WHAT'S DRIVING GOLD?

(A)

Cause :

Growth in World Money Supply

Years of easy monetary policies by central banks and now the trillions of dollars in economic stimulus to fight the global recession

Effect :

Inflationary Pressures

Excess cash in marketplace eventually tends to bid up prices for goods and services

Possible Ramifications

Declining Confidence in Paper Money

The prospect of inflation lowers confidence in Paper money a a store of value leading may investors to buy gold to preserve their wealth

(B)

Cause :

Volatile Stocks and Oil Prices

After several bull market years, stock and commodity markets turned down dramatically in 200 as the global economy slid into recession. While markets have partially recovered from their low, they remain volatile and many investors remain focused on capital preservation

Effect

Safe Haven Appeal

With other hard assets like real estate and commodities losing value, there was a revived appreciation of gold as a safe haven for investors seeking to protect themselves during difficult times.

Possible Ramifications

Increased Demand for Gold

The recession of 2008 created a large new class of gold investors. The strong demand exerted by this group, along with traditional gold buyers, drained the global inventory of gold coins and gold bars, thus driving up the price of bullion at a time of shrinking worldwide production.

(C)

Cause :

China

Gold has long been prized in China, which is one of the world's largest producers and consumers. Increasingly China's gold market has become more liberalized

Effect :



Trade Surplus

China has a huge trade surplus with the U.S. and Europe that generates vast quantitites of foreign currency. China also has one of the world's highest savings rates.

Possible Ramifications

China buys a considerable amount of U.S. Government debt, but it is diversifying its reserves by increasing its holdings of gold. In addition, China is pursuing investments to recycle its dollars into natural resource projects.

(D)

Cause :

Low Gold Price in 90s

After climbing as high as $850 an ounce in 1980, gold dropped as low as $252 an ounce in 1999.

Effect :

Cuts in Exploration

Low prices and environmental controls discouraged mining companies from spending the money to find new supplies of gold

Possible Ramifications

Falling Production

The lack of investment during the low-price years means new supplies of gold have not kept pace with gold demand

(E)

Cause :

Low Interest Rate

When real interest rates are low many investors turn away from paper assets with declining value and instead turn towar assets with real value, like gold.

Effect :

Hedging Curtailed

When interest rates are low, there is little incentive for hedging. As a result, gold is removed from the market.

Possible Ramifications

A decline in hedging shrinks short-term gold supply, creating a market imbalance during a time of escalating demand.

(F)

Cause :


Credit Crisis

The U.S. economy has been hurt by tighter liquidity associated with heavy losses in the key housing and financial sectors

Effect :

Interest Rate Cuts by Fed

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates effectively to zero in an effort to lift the economy out of recession

Possible Ramifications

Weaker U.S. Dollar

Rate cuts drive down returns for currency investors. Many of those investors will buy gold as an alternative reserve asset, thus driving up demand.

World economic growth in year 2011



According to the information contained in the new report by the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, the world’s GDP at the end of 2010 could grow by 4,2% (January forecast reported 3.9% growth). With regard to this indicator for 2011, compared to January, it has not changed and remains at 4.3%. According to IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard, a global recession has been avoided, so that a gradual recovery of world economy is present.

Due to the fact that the world economy recovers faster than planned, evaluation of losses of the global financial sector during the crisis was reduced by 533 billion dollars. Initially it was assumed that the cancellation of bank assets amount to about 2.8 trillion, however, economic recovery has reduced that figure to $ 2.28 trillion. Losses of the U.S. banking system decreased from 1.03 trillion to 885 billion dollars. The total score of bank loan losses decreased by 13%.

For developing countries, where the formation of the market only occurs, they have restored after the world crisis quicker. The highest rate of growth is in Asia, where they make up 8.7% in 2010. The highest recovery rate – China, India, Brazil and Mexico. The growth of Chinese economy in 2010 will amount to 10% and in 2011 – 9.9%. The Indian economy will grow in 2010 by 8.8% in 2011 – by 8,4%. Brazil show 5.5% growth in 2010 and 4,1% 0 in 2011, while Mexican GDP will grow by 4.2% in 2010 to 4.5% – in 2011.



The Russian economy will recover faster than expected. Specifically, in 2010 an increase of 4% instead of the planned 3.6% in January. GDP growth in 2011 somewhat slowed down to 3.3% (in January was a figure of 3.4%). However, qualitative growth of the Russian economy will be small – it has been forecasted before.

The U.S. economy compared to European and Japanese will develop more dynamically. In 2010 the U.S. GDP will grow by 3.1% in 2011 – 2.6%. Japan also will add to its GDP 1.9% in 2010, and in 2011 – 2.0%. As for the euro zone, where the pace of economic development leaves much to be desired, not exceeding in 2010 of 1%. Thus, the strongest European economy – German – to grow as a result in 2010 only 1,2%, and in 2011 – by 1.7%. Somewhat better position in the UK from outside the eurozone. They GDP in 2010 could grow by 1.3%, and in 2011 – even at 2.5%.

Source: abforex.ru