

Kini umat Melayu Islam sedunia hari ini masih mencari-cari satu kaedah pengurusan dan perniagaan Islamik untuk disesuaikan pada zaman khalaf.

Penggunaan perkataan "Islamik" menggambarkan bahawa isi kandungan ciri-ciri ini telah diterapkan dengan nilai-nilai Islam.

Ini berlaku kerana terlalu banyak input dari pelbagai kajian Islamik yang perlu diproses namun, untuk menganalisa data-data yang banyak ini bagi tujuan mengaturnya kembali bagi memudahkan kefahaman bukanlah semudah yang disangkakan.

Pesanan kami kepada pembaca terutamanya mereka dari kalangan professional dan kakitangan pelbagai industri termasuk perkhidmatan awam; dalam membaca buku ini; tentunya tuan/puan akan terlihat unsur-unsur yang mirip kepada piawaian ISO 9000 dan lain-lain piawaian antarabangsa.

Walaupun demikian, untuk pengetahuan pembaca :

a. Pendekatan buku ini akan mengikut proses perniagaan (di mana poin perniagaan biasanya bermula secara tipikal) dan boleh terus disesuaikan dengan apa juga jenis organisasi.

Sidang pengarang juga telah memberikan contoh-contoh dan istilah-istilah yang mudah difahami dalam setiap ciri-ciri yang dipaparkan,

Manakala piawaian ISO pendekatannya berbentuk elemen yang sekurang-kurangnya perlu diatur kembali mengikut kesesuaian proses/operasi dan tiada contoh-contoh konkrit diberikan.

b. Buku ini bukan bertujuan untuk mencapai sebarang persijilan seperti ISO ianya hanyalah panduan yang mengandungi ciri-ciri Islamik – ianya boleh disesuaikan kepada apa juga bentuk organisasi malah boleh dijadikan prinsip secara individu,

c. Walaubagaimanapun, rujuksilang tetap dilakukan kepada dokumentasi ISO, pelbagai piawaian halal dan pengurusan Islam yang lain untuk memudahkan kefahaman,

d. Buku ini tidak akan menjadi satu tindanan (overlapping) kepada mana-mana piawaian ISO, ianya hanyalah satu pilihan kepada pembaca dan pengamal pengurusan perniagaan Islam.

Tetapi sekiranya ada pihak yang berminat untuk meningkatkan taraf buku ini kepada piawaian, sidang pengarang sentiasa bersedia untuk berbincang secara lanjut.

Adalah diharapkan buku ini akan mendapat keredhaan dan rahmat Allah SWT supaya isi kandungannya dapat dilaksanakan paling hampir dengan kehendak syarak di zaman penuh mencabar ini.

Juga nawaitu kami ialah untuk mengkayakan lagi khazanah keilmuan Islamik dan dapat diharmonikan dengan sistem yang sediada seperti perbankan dan kewangan Islam, sistem perakaunan/pengauditan berorientasikan Islam, pelaburan Islam, piawaian halal, piawaian pengurusan Islam yang lain dan sebagainya.

Setelah buku ini dicetak, sidang pengarang dijangka; InsyaAllah; akan mengadakan siri-siri bengkel dan latihan serta perundingan dengan kerjasama agensi-agensi yang berkaitan. InsyaAllah, buku ini bukanlah buku yang terakhir bagi kami, akan ada lagi siri-siri komplimentari (siri-siri mini) yang akan dikeluarkan dalam tempoh yang terdekat.

Wassalam

SIDANG PENGARANG

NIK ZAFRI BIN ABDUL MAJID

MUHAMMAD SUKRI BIN YAHYA


Antara kandungan buku (ciri-ciri utama) ini ialah :

1.0 PEMASARAN- R & D, Tinjauan Pemasaran, Periklanan dan Promosi berkonsepkan ta'sir, qimah, tanpa unsur ihtikar dan gharar serta mengambilkira :

i) MS 1500:2009 (M), Makanan halal -Pengeluaran, penyediaan, pengendalian dan penyimpanan -Garis panduan umum (Semakan kedua)

ii). MS 2200:Part 1:2008, Islamic Consumer Goods -Part1: Cosmetic and Personal Care -General Guidelines

iii). MS 2400-1:2010, Halalan-Toyyiban Assurance Pipeline -Management system requirements for transportation of goods and/or cargo chain services

iv). MS 2400-2:2010, Halalan-Toyyiban Assurance Pipeline -Management system requirements for warehousing and related activities

v). MS 2400-3:2010, Halalan-Toyyiban Assurance Pipeline -Management system requirements for retailing

vi). Piawaian dan Panduan bersabit dengan GMP dan HACCP di mana berkaitan

vii) MS1900:2005 Quality Management System - Requirement From Islamic Perspectives

Jenis-jenis produk/industri spt. dharuriyah, hajiyah dan tahsiniah.

2.0 PEMBELIAN DAN PENGURUSAN HARTA - yang memaparkan konsep at-thaman, rundingan, sewaan, spesifikasi, jumlah/mutu, sampel, perlantikan pembekal, sistem kawalan kredit bai-muajjal, qa/qc, pengurusan harta alih & tidak alih, rekod, jaminan bank dari bank/kewangan Islamik, atau Bon (sukuk) dsb.

Ianya juga mengambilkira kesesuaian organisasi menggunakan - PO/Kontrak berdasarkan musamma, al-bay (barter trade/kontra), ijarah, jualan, kafalah, qard (kolateral, wang tahanan dsb) - qimi, hibah, wasiyyah/hawalah, iqalah, wadiah, muzaraah, rahn, suftajah (cek kembara), muatah (spt. memakai vending machine), umra/iarah, amanah, thunya, Tawliah, Wadhiah, Isyrak dan Murabahah dan al-inah

3.0 PERANCANGAN - yang memaparkan sumber dan prasarana, tanggungjawab pengurusan, perlantikan wakil syariah atau panel syariah, perancangan/pengurusan sumber manusia, dokumentasi dan rekod.Ianya juga mengambilkira - takhtit, tanzin dan KPI/KRA/MBO


(Dalam ciri-ciri Sumber dan Prasarana ada menyentuh mengenai kepentingan sistem perakaunan mengikut :

'Pernyataan Prinsip Sistem Perakaunan Islam' keluaran Lembaga Piawaian Perakaunan Malaysia (MASB. Selain itu kepentingan terdapatnya 'musolla' dalam sesebuah organisasi yang ingin mengamalkan panduan ini)


4.0 OPERASI - yang memaparkan perkara-perkara am, kemudahkesanan, penstoran, aturan barangan, kawalan peralatan ukuran, penilaian -pemeriksaan/penilaian berkala, pengredan 'patuh syariah', tatacara nilaian, ketidakpatuhan - azimah & rukhsah, penilaian susulan, penyediaan senarai ketidakpatuhan.

Konsep Penilaian adalah berdasarkan Wiqayah :

I. tandaras kejayaan – asas pencapaian matlamat organisasi

II. penjamin kelicinan operasi – tandaras ukuran dan penentuan kelicinan operasi di samping berorientasikan motivasi ke arah kejayaan.

III. Proaktif – mewujudkan dan menjangka langkah-langkah pencegahan masalah berdasarkan pengalaman, kemahiran, syor yang bernas dan lain-lain.

IV. menjalankan penilaian tanpa tujuan untuk mencari kesalahan sebaliknya sama-sama untuk mencari langkah-langkah penambahbaikan dan dijalankan dalam bentuk tidak menjatuhkan maruah seseorang.

5.0 PENAMBAHBAIKAN - yang memaparkan mesyuarat semakan semula

6.0 PELANGGAN

Buku dan panduan ini juga akan memaparkan contoh model pengurusan Islamik dengan contoh cartalir.

NANTIKANLAH KEDATANGANNYA!!

Saturday, May 26, 2012

SHOULD METHOD STATEMENT & JSA BE INTEGRATED? - NIK ZAFRI

A note to the Malaysian Construction Industry

(Click to enlarge)

Question : Salams and greetings Nick. In some countries, construction industry integrates the Job Method Statement and Job Safety Analysis. I also know that some countries do not incorporate them together. Should JMS and JSA be integrated?
Answer
Thank you for query. In Malaysia, I know many construction companies do not mix Method Statement and Job Safety Analysis. Strange it might seems, but there is always a rationale behind it.

From what I gather, it is commonly due to the foll...owing scenario :

Element : Preventive Action - (prevention of occurence) - not corrective action or correction.

The company is heading towards certifications of OHSAS 18000 and ISO 9000. The funny thing about Malaysia is that despite some construction companies attempt to integrate (even with EMS ISO 14000) some certification bodies still consider them as two or three separate system.

If there is a certification audit being conducted..say if the company is going for ISO 9000, the certification auditors will only focus on the ISO 9000. I seldom heard that they do an integrated audit (perhaps if coincidentally they want both systems to be audited)

(I do not wish to touch on why OHSAS is not being given the title ISO in front of the numbers - let the certification and accreditation bodies figure them out - although I do know the reason)

If you ask me, logically speaking BOTH JSA and Method Statement should be integrated. Quality and Safety are brothers.

If there is a quality issue, say major defects which deserve a major non-conformance, then major defects is a safety issue as well...e.g. structural integrity.

If the defect product is not being labelled properly and not been separated from the good ones, then, not only it becomes a quality issue but it is also a safety issue.

(external quality costs - is about failure of the product being accidentally delivered to the client - and definitely if the product is defective and cause great trouble to the client, it becomes a safety issue and the manufacturer or the contractor are still liable)

Now back to the JSA, here's how :

1. A Method Statement is a construction methodology which entails resources, area concerned and method of construction (some refer back to a certain trades of codes of practice) - in the manufacturing industry, it is known as Standard Operating Procedures or the closest one is Work Instruction (how to do things)

2. A JSA will determine the risk associated with such construction activity.

Thus, JSA should make reference to the Method Statement.

For example :

Method Statement for the construction of Box Culvert (just quoting an example)

It definitely will entail at least the following methods :

How to Backfill around culverts, How to do proper backfill excavations, equipment delivery, form covers/walls, formwork - footings & bottom etc. etc.

Let's take Backfill around culverts from the same Method Statement - what are the risks associated with this activity?

Employee Injury ( Falling Loads, Excavation Hazards, Equipment Operations, Etc.)

So what would be the likely preventive action?

Employee training in backfill safety procedures, Qualified equipment operators, No employees allowed under the loads, Good supervision of employees in excavation, Excavation protection as required by the depth of the excavation.

So now based on my explanation here, you tell me, should JSA be integrated with Method Statement?

My answer would be YES!

Friday, May 25, 2012

FACEBOOK - NOT A DISASTER, JUST A TALE OF OLD FASHIONED GREED

Globalist Analysis > Global Markets
Facebook — Not a Disaster, Just a Tale of Old-Fashioned Greed  
By Beat J. Guldimann | Friday, May 25, 2012

A week ago, Facebook became a publicly traded company on the NASDAQ stock exchange — putting a valuation of $17 billion on its founder's ownership stake. Since then, Facebook's stock price has been sinking, leading Beat Guldimann to question why it was ever so high in the first place. Could old-fashioned greed have been a factor?

Photo credit: Lev Radin/Shutterstock.com

Mark Zuckerberg has finally done it. Facebook went public in an initial public offering (IPO) that valued the company at over one hundred times earnings at an initial offering price that was hiked in the last hours of the deal going live. This allowed Zuckerberg and other key shareholders of Facebook Inc. to squeeze a few more dollars out of an eager public thirsty for new issues in a dry market.


_________________________________________________

  Companies don't go public in order to make those
who buy their stock rich. IPOs happen for a lot of
reasons, none of which are altruistic.

_________________________________________________

Only a few days after the stock traded for the first time, the party seems to be over. Instead of rising and allowing some lucky speculators to make a quick buck, Facebook lost a quarter of its value.

Everybody is up in arms. There are the scandalized who are crying fraud and the told-you-so's basking in schadenfreude. Meanwhile, the media is labeling the Facebook IPO an epic failure — even a disaster.

Nobody can deny that the Facebook IPO is a bit of a failure. The stock was supposed to soar in the first few days of trading so that a lot of early investors could get paid for taking the risk. At least, that's what the investment bankers' playbook says.

However, the 25% pullback out of the gates is no disaster. To the contrary, it demonstrates that markets will see things for what they are. In the case of Facebook, markets were quick to recognize that the company was simply too expensive. And they did what markets are supposed to do — correct inefficient pricing.

The story of Facebook going to town is a tale of greed, nothing more and nothing less. Companies don't go public with the objective of making those who buy their stock rich. IPOs happen for all sorts of reasons, none of which are altruistic. Let's look at a few:

First off, there is Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook's founder and its controlling force. Ever since he took Facebook outside of Harvard, his story has been an amazing success. He became one of the wealthiest twenty-somethings on the planet by transforming the way people use social media.

His problem, however, was that the lion's share of the billions he created in personal wealth was tied up in the company. Zuckerberg's motivation for the IPO was to create liquidity and take some money off the table. Selling shares to the public gives him a lot of cash and allows him to reduce the concentration of investment risk associated with his brainchild.

_________________________________________________

shareholders are watching the value of their
investment drop, while Zuckerberg counts his coins
like Scrooge.

_________________________________________________


There is nothing wrong with this motivation per se. The problem is in setting the issuing price at an unreasonably high level, which hurt the buying public that paid Zuckerberg too much for his stock. Shareholders are watching the value of their investment drop, while Zuckerberg counts his coins like Scrooge.

Yes, we understand that Zuckerberg is still a shareholder in Facebook. As such, he too suffers from the decline in market value. The difference, however, is that he did not have to pay an arbitrarily high price for being part of the ride. Even if Facebook were to lose half its value, he would still be ahead.

Landing the elusive blockbuster deal

Second, we need to look at the investment banks. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase led the syndicate that allowed Zuckerberg to transform his privately-held company into liquid money.
Their motivation was simple. Contrary to what Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein famously said in November 2009, investment banks are not doing God's work. They exist to create profits for their firms and opportunities for their bankers to earn a living and get paid bonuses.

Adding value to the economy or making future Facebook shareholders happy did not drive the Facebook syndicate. The main driving force for them was to land the elusive blockbuster deal in a dried-up new issues environment and bring in millions in fees that could be generously shared with a few lucky investment bankers in the form of outsized bonuses. It really is that simple.

Again, there would be nothing intrinsically wrong with any of this, had the syndicate not enabled the IPO to be priced at an unsustainable level. Arguably, if the investment bankers had done their job properly, they would have recognized that the issuing price was beyond reason and advised Facebook to go public at a more modest valuation.


They should also have disclosed their earnings warnings in a much more timely manner, possibly delaying the IPO altogether, as they realized that their assumptions were not supported by the reality of Facebook's latest numbers and forecasts.

_________________________________________________

Whether or not IPOs enable future growth of the
company now owned by the public is,
for the most part, just a side benefit.

_________________________________________________


The problem is that doing so would likely have meant lower revenues for the banks, or at least delayed gratification for those working on the deal. But moderation is not an area in which Wall Street bankers traditionally show too much strength. After all, Tom Wolfe refers to them as self-declared "masters of the universe" in his 1987 novel The Bonfire of the Vanities.

And let's not forget the brokerage community. Investment advisors (or should we just call them stockbrokers?) have been waiting for a deal like this one for a long time. They always have a number of key clients that are hungry for an IPO in the hopes of doubling their money quickly.

The benefit for the brokers lies in the elevated commissions that are typically associated with initial offerings. Is it any wonder then that they try to sell Facebook to their clients even at an unreasonable price?

What this short analysis leaves us with is the realization that IPOs such as the one we have just witnessed here have one driver. They satisfy the greed of company owners, investment bankers and stockbrokers first and foremost. Whether or not they enable future growth of the company now owned by the public is, for the most part, just a side benefit.

The single most important thing that the investing public needs to recognize in all deals like this one is that their interests and expectations are not usually aligned with the interests of those involved in bringing the stock to market and selling the IPO. Which really just brings us back to the tried and tested principle of "buyers beware."

Friday, May 18, 2012

Europe's New Normal - It's Here, It's Unclear, Get Used to It

An article by R. DANIEL KELEMEN

The eurozone's troubles no longer qualify as a crisis, an unstable situation that could either quickly improve or take a dramatic turn for the worse. They are, instead, a new normal -- a painful situation, to be sure, but one that will last for years to come. Citizens, investors, and policymakers should let go of the idea that there is some magic bullet that could quickly kill off Europe's ailments. By the same token, despite the real possibility of Greek exit, the eurozone is not on the brink of collapse. The European Union and its common currency will hold together, but the road to recovery will be long.

It has been nearly two and a half years since the incoming socialist government in Greece revealed the extent to which its predecessor had accumulated debt, precipitating an economic storm that has left slashed budgets, collapsed governments, and record unemployment in its wake. With each dramatic turn, observers have anticipated the story's denouement. But again and again, a definitive resolution -- either a policy fix or a total collapse -- has failed to emerge.

The truth is that there are no quick escapes from the eurozone's predicament. Divorce is no solution. Although some economists suggest that struggling countries on the periphery could leave the euro and return to a national currency in order to regain competitiveness and restore growth, no country would willingly leave the eurozone; doing so would amount to economic suicide. Its financial system would collapse, and ensuing bank runs and riots would make today's social unrest seem quaint by comparison. What is more, even after a partial default, the country's government and financial firms would still be burdened by debt denominated largely in euros. As the value of the new national currency plummeted, the debt would become unbearable, and the government, now outside the club, would not be able to turn to the eurozone for help.

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The eurozone has, at least in practice, done away with its founding documents

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Some economists go further and argue that countries on Europe's periphery could thrive outside the euro straitjacket. This is equally unconvincing. Southern European countries' economies suffer from deep structural problems that predate the euro.  Spanish unemployment rates fluctuated between 15 and 22 percent throughout most of the 1990s; Greece has been in default for nearly half of its history as an independent state. These countries are far more likely to tackle their underlying problems and thrive inside the eurozone than outside it.

Others have suggested that Germany and other core countries -- weary of funding endless bailouts -- might abandon the euro. That is even less plausible. Germany has been the greatest beneficiary of European integration and the common currency. Forty percent of German exports go to eurozone countries, and the common currency has reduced transaction costs and boosted German growth. An unraveling of the eurozone would devastate German banks, and any new German currency would appreciate rapidly, damaging the country's export-led economic model.

A number of policy reforms may improve economic conditions in the eurozone, but none offers a panacea. Eurobonds, increased investment in struggling economies through the European Investment Bank and other funds, stricter regulations of banks, a common deposit insurance system, a shift from budget cuts to structural reforms that enhance productivity and encourage private-sector job creation -- all of these could improve Europe's economic situation and should be implemented.

But none of these measures would quickly restore growth or bring employment back to pre-crisis levels. That is because they do not address Europe's central economic problem: the massive debt accumulated by the periphery countries during last decade's credit boom. The 2000s saw a tremendous amount of capital flow from the northern European countries to private- and public-sector borrowers in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain. Germany and other countries with current account surpluses flooded the periphery with easy credit, and the periphery gobbled it up. This boosted domestic demand and generated growth in the periphery but also encouraged wage inflation that undermined competitiveness and left massive debt behind. As the economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have pointed out, when countries suffer a recession caused by a financial crisis and debt overhang, they take many years to recover.

With both breakup and immediate solutions off the table, then, the eurozone is settling into a new normal. As the union slowly digs itself out of the economic pit, it is important to recognize that its system of economic governance has already been fundamentally transformed over the past two years.

First, the eurozone has, at least in practice, done away with its founding documents. In any monetary union in which states retain the autonomy to tax, spend, and borrow, there is a risk that some countries' excessive borrowing could threaten the value of the common currency. Recognizing this, the euro's creators drafted the Stability and Growth Pact and the "no bailout" clause in the Maastricht Treaty. The SGP placed legal restrictions on member-state deficit and debt levels, and the no-bailout clause forbade the European Union or individual member states from bailing out over-indebted states to avoid moral hazard.

The Maastricht governance regime is dead. The SGP was never strictly enforced, and when the crisis hit, the European Union tossed aside the no-bailout clause. Fearing contagion, it extended emergency loans to Greece, Ireland, and Portugal and set up a permanent bailout fund -- the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) -- which will be up and running this summer.

Having broken the taboo on bailouts, Europe had to find a way to limit the moral hazard of states turning again and again to the European Union for aid. EU lawmakers introduced the so-called six-pack legislation, which strengthened the European Commission's ability to monitor member states' fiscal policies and enforce debt limits. Twenty-five EU member states signed a fiscal compact treaty, which committed them to enshrining deficit limits into national law. Only those states that eventually ratify the treaty will be eligible for loans from the ESM.

Such legal provisions alone will not overcome the moral hazard, but they have been accompanied by evolution in bond markets, which now distinguish between the debt of healthy governments in the core and weak ones on the periphery. For the first decade of the euro's young life, bond markets priced the risk associated with the peripheral economies' bonds nearly the same as that associated with German ones. Today, the yield spreads are substantial and increase at the first sign of heightened risk. And by forcing private investors to take a nearly 75 percent loss on Greek bonds in conjunction with the second Greek bailout in February 2012, European leaders made clear that private bondholders should not expect bailouts to cover their losses, too. Now, more vigilant bond markets will police governments that run up unsustainable deficits or whose banking sectors grow fragile.

The second major structural change is that the European Central Bank -- legally prohibited from purchasing any member state's debt -- has thrown its rules aside and directly purchased billions in Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese, and Spanish bonds. Moreover, the ECB has indirectly financed billions more loans through its long-term refinancing operation, which extended over a trillion euros in low-interest loans to commercial banks.

ECB President Mario Draghi has repeatedly insisted that the bank is not engaging in "monetary financing" of member-state debts. If I were an Italian president of a central bank located in Frankfurt with a mandate designed by German inflation hawks, I would say that, too. But in practice, the ECB has shown itself to be far more flexible than many had anticipated. It has revealed, quite simply, that it will not oversee the demise of the currency that justifies its existence.

This new system of eurozone governance is more sustainable than the pre-crisis regime set in place by the Maastricht Treaty. It will withstand a Greek exit, for example. If Greece refuses to adhere to the terms of its bailout package and is forced out of the eurozone in the coming weeks, the ECB will likely scramble to stop contagion, but it will not be faced with the entire system's collapse. Meanwhile, by standing firm on Greece, the European Union will have further demonstrated that the conditions attached to its bailouts are serious, motivating other states to stick to their reform programs.

Greece's exit from the eurozone would be a catastrophe for Greece and a trauma for Europe, but it would not change the fundamentals of the post-2008 eurozone governance regime, which will still be based on stronger fiscal surveillance, more robust enforcement procedures, more vigilant bond markets, and a more activist central bank. With such a system in place, and with their commitment to fiscal discipline established, EU leaders will now face the slow, difficult tasks of adjustment and structural reform. And those burdens must be shared by all. It is understandable that Germany and the ECB initially demanded austerity as the condition for bailouts, but this one-sided approach has driven peripheral economies deeper into recession. Moving forward, austerity, wage reductions, and structural reform on the periphery must be comupled with public spending and wage increases in Germany, which will boost demand. There will be no quick fix, but the eurozone will recover, slowly but surely.