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BIODATA - NIK ZAFRI


 



NIK ZAFRI BIN ABDUL MAJID,
CONSULTANT/TRAINER
Email: nikzafri@yahoo.com, nikzafri@gmail.com
https://nikzafri.wixsite.com/nikzafri

Kelantanese, Alumni of Sultan Ismail College Kelantan (SICA), IT Competency Cert, Certified Written English Professional US. Has participated in many seminars/conferences (local/ international) in the capacity of trainer/lecturer and participant.

Affiliations :- Network Member of Gerson Lehrman Group, Institute of Quality Malaysia, Auditor ISO 9000 IRCAUK, Auditor OHSMS (SIRIM and STS) /EMS ISO 14000 and Construction Quality Assessment System CONQUAS, CIDB (Now BCA) Singapore),

* Possesses almost 30 years of experience/hands-on in the multi-modern management & technical disciplines (systems & methodologies) such as Knowledge Management (Hi-Impact Management/ICT Solutions), Quality (TQM/ISO), Safety Health Environment, Civil & Building (Construction), Manufacturing, Motivation & Team Building, HR, Marketing/Branding, Business Process Reengineering, Economy/Stock Market, Contracts/Project Management, Finance & Banking, etc. He was employed to international bluechips involving in national/international megaprojects such as Balfour Beatty Construction/Knight Piesold & Partners UK, MMI Insurance Group Australia, Hazama Corporation (Hazamagumi) Japan (with Mitsubishi Corporation, JA Jones US, MMCE and Ho-Hup) and Sunway Construction Berhad (The Sunway Group of Companies). Among major projects undertaken : Pergau Hydro Electric Project, KLCC Petronas Twin Towers, LRT Tunnelling, KLIA, Petronas Refineries Melaka, Putrajaya Government Complex, Sistem Lingkaran Lebuhraya Kajang (SILK), Mex Highway, KLIA1, KLIA2 etc. Once serviced SMPD Management Consultants as Associate Consultant cum Lecturer for Diploma in Management, Institute of Supervisory Management UK/SMPD JV. Currently – Associate/Visiting Consultants/Facilitators, Advisors for leading consulting firms (local and international) including project management. To name a few – Noma SWO Consult, Amiosh Resources, Timur West Consultant Sdn. Bhd., TIJ Consultants Group (Malaysia and Singapore) and many others.

* Ex-Resident Weekly Columnist of Utusan Malaysia (1995-1998) and have produced more than 100 articles related to ISO-9000– Management System and Documentation Models, TQM Strategic Management, Occupational Safety and Health (now OHSAS 18000) and Environmental Management Systems ISO 14000. His write-ups/experience has assisted many students/researchers alike in module developments based on competency or academics and completion of many theses. Once commended by the then Chief Secretary to the Government of Malaysia for his diligence in promoting and training the civil services (government sector) based on “Total Quality Management and Quality Management System ISO-9000 in Malaysian Civil Service – Paradigm Shift Scalar for Assessment System”

Among Nik Zafri’s clients : Adabi Consumer Industries Sdn. Bhd, (MRP II, Accounts/Credit Control) The HQ of Royal Customs and Excise Malaysia (ISO 9000), Veterinary Services Dept. Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), The Institution of Engineers Malaysia (Aspects of Project Management – KLCC construction), Corporate HQ of RHB (Peter Drucker's MBO/KRA), NEC Semiconductor - Klang Selangor (Productivity Management), Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia (ISO 9000), State Secretarial Office Negeri Sembilan (ISO 9000), Hidrological Department KL (ISO 9000), Asahi Kluang Johor(System Audit, Management/Supervisory Development), Tunku Mahmood (2) Primary School Kluang Johor (ISO 9000), Consortium PANZANA (HSSE 3rd Party Audit), Lecturer for Information Technology Training Centre (ITTC) – Authorised Training Center (ATC) – University of Technology Malaysia (UTM) Kluang Branch Johor, Kluang General Hospital Johor (Management/Supervision Development, Office Technology/Administration, ISO 9000 & Construction Management), Kahang Timur Secondary School Johor (ISO 9000), Sultan Abdul Jalil Secondary School Kluang Johor (Islamic Motivation and Team Building), Guocera Tiles Industries Kluang Johor (EMS ISO 14000), MNE Construction (M) Sdn. Bhd. Kota Tinggi Johor (ISO 9000 – Construction), UITM Shah Alam Selangor (Knowledge Management/Knowledge Based Economy /TQM), Telesystem Electronics/Digico Cable(ODM/OEM for Astro – ISO 9000), Sungai Long Industries Sdn. Bhd. (Bina Puri Group) - ISO 9000 Construction), Secura Security Printing Sdn. Bhd,(ISO 9000 – Security Printing) ROTOL AMS Bumi Sdn. Bhd & ROTOL Architectural Services Sdn. Bhd. (ROTOL Group) – ISO 9000 –Architecture, Bond M & E (KL) Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9000 – Construction/M & E), Skyline Telco (M) Sdn. Bhd. (Knowledge Management),Technochase Sdn. Bhd JB (ISO 9000 – Construction), Institut Kefahaman Islam Malaysia (IKIM – ISO 9000 & Internal Audit Refresher), Shinryo/Steamline Consortium (Petronas/OGP Power Co-Generation Plant Melaka – Construction Management and Safety, Health, Environment), Hospital Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (Negotiation Skills), Association for Retired Intelligence Operatives of Malaysia (Cyber Security – Arpa/NSFUsenet, Cobit, Till, ISO/IEC ISMS 27000 for Law/Enforcement/Military), T.Yamaichi Corp. (M) Sdn. Bhd. (EMS ISO 14000) LSB Manufacturing Solutions Sdn. Bhd., (Lean Scoreboard (including a full development of System-Software-Application - MSC Malaysia & Six Sigma) PJZ Marine Services Sdn. Bhd., (Safety Management Systems and Internal Audit based on International Marine Organization Standards) UNITAR/UNTEC (Degree in Accountacy – Career Path/Roadmap) Cobrain Holdings Sdn. Bhd.(Managing Construction Safety & Health), Speaker for International Finance & Management Strategy (Closed Conference), Pembinaan Jaya Zira Sdn. Bhd. (ISO 9001:2008-Internal Audit for Construction Industry & Overview of version 2015), Straits Consulting Engineers Sdn. Bhd. (Full Integrated Management System – ISO 9000, OHSAS 18000 (ISO 45000) and EMS ISO 14000 for Civil/Structural/Geotechnical Consulting), Malaysia Management & Science University (MSU – (Managing Business in an Organization), Innoseven Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 MSPR8 – Awareness and Internal Audit (Construction), ISO 9001:2008 and 2015 overview for the Construction Industry), Kemakmuran Sdn. Bhd. (KVMRT Line 1 - Signages/Wayfinding - Project Quality Plan and Construction Method Statement ), Lembaga Tabung Haji - Flood ERP, WNA Consultants - DID/JPS -Flood Risk Assessment and Management Plan - Prelim, Conceptual Design, Interim and Final Report etc., Tunnel Fire Safety - Fire Risk Assessment Report - Design Fire Scenario), Safety, Health and Environmental Management Plans leading construction/property companies/corporations in Malaysia, Timur West Consultant : Business Methodology and System, Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) ISO/IEC 27001:2013 for Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya ISMS/Audit/Risk/ITP Technical Team, MPDT Capital Berhad - ISO 9001: 2015 - Consultancy, Construction, Project Rehabilitation, Desalination (first one in Malaysia to receive certification on trades such as Reverse Osmosis Seawater Desalination and Project Recovery/Rehabilitation)

* Has appeared for 10 consecutive series in “Good Morning Malaysia RTM TV1’ Corporate Talk Segment discussing on ISO 9000/14000 in various industries. For ICT, his inputs garnered from his expertise have successfully led to development of work-process e-enabling systems in the environments of intranet, portal and interactive web design especially for the construction and manufacturing. Some of the end products have won various competitions of innovativeness, quality, continual-improvements and construction industry award at national level. He has also in advisory capacity – involved in development and moderation of websites, portals and e-profiles for mainly corporate and private sectors, public figures etc. He is also one of the recipients for MOSTE Innovation for RFID use in Electronic Toll Collection in Malaysia.

Note :


TO SEE ALL ARTICLES

ON THE"LABEL" SECTION BELOW (RIGHT SIDE COLUMN), YOU CAN CLICK ON ANY TAG - TO READ ALL ARTICLES ACCORDING TO ITS CATEGORY (E.G. LABEL : CONSTRUCTION) OR GO TO THE VERY END OF THIS BLOG AND CLICK "Older Posts"


 

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

MADE THE BIG TIME!
(This article has been republished in nikzafri.blogspot.com with permission from Dr. Bradley Smith, President of PeopleKeys(R) Corporation, please visit the official Corporate Website for more details)

CLICK ON THE PIC TO VIEW :

Also reported here

New Revenue Sharing HR Program for Franchisors from PeopleKeys(R)

NEW CASTLE, Pa., March 23 /PRNewswire/ -- PeopleKeys(R) announces a new revenue-sharing program for franchisors, business networks and co-ops. PeopleKeys(R) President Brad Smith says, "The PeopleKeys(R) Revenue-Share Program makes finding, filtering, hiring, motivating and retaining top sales and customer service personnel a revenue generator rather than an expense. Now, a network with one thousand members can make seven figures annually while providing affordable HR services to their own clients at less than a fraction of what they currently spend on hiring and retention."

Developed specifically with a large business network in mind, PeopleKeys(R) Revenue-Share Program lets the franchisor pass the value and savings along to the franchisee similar to an affinity program. However, affinity programs don't generate income and value for the franchisor in such a profound way. By giving franchisors a tool to replicate, hire and retain top performers, PeopleKeys(R) is creating an ongoing revenue stream and strengthening the value proposition of the franchise all with no up-front investment. "For what it costs a franchisee just to place an employment ad, PeopleKeys(R) provides a one-stop hiring solution," Smith adds, "Just imagine, franchisors can get paid for what was once a costly investment that needed to be made."

PeopleKeys(R) works with businesses like Manpower(MAN) and CareerBuilder.com in providing human asset solutions. Manpower came to PeopleKeys(R) when they needed a way to assess and hire top sales people in multiple countries around the world. Smith says, "We were able to behaviorally determine the qualities all top performers had in common and then assess and replicate those people." CareerBuilder came to PeopleKeys(R) for their online DISC assessments which they are best known worldwide. Smith adds, "The largest online job board uses our behavioral assessments to hire their own people."

The PeopleKeys(R) Revenue-Share program is built around online systems specifically branded for the business network or franchisor. PeopleKeys(R) has developed online systems for the small "mom and pop" businesses to the largest of clients like Manpower who have more than 4,000 offices worldwide.

About PeopleKeys

Established in 2004, PeopleKeys(R) unlocks human potential with a sophisticated online filtering, hiring and managing system that helps small and large companies hire and retain top performers. Developed from over 30 years experience in the personality assessment business, PeopleKeys(R) puts their highly-validated DISC personality typing method at the heart of their system. Using filters and benchmarks, PeopleKeys(R) helps employers replicate their best performers.

Monday, March 16, 2009


The death of the 'decoupling' theory?
By Conrad de Aenlle Published: January 25, 2008



Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., on Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2008. U.S. stocks pared their biggest decline since 2002 after the Federal Reserve's emergency rate cut helped mitigate concern the economy is slipping into recession. (Jin Lee/Bloomberg News)


No one can say how much has been lost by investors basing decisions on unproven strategies that work in theory, but the amount has grown significantly. As trillions of dollars were wiped off the value of global stocks this week, "decoupling" became the latest big idea to shrink dramatically when tested in the real world.

Decoupling holds that European and Asian economies, especially emerging ones, have broadened and deepened to the point that they no longer depend on the United States for growth, leaving them insulated from a severe slowdown there, even a fully fledged recession. Faith in the concept has generated strong outperformance for stocks outside the United States - until now.

As opinion began to solidify after the start of the year that a recession, or something close to it, was likely in the United States, stock prices accelerated their declines, with the selling intensifying early this week. Contrary to what the decouplers would have expected, the losses were greater outside the United States, with the worst experienced in emerging markets and such developed economies as Germany and Japan.

Exports make up especially large portions of economic activity in those places, but that was not supposed to matter anymore in a decoupled world because domestic activity was thought to be so robust.

Decoupling was all the rage early last year when international financial markets all but ignored the increasing turmoil in the U.S. economy and stock market. Investment advisers point out, however, that the segments of the U.S. economy that were showing wear and tear then were those to which the rest of the world would never be heavily exposed. That is no longer true, they say, and markets are responding accordingly.

"Decoupling is yesterday's story," Stuart Schweitzer, a global strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, declared. "Last year, when the U.S. slowdown was driven almost entirely by housing, it made sense that the rest of the world kept right on going. Housing is a domestic story, plain and simple.

"The nature of the slowdown has changed in two key respects. The credit crunch that began in midsummer is not just a U.S. phenomenon; the rise in risk aversion is global and will have an impact on credit terms and availability everywhere. And we're finally seeing evidence that the U.S. job market is losing steam and consumer spending is slowing."

True believers in decoupling have ignored another theory that appears to be logically inconsistent with it, has been popular for far longer and, most important, has been shown to work in real life. Remember globalization?

"If anything, global interdependence of economies is rising, not falling," said Jeff Applegate, chief investment officer of Citi Global Wealth Management.

"The notion that the U.S. can go into recession with no negative knock-on effect in the rest of the world doesn't hold up."

Andrew Foster, head of equity research for Matthews International Capital, a specialist in Asian markets, contends that it is possible for globalization and decoupling to coexist. In fact, one gave rise to the other, he said. It was only through economic liberalization that the juggernaut economies of Asia were able to grow as fast as they have, allowing for the development of conspicuously consuming middle classes.

"The irony is that these economies are more coupled with the rest of the world than they ever were in the past," he said. "That's why they're so strong, and that has allowed them to become more independent."

The new Asian consumers may not be able to compensate for all of the exports that would be lost during an American recession, Foster said, but some of the companies that serve their needs might still do all right for themselves. The true decoupling may be not so much between the United States and the rest of the world as between segments of the global economy that cater to the burgeoning nouveau riche in emerging economies on one hand and most other commercial sectors on the other.

With the United States apparently tipping over into recession, Foster is looking to fill his Asia portfolios with the first type of businesses, as long as they have not been bid up to unreasonable levels already. A couple of pockets of opportunity that he finds are Chinese insurance companies and Indian health care providers.

"I like companies that don't derive their fortunes from products, services and especially commodities dominated by the global business cycle," he said, although he declined to furnish examples.

Valuation is also critical for Michael Avery, chief investment officer of Waddell & Reed and a professed believer in decoupling - up to a point. He noted that the concept began to pop into the heads of professional investors, including his, during the last U.S. recession, in 2001-2002, although it had not yet achieved buzzword status.

"A lot of people in our business were thinking about where the world was going to head in a post-9/11 environment," Avery recalled. "The U.S. economy had slowed dramatically in 2001, and you had places in the world like China and India that continued to grow at mid- to high single digits. That set in motion the thinking that the U.S. might not be the leading economic force going forward."

But while he accepts the basic idea of economic decoupling, he is not fanatical about it as an investment theme, at least not now. The emerging world will grow faster than the United States, in his view, but Avery doubts that sufficient growth can be achieved to justify the valuations being put on companies in those markets by the new wave of decoupling adherents.

"The big difference in 2002 is that not many people placed bets on that outcome, so there wasn't much risk," he said.

"Now I can go anywhere, and if I talk about China and India and the emerging middle class, they all nod their heads. It's a huge difference from five years ago."

Avery still finds value in some domestically oriented sectors in Asia, as well as in Middle Eastern markets that continue to benefit from one key export, crude oil. He noted that while exports to the United States of less viscous products may be at risk, the growth of middle-class spending is promoting a healthy expansion of trade within the emerging world.

Avery made a big bet on declining share prices late last year when he sold short derivative contracts tied to benchmark stock indexes. But his Ivy Asset Strategy Fund has substantial holdings in such plays on emerging-market domestic demand as the phone company China Mobile; Veolia Environnement, a French producer of water treatment systems, and Las Vegas Sands, an American hotel and casino operator expanding into Macao.

In addition to selling stock index futures, Avery has about 10 percent of his portfolio each in gold, cash and Treasury bonds as hedges against the uncertainties and jolts that would accompany a U.S. recession.

Tim Guinness, chairman and chief investment officer of Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, is another whose objection to decoupling is more a matter of how it works in practice.

"I'm a moderate decoupling believer," he acknowledged. "I'm in the camp that believes that China is rapidly moving from being dependent on exports to the U.S. to enjoying a virtuous circle of rapidly rising incomes for Chinese consumers and very strong momentum behind internally driven growth."

There is momentum in China's stock market, too, he noted, but in a different direction. Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of decoupling is giving back much of its enormous gains of the last few years as investors break faith with the concept.

"I prefer China, but not today," Guinness said. "The next few months will see a continued retreat in China-related stocks. The correction already has been very pronounced."

He prefers less bubbly stock markets in emerging economies where domestic demand is strong, like South Korea and Thailand. Individual stocks that he favors include PTT in Thailand, Singapore Petroleum and Cemig, a Brazilian hydroelectric company.

Applegate, at Citi, finds stocks better value than bonds. He particularly likes global banks and stocks in Europe and emerging markets generally, although he considers China and Hong Kong fairly pricey.

Bonds and equities have experienced sharply diverging fortunes recently. Many stock markets are more than 20 percent below their 2007 highs, while yields on government bonds have plummeted, sending their prices aloft.

Movements in both markets suggest that investors are factoring a global recession into their thinking, a development that could set the stage for the next rally in stocks and render the decoupling argument moot.

Another theory, with a proven track record, states that stocks should be bought once the economy is recognized to be in recession. By then, share prices account for all or most of the bad news, the authorities have taken steps to correct imbalances and a recovery is often imminent.

"Play the movie forward," Applegate said. "If the economy is going to soften globally, then can you expect more central bank policy response? The answer is a resounding yes."

In such conditions, he said, "you should have more of a preference for equities over bonds."
--------------------------------------------------
Nik Zafri's Comments : I've been saying it!!!

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

MALAYSIA : MARKET GOING UP - ECONOMICAL RECESSION GOING DOWN - MARCH TO APRIL - SOMETHING GOOD IS HAPPENING.


1) Mini Budget - 2nd Stimulus - RM60 billion
2) ASEAN Finance Ministers Meeting - RM308 Billion common fund

Hmmm...Looks like I was right...It's gonna be March to April, 2008..for Malaysia.

Market gonna go up this month!!

Investors - Alert!!
Employers - restructure your retrenchment or layoff plans NOW!!
Employees - work harder than ever before - quit worrying!!
Banks and Financial Institutions - approve loans now - give a good BLR!!
Food Price - should be stable but the Government has to do enforcement!!

There's more...

So, let's see what the 'so-called' speculators, economists, analysts have to say this time...more excuses?

Friday, March 06, 2009

THE POWER OF TELLING THE TRUTH - By Nik Zafri

In this brief article of mine, I will not mention names of company or individuals involved. Just something that can be seriously considered before laying off workers.

ABC company is a diversified business entity. So, comes one fine day when the Executive Commitee decided to lay off at least 500 nos. The MD was furious and told the members of the board - NO WAY...we won't have enough despite the members were saying "We can outsource certain services" (typical corporate excuse)

But of course, being the major shareholder and owner of the company, the MD has the final say. So he arranged for a special small convention to see ALL the workers, executives and senior executives - surprisingly together with their families.

The MD told them the truth of what's happening in their company and he gave everyone a choice, to leave with some gratuities/compensation or VSS or to stay on with less salary with one assurance; should the company 'goes up' again, they will be rewarded.

ALL the workers, execs and execs, DECIDED TO STAY! and WORK HARDER with little pay. Even the union known to reject also AGREED to stay.

In 6 months, the company profitted tripled and everyone was happy receiving their rewards as promised.

I'm sure I don't need to tell what's the morale of this true story. Imagine, a simple telling the truth would do to you.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

This was what I've said few months back :

Many have forecasted that SEA will be the first to rebound from the current economic crisis by September, 2009.

On the other hand, what saddens me most is that some even forecasted that Asian economy will fall badly in 2009 - such a pathetic statement meant to discourage us.


In the past, we have been known for the reputation of outperforming the US and Europe due to the right planning and eventually become very immune to any credit crunch from the West.

Some countries are not even depending on IMF or World Bank in 1997-1998-remember? Even China has been too much underestimated (not that I disagree but too much 'smart' speculations..come on) by these 'so-called' economic forecasters.

I have always been known as a 'reverse psychological' person. I don't believe in 'too obvious bad news' being reported meant to lure the small investors away but giving great monetary advantages to speculators.

Based on these 'unfounded fears', I feel strongly that the Asian will be one of the key players in the world economy commencing from 2009.

But of course, I have a different theory (especially for Malaysia) - I think it's earlier than that...say April, 2009?


AND

Where would be the ideal starting point? The answer is the first tier - Banking and Financial Institutions. I would like to open this suggestion to Asia (or SEA) as Asia is a very unique continent that has always found a way towards survival. (perhaps some democratization of financial policies should be in place) Most important is TRUST and coordinated efforts one another - as every bankers and financiers have all the knowledge. (Don't wait for someone else to start first) There should be no more too much dependency on certain elite groups or industries that are 'controlling the financial world' and we have seen the impact when these 'big mega industries' started to fall
-------------------------------

Today...I'm so happy to see THIS NEWS :

From The Star 21 February, 2009:

Asean to seek consensus on RM308b common fund

PHUKET: Malaysia, along with other Asean members, will meet tomorrow to seek consensus on a multi-billion dollar Asean+3 Cooperation Fund for economic stimulus packages.

Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak will lead the Malaysian delegation at the special meeting among Asean finance ministers, together with their counterparts from China, Japan and South Korea.

The meeting is to formalise a common fund aimed at bolstering foreign exchange reserves to cope with the global economic crisis.

Under the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation Scheme, Asean members, Japan, China and South Korea have agreed to create a pool of US$84bil (RM308bil). The fund, which was agreed to in May last year, is to help boost forex reserves among member countries.

China, Japan and South Korea will contribute 80% of the fund while the remaining 10 Asean countries will come up with the rest.

A Malaysian Finance Ministry official said Asean finance ministers would also discuss methods to protect the region’s economy and other joint initiatives to overcome the current economic slum.

“Asean finance ministers are also expected to discuss and raise the fund to US$120bil (RM441bil) to help revive the region’s economy.

“The meeting will also seek views on ways to tackle the current economic issues as well as enhancing the regional trade and financial markets corporation.”
---------------------------
Nik's comments :

The RIGHT MOVE!! GO FOR IT!!


Personal Note : I sure hope President Obama sees this.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

NIK ZAFRI'S CODE OF ETHICS FOR FREELANCE CONSULTANTS
(c) Reserved 2000 - (Revision 1 - 2004, Revision 2 - 2009) - Nik Zafri Abdul Majid. Duplication/infringement of any part(s)of this article/'intellectual property' without prior consent from the author may result in serious litigation.

ABSTRACT/DISCLAIMER

The reasons for this article being written (or rather handbook) :

- To guide and recommend freelance consultants/trainer/developer (Hereinafter referred to as "FC") with proper code of practice/etiquettes of how to conduct freelance services appropriately .

- To close the gap of understanding between the 'interested parties' and FCs (interested parties - Client, Public At Large, Authorities, Professional Affiliation Organization and those having interest in this topic)

This article is not meant to be a catalyst or in support or in line to/with any existing law(s), regulation(s) or standard(s) issued/gazetted by any authorised party(ies)in any part(s) of the world. If any of the elements below found to be in common/similar with other sources, then the similarities should be considered purely coincidental.The author welcomes comments from readers especially other FCs from all around the globe.

RULE NO. 1

An FC is unlikely to be hired or earning a fixed income/wages/allowances with any specific organisation. He/she is basically operating under his own individual name or company. (START SMALL - END BIG, START BIG - SMALL!)

Note - likely to operate based on SOHO (either from house or small outlet rented with basic office automations especially a fully equipped personal/laptop/notebook computer - fully equipped PC/Laptop or Notebook computer means those with Wi-Fi-Wi-Max (x-max) /Broadband connection, Smart Office facilities such as Auto Answering, Responders, Fax on Demand, Network Connection readiness-VPN/Wireless LAN, perhaps a handheld device etc. etc.)

An FC also likely to form :

Smart Partnership/Association/Affiliation - Project Basis and/or Profit Sharing with established consulting firms - in other words - 'visiting basis/smart associates'. Depending on the agreed written terms and conditions, He/She may likely enjoy some perks/benefits on this kind of deal. He/She is not usually defined as 'Resident Consultant' unless otherwise, the terms and conditions set by the client are being reviewed or the project requirements are as such.

RULE NO. 2


In his/her quotation, professional charges/fees are usually based on the following (typical - depending on cases) calculation/formula :

Standard Market Price/person or hour/day X % Training Grants Rebate = Nett Charges (after less unclaimable training rebate due to hiring a freelance consultant)

Consider giving other discounts based on number of days or trainees. FC may also assist the client to claim any training grants or rebate if the client is a registered contributor and provided that the FC himself is an accredited/certified trainer.

Also, in his quotation/proposal, the fee is likely to exclude costs like f & b, incidental, accommodation etc. etc. to be borned by the Client.Upon agreement, an FC usually asks for a certain commitment fee on 'without prejudicial and TRUST basis' (to be minused with overall professional charges and balance to be paid upon completion of programme....SATISFACTORILY!)

All the professional charges usually goes to his own savings or current account or if he/she is on smart-partnership - it will go to the consulting firms and paid to his account accordingly (to the agreement between FC and the consulting firm)

Be prepared to pay tax if required to do so. Keep genuine and accurate documentation, records and datum (plural of data...not datas)- DO NOT AVOID TAX!! (Don't worry...since the freelance consulting market usually fluctuates, just be honest with the IRD in your declaration)

Note : The 'cake' is very big. Do not argue or underestimate or try to 'kick out' other fellow consultant(s). In not too many words, they are 'your brothers/sisters'...cooperate with them...remember no consultant can claim that 'he/she knows everything' or 'jack of all trades'. Do not spoil the market. Take a 'small slice of cake' and always remember - 'quality and quantity'.

Always 'sacrifice' a fraction of your knowledge to your client..it doesn't hurt a bit..in fact it helps a lot!

Most important, do not 'show off' (talk big or boast) in the presence of your client.
REMEMBER, you are a freelance consultant and not a CEO of some major bluechip corporation in the country.

I've seen 'consultants' like these before...they talk big, act big, CHARGE BIG, but work SMALL, contribution SMALL and end SMALL!! - BE HUMBLE!!

RULE NO.3
An FC :

must possess ICT and Technological-based knowledge (or technical - even if you have to be self-learned in engineering discipline) and 'a little bit of' skills (able to provide solution rather than hypothesis - for this you need to have an informative online portal to impress your client(s) must possess adequate hands-on experience in multiple management/industrial disciplines must possess eloquency, confidence and able to properly present himself/herself (be aware, alert, susceptible in confronting almost all types of situation) must update himself/herself with the latest knowledge and its rapid evolution must possess basic academical qualification (s) (advantage but lately not a prerequisite! - experience is more favourable)

An FC must provide a proper contact address and telephone nos., e-mail, website URL, plus detailed information about himself.

Note : The more 'transparent' you are...the betterAn FC must have the initiative to develop a vast network of communication/contacts with other consultant(s) or consulting firm (s), government agencies/authorities and clients. This network will assist him/her greatly in fields he or she unfamiliar with.

An FC shall provide his/her client (s) with many options in consulting/developing and training programmes/packages. Most economical - Client will send only one key personnel to be trained and disseminate the information to his/her organisation. In doing so, an FC must equip his training/developing/consulting package(s) with a proper and systematical chains of feedback, follow-up, surveillance, monitoring, supervision, service and verification systems. These elements shall facilitate:

- 3rd Party Follow-Up Assessment (s) if required by the client
- Genuine understanding by the client after being trained by his/her own officer
- Follow-up training/consulting/development if necessary
- LONG TERM business and professional relationship
Another type of training would be the in-house training at the client's premise or elsewhere determined by the client. Charges/fees should follow the aforesaid formula. Try to avoid 'public programmes except in the case of 'smart partnerships'

Note : You do not want a 'one time cash and carry' business and suffer the consequences such as disreputation in the market!!

Monday, February 09, 2009

Pengeluaran Bon sebagai Alternatif Penstabilan Ekonomi - Nik Zafri

Nota ringkas ini lebih kepada haipotesis ekonomi dan pengarang tidak memberikan apa-apa jaminan kejayaan sekiranya haipotesis berikut digunapakai.

Pengeluaran bon untuk menstabilkan ekonomi juga dikenali sebagai Bon GDP- Gross Domestic Product. Reaksi balas yang berlaku apabila cadangan ini dikeluarkan ialah kenaikan faedah.

Apakah kelebihan dan kelemahan Pengeluaran Bon berkaitan GDP :

1. Servis Bon adalah tinggi dalam suasana pasaran sihat tetapi akan rendah apabila pasaran tidak sihat.

2. Bagi peminjam - pengeluaran ini akan menstabilkan perbelanjaan awam dan Kerajaan akan dapat servis apa-apa hutang semasa suasana pasaran yang sihat dan kurang memberikan servis hutang jika berlaku sebaliknya. Krisis hutang dan kegagalan membayar hutang akan dapat dikurangkan. Apabila ini berlaku, ianya akan membantu proses pemulihan.

3. Bagi pelabur - kerugian mungkin berlaku serentak dengan masalah gagal membayar hutang. Jadi, jika dibandingkan dengan bon konvensional, bon yang berkait dengan GDP dapat memastikan bayaran total yang leibh tinggi dan ini pastinya akan mengurangkan kebarangkalian kegagalan pembayaran hutang.

4. Kerajaan dapat membantu membiayai sektor yang berpotensi apabila bon berkait GDP dikeluarkan. Tidak mustahil, sektor yang baru atau sedang berkembang umpamanya industri pembuatan akan menyasarkan untuk disenaraikan dalam Bursa Malaysia kerana pengeluaran bon akan dapat memperbetulkan pasaran saham.

5. Pengeluaran bon ini juga akan dapat menambahbaik pasaran modal (terutamanya bon korporat - dalam kes di Malaysia - Bon ini dikeluarkan oleh GLC) Sektor korporat juga dapat mengurangkan kos dan menambahbaik kecukupan modal sekiranya bon ini diintegrasikan dalam struktur kewangan.
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ISSUANCE OF 'GDP-LINKED' BONDS

There has been some interesting stories I heard in the market about the intention of the Government to issue bonds to stabilize the economy. When plan of economic stabilization involves, these bonds are known as "GDP-linked"Just a short comment (I hope)
There are a number of things to talk about whenever anybody touched about GDP and linking it to bonds.But one of the most popular reactions would be the increasing interest in creating bonds.
1. Bond servicing is higher during rapid growth but lower if the growth is slow.
2. For borrowers - issuance may stabilize public spending as Government can service more debt during affordable times and less during difficulties. It is also said to lower down crisis of debts and defaults. When you reduce the service of country's debt during recession, it may help in the recovery process.
3. For investors - losses may happen due to defaults. Thus, comapred to the conventional bond, this kind of bond (GDP-linked) can ensure higher total payment hence reducing default probability (what am I saying? )
4. The Government can help in financing some potential sectors if GDP-linked bonds are issued. In theory, some emerging or new sectors (any industry esp. manufacturing) can target to be listed in the Bursa Malaysia if they wish as bond issuance can help correction in the stock market.
5. It also helps in improving capital market as well (esp. corporate bonds - in Malaysia's case - the bonds issued by GLC). The corporate sector can reduce cost and improve capital efficience once bonds are integrated into the financial stucture.

Thursday, February 05, 2009

Note : although this may not be related to Malaysia, I find this article interesting and some may applicable to everyone in the world as well..






How to Wake up from the American Dream



Is this really what it's all about?

from wikiHow

It's in your power to wake yourself up, would you like to? People are diverse, and even a good formula doesn't work for everybody: married with children, a house in suburbia, 2 or 3 large cars, mortgage payments and bills. Which dreams satisfy you? You could uproot the unworkable memes that block your satisfaction.



Note---The concept of 'The American Dream' is entirely constructed, do not actually believe that it exists in Reality. As mentioned before, it is a meme--which acts virally--and only exists inside of a mind which accepts (has Faith in) it.Your dream exists, you exist, but "The American Dream" as an independent 'thing' does not.



Steps

  1. Notice your level of dissatisfaction. If you are completely satisfied, that's great and congratulations. These suggestions are for helping the rest of us. If anybody's way of spending time or activity makes you feel jealous, admit it to yourself; you're only human. Notice what sorts of activities give you this feeling, and which you are glad you're not doing. Notice if you prefer to be hurried, or if you prefer to be unhurried. If you daydream, notice about what.

  2. Pay attention to your level of dissatisfaction; it has a tendency to fall out of your awareness, if you don't yet know what to do about it, or if you believe "nothing can be done about it anyway". You can push on through this belief in order to try experiments; if full satisfaction seems very unlikely but not quite impossible, something can be done after all. Settling for "good enough" can slow down the awareness you're looking for. If you ever have the thought, "there's got to be more than this", follow that thought and see where it leads.

  3. Seek sources of understanding your dissatisfaction. Your dissatisfaction is not random, it has causes, and you can come to understand the cause-and-effect relations underlying the obstacles to your full satisfaction. There are some excellent materials available for free at the public library, including the books of Daniel Quinn, James Howard Kunstler, Harry Browne, Jim Marrs, Derrick Jensen, Starhawk, and others; authors who point to the possible origins of the problem, and to steps towards solutions. A few links are below. You could also ask the freest, most vibrant person you know!

  4. Become aware of what causes your dissatisfaction. Take the understanding from your sources and make it yours, adapting if need be. Learn how to tell what desires and dreams come from inside you, and which desires and dreams were given to you by the culture you grew up in and the outside influences that surround us. Taking time to listen inside yourself is hard for busy people, but it is crucial.

  5. Make personal choices that move you away from the causes of your dissatisfaction. New choices can move you towards causes of joy, relaxation, relief, belonging, and freedom to control more of your own time. Pay attention to which choices increase your ability to choose further, and which restrict your next choices. Which brings us to:

  6. Research the assumptions on which the American Dream is based:


    1. Consider the meaning of owning a house and land: What does allodial land ownership mean? Is home "ownership" now complicated? How much of that mortgage payment just pays interest? While a house may appear at first to be enriching, you don't wish yours to become the master while you work more and more hours of the week just to improve and maintain the house you are too tired to enjoy. It may be enlightening for you as a homeowner to track your time and see if it's true for you or not.

    2. Empower your own location choices. As transportation costs skyrocket, you don't have to become a victim of the shortsightedness of others. If suburbia (history) was arguably built with no thought to the oil price rises now beginning, then think about how the end of cheap transportation could make islands of these locations; will there be enough fish in the surrounding waters (figuratively speaking) to feed the inhabitants? It may be wise for you to choose to get out early, into a more sustainable type of neighborhood.

    3. Decide on your own, whether it's true that "A new car will get you the girl or guy of your dreams". How often do we hear and see that message in various forms every day? After payments, insurance, traffic, congestion, isolation, parking, maintenance, risks, and fuel costs, it may not be the convenience it looks like in the ads. You can free yourself from the debt of a new car, depleting dwindling fossil fuels, and contributing greenhouse gases. Can you take pride in using public transportation? Are there advantages to living in a home where you can bus, walk or bicycle to the places that matter to you? Some people rely on public transport for the bulk of their needs. They group certain errands for one day, (heavy groceries, distance travel, inconvenient areas for transit) and rent a car for this day. Compare rental prices and terms by phone, and book your car at least two days ahead of time. This is still much cheaper than owning a car, and kinder to the earth. It can also make the prospect of using public transport less daunting, when you know that in a pinch or for a date, you can "borrow" a car for a day, or even two.

    4. Decide if marriage is really for you; make your approach and decisions more conscious. You don't have to be one of the many good people who allow a marriage to become a nightmare or a lie; instead you could do an honest, fearless and searching inventory of your motivations and needs. If it works for you, personalize it. If it doesn't look to be for you, you may wish to research ways of living and loving that don't require a contract. If a marriage isn't working for you and your partner, you can talk it out and negotiate a dissolution of the contract before it becomes necessary, as Harry Browne recommends in How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World. In any case, this step means make it conscious.

    5. Visit another way of doing things. Look at several dreams and compare. Many of these are in other countries and work just as well for Truth, Justice, Beauty, and maybe for you. Several other countries are very close; once there, you have to get off the beaten tourist paths, which imitate somebody else's dream anyway (something you're learning to not do), so live like the locals for a try. One of the clearest ways to get a perspective on which dream is for you is to see the one you were raised in from a distance, a far geographic - and especially cultural - distance. The more different, the better to compare. There are small pockets of other ways inside the USA as well, if you know where to look: Ecovillages, intentional communities, squats, artists' colonies, food coops, cohousing, traveling shows, and progressive employers. Lots of creative people.

    6. Consider not having children just yet. It's more fair to kids if you finish sorting out your priorities first, and it enables you to experiment. You may find it pleasant to extend this time...indefinitely. Consider making a satisfying contribution to your community or world that a busy parent cannot accomplish. If you do really want to raise a child, there are plenty of wonderful adoptable ones that already exist and need love, who don't add to the crowding and resource problems that make all dreams harder to fulfill.


  7. Once you have awakened, you can act to start changing your life and freeing your time.


    1. Examine your possessions for hidden costs or choice-restrictions. Except for the tools with which you make a living, you may find selling some to pay off your debts frees your time and space.

    2. Network with others who are following their own way rather than formulas.

    3. Barter a service for a service. That is, do something for somebody that does something for you, with no money involved. Likely, you both will spend less time than it takes to work for money to pay for the service, and you may prefer the personable quality. Try out making an agreement on a one-time basis with a mere acquaintance or even a stranger!

    4. Brainstorm what your life could be like if you could do more of what you like and less of what you don't. Brainstorm responsible ways to take short breaks where you try that life on for size. Brainstorm ways to more quickly meet your basic responsibilities so as to make these breaks longer and longer.

    5. Try the experiment of keeping a record of how you spend your money. After a month or so, look at each item on your list and give it a quick "thumbs-up" mark if it was worth it according to your personal values, or a quick "thumbs-down mark" if it cost too much according to your personal values. This works best if you make a point to be clear in terms of pleasing yourself; if you want to please others, before or after your marking session is better, just not during. Make a small reminder card of the notable thumbs-ups and thumbs-downs, carry it in your wallet or purse right next to your money, and glance at it when you reach for your money. Your awareness will increase, and increasingly match your own values. Think of spending as something you can change.

    6. Try keeping a record of how you spend your time. After two weeks or so, give a quick "thumbs-up" mark to each worth-it item according to your personal values, or a quick "thumbs-down mark" if it cost too much time according to your personal values. This also works best if you make a point to be clear to please your own self; that is, you may give your times of helping others high marks, just mark with your preferences in mind, not theirs or the cultural norm. Make a small reminder card of the notable thumbs-ups and thumbs-downs, clip it to your calendar or schedule, and glance at it when you make your schedule, or agree to do something, or plan, and once a day at a random time. Your awareness will increase, and increasingly match your own values. Think of spending time as something you can change.

    7. If you find yourself choosing differently, you may wish to Find or found a cohousing neighborhood, or a community where you can live well on less monetary income (they do exist), and move there; or

    8. Investigate more creative options like living in cities as a squatter, freegan, and/or nomad. People with minor children will have fewer viable options, but opportunities for communal sharing of expenses do exist. As more people empower themselves and find each other, more support for children becomes available.


Tips

  • Many of these steps involve coming to awareness - literally, just like waking up!

  • Finding ways to get more of what you want may free you from having to chase what you don't really want. As you increase your satisfaction, you may find yourself living on less monetary income, but don't let it frighten you: it does not have to mean living poorly.


Warnings

  • Don't be embarrassed that you used to pursue things that didn't satisfy you. Just move on to the future you prefer.

  • Your awakening may put you out of step with some.

  • Be patient with yourself. Some of this will go better if you pursue it with vigor in a timely way, but important transitions don't have to happen all at once.

  • Be patient with others. They may not understand. If asked, tell them what is working for you, and what didn't work for you.

  • Be careful not to overcompensate.


Article provided by wikiHow, a wiki how-to manual. Please edit this article and find author credits at the original wikiHow article on How to Wake up from the American Dream. All content on wikiHow can be shared under a Creative Commons license.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009


Dialog berikut dipetik daripada Rancangan Dialog @ 1 dan juga daripada Bahagian Penerbitan Dasar Negara, Jabatan Penerangan Malaysia. Saya telah membuat sedikit pindaan kerana terdapat sedikit kesilapan dari teks asal.

RANCANGAN DIALOG @ 1

TETAMU
Y.B. TAN SRI NOR MOHAMED YAKCOP
MENTERI KEWANGAN (II)

07 JANUARI 2009, 9:30 MALAM (TV 1)

PERANTARA
SABARUDDIN AHMAD SABRI


1. Dalam usaha menyelamatkan ekonomi negara, kerajaan telah memperkenalkan Pelan Rangsangan Ekonomi yang telah dibentangkan di Dewan Rakyat pada persidangan Dewan Rakyat yang lepas. Peruntukan sebanyak RM 7 bilion telah diluluskan untuk menjana ekonomi Negara dengan pelbagai insentif dan subsidi telah diperkenalkan bagi membantu rakyat terutamanya golongan berpendapatan rendah.

2. Krisis ekonomi yang melanda dunia kini bermula daripada kejatuhan ekonomi Amerika Syarikat yang selama ini mengamalkan sistem kapitalis yang amat terbuka dengan memberi kebebasan yang besar kepada syarikat-syarikat yang bukan dimiliki oleh kerajaan. Kerajaan Amerika tidak mengawal langsung dasar dan operasi syarikat-syarikat kapitalis yang beroperasi.

3. Dasar atau sistem ekonomi kapitalis yang diamalkan di Amerika Syarikat, United Kingdom dan Eropah telah mencetuskan sifat tamak serta ingin menguasai keseluruhan kepentingan telah menyebabkan hilang perasaan ingin menolong syarikat-syarikat kecil yang sering ketinggalan dalam pasaran ekonomi terbuka. Di sinilah peranan spekulator yang sering mencetuskan spekulasi ekonomi bertujuan mencari keuntungan di sebalik kegelisahan pemegang-pemegang saham.

4. Ekonomi dunia termasuk Malaysia pada tahun 2009 diramal akan penuh dengan pelbagai cabaran. Walaupun negara telah bersedia lebih awal lagi melalui Pelan Rangsangan Ekonomi, namun dalam pasaran ekonomi yang terbuka serta urusan eksport yang menjadi sebahagian daripada kegiatan ekonomi negara, sedikit sebanyak tempias kegawatan ekonomi dunia akan tetap dirasai.

5. Peruntukan sebanyak RM 7 bilion yang diperuntukkan telah pun diagih-agihkan kepada semua kementerian yang bertanggungjawab bagi melaksanakan penjanaan ekonomi negara. Melalui penambahan pelbagai projek-projek kerajaan serta menambahkan peruntukan, kerajaan berharap keyakinan swasta kepada ekonomi negara akan meningkat. Pihak-pihak Bank juga digalakkan memberi pinjaman kepada pengusaha dan peniaga kecil bertujuan membolehkan mereka bergerak serta menjana kegiatan ekonomi. Kerajaan sentiasa memastikan dan memberi nasihat kepada setiap institusi kewangan untuk sentiasa membantu mengerakkan kegiatan ekonomi.

6. Kerajaan akan sentiasa menaruh keyakinan kepada perkembangan ekonomi Negara bertumbuh dengan kadar yang perlahan tanpa penguncupan. Melalui pelbagai dasar dan insentif, kerajaan akan memperbanyakkan peruntukan bagi memastikan projek-projek kerajaan akan sentiasa berjalan.

7. Malaysia adalah sebuah negara yang mempunyai simpanan daripada setiap ringgit yang dikeluarkan. Melalui simpanan ini, negara akan sentiasa mempunyai rizab simpanan yang boleh dikeluarkan sekiranya diperlukan. Negara lain termasuk Amerika Syarikat, tidak mempunyai simpanan daripada setiap nilai mata wangnya.

8. Sejak tahun 1983, Malaysia telah memperkenalkan Dasar Perbankan Islam yang telah terbukti berjaya dan mempunyai nilai keselamatan yang tinggi. Kini kebanyakan bank di Malaysia telah mengamalkan sistem Perbankan Islam.

9. Kegawatan serta kejatuhan ekonomi dunia kini, tetap akan dirasai di seluruh dunia termasuk Malaysia. Namun begitu, negara telah belajar melalui pengalaman tahun 1987, 1997 dan kini muncul semula suasana kegawatan ekonomi dunia, cuma cara dan pengendaliannya agak berbeza.

10. Dalam usaha menjana ekonomi negara secara berterusan, kerajaan akan sentiasa memastikan kredit dan pinjaman bank kepada pengusaha dan peniaga diteruskan bagi menjana kegiatan ekonomi. Selain itu, pengangguran pula perlu dikurangkan secara berterusan sehingga mencapai sasaran sifar. Melalui penambahan projek-projek kerajaan yang dapat dilaksanakan oleh swasta mahupun kerajaan, akan mewujudkan peluang-peluang pekerjaan kepada rakyat. Kerajaan juga akan memastikan syarikat-syarikat swasta tidak akan memberhentikan pekerja dengan alas an kemelesetan ekonomi.

11. Ekonomi negara kini dijana sebanyak 70 peratus oleh pihak swasta. Melalui kerjasama dan persefahaman yang jitu, kerajaan sentiasa memberi peluang kepada pihak swasta melaksanakan pelbagai projek kerajaan. Dasar Penswastaan yang telah diamalkan oleh kerajaan sejak tahun 1982 telah berjaya membina ekonomi negara dengan berkesan. Melalui Dasar Penswastaan, setiap syarikat swasta akan menganggap mereka, rakyat dan kerajaan di dalam satu syarikat dan berusaha untuk memajukan secara bersama. Kejayaan dasar ini telah menyebabkan kerajaan dan swasta sama=sama memastikan kejayaan negara dikongsi bersama.

12. Kerajaan Malaysia mempunyai kemampuan yang lebih untuk meminjam daripada mana-mana negara dan tabung atau dana wang di peringkat antarabangsa, namun kerajaan masih mampu melaksanakan dasar dan membelanjakan peruntukan yang ada melalui pelbagai aset dan dana kerajaan. Malaysia mempunyai acuan sendiri dalam menguruskan ekonomi negara tanpa bergantung kepada negara luar atau pun dana asing yang akan menjerumuskan negara kepada sifat kebergantungan kepada negara asing. Ternyata dasar dan pelan ekonomi negara telah berjaya meletakkan negara di landasan yang betul dalam menguruskan ekonomi.

PERANTARA : Assalamualaikum dan salam sejahtera saudara, bertemu dalam Rancangan Dialog@1 dan pada malam ini kita akan mengutarakan rancangan pertama kita, Dialog@1 dan Dialog@1 pada malam ini akan membincangkan satu tajuk yang saya rasa rata-rata ramai orang akan menunggu kerana ianya melibatkan semua pihak iaitu Ekonomi 2009, yang mana seperti yang saya nyatakan tadi di awal rancangan, ialah apakah perancangan kita menghadapi masalah ini ataupun ekonomi akan berkembang terus ataupun bagaimana mengatasi masalah ini, dan bagi para penonton kita, untuk Dialog@1 ini kita juga membuka talian kita ataupun kita membuka tajuk SMS di komen, soalan ke 32776.

Hantarkan komen anda, jarak dan soalan, ataupun untuk menghantar komen sila taip komen, nama, lokasi dan nama, soalan atau komen anda dan hantarkan SMS anda ke 32776. Bagi para pemanggil kita, kita juga buka talian kita di 03-22828578/8579. Dan bersama kita pada malam ini untuk membincangkan tajuk yang saya rasa agak penting untuk semua orang ialah Y.B. Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop, Menteri Kewangan II. Selamat datang Tan Sri. Masih tak terlewat saya mengucapkan Selamat Tahun Baru kepada Tan Sri. Kalau kita perhatikan, Tan Sri, sekarang ini tahun 2008 merupakan satu tahun yang penuh dengan cabaran yang mana pada awal dan pertengahan kita dapati terdapat peningkatan mendadak kepada harga minyak, komoditi dan sebagainya. Dan ada juga pihak bergembira pada masa tersebut kerana harga itu naik, dan harga minyak yang menyebabkan inflasi meningkat.

Untuk pengetahuan, kita dapati satu lagi bencana di dunia ini apabila krisis kewangan yang begitu saya ingat sangat hebat sejak mungkin berpuluh tahun kita tidak mengalaminya di dunia ini. Dan kita telah menyebabkan rakyat di negara kita tertanya-tanya, apakah yang sebenarnya berlaku pada 2008 dan apakah harapan kita, ekonomi khususnya pada 2009. Bagaimana Tan Sri boleh melihat perkembangan ini kerana Tan Sri juga kita faham pernah terlibat dalam 1997 di mana Tan Sri, terima kasih Tan Sri telah berjaya dapat membantu negara keluar daripada masalah kewangan. Dan ini sebenarnya kita ingin ketahui apakah sebenarnya yang berlaku pada 2008 dan dari segi ekonomi dunia mungkin kita boleh bincang di Dialog @1, Tan Sri.


MENTERI : Terima kasih saudara Sabaruddin. Untuk kita mengatasi sesuatu masalah, kita harus faham apa dia itu masalah. Itu satu pengajaran kita sejak tahun 1997. Kita dapat mengatasi kemelut tahun 1997 sebab kita tau selok-belok tentang masalah yang kita hadapi pada masa itu. Jadi, soalannya apakah masalah dunia pada masa ini. Daripada mana puncanya? Selalu disebut, oleh para analyst bahawa ia berpunca dari Amerika Syarikat dan yang bermula dengan kerapuhan sistem kredit yang berpunca dari krisis sub-prima. Tapi saya berpendapat kita perlu lihat lebih jauh lagi. Dan saya berpendapat, bahawa kita kini melihat kehancuran sistem kapitalisme Anglo-Saxon. Sebenarnya sejak tahun 1980an, sistem kapitalisme Anglo-Saxon ini telah menjadi sistem utama di Amerika Syarikat, United Kingdom dan juga negara-negara lain, mula terikut-ikut sistem kapitalisme Anglo-Saxon. Sistem kapitalisme Anglo-Saxon ini percaya sangat kepada sistem swasta dan mengikut sistem ini dan kerajaan tidak perlu memainkan peranan untuk mengawal sistem swasta. Sistem swasta itu dengan sendirinya akan menjanakan ekonomi dan kerajaan perlu mengambil tindakan yang sedikit bila perlu sahaja. Dan juga dalam sistem Anglo-Saxon ini, di berikan kebebasan yang terlalu sangat banyak kepada pihak-pihak di sistem itu.


Dan akhirnya sistem ini melibatkan dua unsur. Unsur pertama ialah ketamakan yang tidak berketepian. Dan kedua ialah ketakutan yang tidak berasas. Dan kita lihat bahawa begitu banyak spekulasi yang telah wujud dalam sistem ini. Sejak tahun 1997 dan kini dan yang saudara Sabaruddin sebut tadi. Harga komoditi telah naik, harga pasaran telah naik, harga minyak telah naik dari USD80 pada tahun 2007 kepada USD147 pada pertengahan 2008. Sebab apa dia naik begitu mendadak? Sebab spekulasi. Dan spekulasi itu berasaskan kepada ketamakan. Dan macam-macam alat, macam-macam produk diwujudkan yang begitu kompleks yang tidak masuk akal, tapi diwujudkan dan begitu banyak pinjaman dibuat. Dan bila ekonomi dah turun, unsur yang jadi unsur penting ialah ketakutan. Begitu takut sehingga bank-bank yang terkemuka tidak berani meminjam kepada bank-bank terkemuka yang lain. Memanglah untuk pelanggan. Mereka tidak pinjam. Tapi untuk bank-bank lain pun mereka tak pinjam. Jadi ini telah mengakibatkan satu kerapuhan dalam sistem kewangan. Sistem kredit Amerika Syarikat.


Dan ini telah juga memberi tempias kepada sistem ekonomi benar Amerika Syarikat. Dan sebagai sebuah negara kecil, dan terbuka, yang juga eksport kepada Negara-negara maju tempias itu kita akan terima jugalah dalam tahun 2009. Saya sendiri menganggap tahun 2009 dan saya sendiri menganggap tahun 2009 sebagai satu tahun yang sungguh mencabar untuk kita.


PERANTARA : Tan Sri, saya ingin menarik perhatian kerana ramai juga tertanya-tanya kalau sebelum ini kita ada sambutan sebelum ini Krismas dan akan datang adalah Tahun Baru Cina, dan mereka meramalkan bahawa keadaan ekonomi akan bertambah buruk katanya selepas bulan dua atau bulan tiga. Adakah itu benar Tan Sri dan bagaimana persediaan yang perlu kita hadapi.


MENTERI : Yang jadi masalah sekarang yang jadi isu sekarang ialah tentang cabaran yang dihadapi oleh industri-industri, syarikat-syarikat yang mengeksport kepada luar negara khasnya kepada Amerika Syarikat dan Eropah. Banyak juga syarikat terutamanya syarikat-syarikat dalam bidang electrical dan electronic yang bergantung kepada eksport telah mula merasa tempias di kemelut ekonomi di luar negara. Dan bidang eksport telah menyaksikan satu penguncupan yang signifikan juga. Dan inilah merisaukan banyak pihak. Sama ada industri-industri di negara ini akan memberhentikan pekerja-pekerja dan tidak mengambil pekerja-pekerja baru. Kerajaan memang sedar dengan kerisauan ini dan kemungkinan ini berlaku. Iltizam kerajaan, matlamat kerajaan, objektif kerajaan yang paling utama dalam tahun 2009 ialah untuk mengambil tindakan dari segala aspek dan untuk memberi peruntukan yang mencukupi untuk memastikan bahawa setiap rakyat yang mampu bekerja dapat bekerja. Itu iltizam kita. Dan kita akan berbincang dengan pihak-pihak industri, syarikat-syarikat, persatuan-persatuan untuk mencari kaedah, untuk mencari mekanisme untuk kerajaan membantu dalam perkara ini. Supaya tidak diberhentikan pekerja.

PERANTARA : Kalau kita perhatikan Tan Sri, memang usaha kerajaan memang telah nampak sebelum ini. YAB Timbalan Perdana Menteri sebagai Menteri Kewangan juga telah mengumumkan pakej rangsangan sebanyak 7 bilion, tapi ada pihak mengatakan pakej rangsangan mereka semacam katakan tidak turun. Apa yang dinyatakan oleh pihak kerajaan semacam tidak sampai ke peringkat bawah lagi. Apakah sebenarnya Tan Sri? Adakah bila akan dapat dilihat kesan ini? Atau bagaimana Tan Sri?

MENTERI: Tujuh bilion jumlah ini telah pun dibahagi-bahagikan kepada semua kementerian yang terlibat. Dan semua kementerian itu kini sudah ada peruntukan dan Y.A.B Timbalan Perdana Menteri sendiri telah mengarahkan semua kementerian untuk melaksanakan projek-projek dengan cepat. Saya yakin sebelum hujung suku pertama tahun ini, kita akan lihat impak rancangan rangsangan 7 bilion ini. Saya juga mungkin perlu memberi sedikit penjelasan tentang projek rangsangan ini yang dilaksanakan oleh Kerajaan sebab dalam keadaan yang begitu mencabar ini, yang penting sekali adalah keyakinan. Kita harus memastikan bahawa keyakinan ada di tahap yang tinggi. Dan kita tahu bahawa di dalam keadaan yang begitu mencabar ini, pihak swasta mungkin tidak begitu berani untuk meminjam bagi memperkembangkan perniagaan mereka. Kita faham dan sungguhpun sistem kita begitu mempunyai kecairan, mempunyai liquidity dan mempunyai simpanan yang begitu banyak tetapi mungkin syarikat-syarikat tak berani untuk mengambil pinjaman yang banyak. Di masa seperti inilah Kerajaan,
sebab kita telah melaksanakan polisi begitu berhemah, tidak meminjam banyak pada masa yang senang, kita sekarang mampu membuat dan mengambil pinjaman dari sistem kewangan kita dan kita akan menggunakan pinjaman ini untuk projek-projek yang dapat mempertingkatkan penggunaan aggregate demand supaya dapat mewujudkan lebih banyak peluang-peluang pekerjaan.


Dan selepas satu masa yang singkat, saya yakin bahawa langkah-langkah ini dan projek-projek yang dilaksanakan ini akan mengembalikan keyakinan pihak swasta dan pihak swasta sendiri akan mula buat pelaburan dan mengambil langkah untuk mengembangkan perusahaan mereka. Dan 7 bilion yang saudara Sabaruddin sebutkan tadi akan kita lihat akan turun ke bawah. Dan ini termasuk 300 juta untuk memberi skills training supaya kita dapat memberi latihan kepada rakyat kita supaya mereka dapat pengetahuan yang baru dan latihan dalam segala bidang supaya kualiti manpower atau human capital kita lebih tinggi.

PERANTARA: Ya, Tan Sri kalau kita lihat memang kegawatan kita dulu, Tan Sri telah merangka satu program untuk melatih semula graduan-graduan yang menganggur dan memberikan mereka pengetahuan dalam bidang ICT dan juga bahasa Inggeris. Dan kalau kita perhatikan baru-baru ini, terdapat laporan menyatakan kita pun terpaksa menanggung 555 ribu lebih orang pekerja yang telah pencen dan jumlah yang sejumlah 10 bilion dalam masa dua tahun. Tan Sri, dari segi produktiviti mereka, ada juga orang mempertikaikan kenapa kita perlu membelanjakan 10 bilion. Tanpa produktiviti yang mungkin saya ingat banyak mereka ini mempunyai pengalaman? Di manakah mungkin dari segi penempatan mungkin diletakkan kerana kita terdapat masalah untuk mengisi ruangan-ruangan atau kerja-kerja kosong di sana dengan kekurangan jawatan di pihak swasta. Bagaimana Tan Sri melihat isu ini?

MENTERI: Ini memang satu aspek yang begitu menarik sebab kita mempunyai banyak juga rakyat kita yang mempunyai pengalaman dan pengetahuan dalam pelbagai bidang. Dan mereka dulu terpaksa pencen dalam umur 56 tahun dan Kerajaan telah meningkatkan umur pencen kepada 58 tahun. Kerajaan juga telah membuat satu sistem di mana mereka yang pencen boleh berkhidmat balik melalui satu konsep yang dipanggil Contract For Service. Sungguhpun sistem kerajaan mempunyai jawatan-jawatan tertentu dan jawatan-jawatan hanya boleh diisi melalui peraturan tertentu tetapi untuk jawatan-jawatan lain semua kementerian telah diberi kuasa untuk melantik termasuk mereka yang pencen sebab tak hilang pengetahuan mereka dan tak hilang pengalaman mereka. Mereka boleh lantik dan diberi kebebasan serta kelulusan untuk
mereka melantik pegawai ini untuk berkhidmat kembali dalam mana-mana jawatan dan juga dalam jawatan-jawatan sebagai guru dan tenaga pengajar kepada staf-staf lain.


PERANTARA: Itulah dia. Kita boleh gunakan kepakaran mereka selain kita biarkan. Kita harus, Tan Sri, berada di talian adalah dua orang tetamu yang kita telah undang iaitu Y. Bhg Datuk Salleh Majid, Penganalisis Ekonomi dan juga Y.Bhg Datuk David Chua, Timbalan Setiausaha Agung Gabungan Dewan Perniagaan Perindustrian Cina Malaysia, yang bersama kita dalam Dialog di Tv1 untuk berinteraksi bersama Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop. Keduanya telah berada di talian. Hello….Hello Datuk Salleh dan Datuk David? (Kedua-dua Datuk menjawab salam) Ok, Datuk, saya ingat saya tanyakan soalan kepada Datuk Salleh dulu. Datuk, mungkin ada pertanyaan kepada tetamu kita iaitu Y..B. Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop, Menteri Kewangan II kita?


DATUK SALLEH: Terima kasih. Yang Berhormat.....(Menteri memberi salam)

MENTERI: Assalamualaikum..

DATUK SALLEH: Waalaikumusalam. Di dalam akhbar hari ini kita ada terbaca berita tentang sesetengah bank telah mula enggan untuk memberikan pinjaman ataupun mengkaji semula pinjaman yang telah diberi dan ada juga pinjaman-pinjaman yang telah diluluskan malahan dikurangkan jumlah dan sebagainya. Perkara ini pada pandangan sesetengah orang agak bertentangan dengan dasar Bank Negara yang mengatakan kecairan mencukupi di dalam perbankan. Bagaimana pandangan Y.B tentang ini?

PERANTARA: Kita terima satu lagi pertanyaan Tan Sri. Kita terima daripada Datuk David iaitu pandangan Datuk mengenai ekonomi 2009. Mungkin ada spesifik yang Datuk ingin tanyakan kepada Menteri kita. Silakan Datuk.


DATUK DAVID: Saya telah mengikuti keterangan yang telah diberikan Tan Sri tadi. Satu perkara yang paling penting walaupun dalam sistem perbankan kita kecairan ada dan dikatakan bahawa para usahawan mestilah bersedia dan berani meminjam supaya dapat memperkembangkan perniagaan tetapi dari sektor perniagaan, selalu kita menghadapi masalah mendapatkan kemudahan pinjaman kerana rata-rata institusi perbankan lebih-lebih lagi mengenakan syarat- syarat yang lebih ketat lagi. Jadi ini tidak menggalakkan para peniaga untuk meminjam. Itu satu. Yang keduanya, dari segi pembekalan atau supply, usahawan mampu berbuat demikian tetapi kalau dalam satu keadaan di mana kita belum mempunyai keyakinan yang tinggi maka sukar kita menunjukkan permintaan pasaran. Perniagaan memerlukan permintaan untuk mendokong segala kegiatan yang dijalankan oleh para peniaga. Jadi saya berharap Tan Sri dapat menjelaskan kedua-dua perkara ini.

PERANTARA: Terima kasih Datuk. Kita dengar pandangan Tan Sri untuk kedua-dua soalan tadi.

MENTERI: Kedua soalan itu, soalan yang baik. Yang penting sekali adalah keyakinan dalam sistem ekonomi. Bila kita kekurangan keyakinan, bank memang tidak akan begitu berani meminjam. Pengusaha-pengusaha pun mungkin tak berani untuk membuat pinjaman untuk meminjam. Jadi itulah peranan Kerajaan dalam masa yang begitu sengit ini ialah untuk mengembalikan keyakinan dan kita mengembalikan keyakinan melalui sistem dasar fiskal kita. Kita belanja 7 bilion dengan cepat mungkin kalau boleh dalam tempoh 3-4 bulan. Dan saya yakin bahawa dengan perbelanjaan yang begitu banyak, perwujudan jawatan-jawatan yang begitu banyak serta demand untuk produk-produk melalui perbelanjaan kajiannya yang begitu tinggi, pihak bank-bank itu sendiri akan mula yakin untuk memberikan pinjaman dan pihak pengusaha dan peniaga-peniaga juga akan mula berani untuk meminta pinjaman untuk memperkembangkan perusahaan.

Saya faham dan tahu mungkin ada satu dua bank yang tidak memberi pinjaman kepada peniaga sungguhpun projek mereka variable. Kerajaan telah beberapa kali mengingatkan bank-bank bahawa pada masa inilah mereka harus memberi fokus kepada kepentingan Negara dan membantu Kerajaan dalam memulihkan ekonomi dengan memberikan pinjaman kepada mereka yang layak diberi pinjaman. Ada satu pepatah bahasa Inggeris yang menyatakan bahawa sikap bank selalu ialah untuk memberi payung kepada pelanggan bila iklim suasana elok tetapi bila mula hujan dia tarik balik payung. Tetapi kita tidak mahu bank-bank kita mengamalkan budaya yang tidak elok itu.

PERANTARA: Tan Sri, kalau kita perhatikan soalan kedua tadi tentang peniaga, supply and demand. Ini macam membuka satu lagi macam telur dan ayam. Di mana dua-duanya? Kalau mereka menunggu juga kerana permintaan tiada kerana mungkin pengeluaran dari segi pengeluaran barang-barang dan ini akan terjejas. Bagaimana Tan Sri melihat ini? Bagaimana kita nak menggalakkan lagi?


MENTERI: Dan meminjam dan belanja ini secara langsung akan meningkatkan demand. Akan meningkatkan penggunaan dan dengan peningkatan penggunaan ini isu demand bagi pihak swasta tidak akan timbul lagi.


PERANTARA : Dan Tan Sri ya, kalau kita boleh kongsi bersama pengalaman Tan Sri, apabila ketakutan bank di sini pun sama apabila melihat kemusnahan yang berlaku pada sektor kewangan di Amerika Syarikat. Bagaimana Tan Sri boleh menilaikan kemusnahan yang berlaku di sana dengan nilai yang berlaku.


MENTERI : Amerika Syarikat sistem Amerika Syarikat ini dia tidak mempunyai simpanan. Macam di Malaysia kekuatan kita ialah kadar kesimpanan kita 37 peratus iaitu daripada dari setiap ringgit kita simpan untuk masa depan. 37 sen sebagai negara. Di Amerika Syarikat kadar simpanan dia kosong. Dia tidak simpan dan 80 peratus daripada simpanan dunia dipinjam oleh satu negara, Amerika Syarikat. 80 peratus dan tiap-tiap hari kerja hari Isnin sehingga hari Jumaat tiap-tiap hari, tiap-tiap minggu. Tiap-tiap hari dia pinjam 4 bilion dollar.

Jadi dalam sistem dunia sekarang memang tak adil tak saksama. Sebab negara-negara membangun kita kerja kuat, kita menjana ekonomi, kita mengeksport ke Amerika Syarikat kita dapat UD dollar kita simpan di Amerika Syarikat. Kita tak dapat apa. Jadi sejak tahun 1997 kita telah meminta supaya diwujudkan satu sistem architecture kewangan yang baru dan di dalam sistem ini reserve simpanan kita ini dapat di gunakan dalam kawasan kita sendiri. Tidak perlu disimpan di Amerika Syarikat. Dan juga dalam sistem yang wujud sekarang terdapat double standard sebab hatch fund misalan menjalankan urusan tanpa transparency. Meminjam begitu banyak buat macam-macam spekulasi dan rating agency mereka pun macam Standard and Poor
dan Moody’s tidak dikawal langsung dan produk-produk yang begitu kompleks diberi taraf triple A dan kini trillion dollar lebih dari satu trilion dollar kehilangan dari produk-produk yang diberi taraf triple A.

Jadi ini satu sistem yang tak memanglah tak adil, tak saksama dan memang tidak akan tahan lama. Jadi kita juga dari segi jangka panjang, kita harus memberi pendapat kita dan juga cuba dengan negara-negara lain mewujudkan satu sistem yang lebih adil, satu sistem yang lebih saksama. Dan di sini saya nampak kelebihan Malaysia sebab sejak tahun 1983 kita telah mewujudkan sistem perbankan Islam dan kita kini memang merupakan negara yang terdepan sekali dalam sistem perbankan Islam dan Negara-negara lain pun dah mula datang ke Malaysia untuk mempelajari selok-belok tentang sistem perbankan Islam. Dan kalau kita membandingkan sistem perbankan Islam dengan sistem kapitalisme ala Anglo-saxon kita lihat dengan begitu jelas sekali kelebihan sistem perbankan Islam. Dan dalam sistem perbankan Islam pinjaman yang berlipat ganda tidak boleh berlaku sebab sistem perbankan Islam itu berasaskan kepada aset. Dan kalau sistem perbankan Islam dilaksanakan di seluruh dunia pada
tahun 2008 atau tahun 2007 perkara ini, kehancuran ini tidak akan berlaku. Tidak boleh berlaku di bawah sistem perbankan Islam. Jadi satu hikmah mungkin dari segi jangka panjang untuk kita cuba memperluaskan sistem perbankan Islam kepada negara-negara lain bermula dengan negara-negara Islam yang lain.

PERANTARA: Tak apa Tan Sri. Kita akan kupas lagi tentang isu perbankan Islam ini. Apakala kita berhenti seketika dan kita beri laluan kepada iklan dan sambung semula selepas itu.

PERANTARA : Ya bertemu lagi saudara rancangan Dialog @ 1 di saluran TV 1 rancangan sumber info maklumat anda. Dan Tan Sri ye, berbalik kepada Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop, Menteri Kewangan kita. Tadi Tan Sri menyatakan tentang sistem kemusnahan. Saya difahamkan kemusnahan kekayaan akibat krisis yang dianggarkan berjumlah dollar Amerika 30 trilion. Itu jumlah yang amat besar dan sebagai kayu ukur ya jumlah ini merupakan 150 kali KDNK Malaysia. Tan Sri, ini satu musibah yang paling hebat telah dikenakan ataupun berlaku di negara itu. Bagaimana Tan Sri harapan kita untuk sistem perbankan Islam ini untuk kita ketahui dan juga kita menjadikannya sebagai satu sistem yang saya ingat akan menjadi sistem dunia satu masa nanti Tan Sri.


MENTERI : Yang 30 trilion yang saudara Sabarudin sebut tadi tiba-tiba hilang ialah satu kekayaan yang diwujudkan di atas angin. Sebab dalam sistem capitalisme Anglosaxon ini oleh sebab ketamakan banyak pihak di bank-bank yang tidak dikawal selia oleh mana-mana pihak dengan rapi. Mereka mewujudkan macam-macam produk dan tiap-tiap kali mereka mewujudkan produk mereka jual kepada orang lain. Orang lain juga akan jual kepada pihak ketiga, pihak keempat. Dan tiap-tiap orang dapat untung. Dan semua ini berasaskan kepada pinjaman dan dalam keadaan kegawatan pihak yang memberi pinjam akan tarik balik pinjaman jadi banyak liberal edging yang telah dibuat kena deliberate edging dan sebab itulah harga bursa di Amerika Syarikat di tempat-tempat lain merudum dan banyak pihak bank-bank telah jadi muflis dan yang menjadi cabaran untuk kita ialah deliberate edging ini belum habis.

Banyak lagi deliberate edging ini akan berlaku pada tahun 2009. Jadi sebab itulah di Amerika Syarikat dan di United Kingdom, di Eropah mereka beranggapan tahun 2009 akan merupakan tahun yang lebih mencabar lebih getir berbanding dengan tahun 2008 dan kadar pengangguran di Amerika Syarikat akan melebihi 800 hampir 3 juta orang akan menganggur. Dan inilah jadi satu cabaran untuk kita untuk menguruskan ekonomi kita dalam konteks kegawatan ekonomi yang begitu serius di antarabangsa. Dan tetapi kita mempunyai kekuatan kita sendiri. Sebab kita mempunyai pengalaman dalam 1986 dalam tahun 1997 dan kita boleh menggunakan pengetahuan kita, pengalaman kita pengajaran yang telah kita pelajari untuk mengatasi kemelut yang kita hadapi sekarang. Tapi yang penting sekali ialah dua perkara yang disebut oleh Datuk Salleh tadi tentang pinjaman. Kredit mesti wujud. Tanpa kredit susah untuk kita memulihkan ekonomi. Jadi kita akan meminta bank untuk terus memberi pinjaman. Yang kedua adalah pengangguran Kita mesti mengelakkan keadaan pengangguran. Dan untuk mengelakkan keadaan pengangguran kerajaan akan mewujudkan aggregate demand penggunaan aggregate melalui projek-projek yang dapat diwujudkan, dilaksanakan dengan cepat. 7 bilion itu yang kita ada beri peruntukan kepada kementerian-kementerian. Kita pilih projek-projek yang dapat dilaksanakan dengan cepat dalam 3 hingga 4, 5 bulan. Dalam 7 bilion ini kita termasuk projek-projek yang akan makan masa. Kena simpan dulu. Kita memberi penumpuan, kita fokus kepada projek-projek yang dapat mewujudkan pekerjaan, yang dapat mewujudkan aggregate demand dengan cepat. Dan saya yakin 7 bilion ini akan memberi impak yang positif dari segi keyakinan dari segi aggregate demand kepada ekonomi dan pada masa yang sama pihak-pihak lain juga harus bekerjasama pihak-pihak swasta harus mencuba sedaya-upaya untuk mengelakkan pemberhentian pekerja dan pihak-pihak bank harus memberi pinjaman dan kerajaan akan berbincang dengan pihak bank-bank dan juga dengan syarikat-syarikat dengan juga industri-industri dan gabungan-gabungan industri untuk mencari kaedah dan mekanisme untuk memberi bantuan yang lebih kalau perlu.


PERANTARA: Dan Tan Sri, kita telah menerima panggilan di talian. Kita terima dulu pemanggil. Hello siapa di sana?

PEMANGGIL : Assalamualaikum.

MENTERI : Waalaikummussalam.

PEMANGGIL: YB saya Haji Abdul Kadir bin Mat.

PERANTARA : Ok. Teruskan soalan tuan haji.

PEMANGGIL: Ini soalan saya. Saya ini dengan anak saya nak pinjam dengan bank. Saya ini orang mengempen satu Malaysia saya pergi mengempen. Jadi apakala anak saya ada mintak pinjaman dengan bank cagar sebuah rumah kedai sebanyak 150 ribu jadi sampai ke hari ini tak boleh selesai lagi. Bank Maybank Kuantan ini. Saya pun tak boleh nak pinjam dengan bank pun. Jadi apakala anak saya beritahu saya malulah. Saya terkejutlah. Pinjam 150 sampai sekarang dekat nak sebulan lebih dah tak boleh lulus. Saya mintak YB nasihatlah kepada pegawai-pegawai bank ini jangan buat naya kepada orang nak meminjam. Kalu orang nak meminjam tu tak kisahlah. Kalau orang meminjam tu besok tak bayar apa macam mana ke barulah kita ambil tindakan. Jadi saya nak cakap dengan YB ni, YB kenal saya.

PERANTARA : Kita faham tuan haji. Kita terima pemanggil kedua di talian kita.

Hello.


PEMANGGIL : Hello. Assalamualaikum. Saya Nik Zafri. Saya penganalisis bebaslah.

PERANTARA : Waalaikummussalam. Ok teruskan.

PEMANGGIL : Saya nak memberi pendapat jelah. Sebab saya sangat bersetuju dengan YB dan YB pun dah banyak cover point-point yang saya nak beritahu tadi.
Kita dah ada experience kita dan pernah outperform US dan Europe di masa-masa yang lepas dan kita buktikan, kita pernah rebound dan kita sentiasa immune kepada apa-apa saja credit impact daripada Barat. Jadi saya rasa kalau kita kekalkan rancangan yang pernah kita buat dan kembali kepada sejarah, kita pasti berjaya. Banyak negara Asia pun tidak pernah bergantung pada IMF atau World Bank dan sebagainya even China pun banyak juga kena underestimate tapi mereka menolak decoupling theory dan sebagainya. Semangat Asia kita ini sangat kuat dan kita boleh buat sendiri. We don’t need anyone to tell us what to do.

Saya rasa kita tidak boleh sangat bergantung pada forecast daripada penganalisa-penganalisa barat yang mana macam YB beritahu tadi bahawasanya ini adalah untuk tujuan spekulasi. Dan juga kita tengok dari belakang tirai banyak yang melakukan heavy hedging, forex dan sebagainya. Jadi saya memang tidak bersetuju sangatlah jika kita menerima analisa itu bulat-bulat daripada barat kerana saya lihat kita Malaysia ada kekuatan kita sendiri macam YB beritahu tadi.

Saya mempunyai pendapat yang berbeza di mana dengan yakin saya rasa Malaysia dan mungkin Singapore akan rebound lebih awal. Kita dah ada trend yang kita ini menawarkan new package kepada GLC dan MMC ini pun pun contribute kepada ekonomi on the recovery.

Dan kita boleh lihat sekarang trend spending menggunakan Euro dan USD ini akan menyebabkan higher demand for export untuk Malaysia dan Singapura. So I think it is a very-very orang kata healthy dan situation is still under control and I don’t see what's the big fuss is all about?

Cuma banking and financial institution sector ini saya tengok mereka ada wait and see what going to happen. Itu saja pendapat saya.

PERANTARA : Itu saja ya Encik Nik. Terima kasih atas pandangan tersebut. Kita bagi peluang pada pemanggil yang lain pula ya. Hah, ini ada dua ya Tan Sri. Masih lagi berbalik kepada soal pinjaman. Mungkin Tan Sri di sini boleh menjanjikan bahawa kita akan memastikan bahawa bank akan memberi. Tapi di
bawah sana pula Tan Sri lain pula ceritanya dan inilah mungkin dua perkara yang berbeza Tan Sri mungkin.

MENTERI : Ya. Satu lagi isu saya akan berbincang dengan bank untuk mengingatkan mereka tentang pentingnya mereka memberi pinjaman. Satu lagi isu yang dibangkitkan oleh saudara Nik Zafri tadi ialah tentang Cina dan India. Satu kelebihan Malaysia ialah kita dalam tahun-tahun lepas kita sudah menguruskan ekonomi kita dengan sedemikian supaya kita tidak bergantung dengan eksport. Sungguh pun eksport itu prima penting tapi hampir 70 peratus dari ekonomi kita dijana oleh penggunaan dan juga pelaburan. Penggunaan swasta sebenarnya dan pelaburan. Dan kita lihat bahawa negara-negara lain termasuk China, termasuk India yang pada tahun-tahun lepas kadar pertumbuhan melebihi 10 peratus. Tiba-tiba kita nampak sekarang kadar pertumbuhan mungkin 5, 6, 7 peratus. Dan satu pengajaran dari pengalaman dari China, India dan negara-negara lain ialah mungkin pada tahun-tahun lepas mereka bergantung sangat kepada eksport. Jadi dalam tahun-tahun mendatang negara-negara lain seharusnya mengambil tindakan seperti yang kita telah kita mengambil tindakan untuk mengurangkan kebergantungan kita kepada eksport. Khasnya eksport kepada negara-negara barat dan juga simpanan yang kita mempunyai begitu banyak China mempunyai 2 trilion US dolar simpanan, Jepun 1 trilion dan negara-negara Arab banyak simpanan. Kini simpanan itu disimpan di kebanyakan di Amerika Syarikat dalam bentuk bond dan dengan pulangan 2-3 peratus dan kita sejak tahun 1997 telah membuat satu cadangan supaya simpanan ini dilaburkan di negara-negara rantau ini dalam infrastruktur dalam
prasarana. Dan kita akan dapat pulangan yang lebih dan dalam masa yang sama kita dapat bersama-sama menjana ekonomi rantau ini pada had yang lebih dan mungkin dalam hikmat dari kemelut sekarang ialah mungkin negara-negara lain nampak kelebihan rancangan kita dulu untuk melaburkan reserve kita dalam bidang infrastruktur dalam rantau ini berbanding dengan simpan saja dalam bon di Amerika Syarikat.

PERANTARA: Itu sahaja telah jelas bahawa kita dapat menggunakan dengan sepenuhnya. Masalah sekarang ini Tan Sri bagaimana kita dapat memulihkan keyakinan khususnya bank juga tentang attitude wait and see iaitu tunggu dan lihat. Kadang-kadang sekarang ini juga terdapat bank-bank yang besar terutama di Europe telah membuang pekerja mereka dan ini membimbangkan terutamanya
di sini pun, mungkin di Asia akan mengurangkan jumlah pekerja mereka, bagaimana Tan Sri melihat isu ini untuk meyakinkan orang ramai dan gambaran
sebenar ekonomi kita tahun 2009 ini.

MENTERI : Dalam keadaan kemelut kegawatan ekonomi perkara yang menjadi sensitif sangat ialah wait and see. Setiap kali pihak swasta atau sektor-sektor tertentu mengambil pendirian wait and see, ekonomi akan turun. Inilah lumrah dalam sistem ekonomi, bila kurang keyakinan falsafahnya ialah wait and see. Jadi sebab itulah begitu pentingnya peranan kerajaan untuk memecahkan kitaran ini supaya keyakinan dapat dipulihkan melalui perbelanjaan kerajaan dan juga bantuan kerajaan kepada sector- sector tertentu supaya mereka juga dapat memperkembangkan perniagaan mereka dan yang penting sekali terus mengambil kakitangan baru dan dan tidak memberhentikan kakitangan yang wujud.


PERANTARA: Tan Sri , satu lagi ialah baru-baru ini YAB Timbalan Perdana Menteri menyatakan kemungkinan akan diperkenalkan rangsangan lagi mungkin bertambah, apakah rasionalnya Tan Sri dan adakah kemungkinan tersebut berlaku.


MENTERI : Ini sebab kerajaan mempunyai kemampuan untuk meminjam lebih dalam keadaan sekarang. Dalam tahun-tahun kebelakangan ini kita telah menguruskan kewangan kita dengan begitu rupa supaya dapat mengurangkan defisit dari 5.5 peratus pada tahun 2000 kepada 3.2 peratus tahun 2007. Jadi kita mempunyai kemampuan lebih kalau perlu. Kita tahu keadaan ekonomi begitu meruncing dan mungkin cabaran-cabaran akan bertambah dalam bulan-bulan yang akan datang. YAB Timbalan Perdana Menteri yang juga Menteri Kewangan mengarahkan pegawai-pegawai di Kementerian Kewangan supaya berfikir dan membentuk satu lagi pakej yang dapat dilaksanakan sekiranya perlu dengan cepat. Pegawai-pegawai sedang membentuk satu lagi pakej dan sedang prepared. Kita akan melakukan apa yang perlu dan kita mempunyai kemampuan untuk melaksanakan pakej rangsangan yang satu lagi. Kita memang mampu dan dalam pakej itu pun kita akan mencari projek-projek yang satu dapat dilaksanakan dengan cepat dan satu lagi akan meningkatkan kualiti pekerja kita kepada satu tahap yang lebih tinggi supaya apabila ekonomi sudah pulih kita mempunyai pekerja kualiti yang lebih tinggi berbanding dengan sekarang.


PERANTARA: Kita baca soalan sms kita yang telah dihantar oleh Mohd Rais dari Melaka minta Tan Sri pantau pegawai di Bahagian Perolehan kerajaan dari Kementerian Kewangan yang tidak faham hendak kuatkuasakan AP, PP dan ACP ini dalam Bahasa Melayu. Banyak pembaziran berlaku akibat tidak patuh peraturan kewangan, mungkin ini salah satu daripada masalah dan bagaimana Tan Sri melihatnya.

MENTERI : Yang melaksanakan projek-projek ini bukan Kementerian Kewangan. Kita memberi peruntukan dan kementerian-kementerian seperti JKR, Kementerian Pelajaran dan kementerian lain akan melaksanakan projek-projek ini.


PERANTARA: Tan Sri, bagaimana yang Tan Sri nyatakan lebih awal antara keruntuhan ekonomi di Amerika ini adalah disebabkan oleh penswastaan. Bagaimana Tan Sri melihat penswastaan di Malaysia ini, adakah kita akan terus juga mengamalkan dan penswastaan yang sebagaimana Tan Sri lihat.


MENTERI : Penswastaan itu tidak ada masalah, yang di Amerika Syarikat falsafah kapitalisme ala Anglo-Saxion ialah untuk memberi kebebasan yang terlalu tinggi kepada pihak swasta, dan kerajaan tidak diberi peranan langsung dalam sistem ekonomi, itu modal yang akan hancur dan saya yakin akan hancur. Penswastaan itu adalah elok sebab banyak peranan dan tugas kerajaan mungkin dapat dimainkan dengan lebih efisien oleh pihak swasta. Dalam falsafah kita kerajaan mempunyai peranan dalam ekonomi, dalam sistem ala Anglo-Saxion itu kerajaan tidak mempunyai peranan, tetapi yang anehnya apabila sistem sudah hancur, kerajaan memberi duit kepada bank-bank, memberi peruntukan kepada bank-bank, membeli share bank-bank dan memberi peruntukan kepada syarikat-syarikat kereta automobil, membeli share mereka. Ini tidak masuk dalam kapitalisme Anglo-Saxion kerajaan tidak boleh melibatkan diri. Semasa kita mengalami kegawatan 1997, kita diajar oleh Amerika Syarikat jangan tolong syarikat-syarikat, jangan bail out tapi apa yang berlaku sekarang bail out. Sekarang kerajaan nampaknya sudah ada peranan. Jadi kita sejak dulu kena memperingatkan negara-negara barat bahawa sistem kapitalisme Anglo- Saxion ini tidak boleh dipertahankan sebab falsafahnya salah kerana kerajaan tidak diberi peranan, tetapi di sini kerajaan masih ada peranan. Sungguh pun penswastaan itu akan terus dilakukan dan saya tidak nampak keburukan tentang penswastaan, janji kita melakukan penswastaan itu dengan saksama, adil supaya kerajaan tidak rugi dan sektor swasta tidak rugi, dua-dua untung dengan syarat kita membuat perjanjian bahawa penswastaan itu adalah kaedah yang baik.


PERANTARA : Kita dapat ikuti baru-baru ini juga kajian akan dilakukan terhadap perjanjian konsesi lebuh raya. Ini satu langkah yang begitu penting, kalau di sana mungkin tidak dibenarkan kerajaan campur tangan. Apakah lagi inisiatif mungkin dari segi penyertaan yang mana kita akan memberi tumpuan khususnya yang melibatkan orang ramai.

MENTERI : Saya berpendapat kekuatan satu bangsa itu ialah kita sedar tentang kekuatan kita dan pada masa yang sama kita menyedari kelemahan kita. Kita mengambil tindakan untuk mengatasi kelemahan kita. Jadi dalam aspek penswastaan mungkin ada kelemahan yang dilakukan pada masa-masa lampau tetapi kelebihan kita adalah kita mempelajari dan menginsafi. Kita mempelajari tentang cara penswastaan yang lebih optimum dan pada tahun-tahun akan datang dari pengajaran kita dan dari kelemahan pada tahun dulu kita akan melaksanakan sistem penswastaan dengan lebih baik dan lebih adil.

PERANTARA: Itulah harapan kita untuk dapat memastikan bahawa kita akan terus mengikut model kita dan acuan kita. Jadi apa yang penting kita perlu yakin kepada diri dan negara kita.

MENTERI: Ini ada pengajaran kita sejak tahun 1997 sebab di antara negara-negara yang mengalami kemelut kegawatan 1997 hanya Malaysia sahaja negara terulung yang dapat memulihkan ekonomi dengan menggunakan acuan kita sendiri dan dengan tidak mendapat satu sen pun pinjaman atau gran dari IMF, World Bank atau dari negara lain, satu sen pun kita tidak dapat. Kita memulihkan ekonomi dengan acuan sendiri dan dengan langkah-langkah kita sendiri yang mulanya tidak dipersetujui oleh mereka tapi akhirnya mereka menyedari dan mengakui bahawa langkah-langkah kita adalah langkah-langkah yang baik. Jadi perkara ini saya sebut sebab kalau kita dapat memulihkan ekonomi pada tahun 1997, ini memberi kita keyakinan bahawa dalam kesusahan dan cabaran yang kita akan hadapi pada tahun 2009, InsyaAllah kita dengan kerjasama rakyat dan semua pihak, kerajaan akan memastikan bahawa kita juga akan dapat mengatasi dan muncul dengan lebih kuat lagi.

PERANTARA: Saya mengucapkan ribuan terima kasih kepada YB Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop, Menteri Kewangan Kedua dan merupakan seorang yang terlibat dalam dua krisis dan ini merupakan kali yang ketiga. InsyaAllah dengan pengalaman Tan Sri dan pengalaman yang diperoleh oleh semua orang semasa mengalami kegawatan, kita perlu memberi semangat dan dorongan terutamanya para bank-bank . Ini satu lagi ingatan kita dan ingatan Tan Sri tadi supaya kita terus mengaktifkan lagi ekonomi kita. Kalau kita perhatikan tadi banyak yang kita nyatakan tentang kegagalan yang dinyatakan oleh Tan Sri tadi, itu menjadi satu iktibar kepada kita, dan InsyaAllah kita akan dapat lalui dengan doa dan kerjasama rakyat kita. Kita akan dapat atasi krisis yang melanda ini. Terima kasih kepada pemanggil kita dan kedua-dua tetamu tadi Datuk Salleh Majid dan Datuk David Chua yang bersama kita bertanya soalan dengan YB Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop. InsyaAllah kita akan bertemu lagi dalam Rancangan Dialog @ 1 di minggu depan di waktu yang sama dan dengan ini saya bagi pihak penerbit mengucapkan assalamualaikum dan salam sejahtera.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

NIK ZAFRI'S (HUMBLE) ASIA/SEA ECONOMICAL FORECAST 2009

Many have forecasted that SEA will be the first to rebound from the current economic crisis by September, 2009.

On the other hand, what saddens me most is that some even forecasted that Asian economy will fall badly in 2009 - such a pathetic statement meant to discourage us.
In the past, we have been known for the reputation of outperforming the US and Europe due to the right planning and eventually become very immune to any credit crunch from the West.

Some countries are not even depending on IMF or World Bank in 1997-1998-remember? Even China has been too much underestimated (not that I disagree but too much 'smart' speculations..come on) by these 'so-called' economic forecasters.

I have always been known as a 'reverse psychological' person. I don't believe in 'too obvious bad news' being reported meant to lure the small investors away but giving great monetary advantages to speculators.

Based on these 'unfounded fears', I feel strongly that the Asian will be one of the key players in the world economy commencing from 2009.

But of course, I have a different theory (especially for Malaysia) - I think it's earlier than that...say April, 2009?

But, I share the agreement that it is likely going to be Singapore then probably followed by Malaysia. There have been a trend of banking and financial institutions in these two neighbouring countries offering new packages to GLCs and MNCs. These efforts would probably contribute to economy recovery in 2009. There has also been a higher demand for exports from Malaysia and Singapore based on the increased spending in the Euro and US.

The banking sectors in Japan are planning to buy securities, stocks and bonds (corporate) etc - and if these plan works, it will help stabilise their financial market. The Government has announce Japan's biggest ever annual budget Y12,000bn.

China however would still have to be put under alert - to grow or not to grow. Since China are trading with other SEA countries, their ability to export surplus stocks financed on credit should be monitored. New policies to boost consumption need to be drawn up to counter this possibility. I do know that China works very-very hard lately not to be bound to 'intelligent economic comments' e.g. decoupling - and I have every confident that they will succeed.

In Indonesia, the President announce the budget of USD200 billion ++ and a 6.2% growth is expected. However, they are not too sure about the outcome of issuance of Government bonds and probably there will be a budget deficit of nearly 2% GDP. Mainly taxes will play a role for the main revenue followed by non-tax sectors. There will also be about 102 trillion rupiah for fuel subsidy.

The only biggest dillema in Indonesia is corruption - if this is not being minimized, I do not think that they can reach the target that they are hoping for. While for the good part that Indonesia has done right is their achievement of regaining self-sufficiency in rice where the production has surpassed the country's rice consumption. This has made them better in terms of food situation and probably would take them out of the current global food crisis.

For Korea, they are not too ambitious; which I find a good thing to do - be cautious. While everyone is hoping and praying for a 2009 turnaround, Korea predicted a 3% growth and the focus is mainly creating new job opportunity. They have also cut taxes here and there.

Korean consumer price is estimated to stabilize to less than 4% and there may also be decreasing service deficitit and rising goods surplus - thus making 2009 account surplus to exceed USD10 billion. I personally think that Korea should now put an effort to minimize their dependency on IMF as what they have done before in 1997.

I will keep you all updated.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS

This year’s Global Competitiveness Report is being released at a time of multiple shocks to the global economy. The subprime mortgage crisis and the ensuing credit crunch, combined with rising inflation worldwide and the consequent slowdown in demand in many advanced economies, has engendered significant uncertainty about the short-term outlook for the world economy. Global growth is slowing, and it is not yet clear when the effects of the present crisis will subside.

The financial market crisis that began in early 2007 is almost unprecedented in its impact, having resulted not only in losses in markets and for financial institutions, but also in an erosion of public confidence in the financial sector and among the institutions themselves across the industrialized world. In the meantime, rising energy and commodity prices are having a dual effect on emerging and developing economies: on the one hand, boosting growth; on the other hand creating inflationary pressures that raise the basic cost of living, thus increasing poverty levels. More generally, although the present slowdown was originally expected to be confined mainly to the United States, it is now spreading to other industrialized economies and it is not yet clear what the future will bring for emerging markets.

Policymakers are presently struggling with ways of managing these multiple shocks intelligently while preparing their economies to perform well in an economic landscape characterized by growing volatility. In an unstable global financial environment, it is more important than ever for countries to put into place the fundamentals underpinning economic growth and development.The World Economic Forum has for the past 30 years played a facilitating role in this process, by providing detailed assessments of the productive potential of nations worldwide.The Report is a contribution to enhancing our understanding of the key factors determining economic growth, and explaining why some countries are much more successful than others in raising income levels and opportunities for their respectivepopulations, offering policymakers and business leaders an important tool in the formulation of improved economic policies and institutional reforms.

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